Owner: Don't trip up URL:http://donttripup.blogspot.com Join Date: Tue, 01 May 2007 18:26:00 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: Analysis of British politics and current affairs. Written from a liberal, social democratic, position. Site statistics:Click here
Oh, go on then 2007-05-04 15:23:00 With about two-thirds of the election results in, analysis is already underway. Every party is keen to stress the positives - Labour damage is not as bad as expected for a mid-term election, Conservatives have made significant gains in England, and the nationalists are on the rise in Scotland and Wales. The Liberal Democrats have been squeezed throughout the country, and have not been saying very much of anything.Eyes are already turning to the next election, with both of the main parties stressing that they have a good chance of victory. They do - Labour have not been hammered and could recover, the Conservative have a strong lead.However, it may be best for the Labour Party if Labour lose the next election (for the sake of argument, I will place it in 2009 and the subsequent election in 2013).Labour victory in 2009 would be similar to the Conservative victory in 1992 - their majority will be wafer thin and Brown will be unable to exact necessary reforms or correct past policy mistake
He's not all about illegal wars 2007-05-08 18:08:00 In a historic moment in Stormont, both the Rev Ian Paisley and Martin McGuiness were sworn into the offices of First Minister and Deputy First Minister respectively, reports The Guardian. The resumption of the power-sharing executive and the Good Friday Agreement 1998 is a positive step for Northern Ireland. There are, of course, the usual positive noises coming from Blair, Hain, and Ahern (the Irish taoiseach), as well as the two men themselves:Speaking just before the ceremony, Mr McGuinness said it marked "a fundamental change of approach, with parties moving forward together to build a better future for the people that we represent"...Mr Hain said: "There's been more preparation for this moment between the DUP and Sinn Féin, between Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness and their ministerial party colleagues than ever before, and that's what fills me with optimism - not just that the darkness and horror of the past are now behind us but that there is a real prospect of this governme Read more:illegal
Excuse my French 2007-05-07 16:13:00 Sarkozy has won the French
presidential race, and The Times looks forward to his reformist agenda. He is making some of the right noises, and has a convincing mandate for reform. The Times notes a few of his statements:Together we are going to write a new page of history...The French have chosen to break with the ideas, habits and behaviour of the past. I will restore the value of work, authority, merit and respect for the nation...It [the EU] must not be the Trojan horse for globalisation’s ills...And, of course, his campaign slogan is also encouraging:Work more to earn more Sarkozy has a lot to prove, and faces some serious obstacles to his reformist agenda. Firstly his party, the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), must win a majority in the impending National Assembly elections. He must then steer France towards modernity.The first stage is to reform the stagnant labour market in France. French labour markets must be liberalised and opened up to competition. This means more Read more:Excuse
Insolvency is good, voters disagree 2007-05-11 18:13:00 Bank of England independence is proving its worthiness as it raises interests for the fourth time in ten months, reports The Times. In an effort to curb inflation by reducing borrowing and increasing saving, the Bank of England has raised interest rates in 5.5 per cent. Further increases are expected.This is sound economic policy, for too long credit has been cheap and it has shown in record levels of debt and demand industry cannot meet. While it make prove unpopular at the moment, with mortgages being pushed up, it is better in the long term for the British economy to be stable and inflation low. There are obvious political impacts, with insolvency rising to record levels and complaints over the rising prices of mortgages.Before Bank of England independence, the Chancellor may be tempted to cut interest rates before elections. If Brown still had control over interest rates, he may be tempted to cut them, make capital cheaper and therefore encourage people to borrow, especially if he
The end is nigh 2007-05-10 17:02:00 Blair has announced the date of his departure from No. 10 as June 27th, and it is now official that he is leaving. After ten years of questions over when he will step aside for Gordon Brown, Blair has made it official and is vacating No. 10 in a matter of weeks. There is little point discussing the moves the Blairites will need to make, or the steps Brown will need to enact - this resignation is not a surprise and plans are already in place. His resignation speech is much more interesting.The speech was rather humble and understated, without the showmanship he is often associated with. There were his traditional nods to history and to his 'legacy' or reputation: There's obviously judgments to be made on my premiership and in the end that is for you the people to make.He also restated his Third Way principles: And all of that was curiously symbolised, you know, in the politics of the time. You had choices. You stood for individual aspiration and getting on in life, or for social c
