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Zignals Blog 2008-04-18 11:34:45 For the next couple of months (or at least until it shifts hosts) I will be writing articles for Zignals. This is a new endeavor and I will use the opportunity to publish articles relating to financial blogging and strategy development. Fallond Stock Picks will remain focused on technical aspects of the market. I hope to get my first article on a MACD strategy test on the next Festival of Stocks this coming Monday.If there are particular queries relating to the new blog then I can be reached at declan-at-zignals.com.The new blog's feed can be found here.
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-04-19 19:02:38 A big push on Friday looks to have given bulls an edge. How did the Stockcharter's see it? Dr. Joe kept an eye on Oil as it continued its march ever higher.What do stochastics say here for the Dow? Will the next backtest reset support/resistance for this indicator?Considers the Nasdaq and S&P as contained by resistance:The Maurice Walker homily favors further gains: The daily DJIA got a break above its double bottom confirmation line of 12,767 on Friday. The pattern measures 1133 points having a target of 13,900. I expect the other daily index charts such as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and Russell 2K to follow the Dow's lead, and eventually move above their confirmation lines. Once the double bottom patterns breakout, prices will challenge the intermediate downtrends. However, the Russell 2K Read more:review
Next update Thursday 2008-04-21 16:20:36 Due to the death of my mother the next update will be on Thursday
. Thank you.
200-day MAs fast approaching. 2008-04-24 07:00:22 Bulls will have to be pleased with the last few days of action. Volume has definitely sided with them and breakout gaps for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 look to be holding.The next likely stumbling block for the averages looks to be the 200-day MAs. Any weakness should relieve overbought conditions, but not enough to close those key breakout gaps.Get the Fallond Newsletter
Top-10 (9!) stock blogs 2008-04-24 05:24:57 Thank you to Fiona King at CurrencyTrading.net for listing me as part of their top-9 stock blogs. Also thank you to all who have sent their respects by email. I very much appreciate the support.
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-04-26 19:24:22 A week which has mostly passed me by with respect to the market. So what did happen?Dr. Joe is looking to nest week's figures:Dollar looks ready to make some headway north, possibly to 77-78 level:He has given the new Stockchart's charting features a go:But there looks to be a breakout in the Dow (Joe doubts it another chart - but it looks good to me). PPO looking strong:Maurice Walker is now second ranked Stockchart public list; his weekly review
makes it one of the best. I like his analogy for this week:I've been following the a recent news story about John Darwin, who was a canoeist that faked his own death. He and his wife committed insurance fraud as he went into hiding in Panama. Darwin claims he had amnesia for the past five years. If he is found guilty he could face up to 10-years
Link reading 2008-04-29 09:33:55 Not expecting too much for today, so took a look at what's going on my feed reader:CXO Advisory takes a look at AlphaKing:In summary, testing indicates that the AlphaKing Trading Indicator may have some value for timing the Nasdaq Composite index, but the duration of the live data sample is much too short for reliable inference.Financial Week looks at blogmining. Econoblogging as a step towards a job.Vix and More on High Implied Volatility.Wall St. Warrior always has a great pre-market warm up. Not expecting much today Herb Greenberg's five lesson's learnt. (Via Maoxian via TraderMike)Why things cost $19.95 (Via Maoxian)How to monitor websites that don't have RSS feeds - handy (Via Maoxian)Bill Rempel's Seven Quantifiable Ways to Define Trend. The Average Directional Index is my favorite.
