Owner: Forex Trading Journal URL:http://forex-tradingjournal.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2008 13:35:37 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: Forex Trading on EurUsd, GbpUsd, UsdChf, UsdJpy and EurJpy. My focus are in day trading and also longterm trades which are based on both technical and fundamental analysis. I also take high considerations to macro-economic factors. My aim is to become an Site statistics:Click here
Euro Analysis: ECB still some way from shifting to easing mode 2008-03-03 04:24:00 Although there are clear signs that some of the ECB rate setters are shifting to a more neutral, if not exactly dovish stance, the anti-inflation stalwarts like Weber and Stark seem far from ready to abandon the tightening bias. Indeed, Weber sounded even more hawkish earlier today with a warning that markets are too benign in terms of the outlook for inflation based on current rate expectations (ie a cut later in the year). He not only questioned whether HICP would return to sub-2% price stability ceiling levels at all this year, but also said the staff projections made in Dec underestimates the outlook for 2009. This is widely expected to be addressed this week when updated forecasts are published in conjunction with the Mar 6 policy meeting, while in contrast GDP estimates are seen lowe Read more:Analysis
18th June-22nd June 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-06-19 23:34:00 My current positions:1. buy cadchf o:1.1594 sl:1.14852. sell eurusd o:1.3416 sl:1.34783. sell gbpusd o:1.9846 sl:1.99164. buy usdchf o:1.2415 sl:1.2274I think the major trend change is taking place now. On fundamental basis, I think everybody want to cut interest rate now based on the inflation conditions. Technically, all the major currencies look like topping/bottoming out. I'm not quite sure about this, but let us see how the market will answer to the question. The dollar also has looks like has turned bullish.Updates:22nd June 2007:I closed all my positions on 19th June this week:1. sell eurusd o:1.3416 sl:1.3478 c:1.3429, -13 pips2. sell gbpusd o:1.9846 sl:1.9916 c:1.9916, -70 pips3. buy usdchf o:1.2415 sl:1.2274 c:1.2376, -39 pips4. buy cadchf o:1.1594 sl:1.1599 c:1.1609, 15 pips5. s
11th June-15th June 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-06-13 23:32:00 I traded some positions this week. Currently has closed all of them, one of them have been stopped out:1. buy gbpusd o:1.9674 sl:1.9661 c:1.9740, 66 pips2. sell usdchf o:1.2374 sl:1.2412 c:1.2412, -38 pips3. buy gbpusd o:1.9716 sl:1.9661 c:1.9740, 24 pips4. sell usdjpy o:121.71 sl:122.09 c:121.67, 4 pips5. sell eurjpy o:162.46 sl:162.87 c:161.73, 73 pipsTotal: 129 pipsThe dollar rise last week because of the bond yield been pushed to 5-years peak. I don't know how long it will continue, but at the moment the dollar index is consolidating at 82 - 83 level (refer the dollar index chart below). There is strong resistance at 83.42 level, so far it cannot breach the resistance. The dollar index also should have already test the trend line, I guess. Heavy news on US market on Thursday and Friday
28th May-1st June 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-05-28 23:26:00 I feel quite nervous when opening my positions, maybe because of I have not trading for a while. My current positions:1. sell eurusd o:1.3454 sl:1.34872. sell gbpusd o:1.9842 sl:1.99093. buy usdchf o:1.2271 sl:1.22174. buy usdjpy o:121.65 sl:121.35All positions are trend following. Yen position is quite tricky, but i think 161.60 support will hold it. Another possible trade is to buy usdcad, which is against the trend, the risk is higher. I will be watching how it goes. Today is holiday in UK and US, maybe my positions will start to develop tomorrow.Updates: 29th May 2007: Two of my positions got stopped out: 1. sell eurusd o:1.3454 sl:1.3487 c:1.3487, -33 pips 2. buy usdjpy o:121.65 sl:121.35 c:121.35, -30 pips Total: -63 pips Re-entry: 1. buy usdjpy o:121.42 sl:121.37 2. se
