Owner: Fallond Stock Picks URL:http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com Join Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2008 08:21:43 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: Online financial market commentary and stock picks. Participants in Stock Market competitions get my newsletter free - enquire within. Site statistics:Click here
Futures up - good or bad? 2008-03-14 08:17:57 A likely gap up from the open will leave bulls sweating the first 30-minutes of trading - hoping the inevitable fade won't produce a rout. The 20-day MAs need to be broken soon if this short term bounce in the market doesn't turn out to be just that.
Tech watch 2008-03-13 07:05:41 With the indices struggling to break through their 20-day MAs, let alone the 50-day MAs, there are signs of a recovery in some leading Tech stocks.Sample list: GOOG, AAPL, CSCO, BIDU, MSFT, INTC, ORCL, AMAT, TXN, HPQStocks above 20-day MA (80%): Apple (AAPL), Cisco (CSCO), Baidu (BIDU), Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Oracle (ORCL), Applied Material (AMAT), Hewlett Packard (HPQ)Stocks above 50-day MA (40%): Cisco (CSCO), Intel (INTC), Applied Materials (AMAT), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)Stocks with a 20-day MA > 50-day MA (20%): Applied Materials (AMAT), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)Not the worst spread of strength for a weak market. Of the two intermediate bull trenders (AMAT and HPQ), Applied Materials (AMAT) has the best outlook going forward. Hewlett-Packard is struggling to hold its 200-day MA/40-w Read more:watch
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-03-15 19:57:56 The week which started as a viral infection is now an ear infection, so this week's review
may be brief.George Zimmerman has a good overlay showing the NYSE Bullish Percent Index and the S&P. Compare the 2002 and 2008 lows and decide whether you should be bullish or bearish?Joe Reed is looking for strong bottom in the Retail Index:And sees bigger problems for the Bank Index:The Nasdaq still ranks as a breakdown on the weekly chart:Maurice Walker has his weekly essay:Who Let The Bears Out Of Their Cage Today? Bear Stearns!The genie is still in the bottle according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released today. Headline inflation declined by .3 % in February to an annualized 4.0 %, from the previous 4.3 % recorded in January. There was a decline in the annualized core rate of
First Scratchback Purchase 2008-03-19 11:31:38 I would like to thank Larry of MrSwing.com for the first purchase of my Scratchback link service. As is customary, I have allocated his payment to the Mashari Fahari Yetu Group on KIVA.org. This brings the number of KIVA loans made to 48.Mashari H. Rutindi, age 27, is single and has two children (ages 4 and 1). She has a pharmacy which she began 4 years ago. She works from 8.30 am to 9pm daily and is able to make a monthly profit of about US$173.In the past, Mashari has taken out one previous loan with Tujijenge Tanzania to buy more medicine. She hopes for a new loan to increase the size of her business and to start selling cosmetics. Mashari will share this loan with her subgroup members dealing in selling pharmacy, clothes and cosmetics.In the picture Mashari is 2nd from left in a green Read more:First
, Purchase
Assoc Estates Realty Corp 2008-03-19 04:52:54 Associated EstatesRealty
Corp (AEC) was one of only three picks on my breakout scan. The Residential REIT pays out 6.4% in yield, but the interest here were the multiple on-balance-volume breakouts, which eventually led to Tuesday's break of price resistance. There is the issue of overhead resistance at the 200-day MA ($11.95), but the intermediate trend is bullish (20-day > 50-day MAs). Technicals all sit on the bull side. The point-n-figure chart is neutral for a price pattern; although a move to $11.50 would trigger a breakout. The point-n-figure chart has no new price target, although resistance at $16 can be used as an alternative target. Trade my Stock Picks at
