Owner: Kevin's Market Blog URL:http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com Join Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2007 22:25:53 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: Analysis of STOCKS, COMMODITIES, FOREX and market trends. This report is updated daily with detailed charts and commentary Site statistics:Click here
Watch The Yen If You Want To know What Stocks Are Going To do. 2008-03-04 20:59:45 Today I'd like to share with you something that I've been using in my own personal trading.
Above is a daily chart of the S&P500 and in the lower pane is the Japanese Yen. If you look closely at the above chart, you'll notice the inverse relationship between stocks and the Yen. If the Yen is trending higher, chances are stocks will be moving lower. If the Yen is trending lower, chances are Read more:Stocks
, Going
NASDAQ Breaks Down From Triangle Formation 2008-03-03 23:34:05 Today (Monday) the NASDAQ broke down out of the symmetrical triangle formation. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an acceleration to the downside in the days to come. I shorted some Q's on the open today with a protective stop right above 44.50. Read more:Formation
2 Month Cycle Of Lows In The Bond Market 2008-03-02 00:48:29 It would have been nice if I posted this chart for all of you before Friday but I totally forgot about it.
Above is a daily chart of the 30 year bond. What's interesting about the above chart is that there is a very accurate cycle of lows that occurs every 2 months. All of those vertical lines are exactly the same distance apart and as you can see big rallies tend to take place around those Read more:Month
, Cycle
, Market
Links Of Interest 2008-03-01 17:14:42 Congratulations to Corey from Afraid To Trade on the success of his blog after just one year.
Brett over at TraderFeed talks about using UltraShort ETFs as a Sentiment Gauge.
Investors, Traders Create 'Perfect Storm' for Currency ETFs
Buffett says profit party's over for insurance industry
3 Winners You Don't Know About Read more:Interest
Is This The Next Leg Down For Stocks? 2008-03-01 12:11:07 Looks like the NASDAQ is beginning to break down from its symmetrical triangle. The NASDAQ Composite has been weaker than the dow and S&P since the November 2007 high. You'll notice that the NASDAQ is still trading above the January 22nd low but the ratio line in the bottom pane has been making new lows all month. This clearly indicates how much weaker the NASDAQ is compared to the S&P500. My Read more:Stocks
Where Have Investors Been Putting Their Money? 2008-02-29 23:01:31 Above is a 3 year daily chart of the CRB index and in the lower pane is a ratio line of the CRB compared to stocks. If the ratio line is rising it means commodities are doing better than stocks. A falling line indicates commodities are weaker than stocks.
As you can see, the CRB and the ratio line are BOTH rising which means commodities have been doing much better than stocks since October Read more:Investors
, Putting
, Money
Gold And The Dollar 2008-02-27 16:16:35 Today Gold surged to a new all time high as the dollar fell to new lows. I've been totally wrong about gold and the U.S. dollar. I've been looking for the dollar to rally and for gold to sell off based on intermarket relationships which have served me well in the past but are failing miserably right now.
I'm still skeptical about this rally in Gold but one thing I've learned over the years is Read more:Dollar
Crude Oil Settles Above $100 a barrel 2008-02-26 21:33:09 Crude Oil prices surged today with a record closing settlement price above $100 a barrel. Last week I posted my reasons why I am bullish on oil.. You can read about them here. Read more:Crude
Canadian Dollar Update 2008-02-26 18:16:17 Yesterday I posted my reasons as to why I was turning bullish on the CanadianDollar
and today we say a nice move up. I got long this currency this morning and my protective stop is right below point 3. We'll see what happens. Read more:Update
The Dow And The NASDAQ 2008-02-26 18:07:29 Today the Dow Jones Industrials were up 114 points and closed right on its 50 day moving average. Seems like some people are becoming bullish on the Dow but if you look at what the NASDAQ is doing we see a different picture. The NASDAQ isn't even close to its 50 day avg and is making lower highs. Obviously technology stocks are weaker than the Dow 30 stocks. In my opinion, in order for the
Canadian Dollar Trade Setting Up 2008-02-25 22:08:42 Well, I've been patiently waiting for a trade in the CanadianDollar
and I think I see one setting up.