14th May-18th May 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-05-14 23:25:00 Got 2 positions now, opened during London session's opening:1. sell gbpusd o:1.9831 sl:1.99102. sell gbpjpy o:238.53 sl:239.16I just follow the trend, it can go up a little bit, but last week downtrend still looks strong to me. Anyway, I'm quite busy currently, so I guess I just take these two trade for this week.Update:24th May 2007:Both position got stopped out long time ago:1. sell gbpusd o:1.9831 sl:1.9910 (trailing 80 pips) c:1.9820, 11 pips2. sell gbpjpy o:238.53 sl:239.16 (trailing 80 pips) c:238.45, 8 pipsTotal pips: 19 pipsJust been saved by trailing stop . Lucky lucky (actually i don't like trailing stop). Price is way above my entry now. I guessed i shouldn't trade at all last few week. Too risky for me. I'm not updated with market situation now. Don't know what is going on. May
30th April-5th May 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-04-30 23:21:00 Opened 5 position this evening. Around 11 am London time. I didn't update earlier at the time because the weather condition was not good. I just opened the positions, put the SL and shut down my PC.1. buy eurjpy o:162.68 sl:162.092. buy eurusd o1.3596 sl:1.35713. buy gbpjpy o:237.65 sl:238.824. buy gbpusd o:1.9902 sl:1.98525. sell usdchf o:1.2090 sl:1.2114The positions are going well currently (writing this at night). I missed the usdcad trade, it has dived down more than 100 pips. No problem with that. Let's just see how the market will close today. I am assessing my trades SLs now.One thing that bothers me is there are gaps in the opening of this week. I don't really sure how this will affect the market and what is happening during the weekend. This put an alert on me. Have to be careful Read more:April
23rd-27th April 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-04-23 23:19:00 The internet connection is okay now. The technician from the telco have done a great job. So lets get working again. I have opened 3 position tonight, these may be my final trades for this month:1. buy gbpusd o:1.9999 sl:1.9907 tp:2.03632. sell usdchf o:1.2115 sl:1.2159 tp:1.19053. buy eurusd o:1.3560 sl:1.3479 tp:1.3726All are trend following positions. My take profit targets are very far away, I just don't know up to where the market will go. If i feel want to take profit, or have to take profit, or need to take profit, I will just do it, no doubt to wait the price to hit to my target, because I realize that they are far.Updates: 25th April
2007: SL moved: 1. buy eurusd o:1.3560 sl:1.3611 tp:1.3726 2. buy gbpusd o:1.9999 sl:1.9941 tp:2.0363 3. sell usdchf o:1.2115 sl:1.2084 tp:
16th-20th April 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-04-16 23:16:00 Opened 4 positions, late afternoon, I think around 11 am London time:1. sell usdchf o:1.2117 sl:1.22022. buy eurusd o:1.3564 sl:1.35073. buy eurjpy o:162.06 sl:161.034. sell gbpchf o:2.4154 sl2.4250Looking for another trade in usdcad in short position. All position are trend following, except for gbpchf, reversal possibility.Now all trades in development.Updates: 17th April
2007: Closed positions: 1. sell gbpchf o:2.4154 sl:2.4250 c:2.4250, -96 pips 2. sell gbpchf o:2.4228 sl:- c:2.4253, -25 pips 3. sell gbpusd o:2.0000 sl:2.0020 c:2.0020, -20 pips 4. buy gbpchf o:2.4255 sl:2.4190 c:2.4258, 3 pips 5. buy gbpjpy o:238.97 sl:238.19 c:239.00, 3 pips 6. buy gbpusd o:2.0036 sl:2.0013 tp:2.0037 c:2.0013, -23 pips 7. sell gbpusd o:2.0021 sl:2.0069 tp:2.0020 c:2.0020, 1 pip Tot
2nd-6th April 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-04-02 23:13:00 Opened 3 position this evening. Just continuing last week move (refer comment section for last week).1. Sell GBP/CHF o:2.3962 sl:2.4008,tp:-2. Sell GBP/USD o:1.9728 sl:1.9761,tp:-3. Sell USD/CAD o:1.1564 sl:1.1587,tp:-Updates: 4th April
2007: My GBP trades got stopped out: 1. Sell GBP/CHF o:2.3962 sl:2.4008, c:2.4007, -46 pips 2. Sell GBP/USD o:1.9728 sl:1.9761,c:1.9762, -34 pips Strange, I got stopped out lower than my stop-loss price for GBPCHF. Anyway the price have gone higher so it was good for me. My GBPUSD also have 1 point slippage, i think that is normal. I am standing aside from GBP trade for a while, will see it again tomorrow. My USDCAD is still not developing, just let see how it go. Not so nice starting for the week, I'm down from the starting line. Total pips t
