Owner: Smart Property Buyers URL:http://smartpropertybuyer.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2008 03:44:10 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: FOR THE PRUDENT PROPERTY BUYERS and INVESTORS: This blog contains a collection of forecasts by Singapore street smart property investors call Smart Buyers. With their first hand experience through years of property cycles, they make sound forecasts on pro Site statistics:Click here
Smart Buyers Collection: Singapore property market is doomed 2008-03-03 17:59:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singaporeproperty
watchers.By: SeanPosted: 4-Mar-2008Singapore property market is doomed
to fall/decline this year and next year. The main reasons are as follows: (a) There are still a significant number of speculators (estimated at 30%) still holding to their existing properties with the hope of making quick bucks before TOP. Unfortunately, there will be 30-40 condo developments numbering up to 20,000 units which will go TOP this year or next year. Its real unfortunate that in 2008-2009, the global economy will not improve. There will be over-supply on top of the existing sales that we see on Classified Ads every Saturday...We shall also see pages and pages of auction sales or files for bankruptcies. As such, some desp Read more:Smart
Smart Buyers Collection: SOLVENCY WORRIES STALK CREDIT-DERIVATIVES MARKET 2008-02-14 22:18:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: AnonymousPosted: 14-2-2008So as to bring you up to speed on what's happening in the real world ........ and its possible effect on us , ..the following that is happening may affect the financial health of the banking systems in the US (but like the proverbial frog in the well, all is still blue skies to you). They are now talking of SOLVENCY, not just LIQUIDITY issue .......it's really quite serious now. This is not meant to frighten but be a voice of caution ........ so as to mitigate potential losses! SOLVENCY WORRIES STALK CREDIT-DERIVATIVES MARKET Gross applied the historical average default rate of 1.25 percent to the $45.5 trillion of notional swaps and assumed a 50 percent recovery Read more:Smart
Chronology of Major events that impact the Singapore property market from (III): 2003 to 2008 2008-02-09 01:34:00 2003Outbreak of SARS & Gulf War - The gloomiest year in the history of the Singaporeproperty
market.2003 (Feb) Budget 2003 - e.g. Defer restoration of CPF employer contribution rate for 2 years; lower CPF salary ceiling over 2 years;new property tax rebate for commercial and industrial properties for 2H03.2003 (Apr) $230 million on SARS Relief Package e.g. Additional property tax rebates for commercial properties; higher property tax& 100% rebate of TV licence fees rebates for gazetted tourist hotels; cess rebate2003 (Apr) Single Purpose Company Requirement for GLS sites lifted2003 (July) Formation of HDB Corp and announcement on the public housing building programme. Programme would be opened upto the private sector – starting with 10% in July 2006 and reaching 50% in July 2008 Read more:events
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Chronology of Major events that impact the Singapore property market (II): 1997 to 2003 2008-02-09 01:22:00 Graph shows the Property Price Index from 1960 (Click on the image to view details.)1997The Asian financial crisis. Property price plunged.Reversal of Anti-speculation policy implemented in 1996:Removal of $30,000 capHDB owners allowed to book a new private property
only after occupying the flat for 5years.Government sale sites deferred and project completion period (PCP) extended for up to 8 yearsl.Stamp duty for sellers was suspended.Join the Smart Buyers Forum1998 More Property policy reversal:Land sales were suspended; 15% property tax rebate for commercial and industrial properties commencing July 1998; Property tax exemption for land under development reinstated; exemption will be for a period of up to 5 years,and will apply from the time construction begins to the time the TOP is gr Read more:events
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Smart Buyers Collection: Bad investments are made in Good Times 2008-02-09 01:11:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: kmPosted: 10-10-2007In 1993, my partner and I bot 2 commercial properties in shenton way at the average px of $810psf. 2 yrs later in 1995, (the peak), an agt called to offer me $1600 psf, my partner told him $1700 psf as we need to pay the capital gain tax, guess what happen?, we finally sold the property through the same agent at $1510 psf...in 2006, some 11 years later. Why didnt we sell at $1600 in 1995??, because we were collecting very good rental, enough to pay the bank and still have money to spare, it make sense to keep for long term. Mistake !!!. because rental fell, interest went up. The following years saw the rental falling yr by yr, interest went up and during the currencies Read more:Good Times
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Smart Buyers Collection:..inflation is up. Most of the Singaporean is spending wisely.. 2008-02-09 00:33:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: Be coolPosted: 30-12-2007Even though the economy is doing well in Singapore, inflation is up. Most of the Singaporean
is spending wisely and they are going for more affordable HDB and EC. The cars are also at it lowest at this point of time. Expensive Private housing is for the rich. However, if they are really rich, then they should look for landed housing. Many of these foreign buyers are also speculators and with some of the measure enforce by government, it will definitely frightens them away. The downward transactions for the past 2 quarters are a good sign. Singapore government is good for their control and law enforcement. Government has assured that the housing will stay affordable Read more:Smart
