Owner: Middle Class Millionaire URL:http://middleclassmillionaire.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Wed, 16 May 2007 09:40:58 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: I will document my journey from middle class to an early middle class retirement. I will share my financial progress, rant about the market, stocks, retirement, saving money and anything and everything related to money, investing and retiring early. Site statistics:Click here
Loblaws 2007-10-12 08:12:00 The Money Gardener asked me a good question in the comments section of my blog but I thought I’d answer it as a post as I’ve recently received a few email regarding Loblaws."I am surprised that you still hold Loblaws. Are you in this name for the long term? What is your rationale for holding on to this dog?"Good question...I bought L with the intention of holding for the long term. However, my patience is starting to wane. Since I bought it has been disappointment after disappointment however, I am going to continue to hold and give them a chance to execute their strategy and get their supply chain issues sorted out. I still believe that L is the best CDN grocery retailer and has well respected brands in both the discount and upscale grocery market. Additionally, free cash flows are starting to increase and at 18X estimated 2007 earnings and 16X 2008 estimated earnings I don’t think the stock has a lot of downside from here as the valuations are getting reasonable. Additionally
New Position - WAG 2007-10-11 11:10:00 I initiated a position in WAG yesterday. As many of you know I really like the company but just haven’t been able to pull the trigger based on valuation. However, that all changed 10 days ago when WAG missed earnings by $0.07 and the stock was hammered 15%. Despite the earnings miss I don’t think that anything has fundamentally changed with WAG and as far as I can tell the pricing environment is the same as it was before the miss. The recent correction has simply made a great company cheaper and I plan on being a very long term shareholder of the company.For further fundamental information on WAG please refer to the below posts:From My BlogInvesting Based on Demographics WAG-CVSFrom the Money Gardeners Blog:Who said Drugstore Stocks Were Boring (Disclaimer: I’m not your boss or your spouse so do you own research and make your opinions on when to buy or sell. Nothing I say should be bastardized or construed in any way to be advice.)
Retirement Nest Egg at the Close of Oct 09, 2007 2007-10-10 07:57:00 -no change from last month-up 8.6% in 2007TRP – 4.25%CSH.UN – 2.90%GWO – 5.05%PFE – 3.7%POW – 4.45%BA.UN – 0.41%L – 3.76%UNS – 2.87%GZ – 2.51%TD – 14.02%EIT.UN – 2.74%JNJ – 5.69%MMM – 4.15%ZED – 0.44%ATD.B – 3.7%O'Shaughnessy’s Global Fund – 3.97%American Growth Fund – 0.98%Canadian Value Fund – 3.77%Small Cap Growth Fund – 4.21%Chou Associates Fund – 10.12%Money Market Fund – 16.31%Last month was unusually active for me (although still quite boring by many peoples standards). I sold GO.A just before their 10% drop, took some profits in ABX (sold too early) and finally decided to unload an underperforming Health Science Fund that I’d purchased almost a decade ago before I really knew anything about investing. These transactions have left me with about 16% of my portfolio sitting in cash. This month I will probably be initiating a position in WAG and will continue to keep an eye on ATD.B, IPL.UN, IIC, TOC, GO.A Read more:Close
Investing based on Demographics - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 2007-10-09 11:52:00 “Johnson
& Johnson is engaged in the manufacture and sale of a broad range of products in the health care field in many countries of the world. The company's worldwide business is divided into three segments: Consumer; Pharmaceutical; and Professional.”Dividend Yield: 2.6%Dividend Yield 5yr Avg: 1.9 %ROE levels of above 21% for the past 10 yearsCurrent P/E– 18Projected 2007 P/E –16Projected 2008 P/E – 154 Star rating from S&P - $74 one year targetArgus rates it a buy with a $76 one year targetOther information:-44 years of consistent dividend growth.-Dividends issued to shareowners every quarter since 1944. -Dividend raised each year for 44 consecutive years. -Sales have increased each year for 73 consecutive years.-Double digit Earnings increases for 21 consecutive years.-44% of sales outside of North AmericaTHESIS: JNJ sells hundreds of brand name products in the health care space. As the population ages they will increasingly be using more health care products and devices Read more:Investing
