Owner: The Dream Lives URL:johnsdreamon.blogspot.com Join Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2007 12:39:48 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: A simple blog about a young guy trying to succeed at professional gambling. Site statistics:Click here
Dreams and Tears. 2007-05-09 17:24:00 What a few days on several fronts. On a personal front it's been a disaster, my girlfriend and I have parted ways and it's given me an incentive to get back to Dubai, leaving at the end of May. I'm a little shell shocked but now I'm on my own I can concentrate 110% on my dreams.Monday was mediocre, the backs failed miserably really and I've really decided to cut it down to 2/3 a day at most. Yesterday was more what I've been used to gaining around 10% which was much needed considering the run before that! There was an interesting race at Beverley today involving Kames Park, Kilimandscharo and several other good horses. I was conviced Kilimandscharo was a lay, his form simply didn't measure upto the others in my view and on a speed rating it wasn't the top rated. Sometimes things are aren't as clear cut as they seem I guess. However fortunes certainly turned around by laying Stotswold and Collette's Choice who had no right being as short as it was, it wasn't pleasant to see a Read more:Dreams
, Tears
Hectic 2007-05-13 20:02:00 I got my first taste of being super busy on Saturday with 6 meetings and I enjoyed it, I love going from one race to the next, quite a rush. Wow, I sound like an addicted gambler, lol. In terms of profit, it was reasonably good, I gained 9% of my bank. I couldn't help lay Zidane as I thought he was a hype horse and wasn't too suited to 6F but he plowed home nicely. I got stuck into several Godolphin horses that got turned over at fairly skinny odds.I've had a nice day off today except for a small back on Peace Offering in France. It was a shame to see Finsecial Beo lose but I'm sure she'll return to winning ways in the Irish 1,000 Guinea's. Not a lot else to report right now really so I'll end it here. I'll be back posting my lays on WBX tomorrow, I just didn't have time on Saturday. Roll on the 27th when I get back to Dubai!! This rain is miserable.John. Read more:Hectic
Looking Ahead. 2007-05-12 00:36:00 Today was an excellent day in terms of racing. I won over 17% of my bank and it's really starting to motor forward. I've always known that the more money I have in my betting account, the faster it would grow but it really is fantastic seeing it grow like it is right now.My ultimate goal is to have a constant 100k in Betfair and reset it every month. Today would of seen an income of 17,200 pounds and the thought of that really makes me smile. Money isn't of course everything but it goes a long way to reaching my goals in life. Of course, a losing day will be an ugly thing at such high stakes but it's all about keeping a level head I believe. Reaching a constand 100k bank is some way off though but it is always in the back of mind, it's a good motivator.I've been trying to keep busy to keep my mind from wondering onto other things and I've been planning some sweet modifications to my car which as I've said a lot before is probably my second passion after horseracing. So I'm def
Drained. 2007-05-16 23:24:00 Tuesday was pretty good for me, I made just over 6% and I'm content making that sort of profit/ percentage a day. I was taking a bit of chance laying Off The Record and a few stats pointed to the way of it losing but the way he won impressed me a lot and I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him for some big sprints this year, he's still a young 3 yr old and can only improve.I decided to take today off as I saw no real edge in any of the races and to be honest I'm feeling completely drained both physically and mentally. I'm at a complete loss without my girlfriend, she was my best friend and now I'm flying solo. I've had my head in racing constantly for close to 8 weeks solid and I'm feeling the effects. I think I'll take a few days off when I get back to Dubai for sure.I got chatting to someone the other night and we ended up discussing jobs. I was asked what it was I did for a job and I replied 'I bet on horses for a living', to which they replied 'that can't possibly be
