Owner: Market Rewind URL:http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Fri, 09 Jan 2009 11:17:14 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: Your Daily Equity Markets and ETF Commentary Site statistics:Click here
01.08.09 - Possible Post-Gap Accumulation 2009-01-08 11:26:00 After a near 1% gap down at the open, the S&P500 has found support just above S1 (SPY $89.80) and the VIX appears to be stabilizing near 43. While the daily VWAP has mostly flattened, positive Tick and AD line slopes are suggestive of possible accumulation at this level. However, Energy (XLE +0.46%) is once again the day's big winner, volume is light, down volume continues to outpace, and the big Read more:Accumulation
, Possible
RSI-mon Sez Pullback Was Overdue 2009-01-07 14:17:00 Looking down my blogroll, I see that the wise and thorough 'Woodshedder' has beat me to the punch with an excellent post on this topic, so I will keep this brief.As you will note below, the odds of a next-higher day fall precipitously compared to average for each successive day that the S&P500 RSI[2] exceeds 90. We had had readings over 90 for the last four days; nearly five by a hair countin
01.07.09 - First Negative Tick in 5-Days 2009-01-07 11:33:00 In a sense, the shocking ADP jobs report gave an excuse for the market to take some pressure off its overbought condition. A few days ago it probably would have rallied on "further signs of a pending bottom!" As noted in last night's ETF Rewind, the SPY RSI-2 reading had been over 90 for five consecutive days, this was an incredible statistic. I will post a mini-report on this ahead [POSTED]. For Read more:First
, Negative
01.06.09 - Sideline Fear 2009-01-06 11:47:00 It's bullish to see the market get taken up ahead of news risk, even if it was too much too fast given the results. In spite of the first reaction back down, a quick glance at bond rates suggests continued rotation back into equities on rebalancing and institutional fears of missing out on an upswing.Since the morning pullback to the daily pivot, we have seen nothing but a series of higher highs a Read more:Sideline
ETF Risk in Review 2009-01-05 19:04:00 As I sat down to write this article relying on last Friday's closing ETF Rewind (still in beta), at first glance I have to admit that the annual Sharpe Ratios made no sense to me whatsoever. How could Financials (XLF) be in the middle of the pack! Surely I had checked and rechecked the math!Then came the "aha" moment (sometimes we need to relearn old lessons, no?). Traditional risk-reward measurem
01.05.09 - Intraday Double Top? 2009-01-05 11:35:00 I think we may have seen a double-top on the day against large resistive volume spikes on each effort to break SPY $93.30. This is against the backdrop of widespread overbought readings (see Weekly ETF Rewind). I am also noting that the energy complex is largely floating this boat (XLE +2.59%)... Countering that technical crystal ball effort, cumulative tick and advance decline lines have been con Read more:Intraday
Weekly ETF Rewind - Week 1 (01/02/09) 2009-01-03 19:37:00 (Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)The first week of 2009 provided traders with a powerful rally over just four short days, leaving the S&P 500 up +7.3%. A good portion of this move came on the first trading day of the new year, flying in the face of the leading ISM Manufacturing Index reported at generational lows (Top News - Manufacturing at 28-Year Lows). Week Two features market moving Auto Read more:Weekly
December 2008 Rewind - Holiday Cheer...? 2009-01-02 13:30:00 By the end of a month featuring ever declining volatility and a relatively benign close, it was easy to forget that December
began with the fourth worst trading day in the history of the markets and some of the worst economic news recorded in a generation.This December, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and NASDAQ 100 cash indices posted mixed results of +0.78%, -0.60% and +2.18%, respectivel Read more:Cheer
, Holiday
01.02.09 - Sideways Trade After Morning Run 2009-01-02 11:21:00 Don't be fooled though, the Cumulative Tick is marching steadily higher and there is always a trend-day risk to shorts of a second leg higher into the close. The Trade
r/Investor dilemma is that we have a bullish day internally in a bullish time of year after a 20-day/ 50-day moving average breakout to the upside even as short-term oscillators are increasingly overbought. We do seem to be finding a Read more:Morning
, Sideways
2008 ~ Wasn't That... 2008-12-31 15:03:00 Which Was It For You?2008 ~ Wasn't That Great!!!2008 ~ wasn't that great... Either Way, Here Is To A More Sublime 2009:A Happy New Year to You All!