Investing Based on Demographics - CLC.UN 2007-10-03 20:52:00 I'm still on vacation but managed to get connected with a 28.0 kbps modem (very very slow)...and for those of you that live in Canada have a great Thanksgiving.CML Health Care (CLC.UN) “Provides laboratory testing services in Ontario and medical imaging services in five provinces across Canada through wholly owned CML Healthcare Inc.”Dividend Yield: 6.4%ROE: 19.91%PE: 14.6XEstimated 2007 PE: 13.3XEstimated 2008 PE: 12.85XTDNewcrest: Hold, $15.65 targetTHESIS: This one is easy, CLC.UN makes money whenever a medical test is sent to the lab. As the population ages more tests are done. CLC.UN is a virtually recession proof company, in an industry with high barriers to entry and rock solid cash flows that I definitely plan on adding to my portfolio in the future. This is another case where I love the company but don’t like the price. The only disadvantage I see with owning CLC.UN (other than valuation)is that many of their prices are regulated but the government which means they lose Read more:Investing
Natural Gas 2007-10-18 07:40:00 I have been recently doing some research and speaking with a mining engineer friend of mine about natural gas and its prospects as an investment going forward. I’m in the process of developing a general strategy for investing in natural gas. As many of you probably know natural gas prices have been depressed while oil and other resources have been enjoying a boom. This point is be painfully clear if you are one of the many investors that have a gas stock or two tucked away in your portfolio…as many of them have literally been cut in half ie – CMT, GZ, GNY Now it’s not all bad news. The good news is that because natural gas prices are so low many companies have either greatly reduced (or stopped) their drilling levels. Despite this fact there has been no movement in gas prices, why? Well the reason is simple we still have a ton of the stuff in reserve so there hasn’t been any pressures on the supply side…yet…but what happens when those reserves start to diminish? Well the Read more:Natural
, Natural Gas
Steps to Early Retirement 2007-10-15 07:35:00 There is certainly no shortage of opinions on the steps to early retirement. In this post I’m going to outline the steps that I will be following and feel are necessary to successfully retire early. Step 1Realizing that you Actually Need a Retirement Plan – this sounds simple but it’s amazing how many people don’t have a real retirement strategy. Many people save for retirement but have no idea how they are doing or how close they are to retirement. I’ve talked to people who’s “retirement strategy” is to work until 60 and then retire…but they have no idea of how much money they’ll need at 60, how much they’ll be receiving or how much they should be saving or investing. I think “Realizing that you Actually Need a Retirement Plan” is the most important but often overlooked step in many people's retirement journey.Step 2Now that you know you need a real retirement plan you need to determine exactly how much money you’ll need each month and then add 10% to that Read more:Early
Chartwell Seniors Housing - CSH.UN 2007-10-19 08:02:00 I’ll continue on the natural gas theme next week…in the meantime. I increased my position in Chartwells Senior Housing
yesterday bringing CSH.UN up to just over 5% of my portfolio. “Chartwell is a growth-oriented investment trust owning and managing a complete spectrum of seniors housing communities. It is the largest participant in the Canadian seniors housing business and the third largest in North America. Chartwell will capitalize on the strong demographic trends present in its markets to grow internally and through accretive acquisitions. Chartwell also has an exclusive option to purchase stabilized communities from Spectrum, Canada's largest and fastest growing seniors housing development company.”-The company is well positioned to capitalize on the aging North American demographic-They have a significant presence in the higher margin category of retirement homes (ie-retired wealthy people)-I’ve recently talked to a few people who have just placed their parents in a Ch Read more:Seniors
