Owner: International Politics Today URL:http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com/ Join Date: Fri, 19 Sep 2008 09:35:54 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: A blog which offers informative, analytical articles about worlwide political events - in other words a blog about international relations/politics. Current analysis focuses heavily on the US presidential election. Site statistics:Click here
McCain's ways to the White House - 269-269 remains a possibility 2008-09-18 09:59:00 What am I blabbering about 269-269? The more I look at the map the more it looks like that it's definately possible. On the other hand, there are naturally multiple other ways how the race might end up - with McCain
actually winning. So let's look at those options first.Two days ago I wrote about Obama's four roads to victory. There I argued that his base number of electoral votes is actually 255 Read more:House
, possibility
, White
McCain's sudden downward trend 2008-09-18 09:59:00 The convention bounce was not to last. Most people who thought rationally knew that McCain
's momentum was temporary and that the race would be quite even quite soon. Yes, the Democrats panicked a little bit and it's only natural to worry when the polls don't go your way but those few who were able to observe the race without emotional involvement (that excludes me) were more commonly right in thei
Positive 'Palin effect' coming to a close 2008-09-16 13:28:00 It's been noticeable for days now and it's becoming more and more evident that the so-called 'Palin effect
' which energized McCain's campaign and helped him to a moderately big convention bounce is now ending. According to Research2000's and Hotline's polls Palin's favourability ratings have taken an impactful hit compared to the height of the convention.In R2000's poll comducted on 9/11 Palin's f Read more:Positive
The basics of tracking polls - do they matter? 2008-09-14 04:11:00 September 11th is not infamous anymore only for the obvious reason, it also marked the moment when there were four tracking polls published each day for the US presidential election (Research 2000/Daily Kos poll began). It's quite a number when compared to the last election or considering that it's still almost two months to the election day. However, a sheer quantity of polls doesn't necessarily Read more:matter
ABC of negative campaigning 2008-09-30 17:23:00 Negative campaigning
is a famous phenomenom and it has also been theorized and made into general rules. First, the effect of negative campaigning is that it bumps people into undecided category and therefore its prime impact is not necessarily luring undecideds to your side but to turn your opponent's supporters into undecideds. Second, negative attacks are far more frequent to be done by the trai
ABC of strategic voting 2008-09-30 17:20:00 Strategic voting is a theory which argues that voters do not only vote for a candidate they want to win the most but that they also engage in strategic or tactical voting by voting for another candidate if they think it's more advantegous for their cause. There are many different theoretical approaches to strategic voting but they are all based on the idea of rational choice theory. According to t
Site status update 2008-09-26 15:13:00 It's been a crazy few days. McCain suspending his campaign was something that few would have anticipated. Now the debabe is on so for now it's best to wait and see how it plays out. Things are looking really bright for Obama but as we have noticed, things can really change in just a couple of days.Now to the main point of this post. This blog is two weeks old today and we've seen a pretty steady g
Remember New Hampshire 2008-09-23 15:21:00 New Hampshire
could be the ultimate deciding state of all. There are still many variables and countless scenarios of how this race might turn out but I'm a bit irritated by the lack of polling in New Hampshire. Yes, it's only four electoral votes but those EV's can be absolutely crucial and definately worth more attention and polling. It's a very close state, a very independent-minded state and a Read more:Remember
Campaign strategy videos 2008-09-20 04:47:00 Here's a light appetite for all US election enthusiasists. Both campaigns have released videos
where their campaign managers talk strategy. David Plouffe's (Obama) most recent one is from 09/16 and Rick Davis' (McCain) is unfortunately all the way back from June.While both videos quite obviously don't contain any mind-blowing new info, they're still pretty intriguing. Plouffe's video is up to date Read more:Campaign
Obama's three weak spots 2008-09-19 12:07:00 After McCain's bounce Obama