Volatility and the 2000 top 2008-03-18 06:42:28 I took a look at the 2000 top for the S&P and compared how volatility from then compared to now. During the 2000 peak there were four small sub-30 micropeaks, a sharp drop, then a rally to 35 which was associated with the cliff fall for the early part of the 2001 decline in the S&P. Monday's peak above the recent triple top may precede such a decline, although breadth indicators do suggest otherwise (i.e. this will shape into a double bottom). However, it has been a while since the VIX has seen a spike to 45. It would be hard to argue against another one happening soon, which would mean more pain for the markets.The Fed may bring some short term welcome relief, but when the guts of next rally are done we could have the kind of setup where a VIX spike to 45 would be favored. Perhaps Septemb Read more:Volatility
What you should be reading for today 2008-03-18 05:40:24 Looks like St. Paddy's day was not one for Bear Stearns (or its employees) to celebrate. The subsequent action in the markets reflected the panic. Bill has an excellent chart showing the relationship between the VIX and 10-year Treasury Yield. This ratio is at levels last seen in the 2002/2003 bottomTraderMike has his usual succinct summary. He is watching 2,200 closely in the Nasdaq. Market reaction to Fed decision will decide whether we have support or resistance. Will the Fed cut by a full 1%? Will Markets view it as the needed cure? Or a panic reaction to the current state of affairs? It sounds like a lot to me - but what do I know.Barry has Lehmans on B.S. watch.Steven Smith at TheStreet.com noted heavy option trading volume in B.S. over the course of the last couple of weeks.Kevin's
Bullish Percents sing from the same hymn sheet 2008-03-20 07:31:20 Yesterday's losses weren't enough to prevent a bullish cross of the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Bullish
Percents. This follows earlier crosses for the S&P and Dow bullish percents.What is clear from these charts are the bullish divergences between January and current lows for the bullish percents with respect to the parent indices. Basically, more stocks are on point-n-figure buy signals now than back in January, even with the indices making new lower closing lows. What is important going forward will be the need to break declining (closing) resistance initiated in January for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq. The Nasdaq looks best placed to challenge, although the Dow is closest to the major moving averages (20-day and 50-day MAs). Thursday probably won't reveal too much going into the long weekend, Read more:sheet
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-03-22 15:25:17 The long weekend saw a spate of buying, but can it continue into next week? The Stockcharters comment.Dr. Joe sees a correction in the Euro with room to run to the downside:His weekly summary notes an S&P downgrade for the brokerages:Too early to say what impact that will have on the futures. On this chart there looks to be a 'Buy' for the Dow:Ted Burge has the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) between support and resistance, although a rising trendline has been breached to the downside:The point-n-figure chart for the Qs has a target of $48.43. It would take a drop to $40.89 to negate that:However, interesting breakout in the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF). Note target of $35, part of Thursday's Triple Top Breakout:On the other hand, the Gold Trust Shares (GLD) has a downward target of $84 Read more:review
Yen and the S&P 2008-03-26 05:34:33 The relationship between the Yen and the S&P and the relevance of the "Yen Carry trade" has been described expertly by the ETF expert From a technical perspective, spikes in the relationship between the Yen and S&P mark bullish reversals for the S&P. But the degree of the spike may indicate the strength of this bottom. The current spike is of comparable measure to spikes of late 1998 and 2001, but didn't reach the extremes of late 2002 and early 2003. If markets are in the early stages of a cyclical bear market within a secular bear market, then the possible outcome for the current bottom would favor the 2001 scenario over the 1998 one. If this was the case the next rally could take the market back to 1,450 (prior price congestion) before turning down towards the next support level at 1,15