Smart Buyers Collection:Having a house which has a big loan is a liability at this global trouble time. 2008-02-09 00:29:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: AnonymousPosted: 30-12-2007Government has already started to supply more HDBs and ECs to the market. They have also given more sites for private housing development. The price has gone too high and I am sure there are many who can't support the loan when their apartments are ready. The buyers are hearing more news and they now do their math before buying. The banks also do their assessment before they approve the loan. There are condos that have their TOP and units are still available. They Singaporean income has not changed much and the dreams of owning a private apartment will be put aside now that they have woken up. Many of the foreign companies will be laying off staffs next year espe Read more:Having
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Smart Buyers Collection: Big Boys CARNIBALISE on the weak and common people 2008-02-09 00:25:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: Wee LiangPosted: 28-12-2007If everyone were to be as intelligent, and yet kind enough to give logical advice, there certainly will be less casualties. I was in the property industry, we have datas and informations that ppl on the street do not have. We know the game that BB is playing, ya to be direct...Quek, Ng you name a few, ...are selling properties, gov want to look good for the IR ...so is a GAME...and SPH reported wat is in line with gov policies...Is the BB CARNIBALISE on the weak and common ppl....of course, is also not the duty of property agent to tell you WAT is the Happen, we need to earn the commission for a living!!! Take these pointers seriously please...I have been selling Read more:Big Boys
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Smart Buyers Collection:I foresee a correction of 20% from here. 2008-02-09 00:15:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: dellPosted: 28-10-2007The sharp rise in the property mkt during the last 12 months was partly fuel by the enbloc sales, speculators and of course there are the geniune buyers who are worried abt missing the boat. It is beyong doubt that the DPS plays a impt role in the developer's sales as buyers only need to pay up 3 yrs later. With this remove, it is just like stocks, when the brokers removes the T+4, just like the recent UniAsia, the buyers will have to pay upfront when buying, the prices will fall, if not collapse. When the developers offer DPS, they are indeed paying for the interest incurred and hence build the cost into the prices. At 4% per yr, for 3 years, the interest playable by Read more:correction
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Smart Buyers Collection: In every bubble market, there is always a reason or beautiful picture that lead people to "Over-paying" for the assets. 2008-02-08 22:49:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: SotongPosted: 19-10-2007In every
bubble mkt, there is always
a reason or beautiful picture that lead people
to "Over-paying" for the assets. In the 1990's, our govt forecast gowth of 10%, economy was doing much greater than now. Ask the businessmen and they will tell you that the mkt conditions are getting tougher than before. You may nopt believe it, our govt was so optimitic abt the mkt that even propose to link up our MRT to JB, malaysia. A crazy now but then at that time, everything was so bullish. One of my friend who is in insurance told me that his client was doing very well in his business and bot a land to build a factory with a cold room. He went bust before the factory was ready Read more:Smart
Smart Buyers Collection: This market is definitely driven by greed & liquidity.. 2008-02-08 22:44:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: rob_502Posted: 18-10-2007I think the goverment is doing all that they can do relieve the short term supply crunch. What I am worried is that they may over do it and there will be an oversupply in a couple of years. I am sure they are controlling the media, notice that it is not so much hyped up as 6 months ago. The hyped up it is, the more people will panic. Market is everywhere is too hot to touch, property, stocks, china, you name it. However the ELEPHANT (US) is definitely going to slow down. Let's see how this will affect the EASTERN superpower. I have never seen anything like it in my lifetime. Property prices goes up as fast a the stock market. This market is definitely driven by gre Read more:Smart
Smart Buyers Collection: During the 1995 -1998 period, the same scenerio arise. Many people cant get the HDB flat... 2008-02-08 22:18:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: AnonymousPosted: 18-10-2007During the 1995 -1998 period, the same scenerio arise. Many people
cant get the HDB flat. There was the ballot system and it is just like "ti-kam", 1 out of 8 can get to buy. Due to this flocked system, many people, including those who are not so keen buyer also join the Q, paying $10 as a ballot fee, when they get balloted, then they decide whether to buy or not. At that time, similar to now, many people were worried that they can get their flat, rushing in to buy. Govt see good demand, built even more flats, thus causing the mkt to change from over demand to over supply. Many were convinced that HDB prices will not fall, at that time, it has never fallen before Read more:Smart
