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Stick With Strength in this Market
2008-03-07 17:58:16
Face it, the bear market is here and it's going to stay for a while. Be smart with your investments.If you're holding on to a bunch of losing investments, it's not too late to start managing risk.If you're looking for new bullish ideas, please stick with relative strength.Stocks like Potash (POT) can still be bought. POT will go higher and the drop today of about $4 was yet another opportunity to get long this wonderful stock.Also, keep a close watch on Moody's (MCO) next week. MCO is due for another quick pop higher of 10 percent, or more. Notice that it traded well this morning, pulled back, then bounced higher into the close to finish the day flat. Meanwhile, the Dow Industrials shed another 150. That's relative strength on the part of MCO!
Read more: Market , Stick

Moody's (MCO) is Good for a Trade
2008-03-07 09:52:00
We first got bullish on Moody 's (MCO) in mid-February, after it confirmed a head and shoulders. The head and shoulders is a bottom, or bullish reversal, pattern that often leads to big rallies. In the case of MCO, the pattern resulted in a quick $4 move higher.The stock has since pulled back with the broader market, but hasn't broken short-term support. MCO can be bought with a super tight stop to manage risk in the event the broader market continues lower.On the other hand, a stabilization in stocks today and small rebound next week could pave the way for another 10%-plus move higher in MCO.
Read more: Trade

POT Ready to Pop Higher From Bull Flag
2008-03-06 10:04:18
Potash (POT) was one of our favorite stocks in 2007. It's one of our favorites again this year.Amazingly, POT is holding up rather well in this market climate. So well, in fact, that the stock is about ready to breakout from another bull flag.There have been several bull flags in POT over the last 12 months. All have worked out rather well. The last one broke at $140, and although some volatility followed, POT's a lot higher today than it was back then.Confirm this most recent bull flag with an advance past $165. Or, if you're nervous about the broader market, wait for POT to pullback. This is a stock that can be bought on the dips.
Read more: Higher

Stick With Relative Strength When Buying Stocks
2008-03-05 09:32:57
We're seeing the first rise in stock prices this morning in about a week. The green on the screen might be tempting to start buying, but I caution you to do so selectively.Focus on the stocks that are holding up in this market climate when considering new bullish positions. Stick with that stocks that are trading near their 52-week highs.A great example is Converted Organics (COIN). This is a stock we first got bullish on down around $10. It's up by more than 50 percent since than and has a lot more room to run. COIN recently broke out from its bullish triangle and wedge.AKSteel Holding (AKS) is another example of a stock that is holding up really well. It's breaking from a bull flag this morning, reaching up to a new 52-week high. This is another stock that could trend higher for the next
Read more: Buying , Relative , Stocks , When Buying

S&P 500 About to Break Short-term Support
2008-03-04 10:36:50
Watch the 1310 level in the S&P 500 ($SPX) today. A breakdown below 1310 will confirm the recent rollover in the index and most likely lead to at least a retest of the January lows.The January low is at 1270, so the SPX could have at least another 40 points of downside. A successful retest could lead to a great buying opportunity. Alternatively, a failure at 1270 and a continuation of the bear market could ultimately take the market much lower.Either way, we'll observe the price action when the SPX gets there. In the meantime, observe how the SPX trades near 1310 today.
Read more: Break , Short , Support

Sagging Dollar Yields Huge Moves in the Market
2008-03-03 10:57:02
The explosive moves we've been seeing in oil and gold are, in part, due to the dropping dollar. Keep close watch of the greenback if you're trading these, and other, commodities.An easy way to track the greenback is through one of the currency share trusts. Several of these trusts exist, pitting the dollar against one foreign currency or another. Here are some of the more popular:FXE - Euro vs. U.S. dollarFXB - Pound vs. U.S. dollarFXC - Canadian dollar vs. U.S. dollarFXY - Yen vs. U.S. dollarIf these currency trusts are trending higher, then it means the dollar is getting weaker. A weaker dollar will help oil and gold continue higher.Of the four currency trusts above, perhaps the FXY is the most important. There's a strong correlation between a rising FXY and falling S&P 500. Quite si
Read more: Dollar , Market

