Owner: Bob's Blog URL:http://ibosblog.blogspot.com Join Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 07:47:44 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: This blog is a snapshot of Lebanon, its politics, lifestyles and history. And it will also include some book and movies reviews, and a bit about my life... Site statistics:Click here
Lebanese political rhetoric 2006-10-19 15:29:00
With each day the politicalrhetoric
in Lebanon reach new heights of stupidity, absurdity and narcissism... I am here talking about ALL the Lebanese
politicians, their statements are only old regurgitated speeches that can be summarized in a sentence: "they started it, they are wrong, we are right!"
Is anybody giving an alternative, offering a new plan of action? No, on one side a fierce power grabbing campaign is waged and on the other side a fiercer defensive action is taken.
What is funny among all these statements and counter statements, and the respective demonstrations and counter demonstrations, are the PR campaigns waged before each to convince the populace that these upcoming statements will be earth shattering, mind boggling and future changing announcements. And each time we get the same awful bland speeches…
But the sad fact about all this mess is that each leader's loyal followers are totally convinced by these divine revelations and regurgitate the same argument
"Peace Now" published 2006-10-14 17:25:00 One of the articles I wrote during the war is going to be published
in a three parts anthology entitled "Lebanon who won, who lost, who suffered" by Michael J. Totten. The author included many of own dispatches from the Lebanese-Israeli border and a digest of responses to the war from Israeli and Lebanese Bloggers.
My article
"Peace
Now"
will appear in the first part of the anthology "The Hezbollah War".
To order or review the anthology on Amazon, please click on the icon on the right side of my blog.
The Chicken and the Egg 2006-10-12 23:27:00
If one indulges in a surface overview of the current chaotic Lebanese political arena, he might conclude that there is two different factions locked in a fierce debate regarding a problem similar to the one called by some The Chicken
and the Egg
Let me elaborate, the first party called by some 14th of March, anti-Syrian, pro American or even the pro Zionist party, believes that in order to establish a strong state in Lebanon Hezbollah must surrender its arms and devote itself exclusively to political activities.
While the second party, called the 8th of March, pro Syrian or the pro Iranian party, believes that Hezbollah must not surrender its weapons until a strong state is built, and Hezbollah must continue its military activities and its "defense" of Lebanon.
Unfortunately, I believe that this is only a masquerade. Lebanon is currently witnessing one of its recurrent "upheavals", where the current power sharing balance is toppled and a new one is formed. And at the core of
20000 missiles! 2006-10-04 19:23:00 Yep that is the new official number of missiles Hezbollah has according to Nassrallah… Strange! But I will take this number at face value and try to apply some logic to it. Although I know very well that logic and Lebanese politics are two eternally opposite concepts...
The magic number was about 12000 missiles a couple of months before the war. Speculation and rumors put it at around 15000 on the first days of war, so I will use the 14000 number, as a compromise…
Now according to most sources around 4000 missiles were hurled against Israel throughout the 33 days of war. Assuming that the Israeli army and air forces destroyed only 15% of Hezbollah total missiles (although many sources speak of 30% and even 40%) So his total after the war should be around 8000-9000 tops.
It took Hezbollah six years at least (from 2000 to 2006) while the border with Syria, at that time was wide open, and airplanes and boats loaded with missiles could easily empty their cargo in any Leban
A House of many Mansions, book review 2006-09-30 12:20:00
With all the recent events, I went back to my library to refresh my knowledge of Lebanon's history. And believe me no book retells the historical background and explains why our country have been plagued by endless wars and conflict, better than Kamal Salibi's "A House
of many Mansions"
It is a very interesting and easy to read book, full of interesting insights and handles thorny issue with tact. Its title alone, "A House of many Mansions" explains the whole Lebanese quandary. All in all, the book is very informative and objective.
It starts with Lebanon hostory from WWI, when the Ottoman empire was crumbling, and recounts how Lebanon was created, and its early relation with its surrounding and the western world.