Above is a weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar. If you look closely at the chart you will notice a very dominant cycle that runs through this particular currency. Approximately every 10 or 11 months a significant low or buying opportunity takes place. In the above chart I marked this cycle Read more:Trade
, Setting
Charts Of Interest 2008-02-23 11:10:00 Above is a chart of the U.S. Dollar and as you can see a symmetrical triangle is forming. I'm still anticipating a breakout to the upside but I will let the market decide which way it wants to go... I have no position at the moment.
Platinum prices are raging and have gone parabolic!
Natural Gas has broken out of its 2 year trading range. If you recall I have been very bullish on Read more:Interest
, Charts
Will Oil Break above $100 Dollars A Barrel? 2008-02-17 09:40:29 Above is a chart of crude oil and in the lower pane is a valuation oscillator that I use. The oscillator is basically comparing crude oil with what other commodities are doing and then I smoothed the oscillator with a moving average.
As you can see every time the oscillator gets to the buy line, crude oil moves higher and takes out the last swing high point. The last swing high point on this Read more:Break
, above
, Barrel
Charts Of Interest 2008-02-16 12:54:14 Above is a weekly chart of bonds vs stocks. Since July, bonds have been a better investment than stocks.
Prior to January 2008, GOOG has been in a beautiful uptrend. As you can see GOOG has been hit hard over the last two months and is now posting its 3rd weekly close below this very significant trendline. Has the uptrend been broken?
The Japanese Yen has been trading within this picture Read more:Interest
, Charts
Consolidation Pattern In Stocks 2008-02-15 16:13:44 Many of the stock indices are forming symmetrical triangle patterns on the daily timeframe. Above is a chart of the NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrials and as you can see the swings in these two markets are getting tighter and tighter.
I think having a postion in the market right now is like playing a guessing game. I'd rather remain on the sidelines and wait for a clear breakout before taking Read more:Stocks
, Consolidation
, Pattern
Stocks Plunge 2008-02-05 21:54:35 Stocks plunged today with the dow falling 370 points as investors fear the economy is sinking into recession.
Above is a chart of the dow jones industrials which I posted last week. Notice how the dow stalled right at key resistance and now appears to be heading lower. From a technical viewpoint the market is in a downtrend and is making lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart.
In my Read more:Stocks
GOOG Conference Call Summary 2008-01-31 17:55:03 Social networking inventory is not doing as well as initially indicated... anticipate other cost of sales could increase going forward... Says hiring in Q4 tends to be slower because of the holidays but will continue to move forward aggressively; decrease in margins was due to the overall decrease in TAC; as they said before margins may continue to decline as they aggressively invest in business. Read more:Summary
Resistance Holds In the Dow 2008-01-30 23:22:19 Just a quick recap on what the Dow jones Industrials did yesterday technically.
The dow rallied sharply off the fed announcement but then stalled at resistance. The dow rallied up to the previous low from November which also coincided with the 50% retracement level of the sell off from December to January.
Below is a 1 minute chart of the dow which shows the nasty reversal that took place Read more:Resistance
Sleeping Bull? 2008-01-28 19:04:43 Above is a 5 year weekly continuation chart of natural gas futures. You'll notice for the past 2 years Natural gas has been in a trading range from $4 to about $8.
Below the price chart are three colored lines which show the net activity of the large, small and commercial traders. What I am interested in is the red line which represents the net position of the commercial traders.
When the red Read more:Sleeping
Platinum Makes New Record Highs 2008-01-27 11:45:15 Has anybody seen what Platinum
has done lately? Over the past 2 days Platinum prices have exploded higher on increasing supply problems in South Africa.
