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The shadow of drugs over the Tour de France 2007-06-23 04:25:00 The 2007 Tour de France
begins in about 2 weeks from today, and yet again, an ominous shadow is looming over the race and the sport in general.You'll see a doping alert news search down the left hand side of our blog, and unfortunately, it's been in overdrive since we started out. It seems as though every day, something new emerges from the murky underworld of the sport, and not a week goes by before another high profile cyclist either confesses or is implicated in what is becoming an increasingly messy situation.Most recent of these was Bjarne Riis, winner of the 1996 Tour de France, and the man who ended Miguel Indurain's quest for 6 consecutive titles. Riis, who rode for Telekom, admitted to doping in the following statement"The time has come to put the cards on the table," said Riis. "I have done things which I now regret and which I wouldn't do again. I have doped. I have taken EPO. For awhile it was part if my life." When a journalist questioned Riis
SA vs NZ: A scientist perspective and concern about big picture thinking 2007-06-23 02:11:00 I guess as a South African, it's almost a duty to write something on today's rugby match between the All Blacks and South Africa. Not that I feel obliged, because like any other sports fan, it is something I have a firm opinion on. I'm sure you know the score - New Zealand overturned a deficit of 9-points at one stage to win 26-21, and bring SA down to earth somewhat.The danger is getting too involved in a sport where I'm not 100% confident in my technical knowledge. And I have no doubt that by the time you read this, you'll have seen a dozen experts picking the game apart, and heard opinions from people who I am sure know the technicalities of the game far more than I do! And I'm a big believer in staying within the scope of your expertise - training, running and cycling, I know, the rest are hobbies. So I won't be another armchair fan who solves the world's problems without getting his hands dirty!However, like anyone, I have an opinion and will be the first to admit tha Read more:scientist
, thinking
Follow up on EPO - an interesting question 2007-06-22 21:56:00 So we wrote earlier today that EPO is a hormone (or a drug) that is used to stimulate the production of red blood cells.And Lei, who has a running post as well - check it out here - wrote in and asked a really interesting
question, which has stimulated a new post or two. As I gather, Lei is a medical student, who has set her sights on running a half marathon in September (way to go, Lei!), and she asked whether the effect of EPO is the same as that of altitude and if so, then why would cyclists use the drug, with all its side effects when they could get the same result from some altitude training?So as I see it, there are two very interesting and relevant posts that I could write on this one:1) The culture of cycling - why would cyclists use the drug when there are possible natural methods to achieve the same result? There are of course scientific reasons as well, which I will get into, but I really do believe the key is the culture of cycling, and in particular, the attention to
Oscar Pistorius latest news 2007-06-22 18:03:00 So about three weeks ago (June 3), we featured an article on Oscar
Pistorius, a South African double-amputee who has aspirations of running in the able-bodied Olympic Games.I wrote at the time that until it could be proven conclusively that the limbs he wears do not give him a biomechanical advantage, he should not be allowed to compete. My gut feeling, based on a few observations and physiological principles, is that the limbs do give an advantage (see the post on the 3rd of June). The problem is that for every argument one way, there is a counter argument for the other point of view. But, it's not proven either way, and so this post was basically a call for research - let's first see what the science shows and then we can decide, based on facts rather than emotive opinions.Well, it now seems as though this MIGHT happen (fingers crossed), with the IAAF announcing that they would work with Pistorius to do research on the limbs. I would be fascinated to see what they propose to do
Dr. Don Catlin's wave of the future 2007-06-27 03:18:00 As is written in the quote above, Dr. Don Catlin is a renowned expert in doping and, more importantly, catching dopers. I just read this incredible article about his career and his idea for the future of doping in sport from the July 2005 edition of Outside Magazine.If anyone knows about doping and the system of catching cheaters, it is Catlin. This is a must read for anyone interested in this topic and also for anyone interested in ever watching a clean sporting event again.
