Owner: Keene Weather URL:http://keeneweather.blogspot.com Join Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2006 11:56:34 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: The latest forecasts, alerts, and current conditions for the Monadnock Region plus coverage on the tropics and outlooks for severe weather and winter weather in the area. Site statistics:Click here
March: A return to real winter 2008-02-16 18:37:00 With our last snow event, Keene is now above its seasonal average snowfall. However, the pattern of the last 5 weeks have been far from wintry. With a generally positive or east based NAO, along with a continued raging La Nina, zonal flow across the nation has been above average with below normal heights in the west, and above normal heights over the southeast. So even when we get a strong cold front from Canada to bring below normal temperatures to the region, it never sticks around long enough for the next storm. A strong Pacific Jet whisks away the cold air, a ridge develops over the southeast, and the next southern jet storm system ends up being pushed north into the Great Lakes region. This results in a snow changing to ice or rain senario, similar to the last number of storms we've h Read more:March
, winter
Update on stratospheric warming 2008-01-27 08:45:00 Still uncertain whether this will have a significant translation to sensible weather at the surface. Temperatures have reached their peak at 10mb of 267K and have started falling rapidly back downward, as predicted by the ECMWF. Multiple date records were broken and the all time record was shattered as well. In addition, records were broken for the rate of warming. However, all this, as amazing as it is, does not consistute a major warming. As defined in my previous post, a major warming is an event in which the mean zonal flow reverses at least as low as the 30-hPa level. So far, the mean zonal flow has only reversed so far as about 25mb.Compare this to the major warming event in January of 2006:Notice that -25m/s anomalies reach 30mb, and the mean zonal flow reverses all the way down to Read more:Update
Broken records in the stratosphere 2008-01-25 10:26:00 I am not very knowledgable about middle atmospheric weather, however I know the basics. I also can tell you that a broken record is a significant event in meteorology whether it happens at the surface or at a height of 20 miles.The stratosphere is the portion of the atmosphere above the troposphere between about 12km and 48km, and 250mb and 1.2mb. In the lower stratosphere the temperature is at a minimum at the equator and has maxima at the summer pole and at about 45 latitude in the winter hemisphere. From thermal wind considerations the rapid decrease of temperature polward of 45 in winter requires a zonal vortex with strong westerly shear with height.In the northern hemisphere, every other year or so this normal winter pattern of a cold polar stratosphere with a westerly vortex is inter Read more:Broken
Winter eases back in tomorrow,Then full force on Monday 2008-01-10 18:58:00 Sorry for my absense from the webpage recently. In any case, a quick review: we had a nice fix of snow on consecutive days New Years Eve and New Years to end the month with 39.3" of snow. While Keene does not keep official records beyond 30 years (regulation for records and averages), around New England numerous records were broken for monthly snowfall including Concord, NH for snowiest December on record, and Boston, MA for second snowiest on record (missed first prize by .2"). A burst of arctic cold followed, but did not stay long due to lack of a solid -NAO block. Instead, right behind the cold came record warmth flooded into the area. So far a once 21" snow pack has dwindled down to 5", and likely lower after rain tomorrow
. So now that is where we stand: above normal temperatures and a Read more:Monday
Tied record 2007-12-18 13:31:00 Keene, NH tied the record low for December 18 this morning with a recorded low of -7F. The only other time to reach this temperature on 12/18 was in 1980. The low temperature is 21 degrees below the normal of 14. This is also the first time the temperature has dipped below zero since March 9th, and the first time this season.We are currently averaging 7.0 degrees below normal for the first 18 days of December for high temperatures and 6.2 degrees below normal for low temperatures, for an overall departure this month of -6.6.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) 2005-6, Sam Lillo. The forecasts made on this site are unofficial and sho
Snowpack 2007-12-17 08:40:00 average:December 16 departure from average:Comparison to last year:The current snowpack will be important when it comes to supporting below normal temperatures across the region. At this point, after a brief period of very cold temperatures through tomorrow, warmer air will become more predominent as colder air reloads in the north. However, the snow pack will temper the incoming warmth, allowing for precipitation events to be mainly in the form of snow and ice.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(c) 2005-6, Sam Lillo. The forecasts made on this site are unofficial and should not be relied on in life-threatening situations. For official