26th-30th March 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-03-26 23:11:00 Back to trading again. Opened several positions late this evening:1. Buy GBP/USD o:1.9596 sl:1.95102. Sell USD/CAD o:1.1619 sl:1.16633. Sell USD/CHF o:1.2212 sl:1.22554. Sell USD/JPY o:118.22 sl:118.73Positions based on trend: GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHFPositions based on reversal possibilities: USDJPY (doji star)Updates: 26th March
2007: Closed Position 1. Sell USD/JPY o:118.22 sl:118.73, c:118.07, 15 pips. I don't like the way it bounce back upward after the dive. Yen looks weaker on all crosses. Carry trades resume? Other position looks good.27th March 2007: Added 1 position to USDCHF and moved stop-loss: 1. Sell usdchf o:1.2150, sl:1.2172 2. Sell usdchf o:1.2212, sl:1.2172 Other positions remain unchanged. GBPUSD look a little bearish, don't know why, but there some positi
12th-16th March 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-03-12 13:01:00 Traded some positions:Open TimeTypeItem OpenS / LT / PClose Time ClosePips 2007.03.12sellusdchf1.23500.00000.00002007.03.121.233317 2007.03.12sellgbpchf2.38842.40000.00002007.03.122.3660224 2007.03.12sellgbpusd1.93361.94450.00002007.03.121.932412At one moment, the gbp trades especially the gbpusd was in nice profit. I was not on the PC at that time so no take profit at that level. I just take what the market gave me and leave, no greed. The usdchf is traded against the trend, I wasn't confident enough, so I cut the trade off, giving some free risk room to my another hot trade, gbpchf. Gbp slides hard last two week, by opening the gbpusd & gbpchf this should diversify my gbp trade. I closed both of them because I saw the bull is starting to take control, a retracement Read more:March
Soros Blamed Yen Carry Trades for Turbulence 2007-03-10 13:00:00 George Soros
blamed yen carry trades as one very important factor in the current turbulence in global financial markets. As the YEN is basically interest-free, a lot of money is coming from borrowing and lots of Japanese money are going abroad. As the YEN weakened, a lot of people got into yen carry trades, thus causing a shake-out in financial markets. Soros also attributed the turbulence partly to a slowdown in the US economy and the housing situation. A slowdown will lead the US economy to more balanced growth while faster growth elsewhere will help correct the US trade deficit but that will lead to less liquidity in the market, Soros said in an interview with the Financial Times.Soros predicted that the Chinese govt will try to prevent a collapse of mainland bourses in the run up to th Read more:Carry
, Turbulence
5th-9th March 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-03-08 12:58:00 I opened lots of positions, I think I am being over-traded this week. I felt a little bit fearful on the market after last week sell-off. You can see this by how i took profit in my trades below:Open TimeTypeItem OpenS / LT / PClose Time ClosePips 2007.03.05sellusdchf1.21611.22140.00002007.03.051.2214-53 2007.03.05sellusdcad1.17851.18220.00002007.03.051.1822-37 2007.03.05sellusdchf1.22181.22510.00002007.03.061.2251-33 2007.03.06buygbpchf2.35482.34840.00002007.03.062.359446 2007.03.06sellusdchf1.22461.22830.00002007.03.061.22442 2007.03.05buygbpusd1.92361.91770.00002007.03.061.931478 2007.03.05buyeurusd1.30981.30610.00002007.03.061.312224 2007.03.05sellusdcad1.18041.18310.00002007.03.061.176836 2007.03.07buygbpusd1.93041.92440.00002007.03.081.932521 2007.03.07sellusdchf1.22351.22330. Read more:March
GBPYEN Trades Review 2007-03-02 12:57:00 My draw down this month is much caused by GBPYEN trades. Though I have winning trades in past few months, I found that this draw down has spoken to me. I just been trading this pair actively last month (February 07) and it is observed that this currency pair has contributed a total lost of 590 pips for the month. This is really unacceptable.Dropping this currency trade would prevent me from those lost from occurring again. I admit that this currency really promising to be traded, but the risk involved is too high, too much for a new trader like me. I must avoid that risk.As an alternative, I'll go to EuroYen. My history with EuroYen is good. Most of them were winners, and the risk taken for each trade were small. This should improve my performance. It is one part of 'cutting losers small'
