Owner: The Dream Lives URL:johnsdreamon.blogspot.com Join Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2007 12:39:48 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: A simple blog about a young guy trying to succeed at professional gambling. Site statistics:Click here
Gut Feeling... 2007-07-18 12:47:00 Two bets today and 6% made. It was one of those days where I just had a gut feeling it was going to be a good one. I sat down around 12pm and went through the cards, analysed the races worth looking at and checked the prices on Betfair. I'd chosen 5 possible lays for the afternoon and although I only need two of them, all five lost eventually. My strongest lay was Bridgewater Boys as I'm still yet to be convinced he stays a well run 12F and after just 2 days rest and 3/1 favourite he looked a great lay. But as I'd already finished by then I had to be content with knowing that my reading of the race and analysis was spot on.I started off with the odds on shot in the two year old race at Catterick and it got turned over well and truly by a very promising type. My next lay I posted on Betfair, Montpellier. I thought he was just too short for a horse that needs luck IR and in my opinion badly weighted off an official rating of 89. He came from well back to finish well but left it too la Read more:Feeling
Slighty Disappointed. 2007-07-22 11:34:00 It's been a mixed day really and a slight loss of 0.5%. I started the day by laying Sergio at 1.5 with a liability of 1% (winning 2%). I think Sergio is a great player but pressure is a funny thing and with the amount of class in the field I felt at 1.5 he was worth a small lay. I left that going for a while and I concentrated on racing.River Thames got me off to a lovely start and I was 3% up and feeling confident about my next lay of Celtic Change. Whilst I'm his least favourite fan, it appears he rode an excellent race on Celtic Change to get him up to win. I lost 4.5% on that race leaving me 1.5% down for the racing. I'd been monitoring the golf and had planned if Sergio hit 3.0 (2/1) I would trade out and leave myself with a green screen. I backed him for 1% and I have a 1% profit regardless if he goes onto win or lose. A nice position to be in.It's been my first loss on the racing for quite a few days and I can't help but feel disappointed but I know I can't win everyday an
Happy Days. 2007-07-21 12:29:00 It was a good day today winning 5% with two bets at Ripon. I had to sit and be patient until 4.35 though as the earlier races made absolutely zero appeal and I just couldn't find any edge. Apache Nation was my first lay and at 3.55 is was in my opinion, far too short for a competitive handicap. It was off a very high mark and he's been kept busy of late and he was extremely poor value. My next lay was Just Lille and she's been in fine form winning four on the bounce but I thought this race on soft ground was a step too far. I luckily layed her at an avg of 3.95 before a total monster of a drift to over 8.4 on BF. I decided to reduce my liability before the off as she was just getting too big to ignore. It only cost me 1% profit and although it didn't matter in the end, I'm glad I did.I posted on the BF forum that I thought Blackmail was a good lay but I wouldn't be laying it as I had finished for the day. This seemed to not sit well with one person as he couldn't understand why Read more:Happy
, Happy Days
It Works... 2007-07-21 04:57:00 I've had time to look at my figures for my first month at set percentages and I'm very pleased with the results. My bank increased 120% with just three losing days. If I had continued to follow all of my lays and not stop, I would have increased my bank by 95%. So a 25% higher figure by stopping at set percentages, that is a large difference whatever way you look at it. I'll continue to monitor the difference but right now I'm extremely comfortable with how things are progressing.Friday was a good day eventually with 7% made. My first lay was the two year old system bet at Nottingham at very prohibitive odds of 1.68. The horse won but I'd gladly lay that type of horse again. Exit Strategy and Viable gained me 6% and my final lay was Hypoteneuse at Pontefract in the evening. I'm always worried by Sir Micheal Stoute drifters as it's generally not a huge negative. When his horses drift they certainly don't stop winning. It also went very low IR and touched 1.29 but ended up foldin Read more:Works
Back To Business... 2007-07-24 14:53:00 It was back to business today gaining 6%. It was a very interesting afternoon as I originally had the two year old favourite at Yarmouth as a lay as part of the two year old system I use. However, I kept looking at the race and my racecourse stats and I just couldn't see past it, which put me in two minds and whenever that happens, the best course of action is to leave well alone. I'm glad I did as it ended up winning comfortably.That was going to be my only lay of the afternoon but Pillar Of Hercules was a stat bet after reviewing it several times. This caused all sorts of problems for some members on the BF forum. It was suggested I was copying Sodium as he also posted Pillar of Hercules. I respect Sodium a great amount, but I follow my own lays and that's the way I like it. Some moron calling himself the Bulldog, took it upon himself to launch into me today... Strange behaviour. It appears I'm not allowed to change my mind lol. I can't even begin to describe how laughable that Read more:Business