What are you asking? [PMQs: 09-05-07] 2007-05-09 21:41:00 Cameron made a decent point this week in PMQs, in an exchange which is worth quoting in its entirety:David Cameron's turn. Tomorrow the prime minister will announce his departure, the Tory leader says, today he's splitting the Home Office. Why does Charles Clarke think the idea is "batty", he asks.Mr Blair says that that view is wrong, as it will put courts and probation together, while allowing the home secretary to concentrate on terrorism. Implementing the Tory plan of appointing a "homeland security" minister would confuse the lines of command, Mr Blair says.So Mr Cameron returns - quoting another ex-home secretary - David Blunkett this time - as saying that the split is "like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic". Is he wrong too, he asks.The prime minister repeats his case for reorganisation.The Tory leader points out that deporting foreign prisoners will now be the responsibility of two departments. How does that help coordination, he queries.Mr Blair hits back by quoting Tor Read more:asking
Sticky policies 2007-05-09 16:57:00 Alice Miles, writing in The Times today, tries to remind us all of why we will miss Tony Blair when he is gone:The public responds to the remarkable achievement of getting NHS waiting lists down from 18 months to 18 weeks with a shrug and a lead for the Conservative Party on health.So jaded are we about the Prime Minister – him again, groan – that many are not prepared even to give him credit for the undeniably great achievements of his ten years in office: peace in Northern Ireland, for instance, the DUP and Sinn Fein in government together...But from the minimum wage to civil partnerships, state-funded childcare to a well-resourced NHS, devolved assemblies and peace in Northern Ireland too, this is a man who has shifted the culture of Britain and the centre of gravity of its politics. Whether you bought into Cool Britannia or not, we are a hell of a lot cooler than we were ten years ago.The Prime Minister has had his kicking these past few months but as soon as he goes, the voter
It is not a war but a crime 2007-05-14 17:39:00 John Reid has spoken out against the Human Rights Act (HRA), reports The Times. He claims: Strict interpretation of human rights laws by judges “to the letter” was leading to the government being unable to protect the public properly, the minister said. Such laws needed to be looked at in a different light and not under the “old model of war”.While Reid may have a point with regards the status of a terrorist under the law, he is wrong to suggest that human rights legislation needs to be watered down to prosecute them.Most of the problems associated with human rights laws being used to the 'advantage' of criminals are misinterpretations rather than dogmatic application of the law. This is especially true at levels below court, where the myth of the HRA has created a climate where individuals assume criminals have rights they do not.The HRA does not constrain the government from protecting the public - their Acts of Parliament are immune to its jurisdictions. Even the Europe Read more:crime
From the Magna Carta to the Human Right Act 2007-05-13 18:47:00 Gordon Brown has begun to detail his plans for government, reports The Observer: A Brown-led government would:· Build 100,000 new eco-homes in specially designed 'green towns' so the public can buy affordable homes that have a low impact on the environment.· Have doctors' surgeries open at the weekend and GPs on call in the evenings so that patients to not have to wait for appointments during working hours. Doctors were given the right of opting out of out-of-hours care two years ago, under a controversial pay deal, signed by the then Health Secretary, John Reid, that awarded them a 22 per cent pay rise last year.· Strip Number 10 of some of the powers conferred on it by 'royal prerogative' - particularly the ability to declare war should only be done with the approval of Parliament. William Hague, the shadow Foreign Secretary, will push the issue in a debate in the Commons on Tuesday.Of this trio of policies, the last is the most interesting to politicos across Britain. It Read more:Magna