Natural Gas – II 2007-10-23 10:20:00 Here’s a little more detail on the factors that effect natural gas prices.WeatherThe demand for natural gas usually peaks sometime between November and March. This of course depends on how cold the temperature gets as natural gas is the main input for heating North American homes. Likewise, the demand for natural gas increases in the summer when everyone starts turning on their air conditioners. The price of natural gas is also influenced by catastrophic weather events ie- hurricanes. If you’ve ever watched your local weather forecast you know that the weather can’t be accurately predicted (especially the long term forecast) so although we know that weather affects the price of natural gas we can’t predict when. However, it is safe to assume that at some point there will be either a vicious hot/cold snap or major hurricane and gas prices will spike (which is when they should be dumped)DemographicsWell this one is obvious...the more people that need to heat/cool their house the Read more:Natural
, Natural Gas
Government Sued Over Income Trusts 2007-10-31 08:30:00 I came across an article by John Partridge while doing my daily read on Globe Investor and thought that it was worth sharing.SYNOPSIS:A U.S. couple is currently in the process of suing the Canadian government claiming that the 2006 unexpected changes to the income trust tax laws are in breach of the NAFTA agreement.To read the entire article please follow this link. Read more:Government
, Income
U.S Housing 2007-10-30 09:23:00 Ok so Buffet and many other deep value investors are starting to re-enter the housing market and some of you want to go against the herd and follow Buffets lead (and why wouldn’t you Buffet is the most successful investor of all time)...but which housing companies are going to survive? Which are going to fail? Which are going to thrive? There are some great companies out there that are certainly going to survive ie- HOME DEPOT, LOWES etc…However, are those companies going to thrive? What about builders? Which ones are going to continue to thrive? If you’re like everyone else out there you don’t know the answer to those questions (and neither do I). However, if you’re confident in the sector but not necessarily in the individual names of the sector you might want to check out the SPDR Homebuilders ETF.“The SPDR Homebuilders ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before expenses, the performance of an index derived from the homebuilding segment of a U.S. total market Read more:Housing
Retirement Nest Egg at the Close of Oct 31, 2007 2007-11-02 10:15:00 -down 1% from last month-up 7.6% in 2007-CDN 69%-U.S. 27%-International 4%TRP - 4.52%CSH.UN - 5.08%GWO - 5.23%PFE - 3.49%POW - 4.55%BA.UN - 0.41%WAG - 3.52%L - 3.69%UNS - 2.88%GZ - 2.41%TD - 13.9%EIT.UN - 2.75%JNJ - 5.49%MMM - 3.68%ATD.B - 3.83%O'Shaughnessy’s Global - 3.97%American Growth Fund - 0.96%CDN Value Fund - 3.74%Small Cap Growth Fund - 4.4%Chou Associates Fund - 10.15%Money Market Fund - 11.37%No huge changes from last month. I initiated a position in WAG and unloaded ZED for a loss which I’ll talk about more on Monday. The decrease in my portfolio is largely due to the weakness of the US dollar. I’ll also start including the amount of Canadian, American and International exposure that I have for each network update. I’m currently sitting with about 11% of my portfolio in cash and am watching quite a few stocks but am closely watching C,BAC, TOC, IIC, BMO, WMT as well as opportunities to add to my existing positions on weakness. Read more:Close
25 Stocks to Avoid 2007-11-09 07:15:00 I recently read an article by Jon Markman over at MSN Money Central. In his article he explains his rational for avoiding the following 25 stocks.To read the entire article please click here.25 COMPANYS JON MARKMAN SAYS TO AVOID1. Merrill Lynch (MER, news, msgs)2. Lehman Bros. (LEH)3. Bear Stearns (BSC)4. Bank of America (BAC)5. Citigroup (C)6. Washington Mutual (WM)7. KeyCorp (KEY)8. Wachovia (WB)9. Moody's (MCO)10. McGraw-Hill (MHP)11. YRC Worldwide (YRCW) 12. JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)13. Con-Way (CNW)14. Knight Transportation (KNX)15. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)16. McClatchy (MNI, news, msgs)17. The New York Times (NYT)18. Gannett (GCI)19. Arctic Cat (ACAT)20. Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)21. Williams-Sonoma (WSM)22. La-Z-Boy (LZB)23. Stanley Furniture (STLY)24. Bassett Furniture Industries (BSET)25. News Corp. (NWS) Of course you should do your own research as it's been my experience that the best buying opportunities are often when everyone else says don't buy (howeve Read more:Avoid
, Stocks
PFIZER (PFE) 2007-11-08 07:02:00 For those of you that track my portfolio and keep me honest during my monthly nest egg updates (thank you)...and...I forgot to mention that I topped up my position in PFE last week bringing it back to approximately 5% of my portfolio.
