Owner: Coldheartedtruth URL:http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/ Join Date: Mon, 28 Aug 2006 13:29:46 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: A group blog with over 650 members, Coldheartedtruth is also a top projection and political blog.
We follow polls, project on political races (50 out of 51 in 2004)... and give our coldhearted opinion on the news, elections, and politics. Site statistics:Click here
CQ Rates House Members on Support for Bush 2006-10-23 02:08:17 CQ has posted a preliminary list showing how frequently House
members supported President Bush during roll-call votes this year. The list is preliminary because Congress will return after the election to deal with all the pending legislation and budget authorizations it didn't get to before taking an early recess for the election (that should be a fun session if the Democrats win control of Congress this year). Members
' percentages from last year are also shown. This list shows only how members voted on the 35 (of 515) votes this year where Bush had taken a clear position, although CQ doesn't provide a list of what those votes were for.
Overall, individual House members' votes supported Bush 60% of the time in 2006, up from 56% last year. Republicans supported Bush 88% of the time on votes this year, up from 83% last year, while Democrats supported Bush 29% of the time this year, up from 24% last year. 76% of House members supported Bush more frequently in 2006 than 2005, whi Read more:Rates
, Support
Embryonic Stem Cell Quackery Could Cause Cancer 2006-10-23 01:54:43 It looks like embryonic stem cell treatments--just like laudanum, radium, "vitamin" B17, and all the other snake oil miracle cures that came before them--could actually be harmful, according to a new study:
Injecting human embryonic stem cells into the brains of Parkinson's disease patients may cause tumors to form, U.S. researchers reported on Sunday.
Steven Goldman and colleagues at the University of Rochester Medical Center in New York said human stem cells injected into rat brains turned into cells that looked like early tumors.
Stem cells might cause brain tumors, study finds
It's too bad they had to destroy embryos just to figure out what the opponents of this pseudoscience have been saying all along--that embryonic stem cell research is not the promising field that its grant-hungry supporters claim it is.
Read more:Embryonic
, Cause
, Cancer
Senate Races Overview 2006-10-22 20:00:09
There's only one change since last week - Ohio moving from Slight Lean Democrat to Leans Democrat - and the current seat tally is the same as it was last week. If these trends hold there would be 49 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 2 Independents who would likely caucus with the Democrats, and 2 Election Day nail-biters which will determine control of the Senate
.
Read more:Races
, Overview
NM-01: Madrid by 3 2006-10-22 19:47:40 The Albuquerque Journal today published results of their third (and likely final) survey of the NM-01 race which show Patricia Madrid
leading Heather Wilson by 3 points. This survey of 503 likely voters was conducted by Research and Polling, Inc. from October 17-19 and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.
45% Madrid (D)
42% Wilson (R) (Inc.)
Barring a major gaffe by Madrid in the final two weeks, I believe this race is now hers to win. Wilson's suport has dropped in each of Research and Polling's polls, although that could simply be statistical variation as the numbers today are the reverse of what they were in the first poll. There have also been three other polls out this month - with fewer undecideds - each showing Madrid with a lead of 8 or more points.
But more importantly, Wilson simply hasn't provided voters with a reason to vote for her this cycle, which is critical for a Republican in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans. There's no question that negati
New NJ Poll from Monmouth 2006-10-22 19:15:52 The results of the lates Monmouth University survey of the New Jersey Senate race were reported today and show Bob Menendez with a 9-point leads over Tom Kean Jr. The survey of 396 LV was conducted October 16-19 and has a margin of error of +/-5%.
48% Menendez (D) (Inc.)