Up She Goes, Down She Goes.. 2007-05-14 19:05:00 Just settling down to the evening racing so just thought I'd do a quick update. Today has been pretty up and down, I've had 3 winners out of 10 selections so far but I'm actually up 0.3% at the moment with a couple to go this evening. I guess this highlights the value of my staking system. Whitbarrow stormed home but I layed him at 4.1 at 1.8% so cost a little over 5%. I was surprised to see Blackheath win so well, that was probably the biggest surprise winner today. 5 of my lays have been in the 3% bracket and that makes a huge difference compared to laying at level stakes which would be 2% so I've clawed back an extra 5% by just using a more advanced staking system. Hopefully I can squeeze out 3/4% today and I'll more than pleased with that.I've got several things to look forward to when I'm back, not least is getting my car setup perfectly although there aren't many events to enter during the summer months. My mum is having a fairly major operation on the 16th and I'm a lit
On A Plane 2007-05-19 07:11:00 Its 1.15 am UK time and I’m currently somewhere over Turkey. I received some bad news from home and decided to not wait any longer and fly home today, bit of a mad rush and I was packed up and on the bus to Heathrow within 2 hrs of the call. My ex girlfriend dropped me off at the bus station and boy was it emotional saying goodbye, I’m not sure when I’ll see her again but I really hope I do sometime in the near future. She’s taught me a lot about myself and I’m grateful for that. I know she reads this and I’m ok Soph. Checking in was somewhat of a mare as I was stuck behind the largest family I’ve ever seen with the largest amount of bags I’ve ever seen. Needless to say it was painful beyond belief!I haven’t even had time to check my results from today so I’m not too sure if I’ve had a good day or crap day. I felt reasonably confident with the selections but that doesn’t mean they won’t have won, lol. I need to add a few links that people have asked I’ll ge Read more:Plane
Comedy 2007-05-22 14:06:00 It's been another strong day with the lays, currently 13.2% up with Penang Cinta still to go, now why does this sound familiar? lol. I should stop but i'm confident with the last one and I'll take whatever result happens. Despite Ashes Regained winning last night I'm on quite a run at the minute with only 2 winners out of the last 22 lays.Now onto something hilarious. Teabaghead seems to be fasicinated with me. He's decided to adopt my picture and draw on it as his avatar on WBX. Now I don't know about you but is this actions of a sane middle aged man? Clearly not, the freak follows me, reads my blog everyday, saves comments I write on WBX, tries and comments here under different names, has several accounts on WBX and is generally a fucking weirdo. The sad twat actually lives for the internet, he doesn't have the balls to say any of it in real life. I'm surprised i'm even wasting my time on him but bless he tries so hard!!!! He's said about a million times he's going to igno Read more:Comedy
Making Hay. 2007-05-21 13:21:00 It's been an excellent day so far, although I didn't post my lays on WBX, I have posted a few over on the BF forum which was fun for a change. It's certainly full of different characters. I'm 12.4% up so far with one lay to go of Ashes Regained in the 8.20 at Wolverhampton. I think my most pleasing result was thr 7.10 at Windsor. Bergonzi to me stood out a mile on form and speed. My Secrets form to me, was no where near as good in comparision to the favourite and a couple of others. A standout lay and it duly got beat and Bergonzi knuckling down to win.I'm not sure if I've mentioned this before but Oh. My. God. It's fricking hot here and it's not even June yet :(. Right, well not a lot else to say so I'll end it here and fingers crossed for the last lay.Update: Ashes Regained won despite a markedly big drift on BF before the off, I'm annoyed really. I was 12.4% up and should of called it a day like I have done before. This time I decided to carry on and bang it wins with my m
Home. 2007-05-20 10:27:00 I spent most of Saturday just relaxing and really didn't feel like doing anything with the racing and glad I did. It's nice to be back but boy is it hot!!! Gonna take a week or two to get used to the heat again for sho.Today was a good day with the racing, I posted my lays over at WBX again. I thought Rio Riva was just too short considering what he had achieved. A couple of stats and speed figures made me decide it was well worth the risk and duly lost. Amy Louise is a 7F horse in my opinion and faded out of things near the end. I decided to leave my last lay alone as I've had another think about it and I've got myself undecided. When that happens, it's definitely the right move to leave it alone. It may well lose but I'm happy enough with close to 5% profit on the day. So all in all, a nice return to Dubai...John.
