Owner: STOCK MARKET TECHNICALS URL:http://niftywhatcanhappen.blogspot.com Join Date: Sat, 12 Apr 2008 09:24:36 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: Comparsion of World Stock Markets, How Dow Jones not underperforming Emerging Markets. Intraday Trading Range for Indian Nifty and Nifty Options Site statistics:Click here
Are World Stock Markets Manipulated 2008-04-12 08:11:00 I am pointing out some facts then you decide the answer yourselfThe Bull run in most of the Equity Markets
started in the 2nd quarter of 2003, now each of the markets have gone major upswings or downswings almost altogether lets see how1) First my very own BSE SensexSensex traded at 2924 on 25th April 2003, now it formed first major top at 6194 on 14th January 2004, and this top was almost equivalent to its 2000 top, now after correction the bottom was at 4505 on 17th May 2004, the breaking above the previous top was achieved on 30th November 2004. The sensex consolidated in a range of 6000 – 7000 from December 2004 to June 2005. Now the sensex went up to 8800 in Oct 2005 wherein it corrected up to 8000 in Oct 2005 itself. A big upward movement took the sensex towards 12676 in May 2 Read more:World
, Stock
, Stock Markets
Players want Indices to stay range bound before results 2008-04-08 23:21:00 The way we are trading for last 8 – 10 days it seems the Market players are getting skeptical as and when nifty reaches 4800 and above and every gap up opening is used as profit booking as fear of inflation, what the earning would be given the global slowdown, drop in IIP numbers, there seems to be fear that would the earning slow down significantly that the valuations would look overstretched. But on the other hand as and when the Nifty reaches 4620 the optimism takes over the reason could be the global markets are not breaking and most are even trading near about there monthly highs.The best case scenario now would be to sell options rather than buy them, so as and when the nifty is close to 4600 level 4600 put could be sold but to protect yourself from any adverse move 4400 put could Read more:Players
, results
Not much to write about 2008-04-06 23:20:00 The Market might trade in a tight range with lots of volatility, better not to trade as of today.
Dow Jones Not Underperforming Emerging Markets 2008-04-06 06:53:00 Let’s First Have a Look at Indian SensexSensex touched the Figure of 1000 in July 1990In July 1990 17.4 Indian Rupees Could Buy 1 DollarNow Suppose an US investor wants to buy 1 Sensex in 1990 he could buy 1 Sensex for 57.47 DollarsNow Suppose He sells that 1 Sensex in 2008 at the Sensex top of 21206 and 39.2 Indian Rupees able to buy 1 dollar, he would get 541 DollarsNow Lets have a look at Dow Jones
When Sensex touched a figure of 1000, Dow Jones was trading at around 3000Now Suppose Indian Investor wants to buy 1 Dow Jones then he would require 52200 Rupees for the same.Now if the Dow Jones is sold in 2008 at an all time high until now of 14297 when 39.2 Rupees can buy 1 Dollar, his returns are 560442So in the Long term both the Indexes have given similar returns with the only differen Read more:Markets
Monday Could be big day 2008-04-04 04:27:00 Right Now at 2.58 pm as I am writing just 32 minutes from Market closing 4640, The Nifty might closein at 4620 and 4620 was the big support the bulls were taking uptil now. Today Friday is a important day for US market trading as US Jobs figures are going to be released today in the evening by 6pm India time. Now if the Jobs figures show bad news the US markets might drop sharply. Asian Markets (should I say just hangseng) which have not gone though bad patches inspite of US markets having bad days of lately can react by opening Gap down on monday which can cause a bad opening for us on Monday
. Lots of 4500 puts have been written and the premium too is sufficeintly down compared to March series, hence 4600 put could be bought at near about 140, but since tommorow i.e Monday could be make
Would the Market sustain Rally? 2008-04-01 23:09:00 Apologies for not writing for last two days, due to personal problems could not write for last two days. A Gap up opening of 4910 on the Nifty is probably on cards, a mild correction towards 4880 would be the place to go long, and worst case scenario can be 4860 on the Nifty. If the Nifty drops below 4750 it might not go past 4910 as of today. Way the Asian Market
s are panning today might not be the day to use every bounce to sell. For Options I think 5000 Nifty Call could be bought in a range of 120 – 140 target could be 160 – 180 if Nifty moves past 4920. Read more:sustain
, Rally