Citi Group – C 2007-11-07 06:47:00 I initiated a half position in C on Monday and plan on holding this name indefinitely.“Citigroup is organized into four major business groups: Global Consumer; Markets and Banking (M&B); GlobalWealth Management; and Alternative Investments. The Citigroup Global Consumer business includes banking services, credit cards, loans and insurance. The M&B business is in about 100 countries and advises companies, governments, and institutional investors on the best way to realize their strategic objectives. The GlobalWealth Management division at Citigroup is comprised of The Citigroup Private Bank, Smith Barney (private wealth management), and Citigroup Investment Research,and serves both private and institutional clients.”Here are my reasons for buying:-I don’t believe that the dividend will be cut. -As a general rule I’ve found that the best time to buy large multinational blue chips is when everyone else hates them.-S&P credit rating = AA (second highest rating)-Moodys credit rating Read more:Group
Dividend Growing Stocks VII – Walmart (WMT) 2007-11-13 06:33:00 “Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. is the world's largest retailer. They are engaged in the operation of mass merchandising stores, which serve their customers primarily through the operation of three segments, which are the Wal-Mart Stores segment, the SAM'S Club segment and the International segment.”-Current PE – 15X-2008 Estimated PE – 14.3X-2009 Estimated PE – 12.9-ROE – 21%-ROI – 13%-Current Yield – 1.95% -5 Year Average Yield – 1%-Dividend
s Paid Since 1973-Current Payout Ratio – 26%-5 Year Historical Payout Ratio – 21%-3 year dividend growth rate - 14.63 %-5 year dividend growth rate – 20.80%-22% of their revenue is from international operationsLike many other large caps the earnings have been growing while the share price remains relatively stable and over the last 10 years WMT has been seen it’s PE contract from 28X to 15X.I don’t currently own WMT however it is one I would eventually like to add to my portfolio. Read more:Growing
, Stocks
, Walmart
Questrade – Recently Closed My Account 2007-11-16 11:36:00 I’ve recently closed my Questrade account for a few reasons. The first and most important one is that my big bank now offers me the same commission rates as Questrade in addition to all the other great features that Questrade lacks. Additionally, I’ve been very unimpressed with their customer service. I’ve only called fours times however, each time I felt very rushed by the representative and on one occasion they would not stay on the phone to verify that I could indeed login again and I was told to call back if it didn’t work. That wouldn’t normally bother me except that it took nearly 30mins to talk to a rep in the first place. Additionally, on their website they claim that it’s 1-2 days for an electronic funds transfer from Questrade to your bank account. However, my experience is that it takes approximately a week. After waiting on the phone for about 30mins I was told that it was 1-2 business days after it’s processed at Questrade but there was no guarantee on the pr Read more:Account
, Closed
To DRIP or Not to DRIP 2007-11-22 08:58:00 I have recently decided to enroll in the DRIP of many of my holdings. For those of you that have followed this blog for a while you’ll know that this is contrary to the opinion I had in March of 2007. However, before I’m labeled hypocritical (or possibly fickle) let me plead my case and explain the rational behind enrolling some of my positions.My portfolio is now at the point where I won’t be adding many more new names as I plan on only holding between 20 and 25 securities. I believe that 20 to 25 holding will provide me with adequate diversification as well as allow me to keep informed on the names I own. As I’ll only be adding between 3 and 8 more positions I will be concentrating on increasing the amount invested in each of my holdings so I’ve decided that DRIPs would be the most effective method to do that as it would become burdensome and not very cost efficient to make 17 to 25 small additional purchases each year. I have chosen to exclude both TD and CSH.UN from the D
Bell Aliant (BA.UN) 2007-11-20 18:05:00 I recently took the opportunity to sell (commission free) my very small amount of BA.UN. I was able to do this through Bell Aliants “Small Unitholder Selling Program”. Bell has decided to allow unitholders who own less than 100 units to “sell all, but not less than all, of their Units without incurring brokerage charges.” You might be wondering why BA.UN would go out of their way and absorb the cost of this initiative...well the answer is easy, money. Bell is anticipating that this initiative will save them money by reduce the administrative burden and cost associated with having so many unitholders. It takes the same amount of administrative resources to issue distributions, annual report etc...to a unitholder with 5 units as it does to one with 200. Well your next question might be “who would buy only 5 units of BA.UN?” well...the answer is nobody. However, thousands and thousands of BCE shareholders were issued units of BA.UN when it was spun off last year. If I remember