Persistance. 2007-05-25 14:25:00 Weeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!! After a less than perfect start to the afternoon, I've finished like a train and currently 11% up with the dreaded last lay to go, lol. McEldowney in the 8.30 at Pontefract.Illustrious Blue started me off on the wrong foot and soon after Record Breaker added to my troubles and I wasn't far off from stopping for the day as I was 13% down and pretty close to the end of my patience but from there in, I've had a fantastic day. I've had 4 lays in the 3% bracket which really helps and unfortunately Sky More was one of them. I've said previously, I dislike winning on a horse when it breaks down, condolensces to the connections of a very talented horse. Gary Mather has as much class as a crack addict whore, and he should get the bullet in my opinion, disgraceful comments about Sky More.Well, a busy weekend ahead with racing and car stuff, fitting my exhaust tomorrow, it should sound a monster!! I'll get a little video up when it's all fitted etc. I love my job som
Nutcracker. 2007-05-24 17:15:00 A solid if unspectacular day with a profit of just under 5%. The day didn't start too well with Halicanassus beating the Godolphin odds on shot. It was an interesting race as using course statistics and age groups then further still breaking the age groups into different price brackets, the stats showed there was a high possibility that the odds on shot would lose. The average odds on shot win roughly 60% of the time but I have statistics for each course for 2, 3 and 4 yr olds and then different price ranges. Goodwood 3 yr old odds on shots roughly only win 45% of the time and it had been running above that average at 59%. Using trends you can highlight winners and losers quite frequently ( 90%).Why I decided to go against the stats I'm a little unsure, perhaps a mind over matter thing. It was a 3 runner event and it could of easily become tactical (which it did, it was run nearly 9 seconds above standard). I'm still learning this game and I doubt I'll stop learning as long as I co
Come On You Red's!! 2007-05-23 13:41:00 Another solid day, the bank gaining by just over 4%. I posted my lays over at WBX just to keep the thread going and to try and generate a bit of interest really. As I said on my thread, I knew I was in trouble with Dorn Dancer when I see the colossal drift of She's Minnie from 2.75 to 5.1 come the off. But the remaining 6 lays lost to end the day with a respectable profit. A couple were slightly longer than I expected but nothing really to grumble about.I've been on quite a run the last few days/ week with a profit being shown for consecutive days and it's boosting the bank quite nicely and just in time for peak flat racing season.I've been running away with ideas in my head about making between 120-150% of my bank during the busy summer months and the amounts that could/ can be made. If things continue as they are now and have been then there is no reason to not expect some very tasty profits.Champion's League has just kicked off and really pulling for a Liverpool victory! I've
Just Like Magic... 2007-05-27 10:42:00 Well after me saying I'd like a good weekend, bang I have it. Friday was excellent, Saturday was equally if not better. Today was very steady too, two lays and both lost, 4.8% gained. So over the last three days my bank has increased just over 31%. To say I'm chuffed is beyond belief, it seems everything is running like clockwork. I'm averaging 85% strike rate and my average winner is now down to 2.89/1.I just hope this run can continue throughout the summer months, I see no reason why it shouldn't but even the best laid plans go wrong occasionally. I managed to fit my exhaust last night and it looks the tits! lol. It may only be a little Clio Sport but the thing flys. It easily keeps up with cars 5x the price and with nearly double it's power. Porsche Boxter's are probably my best conquest. It goes round corners like glue and it reguarly keeps the best company on track days, speaking of which, I'm looking forward to the next one in June. I think my next car will most likely be Read more:Magic
TIme Out. 2007-05-31 03:15:00 I'm going to take today off and see how I feel tomorrow. Yesterday was running smooth as silk until the evening racing. I was 15.5% up and I had 3 lays for the evening. All 3 won which hasn't happened in sometime and I managed to end the day 2% down. I think it was the last thing I needed so I'm going to try and relax today and just completely forget about racing today.Thanks to all of you who have wished me good luck getting back on track, it's much appreciated.John.
