Don't be fooled by the Dollar 2007-05-01 00:52:00 DON’T be seduced by reports of the dollar’s great value against the Pound – a study out this week discovers the US is STILL one of the most expensive places to head on holiday.The Post Office Holiday Costs Barometer found that although the exchange rate is great for picking up electronics and jewellery at a discount, everyday necessities are often expensive.Consumers may save on iPods, laptops and designer clothes but the added cost on essentials like water, beer and suncream may eat away the savings.The Post Office checked prices of ten basic items in favourite holiday destinations and found the America was the MOST expensive, with costs totalling £69.41.The cheapest destination was Bulgaria, whose total cost for all ten items was only £16.86 – a £52.55 difference.A 1.5-litre bottle of Evian water is almost three times more in the US than in any other country surveyed, and is 15 times more expensive than in Egypt.But the States does have the second cheapest prices for renta Read more:Dollar
, fooled
Rising euro may turn dollar again attractive 2007-04-29 01:52:00 NEW YORK, April 28: The last time the US dollar slid to a record low against the euro it quickly recovered, but this time may be different.The dollar slid to a new record low against the euro on Friday, with the euro quoted above $1.3680, the highest since the currency's launch in 1999.When the euro climbed above $1.36 in 2004, it limped above that level for five days, and then embarked on a year-long decline.But unlike late 2004, when the Federal Reserve was in the early stages of a two-year rate rising cycle which provided some support for the dollar against the euro, US economic growth is now slowing and the Fed may even cut interest rates later this year.At the same time, economies in the Europe and Asia seem to be weathering the US slowdown well, suggesting that interest rates in those regions may continue to move higher, drawing yield-hungry investors away from the dollar.“I think we’re going to see $1.38 (euro/dollar) without too much trouble here,” said Joseph Trevisani, Read more:attractive
, Rising
Euro: A Repeat of December 2004? 2007-05-03 03:49:00 In yesterday’s Daily Fundamentals, we had pointed out that the peak in the EUR/USD in December
2004 was triggered by a series of disappointing economic data. Today we get a sense of déjà vu as we are beginning to see the same scenario unfold once again. Earlier this week, German retail sales dropped significantly and this morning, we saw German unemployment and Eurozone manufacturing PMI all fall short of expectations. Originally expected to drop by 40k, unemployment instead only dropped by 9k, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.2 percent. The Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey was also originally expected to increase, but it remained unchanged. Aside from the German retail number, these disappointments are not significant. Nonetheless, it does indicate that the combination of a strong Euro and the value added tax increase is beginning to have a negative impact on the Eurozone economy. We are already looking for more Euro weakness than strength though in the short term, th Read more:Repeat
US Dollar Sells off after Weak Payrolls, but Reaction is Limited 2007-05-05 19:12:00 Even though non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, the sell-off in the US dollar has been limited. Why was there such odd price action in the greenback? Two reasons. The first is the lack of interest in trading today. London traders were focused on squaring up ahead of their 3 day weekend while Japanese and Chinese traders have been out all week. Volume has been thin and because of that, the EUR/USD has not found enough buyers to push it beyond 1.3600. The second is the implications of the data on interest rates. Although the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates next week, they are expected to adjust their FOMC statement. Unfortunately with gasoline prices above $3 a gallon and moving higher, Team Bernanke will probably continue to put inflation ahead of growth. They will look at the sharp drop in jobless claims yesterday and argue that the labor market will most likely improve in the months to come. However we will need to see jobless claims remain Read more:Dollar
, Payrolls
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US Dollar and Equities Recover but Bond Yields Continue to Sell Off : What Does this Mean? 2007-07-26 00:46:00 It is earnings season and this appears to be cushioning the fall in both the US dollar and the Dow. Stocks clawed their way back into positive territory in the late US trading session after the market digested the more optimistic Federal Reserve Beige Book report. In contrast to the warnings and dour outlook given by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week, the report from the 12 Fed districts provided a breath of fresh air. According to the report, economic growth continued at a modest pace for most districts. Even though consumer spending for 4 out of the 12 districts was mixed or below expectations, business spending was strong. The same could be said about the real estate market, which was weak on the retail level but more active on a commercial level. At the same time however it leav Read more:Continue