Transports break past 200-day MA and broadening wedge resistance 2008-03-25 05:15:37 The core indices scrambled above their 50-day MAs (or came close to doing so), but one leader of economic activity, the transports, actually cleared its 200-day MA and broadening wedge resistance. A new bullish trend has yet to establish given the ADX knocks aroud 15, but if the 200-day MA can hold it won't be long before a new bull rally is confirmed. The point-n-figure chart shows a triggered Bullish Catapult Breakout from Monday with a target of 5,250. But the real challenge will come on a push to 5,400 resistance.So will the Dow clear its (developing) bullish ascending triangle, or is another trip to support needed? Going by the Transports a straight breakout would be favored. Going by pattern development - another trip to support (and a better opportunity to buy) would make for a str
Bargain basement US stock prices for Euro earners 2008-03-28 06:33:53 Is there value for foreign investment in US markets? Given I now enjoy the benefits of earning in Euros I can look at my next trip to the U.S. (and corresponding shopping!) with the eagerness of someone getting $1.58 for each Euro I convert. Or this can be put another way, I can get 58% more U.S. company stock than someone paying for that same stock in hard earned dollars. So to buy Apple (AAPL) in Euros would cost me 88.76 euros (a veritable bargain), or I could get Google Inc (GOOG) at 281.06 euros, and maybe an Apple 32GB iTouch at a cool 300 euros. This relationship is perhaps best represented by pricing the S&P in Euros. In Euros, stocks are trading at levels last seen of late 1998, and very close to the lows of 2003. It may take a year for a discernable market rally and/or rising dol Read more:Bargain
Essential Reading 2008-03-28 05:23:08 Yesterday's consolidation didn't change anything on the broader picture. Monday's bullish gains still hold as dominant until proven otherwise. Today's post looks at what is going around the Blogosphere.Timothy Sykes offers his usual low key assessment on Yahoo!s decision to removed date/time stamps from its posts. I cannot agree more with him... dumbasses. Maybe this is a strategy to scare off Microsoft.One of my favorite morning stop-offs is Maoxian's del.icio.us links.Abnormal Returns is my first port of call to get a working list of articles to read for the day. TraderMike is my second, although he is on vacation. And Charles Kirk when he publishes his linkfest (also on vacation). 24/7 WallStreet hvae the 25 most valuable blogs. Wouldn't mind a slice of that pie, although somewhat depre Read more:Essential
, Reading
Google needs to learn some SEO! 2008-03-27 09:15:56 *** Update *** Looks like Yahoo have reversed that decision. Date and time stamps are back. But Google
still has its problems. *** ***With Yahoo screwing up with one of its better features (finance pages) you would think Google could step into the breach and steer people their way. Unfortunately, Google has its own niconpoops in charge of Google finance:D'oh!
Read more:learn
, SEO
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-03-29 19:35:59 Dr. Joe starts with his weekly review
:Interesting to see a new high in the FXE, but no confirmation with a new low in the USD? Bullish divergence for the dollar?:Has Health Care hit support? A fairly ragged looking chart. Ted Burge cast his eye on the NYSE's 20-day and 50-day MAs. Horizontal support at 8,671 also within range:Maurice Walker has no weekly commentary, but his Streettracks Gold Tr (GLD) nicely shows the breakdown of one support level, but the presence of a stronger one nearby. Double top from here anyone?His Weekly Major Trendline is perhaps the best entry point for bulls:He has a good piece on the ADX: The acclaimed author, Dr. Alexander Elder of Trading For A Living fame, recommends taking a trade once both the +DI and ADX lines are above the -DI line. This would trigger a
Market Breakout 2008-04-02 04:34:55 Kevin over at Kevin's Market
Blog said it best on his Dow Theory watch; Dow followed Transports higher.While the Semiconductors did their bit to support the Nasdaq 100 with a breakout of their own: But there is the question as to what volatility (and fear) will do now there is a test of the 200-day MA? Will profit takers emerge? Or will the 200-day MA turn from support into resistance, thus supporting a more substantial rally than previous corrections in this indicator have given?