39% Kean (R)
Only two other polls on this race have showed either candidate with a 9-point lead (one was the Zogby/Reuters poll early this month which had Menendez up 11; the other was an FDU January poll where Kean led by 11). Last month Monmouth had Kean up by 6 - the largest reported Kean lead during the period in August and September when Kean was generally ahead in the polls. I bring up those other polls because my first impression is that this poll is a bit of an outlier. However, noone's surveyed this race in more than a week, so maybe they've caught some movement. New Jersey has a reputation for (1) breaking late and (2) breaking Democratic so this is the type of result you'd expect to see if trad
Saturday Poll Update 2006-10-21 19:06:48 The election must be getting close if House polls are coming out on Saturday
s now.
Illinois (Chicago Tribune, Octover 14-18, 600 LV, MoE +/-4%)
IL-06
43% Peter Roskam (R)
39% Tammy Duckworth (D)
IL-08
50% Melissa Bean (D) (Inc.)
31% David McSweeney (R)
4% Bill Scheurer (3rd party)
Sorry, no link, as accessing the story requires registration with the Tribune. If you really want to see the story I suggest following the link from this story.
The IL-06 race is still very competitive, but Duckworth's political inexperience may be beginning to show in these results. Despite outraising Roskam by $400K, her expenditures through September are nearly three times those of Roskam's, leaving Roskam with more than 7 times as much cash as October began. As a result, national Democratic campaign committees are stepping in to assist down the stretch - the DCCC committed $750,000 to this race just this week.
The level of interest in the IL-08 race has dropped a lot over the past month Read more:Update
Latest House Polling Chart 2006-10-21 02:09:59
The chart shows the result from the latest independent House
poll for each race or, for races where more than one poll was completed the same week that the most recent poll, the average of those polls. Some of the results look wacky as a result (e.g. there's no way that either Massa leads by 12 in NY-29 or Whalen leads by 13 in IA-01) but that's a drawback to showing only the most recent polls.
Coldheart and I have been discussing putting a copy of the poll tracking spreadsheet up so everyone here can view the polling history of all the 68 races at any time, and are going to try and upload the current spreadsheet (currently with 254 polls) over the weekend. If that goes smoothly the spreadsheet should be available by Monday. The plan would then be to update the online spreadsheet with the current data each weekend until Election Day.
Below is the weekly summary of the latest polling for the 24(!!) races which are in the "No Clear Leader" category.
Read more:Polling
, Chart
MI-Gov: October Update 2006-10-21 00:54:39 There have been a number of polls released on the Michigan governor's race in the past 6 weeks, and except for the first two polls in that period all show Jennifer Granholm with at least a 5-point lead over Dick DeVos.
Survey USA (September 15-17, 749 LV, MoE +/-3.7%)
47% Granholm (D) (Inc.)
47% DeVos (R)
2% Campbell (G)
1% Creswell (L)
1% Dashairya (UST)
Strategic Vision (R) (September 15-17, 1200 LV, MoE +/-3%)
47% Granholm (D) (Inc.)
46% DeVos (R)
Epic-MRA/Detroit News (October
3-4, 600 LV, MoE +/-4%)
46% Granholm (D) (Inc.)
40% DeVos (R)
1% Campbell (G)
1% Creswell (L)
Rasmussen (October 4, 500 LV, MoE +/-4.5%)
52% Granholm (D) (Inc.)
44% DeVos (R)
Survey USA (October 6-8, 772 LV, MoE +/-3.6%)
50% Granholm (D) (Inc.)
45% DeVos (R)
1% Campbell (G)
1% Creswell (L)
1% Dashairya (UST)
Selzer & Co./Detroit Free Press (October 8-11, 643 LV, MoE +/-3.9%)
49% Granholm (D) (Inc.)
41% DeVos (R)
Epic-MRA/Detroit News (October 10-12, 608 LV, MoE +/-4%)
51% Gra Read more:Update
WI-Gov: October Update 2006-10-21 00:06:26 There's been a fresh round of polling released this month on the Wisconsin governor's race, and since all three of the outfits who polled this race last month have completed their October
survey it's worth making an update on this race, which may prove to be the closest governor's race involving an incumbent this cycle once the votes get counted.