An open letter to the IAAF: Oscar Pistorius research 2007-07-02 04:58:00 To Whom It May Concern: My name is Dr Ross Tucker, I am an exercise physiologist based in the University of Cape Town's Sports Science Institute. I am writing to you out of growing concern over a situation which I am sure that you realise poses some very serious problems for you in the future (as it has in the past), and that is the issue of Oscar
Pistorius' participation in the able-bodied IAAF sanctioned meetings. Let me state first and foremost my position - I do not think that Pistorius should be allowed to compete against the able-bodied runners until it is conclusively shown that the limbs do not assist performance. It is likely we agree on the fact that research is required in order to establish whether his prosthetics are in fact an advantage or disadvantage. We are all aware of the hype and comment on this topic. However, the current angle you have taken is risky and the IAAF is in danger of putting itself in a compromised position if it accepts the responsibility Read more:open letter
The Ethiopian running dynasty: What is the secret to its success? 2007-06-30 02:48:00 About a month ago, we did a post questioning whether we were about to witness the end of the Ethiopian
era of long distance running
dominance. The jury is still out on that one, though a world record for Meseret Defar in Oslo in the 5000 m seems to suggest that even in Kenenisa Bekele is not going to continue his dominance, the women athletes will probably reign for a good few years yet.The next question is why are the Ethiopian athletes so successful? Usually, when one asks about African runners dominating in middle and long distance running, we think of the Kenyans, because there seem to be infinite numbers of them and they win just about every major marathon in the world. On the track though, it's a different story. Since 1993, Ethiopians have won all but one of the World and Olympic 10 000 m titles. The athletes in question are Haile Gebrselassie and the afore-mentioned Bekele, who now share 5 out of the last 6 world titles and all three of the Olympic titles (Trivial pursuit Read more:dynasty
SA's B-Team: Rest or no rest? A science view 2007-06-30 01:32:00 Today the All-Blacks take on the Wallabies in the third Tri-Nations test, but this week has been dominated by the build-up to the SA-Australia test next week, and the headlines have all been around the squad picked by Jake White. A veritable B-Team, which has caused an uproar in Aus and NZ, even threatening at one stage to derail the Tri-Nations altogether. But what do we at the Science of Sport make of this? Jake White has been harking in the media for the last week about how Professor Tim Noakes, sports scientist at the University of Cape Town has insisted that the players need to rest (I believe that this strategy is his "insurance policy", creating a fall guy in case it doesn't work, but that's another story altogether). So sports science has been thrust into the limelight this week, so we have to respond to this one and lay down our views.Firstly, let us nail our colours to the mast - the players do play too much rugby. A typical season would begin in January for the Super
Planet Ultramarathon blog 2007-07-07 03:55:00 We're always on the lookout for blogs that relate to what we write about, whether it be the front-end (news, events), the back-end (the science and training) or the off-the-wall humour (like Half-Fast). And this blog, Planet Ultramarathon (the name tells you everything!), is a goodie for anything ultra-marathon related. Run by Phil from the greatly named "Wagga Wagga" in Australia, it's a pretty comprehensive offering for the Ultra-Marathon world, so check it out. And Phil gave us a bit of a boost, so we're happy to return the favour!CheersR and J
Altitude training - the basics 2007-07-07 02:56:00 So I really struggle to come up with a decent post for today, felt like doing something on cycling again, now that Jorg Jaksche has admitted to doping and suggested it is pervasive in the peloton. For some classic quotes, have a look at this article. The most telling this is the reaction of the other cyclists - Jaksche has been crucified by his former collegues and competitors, and that alone is an indication of the culture in the sport - it's as if they take the Hippocratic Oath equivalent of never-tell. Just ask Floyd LandisBut, with the Tour de France coming up over the next three weeks, I figured there would be plenty of time to talk cycling, so keep an eye out for some 'behind the scenes physiology of the Tour de France in the upcoming three weeks.But for today, I thought I would go back to something that came up about 2 weeks ago, during a post on EPO use. Lei asked about altitude training, so I figured I'd do a short post on the benefits, if any, of training at altitude.