One Of Those Days... 2007-07-23 10:26:00 It's been one of those days I'd rather forget in a hurry. It's been my biggest losing day since June 29th and I've seen a 17% loss today. Over the last two days 6 out of my 7 lays have won and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to realise that those numbers are beyond shit lol. My only saving grace is they have all been fairly short priced horses and I've done well to be down what I am.I'm 4 days into my second month of stopping at set percentages and I'm currently down 6% overall for the second period which is a fair way off target but a good run can easily see me make a very nice percentage still. I've looked back at all of my lays and I wouldn't of done anything different so it's hard to say what has changed except a downturn in fortunes.It's been a funny day on the BF forum too, I posted my selections as usual and the worms well and truly came out of the woodwork. 'Where do I sign up?', ' Dubai Guesser' etc etc. Lol. It amazes me how sad some people really are,
Boom. 2007-07-27 12:26:00 Today was probably one of my finer days with my lays and the two that resulted in me gaining 6% were both heavily odds on. First up was Murbek who has been beaten at odds on the last two outings and has looked a little ungeniune and basically slow. He was hammered into 1.81 which to me was absolute madness and took it quicker than you can say Bob's yours mother's brother. For the third time he finished second at odds on, a true layers friend. My most satisfying lay though was Red Alert Day at 1.46. Whilst what he had shown was above anything else on offer, the drop back in trip was a question mark. Also my stats showed that for it to win, a very rare sequence would have to happen, a lot like yesterday's Hunt The Bottle.I did plan on laying Reverence but I missed the price and decided to leave it alone as he was probably at his correct price. I was happy though with my analysis of the race. His speed rating was in the bottom third over 6F and the with the ground not soft enough he lo
Are You Sure?? 2007-07-27 03:50:00 I thought I'd write a little post about the confidence behind a lay/back. I've seen several posts on the BF forum about people laying a horse due to not liking the favourite or because the favourite should win but it's no value so they are laying the 2nd favourite. I used to lay a horse for the sake of having a lay in the race and something to do but that is just weak discipline. Surely if the favourite is no value to lay then it's a no bet race? I ask myself one question to determine if I'm really sure about a lay or not. If my bank was double what it is now, would I be willing to risk double the amount? If the answer is no then obviously I'm not that confident about the lay and I'm better waiting for other opportunities. I've fallen victim to it myself and I've seen it many times, people lay/back a horse because they're risking a little amount and they think it won't matter. It can soon easily add up I assure you. I've had two lays in the last few days where I originally
Ever So Sweet. 2007-07-26 09:06:00 I've had an enjoyable day with the racing today and made even more sweet by winning a solid 6%. My first lay was the odds on shot at Sandown, Hunt The Bottle. I combined the two year old system and my own personal stats. Whilst stats/trends are there to be broken, the evidence was stacked very much against the favourite and at 1.7 I felt this was a fantastic lay. It was a blindingly good value lay in my view even if it had won. My next lay was Silca Elegance in the 2.45 as she was just too short on what she had achieved and her speed figure wasn't in the first 3. She always travels very well so I decided to lay 1.5% pre race incase she was taken off her feet at her first try at 5F and then I planned to do the other 1.5% IR. It worked out perfectly, it even touched 1.05 IR before losing.So two bets and all done within 40 minutes of racing starting. I'm now 12.3% up for this second period and things are feeling good again after a wobbler on Monday.Well not too much else to report, alt Read more:Sweet