Wisconsin Policy Research Institute (September 20-21, 600 LV, MoE +/-4%)
45% Doyle (D) (Inc.)
40% Green (R)
Research 2000 (October 2-4, 600 LV, MoE +/-4%)
48% Doyle (D) (Inc.)
42% Green (R)
1% Eisman (G)
Strategic Vision (R) (October 6-8, 800 LV, MoE +/-3%)
46% Doyle (D) (Inc.)
43% Green (R)
Abacus Associates (D) (October 9-12, 708 LV, MoE +/-3.7%)
47% Doyle (D) (Inc.)
41% Green (R)
3% Eisman (G)
Public Opinion Strategies (R) (October 10-12, 600 LV, MoE +/-4%)
42% Doyle (D) (Inc.)
40% Green (R)
Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College (October 9-16, 400 LV, MoE +/-5%)
51% Doyle (D) (Inc.)
38% Green (R)
1% Eisman (G) Read more:Update
Remember... Donations are always welcome! 2006-10-20 21:23:03 Yeah... I could be like Tom over at election predictions and tell everyone that my site will go dark if I don't raise $300.00 in the next week, but that is not really the case. But I figure if Tom over at election predictions is worth 42 donations for several hundred dollars in just the past month or so that CHT is worthy of at least 10% of that or at least 4.2 donations and several dozen dollars. Certainly at least a handfull of people out there have enjoyed what we do.
In the past pretty much 100% of all donations and advertising has been used to keep the website afloat and to have cash on hand to buy premium polling packages, polling features, and other perks for the site. In 2004 CHT raised about $300 in donations that helped keep things flowing in the 'offseason' but so far in 2006 CHT has raised exactly $20.00 in donations. Yeah, the advertising is better now, I havn't really pushed for any donations, and this is supposedly a labor of love... but come about Thanksgiving the Read more:Remember
, Donations
, always
a bit more on IN-07 2006-10-20 18:59:07 WTHR People's Agenda Poll
Seventh District Congressional Race IN-07
If the election for the U. S. House of Representatives were held today, and the candidates were Eric Dickerson for the Republicans and Julia Carson for the Democrats, for whom would you vote?
Eric Dickerson 45 %
Julia Carson 42 %
Someone else/would not vote (VOL) 4 %
Not sure 9 %
Interesting that a GOP congressional candidate would be polling ahead of a Democrat... however in this same poll you see
Marion County Prosecutor's Race
If the election for county prosecutor were held today, and the candidates were Melina Kennedy for the Democrats and Carl Brizzi for the Republicans, for whom would you vote?
Melina Kennedy 35 %
Carl Brizzi 51 %
Someone else/would not vote (VOL) 2 %
Not sure 12 %
and
Which of the following
Morning Poll Update 2006-10-20 18:42:56 There are two fresh House polls that have come to my attention this morning, including one showing a Republican challenger leading a Democratic incumbent.
IN-07 (Selzer & Co., October 16-18, 468 LV. MoE +/-4.6%)
45% Eric Dickerson (R)
42% Julia Carson (D) (Inc.)
That's Eric Dickerson the car dealership owner, not Eric Dickerson the NFL running back, but as a commenter noted in a response to the September poll a lot of people don't know that. This is a race that's been off everyone's radar screens - at least outside of Marion County - and neither candidate has been benefiting from national party expenditures. That may change now. This race has been added to the tracking spreadsheet and will be on the next chart update.
CT-02 (University of Connecticut, October 12-18, 774 LV, MoE +/-3.5%)
46% Rob Simmons (R) (Inc.)
44% Joe Courtney (D)
Read more:Update
, Morning
Anyone else notice... 2006-10-20 16:54:55 the large number of unnamed GOP strategists that suddenly feel the need to purge their souls by talking to the Washington Post or N.Y. Times about how poor the GOP chances are this election cycle?
One has to wonder if Dick Morris can be actually called a GOP strategist?