A comprehensive running link 2007-07-06 02:31:00 A while back, we did an analysis of the African and American marathon performances, and asked whether the Africans were really 'unbeatable'?While looking up some of the info for that post, I (Jonathan) came across Jim2's Running page - think running
encyclopedia meets chat forum, and you'd have a description of this blog.He covers every topic from General training, specifics of biomechanics, walking, marathon running, running surfaces - you name it.So check out Jim2's Running page for some comprehensive running information.Jonathan and Ross
Oscar Pistorius - Science and Engineering vs Training. The first and only evaluation of ALL the evidence 2007-07-10 20:46:00 A comprehensive evaluation of ALL the evidenceSo in the last few weeks, we've had quite a big response to some articles on Oscar
Pistorius. The following four key issues are what I would consider important to the argument on Oscar Pistorius’ desire to compete in the Olympic Games in 2008. I really do believe that each is critical to the argument and would respectfully suggest that no article is complete without sufficiently mentioning each one. 1. Incentive clarification Before even beginning to discuss the science of running on the prosthetic limbs, you have to clarify people’s incentives. It is critical that anyone who expresses an “educated” or scientifically formulated opinion on the limbs and their possible performance enhancing effects or lack thereof is understood in terms of their interests in the affair. We must remember that science and commerce/business are very uneasy bedfellows, and so the incentive gap between the search from truth and the Read more:Science
, Training
How not to let doping get you down - Why you should watch le Tour 2007-07-08 23:46:00 Le Tour, or the Grand Boucle, is upon us again, and, as seems only normal, with a mix of doping scandals and allegations. Many of us are no doubt depressed by this, and can become cynical and turned off by the sport. We have both heard ex-Tour Fanatics express a sense of apathy, and who can blame them? Not a single champion since 1995 has been untouched by rumour, positive tests and allegations. In fact, there isn't even a defending champion in this year's race, with last year's winner (is that Floyd Landis or Oscar Pereiro?) still being decided by a court of arbitration!Our advice is don't let this get you down, and enjoy watch
ing the next three weeks of the Tour for what it is - a test of physical endurance and strength. Here are two reasons why we should continue to watch and enjoy this year's tour and the sport of cycling. First, it is quite possible (if allegations are believed, and if it is true that when there is smoke, there is likely to be fire) that more than 70
SA vs Australia Rugby Post-mortem 2007-07-08 03:59:00 25-17. The Springbok "B" team, which it was dubbed leading up to the game, transformed into the Springbok legends for the first 10 minutes of the match (the Aussies were planning a tap-dance to explain that one), but in the end, restored to a "B" team by a Wallaby team which was clinical and professional in coming back from 17 points down after about 15 minutes.So what do we make of the game? Again, we at The Science of Sport are focused on cycling and running, and so I will be cautious about making radical claims - the last thing we need is another armchair expert! But I think that both teams will claim the moral victory from the game, and in the end, it's 80 minutes that have shown relatively little ahead of the World Cup later this year.The 'Boks will be claiming the higher ground because they scared the Wallabies with an understrength team, fought hard and could have been even closer had Hougaard kicked even two out of the three penalties that he missed. And of course, there Read more:Australia
, Rugby
Comrades marathon - some really fascinating questions 2007-07-08 03:46:00 Every once in a while, we get some absolute pearls from visitors to the blog. And this email, which we recieved yesterday evening, is an example of one. I will paraphrase Mr Alan Sleath's questions
, which we at The Science of Sport will attempt to address over the next while.Alan's questions were the following:1) At the Comrades Marathon this year, the following performances stood out:A 70-year old man, Calie Beneke, ran 8 hours 4 minutes for the 89 km!Leonid Shvetsov of Russia broke the course record by running 5 hours 21 minutes!A british double-amputee, Richard Whitehead, ran sub-10 hours on prosthetic limbs!Alan has asked us to rank these performances, based on physiology! Ouch! Can we take the 5th amendment on that one? But we'll do our best, it's an interesting challenge.2) Second question, Alan has asked us to compare the achievement of breaking 6 hours (which I think about 17 runners did this year), with the achievement of winning 25 consecutive silver medals in the
