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Seeking safety? Not.
2007-03-15 20:54:00
One of the great stock market cliches- one of Jim Cramer's favorites- holds that smart money moves toward safe, defensive stocks during jittery times. Personally, I would have thought February 27th through today might qualify as jittery times. That said, there is nothing safer or more defensive than JNJ and PG and yet their charts are ugly. Behold the weekly chart of JNJ and the daily chart of PG:Now that I look at it more closely, PG might be exhibiting a nice little trend reversal right in front of our eyes. I may have to keep an eye on that one. I've actually had pretty good luck over the years buying the world's most boring stocks- like PG for instance- after they've been thoroughly abused for weeks or months. JNJ is one I will watch as well, but it hasn't yet exhibited any evidence that it is done falling. For those of you keeping score at home, JNJ is down 25 of the past 29 trading days. Now that's ugly.
Read more: Seeking

A better day except for those bloody stop losses...
2007-03-15 03:12:00
I made money today and that is always a good thing. Being a glass-is-half-empty kind of guy, however, has me preoccupied this evening with my newfound love of stop loss orders. Stop loss orders were working well for me as long as the market was going up more than it was going down. But now that the market is acting choppy I feel like I'm buying stocks purely to watch them get stopped out a few days or weeks later. And I don't like that at all.The stop loss issue for me is closely tied to the question of what type of trader I am. And, frankly, I'm still not sure what the answer is. I'm definitely not a long term buy and hold guy and I'm definitely not a full time day trader- not yet anyway. What this implies is that I am somewhere between a swing trader and short term trader, but that's a pretty wide range. I've been entering trades with the intention of setting a stop- which I do religiously- and then owning them as long as they keep rising. In theory this plan involves raising
Read more: better , bloody , better day

Portfolio as of 3/16/07
2007-03-17 02:36:00
I bought one new stock today, MDRX, at $26.05. I found this one on stockfetcher in one of my many attempts to find stocks that have bounced after fairly extended declines. We'll see how it does. I'll write more sometime this weekend about my plans to utilize stockfetcher more in my short term trades going forward. It was another uninspiring week for my blog portfolio with a return of -0.45%. It's small consolation but I did beat the NAZ (-0.76%), DJIA (-1.6%), and the S&P 500 (-1.36%) on the week. This portfolio now stands at an uninspiring +0.44% on the year versus YTD returns of -2.17%, -3.41%, and -2.67% for the NAZ, DJIA, and S&P 500, respectively. Again, I'm not thrilled with my returns but at least I'm beating the averages.I'm now sitting on a full stable of 12 stocks and no cash. Of the twelve positions, AAPL and QCOM are up nicely while everything else is basically flat. Here's the portfolio as it stands today:
Read more: Portfolio

Overdue for a good day
2007-03-16 15:08:00
As I mentioned in a comment yesterday I got back in SOHU at $22.08 after having been stopped out at $21.40 the day before. This was a good illustration of what I have always hated about stop loss orders, namely that they have a tendency to take you out just when the stock is getting to a buyable level. My solution will be to continue to use stop loss orders but, going forward, I will not hesitate to jump back in if the chart suddenly recovers. Had I done that with PCU last week I'd have a whole lot more beers in the fridge as we speak...I've been overdue for a good day and- wouldn't you know it- I signed in this morning to see three of my positions up a bunch: SBUX +1.40, CBG +1.73, NEM +1.05. I'm going to use this good fortune as an opportunity to raise my stops on each of these. Perhaps even better news is that I don't have any stocks getting crushed so far today. This has been a rarity of late. QCOM, after a nice run, is kind of just sitting there today so I will be watc


Market strong, QCOM not
2007-03-19 18:17:00
...so I sold it. I was keeping an eye on QCOM even before today because it looked to me like its bounce was losing steam. Today, with the market up almost 1%, I didn't consider a 1% drop in QCOM to be a great sign for the short term prognosis of the stock.The Skinny:* Bought QCOM on 3/9/07 for $40.55* Sold today for $43.23 for a gain of 6.5% (annualized return of 239%).I can't complain too much about that. If nothing else it feels good to at least book a profit after my recent shoddy performance.In an unrelated note I also netted 1.4 beers on a QID day trade while eating a bowl of Frosted Flakes for lunch. If I do say so myself, that was a Grrrrrrrreat trade!Disclaimer: This is not advice to buy or sell any particular stock. It is merely what I am recklessly doing with my own money. It is also not a recommendation to buy or to consume Kellogg's Frosted Flakes, which most adults find to be sickeningly sweet. I, on the other hand, find them to be just right.
Read more: Market

