Owner: Rant About It URL:http://rantaboutit.blogspot.com Join Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2007 00:13:47 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: The purpose of this blog is to educate every reader including me about trading in stocks by understanding the fundamentals and techicals behind it... Site statistics:Click here
Abu Dhabi Saves The Day 2007-11-27 18:43:00 A $7.5 billion Abu Dhabi deal to buy Citigroup shares may have created a model for acquisitions by Gulf and other emerging-market investors scouring the ruins of the U.S. mortgage crisis for bargains. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority sought no role in managing Citi Citigroup IncC30.32 0.52 +1.74% NYSEQuote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlis, allowing the world's wealthiest sovereign fund to invest as a saviour of the largest U.S. bank without the risk of being perceived in the United States as an Arab predator. Citi, which could book $17.8 billion in second-half credit-market losses, said ADIA would buy 4.9 percent of stock, eventually becoming the largest shareholder of a bank that has lost 42.5 percent of its market value in the past five months. Other Gulf investors, backed by $1.2 trillion in state reserves, say they could follow, depending on when they expect the worst of the crisis triggered by defaults on high-r Read more:Saves
Professor Roubini's Crystal Ball 2007-11-27 01:38:00 Nouriel Roubini
is a Professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University. His analysis appears regularly on his blogsite, Global EconoMonitor.Last week's prediction was particularly dire and is worth reprinting here: "It is increasingly clear by now that a severe U.S. recession is inevitable in next few months...I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before. In this extreme scenario whose likelihood is increasing we could see a generalized run on some banks; and runs on a couple of weaker (non-bank) broker dealers that may go bankrupt with severe and systemic ripple effects on a mass of highly leveraged derivative instruments that will lead to a seizure of the derivatives markets... massive losses on money market funds with a run on both those sponsored by banks and those not sponsored by banks; ..ever growing defaults and los Read more:Crystal
Falling USD to Boost US Stock Markets and Consumer Spending 2007-11-27 01:14:00 Imagine that you have $2.8 trillion sitting around. And for kicks, let's assume that most of that money, about two-thirds, is invested in U.S. dollars and other dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds. And let's assume that your currency was linked to the U.S. dollar, too. In other words, you often buy dollars to maintain a stable value relative to the buck. Read the rest here....Falling USD to Boost
US StockMarkets
and ConsumerSpending Read more:Stock Markets
Why COF Makes A Nice Short Sale 2007-11-26 23:05:00 Capital One Financial Corp (COF) is a diversified financial services company, which markets a variety of financial products and services through its banking and non-banking subsidiaries. It has four segments: U.S. Card, Auto Finance, Global Financial Services and Banking. The U.S. Card segment comprises domestic consumer credit card activities. The Auto Finance segment comprises automobile and other motor vehicle financing activities. The Global Financial Services segment comprises international lending activities, small business lending, installment loans, home loans, healthcare financing and other activities. The Banking segment comprises local banking operations, which includes consumer, small business and commercial deposits and lending conducted within the Company’s branch network.Capital One said its net charge-off rate rose to 3.28 percent in October from the third quarter's 2.86 percent. The charge-off rate in U.S. cards rose to 5.11 percent from 4.13 percent in the same per Read more:Short
Random Stock Market News 2007-11-26 19:28:00 The Consumer Crunch The long-awaited, long-feared consumer crunch may finally be here. That might not mean an economywide recession, but the pain for American households will be deep.In recent years the U.S. mostly has seen narrowly focused downturns, where a few sectors are hit hard while the rest of the economy and financial markets remain relatively unscathed. In the dot-com bust of 2001, for example, tech companies and stocks took it on the chin, while consumer spending and borrowing sailed through without a pause. This time the positions will be reversed, as consumers tank while much of the corporate sector stays on track.Builders Downgrade Citigroup analyst Stephen Kim said that it's been difficult to time the bottom because the housing cycle's downturn has not coincided with the economic cycle, and because the pullback in the resale market is lagging far behind the market for new homes.He suggested that the good news would come in th Read more:Stock