Comrades Challenge - Candidate #1: Leonid Shvetsov 2007-07-14 02:43:00 Five hours, 21 minutes for 89 km. That’s a pace of 3 minutes 36 second per km (or 5:48 per mile for our American readers). It’s a 36 minute 10-km race, run nine consecutive times! That would give a guy a place in the top 30 or so of most smaller road races, certainly around South Africa, and it’s remarkable only because it’s just so fast. But what of the physiology? Well, Shvetsov is a sub 2:10 Marathon runner, so he has a speed pedigree that can’t be questioned. So physiologically, his performance is best looked at in terms of his marathon time, and saying that to run Comrades, he has to run back-to-back marathons in 2:32, with a short 5km to finish! Now, when you have a 2:10 marathon best, running 2:32 means you’re running about 16% slower than your best pace for the same distance. And that 16% is critical. The key thing about the elite runner is not necessarily that they have a higher top speed, but that they can sustain a higher percentage of this than m Read more:Challenge
, Candidate
, Leonid
The Comrades Ultra Marathon - Greatest Performance Challenge 2007-07-14 02:41:00 Last week, we received an email from Alan, and he asked us to look at the following three performances from this year’s Comrades Marathon
: o Leonid Shvetsov of Russia broke the course record by running 5 hours 21 minutes! o A 70-year old man, Calie Beneke, ran 8 hours 4 minutes for the 89 km! o A british double-amputee, Richard Whitehead, ran sub-10 hours on prosthetic limbs! I said last week, however, that we would probably end up sitting on the fence, and stop short of ranking them, because they’re so different and can’t really be compared directly. One approach I thought of taking was to look at how the specific performance compared to a group of “matched/similar” runners. So for example, we could look at the 70-year old Calie Beneke and take his time compared to all the other 70 year olds in the race and see just how much faster he was. But the problem with this is that it’s difficult, if not impossible, to define the “normal/matched” gr Read more:Challenge
, Ultra
, Greatest
, Performance
Today sees the first big mountain stage of the Tou... 2007-07-13 17:23:00 Today sees the first big mountain stage of the Tour de France, with the riders tackling the Category 1 Col de la Colombiere, 16km at 6.8%. So far the Tour has been dominated by mass sprints and some key accidents, notably those of Andreas Kloden and Alexander Vinokourov. Both riders were among the favourites at the start of the Tour, and two days ago, both may have seen their prospects come to grief on the Tarmac of the Loire Valley. We at Science of Sport will still give a comprehensive overview of a Tour de France rider in days to come, where we’ll look at the changes that a rider’s body can expect to undergo during the three weeks of racing. We’ll also analyse just what the best riders are going physiologically in order to ride as they do. But for today, a short post on these two Astana riders and the physiology of a crash. Both will be hurting badly today. Kloden has a hairline fracture of the coccyx, which is reportedly making it difficult to stand on the ped Read more:Today
Oscar Pistorius debut: the scientific facts and implications, UPDATED 2007-07-16 22:39:00 So this weekend saw the much anticipated and much debated debut
of Oscar
Pistorius, South African Paralympic runner, in the 400m events at the Rome Golden Gala and a Sheffield Grand Prix. And unfortunately, the weather intervened in Sheffield and we perhaps did not see the best of the runner, making interpretation of the IAAF data difficult.But there was Rome, and a time good enough in the B-race to gain second place, finishing in 46.90, which is about half a second off his PB. And the IAAF did analyse this race, with some fascinating results. They have been released to the media, and members of the IAAF have been giving interviews and explaining their results, so this is hardly an exclusive peek at their findings.But I have also got some of these facts
at my disposal, together with some other really interesting data from other 400 m races and they do shed some light on what may be happening. Note that this is not all the research that will be done, and nor is it even a comprehensive d
A great running blog with science facts, from someone who knows 2007-07-15 22:35:00 About three years ago, I was attending a Sports Medicine and Science Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, and had dinner with a fairly large group, among whom was a certain Amby Burfoot. Of course, I had heard of Amby, since he won the Boston Marathon in 1957. He then went on to become the Executive Editor of Runner's World USA, which was the background to our meeting in Nashville.Amby has always been a 'cutting edge' writer, and keen to find out the latest research and science, as applied to running
. So we had dinner that night, and he spoke mostly to a colleague about her research on fluid replacement and a condition called hyponatremia, which develops if you drink too much water or sports drink (we'll do a post on that some day).But to show you the small world of running and especially science in running, Amby has just given the Science of Sport blog a nice reference in an online "column" that he runs, called Peak Performance. He seems to scour the world of research and come Read more:facts
Bumper week for South African Sports! 2007-07-19 03:17:00 As is normally the case in the sporting world, there are too many events to count and always keep tabs on. And when our interests are as wide and deep as ours here at the Science of Sport, sometimes things slip under the radar as we cannot cover all sports all the time. However, we will always recognize SouthAfrican