Read more:Breakout
Transports manage successful back test 2008-04-01 03:59:11 Monday's quiet trading did turn up one key positive; the back test of former resistance-turned support of the Dow Jones Transportation Average ($TRAN). The move was accompanied with a bullish hammer on higher volume, giving two more ticks in the bull column. Stochastics are on a 'sell' from overbought levels, so it could take a test of the 50-day MA to work a more solid bounce and reset stochastics. This strength should reflect itself in the Dow index with a break of January-April resistance. Positive money flow suggests accumulation:Can the semiconductor index be a proxy for the Tech averages? The semiconductor index is loitering around its 50-day MA having traded sideways since January. The relative difference between the 50-day and 200-day MAs has narrowed from its max 20% deficit sug
New KIVA loans: 50 reached!!! 2008-04-04 06:00:35 Another round of payoffs have freed up some funds for new loans from prior subscriber contributions. I have two new loans to make to bring the total of loans offered to 50! You can see where this money has been allocated and it is all thanks to the support of my subscribers.The first loan is to the Stage Hera Kende Self-Help GroupSolomon has been in the business of buying second-hand clothing in bulk and retailing the same. He is married with 4 children who are all school-going. He buys the clothes in bulk from Nairobi and transports them to Kisumu for retailing. He has been in this business for over 5 years now. One of his primary motivations for choosing this business is because of the readily available market due to the high poverty levels in Kisumu town. He buys his stock every 2 weeks
JAKKS Pacific 2008-04-04 05:17:59 JAKKS Pacific
(JAKK) was a featured newsletter pick for February 20th [$]. The stock since shaped a solid looking cup-and-handle pattern with rising accumulation on the back of a fresh MACD trigger 'buy' (well above the bullish zero line). The original stop of $24.89 can be raised to about $27.16, although those looking to allow a little more room can allow for a stop just below the lows of the handle at $26.The push to $29 was enough to trigger a Triple Top Breakout on February 21st in the point-n-figure chart which reversed the previously bearish target of $13 to the bullish $46. A projected base target is closer to $42. On the Options side, January 09 $15 strikes trade from $14.80 from the Ask, although there is not much in the way of open interest. Trade my Stock Picks at
Stockcharts.com weekly review 2008-04-06 09:08:15 A good week for bulls. How did the Stockcharters see it?Dr. Joe hints at possible trouble ahead:DURING an ELECTION YEAR the PRESIDENT'S PARTY does not want to go into an election with a weak economy. It looks bad, never-the-less, it is Here Now. So, the FED RES keeps slapping on 'Band Aids' to stop the bleeding. Yes, the market is weak, but at least it hasn't Crashed... YET. How long the FED RES 'C.P.R.' will continue to resuscitate this wounded market is questionable, but I think they're probably running out of bandages. (3-14-08 dr.joe)Remember, a RECESSION is all about TIGHT MONEY. If that's true, we're definately there now. But the Yield Curve has Not Inverted yet, which not always, but usually happens. Now here's the kicker... *A Recession starts when we have TWO STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF Read more:review
Mind the Gap 2008-04-08 07:55:41 The intermediate time frame looks good for the markets with Bullish Percents on a tear:But the short term is overbought and itching for a confirmation test of the breakout gap and/or 50-day MAs:Futures favor a weak open, so this could be impetus bears need to work the market lower. Trade my Stock Picks at
Nasdaq 200-day MA vs 50-day MAs 2008-04-09 06:35:02 The relationship between the number of stocks trading above the 200-day and 50-day MAs describes the internal health of an index. It is not an ideal indicator, with obvious spikes not necessarily correlating to inflections in the market. This is especially true for spike highs where the number of stocks trading above the 200-day MA is greater the number above the 50-day MA - a situation associated with an overbought market. It is not uncommon to see such spikes occur during a well established decline (and in the case of 2002 spike highs, near the end of the decline). The ratio smooths into a more rounded bottom when the number of stocks above the 50-day MA is greater than the number above the 200-day MA. This situation is a little more helpful in pin-pointing bottoms, especially when the r Read more:Nasdaq
Modest weakness in Bullish Percents 2008-04-11 07:01:18 There is a sense things are getting a little toppy in the Bullish
Percents. The S&P Bullish Percents have moved to a 'Sell' trigger at a resistance level marked by December highs. Unlike December, the S&P is above its 50-day MA, so it may simply be a blip on the road to higher levels. But it is a warning sign: Bullish Percents for the Dow and Nasdaq were flat and haven't yet marked future weakness
.