Stocks on the Brink of a Major Technical Breakdown
2008-02-29 11:12:03
Just a few days ago I was looking for a breakout in the S&P 500 ($SPX) from a short-term triangle. Now, the SPX is on the verge of breaking down from the triangle.In setting up the triangle, I pointed out that the SPX had to get above 1400 to confirm a breakout attempt. The index failed well short of 1400.While the whipsaws are unfolding in stocks, keep close watch on the Japanese yen. Yesterday's post about the yen proved prescient in predicting today's drop in stocks.Further upside in the yen could cause the SPX to breakdown below the triangle. A breakdown will be confirmed with if the SPX drops below 1310. You might use this level as an action point an wait until it's broken before pressing any bearish bets. With the way the market has whipped around this week, it mak
Read more: Brink , Major , Stocks , Technical

Following Up on Two Recent Winners: COIN and DBC
2008-02-27 10:54:27
The market is in decent shape after yesterday's big rally. An advance in the S&P 500 past 1400 might pave the way to another leg higher, but be careful about chasing momentum right now.Converted Organics (COIN) is a stock we turned bullish on earlier in the month, when it was trading at $10.18. At the time, the stock was tracing a bullish triangle. It subsequently broke the triangle and ran to above $14 yesterday. This was a high in January, making the $14 level a potential double top. The stock will most likely break the double in time, but it may consolidate its most recent gains over the short-term. We still like it long-term, but think there will be better entry opportunities in the coming weeks.We've been pounding the table on the DB Commodities Index Tracking Fund (DBC). Commodit
Read more: Following , Recent , Winners

Mapping Out the Next Move in the Market
2008-02-26 10:27:02
We've been following the unfolding triangle in the broader market with great interest. The direction of the breakout from the triangle will influence the trend of stock prices this spring.We've been using the S&P 500 ($SPX) to map out the triangle. The SPX was on the brink of a breakdown a few days ago, but yesterday's big rally put the index into a position from which it might breakout, to the upside.Yesterday's rally put the SPX above the upper-end of the triangle, but there's a lot of overhead resistance to work through. Most importantly, the SPX faces a big hurdle at the descending trend line. It's right at 1380. A break above 1380 needs to be confirmed by a move above 1400.Look to get long stocks if the aforementioned sequence of events unfolds. You might start entering some of th
Read more: Mapping , Market

2 Actionable Price Patterns for Monday
2008-02-25 09:43:24
It's definitely a stock picker's market. While the broader market continues to coil and we wait for a breakout from the big triangles, it makes sense to pick your spots carefully.China Medical Technologies (CMED) is one bullish spot that is worth a closer look. The stock is breaking out today above the two month old bullish wedge.Look for a retest of previous resistance, now support, at the $54 level in the coming days.Crocs (CROX) has seen it's better days. The stock is breaking down from a bearish flag and should see $20 pretty soon.CROX is a heavily shorted stock with about 23 percent of the float sold short. High levels of short interest can sometimes be a contrarian indication. But in the case of CROX, I think the high short interest confirms the bearish trend in the stock.
Read more: Monday , Patterns

Market Poised for a Big Breakout from Triangle
2008-02-22 07:13:15
The broader market, as defined by the S&P 500 ($SPX), is poised for a big breakout. Whether it's up or down remains to be seen.The triangle pattern in the S&P 500, which we first highlighted a few days ago, almost broke to the upside yesterday. But the big sell-off put the market right back down to the lower-end of the recent range.A level to watch early today is the 1335 mark. A breakdown below 1335 might start the process of a bigger breakdown from the triangle. Confirmation of a breakdown from the triangle will come at 1315, so there are two potential action points to be monitoring.Use the S&P, and its price action, as a proxy for the stocks you're watching. Tighten up stops on long positions and look to get short weak stocks if the S&P breaks down today.A few bearish id
Read more: Breakout , Market

Gold Breaks Out From Bullish Triangle
2008-02-21 09:27:54
I'm proud that we've been so bullish on gold over the past six months. We've been pounding the table and it's proven to be a great trade.We first wrote about gold in this post. We've come a long way since then with spot gold trading near $950 an ounce.Look to the streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) to trade gold. It's an equity-like exchange traded fund (ETF) that is backed by the physical metal. It's like owning gold but through a stock-like vehicle.The GLD and, indeed, the spot market are breaking out from a short-term bullish triangle. It's a perfectly symmetrical bullish triangle.Look for the triangle to lead spot GOLD to above $1,000 an ounce!
Read more: Bullish