, Random
, Market
More Trouble Ahead For Financials 2007-12-12 19:21:00 Bank of America said its provisions against loan losses would come to $3.3 billion in the fourth quarter amid deterioration in consumer real estate and small business loans. Bank of America's capital ratios continue to decline, and the bank may not resume stock buybacks until 2009. Wachovia, the fifth-largest U.S. bank by market value, said that the Charlotte, N.C., bank is bracing for mounting loan defaults and another round of losses tied to risky mortgage investments. Wachovia, estimated that its provision for loan losses will be about $1 billion more than its charge-offs. Its previous forecast was between $500 million and $600 million. Meanwhile, the bank said its market-related losses -- including those stemming from mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations -- are on pace to exceed the third quarter's. Wachovia's losses on its exposure to collateralized debt obligations and other assets were about $1.4 billion in October and November, compared with aroun Read more:Trouble
We're Heading Toward Financial Chaos 2007-12-11 18:36:00 We are only at the beginning of the financial world coming to its senses after the bursting of the biggest credit bubble the world has seen. Everyone seems to acknowledge now that there will be lots of mortgage foreclosures and that house prices will fall nationally for the first time since the Great Depression. Some lenders and hedge funds have failed, and some banks have taken painful write-offs and fired executives. There's even a growing recognition that a recession is over the horizon. But let me assure you, you ain't seen nothin' yet.Rest of the article is....hereAnother interesting article is... here
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The Power of Rate-Cut 2007-12-10 19:03:00 Swiss banking giant UBS warned today that it will write down the value of its subprime mortgage holdings by a further $10 billion, leading to a loss in the fourth quarter and potentially wiping out all its profits for the year.Bank of America Corp. said today that it's shutting a $12 billion a money-market fund of sorts and halting cash withdrawals after losses from complex investments tied to the mortgage crisis.Washington Mutual Inc., the nation's largest savings and loan, said today problems in the mortgage and credit markets are forcing it to close offices, lay off more than 3,000 workers and set aside up to $1.6 billion for loan losses in its fourth quarter. Additionally, WaMu slashed its quarterly dividend 73 percent and said it plans a $2.5 billion offering of convertible preferred stock.However with the rate-cut due tomorrow, this kind of bad news had no effect on the market...infact the exact opposite thing happened. The market added 100+ points..This is what i call power of
Drawing Attention: A Weak Dollar 2007-12-21 17:51:00 A weak dollar could draw more attention in the coming year.The dollar's slide against other major currencies in recent years has helped drive up prices for energy and food and in turn contributed to the economic hardship some consumers face. A further drop in the dollar in 2008 could spell more trouble.Dave Minucci who works at JPMorgan Chase says a recent home heating bill was $120 higher than at the same time last year due to higher energy prices and a weaker dollar. He sees what many Americans may not realize: With commodities from oil to natural gas to grain to meat priced in dollars and becoming more expensive as the greenback falls, consumers have to take more out of their wallets to simply buy the same amount of goods. And a lower dollar can also raise the cost of imported goods.The dollar has fallen because of concerns among investors worldwide about the U.S. economy, especially since a cascade of home mortgages has soured in the past year. And the dollar's slide itself has f Read more:Dollar
Consumer Spending Up, But Is It Good Or Bad 2007-12-21 13:48:00 Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity. Consumers put aside worries about slumping home sales and soaring gasoline prices and headed to the malls in November, pushing spending up by the largest amount in 3 1/2 years. Consumer spending surged by 1.1% last month, nearly triple the October gain. (That in my opinion is a bogus comparison. Obviously with holiday season November sales will be better than October)The gain reflected various promotional efforts by retailers such as heavy discounting and longer store hours at the start of the holiday shopping season. (That means smaller profits for retailers. More the reason to stay away from retail stocks.)Incomes were also up last month, rising by 0.4%, double the October increase but slightly below the advance that had been expected. (Income rising is a good thing. Finally something to cheer about.)An inflation gauge tied to spending showed a 0.6% increase in November, the biggest ju Read more:Spending