A Couple Stocks with Huge Buyback Programs 2007-11-29 09:20:00 I just wanted to point readers to these two high quality companies that have initiated massive share buybacks.1. Cisco (CSCO) – Cisco just increased the amount of their share buyback plan by $10 billion bringing their total buyback program up to $62 billion. With a market cap of 170 billion this buyback represents approximately 36% of their outstanding shares. In further support of the stock David Dreman, a respected and successful value investor has recently been a buyer.2. American International Group (AIG) – AIG has been aggressively buying back it’s shares over the last year (69 million shares) and will be adding another $8 billion to it’s buyback plan. Supporters of the stock include famous investors Micheal Price and Bruce Kovner who both have positions in AIG.In my opinion any company that is undertaking massive share buybacks are at least worth taking a look at, as it indicates that the management of the company believes that the shares are fundamentally undervalued and Read more:Programs
, Stocks
DRIPs 2007-11-26 08:24:00 After my last post about DRIPs I received a few e-mail enquiries regarding different aspects of DRIPs so I thought it would be worthwhile to go over the basics.What is a DRIP?DRIP stands for Dividend Reinvestment Plan. There are 3 different types of DRIPs however they all work on the same principle, instead of shareholders receiving dividend payouts in cash they receive their dividend payout in the form of more company shares.3 basic types of DRIPsCompany RunThis type of DRIP is administered directly through the publicly traded company. Fractional shares are permitted in this type of DRIP meaning that if you receive a quarterly dividend of $1 and the share price is $5 you would receive an additional 1/5 of a share. Additionally, many company run DRIPs also provide shareholders some incentive for staying enrolled ie – 3% bonus to the regular dividend. Company run DRIPs also usually offer a Share Purchase Plan which is a plan that allows investors to buy additional shares with no commi
Retirement Nest Egg at the Close of Dec 3, 2007 2007-12-05 06:37:00 -up 1.4% from last month-up 7.9% in 2007-CDN 64%-U.S. 32%-International 4%TRP - 4.37%CSH.UN - 4.24%GWO - 4.91%PFE - 5.12%POW - 4.52%BA.UN - 0.37%WAG - 3.37%L - 2.81%UNS - 2.50%GZ - 2.06%TD - 14.29%EIT.UN - 2.49%JNJ - 5.95%MMM - 3.65%C - 3.06%ATD.B - 3.35%BCE - 5.77%O'Shaughnessy’s Global Fund - 3.78%American Growth Fund - 0.95%CDN Value Fund - 3.44%Small Cap Growth Fund - 4.01%Chou Associates Fund - 10.06%Money Market Fund - 4.92%I made a few changes over the last month, I initiated a half position in C and took a full position in BCE. The 1.4% increase in my portfolio was a result of contributions and not share appreciation. Discounting my contributions in November my nest egg was actually down 2% from the end of October and up only 5.9% in 2007. The majority of the decline was a result of the underperformance of three of my holdings L, ATD.B and CSH.UN. I will continue to watch all three of my decliners and am considering selling L for tax reasons and switching into WN. Read more:Close
Purchased BCE 2007-12-04 06:35:00 Shortly after Friday’s post I decided to take a full position in BCE. I am fully aware that there is some risk in this play. However, I believe that the risk reward favours investing in BCE. The worst case scenario as an investor is that the buyout does not occur and I’m left holding a position in Canada ’s largest telecommunications company. Although the possibility exists that the deal will not go through here are the reasons I believe it will: 1. The Teachers Pension plan is not dumb and they are aware that there has always been regulatory risk and rumours regarding the opening of telecommunications markets in Canada. 2. The bond holders trying to block the deal are Bell bondholders not BCE bondholders. 3. Credit markets are in disarray due to the sub prime mess, which could cause problems raising the necessary capital. However, if financing cannot be obtained they have other options such as: increasing the amount of capital invested and refinancing later. 4. The consortium c