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Ignore the public 2007-05-12 18:00:00 Brown is wasting no time in defining his position and winning voters over, reports The Times. For the next seven weeks he will be working hard to finally get himself into the top spot in British politics, and that work has begun with a quick tour of his policy highlights.There are some good points being made - the end of spin, policy over presentation, the role of the private sector and competition in the delivery of public services, fairness and equality of opportunity, winning hearts and minds in Iraq, warmth towards Europe. Yet for a man who has been preparing for government for thirteen years, there is a little too much about consultation and "listening". For a man who prides himself on principles and policy over presentation, this seems a little shallow. Examples include: Gordon Brown promised an end to spin and the cult of celebrity yesterday as he promised to lead a “new government” with a “listening and learning” style of leadership...He said that he had learnt that t Read more:Ignore
His prince will define him 2007-05-17 15:49:00 Gordon Brown is now the only candidate for the leadership of the Labour Party after McDonnell failed to secure enough nominations from MPs, reports The Times. Hilary Benn, Hazel Blears, John Cruddas, Peter Hain, Harriet Harman, and Alan Johnson are running for Deputy.While this 'coronation' appears bad for Labour democracy, it may be good for Brown.If Brown was challenged for the leadership by McDonnell, the leadership campaign would be framed in a more leftist manner. The issue of Iraq would certainly come up, as would PFI, faith schools, and the special relationship. As the recent Fabian Society debate indicates, the questioning would be very Labour-centric (shocking, I know). While these are important issues, they may not endear Brown to the public as a whole.Without a challenge from the left, Brown will have greater scope to frame the debate in his terms. While Labour members will quiz him on Israel and Palestine, social justice, and higher progressive taxation, he will have gre Read more:define
A rapier and a broadsword [PMQs: 16-05-07] 2007-05-16 16:30:00 John Prescott takes over from Tony Blair at PMQs this week, and quickly proceeds to blame everything on the Tories. After ten years of government, that line doesn't work quite as well as it once did:Richard Spring quotes the chancellor as saying that the Millennium Dome was a mistake, while Mr Prescott had once said that if they couldn't make the dome work "we're not much of a government". Who was right?Mr Prescott calls it a "Tory mess we inherited". But he says that the government built the Jubilee line extension and decontaminated the land, he adds...Mr Hague is indeed standing in for the Tories. "He can be sure he'll be missed on this side," Mr Hague says of Mr Prescott - pointing out that he has been an MP for 37 years, with 10 years as deputy PM. Quite an achievement, Mr Hague says.But before he goes, will he admit that the junior doctors recruitment process was a "truly shocking piece of incompetence"?Mr Prescott ignores the question, promising to "play a part - not whinge o
Rationality does not end where the ballot box begins 2007-05-15 17:19:00 Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Bryan Caplan argues that voters hold an irrational anti-market bias:Why would the majority favor policies that hurt the majority? There is a good reason. The majority favors these policies because the average person underestimates the social benefits of the free market, especially for international and labor markets. In a phrase, the public suffers from anti-market bias. Economists have spent centuries explaining how markets channel greedy intentions into socially desirable results; how trade is mutually beneficial both within and between countries; how using price controls to redistribute income inflicts a lot of collateral damage. These are the lessons of every economics textbook. Contrary to the stereotype that they can't agree, economists across the political spectrum, from Paul Krugman to Greg Mankiw, see eye to eye on these basic lessons. Unfortunately, most people resist even the most basic lessons of economics. As every introductory teacher
Which school should I go to? 2007-05-20 15:45:00 Bloggers4Labour, writing last week, discusses the advantages of school vouchers, citing an article in The Economist:[...] Harry Patrinos, an education economist at the World Bank, cites a Colombian programme to broaden access to secondary schooling, known as PACES, a 1990s initiative that provided over 125,000 poor children with vouchers worth around half the cost of private secondary school. Crucially, there were more applicants than vouchers. The programme, which selected children by lottery, provided researchers with an almost perfect experiment, akin to the âpill-placeboâ studies used to judge the efficacy of new medicines. The subsequent results show that the children who received vouchers were 15-20% more likely to finish secondary education, five percentage points less likely to repeat a grade, scored a bit better on scholastic tests and were much more likely to take college entrance exams.Voucher programmes in several American states have been run along similar lines.