Read more:Anyone
, notice
New Republican Ad will warn of more terror 2006-10-20 15:58:56 A new GOP national ad is set to hit the airwaves reminding Americans that Osama Bin Laden and other terrorists are still out there plotting and planning their next attacks. The ad is called "The Stakes" and it will end with the simple message to Vote on November 7th.
Some of the GOP critics have argued that recent polling showing the Democrats pulling even or even ahead in generic questions about fighting terror makes this ad ineffective. But one of the things that the Republican
s have done a much better job than the Democrats have is identifying which issues will move their own voter base.
You see Democrats have always been the party who wants to please most of the people most of the time and love to watch generic polls measuring their popularity to grade how they are doing their own jobs. Republicans realize that there are core issues where the majority of the nation might disagree with them, but where their own core supporters are diehards on the issue. Abortion is one of those is
Chaffee closing? 2006-10-20 14:53:57 Lincoln Chafee was within four points of the challenger Sheldon Whitehouse in the great state of Rhode Island. Of course the incumbent is still only polling at 42% and there are a lot of undecideds to convince. Still a likely pickup for the Democrats, but this can't be a real comforting poll for Whitehouse, as many believed that this one was all but done. He needs to get into that 48-49 percent range pretty soon here.
Read more:closing
Congressional polling spreadsheets 2006-10-23 14:03:53 Available now is the very first Congressional
polling spreadsheet created by Indy Voter. Also available is the Senate polling spreadsheet created by your's truly.
I will also add a link to the 2006 Election page sidebar for these spread sheets.
Where's the money advantage? 2006-10-23 16:12:23 So... I have heard some chiming from the left that the GOP does not have 'enough' of a money advantage down the stretch to make the difference. Usually (it is argued) the GOP has this tremendous money advantage, but this year (it is argued) the Democrats have closed the gap. Well that may or may not be entirely true. The money advantage has been there in the past for the GOP and it is still here this year to some degree. But the idea that it used to be 3-1 and now is only 5-4 is probably not really all that accurate. More to the point, this really isn't even the key issue anymore. The real good news for the Republicans and the bigger worry for the Democrats is hard-core campaign season provides the GOP and their candidates to compete for the message. The reality is that for the first time since shortly after Bush was reelected in 2004, the message from the Republican party will be heard on at least an equal basis with the message from the Democratic party.
There is a couple of po
My own take on the House Part 1 (18-32) 2006-10-23 17:27:12 I went through what RCP considered the top 32 vulnerable GOP congressional seats. Here is what I found looking at 18-32:
From 22-32 there are five races (Kentucky 04, Virgina 02, Washington 08, Ohio 02, Connecticut 02) that showed independent pollsters at one time tracking the Democrat in the lead. Kentucky 04 had a SUSA poll that was replaced by another SUSA poll showing the GOP candidate back in the lead. Virgina 02 showed Majority Watch and Reuters with a lead for the Democrat. However the Majority Watch poll had been replaced with a newer one showing the GOP candidate back in front. Washington 08 had an August Majority Watch poll showing the Democrat in front but was replaced by an October MW poll showing the Republican ahead. Ohio 02 also had one poll (guess who?) Majority Watch showing the Democrat in the lead. Connecticut 02 was the same thing, with the MW in August showing a slight lead for the Democrat. In most of these races, there were several other independent pollsters tr Read more:House
My own take on the House Part II (11-17) 2006-10-23 22:00:45 17 NM-01: This is a race where Patricia Madrid has overtaken incumbent Heather Wilson by some sort of storm. Up until October, Wilson had been leading this race by a small margin. But since that time, Madrid has taken control and has lead the past three independent polls by 8, 8, and 10. The most recent SUSA poll has shown a 13 point swing in favor Madrid. That being said, Wilson has a significant money advantage down the stretch and nothing to lose. Still in play, but Madrid is definitely favored to win this seat giving the Democrats their first real solid pick up.