Less Volatility with Upward Direction 2008-03-27 23:20:00 In spite of Dow Jones closing in the negative territory with near about 1% down none of the Asian Markets have intraday lows of even 1% that speaks strength. Nifty should open gap up at 4880 and then try to move towards 4920, I think it might even break 4920 and try to show the figure of 4980. Nifty 5000 Call could be bought in the range of 125 - 135 for a target of 180 and if 180 is substantially broken then 220 stop loss could be placed at 110.Now coming to Nifty options strategies for April, as I had said in my earlier post that Nifty would be heading towards 5200 or 4200 with the probability of 5200 significantly more than 4200, Nifty is moving towards 5200. As of yesterday when Nifty was at near about 4800 with both be the targets being substantially far, buying Nifty Put and Call Opt Read more:Volatility
, Direction
Volatility Yet Again 2008-03-26 23:18:00 The Nifty Index might just open gap down towards 4800 and then might try to get into positive territory, once it has spend some time in positive territory, volatility might show it effects and drag it in the negative. As for closing I am still maintaining that 4740 or 4780 might be the closing, but since short term view is that Nifty should head towards 5200 a closing of 4740 might be just ignored leaving us with 4780, Now Considering 4780 to be closing Nifty 4900 Put Option could be bought at around 90, if the Market behaves exactly as said before then at around 75.Now For the Next Month series I think 5200 or 4200 might be achieved in this month (high probability of 5200) so Nifty Out of Money Calls along with equally priced Nifty Put Option could be bought and then both could be sold on Read more:Volatility
, Again
Made it wrong 2008-03-26 02:47:00 Ok I got it wrong and I accept that, but now as said in the earlier post that Nifty could target 4980 by thursday closing if the Nifty doesnt loose big view is being changed to Nifty Targeting the close of 4750 - 4780 (becuase nifty is loosing big). It was difficult to digest the change but you have to move around the market and not the other way round.
Has Intraday bottom formed 2008-03-26 00:52:00 Well Today’s Bottom maybe behind us, But are we going to build a rally or the market would in a trading range is the question now. It would be better to buy dips and sell rallies of 20 -30 points. If 4720 is broken in a hurry (within an hour from here) then it might rally towards 4980. Read more:Intraday
No One Side Affair Expect Volatility 2008-03-25 23:12:00 Today is not going not be as bullish as yesterday but it may not be bearish either, A Gap up opening could drive the Nifty up towards 4920 but it would not be one sided bullish as yesterday, volatility would be the theme today. So any big rises of 30 -40 points could be used to sell while the drops could be used to buy. Trade hourly, if any hour as given big rallies sell expecting dips but don’t trade for big shots a small 0.5% profit on any side could be used to exit.Now Coming to F&O, I expect Nifty to close at 4980 this F&O closing unless it drops big today so Options could be bought with that target in Mind. Nifty 4800 Call could target 160 if bought near about 120 – 130.Would try to update at 10.30 and 11.30 Read more:Volatility
, Affair
, Expect
Going Long is good for today 2008-03-24 23:11:00 Should the Gap Up opening sustain and even add in more gains as the day progresses as of today the answer could be yes.Yes the Nifty might just open at 4720 and head towards 4820. Intraday Corrections to the major intraday trend that most likely would be bullish would occur but that should be taken as an opportunity to go long.Nifty 4600 Call yet again could be bought in the range of 128 – 136 (near about) and target could be 180 and if still bullish 220. Read more:Going
What Lies Ahead Today 2008-03-23 23:18:00 Is decoupling going to move the other way roundBulls must be remembering the good old days when on any given day theUS Markets would close down by a big negative, next day Emerging Markets too would open gap down but fill in the gap by the time market closes and even post some gains minting in gains for the bulls who bought in at any point of the day, now the table seems to be turned in favour of the bears, US markets post handsome gains, Next day Emerging Markets (in Asia) Open Gap up but by the time market closes all the gains are given up and the bears who shorted the Market at any point of the day gain handsomely. Now that the US Dow Jones has closed on Thursday with 262 points gains can the Indian Markets open Gap up and maintain the gains, as of now it quite difficult to t Read more:Today