Significant cold next week 2007-12-13 07:08:00 Behind the nor'easter on Sunday (see details in the Winter Weather Outlook), the NAO will dive down near -1SD with the AO and PNA around neutral. The intense low pressure associated with the nor'easter will move near 50/50, pulling down arctic air into the region, with strong high pressure dropping near the Great Lakes Region. The possibility exists for a the coldest air of the season starting Monday with high temperatures between 15 and 25 through the end of the week, and lows dropping below zero for the first time this season. I'll have some historical references later tonight. There is the possibility of low temperatures reaching record levels, particularly on Tuesday or Wednesday.Another coastal storm could affect the region on Wednesday, but confidence low at this point especially bey Read more:Significant
GFS shifts west 2007-12-11 07:22:00 The 18z GFS shifted west dramatically with the major storm progged for the 16th. In recent runs, it has kept a slight westward trend, and now brings low pressure inland over SNE. This would begin to have precip type issues here, however way to early to be considering that. The westward shift is a very promising sign for a major snow storm in the northeast. QPF nears 2" across the region, which taken verbatem would support snowfall accumulations up to 30 inches, similar to the Euro. The models have had a tendency to overamplify ridging to the east and eject low pressure from the southeast. This has been shown in the past event, and upcoming one Thursday with the resulting suppression and progressiveness of the storm. So expect a some slight shifting back to the east in the models by Thursda
Major East Coast Storm 2007-12-10 06:49:00 The operational GFS has not moved much from its low track way out in the Atlantic while the ensembles are a little closer to the coast. However, the Euro has recently come in with a storm like no other. This solution would yield snowfall totals over a foot across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, maxing out near 3 feet in parts of New England. Below is one frame of the model run.This storm has been on my radar screen for a long time, starting with the winter season outlook, and it coincides with the NAO dropping below 0SD. The GFS was the first to advertise the potential out in its 300 to 384hr forecast when the complete opposite is liable to occur. However, it stayed consistent. The GFS has recently lost the coastal storm senario, now sending the storm into the Atlantic but continue Read more:Coast
, Major
, Storm
Review: A cold start to December 2007-12-08 10:49:00 The northeast has started the month of December
on a very cold note. In Keene, the average high for the first week of December was 28F which was 11.4 degrees below normal. The average low was 9.9 which was 11.3 degrees below normal. Compare this to the average coldest week of the year (Jan 8 through 14) which averages a high of 29F and a low of 8.1F. This first week of December averaged just .4F warmer than the coldest time of the year. In addition, the first week of December saw 7.1 inches of snowfall, on pace for 31.4" for the month.Below is a map of temperature departures across the country for the first week of December.Looking ahead, below average temperatures are forecasted to continue through this week, with the average NWS forecast high at 32.6F and an average high of 36.4F (a depa
Several potential winter storms 2007-12-06 15:38:00 1) Friday 12/7 - A short wave will swing through the region with limited moisture. BL temperatures below freezing and surface temperatures around 30 will create 15:1 ratios, with .01 to .20" QPF across New England. The NAM is rather dry, even with some areas getting nothing at all, however the GFS has maintained at least widepread trace amounts tomorrow, so could see a coating to maybe a half inch of snow through tomorrow night. A few places may pick up 2 to 3 inches towards the north. Temperatures warm as storm pulls north on Saturday. ---Updates in the Winter Weather Outlook2) Sunday 12/9 - Monday 12/10 - A thermal boundary will move south of southern New England on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures south along with light snow. QPF light through Sunday Night, but could see an inch of Read more:winter
Some longer term thoughts 2007-12-05 06:55:00 Still watching the possibility of a light snow event on Friday, and now possibly an ice event Sunday through Monday. Behind the latter system, high pressure to our north takes control, limiting impact of the southeast ridge. NAO and AO are both predicted to peak during the storm, and begin to fall back as low pressure forces higher heights over Greenland. Another clipper moves through with a light snow event possible around the 13th. Then, generally slightly below normal temperatures behind it.The GFS model has been consistent with developing a short wave in the southwest around the 15th and moving low pressure east into Texas. What happens after that has been all over the place, but the 06z 12/5 run today showed the dream solution: A monster low moving up the coast.Obviously this only som Read more:thoughts