Read more:Modest
Road Works Ahead: Gap test 2008-04-11 05:35:17 Thanks to TraderMike for the link-love. With Tech and Small caps getting hit with above average selling, there is an indication Large caps will follow suit; the three day sequence of lower highs and lower lows - albeit on tight trading - tends to favor a break to the downside. As noted by TraderMike, the 50-day MAs will be key support across the board. Certainly market breadth indicators are calling for a breather in the near term.The best example of a (short term) overbought breadth indicator is the S&P Bullish Percent. Look for a push to 1,315-1,335 in the S&P:
Read more:Works
Stockcharts Weekly Review 2008-04-14 04:09:42 A bit late on this, but before Monday's open here is the weekly Stockcharts.com review.Dr. Joe has his Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) prominent. What is interesting from this chart is the consolidation in play for the Dollar / Euro Trust. Should the dollar break down it will provide a boost for Gold, hurt the market and be business as ususal. However, should the dollar counter break higher it would set the cat amongst the bear pigeons. If this was to happen look for a sharp one-day gain, and look for this to happen real soon:Joe's Dow Stochastics shows a well marked top with plenty of room before a bottom is reached:Once again - keep an eye on Health Care. It looks like May will be the month it finds it bottom:Ted Burge is watching the financials; support at $24.15 Although the point-n- Read more:Weekly
Keep an eye on those Transports 2008-04-15 03:51:03 The Transport sector (and therefore the outlook for the economy as a whole) didn't have it easy over the past few days. UPS disappointment was enough to break the low volatility slumber markets had enjoyed for the best part of a week. However, the Dow Jones Transportation Average continues to hold firm at its 200-day MA with the 50-day MA on course to trigger a "Golden Cross" - a significant long term bullish signal. How this gets reflected in the Dow is more difficult to predict. The UPS related sell off brought the index back inside its triangle consolidation. There is still plenty of room for a move back to consolidation support which should be viewed as bullish - no doubt bears will see this as a confirmation of their position, but they will be wrong unless March lows break. So bulls c
Google Stock Screen 2008-04-16 06:02:59 I took the GoogleStock
Screener for a test drive. It's got a very plain, simple interface compared to that of MSN's Advanced screener, but lacks some of MSN's (excellent) functionality. One thing I do like about Google's is that there is a neat graphic showing the distribution of stocks across the various parameter settings.I wanted to look for stocks which were showing discounts in dividend yield. I like to be getting something back from the stock while I hold for the long term so screening using yield as a filter is a good place to start. The idea is to buy 'decent' stocks to take advantage of oversold market breath indicators when such stocks should be trading at a 'discount'. I'm not looking for the next high flyer as momentum plays tend to emerge 1-2 months after a bottom is in place
New KIVA loans 2008-04-18 06:19:44 The latest KIVA loans come courtesy of first month subscription payments from M. Siegel and J. Mercer. If you are interested in contributing please subscribe to my newsletter using the [Subscribe] button under the header.Allow 24 hours to set up site access and add your name to the email distribution list.The first loan goes to Amidu Jalloh:Amidu is 54 years old and married, with 19 children. He is an accomplished and experienced tailor, but he lacks the capital to purchase enough supplies to allow him to meet customer demand. He learned tailoring 10 years ago and has been sewing clothes ever since, especially for women in Makup Bana village. His service is very vital and saves women from travelling long distances to Makeni town to seek sewing services. Amidu would like to expand his busin
Exponent (EXPO) 2008-04-18 05:27:17 I had featured Exponent (EXPO) in early March. The past three days have created what looks to be a short term blow-off top and is reason enough to take some money off the table. Up 20% from March.Trade my Stock Picks at
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