Owner: No Brainer Trades URL:http://www.nobrainertrades.com Join Date: Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:55:45 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: Live Trading and Anlaytics for the Forex Market - Daily Points and Levels. We utilize the same strategies used by institutional traders on an intraday and position basis. Solid performance and support from a seasoned professional. Site statistics:Click here
Love This Website And It Will Love You Back 2008-10-07 01:41:00 Welcome to the new home away from home. Over the next few weeks, I'll be updating the blog regularly with all the relevant info in regards to our general trading strategies, in addition to posting pending trades, updates, and market commentaries. If you are interested in receiving regular trade and commentary updates, you can subscribe in the space to the right. Notifications will be kept at a
Points and Levels for 10/7/2008 2008-10-07 00:09:00 Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 1.24 am EST
Recap from yesterday:
We posted a trade yesterday for a GBP long, which got taken out rather quickly on news of the US Fed offering approximately double the amount to banks and the SPX, and other currency pairs made similar nasty declines. In line with our rules, we don’t take trades like this during news releases, but this was an unexpected news release
Read more:Points
Points and Levels for 10/6/2008 2008-10-06 01:34:00 Monday, 10/6/2008, 2.36am EST
Main points tonight:
-Everyone is running away from risk tonight – UJ and carry pairs falling off the map as the carry trade holding onto little value. Japanese investors appear to be the only ones holding up from complete disaster, as they continue to increase international holdings. This is going to weigh on base pair (EUR, AUD etc) spot value. Goldman has a
Read more:Points
A Word About Fundamentals 2008-10-06 01:30:00 Monday, 10/6/2008, 2.32am EST
Last week I sent out an article I found online entitled “Dennis Gartman’s 22 Rules of Trading”. For those of you that haven’t yet had a chance to go through it, I highly recommend that you do. You can find it here: -gartmans-22-rules-of-trading.html
As you know, I read a lot of what goes into these forums and see
Read more:Fundamentals
Long GBP/USD 1.7430-1.7420 2008-10-06 01:20:00 Monday, 10/6/2008, 2:49am EST
Result -40 pips. GBPJPY sinking severeley, pulling trade below the level.
1.7446 marks the low made back on Sept. 11; looking for a bounce off of the actual monthly 50% retracement at 1.7420.
Points and Levels for 10/3/2008 2008-10-03 00:00:00 New site, new format tonight. I know you’ll like it better, so here we go:
Main points:
-EUR got slammed yesterday after Trechet said the words “economic growth is slowing” – before that we were getting long – anytime he grabs the microphone it seems its usually bad, bad news for EUR. Rate UNCH.
- US NonFarm Payrolls and the $700bb decision are looming for tomorrow. Right now, nobody Read more:Points
ECB Draining 200bb Euro Today, Bailout Almost There 2008-10-02 03:06:00 Dollar demand is heavy again tonight driven by climbing Libor rates and optimism concerning the bailout plan (I know, we’re all tired of hearing about it). But mainly, it’s the need for dollar funding that’s taking center stage right now. Cross Currency swaps on EUR/USD are at a huge negative right now (about -120bps), meaning that people are willing to sacrifice interest gained on any euro Read more:Today
, Almost
Basic Math Behind Making the Most of Your Trades 2008-10-01 12:07:00 Ok its time for some math....a little reward check and why patience pays off.
First off, I looked at the current track performance, using a +150 pip take profit and 5 contracts as a benchmark. I dont want to take too much time explaining what I'm doing here so its a little better if I just show you.
Lets forget for a second about changing market conditions, forget about sentiment hooplah,
Read more:Basic
Trade Planning and Mental Maintenance 2008-10-01 12:05:00 Daily Planning
My day always begins with me opening my charts and doing a basic analysis of possible market turning points. My most highly probable levels get a limit order placed on them, which I am quick to adjust or cancel if market conditions seem overheated or otherwise fundamentally wrong. For all levels in the range of the current price which could possibly be hit in the next day, I mark
Read more:Trade
, Maintenance
Reality Realization and Trader Reactions in Regards to Market Forces 2008-10-01 12:01:00 As we are all well aware of, the positions of retail traders comprise an extremely small percentage of the total trading population. As individuals working for ourselves, we have to recognize what the majority of traders are thinking in relation to the next move.
What we think does not matter. What the consensus thinks is the only thing that is vital.
Trader
s at major institutions are
Read more:Reactions
, Market
, Forces
The Most Profitable Traders 2008-10-01 11:59:00 The below list comprises a number of different observations of myself and others through experience working with traders of all shapes and sizes, and is equally relevant to all. Some of the information is rehashed and/or might sound cliche, but here it is:
They are experienced – Probably the most horrifying and worst myth shot out to anyone considering trading for a living is that you will
Read more:Profitable
Entering Trades 2008-10-01 11:41:00 We have developed a basic technique for entering a trade at these key levels, taking into consideration two important things:
1. We do not want to miss the trade by trying to enter at the best possible price
2. We do not want to enter the trade too early, creating unnecessary drawdown
A compromise must be made between the two in order to ensure we get in when we need to, and receive the most
The Rules 2008-10-01 11:37:00 As with any strategy, rules need to be incorporated into your trading plan, and followed objectively to ensure long-term consistency and success. The following rules are written for this particular strategy, though can be easily be incorporated into other strategies, as well. They are simple, and should be followed explicitly.
Never break the rules. The first rule for a good reason.
