Owner: Fallond Stock Picks URL:http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com Join Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2008 08:21:43 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: Online financial market commentary and stock picks. Participants in Stock Market competitions get my newsletter free - enquire within. Site statistics:Click here
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-03-08 18:31:45 Another sour end to the week. What had the Stockcharters to say about it. Joe Reed has his summary and has a few new charts available on his public list.Reed's Euro-Dollar chart is good:The S&P Retail index is fighting to hold key Fibonacci support:Can the S&P repeat the double bottom a la 2006? Biggest difference is the cyclical bull market of 2006 compared to the cyclical bear market of 2008.The Nasdaq looks to have confirmed a break of the 2004-2007 rising channel:Ted Burge shows strong resistance for the QQQQ on the 30-min chart at $42.18.Ted shows daily support for the Nasdaq at 2,164 and resistance at 2,240:While the Semiconductor HOLDrs (SMH) is in a well defined sideways pattern:Maurice Walker gave another lengthy review
of the week's action:Draw Poker is a game of chance. The luck
Capitulation time (again)? 2008-03-07 08:14:50 A Nasty Jobs Report and futures down big. The Nasdaq looks to have most to loose as the January low is only a short stones throw away.
Read more:Capitulation
New KIVA loans 2008-03-07 03:42:02 The latest loan came courtesy of R. Harmsen's new membership. I have allocated the money to a group of 6 entrepreneurs in Tanzania.Elizabeth, age 32, is married and owns a video library where she works from 8am to 7pm daily. She started this business in 2007 and now makes a monthly profit of about $180 from her rentals.Elizabeth now hopes for a loan to increase her video stock. She will share this loan with her subgroup. They belong to the loan group called Kipunguni, whose members keep each other accountable in paying back their loans.In the picture, Elizabeth is 1st on the right ,standing In addition, there is $50 to redistribute to new loans:First up is Santos Mariena Cadena:Mr. Santos Mairena is dedicated to the business of planting and harvesting basic grains in the Somotillo township
Bullish Percents 2008-03-06 04:29:56 The indices were thrown back into the quagmire of the past 2-month consolidations as the Bullish
Percents flipped negative once more. It was interesting to see the DOW hold 12,200 as support:With a comparable support level (1,324) visible for the S&P:But resistance, rather than support, was clearer for the Nasdaq:Given the position of the bullish percents, should one view them as bullish or bearish? Bears will look to the lack of oversold conditions in the bullish percents as an opportunity to push stocks trying to lead a rally out lower. Bulls will see increasing strength from stocks posting new breakouts on point-n-figure charts as diverging from the weakness in the indices. As fewer and fewer stocks drag on the indices, the quicker - and sharper - the resulting rally will be. I hold to
Exponent (EXPO) 2008-03-05 05:13:34 Exponent (EXPO) originally featured as a subscriber pick for February 1st [$]. On Monday the stock cleared a bullish flag on higher volume. On Tuesday the stock stabilized around $30.75 resistance. So Wednesday could see the follow through from the bull flag breakout. This is a relatively illiquid stock, so building and exiting a large position would be difficult. The stock doesn't trade options and there was no company specific news to account for Monday's breakout. The point-n-figure chart is also unchanged from the original feature. As for a price target, I have stuck with my initial expectation [$]. Trade my Stock Picks at
Coeur D Alene Mines (CDE) 2008-03-05 04:24:45 Coeur D Alene Mines (CDE) had initially featured as a blog stock pick for December of last year. The Technical picture has improved considerably, although the gold miners have not enjoyed the same exponential growth as seen in base metal prices (this is bearish for the base metal as stocks lead commodities with respect to performance). Given there is a reasonable chance of a breakout failure one could use Monday's move as an opportunity to raise the stop for the December 'Buy'. The point-n-figure chart has a new price target of $9.25 from the December 17th target of $7.75. The chart is nicely set for a triple top breakout if it can make it to $5.50 (an additional 'Buy' trigger).On the options front the January 2009 $2.50 calls currently trade at $2.90 from the ask (up $0.85 from December),
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-03-01 18:48:54 A horrible Friday sent shivers down the spines of bulls. How did the Stockcharters see it?Ted Burge has a video available at www.thetedlines.com Ted's words of wisdom:When the 20 MA is gone as support it is resistance until proven otherwise. If you watch closely, the MACD will usually signal when price crosses the 20MA. The TED LINES are objectively verifiable and they are NOT an accident. They are a solution based on price and NOT indicators. Get back to the future and get focused on price, because PRICE IS KING!Point and Figure charts remove the noise. Look at 'WHERE' they told us to buy and then look at the TED LINES. It is not 'WHEN' to buy or sell it is 'WHERE' (on the chart) to buy or sell. For the Q's Ted has support marked at $42.76:Although the point-n-figure chart is aiming for $ Read more:review
