Owner: Punt.com A Professional Gambler's Blog URL:www.Punt.com Join Date: Sun, 20 May 2007 05:03:19 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: A Blog written by a Professional Gambler. Read about the world of pro gambling, the psychology of gambling and what it takes to make it pay. Site statistics:Click here
"Value", and the need to be right, straight away. 2007-07-31 11:00:49 The two parts of this blog entry title are not compatible. Value
, and being right straight away do not go together. It seems a lot of people think they do. Someone who places a bet they believe is good value, who then sees the price become even better value or go against him, is a "mug" in some circles, and subject to much ridicule and merriment.
This person is not a "mug", they've simply either misjudged the situation, or have not executed it as well as they might. Or, if they want a very large bet, they may have had to go through the market in order to get on... Especially if they don't have time to spend drip feeding to build a big position. There's nothing wrong with any of these scenarios, what we have here is misunderstanding of what this punter is trying to acheive - and that is getting on with an edge and a view to running his position.
Our punter has no need to be "right" with immediate effect. A price that
Big Brother betting. 2007-08-19 06:26:56 I thought I'd write a post about a totally different subject, for my comeback entry. Betting on Big Brother
. Contrary to many opinions, it's actually possible to make a a profit from this program. The question is, can you really be bothered ?!
I've been a Big Brother
punter for 5 years, I had some big wins the year of Jade Goody, since then I've not bet as often on it due to lack of interest, until this year, when I had my largest ever "BB" bet early in the series on Brian to win (I've now squared this off to win on the twins too).
There's a couple of ways to make money in this, both require knowledge of the show, and unfortunately - watching the show! (At least fairly often.) You can trade on small price movements, or you can take a punt on the winner - using a series of intelligent guesses on several different factors. Personally, I like the 2nd method, you can make serious money doing it and potentially - you don't need to watch Read more:betting
5 clues that a tennis match is fixed. 2007-08-29 03:25:50 Given the recent focus on fixed matches on the ATP tour, I thought I'd write a piece about some of the signs of a fixed match. This is by no means an exhaustive list, just 5 pointers to raise suspicions and importantly - raise enough doubt for those of us that bet on tennis to give it the swerve.
1 & 2, "Irregular betting patterns" before the match begins. Most fixed matches will involve an amount of money being put down before it begins. This is when liquidity should be at it's strongest - the odds being based on form, surface, physical condition, head to heads etc. Liquidity being provided by bookmakers and betting exchanges, there's plenty of scope for a lot of money to be wagered on many different websites.
Things you should look for are;
Larger than normal movements in odds. Not just on who will win the match, but sometimes in the set score markets too. It's fairly common for a player to be told to work towards a 3 set matc Read more:clues
US Open lessons: Inconsistant thoughts. 2007-09-13 07:57:06 The US Open is over again for another year, Roger wins it... again, and I'm down a bit for the tournament, but up mentally after a good 2nd week.
The frustrations of trading and gambling never cease to amaze. You can learn everything there is to know about a market and the sport, but if susceptible, the same mental errors will jump up and take you by surprise. Mental consistency. This must surely be the holy grail of trading, that elusive thing that can turn an up and down (but mostly down) loser into a less variable - winner.
I've spent long days and months learning a lot this year. Technically I'm as good as I've ever been, and I'm confident I have some sort of explanation for almost anything going on in a tennis market. I know my strategy almost inside out, and I know when to execute. But none of this matters, if I'm not thinking consistently and in week one of the US Open, I paid for it!
Had someone been watching my trading during Read more:thoughts
Has Radek Stepanek been eating other players' brains? 2007-08-31 13:35:59
Has anyone seen Martina Hingis lately ? Someone should make sure she's ok, perhaps she was affraid her skull will be removed by Sylar... I mean... Radek, hence the split. He's playing so well at the moment, you have to wonder whether he's stolen her powers, or for that matter, who else's powers he's been stealing lately. He's playing some amazing tennis, currently 2 sets to 1 up against that other Hero - Novak Djokovic.
PS. If you don't know what I'm on about then you need to start watching Heroes on TV, definitely a Punt.com favourite at the moment.
Read more:eating
A good read... 2007-10-03 13:09:30 Just thought I'd point a few readers in the direction of a really good blog written by someone making some great strides in the right direction with their trading. Well done Mark Iverson, keep up the great work with your blog.
A lot of what he writes reminds me of the issues and learning curve I went through a few years ago, one great thing readers can take form his blog is the importance of staying in 'learning mode'. Remain aware and vigilant regardless of winning or losing, learn from what you did right and analyse things that went wrong - Mark's good at this, let's hope he continues to keep doing the same, the financial rewards are definitely deserved.
"Money you don't lose is just as real as money that you win." - Roy Cooke 2007-10-03 12:30:41 "Money you don't lose now, is money you don't have to win back later." - Larry Phillips.
