Owner: Bob's Blog URL:http://ibosblog.blogspot.com Join Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 07:47:44 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: This blog is a snapshot of Lebanon, its politics, lifestyles and history. And it will also include some book and movies reviews, and a bit about my life... Site statistics:Click here
Another setback for the spin masters! 2007-03-16 17:24:00 After the previous International Investigation Committee in the assassination of PM Rafik Hariri was published, Hezbollah's media team picked up a small point and spin it out of proportion to a point that it became a ready and easy answer used by any 8th march politicians when asked about the tribunal and the investigation. The Judge responsible of the investigation, Bramertz, stated in his previous report that ten countries were not helping the investigation. Hezbollah and its allies started fabricating stories claiming that the countries were France, the US and Saudi Arabia and absolved Syria of any blame , based on the fact that Bramertz said that the Syrian Republic was cooperating, accusing instead the ten unnamed countries (which the spin masters named nevertheless) and of course their perpetual culprit: Israel. The issue grew so much out of proportion that any discussion of the tribunal usually brought it up, accusing the 14 March of being biased against Syria, and wonde
When Love Is a Casualty of War 2007-03-21 12:31:00 Here is a very nice article by Joshua Gross, on how the last summer war affected his relation with his girl friend which happen to be Lebanese, while is he is Jewish:My Lebanese girlfriend does not want to listen to The Cure’s song “Killing an Arab.”“Turn it off,” she demands.This is odd. Helen is a huge Cure fan; in fact, I never really listened to The Cure until we started dating. I turn around to face her, my mind racing to produce some witty remark that will make her laugh and defuse the sudden tension, but our eyes meet and I am utterly disarmed. I hear her sigh as she walks away.It’s not that Helen doesn’t like this particular song, it’s that she doesn’t like songs about killing Arabs, especially when in real life, our peoples are killing each other day after day. We cannot enjoy the song’s catchy rhythm or ironic lyrics when bombs fall and Katyushas fly. What used to be a harmless song has become an unwanted reminder of the gulf that exists between us.Togeth Read more:Casualty
And the Arab summit is over… 2007-03-29 18:01:00 The latest Arab League Summit ended and of course nothing changed and nothing was done, as always. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the latest period of time has ended his period of calm has just ended. The opposition will once more escalate its action to up the stakes. Of course the consequence of such an action will be fully blamed on 14 March… So all in all nothing new under the sun. Lahoud was humiliated twice in the summit. Once for not being greeted by the Saudi king on his arrival, like all the other leaders, and twice for the King’s refusal to meet him in private while meeting PM Siniora. Meanwhile Lahoud was so happy to meet up with Bashar Assad that his grin almost split his face. Ahhh that much love can only be for the interests of Lebanon doesn’t it… On the home front, a frigid stand still permeates the political arena. Some are waiting for the unfolding of the crisis between Iran and the west, other are waiting for the change in the west leadership to take place.
