Owner: The Dream Lives URL:johnsdreamon.blogspot.com Join Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2007 12:39:48 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: A simple blog about a young guy trying to succeed at professional gambling. Site statistics:Click here
Something Different. 2007-03-17 14:40:00 Something a little different for a change, I made this little video last summer, cars are my other passion and there aren't many better feelings than being on the edge when you're driving a fast car on the limit. The video was done at Jebel Hafeet, a well known mountain in the UAE, some say it's the best drivers road in the world, it's 7 miles long with over 65 corners. I don't personally think it's the best road but it is a fantastic drive. I take my driving quite seriously and definitely want to get into some trackdays when I'm home at the end of the month. Hope some of you enjoy it.
Room Search Is On! 2007-03-19 19:50:00 Just a quickie. If anyone knows any decent flats, houses available in Exeter for rent I'd appreciate any help. It needs to have broadband and furnished is preferable. I've fired out a few emails on easyroomate and just waiting hear back from a few. Hmm, last minute organisation is not good, lol. Read more:Search
The Battle Goes On.. 2007-03-19 18:48:00 Not the best of days on the betting front. I lost 4.8 points on the day but in hindsight it should have been a lot less. One horse just fell into my trainer stats and Twiston-Davies had had two winners and a 2nd in his last 3 runners which accounted for his last 14 days worth of points. (I use a point’s scale for 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the last 14 days). The risk wasn't worth the reward and it duly won at 5.6 (9/2). If it's touch and go and I really can't decide then it should have been a definite no bet.Well after me spouting off last night that I was within touching distance, today became touching distance with binoculars. I'm not at all worried, I've had quite a run the last few days and a losing day could have been expected, just a little frustrated that I slipped up. I'll refocus my efforts tomorrow and battle on, which this month has certainly been.... very up and down.I was talking to a friend not long ago about starting banks and the best method to take. I think we both ag Read more:Battle
Touching Distance. 2007-03-18 21:11:00 Well I'm finally showing the form I was in during February and I'm pretty pleased and relieved really. I'm practically within touching distance of break even for the month after winning 6.8 points today. Now I just need to push on and get to work on making a profit for March. I think I'll look back on this month in the future and realise it was a valuable learning curve. I knew I was capable of having 20/30/40 point swings as I'd tracked the system for a while but actually experiencing it with money is a whole new matter. I may be getting ahead of myself as the month isn't over by a long way and I could just as easily endure another losing sequence but I'm confident that's behind me now and I can make a steady profit for March. On reflection I was definitely looking at the short term far too much and not thinking of the long run and staying positive. I'm quite an emotional person and at times I let them get the better of me but I'm learning fast hopefully.I sometimes think do
Rush Is On. 2007-03-20 18:41:00 I've had a bit of a manic day today, I've kind of left the old room searching a little late, lol. I've been beavering away emailing people and looking at quite a few ads for a few places to stay. I've managed to line up a few interviews when I get home. I assume I managed to scare one guy off though, lol. He asked for a little detail about me so I said I'm coming home to work from home and I'll be betting for a living. He called me nuts and kind of went cold shoulderish! I think I need to adjust my job title to.....??? Mother Hen is also barking her orders at what needs to be done before I left and the list is just getting longer and longer! A mixed day on the racing really, I won 1.5 points and it could of been less had I not missed the start of the 4.30 which meant I got a price IR. It was 1.0 less than the price before the off so I saved myself a point. I really, really need to concentrate more sometimes, I was playing with the cats and totally forgot I had a lay to do. It doe
Like a Yo Yo. 2007-03-22 19:31:00 It's been a mixed couple of days really, yesterday I lost 6.5 points and today I won 4.5 points. Up and down, up and down. It's giving me nausea I swear. Yesterday was a howler really, only had 6 selections and 3 won which is never a good thing. I did better today though and with two days coming up with a lot of racing, I'm sure if I keep my focus I can win a nice profit over tomorrow and the weekend. The reason I'm looking forward to it is that there are 2 flat meetings tomorrow and 3 on Saturday and as I've mentioned before the flat racing really is where I hope to make most of my profit in the year. I understand it a lot better, know 100x more horses, take more interest in the actual races and enjoy it more. Oh how I enjoyed Sportslive today, Millard managed to NAP an odds shot which duly got stuffed and also his other couple of bets did, all of this banging on Millard might lead some people to think I dislike the guy... well in truth I just find him an arrogant radio presenter
Persistance. 2007-03-25 00:20:00 Well what was looking like a disappointing Saturday actually turned into a good one eventually. I was all doom and gloom by 4.20 but finished off with quite a flourish. Wolverhampton was particularly pleasing. I managed to gain 5 points today and I am now again within touching distance of profit for March. Will I, Won't I???? Anyway just a quick update, I'll make a more substantial post tomorrow sometime, don't forget to set your clocks forward!John.
