Owner: itrade4real.com URL:http://www.itrade4real.com Join Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 08:22:11 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: This site will show you what REAL traders do in REAL time. There are too many sites/blogs touting their profits AFTER the action. These sites are of little use to readers. We will, occasionally, explain the reasons, set-ups, and targets.
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Quick post 2008-07-30 07:05:00 I'll make this a quick update, as not much has changed since yesterday. I did start to buy into the SLV and DGP etfs (Silver and Gold), but with very small size. I acted as a result of relative strength in commodities, even though the $USD was up sharply. For example, the DBA etf (agriculture)closed up on the day and near the highs, after opening a percent or two lower. I'll continue to "leg
Read more:Quick
Too soon 2008-07-29 07:35:00 It's premature to start buying stocks for a bounce, in my opinion. It appears I also covered my shorts too soon, although I've had a decent run lately. The "press" keeps reminding us that the $USD is oversold and about to strengthen, but sentiment cannot be quantified usefully, so I choose to ignore it. As traders, it's always best to bet with the current trend. Investors might be more inclined
The plan 2008-07-24 07:24:00 My focus lately has been shorter term. This is due to the volatility and the "counter trend" opportunities. I've discussed many times how I prefer to be short "paper" and long hard assets in this environment. However, I also take signals as they present, and that called for getting long stocks the last couple weeks. It was uncomfortable but necessary. I'm pleased to say that the tide is turning
Bent, but not broken 2008-07-23 07:57:00 It feels like my last 40 trades have been losers. Of course I'm kidding, but sequences like this will definitely test your mettle. The thing that's kept me level headed, and my focus in the game, is simply position sizing. Rather than being ready to "pack it up", I'm eager to get a hold on the next opportunity. Keep in mind that sharp moves will take time to settle, and more time to turn back in
Not much traction, yet. 2008-07-22 08:05:00 Since my positions have not followed through to large gains lately, I've been keeping the sizes small. Regardless of the size, however, I still use the same stop price I would if I had more substantial positions. The swings in P+L should remain subdued even though the markets are twisting and bending. Volatility has crept back into most asset classes, and traders need to address this fact in
Now what? 2008-07-18 06:46:00 Almost everybody expected a rally after the beating stocks have taken for the last 6 weeks or so, and it's finally materialized. The question is, "where do we go from here?" It has been my experience that the stronger the move (in this case lower), the more likely it is to continue in the same direction, or at least damper the reactive bounce. So far this theory seems to be holding, as stocks
Getting tested 2008-07-10 07:22:00 The last couple months have been frustrating. It's not that I've lost much money (in fact I'm about exactly where I was), but I was unable to capitalize on a very accurate 6-10 week short side trade in stocks. Take a look at the attached chart exactly when the index touched the 200 day MA. When the positions failed to get much traction, my system called for going the other way (long). Here we
Read more:tested
ISM catalyst? 2008-07-01 06:50:00 Today's ISM # at 10 am might provide an opportunity. Should I get a signal, I'm prepared to add to my small position (MTU long), as well as enter ZB futures short (bonds) at some point today. The worst case scenario is that the ISM trips me up by not allowing any signals to trigger for the remainder of the week. Regular readers know I am not fond of vacation shortened weeks as the action gets
Back in the saddle 2008-06-27 07:56:00 Although I take time off from the markets, I always keep an eye out for setups. If there isn't a new post for a day or two, please keep an eye on the ticker where I report my trades. I'll always make comments on what I do, even if I don't write a post explaining why. Sometimes there just isn't that much to share!
One great thing about this business is that it allows for spontaneity. You can
Quick post 2008-06-13 10:18:00 I might get stopped out of the $CAD trade, but other than that, there's not anything new to share in my trading. I don't anticipate doing much today, as I'm close to some entry signals but prefer to wait until they trigger. I found a few interesting articles, so I decided to make a short post with the links. There's Brett Steenbarger on the changing intermarket themes. Pay special attention to
Read more:Quick
1% total portfolio risk 2008-06-12 07:57:00 The strength of the $USD has returned, causing my $CAD trade to go against me. I'll simply keep my stops at a level where I have a total risk on the portfolio of 1%. One difficult aspect of trading is once the trader has larger position sizes (from adding units), he loses capital much quicker during adverse price moves. This causes me to get to my stop levels quicker. I honestly do not care if
$CAD trade getting traction 2008-06-11 07:19:00 Regardless of the instruments I trade, readers can benefit from watching how I add to a winners, or cut losers. You don't have to know anything about the Canadian dollar to learn effective trading decisions. My most recent trade (long $CAD futures) is getting some traction, and I'm now looking to step up the size. I don't add just because I'm
Easiest and most effective way to keep a journal 2008-06-10 06:42:00 Every aspiring trader has heard the advice, "keep a journal". I agree, and have found what I feel is the easiest and most productive way to capture all my thoughts and observations. I've been using these devices for many years, and can't do without. I found that it was impossible to know ahead of time when I'd have a revelation, and carrying paper/pen everywhere was ineffective
. Digital voice
Easing into the new week 2008-06-09 07:30:00 It appears that we might see yet another reversal after Friday's big selloff. With regard to stocks, I remain flat, and any trades will be shorter term in duration (day trades or 2 days most). Non-confirmation remains a "problem", and my adjusted hold times have served me well the past 2 weeks. Consistent with a reversal type market, I'll look to buy dips and sell rallies (short), but keep
Opinions vs. Trading decisions 2008-06-06 06:28:00 Readers know I've been taking stabs on the short side of stocks for the last few days. I truly don't care which side follows through, long or short, as long as I can get on board. There is a huge difference between being wrong and staying wrong. I have executed properly according to my plan, and my opinions have not cost me much trading capital. I reigned in my expectations and stop levels as
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, Trading
Non confirmation 2008-06-05 06:15:00 Yesterday saw the NDX up over 1%, the Russell 2000 up .5%, and the S&P500 unchanged. This type discrepancy is indicative of low opportunity trading, at least to me. Readers should take note that the one trade I did make was kept to a "small" position of only 1 unit. I need traction before I add to my initial trade, and that proved nonexistent. By being patient for my signals to enter and
Adjustment 2008-06-04 07:16:00 The recent lack of follow through in either direction indicates a sort of stalemate. Although I was hoping to have a strong short side trade in stocks, I must be flexible and adjust now that the signal is weakening. To force a situation, with capital at risk, is a recipe for disaster. I've had to shorten holding times, reduce profit targets (discussed yesterday), and tighten stops.