Storm wrapping up,some thoughts on the week ahead 2007-12-03 08:22:00 Snow will continue to affect the region through tonight as the coastal low winds up in the Gulf of Maine. Low pressure could fall to near 970mb tonight. This will generate backlash snow showers that could bring an inch or two of accumulation. So all in all, looking at around 8 inches by the end of the storm. In addition, gusty winds will become an issue later this afternoon and tonight. All information on near term weather associated with the storm will be continue to be covered in the Winter Weather Outlook.With low pressure bombing to our east, winds will shift to the north bringing back the cold air that the primary low scoured out last night. High today, with a rather warm start, will reach the low 30's.High pressure will move south tomorrow and renew a northwesterly flow into the regi Read more:ahead
, Storm
, thoughts
One model run - noteworthy changes 2007-11-28 17:16:00 The 18z GFS this evening had a slightly weaker low in the SW that stayed separate from the western trough. High pressure in the southeast still forced the low northward into the Great Lakes region, however as a weaker low that transfered energy south and east earlier than before. This allowed colder air to remain in the region longer. This is ONE model
run and also is an 18z run (statistically worse than the others because of a lack of new data). While it was a nice sight for sore eyes to have a trend the other way, Im waiting until the 00z run to start thinking about the GFS turning around. I've expected the models to trend back south towards the time of the event, so this may be it. At this point NWS has all rain on Monday, but I have kept ice in my forecast for Keene. Consensus on QPF i Read more:changes
Models track low to GL 2007-11-28 07:13:00 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEMSUNDAY. A COLD START AND POOR MIXING SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THEUPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE LOW TO MID 30SELSEWHERE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT SUNDAY. MODELCONSENSUS ALSO POINTS TO LOW PRESSURE AND ANY SECONDARY DEVELOPMENTTRACKING OVER OR WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.THEREFORE...DEEP LAYER COLD AIR WILL ERODE AND LIKELY YIELD PTYPE OFSNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO PLAIN RAIN. BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER AFEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION GIVEN THEMAGNITUDE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.ANOTHER SCENARIO WE WILL HAVE TO
BOX AFD regarding 12/3 2007-11-27 16:05:00 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THEREGION. AT THIS TIME...IT SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS MOSTLOCATIONS WITH VERY CHILLY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...ALL THE LONG RANGEMODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE OF AN INLAND TRACK WITH THIS STORMSYSTEM BEFORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT REALLY GETS GOING. THIS MEANSTHAT SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. ACROSS THEINTERIOR...THE SNOW WOULD CHANGE TO ICE AND THEN MAYBE EVENTUALLY TORAIN...BUT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT COULD TRAP THE SHALLOW COLD AIR INTHE SURFACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS FAR OUT WILL GO WITH HIGHCHANCE POPS WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILLEVENTUALLY NEED TO UPGRADE.AGAIN THIS SYSTEM IS MORE THAN 5 DAYS AWAY SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTTRACK AND PRECIPITATION TY
Arctic cold December 1 - 10 2007-11-26 06:41:00 Low pressure over the Great Lakes will pull a storm system over the southeast north through the Ohio Valley and across central New England. This will bring widespread precipitation over the northeast today through tomorrow. The precipitation began as a mix of freeezing rain and snow earlier this morning, resulting in a coating of snow and slippery roadway conditions. With warm air advection ahead of the storm, temperatures held steady through last night and have started to rise this morning. Precipitation has moved out of the area for now, but another area currently over PA will move in later this morning. With temperatures now above freezing, precipitation will be in the form of rain only. Periods of rain will continue through today. Cloud cover will keep temperatures around 40 degrees. T Read more:Arctic
, December
Interesting NWS AFD 2007-11-13 18:24:00 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --STRONG UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDTHURSDAY. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE DURING THEDAY ON THURSDAY. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY ONTHURS AS THE UPPER TROF REALLY DIGS AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A POSITIVETILT. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO FALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE COLDFRONT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOODAGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SFC LOWWILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF NANTUCKET THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOSTLIKELY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.THIS WILL ALLOW STEADY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FALLING ACRS A GOODPORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...TH