Rewarding... 2007-07-25 14:04:00 Today was a good day with a strong 6.3% made on the racing. Things didn't start as I'd hoped with Rio Taffeta winning and setting me back 4.5%. I've always felt confidence is a very important factor to laying horses and I have to admit to feeling slightly worried about having a bad day with my first lay winning but I decided to just trust what I'm doing and go ahead with my other lays.Copywriter was a good 2 year old system bet as I felt he was personally too short for what he achieved on his debut running and this event held some unexposed horses open to plenty of improvement. Interestingly, there was a system bet before with 'Without A Prayer'. I decided to leave this one alone, for similar reasons to the one yesterday. The opposition was weak with only 2 at most who could of beaten the favourite and I wasn't 100% sure about it so I took the correct decision and left it alone. I'm glad I did as it won very easily. The two year old system has taken a few hits recently but I'm
Marching... 2007-07-29 09:57:00 The band marches on with a pleasing 6% made from two bets. My first thoughts on the racing were that it was a tough day and patience would definitely be needed. Ascot was a write off with the prices just being too big and nothing particuarly taking my eye. There was a nice lay in the first at Carlisle, Denbera Dancer, appeared just too short. I like Mark Johnston but at the moment he's struggling for form and his strike rate is reflecting this at a very lowly 6% for July. I couldn't see this drop in trip helping either and he eventually finished out of the frame. I had a little wait until my next lay but there was some good racing to keep me occupied and some chat discussion on the BF forum. Local Poet was an absolute steal at 3.1, I was genuinely surprised at how short it was and expressed those thoughts on my thread. Apparently Dave Nevison liked it, I respect him a huge amount but really can't understand his thinking on this one and Local Poet trailed home well beaten. So that wa
Yee Hah! 2007-07-28 09:57:00 Another pleasing day today gaining 5.47%. I decided to take the very short priced odds on 2 year old at Newmarket as it just seemed mentally short even though he ran in a cracker of a maiden over course and distance. He went on to win but the damage was extremely small and I've no complaints about it. The next few horses stood out like a light bulb coming on in a dark room. Moonlight Man was as short as 3.15 (2.15/1) and whilst he had performed with credit on soft ground previously, he was a far, far better horse on better ground. I was pleasantly surprised by his price. Hassad was my next lay as the beast needs plenty of luck IR and he's just had too many chances in my view and whilst he obviously has some talent, his price was too short given the way he runs his races. My final bet was One Hour as I felt his form was a little short of the best on offer and he was still to prove a stiff 10F suited. He ran very well as he set his own pace but he was worn down late on, probably the s
Form Is Temporary, Class Is Forever. 2007-08-01 12:58:00 It's been a good day today so far with 4% made and a potential bet later on this evening but I'll wait and see. As seems the norm the last few days, I started off with a winner and I think I read a little too much into my stats and got a little carried away but the damage was minimal and sometimes its easy to overlook things. My next lay was Excellent Art in the big race of the day at Goodwood and he just lost by a long neck/half a length. I was pleased to see Ramonti win for Godolphin for several reasons, firstly being the fact it denied Excellent Art and due to the stick Godolphin have been receiving in the press and on forum boards. Okay, they haven't made the best of decisions here and there but overall they are a class team and the stats prove it. They've bagged two group 2's and a group 1 in the space of a week....so much for being out of form?!! Their two year old looks extremely promising aswell after running away with the group 2 today and hopefully it will stay injury fr Read more:Temporary
, Forever
Costly Error. 2007-07-31 11:01:00 It's been a pleasing way on some fronts but also I'm a little disappointed on one particular aspect. I've ended the day 1.5% up but it should of been 6%. Aqaleem was my first lay in a very competitive Gordon Stakes and whilst Hills wasn't at his very best, it didn't cost the horse the race in my view. He got out a full 1F out and from my point, Yellowstone was always holding on. My next lay was Divine Spirit and this was where my mistake happened. I was that convinced the horse would lose that I decided to ignore the fact it was going to be a flip start race, which is a complete joke over a 5F race. One of my reasons for laying was his draw too. I could of easily traded out and made a profit as he was at 5.4 for most of the time and I layed at 4.5 avg. As I've found out a few times, the blindingly obvious sometimes isn't so obvious. So I guess I'm still learning complete discipline in some areas.I kept myself calm though and a series of further bets got me back into profit and