Setups still intact 2008-06-03 07:12:00 The recent setups I've been tracking are still intact
, but I'd like to see more confirmation with industry groups, the $USD, bonds, and the indexes in general. Typically, the moves are stronger and more predictable when the above confirm each other. That's not to say I won't get a signal, but I am less enthusiastic. Action like we've had recently can often suggest more range bound markets for
Time to act 2008-06-02 06:46:00 It took almost the whole weekend to get new computers configured they way I like them when I trade. I believe I'm ready just in time for the fireworks. Readers will know that on Friday I started to accumulate SRS (1 unit), and I'm looking for a short side play in stocks. Recall that I don't "play" news items or economic releases in particular, rather I am alert to them as potential
Preparation 2008-05-29 09:07:00 As I don't anticipate being too active today in the trading arena, it's a good time to prepare for my next setups. For some time now, bonds and stocks have traded inversely, and the $USD has traded inversely to commodity prices. These relationships were useful when creating and executing a plan. However, traditional price action relationships between different asset classes do not always
How much? 2008-05-28 08:07:00 There is no need for an accompanying chart today. The same setups of the last few days are still intact, and as always, I'll post on the ticker immediately after I place a trade. I'm pleased with the recent results and after reviewing my trades, I can say I'm executing well. Just as I don't dwell on a string of losing trades if I traded correctly, I also move on after a series of victories.
Consumer Confidence 2008-05-27 15:29:00 I mentioned this catalyst last week, and was able to get the signal to be long stocks today. This was a day trade setup, only, and I am now flat again. I commented on the ticker how it's hard for a trader to take a signal that is contrary to what he "feels". Readers know I've been trading the short side of stocks, preparing for a more substantial decline. However, a long signal was triggered and
Read more:Confidence
, Consumer
Timeframes 2008-05-23 09:19:00 I frequently discuss the importance of specifically knowing the timeframe in which we trade. Some traders are able to be long for 2 days, while still having a "core" position short for months. The reason I mention this is I feel that barring a disastrous headline, the financial stocks might stabilize for a few days. They've gotten hammered again, but a breather could be on the horizon. Make no
Ring the register 2008-05-22 04:25:00 If yesterday's move occurred next Tuesday, after the holiday, it probably would be enough to bust the market for months. It did not, however, so we'll have to let stocks meander while the big guys head for vacation. The interesting thing about sharp moves is that while exciting, they rarely last. With that in mind, my money's in the bank. I realize I'll have to continue to pick my spots carefully
Reacting to P+L 2008-05-21 07:29:00 Reacting to P+L solely, or mostly, is a recipe for disaster. Yesterday I saw my profits swell, and when I woke up this morning (5am eastern time), the futures were up. If they stayed that way until the open, I'd have surrendered some of my gains. Nobody likes to give back profits, but recall that one of my major tenets is to follow whatever got me into a trade, all the way through. If I used a
Stocks vs. Bonds 2008-08-12 07:26:00 Typically there is an inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, as a result of being competing asset classes. When they trade in then same direction, it's a cue that something larger is occurring under the surface. The good news is that things usually return to "normal" before too long. Until this relationship is turned right side up, I'll continue to look for one or the other to
Read more:Bonds
, Stocks
Week of August 11, 2008 2008-08-11 08:01:00 Account equity has been bouncing around, from a new high on Thursday, to a decent size pullback on Friday. The give and take in my trading continues, but I've managed some gains through proper position sizing and relative weakness plays (financial stocks). All in all, I've executed my plan well, except for exiting the IYF etf on Friday at a small profit. I still hold SKF, but in review of
Read more:August
Quickie 2008-08-08 08:10:00 It's Friday, and things are pretty well set for me. The only "issue" is the $USD screaming higher, right through well established resistance levels. I took my shot going long DGP (Gold) and I might get stopped out today. It's much easier to digest when trading accounts hit all time highs in equity yesterday, due to a very nice bet in the SKF long, and the IYF short. To sum up, the tug of war
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Buckle up! 2008-08-07 07:14:00 I prefer to have confirmation in various groups, indexes, and world markets before initiating new positions, but that's not always possible. I'm currently adding to my equities (short financials and looking to add real estate), as well as accumulating gold and other commodities long. It's the same plan as the last several days, and I'll attempt to use adverse price moves (intraday) to
Read more:Buckle
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