NAO Outlook 2007-11-13 06:31:00 See my post yesterday for the outlook of events through the end of the month. Overall expecting temperatures averaging 2 to 5 degrees below normal with 2 to 5 inches of snow through November 30th.The models are still having a tough time handling this pattern. The latest GFS runs have become much more amplified in the past 24 hours, including the front coming through tomorrow night. Timeline:-Front to move through Thursday, with 850mb temperatures possibly nearing -10C. Highs in the 30's, lows around 20.-Depending on hour far south vort max develops, could see backend snowfall through Saturday. GFS has moved the low north, but the EURO continues to show potential. If far enough south, could see significant snowfall for portions of New Hampshire. - NAO starts to recover - Inland runner per E Read more:Outlook
Warmth & Rain through WedBut Cold is not far behind 2007-11-12 18:25:00 First, a quick summary of events:Hurricane Noel blew through New England last weekend with wild winds and rain along the coast. The low moved north towards 50N/50W.A dry cold front then crossed the region Wednesday of last week, resulting in the coldest temperatures so far this season through today, including a high of 39 (first below 40) on Saturday and a low of 19 (first below 20) this morning. For the past week, we have followed a crazy path drawn by the models with very inconsistent forecasts. This was for a storm system moving across the Great Lakes region into PA and a second low forming off the M/A coast. The storm ended up going well southeast of New England, but in fact gave parts of Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts their first snowfall, Read more:behind
, Warmth
HURRICANE NOEL BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 2007-11-02 15:02:00 KEENE FORECAST:Showers will reach the area between 5am and 8am tomorrow morning. Temperatures will fall to between 25 and 27 tonight, however upper level warming will in fact keep temperatures close to freezing up through 700mb. Wet bulb 0C will be near the surface so any early precipitation will cool the temperature profile. Rain may be mixed with freezing rain, sleet, or even some snowflakes through noon. This will depend on how early the precipitation arrives for evaporational cooling. No wintry accumulation is expected at this time.OVERALL PICTURE:COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA TO WATCH HILL RI OUT TO25 NMANZ231-030815-/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.W.0004.071103T1000Z-071104T0300Z//O.NEW.KBOX.HF.W.0001.071103T1500Z-071104T0000Z/CAPE COD BAY-413 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2007...HURRICANE FORCE WIND
October Climate Summary 2007-11-01 16:26:00 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA855 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007...OCTOBER 2007 WAS VERY MILD AND DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE FOLLOWING IS CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER:OCTOBER 2007 AVERAGE TEMPERATURESBDL - 59.7F +7.8FWARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD OFFICIAL RECORDS SINCE NOVEMBER 1904PVD - 59.6F +6.6F2ND WARMEST ON RECORDOFFICIAL RECORDS SINCE NOVEMBER 1904ORH - 56.5F +6.9FTIED 3RD WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORDOFFICIAL RECORDS SINCE 1892BOS - 59.2F +5.1F4TH WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORDOFFICIAL RECORDS SINCE 1872OCTOBER 2007 PRECIPITATIONBDL 3.39" -0.55"DID NOT RANK WITHIN TOP TEN DRIEST OCTOBERSPVD 1.81" -1.88"(22ND DRIEST) DID NOT RANK WITHIN TOP TEN DRIEST OCTOBERSORH 3.12" -1.55"DID NOT RANK WITHIN TOP TEN DRIEST OCTOBERSBOS 2.08" -1.71"DID NOT Read more:Climate
, October
, Summary
2007 - 2008 Winter Forecast Update 2007-10-24 10:42:00 Issued October 25, 2007This winter will feature a battle between the Atlantic pattern and the Pacific pattern. More specifically, the weather across the nation will be determined by La Nina and the strength and location of blocking across North America and the North Atlantic. Right now, the northeast is coming off of a relatively average summer temperature wise. High pressure to the northeast and periodic backdoor fronts kept heat out of the region while the Mid Atlantic, Southeast, and Ohio Valley baked. The AO and NAO averaged negative through August and began to rise above 0 SD in September. The PNA has been positive through the summer and into September, dropping to around neutral this past month. The PDO has been dropping for the past two years, and will likely become negative later t Read more:Forecast
, Update