sporting achievements, and this week was quite something for SA sports.The world championships of sailing (ISAF Worlds) has just wrapped up in Cascais, Portugal. It was a multi-faceted event with different types of boats sailing against only each other, that is, boats competed within their classes. It is a big deal because although each class has its own world champs each year, the ISAF Worlds are held only every four years, so it is kind of the Olympics of sailing where the best of the best compete against one another. South Africa had several entries, and what follows are the details of all of them.In the women's double-handed dinghy class (470's), Dale Rae and T Read more:Bumper
, Sports
Midway analysis of the Tour Continued - Vinokourov's chances 2007-07-18 04:47:00 We did a post on the science analysis of the Tour so far, but steered clear of analysing the fate of the pre-race favourite, Vinokourov. But, what do we make of Vinokourov, and his team-mate Kloden? On Saturday, we did a post that predicted that they would have to hang on in the Alps, limit their losses. This was mainly because of the systemic, 'whole body' response to their accidents, that would leave them feeling weak. Kloden managed, apart from team orders which forced him to wait on the climb up to Tignes (how vital might that minute be in the end?) Vino was not so lucky - he has lost minutes and with it, likely the Tour (I would say he's lost the Tour, but we all remember Landis last year, right?).I was interested to hear that Vino was sick yesterday. In our post on Saturday, we actually said that flu-like symptoms could develop after a crash. Not that we're claiming that this was to blame (or that we're clairvoyant!) but I do suspect that the demand on his body to:a) Hea Read more:Midway
, chances
The Tour de France: midway science overview 2007-07-17 23:11:00 Ok, so it's not entirely mid-way, but I thought that with the current 'lull' in proceedings between the Alps, which ended yesterday, and the first individual time-trial and Pyrenees coming up on the weekend, it would be a good chance to cast a 'physiological' eye over the race and give some impressions.It's been a frantic few days of racing. It's quite evident that we are watching one of the most wide-open Tours in recent times. The same was said about last year's race, but this is something else. On Saturday, Sunday and yesterday, all the Alps stages, at least four or five different riders all launched multiple attacks - gone are the days of one definitive attack from an Armstrong or Pantani and the group was split - this is real racing. It's interesting to speculate on the physiological basis for this. A big factor is the absence of a strong, dominant team, riding hard tempo to the bottom of the climbs. In the past, this has allowed Armstrong to put his opponents into Read more:France
Oscar Pistorius debut: the scientific facts and implications, UPDATED 2007-07-16 22:39:00 So this weekend saw the much anticipated and much debated debut
of Oscar
Pistorius, South African Paralympic runner, in the 400m events at the Rome Golden Gala and a Sheffield Grand Prix. And unfortunately, the weather intervened in Sheffield and we perhaps did not see the best of the runner, making interpretation of the IAAF data difficult.But there was Rome, and a time good enough in the B-race to gain second place, finishing in 46.90, which is about half a second off his PB. And the IAAF did analyse this race, with some fascinating results. Some of these results were published in the Sunday papers, and members of the IAAF have been giving interviews and explaining their results. In one of the local papers down here in SA, they actually reported some of the results from the IAAF analysis in Rome, and so using those facts
, and together with some other really interesting data from other 400 m races, thought it might be interesting to do a post to investigate the theories.Note that thi
A great running blog with science facts, from someone who knows 2007-07-15 22:35:00 About three years ago, I was attending a Sports Medicine and Science Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, and had dinner with a fairly large group, among whom was a certain Amby Burfoot. Of course, I had heard of Amby, since he won the Boston Marathon in 1968. He then went on to become the Executive Editor of Runner's World USA, which was the background to our meeting in Nashville.Amby has always been a 'cutting edge' writer, and keen to find out the latest research and science, as applied to running
. So we had dinner that night, and he spoke mostly to a colleague about her research on fluid replacement and a condition called hyponatremia, which develops if you drink too much water or sports drink (we'll do a post on that some day).But to show you the small world of running and especially science in running, Amby has just given the Science of Sport blog a nice reference in an online "column" that he runs, called Peak Performance. He seems to scour the world of research and come up w Read more:facts