A new perspective! 2007-04-05 15:32:00 Here a piece by our friend Slavik Mike that brings a rather innovative and very interesting perspective to the Middle East conflicts and how to solve them. Enjoy, and thank you Mike! So for your consideration, an epiphany on the whole matter: I've grown tired and ultimately no longer interested in playing out the status quo blogosphere tit-for-tat right vs. left comment battle. I say "right" to refer to March 14th and the broader population that actually thinks a secular peaceful Middle East (ME) composed of law abiding nation states is a great idea. I say "left" to refer to those others that like the concept of people being free of oppressive governments, but find themselves caught on the backs of their heels forced to defend the actions of their tyrannical governments and foreign interlocutors as a way of standing up to what they view as Western imperialism that seeks to wipe out their culture and heritage. If I've proscribed the wrong labels, I apologize, I'm
Nassrallah's new face 2007-04-12 15:34:00 In the last world war, cities used to have many sirens to warned against any incoming airplanes. So each time the population heard the distinct sound of these sirens they would rush to their hiding places in fear… Nowadays in Lebanon every time Hezbollah’s leader issue a speech, fear spreads among the Lebanese. Nassrallah speeches filled with anger and threats have become a dreaded event in the already tensed daily life in Lebanon, filled with bomb scares and never ending rumors…. Nassrallah brings nothing new to the table; he keeps on refusing compromises and solutions. He no longer accepts the third plus one of the council of ministers, and unequivocally refused the International Tribunal, claiming it was just a sham to legitimate the already decided upon sentences. The best we can hope for now is to keep the current deadlock until the next presidential election in September, hoping beyond hope the country’s economic situation holds out that long. I will leave y
Civil war 2007-04-16 17:18:00 Last week, the Lebanese people commemorated the 22 anniversary of start of civil war. And each Thursday Marcel Ghanem, Lebanon's most prominent TV presenter, hosts a talk show, "Kalem al Nass" on LBC. So on the eve of that infamous anniversary the show was about the civil war, and Ghanem asked the Lebanese a crucial question "will you be willing to take up arms again and fight your fellow Lebanese…"Unfortunately, 9 out of 10 male callers professed their willingness, even their eagerness to fight. I was not surprised… You could feel this "esprit de guerre" or war logic in the streets, in conversations, in any social gathering, even between educated people.Lebanese politicians are famous for their changing allegiance and overnight alliances, yet the current rhetoric of exclusion and accusations have deeply affected the population at large. I fear that the gaping chasm which divides our society will need years and years to heal, if the situation does not deteriorate.Fina Read more:Civil
Alas… 2007-04-27 16:58:00 The two young men have been found dead. Apparently they were killed shortly after they were kidnapped. You could feel the country boiling, anger is spreading... Political leaders from all over the spectrum have called for calm and restraint. Joumblatt. despite all the threats that he faces, marched in the funeral procession of the two boys, stressing the need for clam and civil peace. Ironically Joumblatt in the last weeks, have been constantly accused by Hezbollah of working towards igniting a new civil war, is the one who is literally keep the nightmarish genie inside the bottle. He only needs to give the tiniest of nods and all hell will break loose. Nevertheless, a few days from now, Hezbollah will restart their incessant lies about Joumblatt's efforts to start the second civil war… Meanwhile, the two young men are dead, caught in a cross fire, futile death...meaningless...hopefully the last...But I fear it is only the beginning...
Will today be the day! 2007-04-26 16:38:00 In the suffocating deadlock griping Lebanon, I keep wondering will today become the official day the second civil war started on?The first civil war officially started on April 13 1975. Of course many events preceded this date, but everything needs a beginning and on that date a bus travelling through the once Christian neighbored carrying Palestinian was stopped and its passengers shot…So each morning when I wake up I wonder if today will be labeled “the day the second Lebanese civil war started on”Meanwhile, this day might have come and passed, maybe on 23 and 25 January, or even last Sunday where two young men (one 12 years old and the other 25) who support Joumblat’s PSP (Progressive Socialist Party, which is part of the 14 March alliance), have been kidnapped and are yet to be found…Yesterday, rumors engulfed the country, and the tension was sky high… However the situation is still dangerous, for if the two young men are not returned swiftly, or even worse they are kil