The most interesting parts ofthis book, is the explanations of Lebanon's problems. For example, the Author finds that one of Lebanon's main problems is that the Lebanese have not yet agreed on which country they want: An Arab Lebanon or a fully Westernized Leban Read more:review
, book review
My take on Brameretz report 2006-09-28 13:56:00
Several points caught my attention, in the latest report
of the UN International Investigation Commission in the assassination of Prime Minster Hariri:
1-There is an international dimension to the communication that took place or is related to the assassination and the bombing team (section 42)
2-The person who detonated the bomb is most certainly not of Lebanese origin (section 13)
3-There is certain individual had knowledge that an attempt against Rafik Hariri life's was imminent(section 50)
4-The omission concluded that the bombing team either made a failed attempt at Hariri's life or a rehearsal earlier on February. And this earlier activity allowed further investigative leads to become available beyond those offered by the attack of 14 February alone (section 23 and 24 of the report)
5-The quantity of explosive is close 1800 KG, almost two tons!! (section 19 and 20)
I wonder what will HA and Aoun say when Syria is directly accused of the crime by the international tribunal!
Hot air 2006-10-23 11:54:00
For the past month or so, Hezbollah and its allies have been raging a relentless campaign to change the current government, in which the 14th of March alliance holds a two third majority. (The Lebanese constitution stats that a two third majority in the government is needed to pass the most critical laws such as war and peace, changing the constitution…)
Frankly, the Lebanese political life is beset with deep hypocrisy (check my previous article) and this case offers a prime example. If HA is not satisfied with the current government (in which he and his allies has 5 ministers out of 30) why don't there ministers resign, forcing the majority's hands to change the form and the balance of the government.
Moreover, Aoun (who consider himself on HA side) has also called for a change in the government and for holding early parliamentary elections. So here also if they are not satisfied in how the parliament represents the Lebanese political life, why don't they resign from the par
Edicts 2006-10-25 16:56:00
As I have been closely following the US midterm election, a website Election Projection caught my attention. This website aggregates different projections and polls to come up with an overall projection, which in the past proved to be rather accurate. (Here i have to point out that he is a firm republican, although this does not seem to affect his projections)
The webmaster of "Election Projection" declares edicts, in which he states his own projection and stick by them all the way till Election Day. I found this very interesting and decided to call edicts myself, concerning Lebanon politics.
Finally if I am proved wrong then I will owe you an apology and will publicly retract my edicts…
Edict One: The current balance of power in the Lebanese Government, headed By PM Siniora (where the 14th of March coalition holds a two third majority) will not change in favor of Hezbollah or Aoun, until the current President Emil Lahoud is replaced.
Nassrallah's threats... 2006-11-01 16:59:00 Nassrallah has just raised the stake; it is time to call his bluff…
He want a larger slice of the government and a veto power, well you know what, the other party in this country also have demands: We want a real president freely elected, and we want peace!!!
So if Nassrallah wants to demonstrate and surround the Government Palce until the government resigns, then we will march to the presidential palace and camp there until Lahoud "the usurper" goes home.
Nassrallah also stated that he cannot trust the 14th of March coalition to rule the country; we also cannot trust him with a veto power. For HA actions in the government have not been very reassuring, as for example when Bashar Assad insulted our Prime Minster Hezbollah minister walked out of the Ministerial session…
It would have been much better to have a real open dialogue, with a agenda that takes into consideration all the parties issues and misgivings, in order to find a compromise (such as changing the president an Read more:threats
Cry Havoc... 2006-11-06 16:29:00 Cry 'Havoc
', and let slip the dogs of war...
The lines have been drawndaggers sharpenedand hearts are full with murderous rageonly a spark is still missing...
The National Dialogue version two has started. The rumors mill is abuzz with the news of a heavy verbal clash between our esteemed leaders. But at least they will meet again tomorow same time, same place.
PS: Hezbollah's delegation is headed by Mohammed Raad, known as a hard liner and for his absolutet loyalty to Iran.
The current situation 2006-11-09 17:41:00 The two main coalitions in the Lebanon (the 14th of March and Hezbollah and its allies) are at a deadlock, regarding the expansion of the council of ministers to include Aoun and to give HA (Hezbollah and its allies) veto power over the government and its decisions.
The leaders of the two parties have been meeting in the parliament in an effort to find a solution that will solve this crisis that could explode in the streets, if left simmering in the next week or so…
The official thorny issue is the blocking third. Lebanon's constitution states that a third plus one of the council of ministers can block the government's functions and even cause its resignation ( if a third plus one ministers resign, then the government is desolved)
Of course the 14th of March coalition, which currently holds more than two third of the ministers, is refusing any talks of giving HA this blocking third, linking the whole issue to the removal of the current present (considered pro Syrian.) While Hezbo
The masks are finally off 2006-11-13 17:22:00 The charad is over. Hezballoh, Berri and Aoun have finally revealed their true intention. They do not want the formation of an International Tribunal to judge the criminals implicated in the assassination of Late Prime Minster Rafik Hariri.
