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What will it take to bring down the Yen carry trade?
2007-06-13 10:02:43
The Yen carry trade truly is a bizarre creature. The carry is really a play on the Ministry of Finance/Bank of Japan’s assiduous care in keeping the Yen/Dollar relationship fairly stable and rate spreads. Low rates in Japan allow speculators to borrow on an absurd scale in Japan in invest in higher yielding assets abroad [...]


Blogging the Buzz - Why the method of blogging about popular topics will not meet with success
2007-06-12 10:23:05
Some time in early Autumn 2006, I had an idea that I thought would be an instant success story–I would check Yahoo! Buzz and Google Trends to find the hottest search terms and then blog about those to capture a piece of the traffic generated by the buzz. It seemed like a no-brainer to me [...]
Read more: method , popular , topics

What is “piggybacking” and what are its implications for borrowers and lenders?
2007-06-11 09:28:38
I’m not talking about giving that special lady a ride around the amusement park when she suddenly decides that wearing flip-flops wasn’t a good idea. I’m talking about the practice of enhancing one’s credit score by paying to be added as an authorized account on the credit card of a person with a high FICO [...]
Read more: ldquo , rdquo

A Dow Jones Industrial Average collapse could usher in a stronger Yen and kill the Yen carry trade
2007-06-10 14:14:03
Foreign exchange markets are well outside of my circle of confidence—it’s like voodoo to me. Other than the certainty of a U.S. dollar collapse in the long term, I don’t know how to value currencies like stocks. Because of this, take this post as a pointer to an interesting phenomenon, not investment advice or ideas. In [...]
Read more: Industrial , Average , stronger , Dow Jones

An investment idea that is under the radar - flipping web sites
2007-06-09 11:03:01
I’ve been toying with the idea of featuring a web site that I regularly visit once every week. The only problem that I see with this is that I could run out of web sites very quickly. This week, I want to take a look at an interesting web site that posits a non-traditional investing [...]
Read more: investment

New (relatively) incoming links
2007-06-09 11:02:47
This is just a shout-out to two new sites that have linked to me. I have been visiting several blogs in which people talk about their personal finances. Most of the personal finance blogs are journals in which people list their financial status (i.e., they list their assets, liabilities, and expenses) or write about their [...]
Read more: incoming , links

The mirage of wealth—How Americans’ credit-acquired “stuff” only makes them feel rich
2007-06-08 12:07:41
Pop quiz! If you have a BMW M5 parked in front of a McMansion with custom furniture and a couple of big-screen televisions, are you rich? It depends on how much debt was required to purchase all of that stuff . It seems like many Americans are fooling themselves (and their neighbors) into an illusion of [...]
Read more: mirage , credit , acquired , makes

Speculative Bubble: IPO mania and LBO mania leave companies, hedge funds, other speculators skating on thin ice
2007-06-07 12:32:47
How do I know that we are in the middle of a market mania? I’ve mentioned a few things about low volatility, risk not being discounted, valuations, etc. Today, I want to mention two other things: IPO mania and M&A mania. Near the apex of a bubble, IPOs and mergers and acquisitions become more and [...]
Read more: Speculative , Bubble

Falling production, a paucity of capital investment, over-consumption leave the U.S. lame; chase the future with foreign index ETFs
2007-06-06 12:15:45
Over the past several years, my stock picks have beat all of the major U.S. indices. However, I don’t consider myself a stock picker. My performance record is short term and likely a product of investing in value companies during a bull market. I was speaking with a friend yesterday about my success investing in [...]
Read more: investment , capital , chase

How overvalued is the NASDAQ 100 and how can you take advantage of the downside?
2007-06-05 12:52:16
Several of the users at stokblogs.com have been getting nervous about our credit bubble and have taken defensive positions in what they consider to be a dangerous market climate. The most recognized overvaluation in U.S. equities is the NASDAQ 100 index, which features the largest companies in the NASDAQ. I decided to do some research [...]


Visualizing Economics - A look at income and demographics in this week’s featured web site
2007-06-16 21:00:50
I want to continue featuring one web site each week that I think my readers will find interesting. The featured web site this week is a blog called Visualizing Economics . This blog has been sitting quietly in my blogroll for a while. The aptly named blog presents graphs of income data. The focus seems to [...]
Read more: demographics

Trade protectionism is in bloom; Congress has begun its assault on the world economy with a new Senate bill aimed at China
2007-06-15 09:20:30
This week, a new bill was introduced in the Senate with the intention of encumbering international trade with nations whose currencies are not rising fast enough to appease the fickle Congress . Stephen Roach predicted that anti-China legislation would make it through by the end of the summer—it appears his prediction will be accurate. Senate bill [...]
Read more: Trade , economy

Record share buybacks distort per share earnings and P/E ratios; Use other valuation measures
2007-06-14 09:31:40
Just how over-valued is this market? At first glance, it does not look too bad. The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is near 18. That doesn’t seem too high considering the 80-year average is 16 and the 2000 dot.com bubble peak was well above this level. I encourage people to look beyond this misleading [...]
Read more: Record

Why do kids do whip-its when they could try Sulfur Hexafluoride?
2007-06-19 20:21:30
I’ve been working longer hours at work this week (and will continue to do so for the rest of the week), so I haven’t been paying attention to the markets, economic indicators, or reports. I have some ideas in the pipeline, but they will have to wait until things calm down. Until then, settle for [...]


How currency appreciation compounds the returns on foreign equities for U.S. investors
2007-06-18 17:23:49
On June 6, I mentioned that I like exchange traded funds (ETF) because they can offer exposure to foreign currencies and foreign economies. Today, I want to offer some visuals to show just how pronounced the effects of currency appreciation can be on an ETF that is priced in U.S. dollars. All charts cover movement [...]