F-day 2008-04-30 04:28:26 How will the market react to whatever the Fed decides to do? Because of the tight trading for the past few days the expectation will be for a sizable move one way or the other. The 200-day MAs are a logical upside target, with the 20-day and 50-day MAs lurking below.Markets have effectively traded sideways since the January bottom and it would be good for this pattern to be put to rest. The best action for the bulls comes from the Transport index (even with all the woes in the airlines). The ADX confirms a bull trend and the "Golden Cross" between the 200-day and 50-day MAs shows a long-term bullish shift. Given this, I suspect we will see higher prices over the coming weeks even if the Fed 'disappoints'.Points [1] and [2] on the chart mark likely retracement points (based on Fibonacci and
Dow and Nasdaq 100 are indices to watch 2008-05-01 06:30:46 The Fed reversal started late in the day, although futures suggest a higher open. The Dow flashed a (bearish) gravestone doji on higher volume, with the 200-day MA lurking overhead to act as resistance. A push back to the 50-day MA looks the most favored response to relieve overbought conditions, but any close higher today would make a strong case for a 200-day MA breakout. Why? The current set-up looks picture perfect from a bear's perspective, so if it didn't play to expectation you would have to be worried (from the bear side).The Nasdaq
100 has inched its way to the 200-day MA. The gap created at 1,850 looks a logical downside target, but it wouldn't take much buying to push it above its 200-day MA.Get the Fallond Newsletter
Read more:watch
Forrester Research (FORR) 2008-05-02 07:38:11 Forrester Research
(FORR) featured in my newsletter [$] as a stock testing triangle support at the 200-day MA. A couple of days after it's initial feature the stock created a bullish hammer at triangle support. What followed was a steady rise to resistance, with the breakout completing earlier this week on the back of earnings. Yesterday followed with a successful backtest of $28.35 support. The point-n-figure chart fell a penny shy of a triple top breakout, with a current upside target of $43. Get the Fallond NewsletterTrade my Stock Picks at
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-05-04 08:33:02 Running a little late on everything this weekend. The MSFT-YHOO fun and games may have some dampening influence on proceedings for Monday, but how went the week?
Dr. Joe is watching daily machinations:
Although the dollar is attempting a run of strength (which will hurt gold prices); oil looks to have found a point of strength:
He has called a breakout in the Dow:
Ted Burge is watching the Q's. A positive test of support?
The point-n-figure chart is looking for $53.59 off the May 1st Ascending Triple Top Breakout:
Read more:review
Zignals blog post 2008-05-06 07:22:30 Running tight for time, but I do have a strategy test post for on-balance-volume up on the Zignals blog.As for the markets, the Dow has perhaps the most interest given the struggles at its 200-day MA.Can it follow the lead of the Nasdaq 100? Although it may have its own problems given the 'Hanging Man' just after its 200-day MA break.Both indices show healthy bull trends as measured by ADX. Get the Fallond Newsletter
Bullish Percents getting a little toasty 2008-05-07 02:56:59 Although not of immediate concern, some of the bullish percents are about to enter bear market (but not bull market) top territory. If January lows represent the start of a bear market then these breadth indicators should top soon. If the current rally is a continuation of the cyclical bull market then there is room for another 15-20% of gain (perhaps as much as 50% for the Nasdaq Bullish
Percents). How this impacts on the market remains to be seen, but the likely outcome would be a negative divergence between breadth indicators and the market; indices make new highs as bullish percents fall. Time will tell.I'm traveling to D.C. so there will be no update tomorrow. INS appointment Friday. Get the Fallond Newsletter
Read more:little
Stockcharts.com Weekly Review 2008-05-12 04:09:52 May as well try and get a review post up before Monday's open. Feeling very sleepy... 2 hrs sleep on a red-eye is not good for the soul.Dr. Joe raises the issue of "Agflation". Interesting thought - but I think commodities have peaked for this stage of the bull cycle, although the best may yet be to come. Joe is looking at a potential breakout for oil companies - but commodity-based stocks tend to Read more:Weekly
Next update next week 2008-05-10 19:58:02 Back from Washington D.C. next week - update then.