Semiconductor Holders (SMH) 2008-02-28 05:27:25 The 50-day MAs are the talk of the town for the various indices. The SOX is stuck below its, but the Semiconductor
HOLDRs (SMH) broke through - a nice follow through to Tuesday's higher volume resistance breakout. If this breakout holds it will be good news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.In defence of the SOX, it is on the verge of a major breakout of both its 50-day MA and declining resistance from December. If it takes its lead from the SMH and breaks though it will create some room for a nice run to the 200-day MA.It's not hard to find wags waiting for the next decline, knocking recent market strength. I would prefer to see a more active retest of January lows, but the more I look at this market - the less I think this will happen. Trade my Stock Picks at
Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY) 2008-02-27 03:59:45 Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY) has seen steady growth off the back of rising gold prices. The 20-day MA has proven itself to be a relatively good 'buy' point over the course of the last few months, but an alternative entry price could present itself if the mini-pennant covering the last 4 days breaks to the upside. The stock initially featured to newsletter Subscribers as a pick for January 25th [$] after its bullish gap breakout. Existing holders could raise their stop to a trailing 1% break of the 20-day MA until it reaches my suggested target. Options players are out of luck on this one. The most recent PR was an upgrade from HSBC Securities on February 19th. Trade my Stock Picks at
Volatility and Zig Zag 2008-02-26 05:14:55 There was an interesting relationship between profitable long trades in the S&P and the Zig-Zag indicator applied to the VIX. Over the past 10 years there have been 4 periods when a trade initiated at turns in the Zig-Zag indicator have turned profitable long trades - with no failures. The 'buy' side Zig-Zag signal has matched reaction lows in the S&P very nicely. The 'sell' side Zig-Zag signal has been a little early, although during the 2000-2003 Bear market it gave a perfect signal. However, one thing which has been consistent across 'sell' signals has been a lower 50-day MA compared to the 200-day MA. In the current market, this would approximate to another 6-months of VIX weakness/sideways action (and higher market prices). In terms of S&P returns it could be anything from 15-50% depe Read more:Volatility
Bullish Percents mixed once more 2008-02-26 04:49:24 The Nasdaq Bullish
Percent turned bearish with a drop below its 5-day EMA. If this weakness was to represent itself in the index I would look for a new closing low for February (but not necessarily a break of the month's intraday lows). However, the index does sit close to a break of declining resistance connecting January, and both February reaction highs - a big day this week would break through this resistance and likely negate the 'sell' trigger in the Nasdaq Bullish Percent:Better was the leading action in the Dow Bullish Percent. It finished Monday at 33% having managed a new reaction high for the month. This strength filtered through to the index Monday when it made its first break of the two reaction highs for February. Look for this strength to continue with a further push above 1
Anyone for coffee? 2008-02-25 04:11:56 In an article I wrote back in April 2006 I had talked a little about the expectations for soft commodities. My outlook at the time for coffee and cocoa where overshadowed by the subsequent rallies in the grains (corn in particular). However, taking another look at the long term chart for coffee there is an almost picture-perfect breakout from a cup-and-handle pattern for February with a 1996 price high of $300+ to aim for:Factor in growing demand from China (via Maoxian) and you have a nice recipe for future growth. Any supply problem from a crop failure would really set the cat amongst the pigeons.I did a quick search for stocks with coffee in their title and came up with the following: CBOU, DCFF, DDRX, GMCR, GWDC, JVA, PEET, SWS/UN.TO. Unfortunately, for companies like Peet's, Caribou's Read more:Anyone
Stockcharts.com Weekly review 2008-02-23 17:33:05 With the long weekend out of the way, what water has passed under the market bridge?Joe leads off with is his Crude Oil chart. Note resistance dating back to November of last year:Joe does not see the January bottom as significant for the S&P:Or channel support in the Nasdaq:However, the S&P does have Fib retracements to help:Ted has a number of interesting charts. First there is the band of support at 352 for the Semiconductors:With the Russell 2000 finding support at 689But this support is countered by a breakdown in the point-n-figure chart which has a downside target comparable to a retest of January lows:Maurice Walker has another epic to read. Light at the end of the tunnel?The Financials were the catalyst to turn the market around in the last hour of trading on Friday. As CNBC repor Read more:review
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Stagflation? 2008-02-22 04:39:30 I am no economist, so I may have my terminology wrong here, but looking at the relationship between Crude Oil Prices and the 10-Year Treasury Note there was a fundamental shift in that relationship over the course of 2007. The shift from inflation to stagflation(?) filtered through to the market in October 2007 and hasn't changed since. More bad news ahead over the long term? In terms of the market, bulls looking for rally targets may find indices 200-day MAs the best bets.