If the party want Brown, they will not vote for him 2007-05-19 23:54:00 Roy Hattersley, writing in The Times, explains what possible influence the next deputy leader of the Labour party could have:The new deputy will automatically sit on Labour’s National Executive Committee. He or she should be a responsibly independent voice, not an echo. That is the role that Jon Cruddas would occupy as deputy leader – remaining on the back benches and representing the party to the Government, rather than representing the Government to the party. He would not be required to repeat the prejudices of Marxists and Trotskyites, Bennites and flat-earthers. The days when the constituency Labour parties represented the wilder shores of politics have gone. That does not mean that the role of deputy leader should be a permanent feature of Labour's constitution. It should be abolished, as pointless, as soon as is decently possible. But in the special conditions of today – the party in desperate need of revival – electing Mr Cruddas would make temporary sense. He gets my Read more:Brown
Sell me a newspaper, do not give it me 2007-05-18 16:43:00 The question of media influence on voting behaviour is an old one, and one which is often brought up at election time. Often cited are the 1992 and 1997 General Elections, where the backing of tabloid newspaper The Sun decided the election, or so the story goes. Yet the presence of censorship and state control over information flow provides evidence that press influence is highly limited.It is worth first considering the position of the press towards freedom of information. As the transmitters of information between sources and the public, the press have an inherent desire for two things. Firstly, unrestricted access to information. Secondly, unrestricted rights to public that information. It is rational for journalists to advocate less government control over their actions, and for newspapers to back up this advocacy in their editorial slant. No newspaper, whatever its politics, likes the government influencing it - hence the opposition from the press towards New Labour 'spin' and t
Do not let them in while we are gone 2007-05-23 11:28:00 Immigrants deciding the outcome of elections is usually the rhetoric of the far-right, yet it is reality in Spain, reports The Times. The immigrant group who use EU freedom of movement to settle and typically isolate themselves once settled? Britons.Cricket pitches and bowling greens are not the usual stuff of Spanish politics, but issues close to the hearts of British expatriates are coming to the fore as Spain's political parties vie for their votes ahead of Sunday's local elections.[...] "The PP won here by only 258 votes four years ago - and the expat vote will make the difference between who wins and who loses," Mr MacShane told The Times. One of the most pressing issues for the British community in Calvià is the possibility that their beloved cricket pitch and bowling green might be developed by the local council into shops and flats. [...] The Socialist Party's new-found love of cricket and its efforts to tap British Labour Party figures are signs of the Read more:not let
Give the NHS some sugar pills 2007-05-21 11:51:00 Jo Revill defends the NHS in The Observer, claiming:'Seven years ago, we had patients waiting two years for a heart operation; now it's two weeks. Things are incomparably better than they were. Not just a bit better, an awful lot better.'[...]But to look back to what was happening in hospitals 10 years ago is to be reminded of how wretched health care really was.On 30 December 1998, a leaked memo showed there was not a single adult intensive-care bed available anywhere in the whole of England on the previous day. Three months later, the government held an investigation into casualty departments which had seen patients go untreated, some of whom had died for lack of care. The following winter was the same, with one woman taken 200 miles to find an intensive-care bed.Anyone such as myself, a health correspondent at the time, remembers walking into casualty departments which were more reminiscent of field hospitals, where trolleys stood side by side, where patients would spend 24 hours Read more:pills
Blair the saviour 2007-05-26 14:43:00 The Guardian reminds readers that Blair
's foreign policy was more than slavish obedience to Bush, and will be remembered for more than merely Iraq, in its report on Sierra Leone:To say Tony Blair is popular in Sierra Leone scarcely does justice to the intensity of feeling towards him in this small tropical corner of west Africa.His decision seven years ago to send in British troops at the height of a brutal civil war is widely seen by Sierra Leoneans themselves as the critical moment in their country's salvation. It turned the tide in the conflict and helped bring an end to an 11-year nightmare.[...]"He is our saviour
! Tony Blair is our redeemer!" Kalie Bangura was moved to cry out at an impromptu rehearsal of praise songs the villagers have been practising since the country's president, Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, promised this month that their hero would be returning."We would assure you and the British people that Tony Blair will get a massive welcome, a heroic welcome, when he gets to S
