Owner: College Football by the Numbers URL:http://footballmath.blogspot.com Join Date: Sat, 02 Aug 2008 18:12:06 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: CFBN offers readers a statistical interpretation of college football-everything from rating teams (past and present) to the potential consequences US population dynamics. Site statistics:Click here
Parity in College Football - Part II 2008-08-02 11:40:00 A little less than a year ago I did a piece on parity in college football inspired by the pitiful performance on top 5 teams against unranked opponents. Looking at the amount of time teams have spent in the top ten, I found real parity in college football ended with the 50's and that, although more teams rotate up at the top now than in the 60's and 70's, those teams that do make it to the top ar Read more:College
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Big 10 2008 Preview 2008-08-02 10:18:00 The Big 10 lost another championship game last year. If it weren’t for the refereeing disaster that allowed Ohio State to beat Miami, the Big 10 would be 0-3 in BCS title games. More disturbing, Ohio State would be 0-3 in BCS title games with the rest of the conference yet to be seen. The Big 10, and Ohio State, needs the rest of the conference to step up, but the future is not bright. C Read more:Preview
Vote No on a Tournament in College Football 2008-07-29 14:38:00 Global warming and a tournament in college football--in both cases, a person can expect to get roasted if they oppose the popular consensus. Our understanding of global warming (both its effects and the potential solutions) is built largely on myths. This is, unfortunately, also the case with a tournament in college football. A tournament would not magically identify the best team in college fo Read more:College
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MWC 2008 Preview 2008-07-28 08:30:00 It could be a big season for the Mountain West. BYU has received most of the publicity so far, but a different storyline might emerge as being more significant by season’s end, especially if BYU falters in conference play. Here are my big questions for the MWC:1) Can BYU succeed in its “quest for perfection”? a. Who will win in Salt Lake during Thanksgiving weekend Read more:Preview
Home Field Advantage - Stage 2 2008-07-26 12:53:00 Your aren’t going to like this. I don’t like this and I wrote it. In my mind, it attacks the Atlas of the game I love so much. But I’m filled with a sense of academic integrity to report on my findings, even if I don’t like my findings. So bear with me and read with an open mind. Home field advantage is very real. We can all agree on that. The professional athletes in profession Read more:Advantage
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Pac 10 2007(8) (P)review 2008-07-25 09:39:00 Here' all you really need to know from the Pac 10 last season:That play still makes me sick to watch. I'm not a Cal fan in any way, but watching Riley make one of the stupidest decisions of his life in front of a national television audience made my stomach churn. But Cal didn't lose that game because the kid made a mistake or because Longshore couldn't stay healthy. They didn't lose that game Read more:review
Big XII North, 2007(8) (P)review 2008-07-22 11:16:00 Last year, some teams in the Big XII North
finally caught a few splinters from the ugly stick and started hitting back. They even sent a team to a BCS bowl for the first time since Kansas State in '03 and then Nebraska in '01 (if my memory serves me correctly). But in the end, the South continued its reign.So what should we expect from the land of prairie, corn, cows and, in small isolated gathe Read more:review
Big 12 South, 2007(8 P)review 2008-07-20 15:51:00 I think its important, before we get lost in the hype about certain teams this year, to look back at what these same teams did with their talent last year because, on average, more than 75% of the team is the same as last year. I'm using two measures that I developed to measure performance and reputation over the course of a season. Today, I'm focusing on the Big XII South
.My big questions for t Read more:review
Home Field Advantage-Initials 2008-07-19 08:22:00 For some time now I've been planning a major project to quantify home field advantage. It is turning to be a little more difficult than I had hoped.I know, on average, HFA is worth about 3.5 points, but history and tradition tell us that this value varies across teams and even seasonally ("The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field