Early signs of revival? 2008-02-21 04:24:42 After a good day on Wednesday, what can the bulls pull out of the bag next? On a closing basis there was a modest resistance breakout in the S&P, helped by the earlier February 12th 'Buy' signal in the Bullish Percents. Having said that, the S&P Bullish Percents need to break 35% soon if the momentum of the signal is not to be lost.The Dow Bullish Percents do exhibit better health, only the index has to pick up the pace. Closing support at 12,200 remains strong. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents still ride the January 24th 'Buy' signal, but a breakout has yet to occur in the index.
Read more:Early
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Contango Oil and Gas Co, (MCF) 2008-02-20 03:50:09 Contango Oil and Gas (MCF) has featured a number of times in my stock pick section of the website. Tuesday's little jump above a tight consolidation is a good opportunity to raise the stop - if not add to a little more, or take a new position. I haven't raised my price target. The stock has been relatively news shy of late, with quarterly earnings already out of the bag. Trade my Stock Picks at
Top 3 Dividend Stocks 2008-02-15 05:09:49 I ran a quick scan for dividend paying stocks on MSN Screener with the following parameters: Current Dividend
Yield >= 5% Market Capitalization >= 100,000,000 Div Yield: 5-year average >= 5% EPS growth YTD vs YTD >= 25% EPS growth Qtr vs Qtr >= 15% Return on Equity >= 17%The screener returned eleven stocks; best of the bunch were[1] Terra Nitrogen Co. LP (TNH): This has the added advantage of belonging to Agricultural Chemicals, ranked strongest sector according to Barchart.com. The weekly chart is looking tired with falling volume on new highs combined with a bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line. Should the stock trade inside a $72-$126 range it would be an attractive dollar-cost-average candidate. Those looking to pick a single entry price should look to the Fibonacci levels: $103 Read more:Stocks
Wednesday Market Review 2008-02-14 04:26:37 Current market opinion is available daily at my parent site. Subscribers to my newsletter get this information delivered to them by email. The 20-day MAs became the first scalp for bulls. Volume did measure as a (modest) accumulation day, negating Tuesday's distribution day. Last week's gaps for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are the next challenge on the menu for tech indices. The leading Russell 2000, which was able to nudge a break of its 20-day MA yesterday, now has the 50-day MA only some 10 points away. Again, if the Russell 2000 breaks its 50-day MA I would expect the other averages to follow suit. Large caps [Dow and S&P] have a little further to run before they get to their 50-day MAs, with the tech averages (NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) the furthest away. However, the semiconductor in Read more:Wednesday
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Bullish Percents rise once more 2008-02-14 04:05:35 The Bullish
Percents have turned bullish (again!); although the Nasdaq Bullish Percent have been bullish since January 24th. The Dow is interesting as 12,200 looks to be support based on closing price.The S&P struggles a little and this could reverse as a whipsaw signal - but for now it is bullish.McClellan Oscillator holds on to bullish signalBut indices remain vulnerable as recent gains fall well short of the prior week's selling. Double bottom confirmations will need 5%+ gains in the indices, which given the gains we have seen over the last few days could take a while.