IBD 100 is looking ugly
2007-03-19 02:57:00
I'm just doing my weekly review of the IBD 100 and I am taken aback by how ugly many of the charts are. A few months ago, back when we were still in an obvious bullish trending market, most of these charts were gorgeous. Almost all were in a well defined up trends with occasional pullbacks to 20 or 50 day averages where buyers swarmed these stocks. Now, the 100 look like ever other choppy stock chart I've looked at this weekend. A few months ago I passed on most of the 100 because they were too extended. Now I'm passing because I can't tell if the stocks are headed up or down. A choppy market definitely makes a guy work harder.A few examples:


Unfocused Gloom
2007-03-18 13:55:00
In order to keep in touch with what bears are focusing on these days, I've limited the following ramblings to only bearish news:From what I can tell, the impending subprime meltdown may well cause plague, pestilence, and the heartbreak of psoriasis for the entire US population. This story is not going away any time soon...Looking for proof that it is way too late for anyone to do anything about the subprime mess? The Senate will be holding a hearing on the issue this week! Nothing confirms that the horse is already out of the barn more than our fine elected representatives beginning to talk about a problem.Feeling a little too bullish today? Jim Rogers can help fix that with his vivid apocalyptic vision of what it will look like when the real estate bubble bursts. Given that I live in a housing market that hasn't appreciated a whole lot since Reagan was in office, I haven't lost any sleep worrying about the inevitable bursting of the housing bubble. That said, I do agree with Rogers
Read more: Unfocused , Gloom

A little bit of Airport blogging
2007-03-20 16:11:00
Sitting in the beautiful Delta terminal in Atlanta I am pleased to see some very solid gains for a bunch of my stocks today. ANF, which I almost doubled down on last week, is up a buck and a half. NEM, SBUX, and WLT are all up twice what the market is up. And, best of all, AVID is flying, up $2 on the day as I write.I just wanted to briefly relish these green stocks as I'm sure a good chunk of the gains will have evaporated by time I land in the City of Angels.On the down side, my core holding GOOG is still looking really mushy after a decent up day yesterday. If they don't split that stock soon I'm going to have a temper tantrum. AAPL is also sluggish today after finally poking through resistance at $90.Good luck trading today!
Read more: little

Re-thinking My Approach
2007-03-20 00:57:00
For the record, I find my blog very hard to read. Unfortunately, I write just like I talk and that's not necessarily a good thing. I'm generally too wordy and my sentences are quite often convoluted. I use the word "I" way too much. And I start way too many sentences with "and". But these are problems for another day.The real point of this post is to share my fairly simple vision for my portfolio going forward. First of all, my plan is to eventually move all my funds from my core portfolio over to this blog portfolio. I began that process on March 1st and will continue to move over whatever cash I have available at the beginning of each month to my blog portfolio. Once I've done this, I envision splitting my blog portfolio in two and devoting half of the funds to core positions and half to swing trades. Here's what I am currently thinking in terms of the plan and methodology for each of these two portfolios:Core Portfolio:As much as I thought I wanted to totally abandon fu


That felt good
2007-03-21 22:00:00
There is nothing quite like going into a late morning meeting with the NAZ flat on the day and then emerging from the meeting at 3:30 ET with the NAZ up 40-odd points. Wow, thanks Uncle Ben. Looking at my post from earlier today, it reads now like I knew what I was talking about. I clearly did not know anything but it seemed like a good position at the time and it definitely worked out very nicely. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. The bears were clearly fed their livers today.I took the "buy the dips, sell the rips" mantra very seriously today and cashed out of several positions when I came out of my meeting. Today made three straight up days so it seemed like a nice time to end the day with a pile of cash. There's also the adage (myth?) to think about that the first reaction to the Fed is often given back the next day. At any rate, I hope that's the case this time around. Here are the details of my sales today:SOHU was somehow exempt from the jubilation today so I s