Dow Jones Industrials 1929 Pattern 2008-03-22 09:15:00 There are some patterns which almost all Major World Indices have followed in Bull Market has well as Bear Market, since my opinion is we are in a bear market lets elaborate on the patterns in Bear Market.Pattern
of US Dow Jones
Industrial Average in the Biggest Bear Market ever, the era of Great Dep 1929 -The Dow Jones topped out at 386 in Sep 1929, it is said that this was an era when everybody believed that markets are made to rise forever, be in the green always, never drop and go in the red. The bottom was at 41 in Jul 1932 breakdown of more than 80% in 3 yrs.Now let’s look at the big downfalls, rallies and consolidation phases that happened in this bear marketThe Dow Jones fell from 386 in Sep 1929 to 320 in Oct 1929 app 16.6% from the top which everyone might have thought is a cor
Options Strategy 2008-03-18 23:14:00 Options Strategy
for 19th March 2008Nifty is likely to gap up at 4720 but would it able to hold up there as to be seen,Going by the situation right now I opine that post gap up opening it would correct to 4670 and would not break down to give up all the gap as of today.a) Nifty 4600 Call could be bought at 120 -130 range for a Target of 180. Stop loss could be placed at 110, ideally what one can do is if it drops below 120 (by any chance) sell off and buy at any rise above 120.b) Nifty 4600 put could be traded in the range of 60 – 80, stop loss could be placed at drop below 60 and any rise above 90 (by any chance) could lead to 120.Now Options Strategy for Short – term with minimal losses and minimal profit but high probability of Profita) Nifty 4600 March Put Could be sold at 60 -70 a Read more:Options
Can Sensex Compared to Hangseng 2008-03-06 02:33:00 Sensex topped out at 21207 on Jan 10 2008 (uptil now top) and then bottomed out at 15332 (the recent low from the crash), now to make some money I am just trying to solve the mystery of what lies ahead for that purpose I am using history of other Major World Indices and drawing comparisons with the SensexSo lets start the JourneyIn this post lets have a look at Hangseng (sorry I am not posting any images as of now due to some problems)Hangseng reached a major top of 3949 in Sep 1987 then crashed to a low of 1894 in Dec 1987 app one can say 50% correction, after 6 years in Jan 1994 it made a new top at 12599 in Jan 1994 the new top was app 3 times the previous top of 1987, now it again broke down to a level of 6890 in Jan 1995 app 45% correction. Then in Aug 1997 it again went upto 16802 an
How would the Dow Jones Close today? 2008-04-15 08:24:00 Two Major Economic data were released in the US today1) Producer Price Index (PPI) The PPI increased by 1.1% while the expectation was for an increase of mere 0.4%, while the core PPI which excludes volatile food and energy was up 0.2% and was as expected, but since the FED had said at its last meeting that ‘risk of downturn of economy is bigger while inflation although not showing signs of cooling down is likely to moderate over a period of time’ hence this is likely to be ignored by the Market participants over there.2) Empire State Index The Empire State Index put in a reading of + 0.6 from -22.2 in March, readings over 0 indicate growth while that below 0 indicate contraction. The Expectation was for -17 so it is a hefty increase beyond expectation. This data is Read more:Close
Will Markets Break the Range? 2008-04-14 23:11:00 As I had said in my earlier post -want-indices-to-stay-range.html The Nifty could not break 4800 and gave the opportunity to sell 4800 calls while hedging was done with 5000 call. But now one thing has changed in the global scenario, General Electric (the most conservative company while giving earnings guidance) results declared on Friday were a big disappointment, they could not even achieve what they had predicted and what had seen said was always in the pocket. Now most of the Asian markets reacted by breaking down by 2-4% on Monday, since our very own market was closed on Monday we were left out. So as I had said in my post that every fall towards 4620 is supported by the optimism that most markets are trading at there monthly highs, now that optimism might be broken down because some Read more:Markets
, Break
, Range
Real Reason for Crude Spike 2008-06-27 06:28:00 The real reason for the spike in crude is 'FED Printing press which is printing dollars' since there are more number of dollars printed hence a drop in value of a dollar which makes the asset denominated in dollars cheaper. And in turn to maintain the real value of the asset (in demand) denominated in dollars the asset price moves up. Since Crude
was considerably less priced , yah because while th Read more:Reason
, Spike
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