Owner: Gawk Squawk URL:http://gawksquawk.blogspot.com Join Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:11:48 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: Discussion of US political trends with commentary on campaigns and election results as well as the power of political parties. Site statistics:Click here
The Democratic Divide 2008-03-05 21:45:00 We are well into the Democratic
primary race and the results are looking eerily similar to those predicted by a leaked Obama campaign memo from early February. The memo outlines which states the Obama campaign expects to win and which ones it expects to lose. The fact that the predictions have been so accurate implies that voters are making decisions based on factors that are easy to identify and hard to change. During election night coverage, the pundits pour over exit-poll data to find which are voting for which candidates. The voter profiles you hear over and over again on the networks are:Women vote for Clinton, men vote for ObamaAfrican-Americans vote for Obama, Latinos vote for ClintonPeople with college degrees vote for Obama, those without them vote for ClintonYoung vote Read more:Divide
Superdelegate Roundup Update - Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont 2008-03-05 08:56:00 I've plugged in the complete results from the March 4th primaries, plus the latest updates from Democratic Convention Watch. The numbers now stand as follows:Clinton Area Superdeleages: 263Clinton Affirmers: 125 (47.5%)Clinton Defectors: 46 (17.5%)Clinton Undeciders: 92 (35%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 321Obama Affirmers: 123 (38.3%)Obama Defectors: 82 (25.6%)Obama Undeciders: 116 (36.1%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 136Early Clinton Committers: 34 (25%)Early Obama Committers: 26 (19.1%)Early Undeciders: 76 (55.9%)The only percentage that has seen a drastic change from a week ago is Obama's affirmer percentage, which has increased 4.7%. This reflects both Senator Obama's good week in recruiting superdelegates from areas he'd already won (like Georgia and Alabama) Read more:Update
, Ohio
, Rhode
, Island
, Texas
, Vermont
, Rhode Island
You know it's time to vote when.... 2008-03-03 17:17:00 The candidates debate healthcare for 16 minutes and don't cover any new ground. Saturday Night Live has already run out of funny sketches about the debates. You get really upset when 15 minutes go by and there's no update from Slate Trailhead, MSNBC First Read or even Washington Post's The Fix. No one says anything new during 2 whole hours of Tim Russert Sunday programming. You realize that you watched 2 whole hours of Tim Russert programming hoping that someone would say something new.There have been so many campaign commercials, the candidates have to use the same film in their attack and response ads.Even Jack Nicholson is recycling his old movies.No one thinks of the Texas Two Step as a dance anymore.You volunteer to call a hundred people in Ohio for the Obama campaign. Half the numb
The Domestic Policy Gap 2008-02-29 18:18:00 Since Tuesday night's Democratic debate, Senators Obama and McCain have sparred over each other's positions on the Iraq War and foreign policy. While the Iraq War is an important issue, and one in which the candidates clearly differ, most indicators are that domestic policy will play the dominant role in the upcoming general election. This can be confirmed by looking at the exit poll results from CNN's Election Center, which list which issues voters considered most important. I've summarized the results for 6 states below: State Democratic Issues Republican Issues Missouri Economy 55%, Health Care 22%, Iraq 19% Economy 44%, Iraq 20%, Illegal Immigration 18%, Terrorism 13% Read more:Domestic
, Policy
Lobbyists in the Washington Ecosystem 2008-02-27 20:00:00 One of the stated goals of Senator Barack Obama's campaign for President is to reduce the power of special interests in Washington
and return control of the government to the American people. Lobbyists are the conduit carrying special interest influence into government. According to OpenSecrets.org, over 2 billion dollars has been spent on lobbying each year since 2003. Senator Obama's efforts in the Senate include modifying rules to prevent lobbyists from sending gifts to Representatives, and forcing them to disclose who they raise money for. I think it is important to fully understand the role lobbyists play in Washington so we can take further steps to reduce the control they have over the legislative process.A good place to start is this anecdotal article by John Dickerson at Slate Read more:Ecosystem
Superdelegate Roundup Update - Obama Gains 2008-02-26 15:21:00 Senator Obama
has been making strides with the superdelgates over the past week. Since last Thursday, he has secured 11 endorsements, compared to only 1 for Senator Clinton. Many of these endorsements have come from Washingtion, DC and Wisconsin, areas which have already voted for Senator Obama. This has pushed his affirmer percentage up 2 percent, breaking the 1/3 mark for the first time. The latest numbers are:Clinton Area Superdelegates: 208Clinton Affirmer: 104 (50%)Clinton Defectors: 35 (16.8%)Clinton Undeciders: 69 (33.2%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 307Obama Affirmers: 103 (33.6%)Obama Defectors: 78 (25.4%)Obama Undeciders: 126 (41%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 204Early Clinton Committers: 57 (27.9%)Early Obama Committers: 41 (20.1%)Early Undeciders: 106 Read more:Update