Horses equals Buses? 2007-03-23 20:11:00 Nicky Henderson's horses are a lot like a Bus. No winners for 32 runners and BANG 2 come in one day. He was of course always going to break his losing sequence but did he have to have 2 winners when I laid them? lol.I lost 1.5 points today and I'm lucky to of gotten off that lightly really. I managed to lay 2 horses IR for 3% when before the off they were both in the 1.8% bracket. I just really cannot get going this month, it's literally one step forward, 2 steps backward. But I do still have 8 days to sort it out and with 5 meetings tomorrow there should be plenty of selections to get stuck into.The basis of my system is speed figures and adjusted speed figures. I've noticed a little trend that quite a few of my winners have come from horses that are trying a new trip. King After, Cerebus, Convinial Spirit, Petrosian to name a few. I've looked at my ratings and it's trying to predict a figure for the new distance. It's obviously not predicting them too well, lol. I'm going to Read more:Horses
, Buses
Hectic Times. 2007-03-26 19:44:00 I've had a pretty hectic couple of days really, it's definitely dawning on me that I'm leaving Dubai in 4 days and I've done sod all, lol. Yesterday was pretty frustrating with the racing as soon as I was up I'd have a winner. My S/R has really dropped this month, around 78% this month which isn't good. I think I've highlighted a few things though and hopefully I can build on them. Today was better and I gained 3.5 points. Still had a few winners but managed to get a good early price about them as they drifted alarmingly which before the off I thought was great as generally speaking, drifters don't go onto win. It had Nick Millard working in overtime though saying never take a notice of drifters! Argh the man drives me nutty and as for the young Nick, where to start! He knows cock all about racing and needs shooting.The blog counter has stopped working or so I hope as it's been on the same number for 2 days or it could just be people are bored of this blog which wouldn't surp Read more:Hectic
, Times
Break Even. 2007-03-28 21:19:00 An okay day with the racing, just over 0.5 points profit which took me back into profit for the month! It's only taken 28 days! lol. Tomorrow and Saturday are going to be only days left for March as Friday will be spent travelling and I'll be too busy to get any racing done although I might leave a few selections with my Dad to do for me. I've recently got into a nice rhythm for racing and its shame I'll have to break it on Friday. I've found by just doing the bets and checking back later is a lot less stressful. Although there is something addictive and heart pounding about watching IR prices. I'll be a lot happier when I can actually see the racing.I seriously need to start packing tomorrow and organise what I need and do not need. I've a lot of crap to sort through. I'm going to miss a lot of things about Dubai but I'm trying to remember I'm leaving for the right reasons and I'll be back for plenty of holidays. I'm feeling pretty anxious about what lies ahead and althoug Read more:Break
Ticking along. 2007-03-27 18:51:00 Although I won just over 2 points today, I couldn't help but feel a little frustrated and feeling what could of been. I'm considering including stopping at a certain percentage. Although I've said previously I'm not for stopping at a target, but recently during a tough month stopping at a % would of helped. It might just be down to a poor month and maybe during a winning month stopping wouldn't be ideal. I need to re do some figures and see.Oh. My. God. Could Nick Millard be any further up his own arse? Classic comment of the day '' The market was wrong, I was right.'' You big headed twat. You seemed to go very quiet when your bets lost! Absolute first class chump he annoys me beyond belief. I should rename this blog.I've been busy arranging some houses to see too and things are looking good on that front and fingers crossed I can get settled in nicely. The first couple of weeks are going to be important and I can't wait to see how they turn out. Read more:along