Let It All Out... 2007-05-30 03:19:00 Yesterday could not have turned out any worse. What was already a pretty bad day turned out to be my worst ever day caused by simple lack of concentration and idiocy. I was down 19% when I decided to back a horse in running, it was available at 4.1. However I didn't press the back button but the lay button. To make the situation even worse instead of doing 350 pounds I pressed zero twice and rushed. So the aftermath of it was I layed 3,500 at 4.1 costing me 10,850. 50% of my bank disappeared in one day. I can't really describe how I feel, I don't really think it's sunk in yet that 27 days of hard work has been completely wasted by a stupid, weak mistake.I know mistakes can and will happen but it was sheer madness. I could scream the house down right now. The only way I'm going to get past this is to try and forget about it as soon as possible and just go about rebuilding my bank to where it was. Okay so 1 month has been wasted, at least I still have the busiest period coming up wh
What To Do?? 2007-05-29 03:37:00 Well yesterday was a bit of a non event really as the internet service provider decided it was going to mainstream maintenence without informing it's customers. Wonderful. It would be of been a strong day too with 6 out of my 7 lays losing and the winning one at 5/4. It's annoying but it was out of my control so I decided to take advantage of the day off and went out and about. The net is running extremely slowly today but fingers crossed it's sorted by racing starts.John.
Nice.. 2007-06-03 15:56:00 Well it's been another successful weekend and after the mid week antics it's been much appreciated. I made 8% today from just the one flat meeting and I'm very pleased with those results. Everything just slotted into place today, I found my 3 races and for some reason, everything stood out an absolute mile today, I mean obviously all my lays do in my opinion but more so today.I've undertaken an interesting project with a friend and I think it's going to work very well, I'll explain more details further down the line, still in the early stages right now.I've been speaking to a few new people the last few days and it's been refreshing hearing some new ideas and thoughts on what I do, I can't say I agree with them all but still interesting. Onwards and upwards as they say....
Get The Champagne! 2007-06-03 07:08:00 Saturday was a very enjoyable day all round for me and also a profitable one. It started with a massive bang with Golden Dagger coming third and paying over 10/1 for a place, it went off 100/1 on BF and I backed it for a very small amount and layed off at an avg of 20/1 for a nice result. I ended up winning just over 10% by the end of racing and although I was at a peak of 17% I'm not too disappointed. I layed Authorised and backed Eagle Mountain each way so I was actually happy with the result as I think deep down I wanted Frankie to win. There were just too many stats and ifs and buts to not lay it and as I layed it at 2.06 the loss was minimal.Loved it when he said 'right get the fucking champagne' lol, nice one! Must be a nice monkey to get off your back.I'm feeling a little ropey as I drank far too much last night but all in a good cause. I'll make a more substantial post later I think...John. Read more:Champagne
Back In The Saddle 2007-06-01 11:44:00 It's been a good day so far with just the one slip up. I'm up 11.5% with a couple of lays to go this evening so hopefully it can be a very good day. I felt pretty relaxed at the start of the day, I think the worst thing to of done would of been to put pressure on myself and expect a good day to recoup losses. I've tried extremely hard to just forget Wednesday and so far so good.I did originally post over at WBX that I intended to lay Vitznau but I had an extra 15 minutes looking at the race and saw it as a massive danger on form. I'm glad I left well alone as he won nicely.So June has started nicely and I want to go onwards from here and see no reason why I can't. I was very glad to see Henry Cecil land the Oaks, excellent trainer and personality, I hope he can battle through his cancer.John. Read more:Saddle
You Silly Bastard 2007-06-07 11:18:00 I don't think I've ever had such a frustrating day since I've started doing this for a living. On one hand I'm exceptionally happy I've had some very short, fancied lays beat but on the other I'm annoyed and cross about frittering away so much percentage on place bets. 15.3% is what I've lost in doing place/win bets. I'm 4.7% down for the afternoon so as you can well see, I'd be up a very useful 10.6%. I can't help but be annoyed. I guess it all comes down to discipline again doesn't it? I'm a layer, not a backer and I should stick to what I do best. This has been a big wake up call seeing a loss when it should infact be profit.But as I said, the lays are still going great guns, odds shots, 13/8 shots getting beat etc. The average selection's price is definitely getting lower.Yet again I'm ranting about discipline and so far doing a pretty poor job of backing up my words. Well I'm going into Ninja mode from now and being like a Buddest Monk on a mission....Sandown watch Read more:Silly
