Owner: The Dream Lives URL:johnsdreamon.blogspot.com Join Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2007 12:39:48 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: A simple blog about a young guy trying to succeed at professional gambling. Site statistics:Click here
Rested. 2007-06-14 06:40:00 I decided to take yesterday off as I was feeling less than 100% and I thought it would be better to take the day off than trying to force things and feeling like my head had been on super fast spin. So not much else to report but hopefully I can make a nice little return today. I've got all my lays written down and I'll be sticking to them like glue.John.
Worrying. 2007-06-18 15:41:00 It was another very up and down day today and it's knocking my confidence a little bit at the moment. I'm down 5.5% for the day which isn't a huge amount but just annoying more than anything. Started off on a sour note with Little Jimbob winning and I hate starting with a winner. I just couldn't have it at the price of 4.1 on the ground and he'd been in poor recent form yet it wins fairly well. Baffling doesn't come close. I know I can't be right 100% of the time and it's definitely showing as I'm operating around 78% at the minute, very much on the low side.At least my lay of Tiger Woods came off and I also did some trading on several players and managed to win over 5% on the event. Royal Ascot tomorrow and I'm looking forward to some cracking racing and a profitable few days if I can just get back on track and stop worrying about needless things. Worrying isn't a good trait in this business so I'm going to try and stay positive and think simple. Well I'm shattered so I'
Mix and Match. 2007-06-17 11:13:00 It's a been a mixed weekend really, pretty disappointed with how Saturday turned out especially after being over 7.8% up and frittering it all away with needless bets. However today was a better outcome and also I made a good save with my last lay. I'm 7.8% up but it could of easily of been nearer zero had I not traded Rose Of Petra. Intial thoughts were it was a safe lay but after going over it a third time which I'm finding more and more beneficial. The risk wasn't worth the reward basically and it won so I'm happy I left it well alone.It's going to be an interesting night with the golf, Tiger is 0-28 when trying to win a Major from behind and I'm going to let my lay ride out. If he wins then congrats to him and I won't be too disappointed. He looks like he's in playing well and being smart but thats a big stat to overcome. I'd love to see Paul Casey in the mix coming into the home stretch.John. Read more:Match
In and Out. 2007-06-23 09:05:00 Last night turned into a battle royale in the end. But after starting with two winners I finished with a nice flourish laying several in the 3% bracket which is where I can make dividends.Today has been the complete opposite where I've had 2 races and made 6% quite easily and I've been able to stop and I'm glad I did. There are an awful lot of tough races today with several unexposed horses and dangerous horses. I've not even looked at this evening and I can't tell you how good it feels to be able to relax instead of grafting away on a Saturday evening. I'm feeling a lot more comfortable and relaxed in general too which is a whole lot better than what I have been feeling lately.John.
Hungover.. 2007-06-22 13:06:00 Thursday was very sensible with the racing and I'd made 4.8% after the 2.25 at Lingfield so sticking with what I've decided is more sensible and financially better I was able to stop and take the afternoon off. I ended up going out with a few friends and got completely wrecked and I've been recovering all morning and afternoon plus I've had to show a few people around Dubai which meant I missed this afternoon's racing. I'm glad I did as I really couldn't face doing any racing this afternoon.I've started my thread again after deciding I'd rather post my lays than not after a few people said I shouldn't post them. I enjoy posting them and will continue to do so until I see fit. I've got a few this evening and fingers crossed I can hit my 4.8% or 6% without any fuss...John.
Thinking Man 2007-06-20 15:55:00 It's been a mixed couple of days and I've also been doing a hell of lot of thinking too. Tuesday wasn't too hot, I ended up losing 6% on the day but today was more like the good times...I won 6% and I decided to leave it at that and didn't even look at this evening's racing. This is down to me deciding I'm going to stop for the day once I reach either 4.8% or 6%. The reason for this is I've noticed over a period of time where I've hit that target but ended up with a loss on the day. Over a period of just 10 days it's a massive 40% difference. At the levels I'm playing at now, that's a huge amount to be missing out on. It's quite the U-turn after me saying on this blog I didn't believe in stopping at certain targets but my system as a whole has changed so much that it makes financial sense to do so and considering financial motivation is why I'm doing what I do, I'm not about to look a gift horse in the mouth.More tomorrow...