, Dollar
, Equities
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Yen Seesaws As Inflation Remains Tame; Swiss Rally Blunted 2007-05-25 05:56:00 While the EURUSD remained quiet for most of Asian and European sessions contained to a 20 point range, the yen was the most volatile major of the night traveling nearly 70 points several times during Friday trade. The currency continues to be buffeted by carry trade and risk aversion flows as it first rallied when the Nikkei fell by -1.22% only to give up most of its gains as the Shanghai index managed to record yet another up day closing +0.69%. Trading in yen, which is usually quite subdued, was truly schizophrenic tonight as yen bulls managed to push the pair below the 121.00 figure only to be repelled by the bears who quickly rallied USDJPY back above 121.50.Some of the action was caused by reports that North Korea managed to fire another missile into the sea of Japan, but with North Read more:Inflation
, Rally
, Remains
, Swiss
Euro: Looking for Clues to What the ECB May do Beyond June 2007-05-19 15:29:00 The Euro is slightly stronger today despite disappointing economic data. German producer prices increased by a meager 0.1 percent in the month of April compared to the market’s 0.4 percent forecast. The softer inflation number is another piece of evidence that the weakness in the US dollar and the strength of the Euro could discourage the European Central Bank from lifting interest rates beyond June. The reaction in the Euro was relatively muted because the June rate hike has already been fully priced into the market while the PPI number does little to clarify whether the ECB will or will not move again after that. As Trichet indicated last month, they will decide what to do after June in June. Their decision is data dependent and there are a number of key European data that could h
Dollar Weakens as Chinese Yuan Revaluation Reduces the Need for Buying 2007-05-19 15:28:00 The world turned its focus to the currency market today as China made its second most significant revaluation move in two years. The central bank of China announced this morning that they were widening the trading band for the Yuan, increasing reserve requirements and raising interest rates. The last time China revalued its currency was in July 2005 and just as that move came a week after the US imposed a timetable for Chinese
revaluation, this move comes in the midst of the G8 meeting and a week before a Chinese delegation arrives in the US for talks with Treasury Secretary Paulson. This politically well timed move is characteristic of most moves made by China. As a proxy for Asian strength or weakness, the latest announcement has sent the Japanese Yen rallying. It has also sent the U Read more:Buying
, Chinese Yuan
, Dollar
Yen Continues to Drop After BOJ Stationary - How Low Will it Go? 2007-05-17 08:53:00 Another night of trade in FX, another drop in the Japanese yen. The lowest yielder in the G-3 universe was hurt tonight by less than stellar GDP results and persistent inaction on the part the BOJ. Japanese GDP printed at 0.6% vs. 0.7% expected and although this was the ninth straight quarterly increase it provided no reason for the BoJ to expedite its “low and slow” approach to monetary policy and as such disappointed speculators betting that a more robust number would compel the central bank to hike rates soon.The BOJ then confirmed market’s expectations by stating in its headline assessment that “Japan’s economy is expanding moderately” with Governor Fukui, once again saying that “The Central Bank will adjust rates gradually”. It is precisely this “moderation” in gr Read more:Stationary
Euro Falls Victim to Dollar Strength 2007-05-16 16:27:00 Despite the fact that officials from the European Central Bank continued to stress their hawkishness, the Euro erased all of its gains and then some. The move did not come until the US session as the upside surprises to Eurozone data kept the Euro hovering around 1.36 until the open of the US session. The data indicated that French wage growth accelerated in the first quarter along with non-farm payrolls. Eurozone CPI remained unchanged at 1.9 percent, which was slightly stronger than market expectations. The ECB is set to release their monthly report tomorrow and we expect the details to contain the same hawkish tone. Growth and inflation data give us no reason to question whether the ECB will follow through with their plans to raise interest rates next month. Read more:Dollar
, Falls
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