Knocking On Doors In Ohio 2008-02-25 21:11:00 This past weekend I celebrated my 30th birthday by driving to Ohio
and canvassing for the Barack Obama campaign. Since I live in Nashville, Tennessee, the Cincinnati area was the most accessible to me. Canvassing was just starting up there and my wife and I signed up for events in the suburbs of Milford and West Chester. These areas are very hostile for any Democratic candidate; both counties (Clermont and Butler) voted 2-to-1 for President Bush in 2004.The atmosphere indicated by the past election results was confirmed by many of our fellow volunteers. Amy, the organizer of the canvassing event in Milford, told us that many people in her neighborhood just check the name with the "R" next to it without knowing anything about the candidates. Still, Amy told us that she had success Read more:Doors
Clinton - Obama Senate Votes Comparison 2008-02-22 11:17:00 Using the Washington Post Congress Votes
Database, I compiled a list of votes that Senators Clinton
and Obama
disagreed on since January of 2005 when they have both been in the Senate
. Also included, is a second sheet containing all votes where both Senators Clinton and Obama voted, with Senator McCain's vote included and information on whether Senator McCain voted along with the Republican Party consensus.Here is a link to the Google spreadsheet.I wasn't able to find any broad trends in the votes where Senators Clinton and Obama disagreed. Out of over 900 total votes, they only disagreed on 52. Out of those, Senator Clinton voted against the Democratic party consensus 30 times, compared to 21 times for Senator Obama. Both Senators appeared to agree with Senator McCain at the same rat
Superdelegate Roundup Update 2008-02-20 16:17:00 The Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet has been updated with the primary results from Wisconsin and Hawaii, as well as delegate pledges from Democratic Convention Watch.Clinton Area Superdelegates: 208Clinton Affirmers: 104 (50%)Clinton Defectors: 34 (16.3%)Clinton Undeciders: 70 (33.7%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 303Obama Affirmers: 95 (31.4%)Obama Defectors: 77 (25.4%)Obama Undeciders: 131 (43.2%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 212Early Clinton Committers: 58 (27.4%)Early Obama Committers: 41 (19.3%)Early Undeciders: 113 (53.3%)The only noticeable change in the numbers is that the percentage of "undeciders" in the pre-vote areas has continued to decline, falling another 4.6% since Sunday. The number of committed superdelegates in pre-vote areas has remained the same since then, Read more:Update
Superdelegates and Campaign Donations 2008-02-19 09:01:00 Last night, I found an article on Capital Eye which investigated the contributions made by Senator Clinton's and Senator Obama's PACs to the campaigns of various superdelegates since 2006. The article finds that the donations made by the candidates to superdelegates provide a good indicator of who the superdelegate has committed to:Yet the Center for Responsive Politics has found that campaign contributions have been a generally reliable predictor of whose side a superdelegate will take. In cases where superdelegates had received contributions from both Clinton and Obama, seven out of eight elected officials who received more money from Clinton have committed to her. The one exception: Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, whose endorsement of Obama was highly publicized, received more from Read more:Campaign
, Donations
Capital Gang on Campaign Finance 2008-02-18 07:30:00 The Capital Gang, a group of journalists that used to have a show on CNN, visited Tim Russert on Meet the Press yesterday. In this web exclusive, Russert asked the gang if Obama should accept public funds for the general election (question is at the 10:25 mark). Mark Shields, Al Hunt and Margaret Carlson said he should. Bob Novak said he shouldn't and Kate O'Beirne said it didn't matter because voters don't pay attention to campaign finance issues. Shield's main case for refusing the funds was that Obama made a pledge to do so and would be hurt by McCain if he recanted now. Hunt also said that refusing the funds wouldn't hinder Obama's campaign that much because the Democratic Party and 527 organizations will be able to raise money for the general election and buy the commercial Read more:Campaign