Going... 2007-06-27 04:41:00 With the rain causing complete mayhem with non runners and abandoned meetings I thought I'd write a little bit about why I enjoy it when conditions change markedly. When the going is consistent, form is consistent and favourites, 2nd favourites and 3rd favourites are generally there for a reason. They've shown consistent form on going that has been similar for a while. Before the rain arrived I mentioned I kept finding most the favourites had solid claims on all accounts making it hard to find solid lays. But with all this rain it really throws things out of the window. Horses are favourite with no apparent form on soft going yet still they are backed.Although Cosmic Destiny wasn't backed yesterday, he was available at less than 5.0 for most of the afternoon before his mammoth drift. His speed figure and form on good to soft/soft going was no where near his better form on a sounder surface. His price in the end reflected his chance of winning in my opinion, he went all the way out t Read more:Going
Consistent. 2007-06-26 13:05:00 Although there was just the one meeting this afternoon I managed to have a lay in every single race lol. Started out nicely and was 3% up after the first race but came a little unstuck with the second race which left me 1.8% down. I've been in far, far worse situations and I just stuck to my lays for the afternoon and ended up with 4.8% profit on the afternoon. Cosmic Destiny gave me a big fright after being 17's IR and higher then rocketing down to 1.11 before finishing 3rd. So another productive day with the lays and this last week has been one of my better weeks and I'm enjoying a rivival of form.Sorry for the short post, try and make a more substanial post tomorrow sometime.
Staking System Explained... 2007-06-25 09:49:00 I thought I'd write a little bit about why I decided on my staking system compared to level stakes. All staking plans are mathematically based and it’s a question of finding which suits your needs best. I have three distinct brackets with varying percentages. 3%, 1.8% and 1.2%. To translate a percentage into a point its best to use a theoretical bank of 50 points which totals 100%. With level stakes you'd be using 2% per selection. Let's take a horse at 4/1, it loses you gain a point. With my staking system you'd only gain 1.8% which is obviously slightly less but the advantages comes if the horse wins, using level stakes it would cost you 4 points or 8%. With the percentage system you'd only lose 7.2%. The biggest gains come with horses priced 3/1 (4.0) or less. I aim to win 3% per selection or 1.5 points. Over a series of 100 selections using an 83% strike rate you would gain an extra 41.5 points or 83%. With the 17 winners at an average of 2.1/1 you'd lose 53.55 points using Read more:Staking
, System
Target Reached.. 2007-06-24 10:29:00 It's been another good day with the lays and I reached 5.8% and that is more than enough. I've still got a couple of lays to go and I'll note how they go but its nice being able to stop. Over the last 5 days I've reached my target and been able to stop and its working better than I could of hoped. I generally find I start well and occasionally finish poorly so another advantage of stopping at set percentages is coming to light.I've got a good post about the advantages and disadvantages of my staking plan and I'll get it up later this evening or tomorrow morning as quite a few people have asked why I use it compared to level stakes/ level liabilities etc. Read more:Target
All Good Things... 2007-06-30 11:57:00 Yesterday saw my good run of making a profit come to an end. I ended up being down 12%. I guess it was to be expected sooner or later and with just two good days work I can recover those loses. I was going well with 2 losers and 3.6% up but unfortunately it went sour after that. Majestical hurt the most as it hit over 20's IR but I didn't trade out. That's maybe something I should look at, trading a small percentage of profit to reduce my liability. He was still a maiden on turf after some 24 attempts. All good runs come to an end as they say.I've not touched racing this afternoon as I've spent the day relaxing and having a good time instead of getting straight back into racing. I'm about to start this evening's racing though and hopefully I can make my percentage quickly and stop for the day.John.