Ahead of the Fed
2007-03-21 16:19:00
With February 27th still fresh in everyone's mind, I am expecting that the Fed will go out of its way not to rattle the markets today. Given this view, I wanted to be longer so I added to my MDRX (@$26.74) and SBUX (@$31.63) positions this morning. I like how both of them have behaved the past few days and I am willing to increase my exposure on each. If the market pops after Ben B talks I may well do some profit taking on several of my positions. I considered initiating a few different new positions but decided that I have enough stocks already. My goal at the moment, along with decreasing my hold times, is to hold larger positions in a smaller number of stocks. We'll see how that goes.Disclaimer: I don't know a thing. Do not ever take anything I write as investment advice. It is merely what I am irresponsibly doing with my own hard earned money.


Nice Week
2007-03-23 14:44:00
I was traveling so I didn't have a chance to mention that I bought OI yesterday morning. It was one of two- along with DUK- generated by the breakout screen. I tried to buy DUK as well but had some technical difficulties with my wireless card that prevented me from getting the order executed. As it turns out, OI is the one of the two that has moved anyway. I guess when you're hot, you're hot.Nothing popped out of the breakout screen this morning, unfortunately. I even expanded the parameter from a high of $35 to a high of $60 and nothing came up. Yes, the ROI goes down over $35, but it is still more than good enough for me to buy. Oh well, I guess its selectivity is part of why the screen is such a potentially powerful screen.I'm half expecting some profit taking in the market this afternoon after such a nice bounce-back week. I'm calling it a day by early afternoon and may well go into the weekend with more than my current 30% in cash. I just need to decide on which sto


It's all about annualized returns
2007-03-24 21:31:00
Back in the 70s when I was but a lad they used to call former Cincinnati Reds manager, Sparky Anderson, "Captain Hook" because he was prone to pull a pitcher from the game at the first whiff of trouble. Today, in the era of pitch counts and middle relief pitchers and lefty specialists and right handed specialists and setup men and closers, pretty much every manager changes pitchers just like good old Sparky did.What does this have to do with investing? Well, it's probably a fairly obvious metaphor: I am trying to become the Captain Hook of short term investors. I'm now telling myself, rather than trying to get a certain percentage return regardless of how long it takes, to instead cash out quickly with small gains and get that cash redeployed in a fresh setup. In short, I'm going to do what Sparky would do. I feel like it is finally sinking in that a 1% return in a week beats the heck out of a 2% return in a month and I'm much better off ending the day with more cash whenever possi


Portfolio as of 3/23/07
2007-03-26 04:25:00
I saw a 2.9% gain for the week, trailing all the major indices. That is to be expected since my cash balance was pretty sizable most of the week. I now stand at a 3.33% gain year to date which beats handily the NAZ's gain of 0.17%.Below is the portfolio as of 3/23/07 and it's a pretty short list. AAPL and CBG have obviously been very nice buys. ANF's chart is starting to look very solid to me. MDRX is on a very short leash as its bounce may be pooping out. And, lastly, SBUX should have been sold Friday on its second consecutive weak day after a decent bounce. That one could be dumped any minute now if it doesn't straighten up and fly right. I feel very good about starting the week with 46% cash and will be looking to throw cash at decent setups early and often during the week.
Read more: Portfolio

Catching Knives
2007-03-27 03:40:00
So anyway, a friend emailed me today saying that home builder Technical Olympic USA (TOA) has been hammered lately and might be a bargain. Looking at the chart I said "hammered is an understatement, my friend". To that he replied that he was planning to buy 1,000 to 2,000 shares with the expectation that it would bounce. I told him to give the money to a good cause instead. Truth is, unless this company is in danger of liquidating, a 60% drop in six weeks may be a tad bit of an overreaction. That said, do you want to be the guy guessing when a bottom is going to print? I asked my friend to time travel back to March 19th and ask himself if the stock might have looked like a bargain at that point; Heck, it was down 30% in a month at that point. He said "yeah, it probably looked cheap". I pointed out the obvious, namely that the stock has dropped 35% since then. He then ended our email exchange with a dismissive "thanks". I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts that he buys it tomorrow.
Read more: Knives