An intresting article 2007-05-09 17:11:00 The Arab CommissionBy THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, The New York Times Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, made a remarkable statement last week. He praised Israel for conducting an inquiry into last year’s war with Hezbollah — an inquiry that accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of “serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence.” Mr. Nasrallah was quoted by the BBC as saying Israelis “study their defeat in order to learn from it,” in contrast with the Arab regimes that “do not probe, do not ask, do not form inquiry commissions ... as if nothing has happened.” One has to be impressed by his honesty, but he did not take it all the way, since the Arab leader who most needs to be probed is Mr. Nasrallah himself. He started the war with Israel, which was a disaster for both sides. If there were an honest Arab League Inquiry Commission into the war, here is what it would say about him: On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah fighters directed by Mr. Nasrallah
Once more with a vengance 2007-05-21 13:13:00 While a Syrian trained, funded and supported group called “Fatah Al Islam” is spreading chaos in Tripoli (in northern Lebanon) Lebanese politicians are still bickering and infighting… Yesterday morning the Lebanese police, following an investigation of a bank robbery, clashed with a very well armed group of pseudo Muslim fanatics. Shortly after, the army intervened after ten of its soldiers were kidnapped and then killed in cold blood. A full fledged battle followed and “Fatah Al Islam” were pushed back in the Palestinian refugee camp they were initially based in. Since day break today, the army has been pounding the Syrian backed group inside the Palestinian camp of “al bedaoui” close to Tripoli. If it was up to me I would have given the order to enter the camp and eradicate there murderers once and for all… Unfortunately, Hezbollah and its allies have a different agenda. Yesterday the divine party issued a statement saying that the situation should be resol
Three… 2007-05-24 10:19:00 Three
explosions in four days… people are going crazy with fear. Rumors are spreading amok all over town, "the found a bomb in Hamra, no in a school close to Raouche. They caught two suicide bombers. Tonight's bomb will target mar elias. Fateh al Islam said that they will hit schools and universities" Among all of that, panic is setting in, streets are empty and only security forces are out at night.Meanwhile, the "Nahr al bared" camp's Palestinian refugees are fleeing, fearing renewed clashes. Support for the army has surged after this lull. All Palestinian faction (especially the PLO) have expressed their supports and even offered to help the army end "fateh al islam" the final battle will be soon, tomorrow or after tomorrow I guess ( it seems that I am too falling into the rumors mill, and starting my own…)One thing is for sure, for a second year in a row, Lebanon's summer touristic seasons is down the drain. The economic situation will heavily suffer from th
Sliding... 2007-05-22 10:02:00 The situation is sliding into an attrition war. The broad support by all Lebanese and Palestinian faction, other than "Fateh al Islam", to the army and its actions against those cold blood terrorist, has been eroding rapidly…The main Palestinian representative in Lebanon has started speaking about the cost of the army attack on the naher el Bered camp and the need to find a political resolution to the crisis. Several protests march where held in the other palesitnain camps spread all over lebanon.I think that the window of opportunity, to decisively resolve the situation, is rapidly closing, a day or two at most. A political "resolution" will only postpone the problem and even compound it. If "fateh al islam" terrorists are not dealt with decisively, then a couple of month down the road we will face an even bigger explosion.Meanwhile, the opposition is totally politicizing the situation making the army's job even more difficult, while explosions are not stopping. for t Read more:Sliding
"I hope they will attack us soon. Then we'll strike back and finish them off" 2007-05-26 06:37:00 Here is some excerpts for a Der Spiegel article about the situation in naher el Bared camp. I choose the parts where the journalist interviews a Lebanese soldier.As a side note, I've always respected the army and its soldiers but after these past days, damn I have become proud and fiercely supportive of our boys!!!Head here to read the full articleThanks for Beirut Spring for pointing it out.Excerpts: "During the next 48 hours, we will eradicate them," says the elite Lebanese soldier, lying behind a freshly raised mound of red earth. "They," of course, are the militants of the radical Palestinian group Fatah Islam. And the effort to eradicate them has virtually destroyed the Palestinian refugee camp Nahr al-Bared where they are holed up.The ground is strewn with the empty casings of high-caliber bullets; the soot-blackened ruins of the camp north of the Lebanese seaport of Tripoli stand about 200 meters (650 feet) away. Fatah Islam snipers on the roofs take aim at the Lebanese rangers Read more:attack
, strike
Mabrouk* 2007-05-31 14:56:00 *Congratulation...May this day brings peace, prosperity and above all Justice to our country...Peace
Just listen... 2007-06-15 07:12:00 what can i say...I am so very proud [sic] to share my Lebanese citizenship with these...these... words fail to describe them...But i have one question for the so called Lebanese in the opposition: is this how you all feel? Do you want all of us to die? or maybe kill us? like hamas is killing Fateh in Gaza?I am starting to lose faith in the idea that we can all live together, in the same country...PS: NBN is a Lebanese TV network that belongs to Nabih Berri one of the tenors of the opposition alongside Hizbollah and Aoun.You can also watch CNN coverage of the incident here.