Smart Buyers Collection: main cause of today's boom is the massive rate of enbloc dislocation.. 2008-02-08 22:10:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: Oct10Posted: 12-10-2007I recently sold my suburban investment property in July 2007 just after it crossed the 1996's peak value for similar property types. I took the 96 peak as a benchmark that while there may still be some upside in today's property boom, it's not going to be very much more. In my mind the 1996 frenzy was greater than the current one, even without the IRs, F1, 6m population, etc. Back then, Hong Kong was priming for its return to Communist China in 1997, and many Hongkongers were buying up properties in Singapore and taking up residency here and elsewhere in their bid to secure external homes. Singapore was one of the four roaring economic tigers, the sense of job securi Read more:massive
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Checklist for Buying Property 2008-02-06 18:18:00 The purchase of property, whether for investment or as home, involves a substantial amount of money and often involves long-term financial commitment. Imprudent purchase made on impulsive decision can lead to financial crisis such as severe indebtness and bankruptcy. The following is a checklist to help you plan your property purchase: Affordability The first consideration is affordability . As a general guide, your total monthly housing loan instalment should not exceed 30 per cent of your monthly income. This will help ensure that you have sufficient money left for fulfilling other objectives such as your childrens' education and saving for retirement. Do your calculations even before you start with your property hunt. Emergency Fund It is also prudent to set aside cash and/or sufficien Read more:Buying
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Smart Buyers, 10 Reasons to wait.... 2007-09-20 04:22:00 1) Supply is Increasing RapidlyIf you wait, chances are you'll be spoilt for choices.According to URA's data, there'll be a supply of 65,400 residential units by 2010.PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL UNITS IN THE PIPELINE EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED FROM THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2007(Source: URA)In addition, the GLS (Government Land Sales) programme for 2008 Q1 will add another 8250 units. The government has assured Singaporeans that it will continue to review the GLS to meet demand.Add that to HDB's Ponggol 21 plus, Dawson Estate and the many design and build flats that will give private condo a run for its money; and you'll see the reason to wait. What about those enbloc sales which will come back in manifolds their orginal number. To give you some sense of the quantum, I've seen site which used to be just Read more:Buyers
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Major events that impact the Singapore property market from 1960 to 2007 2007-09-14 04:39:00 A study of major events
that impact
the Singaporeproperty
market will better help one to predict the market trends, e.g. like which part of history is likely repeat itself etc.1960 HDB formed and 12,000 flats built between 1960-70; Property Tax introduced 1968 CPF implements Public Housing Schemes for home ownership (which sees 90% of Singaporeans owning their homes today). 1972 Inflow of foreign funds and the beginning of Singapore's golden years. 1973 Property curbs introduced: foreigners not allowed to buy residential properties; property tax surcharge w.e.f. 1974 1974 Oil Crisis which afflicted the US economy of which Singapore was very dependant on. The year saw a plunge in Singapore property price and Singaporeans learned how their home price has every thing to do with Read more:Major
Singapore Property Supply Crunch? 2007-09-13 04:19:00 The key argument by vested parties for a continued increase in Singapore
property price rests largely on "SupplyCrunch
".Here is a typical example: According to Citigroup, the property supply crunch is likely to get worse despite government assurances that supply over the next few years is sufficient. They reckon that the foreign worker inflow will continue to overwhelm available residential units. Jobs growth in 2007 is keeping pace with the 176,000 jobs generated in 2006, of which about half were taken up by foreigners... Conclusion: Demand outstrips supply so property price must continue to go up.Argument like this, which has propelled many property investors to plunge into the property market, while persuasive at first sight, has serious flaws. Firstly, it fails to see the price mismat
Why are Singaporeans paying sky-high prices for property? 2007-09-12 00:38:00 According to the Household Expenditure Survey 2003 (www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/papers/people/op-s9.pdf):93% of HDB households own their flats and 88% of private residential households own their properties.So why are Singaporeans still paying sky-high price for property
?The simple answer is that: They don't have to.Then why are they doing it? Namely, kiasu.(Have something to say about this? Click here.)In a nutshell, the property market in Singapore is strong fuelled by sentiment, rather than fundamental. Hence, any down turn in sentiment is enough to send prices plunging. (Have something to say about this? Click here.)Take for instance the resale market between 2004 and 2006, despite continuous economic growth ( a positive fundamental), the negative sentiment continues to drag prices down in