Bought CVP...
2007-03-26 18:17:00
I bought CVP this morning at $16.14. It was spit out by one of the "crushed and then bounced" filters I've been fiddling with on stockfetcher. I'm thinking that the EMA 20 is probably as good a target as any for this one. That moving average stands at around $16.84 at the moment. I will, of course, set a relatively tight stop loss and will look to dump out if the upward momentum comes to a screeching halt.I also had a nice quick trade in QLD this morning, entering at 10:30 at $81.32 and selling 23 minutes later at $81.88. It wasn't a textbook BOB but the bounce seemed pretty obvious to me nonetheless. I netted a quick 3.2 beers on that trade.Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy anything. Do your own homework.ON EDIT: I also got back into OI during lunch at $25.69. I sold it at $25.97 on Friday. It looked on the 15 minute chart today like it bounced at around $25.60 so I figured I'd jump back in. We'll see how it goes.


IAAC and the big bounce
2007-03-28 12:52:00
I revisited IAAC last week and thought for a minute about buying it. Unfortunately, I was too chicken to pull the trigger and it's risen over 20% since then.It feels really overbought to me now. That said, even after this recent pop it still only trades at half of its December highs. It's broken through that little bit of late January resistance at $25 and I see very little in terms of upside resistance in the near term.This is a weird one. The momentum makes me want to get in but also makes me wary to jump in now. I plan to keep an eye on it for a day or swing trade and may jump in on an opening gap or return to 4.Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy anything. For evidence of how relentlessly this stock will rip out your heart check out that chart from late December until early March. She can be ruthless and is not for the squeamish.


Hump Day Ramblings
2007-03-28 11:19:00
I sent my bottom-fishing friend an email yesterday asking if he'd bought TOA and he didn't respond for some reason. With the stock down another 11% yesterday he should probably just wait to find it in a grocery store parking lot somewhere in a cardboard box labeled "free to a good home". Lenny Dykstra, who my beloved Mets once traded along with Roger McDowell for then preposterously overrated Juan Samuel, is buying Microsoft deep-in-the-money calls. Specifically, he's buying October calls with a strike of $20. Personally, I was bearish on MSFT when it was trading at $31 back in January and I remain bearish on it now that it trades below $28. Technically, I hate the chart at the moment as it just keeps posting lower highs and lower lows since that January high water mark. Fundamentally, people have been arguing that the stock is cheap for years and yet, it somehow remains cheap. Why is that? Well, it's probably because nobody takes MSFT seriously as a growth company anymore. They d
Read more: Hump Day

Tuesday Stuff
2007-03-27 23:31:00
I did OK today (down .1%) despite it being a pretty crappy day overall in the market. One of my stocks, ANF, was down as much as $2 on the day at times before finishing at -$1.29 at 4PM. Then, right after the market closed, it was announced that ANF will be added to the S&P 500. This news resulted in the stock trading up 2% after hours. Can't compain too much about that I guess.The following were my moves for the day:I finally gave up on CBG today. I should have sold it yesterday when the chart started looking really crappy- but I didn't. At any rate I still eeked out a 3.8 beer gain on that one (annualized return of 26.4%) I was 2 for 2 in day trades on the day. The first was in CBG which I bought at 10:45 for $34.73 after the stock looked like it had found a bottom in the $34.50 range. I sold it for a 10 cent gain two hours later when the chart started looking toppy. That's a 0.9 beer gain. My second day trade was in QLD which I bought off a BOB at 2:44 for $82.62. I cashed
Read more: Tuesday

Cashed out of IAAC again...
2007-03-29 17:39:00
In the interest of not looking a gift horse in the mouth I just sold my stake in IAAC. The skinny:Bought yesterday for $25.61.Sold today for $27.77 for a gain of 8.4% (annualized return of 3078%!). Not too shabby. I might even buy it back later if it comes down a bit.I also initiated a swing trade position in THQI at $34.27. This one came from the breakout filter.I also hopped into a day trade in QLD at around 11:00 on a BOB. It hasn't gone anywhere yet and I may well be stopped out for a small loss any minute now.Disclaimer: This is not advice to buy any particular stock. Invest at your own risk and do your own homework.