Superdelegate Roundup Update, Pre-Vote Areas Committing 2008-02-17 10:10:00 I've put the latest superdelegate pledge updates from Democratic Convention Watch into the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet. Both the Clinton and Obama area numbers held steady, but the pre-vote areas saw another 4.2% of their superdelegates commit to a candidate (2.5% for Clinton, 1.6% for Obama). To see how the week went, I've compared each percentage from those in Monday's (2/11) update. Clinton Area Superdelegates: 208Clinton Affirmers: 104 (50%) (vs 48.5% on 2/11)Clinton Defectors: 32 (15.4%) (vs 12.1% on 2/11)Clinton Undeciders: 72 (34.6%) (vs 39.4% on 2/11)Obama Area Superdelegates: 279Obama Affirmers: 89 (31.9%) (vs 33% on 2/11)Obama Defectors: 74 (26.5%) (vs 22.9% on 2/11)Obama Undeciders: 116 (41.6%) (vs 44% on 2/11)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 235Early Clinton Commiters: Read more:Update
General Election Financing 2008-02-16 11:50:00 Senator McCain called Senator Obama out yesterday for refusing to stand by a pledge to accept public financing for the general election. A year ago, when asked in a questionnaire by the Midwest Democracy Network if he would accept public financing for the general election, Obama wrote "Yes. If I am the Democratic nominee, I will aggressively pursue an agreement with the Republican nominee to preserve a publicly financed general election." Now, Senator McCain is saying that he will indeed accept public financing, and he expects Senator Obama to do the same. Obama's campaign has vascillated, his press secretary Mark Burton said “We will address that issue in the general election, when we’re the nominee."The reasons for Senator Obama's change in stance are clear; his fundraising o Read more:General
, Election
, Financing
Superdelegate Roundup Update - New Mexico Called 2008-02-15 07:08:00 Senator Clinton has reached the 50% affirmer plateau, fueled by the calling of New Mexico
in her favor. Most of the superdelegates in New Mexico
had already pledged their support to Clinton. While most of the numbers remained stable, there were a few notable updates from Democratic Convention Watch. Three superdelegates who had until recently supported Senator Clinton, switched their allegiance to Senator Obama. Christine "Roz" Samuels, a former Clinton affirmer from New Jersey, became a defector. David Scott and John Lewis, former Obama defectors from Georgia, became affirmers.Clinton Area Superdelegates: 208Clinton Affirmers: 104 (50%)Clinton Defectors: 31 (14.9%)Clinton Undeciders: (35.1%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 278Obama Affirmers: 86 (30.9%)Obama Defectors: 75 (27%)Obama Read more:Update
All Sizzle, No Steak? 2008-02-14 16:56:00 Both Senators McCain and Clinton have made statements in recent days implying that the main appeal for Senator Obama stems from his rhetorical flourishes, and that he lacks the substance to make real change.To put this claim to the test, I decided to examine the legislative records of all three Senators. Using the Congressional Records database available from the Library of Congress, I compared the bills and amendments introduced by each Senator since all 3 have been in the Senate together, starting in January of 2005. I've placed the short descriptions of the items each Senator introduced and passed in this Google spreadsheet.I realize that this does not provide the whole story. I haven't given much weight to the items the Senators introduced and didn't pass, and I haven't looked Read more:Steak
More Superdelegate Roundup Updates 2008-02-14 08:16:00 Some more pledge data has come in from Democratic Convention Watch and has been added to the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet. Numbers from Senator Obama's areas are steady, but some superdelegates from Senator Clinton's strongholds are committing, and both her affirmer and defector numbers are up. Superdelegtes from the pre-vote areas are also committing, and there Senator Obama saw an increase of 1.9%, vs only .6% for Senator Clinton.Clinton Area Superdelegates: 199Clinton Affirmers: 99 (49.7% - a 1.5% increase from yesterday morning)Clinton Defectors: 29 (14.5% - a 1.4% increase from yesterday morning)Clinton Undeciders: 71 (35.7% - a 3% drop from yesterday morning)Obama Area Superdelegates: 278Obama Affirmers: 85 (30.6%)Obama Defectors: 76 (27.3%)Obama Undeciders: 117 (42.1%)
Superdelegate Roundup Update 2008-02-13 09:01:00 State and district level results from Virginia, Maryland and DC are in and have been added to the spreadsheet. I also added district level results from Maine and all but one district in Washington State. While statewide results for New Mexico are still undetermined, I was able to get results for district 3 where Tom Udall is a superdelegate. These, along with updates from Democratic Convetion Watch, have been added to the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet.Our Affirmer/Defector/Undecider Totals are now:Clinton Area Superdelegates: 199Clinton Affirmers: 96 (48.2%)Clinton Defectors: 26 (13.1%)Clinton Undeciders: 77 (38.7%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 279Obama Affirmers: 85 (30.5%)Obama Defectors: 76 (27.2%)Obama Undeciders: 118 (42.3%)Pre-Vote Area Superdelegates: 241Early Read more:Update