, Consumer
, Consumer Spending
All Signs Point To A Recession 2007-12-19 09:55:00 The index of leading economic indicators fell for the third time in four months in November, signaling an increasing risk of a U.S. recession. The deepest housing slump in 16 years is likely to worsen as foreclosures mount and banks restrict lending, economists said. Declining property values and rising energy costs may also hurt consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The economy is projected to grow at a 1 percent annual rate this quarter and at a 1.5 percent pace in the first three months of 2008.Jobs ReportMore people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, suggesting that the job market is softening as the economy loses speed. The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications filed for jobless benefits rose by a seasonally adjusted 12,000 to 346,000. It was a larger increase than economists were expecting.House Of PainMoody's Investors Service cut its rating for home builders D.R. Horton Inc (DHI) and Ryland Group Inc (RYL) to Read more:Recession
Why Its Time To Be A Bear 2007-12-19 00:39:00 Financials SlideGoldman Sachs Group (GS). on Tuesday gave a cautious outlook for Wall Street in 2008 because of the ongoing credit crisis, even as the world's largest investment bank chalked up another record-breaking year. During Q4, Goldman's $3.17 billion profit was fueled by higher investment banking fees, one-time asset sales, and surprisingly strong debt trading results. Though quarterly results easily surpassed Wall Street's projections, for some analysts they lacked the kind of power and finesse investors have come to expect. Goldman said it faced one of the worst Novembers on record, which has only somewhat loosened this month. Goldman's troubles were taken as something of an ominous sign for other investment banks yet to report results, particularly Morgan Stanley, which reports Wednesday, and Bear Stearns, which reports Thursday.Lehman Brothers says its Q4 profit fell for the third straight quarter, slipping 11% from a year ago on net write-downs of $830 million on fixed
Nouriel Roubini Break Up 2007-12-30 19:40:00 Nouriel Roubini
Professor of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, breaks it up for us as to how ugly it is out there.Initial claims for unemployment benefits now at their recession level signaling the beginning of a serious slack in the labor market.Durable goods order falling – excluding transportation – for 4 months in a row; and non-defense capital goods orders and shipment falling, signaling that non-residential spending will show negative growth in Q4.Consumer confidence still plunging close to recession levels. Polls showing that a majority of Americans expect a recession in the next 12 months.Oil prices in the $90 to 100 range putting a dent to consumer pockets.Retail sales falling in real terms during the holiday seasons. With consumption spending being Read more:Break
Is This The Bottom For Housing Stocks ? 2007-12-28 17:55:00 The housing market is definitely in deep recession. Every now and then pumpers try to convince retail investors that housing has bottomed, and this is the time to start buying housing stocks. CNN Money covers an article stating how experts completely got housing wrong. Another interesting article about the bottom can be found here.The best way to come to a conclusion is to go over some facts.Today sales of new homes plummeting 9% month to month to their lowest level in more than 12 years to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 647,000. This slump was worse than analysts expected.Over the last 12 months, new-home sales nationwide have tumbled by 34.4%, the biggest annual slide since early 1991, and stark evidence of the painful collapse in the once high-flying housing market.The media Read more:Bottom
, Housing
, Stocks
Consumer Confidence: Why Do We Care 2008-03-25 09:18:00 Why Investors Care About ConsumerConfidence
:The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Consumer confidence did shift down in tandem with the equity market between 2000 and 2002 and then recovered in 2003 and 2004. Consumers became more pessimistic in 2005 when gasoline pri