Result. 2007-07-30 14:21:00 Well I've just finished for the evening and I'm feeling pretty pleased about things. It didn't get off to a good start with laying the 2 year old favourite at Windsor and I was 6.4% pretty quickly. But, what I think is important is that I was willing to accept a loss on the day. I've been on a great run recently and for it to continue everyday isn't possible so I went into my last two lays with no pressure. Crystal Glazer duly lost and my final lay was the favourite at 8.10. This was a clear, clear stat lay using my course data and whilst the trends are there to be broken, it's such an effective system it had to be layed. It lost and I pulled back 6% from those two bets. So only a 0.4% loss on the day and considering it's been a poor day's racing I'm happy with the outcome. Bring on tomorrow...John. Read more:Result
Time Goes Backwards? 2007-07-30 11:32:00 Today has been very, very slow so far and I'll be continuing this evening to hopefully make my target. I only had two bets this afternoon, the odds on two year old at Yarmouth which absolutely blitzed the field and Holiday Cocktail at Wolverhampton. In hindsight I probably made two errors. Firstly, these odds on two year olds are not doing me any favours, I'm losing more than I am winning and I'm more than likely going to side step them for a while. Secondly, I tried to be a bit too clever with Holiday Cocktail, I layed it for 1.5% pre off time then attempted to get the other 1.5% IR. However, it didn't even go close and I let 1.5% slip by. The result was a slight loss of 0.9% for the afternoon but I've got three lays to fire into this evening which will hopefully do their thing. I'll update later on the results....John. Read more:Backwards
Update. 2007-08-03 15:33:00 Well it was a successful evening with two bets and two losers albeit with one very tight loser in Northern Dare, a three way photo no less. It's nice to get one to go my way as lately a lot of photo's have gone against me.The two year old I did was Quick Off The Mark as I felt it was questionably short given such an open maiden and James Given being 0-20 at Haydock since 2002. I kept to my word about not doing odds on two year olds and it was nice to see it win at Newmarket. There was one bet I missed however in Collete's Choice, I just completely forgot to check the time of the race and I was too late but at least she lost.I've had a great evening at the kartdrome, although I think I've lost about 2 stone in sweat. Karting/driving is probably the best way I relieve stress or workout a few ideas/problems in my head, I just love going fast. Tomorrow looks to be a good a day's racing and I'll be getting stuck into the racing with vigour. The blog has seen a huge rise in numbers la Read more:Update
Long Term. 2007-08-03 10:10:00 I've accepted the situation for the afternoon as I really can't see anything left for the afternoon. I'm down 5.5% after Third Set absolutely destroyed his field. I'm a little disappointed but I've had an excellent run of late and 5.5% is hardly disastrous. I still stand by my lay of Third Set, I got good value in my opinion and that's what counts in the long term. But in hindsight as soon as I saw he was in perfect position after a furlong, perhaps I should of backed him to minimise my loss as part of my reasoning for laying him was due to hopefully finding trouble. Anyway, Northern Dare and maybe a couple of two year olds tonight can bring back some of the loss. It's been a long few days but this isn't an easy thing to get right. I'll update later hopefully with some good news.John. Read more:Long Term
Time. 2007-08-02 10:06:00 I've got a bit of time before evening racing starts as I've finished for the afternoon.I've called it time on my BF thread as it turned into a complete circus due to a few uneducated, niave fools. It seems the norm on forums these days, over run with sheer ignorant idiots. Due to someone being more successful, they decide to ruin a decent thread, very sad indeed. I was asked to post my acc statements to varify that I had done the horses on the thread. Why on earth would I do that? It can be easily fixed and I'm not particuarly interested in people seeing the specific amounts I bet. The amount I bet, is down to me. The results speak for themselves, a few seemed disillusioned that 43% had been made in nine days....they simply couldn't fathom that idea. I just don't feel the need to satisfy one person's curiousity into how much I bet....for what? For him to start dribbling about it being doctored? No thanks...I'm extremely content in letting him think I'm after people to recruit
Solid If Unspectacular. 2007-08-06 15:52:00 I've felt a lot better today and decided to have a crack at the racing and although I only found and did one bet for the afternoon, I'm very pleased with my work and outcome. Earl Marshall looked a very solid lay even though he had recorded fair speed figures. I had big doubts about the ground given his sire and apparent form was on softish ground and with the forecast good to firm going,it was a big doubt. I was also not sure about the trip, it was 2F further than he'd tried before and was conceding a fair bit of weight to Stary Messenger. It ended up an extremely tight finish but an inch in racing is as good as a mile.I've not done tonight's racing as I've had other things on, and these issues are more important to me at this moment in time. However, a nice 3% profit is better than nothing and I'll be looking for 6% tomorrow.John. Read more:Solid