England Bound.. 2007-03-29 18:02:00 Well my last evening in Dubai has arrived! I was planning on catching a few rays to actually look like I've lived in Dubai for 2 and a bit years but there has been a massive thunderstorm today, lol.A nice and steady 2.5 points profit today and it was nice to end on a winning day. I'm really looking forward to the flat season now and seeing some very good horses. I checked in online which was pretty cool. Well not a lot else to say really, I've thought of a good post which I'll crack on with when I've settled in a little bit.I've got to go and deal with a very upset mother hen now, not looking forward to it! England
here I come!! Read more:Bound
Freezing. 2007-03-31 16:47:00 Well I'm now in the UK and I can safely say it's freezing!!!!!! The flight went okay, slightly delayed due to being in a holding pattern above Heahtrow but apart from that, as good as a flight can go really. I'm absolutely wiped out though, been up for 35 hrs now without sleep so going to get some rest asap.I left some bets with my dad to do whilst I was flying and I had a nice 3 points profit on the day. I've had 2 bets so far today and both have lost so hopefully without any last minute hiccups I'll have a profitable March!! I'll make a more interesting post later this weekend so bare with me. Read more:Freezing
Spinning Around.. 2007-04-02 16:52:00 Whoa! Literally haven't had a minute to think since I've been home, didn't even get a chance to look at any racing yesterday but in a way it was nice to have a day off. I'm busy with today's racing though and it's good to be back in the saddle. I still haven't properly looked at March's results yet but I'll sort through it all tonight I think.I'm extremely pleased to of got through March, it was so up and down, I haven't seen a month like it. I know I managed a profit which is the main thing but after February's success it was so bizarre to experience such a downturn. I've cut a few things in the system which results in a few less bets but also more successful. One important thing to me is price. I've got a feeling when I look at the different price brackets (3%, 1.8% and 1.2%) I'll find 1.2% lays were not profitable hence why I'm no longer laying above 7.5 (6.5/1). I think this can certainly improve results.Anyway, I'll update later with the results and analysis for M
Da Ja Vu. 2007-04-05 12:55:00 Sorry I've not updated in a while, still absolutely crazy busy. It seems I'm re-living March's nightmare too. Monday finished great, 6 points up and I'm thinking lovely jubly. Tuesday I lost 5 points and I wasn't too disappointed about it as I thought it was an extremely tough day and in hindsight I should of left well alone.As for Wednesday, I had a day all gamblers fear most. Complete disaster doesn't really cover it. 10 points down and leaving the bank battered and bruised and some 20% less.I've been looking and analysing it and I can see a few things but nothing out of the ordinary and I'm struggling to understand where it all went wrong. I had a very similar day last month and then things picked up and I'm just hoping they can this time around. Perhaps it's the transistion from A.W to Turf as all my winners came on the turf and I had a couple of losers at Lingfield. I'm not one to make excuses so I'm just going to have to sit tight and see how things play out. I'm off
Back On Track 2007-04-07 18:21:00 I've had a mini recovery since I last posted which has been much appreciated and needed. I did my 3 bets before leaving for Nottingham and all 3 lost and as 2 of them were in the 3% bracket I was able to recover 7.8% of my bank on Thursday. I spent most of Friday driving back and as there wasn't any racing I had a chance to think things through a little. I'll explain in a little bit....I only had the one bet today, a little disappointed there wasn't more flat racing but Bank Holiday Monday sees things really kick off I guess. 3% was gained today so I've managed to pull back over half the loss already.I've been chatting to my Dad who has come up with a good idea about stop losses or a 'lock out'. A brief example would be.... my first bet wins at 7/2 so I'm down 3.5 points, my next 3 lose bringing me back to level for the day. My final bet would just scrape me into profit or put me back to where I was after the first bet, a loss. His point being I shouldn't be doing the last be Read more:Track