Standing Up to Killers 2007-06-14 10:10:00 I feel too empty, too apathic to even try to express my feelings, so for the mean time this excellent article should do...Standing
Up to Killers
By Hussain Abdul-HussainWashington PostA bomb in Beirut yesterday killed Walid Eido, a member of the Lebanese parliament, and his son, Khaled, one of the smartest, sweetest and most delightful friends I have ever had.I should wait for the results of an investigation into the explosion to learn who killed Khaled and his dad. But I will not wait. I am tired of the murders in Lebanon. I accuse the Syrian regime, headed by President Bashar al-Assad, of killing Khaled. As a friend of the family, I want to press charges against Assad and his Syrian and Lebanese associates. Enough is enough with the Syrian regime and its Lebanese puppets.Walid Eido was a member of the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority. Before his untimely death, the majority bloc comprised 69 of the legislature's 128 members. Now, the majority's margin has been narrowed to five, an
Hezbollah's true face! 2007-06-16 15:39:00 Another example of Hezbollah
’s militia like behaviors… Yesterday, Hezbollah’s militia intercepted a Police patrol, passing through Beirut’s Southern suburb and the three police officers were disarmed, taken into custody and interrogated by Nassrallah’s men...Several hours later they were release... Lebanon state is falling... PS: This information was issued by the Police official press apparatus and was published by most newspapers and news sources in Lebanon, including Tayyar.org website that belongs to Aoun and his party, Hezbollah’s own allies. Al Manar however totally ignored the events, the spin masters finally ran out of tricks to fool the Lebanese people.
The Lebanese flag... 2007-06-19 10:19:00 A Lebanese
soldier raising our country's flag on "Fateh al Islam" last bastion in the camp!PS: Memo to Hezbollah, next time you drag us into another war at least have the decency to hold the Lebanese flag into battle, not your yellow flag...
Free fall 2007-06-28 07:31:00 A Lebanese journalist described our country’s situation as a “chicken game” the two factions composing the current Lebanese political spectrum, 14 March and Hezbollah’s allies are rushing unblinking into each other at full speed. And the first to blink will lose… I think neither would. The head on crash would be ugly; its first signs are starting to show. Assassinations have resumed, the United Nations peace keeping forces (UNIFIL) in the south have been targeted, and six Spanish soldiers were killed, no solution is even conceivable. Most 14 march politicians have fled the country, with their families! The summer promises to be very, very hot. I m so disgusted by the whole situation and who the politicians are still playing their silly blame game…
A dream... 2007-07-06 09:06:00 I have a recurrent dream, in which I am holding my ten years old daughter’s hand, walking… I would point to buildings, like my father did in 1990 and I tell her “this was the Place de l’etoile, there were many restaurants here. I used to love to sit in one of the many café around the square and watch people from all over the world pass by” Walking future I would say “ here we went out on our first date , your mother and me” and then I smiled as I remembered another joyful memory, of my foolish, care free years, when we used to go out in Down Town and get so drunk. She giggled softly “here? But it is only rubble” Smiling sadly I nodded, “Yes, only rubble. But mixed with so much passion, with so much joy, and with so much blood”, I whispered. My legs went on step by bloody step, almost against my will, into that great square. And tears started to flow from my eyes... In the middle stood a white pedestal, empty like the soul of my country, and there my he
Insouciance! 2007-07-04 09:44:00 In the current lull between a passing storm and the next, the Lebanese are trying, shyly, to return to their old routine. Gemayzeh and Monot (the most in vogue of Beirut’s night life areas), and the big malls are starting to fill again. Yet something is missing… Maybe it is the absence of the Lebanese famous war-times trademark, our “insouciance”, which stems from our ingrained fatalism. And I think that it is absent because we are still in limbo, between the abyss and a fragile status quo. We don’t know what to do: do we switch to “war mode” or we stay in our “peace mode”.Although, I no longer have any hope that we will doge the bullet this time, there is always hope. And it is this hope that is making us hold our breath and dream. That maybe against all odds, we will prevail and we will have finally live in a stable, prosperous and peaceful country for the first time since the early 70’s of last century…