What A Day... 2007-06-06 10:31:00 Well, well, well. What a difference a day makes. I've had a great bit of banter and chat on WBX aswell as posting my lays and backs. I'm currently up 21% with one selection to go this afternoon, I'm pretty sure I'm going to take this evening off as I don't want to start making silly mistakes after spending some solid time on this afternoon's racing.There's been quite a few races where there at least 2/3 short priced horses in the one race which in my opinion makes it easier to find horses to get beat. Obviously only one horse can win (ok it could dead heat) but generally speaking if there are 2 horses beneath 2/1 then it's an ideal opportunity to pick a short priced loser.I was emailing Sportslive today as I thought Will had made a very dubvious NAP selection in a maiden race with so many unexposed runners. I personally could never NAP in a maiden let alone with so many unexposed horses. It seemed some emailers found it amusing I could question it and kept banging on about a wi
Costly Errors 2007-06-06 03:45:00 It was a very frustrating day yesterday with a loss of 6%. I did well to come away with that figure as for the 2nd time in a week, I layed three winners on the bounce. The cause of one of those winners was simple, basic and not needed. I've found the last couple of days, well week really some very elementary mistakes are slipping in and they are showing in terms of profit/ loss. It's not too dissimilar to Golf as when I was playing constantly, 7 days a week for 5/6 hrs a day, if I wasn't at the top of my game errors would sneak in and then problems occur as you are practicing bad habits. The way to break this cycle is to take a step back and have a good think through.I had Sweet Gale as lay as it had a relatively poor speed figure in comparison to several other horses in the race, my mistake though was miss reading it's handicap mark. I had written down a rating 7lbs above its actual handicap mark and when translating adjusted weight speed ratings, that makes quite a difference.I' Read more:Errors
Discipline 2007-06-05 02:47:00 It wasn't the best of days with the racing with a loss of 5% and although I was annoyed with a few things, in the grand scheme of things a 5% loss isn't too bad for a losing day. And of course, I can't expect to win everyday as much as I'd like to lol.Hindsight is a wonderful thing but from now on I'm not going to be playing in 4 runner races. They've cost me far more than I've profited from them and I've generally had enough of them, I don't need to be playing in them and there plenty of other races for me to be getting on with. Out of all the lays yesterday, Lady Grace annoyed me the most and was an unnecessary loss of money. Discipline
really is the key to winning at horse racing in my opinion and just lately I've slipped into a few bad habits that need to be sorted sooner rather than later.Today is a new day and I'll be looking to bounce back and avoid those uber annoying races.John.
A Little Review.. 2007-06-10 06:38:00 I'm pretty much 6 months into doing racing full time and I thought I'd write a little about what I've learnt and how I'm finding it. Firstly, I'm really enjoying it and I'm glad I made the move from working at the Golf Club to doing racing. Life is unquestionably a lot simpler. I only have to answer to myself when mistakes happen.The system I use has also changed vastly to what it was when I first started in numerous ways. I take a very close look at trainer form and I think one of the biggest changes has been the price I'm laying horses at. On Saturday there was nothing above 5/1. Not only is this better in terms of gaining percentages but it also limits losses when they occur. I remember during the month of March where I had several 9/1, 10/1 winners. However, without doubt the biggest change has been my staking system. It is in my eyes the making of what I do. Whilst it is extremely aggressive and not suitable for a lot of people, I love it and the difference in terms of poin
Wow Wee... 2007-06-09 10:26:00 Last night didn't finish as I'd hoped and in hindsight I made an error. I layed Mickmacmagoole at 4.2 before leaving to go out for the evening. I came home to see it was gambled on and won very easily. It's been gambled on before and also won. It got me thinking why would an Irish trainer bring a horse to Haydock? I'm sure it wasn't for the scenery. Another lesson learnt.Today has been sensational, a true layers paradise with odds on, short priced favourites getting beat. I'm 25.8% up so far for the afternoon. I've managed to post every lay on WBX which was fun. I couldn't believe some of the prices of the favourites, they were just far too short. Alfie Flits wasn't sure to stay, Army Of Angels definitely needs softer ground and Gulf Express at odds on in a competitive handicap? lol, I don't think so.Saturdays are turning into my favourite day of the week! Edit: Well I'm now 31.8% up and I think that is plenty for today even though there is this evening to go. I'm absolutel