The change in the FICO scoring system draws opposition form piggyback middleman businesses, parents
2007-06-17 08:39:53
This is a follow-up to my column about the business of piggybacking, where people can improve credit scores by borrowing credit history as an authorized user on someone’s credit card. I mentioned that Fair Isaac is adopting a new FICO scoring system, starting in September, that ignores authorized users. There are two parties that oppose [...]
Read more: businesses

This week’s featured web site: Photos from northern Norway
2007-06-23 15:33:02
For Americans, traveling anywhere in the world has become expensive lately with the languishing dollar and global inflation. The greenback has declined nearly 7 percent against the Norwegian Krone year over year. While that might make a trip to beautiful Norway a pipe dream for some Americans, it won’t stop resourceful Americans from viewing the [...]


My first true personal finance entry - my second entry into the world of credit
2007-06-22 19:58:49
My blog is my personal soapbox. Typically, I write about the numbers behind the numbers (i.e., the important numbers that the special-interest-sponsored financial media and government ignore or don’t report because it doesn’t tell the story that makes their sponsors rich). Occasionally, I throw a bone and give an investment idea. Rarely, I report something [...]
Read more: finance , credit , personal finance

The Federal Reserve believes inflation has been contained. My bank account disagrees.
2007-06-21 21:19:23
I have written several columns about the economic impact of inflation and government’s misleading inflation statistics. While the Federal Reserve does not take into account the prices of food and energy when considering inflation, I will because those are two things people tend to buy in order to stay alive. The Federal Reserve considers food [...]
Read more: contained , bank account

Sinclair Lewis draws a picture of twenty first century America at the beginning of the twentieth century in Babbitt
2007-06-20 22:01:22
I’ve mentioned that I have been working a lot lately, so I decided to go to the library to get a book to unwind in the evening. I picked up two books: The Sound and the Fury, by William Faulkner and Babbitt, by Sinclair Lewis . I was warned away from Faulkner by a good friend, [...]
Read more: twenty , America

Chinese continue to shy away from U.S. dollar denominated assets; Chinese National Petroleum Corp. buys Alberta oil sands property
2007-06-26 12:27:37
A chief motif of this blog is that the global status quo—that is, the one where the world considers Federal Reserve notes made of paper valuable—is not likely to stay the same. Indeed, I have shown that American wealth is an illusion manifested by cheap credit and a highly leveraged consumer. With debt climbing unsustainably [...]
Read more: Chinese , National , Petroleum , Alberta , property

Site maintenance
2007-06-26 09:15:04
Update: While I don’t actually know php, this was such a simple task that it took me about 15 minutes to write the code and implement it successfully. I have been successful and you can validate the success (if you actually care) at this post. Notice that, while for ordinary posts (like this one) a [...]


The derivatives bubble and investment banking orgy fueled by the global credit bubble
2007-06-24 11:21:23
I have been writing about bubbles enough to make the world sound like a geothermal hot-pool in Yellowstone National Park. I mostly talk about the global stock market bubble, asset price bubbles, and the credit bubble. Today, I want to write about investment banking and something that Warren Buffet once called “financial weapons of mass [...]


Featured Site: coinflation.com – reporting the melt value of common coins
2007-06-30 13:15:32
When most people think about inflation, they think about how inflation affects the prices consumers pay to live. When I think about inflation, I consider the broader definition of inflation as expansion of the money supply. After all, expansion of the money supply changes one of the two components of classic economics—it effectively raises demand [...]
Read more: Featured , coins

Video Friday: Meet the world’s fattest cat
2007-06-29 15:14:32
I’m winding down for the weekend and that means a simple video post (I intend to do this every Friday ). Throw out your funny cat pictures. You won’t know whether to laugh or be appalled by this video. The owners must have had this cat on walrus diet. The video features this 40 pound cat [...]


Making Google Adsense work for your blog: Blending; placing the ad block within a post; playing nice with Pay Per Post
2007-06-28 14:11:39
When I first started a Wordpress blog, I had the intention of placing Google Adsense ads like other bloggers have done–that is, placing an ad block within a post and letting the content of the post work around the ad block. I didn’t see a lot of specific, consolidated information around the internet guiding a [...]
Read more: Blending , Pay Per Post

Fare Not-So-Well: Ending your employment with grace by calling out management
2007-06-27 08:13:38
The following is an actual email sent by a disgruntled employee whose term came to an abrupt end at one of the largest financial corporations in the United States (my employer). The “to:” line of the email included directors, human resources employees, managers, and even the CEO (who probably has a fine secretary filtering this [...]
Read more: Ending , employment

Reader Reaction: Reader comments about protectionist legislation in Congress and the implications of dissavings
2007-07-04 10:04:17
Since I saw good discussions on some of my columns in June, I want to begin taking time each week to highlight these comments and my response to them. I can only highlight a few comments at a time in order to keep post length reasonable. goldnsilver lured me into discussion in my posts, The [...]
Read more: Reader , Congress

Expenses for June - Dominated by Insurance and Rent
2007-07-03 15:19:39
I have been debating giving specific details about my life (as a lot of bloggers do). I like a lot of privacy, but an expense report is easy content so today I am providing a breakdown of my expenses for June. Total expenses for June were $1585.10. June is one of two months in the [...]
Read more: Expenses , Dominated

What are you saving for? - Two stories that show why America is headed for tough times.
2007-07-02 17:22:21
In my post, 10 Clichés to live by, I alluded to a conversation in which I was asked why I am saving. For me, the question is puzzling because it is tantamount to being asked, “Why do you breath?” I save because I have to. What the askers are seeking is the object of my [...]
Read more: America

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