One year ago... 2007-07-11 14:42:00 One year ago, Nassrallah decided to cross the international border between Lebanon and Israel and kidnap two soldiers. Unfortunately, he did not know the consequences of his actions, or so he claimed... On that day Hezbollah’s supporters were offering Lebanese sweets to passersby, in celebration of the kidnapping. The celebrations did not last long. For at eight PM that day, Israel started a war that lasted for 34 days, bombing and destroying large areas under hezbollah’s control. After this war a vicious controversy erupted, Hezbollah claimed victory, claiming that Israel failed to accomplish any of its proclaimed results: destroying Hezbollah and returning he soldiers. On the other hand, Israel claimed that Hezbollah’s agenda and capabilities were severely harming because the United Nations peacekeeping forces in the south were bolstered by a factor of ten and Hezbollah main forces retreated behind the UN area of control (south of the litany river). And because of the destru
No big surprises! 2007-07-16 08:51:00 No big surprises, the St Clous round of talks have neither failed nor succeed, just like the current situation in the country, which in neither outright war nor peace. The current status-quo (if it can be called that) is maintained and the standoff will continue. At least one can say that the explosion was averted, for a while. On the other hand, the situation in the south is rapidly deteriorating, with another attack on the UNIFIL, which fortunately was casualty free. So we are back to waiting, for the next round, the next explosion or even the next war. Meanwhile, NBN have reinstated their presenter who was sacked, in response for making fun -on air!- of the latest 14 March MP that was killed a few weeks ago…) Another proof that the rift between the two Lebanese factions (14 and 8 March0 is almost unbridgeable.
OTV 2007-07-23 05:35:00 As always, Aoun brings about an aura of change, of bringing new blood into the Lebanese putrid political life. Alas, it is only a false illusion and that is a shame, and a terrible waist. Let me elaborate, when he first came back for exile many saw him as a white knight coming to the rescue of our country. We hoped that he will bring positive change and cleanse the ugly political arena. However, he dived right in that smelly pool of mud, and became just another political player. Many will argue otherwise, but the reality is Aoun is no better than any other politicians. And I believe that he is worse, because he had a change to ignite a new beginning and he failed...miserably... For example in the first parliamentary election, he allied himself with Syria’s goon and henchmen all over Lebanon (the Syrian National Party, Michel Murr, Hezbollah and even the Baath Party) His supporters argue that they were forced into such an alliance because the 14 of March coalition refused
Electoral analysis, Part 2007-07-26 08:48:00 Sunday the 5th of august a partial parliamentary election will be held in Beirut and in the Metn district of Mount Lebanon. In a series of upcoming article I will try to offer an in depth analysis of these election and my preliminary predictions. In the first article I will offer a brief overview of the situation and possible consequence of the electoral battle of the Metn. In the second part I will draw out an in-depth analysis of electoral forces and their orientations in the same district, and then moving on to a similar exercise of the election in Beirut’s second district in the third article. The electoral race in the Metn will be a titanic struggle between former President Amin Gemayel, the father of the assassinated MP pierre Gemayel, who previously held the seat, and General Aoun, represented by Dr. Kamil Khoury. This partial election will be an important milestone in the current political crisis in Lebanon. In short, if Aoun’s candidate wins, the General will cement