16 IN-09: Not alot of polling done here, but Democratic Challenger Baron Hill seems to be getting the better of incumbent Mike Sodrel. The latest poll from SUSA shows Hill up two over Sodrel. Other polls (including Majority Watch) have shown Hill up by bigger margins. This is the rubber match between the two candidates as they have run against each other in the past three elections now. Each has won once before. Given the Read more:House
Mason-Dixon: Allen by 4 2006-10-24 03:39:59 A new Mason
-Dixon
poll shows George Allen
leading James Webb in the Virginia senate race by just 4 points. The survey of 625 registered voters, conducted October 17-19, has a margin of error of +/-4%.
47% Allen (R) (Inc.)
43% Webb (D)
2% Parker (IG)
This result is right on the boundary between the Slight Lean Republican and Leans Republican categories, and with the previous two polls also having margins below the margin of error I'm tempted to move this race to Slight Lean Republican. However, since this poll is an RV poll I've decided to wait for a more definitive poll - either clearly less than the MoE or at least composed of LVs - before moving the race.
Monday House Update 2006-10-24 03:14:32
There are several new independent House
polls today, plus two partisan (D) polls, but with three new polls reported Saturday and one Sunday - all for races being tracked - there's been a lot of new data on key races since Friday. Also, I realized over the weekend that MN-06 was in the wrong column: there were actually 3 separate polls completed in the same week that needed to be averaged, not 2 polls, and that third poll brings the average down to D +3.3.
There's also some news items at the end of the post.
IN-07 (Research 2000, October 17-20, 400 LV, MoE +/-5%)
48% Julia Carson (D) (Inc.)
43% Eric Dickerson (R)
Supporting what last week's Selzer & Co. release said: this race is very competitive.
IN-09 (Survey USA, October 20-22, 519 LV, MoE +/-4.4%)
47% Baron Hill (D)
43% Mike Sodrel (R) (Inc.)
5% Eric Schansberg (L)
Schansberg has gained 3 points since the first SUSA survey, an increase which is close to double the MoE for such a low level of support. If Read more:Update
, Monday
Congressional Spreadsheets will be updated 2006-10-24 15:45:08 hopefully daily... at least through weekdays when things are hopping.
The hyperlink is available on the 2006 Election page your you can simply book mark the two spreadsheets:
http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/senate.html
http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/congress.html
Read more:Congressional
, Spreadsheets
Chaffee way down 2006-10-24 14:47:41 Lincoln Chaffee has all but dropped out of contention in Rhode Island where challenger Sheldon Whitehouse is now leading the incumbent by a 52-44 margin in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll (when leaners are added). Not a good sign for Mr Chaffee.
There are other polls showing this race much closer, but nothing showing Chaffee in the lead or even tied.
McClatchy-MSNBC polls 2006-10-24 14:43:05 A new round of McClatchy-MSNBC
polls (Mason-Dixon) polls came out today suggesting that the Republicans would hold the Senate. The results of the Virginia race have been reported. Here are the rest:
Missouri - thru Oct 19th
McCaskill - 46%
Talent - 43%
Montana - thru Oct 19th
Tester - 46%
Burns - 43%
New Jersey - thru Oct 21st
Menendez - 45%
Kean 0- 42%
Ohio - thru Oct 20th
Brown - 48%
DeWine - 40%
Pennsylvania - thru Oct 21st
Casey - 51%
Santorum - 39%
Rhode Island - thru Oct 20th
Whitehouse - 48%
Chaffee - 43%
Tennessee - thru Oct 20th
Corker - 45%
Ford - 43%
Washington - thru Oct 19th
Cantwell - 52%
McGavick - 37%
This has all been update on the new Senate Spreadsheet.
My own take on the House Part III (1-10) 2006-10-24 17:58:29 Now one would think that with the tidal wave of Democratic momentum that there would be no need to actually run down these races. I should simply say that these top ten races are in the bag pickups...
But are they?