Above is a daily chart of Platinum and below is a 7 year weekly chart. As you can see, platinum is one of the strongest metals right now. Platinum has also pulled gold and silver higher as all 3 metals tend to trend together. I personally Read more:Record
, New Record
Pullback To Buy In Energy Stocks? 2008-01-19 22:37:22 This past week energy stocks got hit hard along with the rest of the market. If you look at the above chart of XLE you'll notice a few technical signals that suggest a potential buying opportunity is setting up.
First of all, notice the high volume that has just taken place. In the past, whenever XLE exceeds a daily volume of over 40M for a few days, a bottom is usually established. This has Read more:Stocks
, Energy
Stocks Get Pounded Again 2008-01-17 17:14:41 Stocks got hit hard again today with the dow falling over 300 points. Above is a weekly chart of the dow jones industrials and the NASDAQ composite. As you can see if you shorted the market when the neckline was broken, you would be doing very well as of today. I did not short stocks, I was actually long and exited with a small loss once I saw the neckline being taken out.
You'll notice Read more:Stocks
, Again
Charts Of Interest 2008-01-16 23:12:45 OIH testing support on big volume.
Nikkei breaks below the 2006 low.
Above is a chart of the four major currencies. Over the past few months the Japanese Yen has been the strongest currency while the British pound has been the weakest.
Above is a chart of GLD. As you can see gold has been hit hard over the past few days on big volume. Some of you questioned me when I exited my long Read more:Interest
, Charts
A Few Links Worth Reading 2008-01-14 21:31:56 Brett Steenbarger walks us through an intraday pattern that shows up at multiple time frames in the S&P. What I like about this particular setup is that it teaches the importance of looking at more than just price.
Corey over at Afraid To Trade talks about how he trades trend days in the stock market.
There's a new coal ETF which offers an alternative to oil. Read more:Worth
, Reading
Stocks Continue To Move Lower 2008-03-10 22:54:41 Stocks continue to move lower as the yen moves higher. As you know I shorted the Q's last Monday based on the NASDAQ breaking down from its symmetrical triangle formation. I'll post downside targets for the NASDAQ and the rest of the stock market later in the week.. I'm lowering my protective stop to 44.00 Read more:Stocks
, Continue
, Lower
Using The Yen To Trade The S&P 2008-03-13 23:37:55 If you've been reading my blog lately, you would know that I have been using the Japanese Yen as a leading indicator to trade the S&P.
Just to summarize, there is an inverse relationship between the S&P and the Japanese Yen and at times the yen will move slightly ahead of the S&P giving us some insight as to what stocks may due.
Today stocks gapped down lower while the Yen was sharply higher. Read more:Trade
NASDAQ Update 2008-03-13 20:01:22 I shorted the NASDAQ on March 3rd around the 43 area on the open. Today the Q's closed at 43.04 so I am about even on this trade so far. The reason I'm short is because of the symmetrical triangle formation and the trend of the market.
In the lower pane is a ratio line that shows the NASDAQ vs the S&P. As you can see since I put the trade on, the ratio line has been rising which indicates Read more:Update
Canadian Dollar Update 2008-03-13 19:49:25 As you know I'm long the CanadianDollar
based on cycles, momentum divergence and the direction of the longterm trend.
As of now I am basically breaking even on the trade. If the Canadian Dollar can rally above last month's high (103), I'll raise my protective stop right below this month's low which is in the 100 area which will cut down my risk on the trade. I'm always looking to cut my risk Read more:Update
XLE Update 2008-03-13 19:38:52 A few of you have been asking me to update my position on XLE so here it comes. Back on January 19th, I wrote about how XLE looks like a buying opportunity. You can read the original post by clicking here.
Since Jan. 19th, XLE has had a nice rally but has not as of yet reached my upside target which is 80. If you are long, I'd raise my protective stop right below the last swing low which is Read more:Update
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