's rise in the polls has been bigger and more sudden than expected. Financial crisis and McCain's minor gaffes have played right into Obama's hands. The conventional wisdom is that the first debate will be crucial and possibly game-changing. That may very well be true and McCain can't slip too much behind in the polls before it.To put it simply there are practically just Read more:spots
McCain has attacked two of Obama's three weak spots - one remains 2008-10-19 10:29:00 As I listed over a month ago, three areas that can be used or perceived as Obama
's weak spots
are taxes, softness on foreign policy and image politics. McCain
has attacked Obama for his ties with Ayers for quite some time now and has therefore used the 'image politics' card that was perhaps inevitable - Obama's not like us, he's strange or risky or elite etc. Take your pick. This time McCain chose
The debate - much fuss but likely little effect 2008-10-15 15:39:00 The debate tonight has drawn a lot of attention and has created intense speculation about McCain's supposedly harder stance and more direct attacks against Obama. While it's probably true that McCain will try to land a knock-out punch more eagerly than before it's unlikely
that we're going to see one, even if McCain goes into full attack mode. That wouldn't be very wise though, because the negativ Read more:effect
, little
Women and the debates will seal the deal for Obama 2008-10-14 07:04:00 Obama is in all likelyhood going to win the election. The decisive factors besides the financial crisis in his up-coming victory are women and the debate performances.It is clear at this point that women have not been persuaded by the Palin pick to vote for McCain. Women
have traditionally been more Democratic and in this election the trend is as strong as ever. The strategy of picking Palin and l Read more:debates
, Obama
The tracking polls have been very stable 2008-10-13 11:54:00 A lot is going on around the election all the time. Debates, speeches, ads, attacks - the campaigning never stops and the press is more involved than ever now that there's only three weeks to the election day. The remarkable thing is that since the VP debate on 10/02 the tracking poll numbers haven't really moved. They have actually been very stable. Many pundits and casual followers alike thought
Election fraud a serious threat 2008-10-12 06:04:00 The electronic voting systems have long been suspect of being unsafe. One of the most famous recent reports is Ohio secretary of state Jennifer Brunner's EVEREST report (an article, the report). Electionfraud
is not a wild conspiracy theory but a real threat
concerning the electronic voting systems around the US and which hasn't been discussed widely enough.One of the more famous voting machine h Read more:serious
Palin is not an asset to McCain but 'Troopergate' has little to do with it 2008-10-11 13:26:00 Troopergate in all likelyhood will not play a decisive role in this campaign. When Palin was announced as the Republican VP-candidate and the issue first came up many people thought that would be something that would be a major achilles heel for Palin and for the whole McCain
campaign. The truth is that it will not be a major event just because McCain is in such a deep trouble right now. Even Pali Read more:little
McCain's campaigning schedule - playing offense 2008-10-10 10:50:00 It's interesting to notice that 25 days before the election both candidates are still predominantly campaigning
in traditionally opposition states. Obama's strategy is understandable since he's in a comfortable lead in most if not all Kerry states and in a good position in traditionally swing and red states but McCain
's strategy is quite perplexing. Check out his schedule:Friday, October 10, 20088
McCain will lose because of the economy - but he wouldn't have had to 2008-10-10 09:15:00 A lot of things have happened in the last two weeks. The VP debate, the second presidential debate, the financial turmoil - all these things have been covered in depth in the blogosphere already. The campaign has really taken a dramatic turn as all things point towards an Obama victory, if not a landslide. Is it really so? Is McCain
doomed? Yes he is, and it's not only because the financial crisis Read more:economy
Today is the day 2008-11-04 14:04:00 It has looked like an Obama victory for quite some time now. And it still looks that way a couple of hours before we truly know. An epic campaign is behind us.
Here's my prediction:
Obama wins Kerry states (252 EV's) + CO + VA + NV + NM + NC + MO + FL + OH = 364 EV's
So the final result will be Obama 364 - 174 McCain.
Democrats will have 58 senate seats including the independents (Coleman defe Read more:Today
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