Talking Health Care 2008-02-12 19:02:00 I've been trying to pull together some resources for comparing Senator Obama's and Senator Clinton's health care reform plans. First, here are the links to the plans themselves:Senator Obama's PlanSenator Clinton's PlanAll analyses I've read say the key differetiator between the plans is the mandate Senator Clinton places on all individuals to get health insurance; Senator Obama only mandates that children be insured. Everyone agrees that Senator Clinton's plan will insure more people and cost more than Senator Obama's, though there is little agreement on how many more people or how much more money. Paul Krugman of the New York Times thinks that Senator Clinton's plan is well worth the added expense; he figures that it will cover many more people at only a slightly higher cost. Tim Read more:Talking
, Health
Superdelegate Roundup Update 2008-02-11 19:17:00 I have updated the Superdelegate Roundup Spreadheet with statewide results from Maine (district level results are not yet available), and pledge updates from Democratic Convention Watch.I have also introduced new terminology: a superdelegate who votes along with the popular vote of his/her state or district is an "affirmer", a superdelegate who votes against the popular vote of his/her state or district is a "defector". A superdelegate who has not committed to vote for a candidate is an "undecider".The spreadsheet update yields the following results:Clinton Area Superdelegates: 198Clinton Affirmers: 96 (48.5%)Clinton Defectors: 24 (12.1%)Clinton Undeciders: 78 (39.4%)Obama Area Superdelegates: 218Obama Affirmers: 72 (33%)Obama Defectors: 50 (22.9%)Obama Undeciders: 96 (44%)Pre-Vo Read more:Update
Meet Maggie Williams 2008-02-11 11:54:00 Yesterday, Senator Hillary Clinton appointed longtime aid, MaggieWilliams
, as her new campaign manager. During President Clinton's administration, Maggie Williams served both as advisor to President Clinton and as Chief of Staff to the First Lady. I found a video (real player, streaming) where Maggie Williams introduces a course she taught at the Harvard Institute of Politics in 2005. I don't want to read too much into this, but I found the topic of the course amusing. Of all the lessons learned during her years in the Clinton administration, Maggie Williams found it most important to teach students how to fight partisan investigations. Now that she is Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, her job is to get the voters' focus away from those uglier aspects of the Clinton era.
Superdelegate Roundup 2008-02-10 22:16:00 I've created a spreadsheet to keep track of how superdelegates have pledged themselves coupled with the popular vote in their state or Congressional District. I hope this will help to gauge the impact that superdelegates have on the nomination. If superdelegates voted along with the general population, we would expect them to be evenly split between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. However, the current estimates indicate that Senator Clinton has between 80 and 95 more superdelegates than Senator Obama.I took my list of superdelegates from Democratic Convention Watch. This site lists all the superdelegates and keeps track of which ones have publicly committed to vote for one of the candidates. For each delegate, I indicated how their state voted, if their state has held a caucus or p
Tom Delay's Day 2008-02-08 11:32:00 Yesterday Senator McCain spoke to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in the first of what will be many attempts to mend fences with his party's conservatives. While some conservatives appreciated his efforts, others used the event to further annunciate their objects to the Arizona Senator. Most conspicuous among the latter group was Tom Delay
, the former representative from Texas. In an interview with Chris Matthews, Delay highlighted his differences with McCain on issues including gun control, immigration, global warming and campaign finance reform. When Matthews tried to pin him down and asked him, if faced with the prospect of a Hillary Clinton Presidency, would he continue to withhold his support from Senator McCain, Delay equivocated, saying the he didn't kno
Political Fundraising 2008-02-07 21:33:00 A topic in the current presidential election that I don't believe has received enough attention is the shift we're seeing in how the candidates raise funds. Over the past few decades, most political funds have come from the so-called "masters of the Rolodex" who use their social networks to put on elaborate, $2000 a person, fundraising events. Additional funds come from PACs, Unions and businesses. The 2004 Presidential race saw the beginning of the online fundraising phenomenon. Howard Dean led the fundraising pace early, driven by small contributions from individuals online. Dean's candidacy died with the famous scream in Iowa, but online fundraising persevered. Today, it has been taken to new heights by Senator Barack Obama who raised $32 million dollars from hundreds of Read more:Fundraising
Superdelegate Roundup Update - Mississippi Results 2008-03-12 17:56:00 The Superdelegate Roundup Spreadsheet has been updated with the Mississippi
election results and other endorsement updates. Most of the numbers remain unchanged, although Senator Clinton's affirmer percentage has slipped a little bit more due to the resignation of Governor Spitzer in New York. Read more:Update