No matter what Hezbollah's arguments are or what they claim the situation is, this is the second time they withdraw from the government over the same issue: The International Tribunal.
The reasons behind their refusal are secondary. In any legal system any one who defend, hide or aide a criminal will be considered an accessory to that crime, therefore "J'Accuse" Hezbollah, Berri and Aoun as accessories in the assassination of Prime Minster Rafik Hariri.
Hezbollah just made the first step down the very slippery slop to civil war. And for what? To defend Bashar Assad? If they cared that much about Lebanon and knew how much the International Tribunal is important for the Sunni's why didn't they sign on for the International Tribunal and the
General Aoun's lessons... 2006-11-16 17:16:00 General
Aoun gave us, a few days ago, a lesson in the constitutionality of PM Siniora's government, after the resignation of six ministers including all the shiia ministers. I feel that Aoun is not the persons to teach others about such issues, taking into account his own history…
In 1988, in the wee hours of Amine Gemayel presidency, as no agreement on the next president was reached, Amin Gemayel appointed General Aoun to head an interim government, formed of six ministers (him included) three Muslims and three Christians, vested with the combined powers of the president and the council of ministers.
Shortly afterwards, the three Muslims ministers resigned and Aoun insisted on his government's constitutionality and stayed in office (as an interim Prime Minster) for two additional years.
Compared to day situation it is clear how objective is Genral Aoun's lesson...
Waiting! 2006-11-21 12:34:00 It is how Lebanon is feeling at the moment, how it has been feeling for the as long as I can remember…
Waiting
for the war to start, and then for it to end… Waiting for an occupation to start and then end and for another one to start and then end...Waiting for the next assassination, and then waiting for next explosion...Waiting for the results for the national dialogue and then waiting for national consultation…waiting for another war to start and then to end… Waiting… just waiting…
These days the waiting is even worse… we are waiting for what will happen… for hell to break loose... for civil war… but still only waiting…
The tension is palpable and the pressure is suffocating. No one dares plan for more than a day or two ahead, for who knows what will happen meanwhile.
It is as if we live in a country with no future, just an extended present, and an overwhelming past.
Another death… 2006-11-21 21:50:00
Once more our dark fate strikes again, and another member of the 14th of March is killed. Minister Pierre Gemayiel, 34 years old, was shot to death
this afternoon in plain daylight close to Beirut.
Most of Syria's allies have restarted their attacks while Pierre Gumayiel's blood is not yet cold. Their arguments? The same old ones: 14th of March are with America, they hold the government so this assassination is their responsibility; forgetting the facts that Syria and its allies still hold the border police (Amen Aam) so anyone from Syria can come in and out with no hindrance.
It has not been hours yet and the vultures have gathered and they accuse! Yes accuse the 14th of March of killing one of its members, citing the argument that this killing is too convenient for March the 14ht and that it will bring them the popular support they lost, and that some of them (Geagea and Joumblatt) spoke about the possible killings of ministers, beforehand! Forgetting the fact that every time t
Why I accuse Syria… 2006-11-22 20:52:00 I accuse of Syria
of killing Pierre Gemayeil, because in all accounts it gains the most from this heinous crime. First and foremost, the young Minster is one of the 14th of March coalition (in addition to Saad Hariri, Walid Joumblatt and Samir Geagea and several smaller groups) and he is both a minster and a member of parliament of the slowly dwindling majority.Second his death further exasperate the relations between the 14th of March forces and the pro-Syrians ones (headed by Hezbollah and Amal, who are also baked by Aoun) and make it harder to find any chance of making a deal or a compromise between the two camps, pushing them for even more clashes, tensions that might culminate into a full fledged civil war.What will Syria gain form a renewed civil war? First a civil war will forever bury the international tribunal in the assassination of PM Rafik Hariri and the rest of the assassinated leaders. Once there is no longer a legitimate council of ministers then the UN will be unable to
22 November! 2006-11-23 22:12:00 Many people came to express there sadness and their anger with the never ending assassination and violence. The crowds were big, but a large cloud of fear hung over Freedom Square, fear of what the future might bring, fear of the unknown, fear of a civil war that might engulf anything in its path.Â…At the end Lebanon's is split into two factions, and this polarization is only increasing. However, no party holds an overwhelming public majority. So the only way out is to sit and talk...Â…The picture in tforegroundund is of the killministerter, tbackgroundund is the entrance of freedom square already filled with people hourure before the official startNo arms outside the state's (referring to Hezbollah's weapons) A sea of flags...A picture of all the Lebanese leaders killed by the SyriansLebanon, a country for life... Read more:November
More pictures... 2006-11-24 23:56:00
Trampled posters against President Lahoud that roughly translate into "enough already". The other poster further up is about Aoun asking who divided the line (referring to Aoun moving out of the March the 14th alliance and allying with Hezbollah...