26th Feb-2nd March 2007: Trades & Commentaries 2007-02-28 12:55:00 Opened positions: NoOpen TimeTypeItem OpenS / LT / P 12007.02.26buyeurusd1.31741.31120.0000 22007.02.26buygbpjpy236.90235.110.00 32007.02.26buygbpusd1.96301.95370.0000 42007.02.26sellusdchf1.23131.23510.0000All positions were opened based on last week market trends (trend following). usdchf has gap on opening. Currently the gap have been filled and it unable to break the Friday's closing price. It seems there is a support holding at 1.2295 of usdchf now. All positions are still in -ve region.Well this is just my trade, I don't know how other people sees the market, everybody should do their homework first before entering the market. Hope everything will go well.28th February 2007Closed all positions:Open TimeTypeItemOpenS/LClosePips2007.02.26sellusdchf1.23131.23511.2170143 20 Read more:March
It was Bias 2007-02-25 12:51:00 I was biased. That was what happened to my GBPYEN trade two weeks ago. I lost more than 400 pips because of that. I have the chance to cut the lost small, but I didn't do it. Why? Because I felt that the price will go higher and my position will go +ve. It is quite hard to describe how, I don't know how to describe it, but that is the feeling, more like hoping at the market. It is like I believed that the market that will go higher but in reality it is not, and it is going in another way, but I still believe that the price will go higher amid the reality and I held the position. I hope that will describe it.It is really hard we are in conflict with our on believe. Even when the reality have shown us the fact, but the believe in us will give us many reason not to respond to the fact. Many r
19-23th February 2007: Outlook & Trades 2007-02-18 12:48:00 Still analyzing the market. Yen have made some upside move. I still haven't look at other market, I'll look later. I have a family ceremony in this weekend, now helping my parents. Chinese New Year is also around, so Happy New Year for Chinese all around the world, good fortune for all, and have a nice weekend.Updates: 19th February
2007: I opened 4 positions: 1. buy eurjpy at 157.03, sl:156.61 2. buy gbpjpy at 232.70, sl:231.88 3. buy gbpusd at 1.9460, sl:1.9389 4. buy usdchf at 1.2341, sl:1.2304, tp:1.2405 I feel quite worry about GBPUSD trade,it looks like still in bearish condition, i have to re-evaluate this position tomorrow. 19th February 2007 Update 1: buy gbpjpy at 232.70, sl move to 231.78 from 231.88. 19th February 2007 Update 2: Added position: buy eurch Read more:Outlook
Dollar Technical Analysis: 28th Jan 07 2007-01-28 12:42:00 Weekly chart: Both trend line intact. Price touched the lower down trend line but closed below it. Ignore the MA, it is for the daily chart. The green trend line is the monthly trend line, the penetration is not valid because the month is still not ended.Daily Chart: Uptrend line intact. Price still above 20 MA, watch the last candle that I highlighted. It penetrated the down trend line but then rejected. Price slopes decrease from 15th to 26th January 07. MACD signal almost generating sell signal (not shown here).This is just my opinion, it does not represent the market opinion, and this is just based on technical analysis only with no regards on the fundamentals. Market opinion may differ with mine.Updates: 31st January 2007: Stop loss again, though it is +ve pips, I felt really pain Read more:Analysis
, Dollar
, Technical
Dollar, where to go? 2007-01-20 12:40:00 Last week I have lost large number of points because trying to short GBPUSD, it was a mistake. I has drag me to almost break-even level, while on the early of the week I have generated almost a third of my account size. I have my reason on doing this, they were the fundamentals factor on the USD side, which have shown many positive data for the economy. Seems like there are a very strong resistance on USD that holding it from getting any higher. Maybe there are large numbers of stops and limit order on the upside of USD.I remember again that last year I am reading an article saying that Buffet is shorting on USD by billions, maybe this is one of the reasons. Buffett says that dollar will crash this year. I don't know about this, but Buffett have his own reason, and a man with that outstand Read more:Dollar