How I Get There... 2007-08-05 13:49:00 I'm in the mood for writing something so here I am. I've had quite a few people ask me how I come to my decision of laying a horse so I thought I'd give a brief outline as to how I tackle it.Firstly, I'll highlight the races in which I think are worth looking at, generally speaking, I like to see a short priced forecast favourite or two/three horses all looking to be fairly short. I've really strayed away from laying horses above 4.5 or so lately and I personally feel it's making a difference. I prefer to steer clear of 3 year old handicaps unless the main protagonists have had quite a few runs. I've been caught out several times by unexposed, improving sorts too many times for comfort. I also stay away from nurseries for the same reason as 3 year olds. Huge fields don't particularly interest me either as generally the prices are too big.Once I've found suitable races, I'll run the race through my ratings at the distance the race will be run then by going then combined. A hor
Time Out. 2007-08-05 01:33:00 I ended up taking Saturday off as I had a few things to get on with and I ended up losing track of time. I've been having problems with my back so I spent most the afternoon at the chiropractors.I'd picked my horses out the evening before and I would of made 6% had I done my bets but sometimes it's important to take a few days off. I'm taking today off aswell as I feel I'm not really in the right mindset to be looking at horseracing. It can get very repetitive on occasions and getting out and about is vital I think to a balanced life.I've got a good post to put up later so hopefully there will be something interesting in there to read.John.
Tough But Fun. 2007-08-09 11:48:00 Today was a successful one and for the first time in a while I had a back bet to kick the day off. Fitzroy Crossing, to me, appeared great value given the class of the maiden he had ran in two runs previously. He ran poorly the next outing but he'd been off a while and maybe something had been amiss. Given the company of his opposition, I was more than willing to risk 1% on the win. He duly obliged and I was quickly 2.6% up. I came unstuck with a two year old at Yarmouth which set be back but I kept it cool and stuck to my bets. I posted my lays on BF today as I thought I'd see what the other, more sensible people had to say. Three solid lays returned me to 6.2% profit for the day and more than enough on what I thought was a tough day's racing.Nick Millard gave me a good giggle today with his childish outburts at readers. I've said it before but the guy just simply cannot take critism of any kind and I've still yet to see him make a decent case for his NAPs. Today was a very light Read more:Tough
Bliss 2007-08-08 15:00:00 Today was bliss, two lays and two successes. It was a combination of the two year old system and laying them due ground worries, course worries and trainer worries. The combination of all that made me confident that I would end the day with 6% and so it proved. Maiden Miss was the first one at Brighton, she had shown promise on her first run on soft ground and tackling firm ground at Brighton is a whole new ball game. Add the fact it was an open contest and 13/8 looked immense value in my view. Kiwi Bay had similar questions to answer and with his trainer only being 1/21 this season with his 2 year olds, 2.6 was just as good value as the first one. They were stand out lays at those prices and although they were unexposed and I generally steer clear of unexposed types, it was the combination of many factors that swayed it for me.It was nice to be able to wrap up nice and early as I've got a few things going on in my personal life that need addressing and I might have to devote a little Read more:Bliss
Successful. 2007-08-07 11:33:00 It's been a successful day gaining 6%. I had two standout lays at Catterick and both came home in 2nd. The first one was a little tight for comfort but as I said yesterday, a loss is a loss. My grounds for laying it as I pointed out on BF was due to him being by Danehill Dancer who was an accomplished sprinter. His record with horses going over 14F was a pretty poor 7% strike rate. Couple that with his poor trainer form and it's low price, it looked a very solid lay. Turns out he stayed reasonably well, he just didn't want to pass.Bridgewater Boys was my second lay and at it's price, I thought it was a fantastic opportunity to make 3%. Whilst he does just about stay 12F, it was clear to me his better form/speed comes over shorter distances. He'd yet to win over the distance and I just felt it was too short given the fact I felt he wouldn't win over this trip. He came home 2nd, although a well beaten second. So a solid day and I'm pleased with things. Roll on tomorrow....John.