Keep it cool 2007-05-25 09:54:00 The OECD Economic Outlook (via New Economist) is pretty good for Britain:With business and consumer confidence buoyant, and foreign demand growing rapidly, the outlook for the first half of 2007 looks bright. Investment spending should continue to provide the main stimulus in the short term. Household demand is projected to play a greater role, underpinned by higher disposable incomes and yet another recovery in house prices, which are currently rising at a pace of more than 10%. Nevertheless, this is much below the rate of increase at the 2002 peak in the house price boom, and price increases are now concentrated in the south of England and Northern Ireland rather than being widespread. Export demand should also stimulate activity, although this cannot be seen in the projections because of the clamp-down on VAT fraud.The strength of the British economy is well documented, and is not the most interest aspect of the report. Most of it will go unreported, and the myth that Brown is bankr
You have to be a bigger jerk to oppose free movement within the EU 2007-05-24 08:48:00 YouNotSneaky has calculated how much of a jerk you have to be to oppose immigration. At the least, one has to assume the welfare of native workers to be twenty times to the welfare of a potential immigrant:So, for example, with the implausibly low value of theta=1/2 one would have to consider the welfare of the native worker to count about 20 as much as that of the potential migrant. With logarithmic utility (theta=1) each native worker counts about 26 and a half times as much as a migrant. With a (what I consider more plausible) theta=2 you need 55 and some migrants to make up one native.Now YouNotSneaky is US-centric, and the implications for Britain could be different. Most immigrants come from India, Pakistan, Germany, and Caribbean, and the USA (in that order). These countries obviously have very different average wages for low-skilled workers (where the main deflationary effects occur). Yet the key worries are not about immigrants from rich European countries, it is about poor wo Read more:movement
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Hanging is so passé 2007-05-29 11:14:00 Peter Hitchens writes some real nonsense in The Guardian today:How impossible it is to believe that several members of a Labour cabinet once voted to retain hanging, that the best speech against the Common Market ever delivered was made by a Labour leader, or that the most dogged opposition to legal abortion came from the Labour MPs from Bootle and Preston South. And yet these things were so. The Labour party used to have a real right wing, patriotic and socially and morally conservative.That faction has ceased to exist. It was destroyed by the creation of the Social Democratic party, by the purges that followed Labour's 1980s constitutional revolution and by the end of the cold war.Kinnockism and Blairism were both merely tactical shifts by the left. Kinnock's failed. Blair's only succeeded because the collapse of the USSR robbed the Tories of their claim to be the only reliable defenders of national security. It also undermined the belief that socialism could or should be achieved Read more:Hanging
You're not fooling anybody, Mr Cameron 2007-05-28 11:13:00 Cameron is continuing to exaggerate the dropping of Conservative support for grammar schools, reports The Times:David Cameron looks set to fire a member of his front bench who spoke out in defence of grammar schools in The Times today.Graham Brady, the Europe spokesman, was “severely reprimanded” by the Tory Party chief whip after he produced data in which suggested grammar schools improve the results of entire neighbourhoods.Mr Brady suggested that selection at 11 raises GCSE standards for everyone in the area, especially ethnic minority children. This came a day after Mr Cameron called critics of his refusal to bring back grammar schools "inverse class warriors".A Tory source said that Mr Cameron “hit the roof” over the comments by Mr Brady.[...]A spokeswoman for Mr Cameron said: “Graham has been severely reprimanded by the Chief Whip and told to stick to his brief.”Mr Brady is now expected to lose his portfolio in next month’s reshuffle.[...]The announcement o Read more:Cameron
Less tax, more thought 2007-05-27 10:54:00 Jasper Gerard, writing in today's Observer, rightly attacks the anti-City policies of Deputy Leadership candidates Peter Hain and Harriet Harman:Hain and Harman are competing to be Labour's deputy leader, and reckon they can drive party members into knicker-throwing frenzy by shouting very loudly about City bonuses.But if their aim is to divert money from private indulgence to public good - and not merely to show off their distaste for rich people - is this the most effective way? It is a long-standing frustration that Britain has lost the American - and continental - taste for philanthropy. But there are small signs we are entering a new giving age, learning from Gates, Buffett et al. Last week John Studzinski slipped Tate Modern a record £5m towards its extension. Now, City titans boast more about the size of donations than yachts.Sure, it is not enough: 1 per cent enjoy 23 per cent of Britain's wealth. Even if you accept City swells have earned their bonuses you might doubt they Read more:thought
Leave Blairism to the professionals 2007-05-31 13:53:00 The Conservatives are painting themselves red, reports The Guardian:George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, today claimed that the Conservative party is the heir to Tony Blair's reforms of hospitals and schools, not Gordon Brown.In a speech in London, Mr Osborne said Mr Brown was "lurching to the left" while the Conservatives were more in tune with Mr Blair's plans to give greater freedom to public service bosses and more choice to users of public services.[...]Mr Cameron has reportedly described himself in the past in private as the "heir to Blair", though in public has reassured core Tory supporters saying he has "real substance" and will learn from the prime minister's mistakes.Supporting Blairism is fine, and if the Conservatives want to endorse his Third Way they are free to do so (though it would be nice if they came up with something original, plagiarism is looked down on by most). However there are two problems with endorsing a Blairite consensus.The first is that Gordon Brow Read more:Leave
