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Perfectly Poised for a Melt-Up 2009-01-03 21:50:27 If you watched the first few minutes of today's Fast Money...
And if you saw Squawk Box, pre-market — first, the Trading Buzz segment; and then, the interview with Mark Hulbert...
You learned no one — no one — imagines the market might be on the verge of melting up 20-25%.
Perfect! The next several days could be interesting.
Picture a compressed spring about to be released. During the
Market's Worst Year in Generations Ends in Bullish Balance 2009-01-03 21:36:16 You have to admit. Today was a good start for a market poised to melt up.
I don't know if you caught my last Mr. Market
Twitter. According to Pete Najarian, fully one-third of today's share volume on the Big Board apparently changed hands during the last fifteen minutes of trading.
Let's have a look at this...
We could not have asked for a more positive development.
First, we had a gap Read more:Balance
, Bullish
, Generations
Volatility to Usher in the New Year? 2009-01-03 21:30:36 An insightful Fast Money, "Word on the Street" segment tonight. It was "Must watch TV," helping establish a sense separating the trade from the trend. Made the wheels on the bus go round and round, if you know what I mean...
One quick comment on the trend. There is an incredibly sour tone in most everyone's outlook. This, it seems, could make for a decidedly buoyant market ov Read more:Usher
, Volatility
Look Who Finished 2008 Ranked #375 of 109,702 on UpDown 2009-01-03 21:12:22 Did you notice my portfolio's performance on UpDown?
+43.2% in 2008 ... exclusively trading ProShares Ultra ETFs.
Not a bad year, considering I was in cash when the market came unglued in October.
Remember? I exited my Ultra Short positions on September 17th, thinking a certain "Madness of Crowds" was leading the rush into short-term Treasuries. Yeah, good call, Sherlock.
So, what di
Ready for a Pre-Melt-Up Mini-Meltdown? 2009-01-03 21:01:06 Gather 'round, kids. The man with the goodies is here.
(Those of you old enough might recall an anti-drug commercial some 25 years ago starring a "pusher" who spoke that line. You can blame CNBC for my recalling it. They're pushing their new feature documentary on "business" and "economy" titled, "Marijuana, Inc: Inside America's Pot Industry." Is it an ind Read more:Meltdown
Timely, Timeless Perspective 2008-12-28 17:29:37 I know how it is sometimes...
You sense a growing financial vulnerability ... greatly compounded by leverage ... atop an economy that can no longer add jobs in even the most mundane forms of employment (say, like retail). You read commentators who see everything going to Hades in a hand basket (and in a NY minute, no less). And you shiver to think how these historic risks might affect your Read more:Perspective
, Timeless
Chip Diller Speaks on the Bernie Madoff Affair 2008-12-25 14:38:49 There were no unexpected technical developments following today's abbreviated session. Some indicators more or less remain at critical inflection points (see yesterday's "How to Measure Blood in the Streets"). Still, short of anything unusual developing, all things taken together continue suggesting the market's anticipated surge higher could be imminent.
Indeed, it's possible the marke Read more:Affair
, Bernie
How to Measure Blood in the Streets 2008-12-24 09:25:54 It feels good to be bullish and positioned long, while at the same time having had enough sense to anticipate weakness, so as to remain unshaken at a time when fear is ill-advised. As best as I can tell the stock market is going higher before any challenge of November's low makes for more wild, wild life.
Now, mind you (and if you're a regular reader, you know this already), my bullishness is Read more:Blood
, Measure
Ben Bernanke Stars as "Arthur Ponzirelli" in the New "Happy Days" 2008-12-23 22:21:44 Ehhh. My bike likes a liquidity spike even more than it likes Ike.
Well, this is one of those moments when a picture is worth a thousand words. Let's just say Ben Bernanke
took a commanding lead over his Monetarist Monkey friend at Treasury for the coveted "Ponzirelli" Award.
I think if I were Ron Gettelmember over at the UAW, I'd walk out tomorrow and demand a tripling of wages starti Read more:Arthur
, Happy
, Happy Days
A Ringing Triangle Announces a Feast 2008-12-21 23:19:34 Serving Up Bear Meat...
You might have read in other places concerns about index price form since bottom on November 21st, as well as diminishing volume accompanying this. It is claimed the market's counter-trend rally is weakening — a rising wedge, a special kind of "triangle," is assumed to be unfolding — and so, a retest of the November 21st low is thought imminent.
I simply don Read more:Feast
The Fits We Must Endure 2008-12-19 06:05:05 Well, yesterday's marked weakening of 5-minute RSI became today's incredible sell-side RSI extreme. This coincided with a decline that was hardly notable on every count. So, conviction I have toward the market's pending melt-up extends to reluctantly accept the fits we must endure in the interim.
The urge to rant really is subdued by today's mini-capitulation. Looks a lot like last Friday (
A Different Green Acres and the Same Arnold 2008-12-18 02:20:09 Last week, I presented a chart of the NYSE McClellan Oscillator in an effort to deliver bad news to bears. Despite last week's modest pullback the oscillator remains positively positioned, showing no sign of underlying, internal weakness typical of a market about to head south.