"The dollar you keep from losing on a losing day is the same dollar you add to a win on a winning day." - Mike Caro.
Fail to understand these quotes and you will fail as a gambler. They work on so many levels;
Not losing, not doing anything in fact, is just as powerful as winning.
Money management is not something you can dare ever dismiss or put aside and come back to.
Don't let your ego stop you from admitting you were wrong - cut that loss, move on.
If there's no bet in the match, don't 'try' to find one, you never 'have to' have a bet.
It's fairly important to stay routed in reality - obvious to most, but not to gamblers at times.
It's worth thinking over these quotes a for a while, how many times have we all followed bad bets by more of the same? Or got involved when we shouldn't have? How much has this cost?
Read more:Cooke
Keeping the work / life balance, pressure avoidance. 2007-10-14 16:29:59 ..Or should I say, the gambling / life balance. I've always known there was an importance to maintaining a good balance to life, but I hadn't realised the real reason why, how the mechanism works, until this week.
The importance of how I live my life away from the computer and how it affects my gambling and trading has always been obvious to me. Having a life away from gambling keeps perspective and reality in
check, staying healthy and fit maintains trading stamina and a clear
head. The importance of how and when I should take time away, and why that matters has been less than clear, in fact, not something I've spent much time considering.
I've always been into figuring out how our heads work, how the various thinking mechanisms tick, inputs and outputs. Though obviously nothing is ever clear cut with the human brain and our emotions, we're hardly a rational species at times. But happenings this week made a few things clearer as to why it's
The fixed tennis match, that never was. 2007-10-11 04:44:28 It's a funny thing, the power of suggestion. How someone or something can suggest it is one thing, only to be something else entirely. Multiply this effect when basing judgement upon prior experience. Now add in to the mix a few hundred people, all thinking or wondering the same thing with all the persuasive and herd like properties that carries, and you have a nice recipe for chaos and pandemonium.
Yesterdays match between Elena Dementieva and Patty Schnyder was one such affair, but crucially, only for those of us participating in the Betfair market. You see, in the real world, there was nothing about this match that suggested anything strange at all.
The match was conducted fairly on all real evidence. It involved the usual amount of closely fought service games, double faults, tension and breaks of serve that you would expect from a match between these two players. Dementieva running out the winner in straight sets 6-3 6-4.
Yet on Betfa
Wanting to win... 2007-10-04 13:00:00 ...is similar to wanting to be rich. A desire to win, or be wealthy, is fine in theory, but how is this going to be achieved? How many people that want to be wealthy actually take the brave step of starting their own business and putting their energy into the process. A desire to win is not enough, in fact, in gambling, it can be a hinderance.
The key is what you focus your desire on. Wanting money as a gambler can be a disasterous idea. It can make you forget, or not focus on, the things that really matter - how to win, how to improve, what really went wrong and what you've been doing right. Furthermore, it can make you chase the money, betting too big for your bank, or getting overly attached to the money that you have lost. Massive mental errors (and losses) could potentially occur.
The correct thing to desire, is to 'get better' at what you are doing. Regardless of whether you do in fact 'get better', this attitude alone will g
Out of head and onto blog = empty head? 2007-10-25 16:26:21 Just a quick post this evening about something I've been noticing more and more each time I make a blog entry. What I'm writing is not necessarily staying in my head once I've written it. Not exactly an ideal situation, and not what I had in mind when I began the blog at all! What I'm writing here is supposed to help me as much as it seems to be helping a few of the readers, lately it's been more of the opposite.
What seems to be happening is that once an idea has been published, it's leaving my head, and has to be re-learnt again! I actually seem to drop the ideas on a personal level once I've put them online! Crazy. I need to give this some thought, why is this happening?.. First thought: perhaps the blog is appealing a little too much to my ego than it should. Am I feeding my ego too much here?
A lot of people think gamblers and big egos go hand in hand.. the stereotypical high roller is what they picture the pro
A punt.com Christmas message & review of 2007. 2007-12-24 10:50:49 Well, it's been a while. Apologies and also thanks to those that have so clearly continued to check back to this page for new entries in the time I've been away.
Another year has passed us all by, and what a year it has been.. I don't think I've ever crammed as much into 12 months as I have done this year. Many trips away, all over the world, New Zealand, New York, Portugal (twice), Sweden.. all for pleasure I must add and not work. Some may think I've taken it easy this year, and although at times they could be right, in the times I have worked - I worked very hard, and not always with satisfying results, though certainly with many lessons.
Although I've spent many times on the blog bemoaning the solitude and boredom of working alone and being something of an outsider, I do know how lucky I am to be in this position and to continue to be in this position. This year has had some stark reminders about how fragile an existence the profes Read more:review
, Christmas
January roundup. 2008-02-01 07:08:17 Well, I did say once a month didnt I... The Tennis.. We started the year in Qatar, it's always good to catch as much early action as you can before the Aussie Open, or indeed the rest of the year... Read more:January
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