Weekly Economic Calender 2008-03-25 09:05:00 Series of events listed for this week:The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller national home price index for January will be released Tuesday.On the housing front, the latest quarter's results from Lennar Corp. (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) are due Thursday and Friday, respectively.The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for March will be released Tuesday.February Durable Goods Orders and New Homes Sales will be out on Wednesday.Jobless Claims report is due Thursday.Personal spending and income numbers for that month are out Friday. There is also a plethora of Fedspeak following last week's moves to cut interest rates and allow investment banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Charles L. Evans speaks Wednesday to the National Association for Business Economic
s in Read more:Weekly
A Week Of Madness At Wall Street 2008-03-24 14:23:00 JPMorgan Chase & Co. quadrupled its offer for Bear Stearns Cos. to $10 a share today and struck a deal to buy 40% of the company without a shareholder vote, making it unlikely opponents can block the takeover. A week ago on Monday, JPMorgan Chase agreed to buy Bear Sterns at a fire sale price of $2 a share which caused a panic in the market.On Tuesday, Fed cut the lending rate by 75 basis points, less than the 100-basis-point cut economists expected. However, positive earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) bolstered the case for a positive session, and the Dow finished Tuesday with a gain of more than 420 points.On Wednesday, Dow gave back most of Tuesday's gains falling 300 points. Strong results from investment brokers and a record IPO from Visa did not help the c Read more:Madness
, Street
, Wall Street
Agricultural Commodities: Why You Need To Be Bullish 2008-03-23 22:51:00 One of the sectors that is making waves in 2008 is the Agricultural
Commodities. Emerging markets are booming and so are their consumption. With growth comes a change in lifestyle, diet being an important part of it. The rising middle-class in these emerging markets especially China and India are now calling for both higher quantities and a better quality of food. With industrialization and urban sprawl taking over, Chinese and Indian farmers are continually asked to produce more crops from shrinking amounts of land. They also have fewer farm workers as many have left villages to seek their fortune in more established cities. If you add environmental pressures to the mix, you've got an agricultural situation that's even more challenging.It's estimated that one out of every three dollars ea Read more:Bullish
AU Optronics Corp. - An Attractive Trade 2008-03-27 02:44:00 AU Optronics Corp. (AUO) designs, develops, manufactures, assembles and markets flat panel displays. The Company's principal products are thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) panels. Its panels are used in computer products, such as notebook computers and desktop monitors; consumer electronics products, such as digital cameras, digital camcorder, car television, car navigation systems and portable digital versatile disc (DVD) players, and liquid crystal display (LCD) televisions. It offers small to medium-size panels, as well as large-size panels. AU Optronics Corp. sells its panels primarily to original equipment manufacturing service providers.Recent NewsShare price of AUO were higher March 20 after Jefferies & Co.’s Brian White launched coverage of the company wit Read more:Trade
New Home Sales: Why Do Investors Care 2008-03-27 00:38:00 New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances. Why Do Investors
Care?This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as new home sales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio. Each time the construction of a new ho Read more:Sales
, New Home
, New Home Sales
Durable Good Orders: Why Do Investors Care 2008-03-27 00:07:00 Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods.Why Do Investors
Care?Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising equity prices thrive on growing corporate profits - which in turn stem from healthy economic growth. Healthy economic growth is not necessarily a negative for the bond market, but bond investors are highly sensitive to inflationary pressures. When the economy is growing too quickly and can't meet demand, it can pave the road for inflation. By tracking economic data such durable goods orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.Orders for du
Interesting Stories Of The Day 2008-03-26 00:45:00 Taxpayers May Be Liable for Billions From Bear, Mortgage Rescue Even as the Bush administration insists it won't risk public funds in a bailout, American taxpayers may already be liable for billions of dollars stemming from Federal Reserve and Treasury efforts to quell a financial crisis. History suggests the Fed may not recover some of the almost $30 billion investment in illiquid mortgage securities it received from Bear Stearns Cos.....Read OnPaulson Says New Financial Rules NeededIf big Wall Street investment houses are allowed to run to the Federal Reserve for emergency lending, they must face stepped-up regulation, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson declared Wednesday.....Read OnDemand for durable goods falls 1.7% in FebThe unexpected decline in orders for big-ticket items Read more:Stories