Unpleasant... 2007-06-29 05:01:00 I didn't really want to have to make this post but it seems I have a complete fucking weirdo following my every move. Teabaghead was banned on WBX for continuous crap, useless threads. Most of you will know I think the guy is a first class clown.He's since decided to try and leave comments on my blog using different people's names, namely Andrew Black and James Willoughby. I've sent emails to the racingpost and to Andrew Black informing them of this as I'm sure they don't want idiotic people pretending to be them. His latest little outburst is about me being reported to the authorities for a racist comment about Venus Williams, it was left under an anonymous name.So the outcome is, I'll only be publishing comments from people who hold an account with blogger which means anonymous people can't leave their comments. If the genuine anonymous readers do want to get in touch, you can always do so by email.John.
Different Route, Same Outcome... 2007-06-28 12:28:00 Well it was a different day to yesterday but the overall outcome was the same....4.8% made enabling me to stop for the day. There were a lot of two year old races at all 3 meetings to kick things off with and I'm using a very efficient and profitable two year old system. However I had my first winner with it in the first race, Jamie Spencer onboard and a big drifter in the market, I was licking my lips at the prospect of him losing only to see it win lol. It kind of left a sour taste in my mouth as most of you will know I despise the little cretin. He looks miserable as sin pretty much 24/7 when he's got a lot to be grateful for. It didn't take long to get back on track though and the same system produced a loser at Newcastle so amends were made. I also layed another Jamie Spencer mount in the second at Yarmouth so I pulled one back against him. So another good day with the racing and I really couldn't be happier with how things are going at the moment.Tiny Tim is out of Wimbledon.
Start...Stop!!! 2007-06-27 13:13:00 I think today had to be the shortest and quickest I've ever made my profit in. Within 10 minutes of racing starting I'd made my 6% for the day. I was like erm.... What to do now? lol. I'm very happy with days like today though, minimal effort and maximum reward, there aren't many jobs which only take 10 minutes to accomplish the targets.I've had 8 very solid days and my bank has increased by over 44% in that period by stopping at either 4.8% or 6%. I've had a couple of days where it's been 6.6% and 5.8% and they've helped but since I've accepted to stop at set percentages things have been going very, very well. 8 days is of course a tiny amount of time but I'm confident I can keep things ticking over nicely.My lay prices are getting shorter and shorter and when I do a hit a winner, it's usually gained back with 2 or 3 successful lays. So all in all things are looking on the up...John. Read more:Start
Slow And Easy Wins The Day... 2007-07-03 14:43:00 Today was a good day! Two bets and 6% made. I took my time and didn't rush anything and I stuck to my plan and it worked. It's been two weeks since I decided to stop at set percentages and bar my losing day of 12% I've hit my target everyday. I certainly wouldn't be up anywhere near what I am now if I continued each day and not stopped. I just really hope it can continue in the same form.I'm enjoying my racing more and more lately, I can't explain how important it is to have a separate hobby/interest other than your job. I've realised when I was in the UK, my head was literally in racing every single day, non stop. And although I'm still doing racing everyday, it's for vastly shorter amounts of time and I've occasionally taken the afternoon off and not worried about what races I'm missing. I took myself to the driving range yesterday and it felt good to hit a few balls again, albeit not the same way I used to but with practice it can return.Well it's been a very long day an
That Feeling... 2007-07-03 02:27:00 It was somewhat of a struggle with racing yesterday but I eventually got the results I wanted and finished with 4.5% profit. The day kicked off on a bad note in the lady amateur's race with the favourite winning, it looked a good lay but sometimes even the good ones turn bad. I was 2% up until my two year old system produced a winner, it's had a couple of winners lately but overall it's proving very effective.What has been tested lately is my discipline to refrain from betting in races I have no business in. Learning to just play the races I have planned is a battle at times, especially when there are long gaps between races. I am a gambler at heart, no doubt, I love the feeling of a winning bet. It's a very rare commodity in life, it cannot be bought, it is only achieved through having a bet. Sometimes I think it will be my downfall but so far I haven't felt the need to bet in races I don't need to, not even silly little bets. Some people allow themselves those sort of bets but Read more:Feeling
Uneventful... 2007-07-02 04:37:00 Saturday evening ended up being a successful evening with two bets returning 6% profit. It was a nice feeling especially after the losing day before. All in all it was pretty uneventful night, the best kind. Sunday was a nice day off with no flat racing in the UK and I took the opportunity to catch up with a few friends and have some drinks.I've also decided to really make an effort to get back into my golf as several people are interested in me coaching them to become better players. A lot of corporate types are finding golf a great way of socialising with their clients but not a lot know how to play so thats where I come in. I need to do some practicing of my own first as it's been a while since I played properly and I don't want to start embarassing myself lol.John.