10 NY-24 - one of those 'open seats' where the Democrats hope to swoop in and take control. This one has seen limited polling... a partisan Dem poll showing the Democrat up 4%, a partisan Republican showing the Republican up 11%, and a Majority Watch poll showing the Democrat getting all possible votes? Anyways, we have Ray Meier from the right and Mike Arcuri from the left going head to head. This was a marginal Bush district in 2004 and the GOP congressman who held the seat won two years ago by a 23 point margin. Money appears to be about even and both national parties believe this is their race to lose. Could go either way.
9 PN-07 - Incumbent Curt Weldon is considered vulnerable in this seat and Democratic challenger Joe Sestak hopes to take advantage. Pennsylvania Read more:House
An interesting read... 2006-10-24 20:56:20 Survivor!
The GOP Victory
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.
Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years. Look at House races back to 1972 and you'll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that's closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable.
A couple of things come to mind when I read this article. First and foremost is the number of 'u Read more:interesting
Ford - from five up to two down... 2006-10-24 20:23:05 The latest Rasmussen poll shows Bob Corker now leading Harold Ford 49-47 in the Tennessee Senate race. This is a seven point swing from a poll taken earlier this month. As I anticipated, the money advantage for Corker seems to be taking it's toll and the normally conservative Tennessee electorate is losing some faith in the conservative Democrat.
One thing to watch in campaigns is the behavior of the candidates. Last week Harold Ford crashed a Bob Corker press conference and attempted to disrupt the event and take Corker off message. It did not work and Ford ended up looking a bit like a school yard bully trying to pick a fight. This is not the act of a candidate who's internal polls tell him he is cruising along. This is the act of a candidate who's internal polls tell him he needs to do something drastic to change the atmosphere.
I think momentum has shifted here and I look for some more polling confirming the last two polls showing Corker back ahead.
Dick Morris changes his mind... 2006-10-24 22:25:03 again!
'06 ELEX: BACK TO TOSS-UP
The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.
With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look possible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.
This guy has more mood swings than a house full of women with PMS. Read more:Morris
, changes
, Dick Morris
SUSA: Talent by 3 2006-10-25 02:05:42 Survey USA today released their most recent survey of the Missouri senate race which show Jim Talent
with a 3-point lead over Claire McCaskill. Their survey of 630 likely voters was conducted October 21-23 and has a margin of error of +/-4%.
48% Talent (R) (Inc.)
45% McCaskill (D)
2% Gilmour (L)
In their news release SUSA notes that Talent's level of support increased over each day of the survey, from a 1-point deficit on day 1 to a 7-point advantage on day 3. They offer a number of possible reasons for this, including a negative reaction to Michael J. Fox's ads in support of stem cell research, Talent's aggressiveness in the most recent candidate debate, and an increase in Republican ads on the state's airwaves.
SUSA also surveyed support for the Stem Cell Initiative, a proposed constitutional amendment, and found that since their last survey (October 9-11) support had dropped 12% while opposition had increased by 9%, and speculates that this change may also reflect on s
TX-Gov: Perry Still Leads the Pack 2006-10-25 01:37:56 Survey USA today released the results of their latest survey of the Texas governor race which show Rick Perry
maintaining a 10-point lead over his nearest rival, Democrat Chris Bell. The survey of 532 likely voters was conducted October 21-23 and has a margin of error of +/-4.3%.
36% Perry (R) (Inc.)
26% Bell (D)
19% Strayhorn (I)
16% Friedman (I)
The 10-point lead is the smallest that's been reported in any survey to date in this race, and Bell is the first of Perry's challengers to crack the 25% barrier in any poll. However, the margin is still more than twice the sample's margin of error, so I think Perry's still in good shape for reelection. Also, SUSA differs from other firms polling this race in that the other firms have consistently been reporting Strayhorn as the runner-up. SUSA's had Bell second - tied with Friedman once - in their last two polls.
Read more:Leads
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