When To Exit? 2007-01-13 12:38:00 Still on exiting. I still not good in exiting a trade. I still have the doubt whether to exit or not. I have no problem in entering a trade when i see a setup, but to exit, seems like a difficult decision to me. Usually when I want to pull the trigger to exit, I will hesitate, thinking that the trade will go further higher or lower, and at last I moved the stop higher or lower. It was just a single click away, but it is hard and confusing for me. When I open the screen later on the next day, my trade have been stopped out, making me loose some good amount of profits. It is very frustrating.What should I do? Do the simplest thing of all, I must exit at hesitation. Note to myself again: exit at hesitation. Exit at hesitation, exit, exit. Full stop.My outlook for next week.The dollar seems qu
Exit Rule 2006-12-28 12:36:00 I still having problem in determining when to exit a trade, especially when its profiting, I love to ride the trend and always have in mind to get a ride on it. It is this action that has always made me to lost big chuck of profits, like what has happened in my last trade. They got stopped out. Perhaps I have to revise my exit rules. I have found some good rules to follow, a simple one is:"Let your SLOW MOVING winners ride, and cut your "TOO FAST" winners and all of your losers short"Hopefully this could save me from loosing big chunks again, or getting out of trade too soon. Next week I think will not be a good week to trade, because of the holiday break and the end of the year, and I sense that there will be a lot of profit taking activities. Lastly, I wish happy holidays and enjoy the g
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) vs Dollar 2006-12-01 12:31:00 Malaysian Ringgit has gained more than 1% since past 2 months because of the dollar slides. The main reason for the dollar slides is the economic fundamentals of the USA, which are the inflationary factor and the housing factor of the country. Below were the latest USD/MYR 4hr chart:Weekly chart, looks like diving toward 3.5800:This dollar depreciation will looks beneficial to peoples who want to buy dollar. But as an exporter country and tourism country, Malaysia will loose some profits in trading & currency inflow when dollar is converted to the MYR, a bad news for the exporter and the country. The lost is just 1% of it, looks like not that much but if when traded in big volume, the loss will become significant, but by just 1% of total maybe, or maybe less, because the imports cost w Read more:Dollar
, Malaysian
One Year of My Currency Trading Blog 2006-11-11 12:26:00 Today mark one year of my currency trading blog. I don't know what to say. While I love trading, I don't feel that money is that important to me. Yet money is needed but only on some amount, because I don't feel that I need a lot money.Trading
make me realize what is more important than money: knowledge & good deeds. Without knowledge, the whole pile of money in the world is not enough to us. Without good deeds, I feel that my life is meaningless & useless. I think that is why the two richest people in the world, Bill Gates & Warren Buffett has donated more than half of their wealth to philanthropies. They contributes, and they contributed big.Along this one year, I have read more than a dozen books on trading. Most of them are on technical analysis and some on psychology. The Read more:Currency
, Currency Trading
Stagflation 2006-10-30 12:23:00 From wikipedia:Stagflation is a combination of the words stagnation and inflation, a term in macroeconomics used to describe a period of high price inflation combined with economic stagnation, unemployment, or economic recession characteristic. "Stag" refers to a sluggish economy with job shortages and little income growth, while “Flation” signifies rapidly rising prices.Stagflation is considered to be a problem, because most tools for directing the economy, that is fiscal policy and monetary policy trade off growth for inflation. Either they slow growth to reduce inflationary pressures, or they allow general increases in price to occur in order to generate more economic growth. Stagflation creates a policy bind where attempting to correct one problem creates another. The problem in mo
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