" isn't frozen in September). Getting at these values, though, is methodo Read more:Advantage
The Respect-O-Matic 2008-07-17 09:46:00 The impetus for the Respect-O-Matic is similar to that of the Respect-O-Meter. Because the line in Vegas is designed to guess the attitudes of gamblers and then is adjusted to match their voting behavior, the Vegas line, like the stock market, is a mechanism for aggregating information on the public perception of the worth of a football team. The Respect-O-Matic tracks that perception for each t
Trend-O-Matic 1.1 2008-07-16 13:06:00 Before I went ahead and presented the rest of the data from the Trend-O-Matic and its companion, the Respect-O-Matic, I have made some minor modifications to make the model more robust. I now present the T-o-M 1.1. It is about as close to perfection as this blog will ever get.Part of the challenge with this type of metric is that it attempts to account for four variables with only a single equ
The Trend-O-Matic 2008-07-12 13:40:00 A few days ago I released the Respect-O-Meter, a measure of a team's public perception relative to its performance. I now present the Trend-O-Matic-the most complete measure of a team's performance I have ever come across.To read the graph, first find the line that represents your team of interest. Then follow that line from left to right through the course of the season (the numbers at bottom r
The Respect-O-Meter 2008-07-10 07:58:00 Do you feel like your team got the shaft in 2007? That the experts failed to notice your crowning achievement-five degrees of victory from the national championship (e.g. my team beat App State who beat Michigan who beat Florida who beat Kentucky who beat LSU)? I introduce for your viewing pleasure the crowning statistical achievement of 2008-the Respect-O-Meter
!The Respect-O-Meter is based on t
An Interesting Null 2008-07-08 16:50:00 My interest in this blog is, one, to rate and rank teams, but, ultimately, to be able accurately quantify college football teams so that I can more accurately forecast game outcomes. While I'm revving up for another season, I thought it might be interesting to take a closer look at the industry standard in college football forecasting-the Vegas line. And since I'm writing about it now, you can g
My College Football Kickoff 2008-07-01 11:42:00 A blog devoted to statistical rankings and ratings can be a little dull the first few weeks of the season and devoid of content before the season starts, but I've decided to throw in my two cents and subjective predictions along with everyone else. Here are some things that stick out to me:1) USC vs. Florida national championship game.The only thing that attracts my ire like LA sports teams is Ur Read more:College
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In the End - Final Rankings for 2007 2008-01-15 09:35:00 Complete Rankings
Click HereNow that the season is over, it's time to hand out the Matrix Awards for this seasons best performers.Most Efficient Pass Offense.FloridaIt was a good season for Florida's Tim Tebow. Not only did he win the Heisman and expand his cult following, but he also managed the nation's most efficient pass offense according to the Matrix. And the nation's least efficient pass Read more:Final
Bowl Picks 5 - BCS Bowls 2007-12-24 07:47:00 Complete Bowl PicksThe Matrix and the folks in Vegas don't seem agree about the BCS matchups. In most cases here, I take the side of the folks in Vegas.Rose Bowl. Illinois vs. USCIf Illinois were to win this game, they might start next season in the top 5 and Ron Zook would be elected governor of Illinois. The only offense of note in this game is Illinois' run game which will face up against the Read more:Bowls
Bowl Picks 4 2007-12-23 07:51:00 Sun Bowl. Oregon vs. USFOregon at one time claimed the best offense in the country, but USF finished only scoring 10 total fewer than Oregon this season. Oregon finally found in Justin Roper a QB that had some post-Dixon success, but against USF's pass D, the real weight on offense will be carried by RB Stewart. USF held WVU to 13 points and has the potential to do the same against Oregon as wel
Bowl Picks 3 2007-12-17 19:36:00 I apologize about the extra ads at the end of my posts. I'm not exactly sure what I did to get them there or how to get rid of them. Now, back to bowl talk:Meineke Car Care Bowl. Wake Forest vs. UConn Coaches Edsall and Grobe both deserve credit for leading their very small programs to relatively big-time success, but UConn’s co-championship this season is even more impressive considering t