The beautiful crowd...
So many dead killed by the Syrians, Rafik Hariri, Gebran Tueini, Pierre Gemayel and so many others...
A brave demonstrator's much deserved rest...
Tic toc 2006-11-27 14:29:00
I fell as if I am in a movie theater watching a documentary of how my country fell into civil war. I see the images and hear the never ending speeches and the blaming, while in the background a ticking alarm clock can be heard.
There one single topic on people's mind: "what will tomorrow bring". And the waiting is excruciating, I sometimes wishes for the worse to happen jut to end this agonizing wait…
People are already in a different mind set, yesterday we were planning an outing in Beirut when a friend of mine, half jokingly, asked if we would got stuck in Beirut or we would be able to come back (referring to the fact that Hezbollah supporters could close the highway between Saida and the capital Beirut at any moment) everybody nervously smiled and few chuckle were heard, but we were all seriously thinking about the possibility.
And two days earlier my sister skipped a wedding invitation, because she was afraid to leave her children in the house, because "in these day
And finally... 2006-11-30 16:17:00
The time is setThe die castsThe men readyAnd sanity has deserted our small country
Tomorrow, Friday at three, Hezbollah, Aoun and their allies are marching on the streets in down town Beirut, where they will start an open protest that might continue for days…
With tension at a record high, I do not think it will take much to ignite senseless violence. And once blood starts flowing on the streets "c'est fini" like we say in French.
So if you believe in god pray, and if like me you do not, hope for the better.
Good night Lebanon…
Sanity! 2006-12-02 13:58:00
In the last two days big demonstrations have been going on in Down Town Beirut. They started on Friday, with a slightly bigger demonstration than the 8th of March 2005, when Hezbollah went down to the street to thank Syria, but smaller than March the 14th, when the current majority (Hariri, Joumblatt, and Geagea; in addition to Aoun who is now allied with Hezbollah) marched to the streets and were able to kick the Syrians out of Lebanon.
This time numbers are meaningless, the country is split down the middle (give or take 5%). The two parties must understand that no one can win, and the only solution is a compromise.
Unfortunately, Hezbollah and their allies are playing a very dangerous game. They are making the same mistake Israel made in its last war against Lebanon, they went into a battle with unachievable goals, assuming that they will topple the government. And the longer Siniora's government hold on to power, the more pressure they will have to apply, and the harder it wil Read more:Sanity
Fed up! 2006-12-04 21:32:00
I became so fed up! So against all caution and reason I went out for a drink in Gemayzeh, just a few hundred meters away from the place where all the protests were going on.
The streets were empty; the distant sounds of the protest filled the background. People walked briskly. And most restaurants were empty, the waiters idle.
We choose "Le rouge" a cozy restaurant, with excellent food at affordable prices. Even on weekdays the place used to be packed, tonight there was only one table beside ours.
I choose a "steak in a bagette" a very tasty dish, but all what we could talk about was what is going to happen in the next few days! It kinda ruined our evening. But I came to prove to myself that no matter what these people will do, I staying here in my country and I will always love live! No matter how much they try to frighten us, we will stay here, peacefully and endure…
Going out we bumped into two aounist, going home form the protests. I almost screamed at them, asking them
The 100th post! 2006-12-05 20:35:00 On my blog's one hundred post I would like to thank all my readers, hoping that my first 100 posts were interesting, informative and enjoyable.
Thank you all for reading my blog and for you support, silent or otherwise. It was a pleasure to interact with you and exchange points of views, and I sincerely appreciate all your comments and emails, both positive and negative.