Let's be Fair to Tucker 2008-03-13 17:47:00 Next week Tucker
Carlson's nightly show on MSNBC will be replaced by a show hosted by David Gregory. I've encountered several stories both on television and print announcing the cancellation of the "bow-tied" host, often with glee. All of them either mentioned the "bow-tie" in the first sentence, or pictured him with it, even though he stopped wearing the bow-tie over a year ago. Here is a sample:MSNBC.com (the website of his own network!)New York Times Washington PostThe Money TimesThe Colbert Report I have no problem deriding what Tucker was, his bow-tied attire caused me to chuckle almost nightly when he was on Crossfire. Jon Stewart had this great television moment when he pointed out how ridiculous Tucker's role on that show was. However, we should recognize people when
Mississippi Republican Votes 2008-03-13 16:45:00 I've been puzzled by the Mississippi
exit polls which indicate that Republican
s made up 13% of all the votes in the Democratic primary there, and 76% of them voted for Senator Clinton. This is a sharp reversal from most previous states, where Senator Obama captured the majority of Republican voters. Andrew Romano at Newsweek made this post trying to explain the vote. It shows that the Republican voters who voted for Senator Clinton tended to like her less then they liked Senator McCain - but they disliked Senator Obama even more. Of all Clinton Republican voters in Mississippi 94% said Obama did not inspire them, 89% said they would be dissatisfied if he were the nominee and 86% said that Obama was not trustworthy. The same numbers for Senator Clinton are 61%, 41% and 72% respe Read more:Votes
Republican Veepstakes 2008-03-15 10:58:00 With the Republican
nomination well settled, I think it's an appropriate time to start guessing who John McCain may select as his running mate. To help educate my guesses, I've tried to pull together data on which states are most likely to flip from the party they voted for in 2004. Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post put together this list last week of states he thinks are most likely. I've also used electoral maps from SurveyUSA which were constructed from poll data in each state. Here is the map if Senator Obama is the Democratic nominee. Senator Clinton's map is here. The maps illustrate differences in the strengths and weaknesses between the Democratic candidates which should guide Senator McCain's Vice Presidential selection. Senator Obama's strength is in the mid-west
What Obama meant about his grandmother 2008-03-20 21:26:00 Senator Obama
's landmark speech on race relations has dominated the news cycle for the past couple of days. There have been many reactions, a good summary of them from Howard Kurtz at the Washington Post is here. I found it amazing how Senator Obama was able to so eloquently blend his own life story with the rest of the American racial experience in a way that both caused reflection and hope. This morning, however, Senator Obama made remarks during a Philadelphia radio interview that were much more controversial than anything he said during the speech. When asked about the comments he made about his grandmother during the speech, Obama said:The point I was making was not that my grandmother harbors any racial animosity, but that she is a typical white person. If she sees somebody on th
Phil Bredesen's Superdelegate Solution 2008-03-19 19:25:00 Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen wrote an op-ed for the New York Times this morning suggesting a solution for the Democrats' superdelegate dilemma. He proposes holding a "superdelegate primary" immediately after all the primaries are completed on June 3rd. The superdelegates' votes would then be bound to the results of the primary, guaranteeing the nomination to one of the candidates before the convention in August. This way, he hopes to allow the Democratic party to use the summer months to focus on the general election, rather than determining the nominee:Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could each still believe that the nomination could be his or hers at the national convention in Denver in August.In that situation, we would then face a long summer of brutal and unnecessary warf Read more:Solution
Superdelegate Roundup Update 2008-05-08 19:37:00 It's been awhile since I posted an update on the superdelegate roundup spreadsheet, although I have been making updates to it regularly. Senator Clinton still leads in all superdelegate categories, although the size of her leads has declined sharply. The numbers now stand at:Clinton area superdelegates: 309Clinton affirmers: 163 (52.8%)Clinton defectors: 69 (22.3%)Clinton undeciders: 77 (24.9%)Obama area superdelegates: 369Obama affirmers: 171 (46.3%)Obama defectors: 87.5 (23.7%)Obama undeciders: 110.5 (29.9%)Pre-Vote area superdelegates: 67Early Clinton committers: 20 (29.9%)Early Obama committers: 18 (26.9%)Early Undeciders: 29 (43.3%)Senator Clinton is still retaining a greater percentage of superdelegates from areas which voted for her (52.8% vs 46.3%), as w Read more:Update
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