12.31.08 - Nice Holiday Follow Through 2008-12-31 11:30:00 Today's pre-holiday follow-through on strong tick action should leave the S&P 500 (SPY) above both its 20- and 50-day moving averages. However, should we close here price will be quite overbought on a very short-term basis. Read more:Holiday
12.30.08 - Trend Day Attempting to Evolve 2008-12-30 11:31:00 With the Cumulative Tick and the A-D lines looking strong, we have the possibility of a good trend day setting up. For that to be confirmed, however, we will need to break out of this mini-range that the SPY has been in for the last half hour or so post resistive volume spike peaking at 8:55am PST. VIX is down over 1% to 43. As of this posting; however, the immediate trend has waned and I will be
12.29.08 - Back to Bottom of Range 2008-12-29 11:41:00 Cumulative Tick and Declining Volume are very negative as the implications of global tensions finally sink in. For now I will be looking for SPY support between $85.30 and $86.00 with a view towards the lower end of the range if the VIX trend can't stabilize here soon (now nearing 46). Volume remains low. Read more:Bottom
, Range
Weekly ETF Rewind - Week 52 (12/26/08) 2008-12-28 13:19:00 (Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)This is just a mini-holiday post on this last week of the year, gang. Last week's light volume trade left mostly red on the screen, with the S&P 500 (SPY) down about -1.6%. In fact, the only exceptions were Real Estate (IYR +4.1%), the US Dollar (UUP +0.8%) and a handful of commodities.In spite of the holidays, trader's will no doubt be keeping a close eye on Read more:Weekly
12.26.08 - Rejected at the Five-Day 2008-12-26 11:30:00 Today's opening gap put the SPY just above it's five-day moving average. However, this proved to be resistance, as it often does, and price is now roughly tracing along below this line. That said, Cumulative Tick is largely positive, and Advancing versus Declining volume are keeping well paced and we have thus far found support near the Wednesday highs. Individual sectors are also divergent, indic Read more:Rejected
12.24.08 - Recovery to Pivot 2008-12-24 10:05:00 First Half of DayWe have recovered past the daily pivot line on advancing tick readings after opening at yesterday's closing lows on the unemployment claims figures. If you've never seen the source Department of Labor press release, it's worth a review.Second Half of DayFrom MarketRewind, a Very Happy Holidays to You and Yours. Read more:Pivot
, Recovery
12.23.08 - Heading to Retest Monday Lows 2008-12-23 11:35:00 After a choppy morning session, we have seen an interrupted decline on worsening Tick and Advance Decline readings. I will be looking for potential support near yesterday's lows, which roughly coincides with today's Support Level 1. Volume is again on the low side and the VIX remains moderate. Most leading sectors are exhibiting high correlation on the downward drift -- many will call this a simpl Read more:Heading
, Monday
12.22.08 - Hugging S1 on Negative Tick 2008-12-22 12:32:00 The S&P 500 has been trading above and around S1 (SPY $87.20) since the morning sell-off and break below it's twenty-day moving average. Cumulative Tick is trending lower, which doesn't have me optimistic on the day. Note, however, that the VIX (43) has been trending down along with price. In this regard, here is an interesting article from one of our new blog role sites, "Ripe Trade," on posi Read more:Hugging
, Negative
Weekly ETF Rewind - Week 51 (12/19/08) 2008-12-20 20:58:00 (Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)Another historic policy week left the S&P 500 down just a fraction after the Federal Reserve cut its key lending rates to all time targeted lows of 0% to 1/4% (SPY -0.1%). This move had the effect of putting strong additional pressure on the US Dollar, leaving Bonds at bubbly highs even as Crude Oil fell to an incredible $33/BBL, nearly 80% off its summertime Read more:Weekly
12.19.08 - Auto Nation 2008-12-19 11:19:00 The market has taken a small header since it's early morning run-up just past the S&P 500's daily pivot (SPY $90). However, the Cumulative Tick and Advance-Decline lines turned south at 8:00am pst, and price soon followed. We then got a small bounce at SPY $88.45 (near yesterday's lows) and a nice supportive volume spike occurred. However, price action has yet to confirm.I'll be watching this
12.18.08 - Small Caps & Financials Outperform 2008-12-18 11:39:00 The market is holding its own on this pre-expiration Thursday. Here is a terrific article looking at the upward bias during expiry weeks by MarketSci. Note the relative outperformance of small-caps (IWM) and financials (XLF) today. The dollar (UUP) has also caught a small bid for the first time in a long while.10:50AM PST - Slight range break-down on the SPY. I'll reiterate that there are several Read more:Small
12.17.08 - Bullish Pullback 2008-12-17 11:14:00 No contradictions in that title! After a morning pullback to the daily pivot (SPY $90.60), the market has found strong support at that level and is attempting an advance. The Cumulative Tick and the A-D lines look very healthy. I also like the relative strength in Consumer Discretionaries (XLY -0.09% vs XLP -0.34%). Although down volume has edged out up volume, the two are mostly keeping pace with Read more:Bullish
12.16.08 - FOMC Trend Day 2008-12-16 11:38:00 It's a strong Fed-trend day, although Cumulative Tick is now showing some signs of toppiness and we've seen strong SPY price resistance just over the $89 mark (spot on R1, infact).I'll be closing out my overnight long at this point and reassess after "the news" reaction. This will include looking at scaling up on a short bond trade with TBT - but I'd really like the dust to settle on that first an
12.15.08 - Negative Action 2008-12-15 12:03:00 As we head towards the earlier morning lows (SPY $87), note the following:o Cumulative Tick Slope Very Negative
o Rising Down Volumeo Low Absolute Advancerso VWAP Negativeo 5-Day Moving Average Decliningo Recovery Attempt Rejected at VWAPo Rising VIX (57+)10:14AM PST (by Twitter) - Possible Supportive Volume Spike forming. Coinciding with QQQQ S1 (last week's relative leader among the majors). Stil Read more:Action
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