Eventful 2007-07-07 14:22:00 It's been a pretty eventful couple of days really with the racing, Friday was a good day but a battle. I eventually got to 4.5% up and decided that was more than enough for a tough day and was actually pretty pleased in the end. I was going nicely until Champagne Shadow won which put me 3% down but I fought back well. What was slightly annoying was the fact he traded at over 20's IR and I didn't reduce any of my liability when I've mentioned before about doing so. Sometimes greed can overcomes me and I make a few errors like not reducing my liability but thankfully on the day overall it didn't harm me but it's definitely something I'll keep in mind on future days. It was also a hard lay to swallow as I had it down as my best lay of the day, I just couldn't see it beating several rivals on those terms but I've seen it before, when it looks too good it generally is.I went out last night and got absolutely wrecked and I've felt like death the whole day but thankfully I felt a li Read more:Eventful
Keeping Patient. 2007-07-05 13:06:00 It was yet another solid day for me today gaining 6%. I decided to keep my powder dry until this evening as the couple of lays I had lined up looked very good for this evening compared to a dull card at Yarmouth. I think in previous years I'd of definitely tried to of forced something at Yarmouth instead of keeping patient. I posted my first lay of Augustine on the BF forum and it was nice to see someone actually took my advice and didn't back it as he originally intended to. My next lay was Billion Dollar Kid, using the two year old system. I also had it as a stats lay so a double whammy and made even more sweeter with my least favourite jockey of all time on, Mr. Frank Spencer lol.I was amazed at Augustine's priced to be honest, on all known form it wasn't going to beat Street Life or Great View yet they sent it off as 2/1 favourite. It's prices like those I love. Augustine does actually have a good speed figure but it sometimes pays to look a little deeper than a number, he do
In Form... 2007-07-04 14:40:00 It was another successful day with the racing winning 6%. The two year system produced my first lay and Amy Louise completed my 6%. The two year system really is a huge beneficial system to me and although as the season moves on there will be less and less bets it's nice knowing that its a very reliable tool to use.I really feel as if things have moved up a gear lately and I'm extremely pleased with my progress, its nearing 6 months since I first started racing as my sole income and I couldn't of imagined things would of worked out like they have and I'm sure the next 6 months will hold a few surprises too. I think one of the key factors to being successful is the ability to be able to adapt. I've mentioned before that my own system has changed out of all recognition, change is necessary in this industry and I'm pleased I've been able to adapt and take it in my stride.John.
Slog 2007-07-12 01:54:00 It was a long old day with the racing yesterday. One of those total grinding days and a lot of work for a relatively small gain. 1.5% was the profit in the end and I'm reasonably happy with that although yet again I made some small errors. You're SoThrilling looked a decent lay at 2.4 which I layed him it and whilst I knew a high draw was advantagous after watching the first 2 races, I didn't expect 2/3 of the field to go far side where it was obviously slower ground. He also hit 50's IR inside the last furlong but I wasn't quick enough to get any of liability reduced. Nannina got me back on track and then it was a long wait until my next lay which was the 2 year old system at Kempton in the evening, that was another 3% gained and after a long day I decided to leave it at that. After me saying I win my majority of days quickly, the last two days have been a slog lol.Fingers crossed things can be a lot simpler and straight forward today!!John.