What holds for Copper prices? 2008-05-13 05:28:35 What goes for copper, goes for technology stocks (and the market as a whole). After what looked to be a triple top for the commodity in 2007, the ever weakening dollar helped push an upside breakout of $375. Broadening wedges are hard to spot and if this is what's at play then a move back to $250 would appear the best case for the metal.However, as long as $375 holds
then a run-of-the-mill breakou Read more:Copper
Feedback request: Alerts 2008-05-13 05:28:07 I'm looking for a quick-and-dirty feedback request for market alerts. "Market Alerts" encompass price alerts (e.g. stock price alerts), stock fundamentals (e.g. P/E drops to 10), portfolio alerts (e.g. a stock holding in my portfolio drops by $200). Opinion Polls & Market ResearchUse the comments section to add your wishlist for market alerts (type, frequency, subject matter, etc.... Read more:Feedback
Dow top? 2008-05-15 08:53:51 The Dow bullish percents look to indicate a top in the short term. I am watching Fibonacci retracements, which based on prior 'sell' triggers and Fibonacci interceptions suggest downside targets of 12,583 or 12,296. Markets off to a relatively quiet start. Opinion Polls & Market ResearchGet the Fallond NewsletterDeclan Fallon is contributing to the development of stock alerts, stock
Where next? 2008-05-15 08:43:26 At the start of February after breadth indicators reached all-time lows I gave a guesstimate as to what the S&P would do over the coming months. Other than the larger than expected dip in March it has remained relatively ontrack:But where does the market go next?S&P Breadth indicators are getting a little toasty which favors some modicum of weakness over the coming weeks. This would shake out the
Tech is where the fun is. 2008-05-16 07:08:23 I had noted back in early December how the semiconductor index was due a bounce following some heavy overselling. It responded by falling even further to January lows, but was able to stabilize and rally back to its 200-day MA. During the run to the 200-day MA it has barely paused for breath, and bullish trend strength has been steadily increasing [+DI > -DI; ADX at 30 and rising].This boundless e
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-05-17 18:43:04 Another week for the Stockcharters to take a look at the market.Richard Crockett has taken a (very) similar route to me on the bullish percents:But does have a nice bull/bear chart for the S&P:Dr. Joe remains bullish on Agriculture:The US Dept of AGRICULTURE reported the 'Corn Harvest' is 7% lower than last year. They estimate the price of corn will go up another 30% this year. The cost of 'Feed' Read more:review
Posting issues 2008-05-21 05:03:57 A frustrating day using Blogger. Looks like third party ISP users are getting the shaft with Blogger's FTP feature. Usually Blogger are fairly good at correcting these issues but this one has dragged - am I the only one to suffer? I have a free stock pick up on my parent site. If you are looking for the free stock picks this is the best place to start. I don't post stocks on a regular basis, altho Read more:Posting
Transports vertigo? 2008-05-21 04:32:23 On my parent website I have focused more on the main lead markets with the charts hosted by Stockcharts.com. The Dow theorists will want to take a look at the Transport Index. Monday saw a large inverse (bearish) hammer on heavy volume. Contributing to the toppy look was the stochastic 'sell' at overbought conditions and the extended nature of bullish trend strength.I have redrawn Fib retracements
New KIVA loans 2008-05-23 05:05:50 I have a couple more Subscriber payments to allocate to new KIVA loans, but first I want to re-loan some earlier payments. First loan goes to Adama Hagbegno, a baker in Togo. Born on 31 December 1975 in Amégnran, Mr. Adama HAGBEGNO is married and has eight (8) children. His bakery is his source of income, and is highly sought after by many women because he is the sole breadmaker in his area. This
Important test for the Nasdaq 2008-05-22 04:26:35 Four days ago I was talking about the break of the 200-day MA on strong money flow. Today it's about a test of March-April support with money flow shrinking fast.When the index created the second reaction low in April it coincided (somewhat) with a test of the 50-day MA. Another test of this average would see a new trendline develop, but it is by no means certain.The other point of interest has be Read more:Nasdaq
StockCharts.com Weekly review 2008-05-26 05:27:45 With the long weekend in play there wasn't much updating activity amongst the Stockcharters, but it was a busy week for the market.Dr. Joe was sick during the week, so no update from him. His oil watch is interesting because it looks like there is a bull trap for Exxon Mobil (XOM):Maurice Walker is looking for the Dark Cloud Pattern in oil to bear fruit.Another great epic from Maurice, although I Read more:Weekly
, review
Bullish Percents all in the red - intermediate down trend in play 2008-05-28 05:49:19 May 21st saw the bullish percents of the Nasdaq and S&P follow that of the Dow with a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA. The S&P compounded the loss with a break of rising support connected by March-April dips using closing price. Overall, these breadth indicators haven't fully reached typical tops for either a bull or bear market. If the cyclical bull market is still in play - which I don't think it Read more:Bullish
Essential Reading 2008-05-29 07:07:45 The market didn't do a whole lot yesterday, so I took a look at what is going on in the blogosphere.(Via TraderMike): Dr.Duru has some worrying analysis on the financials, GE and others. The GE chart looks real scary if your bullish the market.HeadlineCharts has gone the other direction and is watching for a bullish head-and-shoulder reversal in the XLF; $24 support is key in this regard. Dug thi Read more:Essential
, Reading
Zignals: Building Blog Relationships 2008-05-29 04:49:30 I have my latest post based on Problogger's 12 Tools and Techniques for BuildingRelationships
with Other Bloggers up on the Zignals Blog.-blog-relationships.htmlDr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website
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