Heat today 2007-09-07 06:55:00 A warm front currently oriented from north to south across Maine will allow one last surge of summer heat into the region. Highs will reach the upper 80's in central New England to the low to mid 90's across southern New England this afternoon.In Keene, count on the 90 degree mark to be reached. NWS point is currently forecasting 91.Temperatures in the mid 80's will return on Saturday.Thunderstorms will threaten the region tomorrow and on Sunday as a cold front currently in the midwest moves slowly east. A significant amount of moisture is associated with this frontal boundary, and the possibility exists for locally heavy rainfall this weekend.Temperatures will cool off for the majority of next week, with highs around 70 through next Friday. PNA neutral, NAO neutral, and an AO going negati
Late March winter returns 2008-03-08 13:54:00 The past two weeks (February 23rd - March
8th ) has featured record amounts of precipitation for New England. There are four main storm systems in this period. The first two Keene was cold enough to receive snow. These last two have been heavy rain events resulting in flooding of rivers across the region.The issue with these last two storms has been a lack of mid latitude blocking resulting in low pressure in the deep south intensifying and tilting negative too early. Low pressure then tracked north up through to NY state. Keene, on the east side of the low, gets hit with warm air advection and a load of moisture from the gulf. Voila. A heavy rain storm. Working backwards, the reason for no blocking is a continued positive NAO. The last node of stratospheric warming occured about two weeks Read more:winter
Update on winter's return 2008-03-19 05:22:00 The NAO has finally progressed to a negative and west based state for the first time this winter
. Behind this storm system on Friday, colder air will flow into the region resulting in temperatures 4 to 7 degrees below normal through the beginning of April. The NAO began, as predicted, with an intense storm system, however it was supressed to the south (this past Sunday). The low is currently hung up near Nova Scotia. Coming up early next week is our second shot at a major winter storm. The models have been consistent in bombing low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast however have a fairly wide spread after that, and there are multiple indications of supression after the low moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. The Euro has kept the low close to the coast while the GFS has been steady in sendi Read more:Update
None-event next week,Still chances for snow 2008-03-21 12:03:00 The Euro continues to shift east, making it clear that the most SNE will have to deal with are some clouds, and perhaps light snow on the Cape Monday night. The 12z GFS has more of a storm in the forecast now, and a track further west, as is to be expected after its absurdly suppressed forecasts. However, the most that means is that Africa will remain dry, and Bermuda should start watching out for some showers. All in all, another one suppressed to the south.Still looking at below normal temperatures through the end of March and likely into April too. There arent any signals at this point for any large storms, however we will probably make out better with the smaller clipper systems than we have with the "big storms" as of late.Enjoy the beautiful day today (if you ignore the wind), and ha Read more:chances
, event
Still watching nor'easter potential next week 2008-03-20 15:39:00 Talk about a model spread. The op GFS is completely flat, sending the storm right through the southeast and into the Atlantic even south of Bermuda. The Euro has wavered a little, but still shows the potential for a high impact nor'easter for the entire east coast. The UKMET, and GGEM are in between the two extremes and probably the best compromise at this time. Also in the mix, the latest Euro ensemble mean is in fact west of the op Euro which is impressive considering it is the mean of 51 ensemble forecasts. The GFS ensembles are a little west of the op GFS but still suppressed very far to the south and east. However, the spread on the GFS ensembles is over 12mb for a large portion of the NW Atlantic.The main disagreements between the models that are affecting the storm intensity and res
Spring is here, but not in NNE 2008-03-22 10:08:00 A recap of yesterday: Winds gusted to between 30 and 40mph yesterday afternoon resulting in downed branches and widespread power outages across the area. In SNE, the highest report came from Fitchburg, MA where a 52mph gust was recorded. To our north, Mount Washington had an extraordinary day for wind, even for a place holding the worlds highest surface wind. A gust of 148.5mph was recorded yesterday evening, very close to category 5 strength, and close to becoming just the third time this decade that has happened. While snow pack diminishes here in Keene, northern New England snow pack is thriving after another blizzard hit them on the 20th. After this recent snowfall, Caribou, ME has received 184.5" of snow so far this season, breaking its previous seasonal record of 181.1" set in 1955. Read more:Spring
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