Smart Buyers Collection: Low mortgage rate - beware of being lured into a mortgage trap 2008-03-09 20:54:00 Smart Buyers
Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.Low mortgage rate - beware of being lured into a mortgage trap. The following is a firsthand experience.By: AnonymousPosted: 09-03-2008Let me just remind you people out there, I've fallen into this trap before I was offered a low housing loan for the first 3 years, when it expired the bank will start to increase the interest rate what started off a low of 2.5 % it went as high as 6 %. Imagine paying 6 % for $ 1million dollar loan. You will be working like a dog just to pay off the interest. It's very true the housing loan rate follow SIBOR rate, when the rate drop do you think the Bank will offer you the same rate, the answer is NO. The rate they they offer new customers is definitely lower t Read more:Smart
Singapore Property is over-priced 2008-03-18 22:15:00 Why's everybody blaming the US subprime problem for the poor take-up in the Singapore
property market? The way I see it, the real problem is over-pricing. A typical unit in the suburb costs about $1M and can be rented for $3K which gives only a yield of 3%. That's a very high risk for such a low return. CPF gives 2.5% with no risk. Of course some people will argue that the rental yield is only to pay for the interest, "I can sell it at much higher price for profit" but if the present owner gets 3% and let's say he sells it at a higher price, then the next buyer will be looking at an even lower return ... eventually a property is only a home for someone and it boils down to people's affordability. With an average household income of $6K, a mass market priced above $1000 psf is simply beyond
Major problem Singapore faces is talent renewal 2008-03-17 22:23:00 Smart Buyers Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore
property watchers."In the long run, the major problem that Singapore will face is with talent renewal i.e. getting talented people to be involved professionally at the various levels of government and support industries. If this problem cannot be resolved, it will eat into the growth prospects of the country. This issue will be seen after the next five years and will ripen (given the current state of things) within ten to twelve years."By: AnonymousPosted: 18-03-2008Here is what I feel we can see in the next five years: Singapore, on a whole, is competitive and is still working hard to bring in investments. The economic fundamentals are sound and economic growth should not be a major issue. Making money should Read more:faces
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Global Recession+Global Inflation=Global Stagflation 2008-04-11 20:51:00 Smart Buyers Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore property watchers.By: AnonymousPosted: 12-04-2008In the big recession of the 70s, stagflation was also the key reason why it lasted till the early 80s.The IMF says it will be a GLOBAL recession. In case you don't understand what GLOBAL means, it refers to countries on an international basis and not just the US. Europe and Asia are going to be greatly affected; decoupled or not, we need to tighten our belts now to prepare for the next one to two years of recession and retrenchments. Commit to a $1m property with a big loan and you will find yourself in negative equity in less than six months. GE in the US is a belwether; this means investors look at it as the biggest indicator of the performance of the consumer Read more:Global
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Singapore Property Market: A forecast for 2008 2008-04-27 19:31:00 Smart Buyers Collection is a collection of words of wisdom by various Singapore
property watchers.By: uncertainPosted: 28-04-2008Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year. We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008. Rationale was simple and not rocket science. #1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started. The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all. #2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. Read more:Market
Bull vs Bear : Singapore Property Outlook 2008-05-15 21:09:00 Excerpt of forum exchanges between Bull and Bear.Bull wrote: I think comparing the current property with 1996 is a mistake. The current price holding strong and not going down with any bad news. (Background info: The Singapore
Property market saw an all time peak in price in 1996 but the market crashed by 40% to 50% during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.)Bear wrote:1996 should be compared with 2 Read more:Outlook
Property Price Up or Down? 4 Variables to consider 2008-05-15 20:53:00 Posted by: AnonymousPosted: 13-05-2008Whether or not the property uptrend continues in the next one year really depends on the recovery that can take place in the US. Personally I feel that the US Federal Reserve and government is ready to go all out to buffer the financial sector against massive losses due to the risk of bank runs and subsequent systematic economic collapses. This being the case,
Uncertainty for both bulls and bears 2008-05-15 20:40:00 This post presents the "self-fulfilling" nature of the marketplace. It is food for thought ..Posted by: AnonymousPosted: 14-05-2008 There is a great deal of uncertainty for both bulls
and bears. No one knows which direction the markets are going to take in a couple of months time. We are currently in limbo, waiting for the next BIG sign to appear. The markets are like a highly compressed spring. T Read more:Uncertainty
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