Steady Eddy, 2007-04-09 01:09:00 Woah had a hangover from hell today, don't think I've felt so rough in a long, long time!Took it very easy with racing, Musselbrough was a poor card for me with 3 maidens and several wide open handicaps with 5/1 the field etc. As I don't bet in maidens usually it certainly limits my choice of lays. I managed to find one though and Global Strategy lost and 1.8% was gained. I've had a brief look at tomorrow's cards and Warwick looks a disaster for me with 3 maidens and the rest massively open handicaps with big forecasted odds. Hopefully I'll be able to find a few losers though.I'm finally starting to settle down a bit in England but shocked at how expensive everything is, I knew Dubai was cheap but I can't stop converting different things, lol. A bottle of water is a piss take here! Anyway, nothing else too exciting to report so I'll wrap it up here, I'll add a few more interesting posts tomorrow.
Nothing New. 2007-04-11 17:44:00 I gave racing a swerve yesterday, far too many maidens and massively competitive handicaps. I did manage a little win bet but didn't come off but it was more for interest than anything else.Today's been a better day with 2 lays and both losing and I gained 4.8% of the bank. I'm still showing a loss for April but I'm really not too worried or concerned as it's been a very slow month so far, the amount of flat racing just hasn't been substantial enough so far, I've forgotten how slow the start to the flat racing is.I've been researching and tracking a speed rating site which has produced some remarkable results and I've now started to correlate my speed figures with this particular websites as there seems to be an edge had. I think I've built up coming home so much it's almost an anticlimax so far with such little racing. I'm enjoying being home though. Sorry it's been a boring read lately, I'll definitely try and post something a little more interesting soon.John. Read more:Nothing
Grass isn't Greener? 2007-04-16 16:39:00 I've had a good few days lately, nothing spectatular, just constant steady profit. I've only been averaging 3 lays a day and I've been in good form. Racing is still pretty quiet but evening racing starts on Friday which is a good sign. The Grand National was a great race, shame about the start, the starter for sure needs a word! Couldn't find the winner but looking back the winner fitted into the stats nicely, not sure why I didn't see it, lol.I've been doing a lot of thinking lately about where I want to be and I think it's Dubai. I like being in the UK but there's something missing and I can't pinpoint it. Perhaps I'll enjoy the UK more when I'm more settled and financially happy. I can't touch my racing bank as I'm trying to build it up, I knew this all before I came but still something doesn't feel right. I think come June I'll be back in Dubai and reassess things from there. It's funny sometimes when you think things will be miles better when they actually aren't. Read more:Greener
Still Here 2007-04-20 12:57:00 I've found myself pretty busy with other things the last few days, probably due to the racing being pretty insignificant to me. Still a lot of maidens and progressive 3 year olds. My good run came to an end on Wednesday, lost 10% of my bank but after a good run I'm not too fussed really. What did annoy me was the little cretin that calls himself Teabaghead on WBX. For a starter, great name. He tried to make out I didn't get matched at 5.9 on Pieterson when only 1,030 had been matched, my liability on the race was 1,014. This proves how dense the donut is. I was asking to win 207 so out of the 515 matched for back and lay, it could easily happen. I actually was matched at several prices and my avg came out to 5.9. I posted this and he claimed it to be fake, lol. The guy loves himself and I'd die for the opportunity to meet him and tell him a few home truths.Anyway, enough ranting about little keyboard warriors. I've bought myself a few treats for my car when I go back and can't wa
Cha Ching. 2007-04-28 03:22:00 I had a pretty sweet day today with the bank growing by over 17% or in terms of points just over 8 points. It's getting to the stage where stakes are getting reasonably high and the real beauty of the staking system shines through. A winning spell is really maximised and the bank can grow rapidly. It kicked off with me backing Red Rocks and laying Mountain High in the same race and Another Genepi winning at a nice price at Wolverhampton. I was most pleased though with the lay of Shy Glance who was a shade of odds on. I had him no more than a 5/2 shot and he got beat fairly convincingly. If anyone wants to track my progress, the link is here.I feel as if I've got into a good rhythm with things and it definitely appears to be paying off. I've always thought having a good routine is a good way to go about being a successful punter.A very busy day tomorrow and I'm confident my winning form can continue, there are a lot of horses running at poor odds given what they have achieved. I sai Read more:Ching