Electoral Analysis Part II 2007-07-31 07:49:00 Now to the numbers, but before that a brief sum up of the situation: Tensions are sky high in the Metn area. I fear that the elections will be wrought with violence and increased divisions between the two main factions (especially on the Christian side) Meanwhile the army had to reinforce its deployment in the Metn and Beirut to enforce order, so between the North and South deployment and the border patrols with Syria the army is spread very, very thin. The numbers: I collected these numbers from several sources, and are mostly based on the 2005 election and my own analysis. One of my main sources is Abdo Saad, a political analyst specialized in electoral statistics, but who heavily leans toward Aoun and his allies, and writes in the Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is backed by Hezblollah,. (Check out his articles on the elections here and here). The main forces: Kateb (the Phanlages) and their allies (14 March, LF…); Aoun and his supporters ( Baath party and SSNP both syria’s Read more:Analysis
Electoral Analysis Part III 2007-08-03 07:29:00 As the fateful day draw near more and more indications about the results are emerging. Gebran Bassil, Aoun's son in law and one of the top FPM leaders said yesterday on LBC TV station, in a talk show (Kalam el Nas) that in fact the FPM did win 70% of the votes in 2005 (like they have been claiming for the past 2 years) they only won 63%, and a couple percentage drop would not diminish their victory. And one of the topics on the FPM bulletin board argues that even a 50%+1 results is a victory. This indicates that the FPM is no longer expecting a big difference between the two candidates. So it seems that my analysis was in the right direction. The difference will be around 5% at most, either ways. And a recent survey by The International Information Institute published in Assafir and in Annahar point for a similar conclusion. This survey also state that there is a 10% of undecided, and reported that by studying the breakdown of voting intentions by sect points out to 17.7% drop in Aou Read more:Analysis
A very intresting article!!! 2007-08-02 07:54:00 A very interesting article by Michael Young that analysis the current electoral battle in the Metn from a different and stricking perspective:Is Michel Aoun walking into a trap? By Michael Young All the signs are that the voting will go ahead in the Metn by-election this coming Sunday. However, partisans of both Michel Aoun and Amin Gemayel should be very careful. An Aoun victory would indeed be a setback for those who oppose Syrian efforts to return to Lebanon; but the election could potentially be a trap for Aoun, its practical outcome the general's political ruin and the destruction of Christian unity. Whatever one thinks of Aoun, he has been a victim of two cutting blows coming from Damascus, and there is some question as to how we should read them. The first was the publication on a Syrian regime Web site, Champress, of alleged statements Aoun made in Berlin in which the general expressed sympathy for Syria. It turned out that Aoun did not utter the words in question,
Results!!!!! 2007-08-05 12:49:00 In order to better follow the results of the election in the Metn either try 14 March site (Lebanese Forces) or the Aounist one. 20.52: Till now they are both listing Gemayel as a winner.21.11: Aoun announced his victory and called for his supporters to head to the central district where all the votes are being counted. HOWEVER both websites are indicating that Amine Gemayel won (with 2/3 of the votes counted thus far)21.35: Gemayel's announced his victory! So both candidates have won!!!! Typical Lebanese elections. Additionally, Tayyar.org have stooped publishing results...23.25: no official results yet, but it seems Aoun won by a very slim margin. A few minutes ago tayyar.org announced that Aoun candidate won by 4000 and received a phone call by the Minster of Interior who announced this victory. Yet they just removed this info... Aoun denied it and he just announced that his candidate won but the difference was small...In conclusion:It seems that Aoun won, no official words ye
Mid day briefing 2007-08-05 05:43:00 The good news: no major scuffles on the streets, just the usual tensions and provocations. Meanwhile, participation seems a bit less than 2005, but this drop would not translate into any gain for either candidate, as it will be all over the board. Therefore, I will stick with my previous predictions: a very close battle with a slight advantage to Aoun.
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