Worked hard to break even
2007-03-29 01:17:00
The good news is that I beat the stuffing out of the market today. The bad news is that I didn't make any money. Sometimes not losing money is a major accomplishment in and of itself and today was certainly one of those days.The reason I was able to break even on the day was due to the fact that I had the second best day trading day of my very brief day trading career, netting 12.8 beers. I had four trades, made money on three and lost a very small amount on the fourth. As I mentioned in the comments section earlier, the first and best day trade was in IAAC which I plunked at $24.82 and sold later for $25.95. I also made money in QLD twice, buying it in the 10:45 and 2:30 bars. Yes, it was a crappy day for the NAZ but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see at least a little bit of a pattern in QLD. The great buy I missed was QLD's inverse, QID in the 12:45 bar. I should have been watching that one especially given the negative bias of the entire day. I dumped my position in CVP t


Need to put some cash to work
2007-03-31 16:11:00
Monday is the start of a new month and I've decided to move more money to my blog portfolio account from my core account. I started this blog portfolio back in October with 1,200 beers, added 600 on March 1st, and will be adding another 600 as of Monday. This means I need to find some stocks to buy. It also means that I need to increase my position sizing again. This post will outline the various searches I complete this weekend and, as a result, the stocks that make my watch list for Monday morning. I expect that I will invest in some, but not all of the stocks that make the watch list. Keep in mind that time frame is everything in investing and I'm looking for stocks that I think will perform well over just a few days rather than a longer time period.The Breakout Filter:This filter spits out Smithfield Foods (SFD) and Laidlaw (LI) as of now. LI is in the middle of being acquired so the stock has a tiny ATR of late and has only ranged about 50 cents total in the last 45 days, so I'


Weekly & Monthly Updates
2007-03-31 02:30:00
I hope at the end of April I'll be pulling out the old "patting myself on the back machine", but as for now I am just glad that March is over. Looking on the bright side, I managed to claw almost back to even after the portfolio sat at a woeful -4.8% for the month as of March 13. Year to date my portfolio now stands at +3.68%. Not spectacular, but still quite a bit better than the major indices. See the chart below for the details of the portfolio as of today and my monthly returns versus those of the major indices by month and year to date. Today was an annoying day- so much for end of the month, end of the quarter window dressing. My only transaction today was to take yet another flyer on IAAC. I bought it at $28.50 just as it was beginning a $1+ drop in 15 minutes. Thankfully it bounced back some by the end of the day and I decided to hold it over the weekend.The portfolio now stands at 8 stocks and 17% cash. Several of my stocks- including Apple and Starbucks- aren't acting all t
Read more: Weekly , Monthly

Observations, bloviations, and unsupported opinions
2007-04-01 15:49:00
In case you were wondering, Dr. Brett is smarter than I am. And he's got a great April 1st post that provides links to a couple dozen articles about trading techniques. This article about stop-loss exits might even help my love/hate relationship with stop losses.I am a huge baseball fan, so with opening day being today, I am going to have to ask to be indulged in an occasional baseball reference or analogy. For instance, it occurred to me last night that the disparity in payrolls from team to team can easily be compared to different styles of investing: The Yankees, Mets and Red Sox are the teams with the biggest trading accounts. They typically buy stocks when they hit 52 week (or even all-time) highs. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. Luckily for them, they have so much money that they have the luxury of going out and simply buying another stock that's also trading at a 52 week high to replace the one that doesn't work out. From a fundamental perspective these guys


Semi-focused Rambling about Vonage
2007-03-31 23:07:00
I've come to realize lately that one of the major flaws of being a fundamental stock market analyst like I've been most of my adult life is that I have formed too many well-founded and rational views about specific companies and industries. For instance, I hate airlines and telecommunications companies for reasons I would still argue are completely correct. These two sectors are basically in the same crappy business when you think about it. They are both more or less subscriber-based with lots of competition and high fixed costs and they have little or no ability to increase prices. They're basically fighting over pies that aren't all that tasty.Why then, you may ask, is having a completely sound negative view of an industry a bad thing? Simply put, as with all sectors, if you buy these stocks at the right time you can make a ton of money. I've long argued that your political ideology (cough..Larry Kudlow...cough) never earned you a dime in the market. Similarly, your opinions (an
Read more: Rambling , Vonage