Steady She Goes.. 2007-04-27 03:35:00 I had another solid day today, gaining just over 5.5% of my bank. If that continues I'll be more than pleased. I kept my word and I've started posting my lays over at WBX, I had 6 today and had 5 1/2 right, lol. Sparkling Eyes dead heated for first at Yarmouth. I'm happy though as he looked to be leading until right on the line.I've been tweaking a few filters on my system and it seems to proving good dividends, I know I've rambled on a lot about speed but it is to me one of the biggest factors in racing, if a horse isn't quick enough it can't win. And that's before you start looking at trainer form etc.I'm looking forward to some good racing tomorrow, and I'm in a generally happier state of mind than I have been of late really. Things have settled down nicely and I'm enjoying my time here instead of wishing I was elsewhere. I'll be back in Dubai soon enough so no point wishing my time away!I've updated my links finally, sorry it took so long. I'm erming and arghing about
Right.. 2007-04-26 01:15:00 Right, I've been very slack lately with updating this blog and decided to sort it out! I found it both enjoyable and theraputic writing about my daily racing in February and March so I'm going to get back on board for this month.I've had a reasonably good week, things are picking up slowly and I'm making quiet progress. I'm 25 points up for April so far, I added 4 of those points today. I've really learnt the lesson about being patient and not forcing things, in previous times I'd of definitely been chomping at the bit to do bets. Tomorrow looks another good day to get stuck into, Southwell looks a gem. I'm going to re-start my lays thread on WBX but this time, no I did so and so and aftertiming, just post up the lays and record the results. There probably will be a few that I won't get to post but for the threads sake I'll leave them out and just be content with that.I'm moving house tomorrow sometime but I'll find time to post a thread up. I've got a couple of links to a Read more:Right
Discipline. 2007-04-30 13:21:00 Sunday was a little disappointing overall but I still gained 3.75% of my bank. For some reason I decided to try and get matched IR on Rio Taffeta in the 2.10 at Brighton, it was available at 7.2 when I decided this. I'm not really sure why I thought I'd go IR as I was confident the horse wouldn't be in the first 2 let alone win. I'll put it down to a brain lapse, lol. I also added two backs which I hadn't originally had and they didn't do anything. A sign of poor discipline really, I should of stuck with my original selections and be happy. I frittered 4.8% away by doing these mistakes.But at least I made a profit and so far I've had a fantastic week or so, my lays are really going strong again which I'm very pleased with. I said I'd get a race analysis up yesterday but got sidetracked with moving my things to my new house so I'll definitely sort it out today as I've got plenty of time.Back soon.John. Read more:Discipline
Going Strong 2007-04-29 13:35:00 Saturday was another good day for me gaining just over 9% of my bank, in the last three days it's grown by over 30% which I'm very pleased with. One of my lays was Choristar who unfortunately broke down which I never like seeing and I take no joy in winning that way. Seeing a horse break down always reminds me of the brutal nature of horseracing and how much I really want to setup a charity for injured racehorses in due course.I see Pricewise finally tipped up a winner,a very nice price winner too but was there really any need for the Racingpost to call him 'Peerless Pricewise'? lol. He's still down for the season in terms of points which I think is the most important thing. I don't dislike the guy, he has an extremely tough job having to analyse the hardest races but the way the Racingpost bill him up is nonsense, he clearly isn't the world's best tipster. Rant over.I'm nearly done with a little post about how I analyse a race so I should get that up later today. I hope it's Read more:Going