Bullish divergences at play as Tuesday's gap breakdowns tempt.... 2008-02-12 04:42:54 There is one stock for today, Contango Oil and Gas (MCF) available in the free section of my main website and made available to readers of my newsletter.As for the markets it is still a waiting game to close last Tuesday
's gap breakdowns, although the 20-day MAs are likely to get in the way first. As a sidenote, there is an interesting divergence at play in the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MAs. When the market bottomed in January only 15% of Nasdaq stocks were above their 50-day MA. This rose to 26% as the market made a new closing low for February. This divergence is further supported by the bullish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator and MACD trigger line. Also look at how a negative divergence played out during the October top. Trade my Stock Picks at
Read more:Bullish
Stockcharts.com Weekly Review 2008-02-10 15:37:49 Dr. Joe kicks the week off with his summary:Joe is marking a bottom for the Nasdaq:He has an interesting chart showing the correction in Citigroup during the last recession. Look at the volume...Even on the all-time chart:The monthly Nasdaq is on a bullish percent watch:Ted Burge has some important levels to watch in the Russell 2000:and QQQQs:Richard Lehman had this to say:2/9 -- The big picture hasn't changed but the short term is really mixed. The larger trends are all still down and heading toward what should represent at least a retest of the former lows or even new lows. That may take a few weeks or more to develop though. Meanwhile, the major indices are getting there in their own ways. The short term mini channels are so unclear it appears the Dow is down, SPX is up, Naz, QQQQ, RUT Read more:Weekly
Bulls step in.... 2008-02-08 04:21:14 The McClellan Oscillators held their bullish form as bulls stepped in, with volume, to stall 3-days of declines. At least on a closing basis (ignoring the intraday range) both the Nasdaq and NYSE are on course for a double bottom; confirmation will come on a closing break of 2,400 for the Nasdaq and 9,250 for the NYSE. Dow Theorists will take comfort in the strength of the Dow Transports. Note how bulls maintained control as other markets reversed from their late January bounce [+DI > -DI; ADX > 20]. Stochastics are overbought which suggests a pullback to test the 50-day MA is needed to shake out the last of the weak hands. Volume in this index has certainly sided with the bulls.Volatility watchers are unlikely to see another spike into the high 30's on this decline, and those waiting for
Bullish Percents wavering 2008-02-07 04:39:25 Wednesday's selling - the third day of selling in a row - has started to pressurize the Bullish
Percents and the validity of the January bottom. The Nasdaq bottom remains healthy and looks to be part of a bullish retest of prior lows.The Dow Bullish Percents have breached their 5-day EMA (bearish), but remain in deep oversold territory. More worrying is a similar breach of the 5-day EMA for the S&P Bullish Percents, but unlike the Dow, the crossover occurred away from oversold levels. Watch for the S&P to lead a break to the downside and through January lows. Both Nasdaq and NYSE McClellan Oscillators finished in positive territory which is bullish (just!).
Semiconductors break 50-day MA (again!) 2008-03-12 05:13:30 Watching the Semiconductor Holders (SMH) with interest (over and above the long position I hold in them). Tuesday saw its second break of its 50-day MA over the past few weeks. The last one didn't hold so the question is will it do so now? Recent volume has been strong, suggesting there is more than retail trading going on here. I have redrawn a consolidation triangle, a break of which to the upside would confirm the 50-day MA crossover as bullish. If it can create some air to its 50-day MA it will have a good chance to mount a challenge of its 200-day MA once the inevitable back test appears. Trade my Stock Picks at
Copper watch... 2008-03-11 07:31:27 Last Friday's Jobs Report send bearish ripples through the market, but the real news for February wasn't the jobs report, it was the breakout in copper prices. Many will cite weakness in the dollar as the cause for the surge in commodity prices but this is too simplistic an argument. The following chart shows copper prices priced with respect to the Euro index: Why copper? As a key industrial metal for technology stocks (semiconductors in particular) it is an important measure for early economic expansion. From October through to early February demand for the metal declined as economic conditions deteriorated. However, February saw the start of a recovery over and above a simple decline in weakness for the dollar. If the copper:euro ratio can crack past 2.68 I reckon any chance of a recess Read more:Copper
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Howard, what have you done? 2008-03-11 05:24:57 The past couple of days have seen a wealth of search traffic to this site for Howard
Blackstein. Howard maintains a public list at Stockcharts.com which occasionally features in my weekly review. I did see I ranked 1st on Google for Howard (sorry Howard!)I suspect many are looking for this chart of his which is excellent:
Five months of downside in a row? 2008-03-11 05:05:00 We are nearly half-way through March and it is on course to register another down month. Even during the worse of the 2000-2002 bear market it was rare to see more than 4 down months in a row - the worst run was 6-months which marked the very bottom of the market in 2002. Even in that instance, the low created after 4-months held as support for the subsequent 2-months.Will we see 2,202 hold as support?
New lows for the McClellan Oscillator 2008-03-11 04:53:39 Both the NYSE and Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator posted new all-time lows. I have annotated with black arrows the areas where lows at similar oscillator levels were signalled in the parent indices for the past 6 months. The indication is that this is a start of a zig-zag bottom before the rally can begin, although the indices are likely within 2% of a bottom. I suspect Tuesday will see an attempted rally before bears try and push it down again Wednesday. Futures are up as of 4.30am ET. A quiet news week would support such a zig-zag bottom before a trigger 'news event' can drive the market higher.
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