Never enter
Read more:Rules
Knowing if the Level Will Hold: When to Fade, When Not to Fade 2008-10-01 11:35:00 Confidence in any endeavor is usually just a function of experience. Trading is no different, and successful traders are rarely born overnight. From our own experience, we have developed a basic checklist in regards to when a safe trade setup stares us down. For newer traders, confidence in these levels will grow over time as you will probably see levels you have clearly identified act as a major
Stacking Bricks 2008-10-01 11:32:00 I'll commonly refer to price in trending environments as stacking bricks, because you will notice over and over again that price forms “blocks” and stacks diagonally, one on top of the other. Below we have a chart of USD/CAD. You’ll see that on 3 different occasions during this uptrend, a level of resistance turned into a level of support, a bullish sign indicating further price movement upw Read more:Stacking
, Bricks
Diagonal Support and Resistance 2008-10-01 11:32:00 Like Fibonacci extensions, diagonal trendlines are commonly used as a guide when attempting to enter a trade. They are at the bottom of our list because they are generally the weakest, and drawing them can be very ambiguous. Ambiguity is one word we do not like to incorporate in our trading. Because of this we advise you to use them with caution. Regardless, when used in conjunction with
Read more:Support
, Resistance
Fibonacci Extensions 2008-10-01 11:23:00 Market technicians have been using Fibonacci levels to identify turning points as well as determining price objectives for years. We focus in on them because of the fact that they are so widely used and monitored by analysts of all sizes, especially key market movers. Most trading platforms come with a Fibonacci extension drawing tool that allows you measure the length of a price wave and
Largest Single Day Drop in the History of EUR/USD 2008-10-01 01:42:00 There is just too much news to talk about tonight in depth so I’ll give you the key points:
-S&P 500 up 5.27% today on optimism that the $700bb bailout plan will go through, recovering from yesterday’s slump of about 8 ½%
-EUR/USD saw its largest, single day decline ever – daily range was about -415 pips (NY)
-Citigroup gets Wachovia in an inevitable outcome, absorbing about $42bb of losse Read more:Largest
, History
Dennis Gartman’s 22 Rules of Trading 2008-10-01 00:51:00 For those of you who don’t know anything about Dennis
Gartman, he’s been writing “The Gartman Letter” since 1986. It’s a newsletter that is widely-subscribed to by banks and fund managers all over the world. He’s frequently on Bloomberg. From his website:
“The Gartman Letter is a daily commentary on the global capital markets subscribed to by leading banks, broking firms, hedge funds Read more:Rules
, Trading
Performance Grid 2008-10-01 00:03:00 PERFORMANCE, BLOG + THREAD - last updated 5/14/08 - 9/30/08
Total pips = +5,396
(41 trades - average +131.60 pips per trade)
5/14/08 USD/CAD 0.9986 Long Max Drawdown (pips) -16 Max Pips +80
5/14/08 AUD/USD 0.929 Long Max Drawdown (pips) 0 Max Pips +250
5/14/08 EUR/JPY 162.9 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -4 Max Pips +164
5/16/08 AUD/USD 0.9471 Short Max Drawdown (pips) -4 Max Pips +30
5/16/08 AUD/
Read more:Performance
Bailout Resolution in Sight - Dollar Becomes the Next Victim 2008-09-28 23:17:00 Bailout resolution hopes are initially seeing a stronger dollar tonight, as discussed in the last update. In the greater scheme, looking for continued dollar weakness in light of these deteriorating conditions and an expected increase in commodity prices; so ultimately, my strategy remains unchanged. This initial reaction is to be seen as more of an opportunity than anything else, as there are
Read more:Resolution
, Sight
, Dollar
Long GBP/USD 1.7910-1.7920 2008-09-28 23:16:00 Cancelled due to too much short USD exposure (another trade posted on EUR in a similar situation)
618 retracement and historical support.
Short USD/CHF 1.1050-1.1060 2008-09-28 23:14:00 Result: +232 pips with -39 pips drawdown from lower level
50% retracement and historical resistance.
Read more:Short
PICKING UP THE PIECES 2008-10-28 00:58:00 Japanese equity markets showing big signs of strength today following the open, trying to recover from 5 straight losing sessions. US home sales came out a little better than expected today, and the US rallied early on, but just as easily gave up gains late in the day. Volatility is nonstop. In most parts of the globe, signs of improvement are still very scarce, but Japan’s rebound is sending a
Short USD/JPY 96.00-95.90 2008-10-27 06:32:00 Sticking right out there....if it gets passed though 96.90 and 97.20-25 are good areas as well.
Read more:Short
MEASURE TWICE, CUT ONCE - DRASTICALLY IMPROVING YOUR PERFORMANCE WITH PROPER PLANNING 2008-10-23 21:10:00 If there was ever a turning point in my career where I went from mediocrity to consistent profits, it was when I started putting together a daily plan on a regular basis. The exercise takes about a half hour to an hour, and when I say that things started to turn around, I mean things really started to turn around. I went from ups and downs, more losers than winners, etc, to winning every day, and
TAKE THE EASY ONES 2008-10-23 01:49:00 Staples would love me for putting up this picture. Looking at price action tonight, we’re seeing a somewhat difficult zone here, particularly on GBP, EUR and CHF that is going to require a breakout (in trader words, ‘patience’) before we get very good trades. Still, some good short term prospects in the immediate area.As usual, I’m compelled to stay with the trend for the time being, thoug
BEEN A GOOD WEEK... 2008-10-22 00:56:00 ….for the US dollar, who else? This USD uptrend doesn’t want to give up, and I’ve been playing dollar longs and short term countertrend shorts all week mainly on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. Pips have been coming pretty easily trading with the trend, and these short term bounces have been hard in some cases, particularly on GBP/USD. USD buying got extra nasty tonight, yet again.
Breakouts:
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