Baffled. 2007-06-08 11:08:00 I knew this afternoon's racing was pretty trap and poor but still disappointed to be down 4.6% for the afternoon. Manichor in the claimer at Brighton stood out as lay to me like a sore thumb, maiden after 13 starts, poor speed figure and poorly weighted in the weights. How wrong was I? The thing romped home. Some days this game completely baffles me.I only had the two lays last night, both very short and both lost which was a nice result and it enabled me to squeek into a profit of 1.2%!! Hoorah! Hassad was especially pleasing as Nick Millard proclaimed it as his biggest bet of the year. How you could price up Hassad as a 11/8 shot in that sort of handicap is beyond me.A similar story tonight with just two lays, Hugs Destiny and Mickmacgoole. Both seem far too short for what they've achieved and if Hugs Destiny wins over this trip I'll show my arse out of the window. Mandurah seems a steal for a place in the 8.50 with Ishetoo just too short to back and it should win doing cartwheels
How Many??? 2007-06-12 15:26:00 I'm tired, hot and annoyed. Not a good combination especially with having a freaking howler of a day. I'm still struggling with limiting myself to the lays I have written down during the morning. I only had 3 lays for this afternoon but somehow managed to lay another 4 horses! I really, really need to stop this otherwise it's gonna be game over for me, as making these sort of mistakes will lead to even more mistakes which I refuse to let happen. I've spent too much time and effort to blow it by not sticking to the plan. This evening went more according to plan although Torrens won in a photo which makes it four photo finishes in a row that I've lost. Surely some could of gone my way???I'm 19.5% down for the day in total and I can safely say I shouldn't be anywhere near that much but I am and I'll have to deal with it. Not sure what else to say really, I just hope I have a good day tomorrow and get back on track...John.
Rollarcoaster. 2007-06-11 15:03:00 Today has been nothing short of a rollarcoaster. Started terribly laying two winners on the bounce and I found myself 13% down just like that! I was pretty steaming at that point and if I was playing poker, I have no doubt I'd of gone on major tilt mode. However I took a deep breath and realised there were plenty of races to come and a good possibility of clawing back the losses.I was making very good inroads until the 8.15 at Pontefract where Expensive rallied in fine style to beat Mont Etoile. I thought it was a great race although it wasn't the result I wanted. Expensive was very short and it didn't do any major damage. I was 8% down at that point but then came Agravation with an excellent win and I had Veiled Applause for the place too. Brigadore rounded up a nice little comeback. I'm 1.5% up for the day but I feel like I've gone 10 rounds with Tyson...It was a good lesson learnt today, discipline and patience will come through. I'm glad I stuck with it and knuckled down. My
Very Quiet 2007-06-16 07:42:00 It's been a very quiet couple of days really and not a particularly good day yesterday with a 3.5% loss. I'm not too disappointed though as it was a very tough day to find losers I thought. I just think lately the favourites and second/ third favourites have appeared very solid. That may seem quite an obvious statement but as I lay mainly any of the front 3 in the market, I'm always looking for false/ weak favourites, but just the last few days I've found it tough to find an edge. Now the ground has turned hopefully there might be a few falsely priced horses and I've got a few lays today that I think are very solid. The last few Saturdays have been very impressive and I'll be looking to continue the sequence.At least I've been patient and not forcing things with the racing tough going and I'm pleased on that front. My Tiger Woods lay is kind of in the balance, I didn't take the 7.0 to back on Thursday and I'm kind of wishing I had, especially when I saw he was trading at 3.5 Read more:Quiet
Solid Day. 2007-06-14 10:43:00 I feel decidely rough but at least it's been a good day with the racing. Just over 10% made today which I felt was pretty good considering there were so many maidens and unexposed 3 yr old handicaps. The best result came with Treat losing. It was a big stats lay and they've been very successful lately. It also brought a smile to my face than Jamie Spencer was onboard. Nothing quite like getting a Jamie Spencer odds on shot beat. Most likely the worst champion jockey in recent times. I just hope Seb can hold onto his lead and a treble today will have done his chances no harm.I've also got a good trade in the offing hopefully with Tiger Woods. I layed him at 4.7 before he teed off and so far he's at 7.0 and 5 shots off the lead. I'll see how he finishes today but I don't think it's going to be better than 2 over. I'm amazed to hear Phil Mickleson is going to go onto the course without hitting his driver as he has a damaged wrist. I really can't see Phil being 100% and around Oak Read more:Solid
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