Bowl Picks 2 2007-12-16 07:45:00 Hawaii Bowl. Boise State vs. East CarolinaThe talk of the town is that Boise State will have a letdown in this game and started slowly after the BCS miracle last season. Obviously, these people have never been to Boise or played in the WAC. East Carolina's trips to Virginia Tech and West Virginia received much more national attention than any game Boise State has played in this season (including
Bowl Picks 1 2007-12-09 16:39:00 For complete bowl picks, find "Bowl Picks" under "Predictions" in the right hand menu.Poinsettia Bowl. Utah vs. NavyUtah's tough pass defense kept Max Hall in check and almost helped Utah pull off the upset against BYU in Provo, but that tough pass defense won't be much help against Navy. From the option. Navy leads the nation in rushing yards per game and is 120th (dead last) in D1A in passing y
Week 15 Rankings 2007-12-05 11:06:00 Complete Week 14 Ratings Table HereAccording to the Matrix, the national championship game already took place, in San Antonio, on Saturday, and Oklahoma won.I mentioned yesterday how Stoops was trying to manipulate the national championship game with his vote. Well, this is how that kind of manipulation occurs statistically. It is a bootstrap technique. Missouri's rating is dependent on OU's ra Read more:Rankings
Historic Rankings: 2003 - 2006 2007-12-04 09:50:00 2006 Ratings2005 Ratings2004 Ratings2003 RatingsWith the season beginning to wrap up, I decided it was time to start adding historic polls to the site. These polls use the same methodology that I have developed this season, but, due to a lack of data, I cannot (yet) do the potential, offensive and defensive ratings that I post for the current season. I have added a strength of schedule rating a Read more:Rankings
I Think I’m Going to be Sick 2007-12-02 11:47:00 I’m not a WVU fan. In fact, as a BYU alum, I hate the fact that the Big East gets an automatic BCS bowl bid while the MWC champion gets PAC-10 4/5. The largest stadium in the Big East holds 65,050 – which they borrow from the Steelers - and the mighty Panthers pack 43,000 in there for home games – not exactly big time football – but that’s not the point.I’m not a WVU fan, but Saturda Read more:Going
Week 14 Picks 2007-11-30 15:02:00 Complete Picks HereThe schedule is short this week, and with blockbusters like Miami (OH) hosting Central Michigan and Tulsa going to Central Florida, it will be easier to focus on the more important games. Several conference championships and the entire slate of BCS bowl match ups will be decided this weekend. And, of course, the Cadets and Midshipmen have their annual showdown - that everyone
The Flex Tournament for College Football 2008-08-12 15:27:00 I spelled out my position on a tournament in college football a couple of weeks ago, but college football fans seem to be rather stubborn and bullheaded, bound to their myopic misunderstandings and deaf to my omniscient wisdom. Consequently, even though the popularity of a tournament isn't new--big names and small have been calling for an infernal tournament in college football for over a quarter Read more:College
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The People's Poll: Everyone Else's Top 25 2008-08-06 09:06:00 Now that all the "pundits" of the blogosphere are taking their potshots at the Coach's top 25--some well-informed and others full of cliche's and misinformation--I now present the season's first People's Poll so we can examine our own choices.The People's Poll is a representation of voting data from prediction markets (see here). I'm a big believer in the power of prediction markets as a tool for
WAC 2008 Preview 2008-08-05 23:58:00 Last season was not a good one for the WAC. Sure, they sent a team to a BCS bowl, made tons of money, and got plenty of time on center stage. But the WAC in 2007 was not a strong conference. Four of the 9 teams spent time with negative trend-o-matic ratings and Utah St. consistently skimmed right above the surface. Even Hawaii spent most of the season below 30—the realm of the unranked and u Read more:Preview
Good Sign/Bad Sign Week 2 2008-09-08 10:46:00 Non-BCS: Notre DameGood Sign: They won. In fact, they are now on pace to win 4 times as many games as they did in 2007. Clausen was solid, completing 57% of his passes, averaging just under 7 yards per pass, and got better as the game progressed-managing an almost heroic 4th quarter. The O-line was able to get a push and showed a recognition that they have blocking assignments, which allowed the D
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