Bought some stocks today...
2007-04-03 04:21:00
Using my weekend crib sheet, I was able to put a chunk of my idle cash to work today.Bought AEIS at $21.47 off its BOB setup completed on Friday.Bought DSX at at $17.70, also off the BOB list.Bought TZOO for $36.97 from my Hot 100 review list.The bad news of the day is that I took a loss on IAAC when I sold at $24.87. It turns out that I went to the well once too often on this one. I kept waiting for a bounce that didn't happen. And given its recent weakness I didn't want to hold it overnight again. I got lackadaisical with my stop loss rule this time and as a result took a 12.8% loss. Another lesson learned, I hope.My newly enlarged trading account now has 23% cash even after the three buys today. I'll be looking to deploy some more cash tomorrow. AVID pops up on the breakout screen and gets added to the watch list I created this weekend. I've also added HPC to my watch list because it formed the third bar of a very pretty BOB today.Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to b


Breakouts: Does current price relative to 52 week high matter?
2007-04-02 19:43:00
First of all, if I haven't said it before, I love stockfetcher. I am a loyal subscriber and I just think their screening and backtesting capabilities are fantastic. And a heck of a lot of fun for an analytical numbers geek like me...Anyway, I was reminded in a roundabout way this morning of the precise reasons I started writing this blog. In one of my (always self-indulgent) unfocused ramblings yesterday I linked to Chris Perruna's list of trader mistakes to avoid. While I may not agree with every one of the rules he lists and may not think they all necessarily apply to my particular style of trading, I linked uncritically to his list. I did this because I think there's value to what he has to say and I believe that I benefit from hearing the perspectives of a lot of different traders. Marlyn, other the hand, disagreed with the list rather vehemently and wrote about one of the rules- whether or not one should buy 52 week highs or 52 week lows- and made a strong case refuting Chris'
Read more: price , matter

Selling Strength
2007-04-04 03:49:00
The market went straight up for an hour this morning, hit a ceiling, and then sat there the rest of the day. QID, being the inverse of QQQQ, obviously shows the pattern of the day in reverse as a plunge, a bottom, and then a straight line for hours and hours. Despite my reputation as a bull, I was for some reason drawn to the contrary play today, playing QID twice off BOBs (11:00 and 12:00). The first play resulted in a small loss on stop out. The second play resulted in hours of boredom followed by a risky decision to hold it overnight. The magnitude of this bit of irresponsibility is potentially large as my day trade positions are 3 1/2 times the size of my average overnight position. We'll see how that goes.I was skeptical of the rally all day, as evidenced by my QID gambit and by the pace at which I took profits today. The following were my trades:Sold the gift surge in SBUX at $31.75 for a 1.8% gain (19.3% annualized)Sold AEIS at $22.11 for a 24 hour gain of 2.4% (1042% annualize


Lacked the courage to trade IAAC
2007-04-03 22:42:00
Because I was very successful trading IAAC late last week and also because the stock took a bunch of my money yesterday, I was watching it fairly closely today for an entry. When push came to shove, however, I lacked the courage to trade it today. Check out the 15 minute chart:You like volatility? That's some volatility for you. You're looking at a $25 stock that ranged 3 bucks, or 12%, on the day. I count seven different 15 minute bars that each ranged 3% or more from high to low! I see two different BOB setups (2:45 and 3:30), one of which was followed in the next bar by a quick 4% drop and the other which was followed in the next bar with a 4% gain. Not to mention that you could drive a Humvee through the bid/ask spread all day long.Sometimes lacking courage can be a good thing.


Looking on the bright side...
2007-04-05 17:40:00
Yes, I got poleaxed by RACK this morning. I've been holding off on using the word poleax until I really felt it was justified. And, I think a 15% gap down after owning a stock for an hour meets the criteria for using the word. But I digress...Whenever something goes wrong in life I try to remind myself that things could always be a whole lot worse. To that point, I present to you... Cutera!See, a 30% gap down is much worse than a 15% gap down! Things can always be worse. I actually mention CUTR simply because I just bought it at $27.04 for a day trade. I'm guessing an $11 drop might be a bit of an overreaction. We shall see.Disclaimer: This is a really risky trade. This is not and nor is anything I ever write to be taken as advice to buy anything. Use my RACK trade as further evidence that you should never follow my lead.ON EDIT: I was stopped out of CUTR at around noon for a tiny loss before anyone could possibly have read this. At the moment I think the stock just want


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