Employment Situation: Why Do Investors Care 2008-04-05 22:03:00 The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor) Why Do Investors
Care?If ever there was an economic report that can move the markets, this is it! The anticipation on Wall Street each month is palpable, the reactions are dramatic, and the information for investors is invaluable. By digging just
Buzz Around This Week... 2008-04-04 20:24:00 Employers in U.S. Cut 80,000 Jobs, More Than Estimated; Jobless Rate 5.1% (Bloomberg)Lenders Swamped By Foreclosures Let Homeowners Stay (Bloomberg)If Recession Is Finally Here, Just How Bad Will It Be? (CNBC)Cramer Makes Sense For A Change (CNBC)Lehman sees banks, others writing down $400 billion (CNBC)How to Predict How Far Home Prices Will Fall (CNBC) Local office vacancy rate skyrockets (The San Diego Union Tribune) Microsoft Gives Yahoo Deadline, Signals Lower Bid (Bloomberg)Bankruptcies Jump 30% in March, Led by Housing-Bust States (Bloomberg)Strip-Mall Vacancy Rate Is Lowest in 12 Years (CNBC)The day $2 billion walked out the door (Fortune)The Mortgage Bust Goes Global (NYTimes)Wall Street undergoes big mood change (Business
US Home Prices In 2009 2008-04-08 03:26:00 Bloomberg has a story about Greenspan's take on US home prices: Greenspan Says U.S. Home Prices
May Stabilize in 2009Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the drop in U.S. home prices will probably end well before early next year as the number of houses on the market diminishes, aiding an economic rebound.It will not be until early 2009 that we will get close to having eliminated most of this home inventory, Greenspan told a conference in Tokyo today sponsored by Deutsche Bank AG and co-hosted by Bloomberg LP. But it is very likely that home prices will stabilize well before that.Greenspan added that the extent of damage stemming from the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market won't be known for months. He described the credit crisis as the worst in 50 years, echoing the as Read more:Home Prices
How 200 DMA Makes A Difference 2008-04-07 20:44:00 By TradingMarkets ResearchUp 10% or more in the past few days may be a great way to start the week, but moves like that can be great ways to start a reversal, as well.We examined millions and millions of simulated stock trades between 1995 and 2007 with the goal of better understanding short term stock behavior. Is it better to buy breakouts or pullbacks? Is it better to buy a stock that has rallied over the past few days or a stock that has fallen for the past several sessions? Which is truly more bullish: stocks that are making higher highs or stocks that are making lower lows?What we found out may surprise you. Most importantly, we found out that context is key. Stocks trading above the 200-day moving average tend to act very differently from stocks that are trading below the 200-day mo
Weekend Webinar 2008-04-07 00:37:00 Interesting technical analysis by Michael Oscar.
Read more:Weekend
When Psychology Changes, News Changes 2008-04-06 22:36:00 Elliotwave blog has a story about how when psychology changes, news changes: When Psychology Changes, News Changes When collective psychology changes, coverage of the news changes with it.I realize how that statement can be understood in at least two ways, so let's get specific. Am I talking about "changes" ina) how news will be covered, orb) the version of news that has been covered already?My answer is: Both. Which is to say, psychology can and often does change everything. In the case of changing the version of news that has been covered already, the most obvious recent example is the Federal Reserve's bailout of Bear Stearns, which was engineered during the weekend of March 15-16.You may remember some of the particulars from the news at that time -- the sense of fear was palpable, as p
Weekly Economic Calendar 2008-04-06 19:07:00 Monday: Consumer Credit (3 p.m.)The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns.Tuesday: Chain Store Sales (7:45 a.m.), Retail Sales (8:55 a.m.), Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), FOMC Minutes (2 p.m.), Consumer Confidence (5 p.m.)This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales.The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. As such, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pendi Read more:Weekly
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, Calendar
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