Tough Day. 2007-07-10 13:01:00 It's been a very, very slow day today and a small loss. I'm down 1.5% for the day after doing two bets this afternoon and nothing particularly catches my eye this evening and I'm really not in the mood to have a proper look so I'm going to leave well alone for this evening.Red Current was my first lay, I layed him at an avg of 2.45, a price I was happy with and one I thought was far too short. It drifted and drifted and drifted some more to a high of 4.1 before the off. It even hit over 20's IR and yet again I failed to reduce my liability. It's proving a very frustrating lesson to learn and one I'm annoyed I've not grasped yet. It sounds like a moan but I seriously seem to have all the close photo finishes go against me, off the top of my head its something like 7/9 have won when in a photo finish the last 4 weeks or so. Mandalay Prince brought back 3% though and overall I've just put it down as a very tough day with very mediocre racing, the maidens held no advantage for me Read more:Tough
Banked. 2007-07-09 11:48:00 Well I had a good day today with two bets yielding 6% profit. I posted my bets on the Betfair Forum today as there seems to be a lot more interest there than anywhere else and 90% of the time, positive and constructive opinions are posted by other users which makes it a lot more enjoyable when posting my lays.Things kicked off with Cotton Eyed Joe who I was a little lost as to why it was so short, there were so many factors against him that it seemed a good, solid lay. Whilst his speed figure was in the top three on my ratings, they were achieved under different conditions and sometimes it pays to look deeper than what first appears a solid speed figure. Risque Heights was without a doubt the best lay of the day, after a promising first few runs he's definitely tailed off lately and doesn't deserve a figure anywhere near 67. He's been running to mid 50's lately and considering my 3 year old stats pointed towards it losing too, I was very happy to see it at 2.32 to lay. Whilst I don
Numbers... 2007-07-08 15:10:00 Sunday was another solid day gaining 4.8% with two races. It was a case of patience again as my first bet was the two year old system at Brighton and my last bet came in the very last race at Ayr. Although to be fair, after the first race, I left my bet up and went out for the afternoon and went karting and got extremely hot! lol. It was nice to come home to a nice result though.I can't really explain it but things really seem to be a whole lot simpler now, I feel absolutley no pressure at all and it feels fantastic. It's like any profession though I guess, people work best when they feel no pressure. (Except if your name is Tiger Woods who seems to eat up pressure).I've been going 19 days at stopping at a set percentage and only one losing day, thats a very nice 94.7% rate of having a day with profit. But the key thing is here is that my actual strike rate of picking losers is still roughly between 80-85%. I like figures, I see a lot things through figures, I look upon racing as nu Read more:Numbers
Mixed Bag. 2007-07-15 10:39:00 It's been a mixed weekend really with two very different days. Saturday wasn't my finest hour and I ended the day 6% down but was reasonably pleased to of pulled it back as I was 11% down at one point. All was going well after my first lay of The Grey Berry and I was 3% up but the wheels came off briefly after that and I layed two winners in a row which hasn't happened in quite a while, Prospect Court just holding on in a tight finish and Cesare winning impressively in the end. In hindsight maybe I shouldn't of layed Cesare but I felt several factors were against him. The two year system was my next bet and it duly lost at 11/8 and pulled me back 3%. Madaarek was my final lay of the afternoon and I was very happy to see how short it was, I had him as a 4/1 shot at best.The evening bets were just the 2 two year old system bets with one winning and one losing and a slight loss on the evening of 0.9% and 6% overall for the day. I wasn't too downheartened as I have been on a very good Read more:Mixed
, Mixed Bag