Keep on reading and let us hope that by the 200th posts Lebanon will be enjoying peace and prosperity…
PEACE
The crux of the matter 2006-12-07 20:10:00
Amid all this talk of civil war, I think a small historical comparison is needed. Since Lebanon's independence in 1943, the country undergoes civil strife every 15 years on average. (1958 then the 1975-90 war and now 2006)
According to most political scholars two factors are detrimental in the start of civil war: A local one and an international one; a sharp internal division and a similar international rift, which supports the internal one. This was true in 58, in 78 and to a certain degree true today.
In 75, the war ended 15 years later with 150000 dead, 300000 injured and one million displaced (numbers that every Lebanese should learn by heart, especially these days) while in 58 it only took a few months to restore calm.
Several factors caused this difference, among them: Palestinian militancy was much greater in 75 than in 58 and international interventions (US in 58 and Syrian in 76). However, one of the most important factors was the role played by the army.
In the first days Read more:matter
If you had to choose… 2006-12-10 13:32:00
If you had to choose
between that angry, spluttering, warring and threatening Nassrallah and the calm, smiling, peaceful and reconciliatory Siniora, which one would you choose?
Which one would you choose, the one accusing his opponents of collaboration and treachery, or the one saying that we are all Lebanese and we should find a compromise?
Between anger that verges on hate, accusations that approach death sentences, threats and promises of nasty surprises, rhetoric that are similar to the one used against mortal enemy, AND a calm, smiling and reconciliatory tone that exudes confidence, moderation and peace!!!
Which one would you choose? Hanoi or Honk Kong!!!! Forever war, death and destruction OR peace, prosperity and a decent life…
The choice is entirely in your hands, for I already made mine…
PEACE
Content and package 2006-12-13 16:57:00 I think there is a fundamental PR concept that Aoun and Nassrallah failed to grasp in their latest speeches: packaging is very important, and some even say that it is as important as the content. In this case, packaging is tone of voice, makeup, setting, lighting and the clothes! And the content is the message and the intended effect.
Nassrallah in his last speech was visibly angry, tensed and at some points even screaming. Meanwhile, the content of his speech was mellow and he tried to make several overtures, stressing his forgiveness of all past offenses and betrayals. Even professing his willingness to share power with those he called traitors. However, all of these overtures were overshadowed by his visible anger, quivering tone and screaming bouts.
On the other hand, Aoun came out on TV with a serious steady tone and even tried to threaten Siniora and warned of a possible invasion of the Saray. However, Aoun was wearing a puffy orange sweater over an orange shirt, with an orange Read more:Content
, package
Next year in taboo! 2006-12-20 14:49:00 In the midst of this political deadlock, some Lebanese are feeling the brunt of these demonstrations/sit-ins more than others. And I am talking about the owners of businesses close the Riad el Solh and Al Azarieh squares, in Down Town Beirut. Hezbollah's sit-in made it impossible for many businesses to operate. Most of the night clubs in that area closed (Buddah Bar, Asia, Starlette and Taboo), and the parking lots that is currently housing the protestors' tents are obviously out of business. Of course, the welfare of hundreds of employee is not important to Hezbollah and its allies. As they are waging a crusade to rid Lebanon of this corrupt government and replace it with a clean one, which will eventually provide work for every men, women and child, solve all economic problems and enter Lebanon in a beneficial alliance with Iran and Syria!. Meanwhile, many young Lebanese are emigrating by the hundreds if not thousands; because Hezbollah's action has just cost them their jobs,
Anther bootched job! 2006-12-23 10:55:00 The General Secretary of the Arab League's initiative is as good as dead.From the start it looked barren, and knowing the past records of Amro Moussa that perspective was reinforced.
The Arab League and its chief officer have been notoriously ineffective in most of its mediation throughout the Arab world, from the first Iraq war, to the second, to Sudan's Darfour genocide and finally Lebanon.
Now what? The opposition are promising further escalation after the holidays, speaking of closing roads, public institutions and service (they have a fetish about shutting down the airport and the port) Meanwhile 14 March are steadfast and adamant on passing the International Tribunal before making any concessions.
Amro Moussa warned of any further escalations, but I do not think that any one will heed his call. The future look bleaker still, but at least we have these last couple of days to have fun and to bid this awful year a final goodbye, hoping that the next one will be better…
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