, Strong
Concentration... 2007-05-03 12:49:00 Yesterday was a struggle really, ended up the day losing 4.5%, nothing significant but just annoying really. I should of left Rare Coincidence alone as it was a very weak race but I guess I had the blinkers on. It's happened a couple of times lately, a pure lack of concentration. I'm at the computer all day today though and I've given it my 110% attention. Hopefully I can bounce back today as there appears to be a few shorties that are no value.Anyway, nothing else exciting to report so I'll end it here and report back later with a more positive post!John. Read more:Concentration
April Round Up ... 2007-05-01 22:42:00 I've been mad busy the last two days when I had planned a quiet couple of days, lol. Always seems to happen that way. Monday wasn't exactly my best day ever, I saw 22% of my bank disappear. What cost me most was simply the lack of any winning backs, I had a couple of 2nds but not good enough really. I also had far too many, I've rejigged a few things to cut down the amount as there really was far too many. I lost just over 9% on lays but that didn't bother me too much, out of 14 lays.... 6 won and I did well to escape with just a 9% loss. There always seems to be at least one day each month with a lot of winning lays, I can't tell when it will be but sure enough it happened again. It's definitely to do with my average averaging out after a good run I feel.Today was a lot better winning over 12%(6 points). The lays settled back to normal with only one winning lay out of 8 selections and in hindsight I shouldn't of layed Owed even though his speed figure was relatively weak compar Read more:April
Bish Bash Bosh. 2007-05-03 18:18:00 Saaaweeeeet. Absolutely killed it today, gaining 20.80% of my bank. I've still got a couple of lays to go but I've decided to let them go as risking the profit at this stage isn't the right move. I have in the past said to follow it right through but when is enough enough? To gain a 1/5th of my bank is more than acceptable. I'm off out to get some fresh air and to relax a little as I've been beavering away all morning and afternoon.If only all days were this simple eh?!
Easy come, easy go. 2007-05-07 14:46:00 Why is it whenever you come to an end of a good run it is always followed by a howler? The weekend was very disappointing. I lost close to 20% over the weekend, giving back all of Thursday's efforts. I mentioned I finished early on Thursday because I didn't want to risk the profit. ERROR!! lol. I'd gained an extra 8%. But maybe on another day it would of gone my way.I may be trying to find excuses for this weekend's poor showing but I honestly think I rushed things and really wasn't concentrating hard enough. I'm confusing myself sometimes with speed ratings and comparing them to the website I've found to be very useful. For example I was looking to lay Brigadore yesterday as I really thought it was poor value but it had the best speed figure on one site and it was 3rd on my ratings. I left it alone but it duly lost. I did however have a small back on the winner. It was nice to see some excellent racing over the weekend though but the Teofilo situation stinks, the horse drifted
Rolling Forward.. 2007-05-10 23:22:00 It was a reasonably solid day today gaining just over 4.1% of my bank. Princess Ella won by a short head to cost me a clean sweep but I was due a winner sometime soon. It was a close photo but I've had a few go my way over the last few weeks so I can expect one to against me from time to time. I was dead set on Goodbye Mr. Bond winning and he duly obliged at what I thought was a good price, I also layed Street Warrior in the same race so that was by far my best result of the day.I've had some kind comments about my current situation which is much appreciated on all fronts, I'm trying my best to stay focused but as is always the case, the mind wonders when you least want it to. The biggest adjustment is not having the person to talk to or look forward to seeing. I'm still speaking with her but it's never the same is it?It's not far off the middle of the year and I'm looking forward to seeing and analysing my results thus far. Obviously March was very slow and I did well to even b Read more:Rolling
, Forward
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