Today, I give you the NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator, submitting that the market's counter-trend rally during the Read more:Acres
, Arnold
, Green
Ponzi Finance Calls Madoff's $50 Billion And Raises $50 Trillion 2008-12-16 09:52:51 So, why now the exposure of a $50 billion Ponzi
scheme? Why, suddenly, did Bernard L. Madoff volunteer to the sleepy SEC late last week his confession admitting to a decades-long financial fraud?
Well, I couldn't tell you why. Smelling a political rat, however, one wonders whether this might have something to do with the crisis Vice President-elect Joe Biden predicted back in October.
Is some Read more:Trillion
Observations On The Trend, My Friend 2008-12-14 20:17:45 Here's a graphic look at conditions isolating the trend ... more or less supporting the case bottom is in. This is not to suggest the market cannot drift lower over the next several days. Rather, it largely intends to point out RSI and MACD similarities to the mid-January through late-March '08 period.
Unfortunately, there's no timing an explosion above index 50-day moving averages. It
A Taste of Things to Come 2008-12-13 15:21:44 Nothing like a little test of whether "patience pays"... Fortunately, we had a bead on today's trade.
Beyond this morning's projected price-RSI divergence, something else interesting developed...
Just before 3:00 p.m. yesterday (Thursday, 12.11.08), the S&P 100 gapped lower. This sort of development occurring intra-day is rather unusual. You don't often see indexes gapping intra
It's Like Déjà Vu All Over Again 2008-12-12 02:31:08 NEW RULE: Men wearing pink shirts have no business squealing, "The stock market is broken!"
How can Cramer say that? The stock market practically is the only thing left still functioning normally ... even if one were to argue its collapse has been rigged as a consequence of the uptick rule's repeal. (Just for grins listen which firms oppose the uptick rule's reinstatement. Do all have h Read more:Again
Bad News, Bears... 2008-12-11 01:44:18 A natural fear one might have here is whether the market's bounce off late-November's bottom is but a brief correction in an ongoing slide yet to be completed. Indeed, it's possible the stock market's decline from October 2007 — that is, this particular phase of it — has not yet reached bottom.
Wisely being open to this possibility, let's take a closer look at conditions over the past year Read more:Bad News
, Bears
The Return of Animal Spirits 2008-12-10 09:29:08 Might be but one more day's doubt to speak
Then, an historic year of Monetarist Monkey mystique
Could juke Monsieur Market with a little Marek Malik...
(Turning the Shempster from "Wait and See" into a raging bull by the end of the week)...
One interesting development I might just as well have noted yesterday, and find all the more compelling today, is the apparent return of " Read more:Animal
, Return
, Spirits
Jesus H. Christ, Give Me a Sign! 2008-12-09 00:48:55 Then the Pharisees and Sadducees came, and testing Him asked that He would show them a sign from heaven. He answered and said to them, "When it is evening you say, 'It will be fair weather for the sky is red' and in the morning , 'It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but you cannot discern the signs of the Read more:Christ
, Jesus
The q Ratio ... Bullish Technicals ... and Near-Term Resistance 2008-12-08 19:03:05 Whether or not the stock market's bottom is in (right now, I believe it probably is), there's little doubt the path of least resistance over months ahead points higher.
So, allow me to present a brief view substantiating this outlook. And in the process let's get a better sense of where the market's projected turn higher is poised to meet serious resistance ... at least for a time.
First, Read more:Bullish
, Ratio
, Resistance
Who's Your Daddy? 2008-12-08 03:03:07 Yesterday, the simple message was... "So, now we await a price-RSI divergence on the sell-side to indicate an imminent charge higher."
500,000 disillusioned souls victimized by the magic of the marketplace ... precipitating a well-contained grind lower at the open ... and wa la! We have another Nervous Nelly Shakedown serving our bullish gratification with the promise of more good thing Read more:Daddy
Halting Hedge Fund Redemptions 2008-12-05 22:31:37 Just a quick technical commentary today, because absolutely nothing about my outlook has changed...
Despite on Monday having assumed bottom is near, but not yet in ... yesterday I presented a possibility suggesting bottom, indeed, has been reached. Appreciating the value of a contrarian's vision and not at all worried about what another 300,000 Americans put out of work will mean for immediate Read more:Hedge
Poisoning the Chicken Feed 2008-12-04 04:04:58 So, did you check out the Bespoke Investment Group piece I pointed out yesterday?
Eight of the ten worst trading days in 2008 occurred after the market set its intra-day low on October 10th. If ever there was evidence of a Nervous Nelly Shakedown, this is it. Strange how these sharp breaks are unfolding within an otherwise sideways trading market. In all my nearly twenty-five years of closely Read more:Chicken
A Great Calamity is No Substitute for Great Depression II 2008-12-03 13:28:51 Have you heard? We're in a recession.
Why, after $8+ trillion of stimulus, would this flea-ridden dog need play? Anyone but me notice how President-elect Carter always mentions the word "sacrifice" when commenting on the coming economic "change you can believe in?"
Sacrifice! This all hinges on everyone's docile acceptance the current period bears some similarity to recession Read more:Great
, Substitute
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