BCE – Still a Play? 2007-11-30 10:11:00 As I’m sure everyone knows a consortium led by Teachers' Private Capital, Providence Equity Partners and Madison Dearborn Partners have made arrangements to acquire all of outstanding common and preferred shares of BCE. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2008 and shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the $42.75 offered for each common share. Despite this fact (at the time writing) BCE is only trading at $39.40. This represents a discount of $3.35 or approximately 7.8%. Additionally, two dividends will be paid before the buyout for a total which will add another $0.73 per share. Combine the capital appreciation and the dividend income and that represents an upside of $4.08 or 10.3% between now and the second quarter of 2008. In my opinion a potential six month return of 10.3% is certainly very attractive in this environment. There is only one obvious risk to this scenario, the takeover does not happen. In my opinion the risk of this is minimal (but does exist)
Recession Resistant Funds and ETFs 2007-12-14 07:12:00 If you don't have a lot of capital to deploy or simply want to limit to your exposure to any individual names here are some mutual funds and ETFs that you might want to consider:MUTUAL FUNDS1. Vice Fund (VICEX) "The Vice Fund invests in companies, both domestic and foreign, engaged in the aerospace and defense industries, owners and operators of casinos and gaming facilities, manufacturers of gaming equipment such as slot machines, manufacturers of cigarettes and other tobacco products, and brewers, distillers, vintners and producers of other alcoholic beverages"2. T. Rowe Price Health Sciences (PRHSX)"To invest at least 80% of net assets in common stocks of companies engaged in the research, development, production, or distribution of products or services related to health care, medicine, or the life sciences. While the fund can invest in companies of any size, the majority of fund assets are expected to be invested in large- and mid-capitalization companies"3. MFS Utiliti Read more:Funds
, Recession
Building a Recession Resistant Portfolio 2007-12-13 06:37:00 As promised in my last post "Recession
Proof your Portfolio
" here is a list of securities that you can use as a starting point to research your own recession resistant portfolio. Please feel free to add any other picks you feel I've missed in the comments section and I'll post a compiled list.Sin StocksCDL.A - TSXMO - NYSEROC- TSXBUD - NYSEDEO - NYSEUTX - NYSEBA - NYSEBTI - AMEXITY - NYSERAI - NYSECG - NYSETAP.A - TSXHealth CareJNJ - NYSECL - NYSEWAG - NYSETEVA - NASDAQPFE - NYSEBAX - NYSECLC.UN - TSXSC - TSXMRK - NYSECVS - NYSEGSK - NYSESGP - NYSEGILD- NASDAQUtilities TRP - TSXENB - TSXEP.UN - TSXFCE.UN - TSXEMA - TSKCU - TSXMPT.UN - TSXAPF.UN - TSXACO.X - TSXMPT.UN - TSXIn my next post I will list a few mutual fund and Exchange Traded Funds that would be appropriate for a recession proof portfolio. (Disclaimer: As always please do your own research and make your own decisions on which investments on when to buy or sell. Nothing I say should be bastardized or co Read more:Building
Recession Proof your Portfolio 2007-12-11 09:00:00 If you're like many other small investors out there you might be feeling a little pang of worry about the possibility of a recession and are starting to unload some of your more cyclical and economically sensitive names. You could simply take the proceeds of your sale and dump them into fixed income products but with bond yield so low what's the point? Unless of course your only goal is capital preservation as current yields will just barely beat inflation. For those of you nervous about the future of the economy but want to stay invested in equities you might want to take a look at the following three recession resistant areas: 1. Sin Stocks - These would include companies involved with: booze, cigarettes or weapons. Do you know anyone who's stopped drinking or smoking when they've fallen on economically bad times? Wars continue on regardless of the state of the economy.2. Health Care - Even if the economy is in rough shape people will continue to visit the doctor, continu Read more:Portfolio
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, Recession
Recession 2007-12-07 11:16:00 There has been a lot of talk recently in the financial news about the big "R"… recession. If you've tuned in to any business channel in the last week you would have inevitably heard at least one talking head espousing their prediction of whether or not the US will enter a recession. We all know that a recession is bad but what exactly does it mean? And how do we know when we get there?There is no absolute universal definition of a recession however, the definition used in the press and financial media is simply "two or more consecutive quarters of real GDP decline" However, I prefer the description given by the National Bureau of Economic Activity (NBER):"It's more accurate to say that a recession-the way we use the word-is a period of diminishing activity rather than diminished activity. We identify a month when the economy reached a peak of activity and a later month when the economy reached a trough. The time in between is a recession, a period when the economy is co Read more:Recession
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