Amusing. 2007-07-13 12:54:00 It was a good day today winning 6% in two races and I was finished by 2.25 which left my afternoon free which as I've mentioned before, is a nice feeling. I was listening to sportslive radio today and it was highly comical. I'm not a great fan of Nick Millard and he proved why this afternoon with some very, very childish outbursts and he cannot take any critism in the slightest. I also dis-like Tim Thorton his apparant bum chum. Millard napped Feared In Flight, a short priced two year old in a very competitive race, it lost and it was actually one of my lays. I emailed in saying I've noticed over a long period of time that the majority of his NAPS are very shorted priced favourites and only 30% of favourites win. I'll take any bet that he is not in profit with his NAP selections, there is just no chance. His reply was highly typical of him saying that his last selection won at 9/2. He forgot to mention that was nearly two weeks ago. Tim Thorton chimed in with 'my nap wasn't favou
Number 23 2007-07-12 12:46:00 Today was the complete opposite of yesterday, two bets and a nice 6% profit made. I didn't even spend anytime watching the racing this afternoon, I got my bets matched and left it at that and went to the cinema to watch a film I'm still thinking about now, it was 'The Number
23'. Excellent film and a very good twist at the end, I'm just glad 23 has no relation to me in any shape or form.Sixties Icon was my first and only lay of the afternoon, it was just too short against what I felt was a class field and it didn't surprise me to see Papal Bull win given the fact he had form over Sixties Icon and he's just a funny character. Sixties Icon was also in the bottom third speed rated which counts for a lot as you know. I did have a possible two other lays in the afternoon but I thought it made more sense to use the two year old system at Folkestone in the first race and it duly worked wonders. It seems no matter how many people know about it, the system horse always seems to get backe
Aim...Hit. 2007-07-17 11:40:00 Today was a good day in the end and I ended up gaining 6%. Things kicked off not how I wanted though when I layed Gleneagles in the first at Beverley. Using all the stats I have for different age groups and different price bands, the sequence showed a very possible loss and given it was drawn 1 I thought it was worth the lay. It also hit 20's IR but yes you guessed it, I didn't manage to balance my liability. Lemon Silk pulled me back 1.8% and that one really stood out to me and I tried to get 3% on IR but unfortuntely it never went low enough for me. My next lay was Ten On Line as I had it just too tight on ratings between the field for it to be 2.1 at the time I layed it. My next lays were Great As Gold and Red River Rebel who I nearly fell off my chair when I saw the price of 2.4. As good as a lay as it gets in a lady amatuer's race in my opinion. I posted all my lays on the BF forum today too as I like to get input/feedback from time to time on my lays.It took a little longer th
Correct Price? 2007-07-17 03:20:00 Whilst Monday was a good day gaining 4.8% it was a very slow day. My patience was tested and I survived. I had originally planned on laying Artless but I was expecting it to be around the 2.0 mark and it had been drifting all day to 2.8 on the off. That was probably it's correct price and it went on to win quite nicely in the end. Leaving a horse alone to due the price not being right is a very, very hard area to get right and I'm sure maybe a few years ago or even last year I'd of layed it anyway. But to succeed you need discipline, there will always be another horse at the correct price.I'm not sure how people think about the horses correct price, I'd be interested to hear people's views on it. I've got three more days left of the month since I started stopping at set percentages and I'm looking forward to seeing the results and comparing them to what would of happened if I just continued everyday.John.. Read more:Correct
Pleasing End. 2007-07-19 12:24:00 Today was a lot like yesterday in the fact that I had a good feeling about the day's racing. I had two horses that I just couldn't have at their respective prices. My first bet came in the claimer at Hamilton in Throw The Dice. He had over 10lbs to find on OR with Spiritual Peace and I personally felt on my own figures that he hadn't been running upto his own rating anyway so to find extra improvement was out of the question in my opinion. I was quite surprised to see him backed into favourtism. My next lay was the 3 horse race at Leceister well it was on the face of it a 2 horse race as the outsider was hopelessly outclassed. For a horse that was unproven on very soft ground and after some poor runs in Dubai I thought he definitely wasn't better than an evens shot and at 8/11 was well worth the lay. So 6% made on my final day of my first month stopping at set percentages and a very nice way to round off the month, I'll post the exact figures later this evening or tomorrow morning
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