Comrades Challenge - Candidate #1: Leonid Shvetsov 2007-07-14 02:43:00 Five hours, 21 minutes for 89 km. That’s a pace of 3 minutes 36 second per km (or 5:48 per mile for our American readers). It’s a 36 minute 10-km race, run nine consecutive times! That would give a guy a place in the top 30 or so of most smaller road races, certainly around South Africa, and it’s remarkable only because it’s just so fast. But what of the physiology? Well, Shvetsov is a sub 2:10 Marathon runner, so he has a speed pedigree that can’t be questioned. So physiologically, his performance is best looked at in terms of his marathon time, and saying that to run Comrades, he has to run back-to-back marathons in 2:32, with a short 5km to finish! Now, when you have a 2:10 marathon best, running 2:32 means you’re running about 16% slower than your best pace for the same distance. And that 16% is critical. The key thing about the elite runner is not necessarily that they have a higher top speed, but that they can sustain a higher percentage of this than m Read more:Challenge
, Candidate
, Leonid
The Comrades Ultra Marathon - Greatest Performance Challenge 2007-07-14 02:41:00 Last week, we received an email from Alan, and he asked us to look at the following three performances from this year’s Comrades Marathon
: o Leonid Shvetsov of Russia broke the course record by running 5 hours 21 minutes! o A 70-year old man, Calie Beneke, ran 8 hours 4 minutes for the 89 km! o A british double-amputee, Richard Whitehead, ran sub-10 hours on prosthetic limbs! I said last week, however, that we would probably end up sitting on the fence, and stop short of ranking them, because they’re so different and can’t really be compared directly. One approach I thought of taking was to look at how the specific performance compared to a group of “matched/similar” runners. So for example, we could look at the 70-year old Calie Beneke and take his time compared to all the other 70 year olds in the race and see just how much faster he was. But the problem with this is that it’s difficult, if not impossible, to define the “normal/matched” gr Read more:Challenge
, Ultra
, Greatest
, Performance
Vino and Kloden - the physiology of a bike accident 2007-07-13 17:23:00 Today sees the first big mountain stage of the Tour de France, with the riders tackling the Category 1 Col de la Colombiere, 16km at 6.8%. So far the Tour has been dominated by mass sprints and some key accident
s, notably those of Andreas Kloden and Alexander Vinokourov. Both riders were among the favourites at the start of the Tour, and two days ago, both may have seen their prospects come to grief on the Tarmac of the Loire Valley. We at Science of Sport will still give a comprehensive overview of a Tour de France rider in days to come, where we’ll look at the changes that a rider’s body can expect to undergo during the three weeks of racing. We’ll also analyse just what the best riders are going physiologically in order to ride as they do. But for today, a short post on these two Astana riders and the physiology of a crash. Both will be hurting badly today. Kloden has a hairline fracture of the coccyx, which is reportedly making it difficult to stand on the ped
Oscar Pistorius - Science and Engineering vs Training. The first and only evaluation of ALL the evidence 2007-07-10 20:46:00 So over the last month or so, we've had quite a big response to some articles written about Paralympic sprinter Oscar
Pistorius. He is bidding to be allowed to run in the Beijing Olympics in 2008 for able-bodied athletes. We've carried a series of articles looking at the scientific merits of the case - there is a possibility that the Cheetah prosthetic limb gives him an advantage, and we wanted to look at the possible basis for this.So last night, I was interviewed on an SABC show on the topic. It wasn't too bad, but I certainly felt that not all the cards were laid on the table. My perception of the media and this story so far is that it is actively being moved away from the science at every opportunity. And so hostile and aggressive responses are initiated every time anyone suggests that it may in fact be unfair to allow Pistorius to run. So what I realised last night is that no one is talking here. Science
is saying one thing, but Pistorius is not directly addressing these concer Read more:Training
How not to let doping get you down - Why you should watch le Tour 2007-07-08 23:46:00 Le Tour, or the Grand Boucle, is upon us again, and, as seems only normal, with a mix of doping scandals and allegations. Many of us are no doubt depressed by this, and can become cynical and turned off by the sport. We have both heard ex-Tour Fanatics express a sense of apathy, and who can blame them? Not a single champion since 1995 has been untouched by rumour, positive tests and allegations. In fact, there isn't even a defending champion in this year's race, with last year's winner (is that Floyd Landis or Oscar Pereiro?) still being decided by a court of arbitration!Our advice is don't let this get you down, and enjoy watch
ing the next three weeks of the Tour for what it is - a test of physical endurance and strength. Here are two reasons why we should continue to watch and enjoy this year's tour and the sport of cycling. First, it is quite possible (if allegations are believed, and if it is true that when there is smoke, there is likely to be fire) that more than 70%