Win some, Lose some. 2007-08-12 14:06:00 Although it's been a couple of days since I posted, there isn't too much to report as Saturday was a non event. My internet decided it didn't want me to bet on Saturday and even the Racingpost site was completely playing up and I'd been trying for a good few hours and come 1.30 pm I decided to just leave it as I hadn't completed all the race meetings. So I made the best of the day off and had a relaxing day and ended up getting pretty drunk in the evening at a nice local bar.Sunday looked a good opportunity to get a nice result but unfortunately it didn't work out like that. Motarfarred was my first lay and at 3.9 I thought I was getting a good price to lay. Micky Hammond isn't exactly a prolific trainer and he'd been out of sorts lately and Motarfarred having just a 1 from 16 strike rate on the turf, I had some good reasonings behind laying it. He ended up winning going away and as I lay to win 3% right upto 4.0, 3.9 is a costly loss. I was 8.7% down and not exactly feeling to
Banana's!! 2007-08-10 14:20:00 What a day!! Not so much in terms of racing but this evening I went karting with a few friends and it's been nothing short of mint!Firstly I'll go over the racing and it was a reasonable day in the end with 3.8% made eventually. I started with Ciccone but I only managed to get 1.5% on as the price just kept drifting and I wasn't really interested in chasing it out. It was a strong lay though with some good stats behind it. The trainer, G Moore, was 0-42 in the last five seasons when producing horses on the turf at Lingfield. The stat combined with a horse that doesn't seem to want to win and just plods made it a solid looking lay, it was a shame it wasn't a little shorter. Things got very close when I layed Cormorant Wharf and he was involved in a photo. He'd never won over the distance, and very much seemed suited by being ridden by an amateur combined with a mark he'd never won off.It didn't end all rosy though in the afternoon when I layed Toolittleyourlate. There was a good
Shorties. 2007-08-15 11:52:00 It's been a good day today after a slightly disappointing day yesterday with two solid lays and two losers. Although there were three meeting this afternoon, the majority of the racing was poor fare. I sat it out until the 3.50 where I layed Kaveri who was backed quite heavily and was simply too short for a competitive event and it's speed rating was fairly low down on my ratings. I think the Spencer factor had a lot to do with it's price and I happily layed it. My next lay was Billy One Punch who again was hammered in to a very, very short price given what it had achieved. He'd been beaten by some rivals previously and in terms of speed figures, it was lowly rated. I'm not the biggest fan of George Margusson either and he's been pretty much out of form all season. He ended up only going down a neck but I'm more than happy with the result. I'd just add the importance of keeping patient and waiting for the correct races to lay in, there were short priced horses earlier in the da
Still Learning 2007-08-15 05:42:00 Sorry for the slow updates, Blogger hasn't been working recently here and just kept timing out. Yesterday wasn't my finest with just one lay and it won at 2.88(5.65%). In hindsight it was a weak lay and maybe slightly forced. Brighton was an absolute shocker of a card and the claimer provided an opportunity to find a short priced loser but in reality it was only a two horse race with the other contenders being slower than a fat kid who loves cake too much. Although it was disappointing I'm pleased with my discipline and reaction to it and I left the evening racing alone as all the non runners made funny markets in my opinion and the few I wanted to lay became very possible winners due to their opposition pulling out. I made a mistake yesterday, it's better to realise it than ignore it and blame it on other factors.So today is a new day and I'm looking forward to better cards and better opportunities to find losers..... Read more:Learning
Sweet Success..... 2007-08-13 15:01:00 Today was a nice boost to the confidence levels and a solid 6% gained from two short priced horses. I had to wait until the evening for my selections but as I've mentioned before, patience and discipline is key to success.Beaver Patrol was my first lay and I discussed it with a good friend and I gave solid reasons. He was attempting to win off a very high mark and had previously failed to do so and I just felt that the competition was better than the betting suggested. However my best lay for me came at Thirsk and Sohraab who ended up just odds on. I wasn't overly convinced with his latest victory and the small rise in the weights was enough for me to take him on especially at such a short price given the inconsistency of the horse. Also he hadn't actually recorded that high a speed figure and I generally like to take on odds on shots in low handicaps. I've not checked but my strike rate with laying odds on shots must be pretty useful from recent bets.Looking forward to tomorrow... Read more:Sweet
, Success
Recommend Site To A Friend