Ample choice, meagre thinking 2007-05-30 08:35:00 The Deputy Leadership candidates hold differing views on redistribution, reports The Times in its succinct summary of their views:Ms Harman, the Justice Minister, said: “We are not just worried about where the bottom is in terms of poverty. We are worried about the gap with rich and poor. You can’t have proper equality of opportunity with a huge gap between rich and poor. Do we want to be a divided society where some people struggle and others spend £10,000 on a handbag?” She was looking for the revival of a royal commission on equality to look at the issue.As I wrote the other day, equality of opportunity is not about taxing people who spend "£10,000 on a handbag", it is about ensuring that everyone has the opportunity to fulfill their potential. In a real meritocracy, anyone with the ability will be able to afford an expensive handbag. Ms Harman is right to seek the help those who struggle, as there should be a minimum safety net. Focus on reducing poverty, and leave the Read more:thinking
Throw that if you hate democracy 2007-06-03 10:40:00 Extremists have undermined peaceful protests against the G8 in Rostock, reports The Sunday Times: Within hours their demonstration demanding stronger action by the G8 on climate change, Aids and poverty had been turned into a cynically manipulated operation to ensure that news about the summit would henceforth be dominated by scenes of water cannon, tear gas and stone throwing.[...]I was heading for the city’s harbour with a group of good-hu-moured British campaigners when we noticed an outbreak of violence in the crowd ahead of us. It had evidently been organised by the Black Block, a group of black-clad trouble-makers whose sole aim was to goad the police.[...]We saw rocks being thrown. Then the rioters started to pull up pavement slabs and throw them at the police lines.[...]Among the beer and hot dog stands surrounding the stage, legitimate protesters, including several from Britain’s Stop the War coalition, were indignant that the real messages would be lost by the ac Read more:Throw
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Rollercoasters 2007-06-02 11:00:00 The latest MORI political monitor has been released (via UK Polling Report), and its headline figures are encouraging:The topline figures with changes from last month are CON 37%(-1), LAB 35%(+4), LDEM 18%(-2). The fieldwork for the poll was actually conducted prior to the recent YouGov and Communicate Research polls, but the trend matches that of the other polls since Tony Blair’s announcement of his retirement - a boost for Labour, slightly more at the expense of the Liberal Democrats than the Tories.Clearly a good sign for Brown, as he erodes Cameron's bounce. Yet the recent good press of the departing Blair probably had a positive effect, and the question is whether Brown can maintain his lead in the coming months. Then again, if his bounce continues, a snap election (and a 'real' mandate) might not be off the table.What is good for Brown is bad for Cameron. While he still leads, his lead is being eroded as Labour become more electable. A two-point lead is virtually nothing, a
Defend rights not society 2007-06-07 10:59:00 John Reid is seeking to toughen up anti-terrorism laws and seeks to allow police to hold terror suspects for more than 28 days without charge, reports The Times:The Home Secretary said he was also seeking a number of modifications to rules governing the detention of terror suspects, including re-opening the debate on how long they can be held without charge. Tony Blair suffered his first Commons defeat over the proposal to allow police to hold suspects for 90 days, a total that was later reduced to 28 days.Mr Reid said today that the Government believed there was still a need "to go beyond 28 days" -- an argument immediately countered by the Conservatives -- and suggested that longer detentions could be balanced by additional judicial oversight -- police must already apply to a court to renew the detention every seven days -- and a parliamentary review of the process every year.The case for having police hold terror suspects for more than 28 days is seductive, as they will be
The winner comes third 2007-06-06 07:10:00 Peter Riddell reports on the Labour deputy leadership election system in The Times:This is not a first-past-the-post election but an eliminating ballot in which voters have a series of preferences from one to six. The second preferences of the sixth candidate are reallocated among the remaining five, and so on until someone gets more than 50 per cent.[...]Nonetheless, the figures underline how wide open the contest is: the 24 per cent share for Mr Johnson is only half the needed winning percentage. Second and later preferences – and not all voters may list all six on a ballot paper – differ in intention from a first choice. After expressing their real preference in their first choice, voters then tend to take a view about whom they dislike least, or who is least offensive to them. This is impossible to assess.In an attempt to gauge what the public, as opposed to voters in the Labour electoral college, think, Populus interviewed 1,006 adults online between June 1 and 3 Read more:winner
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