A Gigantic Triangle Takes Shape in the S&P 500
2008-02-20 09:29:41
The S&P 500 ($SPX) has traded in a pattern of higher lows and lower highs since mid-January. The price action is, by definition, a triangle. This particular triangle has a bearish bias to it.The probabilities favor a break to the downside because of the existing downward trend in the market. But you might trade the pattern either way.The apex of the triangle is around 1350. If the $SPX breaks down, target 1280 in the short-term and see how the market behaves from there. If the $SPX holds, it might be viewed as a successful re-test, paving the way to a sustainable rally. Alternatively, a breakout to the upside will quickly encounter resistance at 1400. After that, 1425 to 1450 might serve as a short-term bullish target. But be quick to take profits in bullish positions.Use the $SPX
Read more: Shape

Two Recent Winners Have More Room to Run Higher
2008-02-19 09:12:02
This is definitely a stock picker's market. Finding winners and letting them run is key.We found a couple of big winners over the last few weeks, two of which we'll revisit today.The first is Cleveland Cliffs (CLF). We first got bullish on the stock when it was trading around $97. It's up by about $27 since then, but might move even higher after the breakout today from the short-term bullish flag.The second stock we're going to revisit today is the DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund (DBC). This is a basket of companies in the commodities business.We liked the DBC when it broke out from a short-term bull flag at $32.40. But the DBC might be a little extended at current levels, so wait for the next consolidation before jumping onto this strong bullish trend.
Read more: Higher , Recent , Winners

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Breaking Out of Bull Flag
2008-03-12 10:07:42
The energy sector is quite strong with oil prices in record territory. But it's not just oil companies that are striking it rich. The rise in energy prices is across the board and includes natural gas.Natty gas is screaming higher and one of the best stocks to play the trend with is Chesapeake Energy (CHK). The stock is breaking out today from a very short-term bull flag. The breakout puts CHK at a new 52-week high. Look for CHK to continue running higher over the next few months.
Read more: Breaking

Housing Stocks (XHB) Could Rebound Higher
2008-03-11 12:16:43
The Fed jumped in this morning in an attempt to halt the slide in the market. It's yet another bailout plan aimed at stabilizing the mortgage market.It's unlikely that the Fed's latest move will have a lasting impact, but in the short-term it might serve as a catalyst for a rally. I'm talking about a rally that lasts more than just one day.Curiously, among the various groups of the market, one that is holding up quite well is the homebuilder sector. It's strange because the residential real estate market is crumbling, yet the homebuilders aren't hitting new lows.In fact, the S&P Homebuilders Index (XHB) is trading well above its January lows. Moreover, it's formed a head and shoulders bottom over the last four months. Keep a close watch on this ETF, which is a basket of home build
Read more: Higher , Housing , Rebound , Stocks

Ag Boom About to Take a Breather (MON and MOO)
2008-03-10 08:51:11
The farming business is on fire thanks to the booming prices of commodities. The agriculture sector has far outpaced the broader market so far this year.The long-term trend in ag has bucked the general weakness in the broader market. But even the agriculture stocks are looking a little weak. I'm seeing a lot of toppy price action across the space.Take a look at Monsanto (MON), one of the best in the group. MON traced a lower high at $120 from which it recently rolled over. A breakdown below $95 will lead to a deeper pullback.Look at the chart for the Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) ETF. MOO is a diversified group of companies operating in the ag business. The ETF recently topped out near $60, forming a double top over the two months between January and February.I'm still extremely bullis
Read more: Breather

China Stock Bubble Continues to Unwind
2008-03-14 11:42:32
It doesn't seem too long ago that Chinese stocks were all the rage. Remember when you could buy Baidu (BIDU) every week and it would always go up?Those days are long gone. Obviously the bear market in the U.S. has popped the Chinese stock bubble. The China 25 iShares (FXI) is off by about 41 percent from the peak last fall. But there's more downside to come.Look at the breakdown in the FXI today. It's a classic break from a bear flag. Next stop could be down around $110 to $115. 
Read more: Bubble , Stock

CHK Is Breaking Out in a Big Way
2008-03-13 11:43:53
Look at Chesepeake Energy (CHK) run! The stock is confirming its bull flag today.This is a stock to watch going into the summer. CHK is one of the best bullish plays in this market climate.   
Read more: Breaking

Watch the Japanese Yen When Timing Buys
2008-03-17 12:26:53
It's truly an interesting time to be involved with the stock market. Strange things are happening like a Fed rate cut over the weekend. Amazing!Those who can keep their heads during periods like the one we're in can find amazing opportunities. I'm going to spend some time this week looking at indicators that we can use to spot opportunities. Today, I'm going to focus on the Japanese yen.I've been following the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen exchange rate for a long time, almost a year now. Specifically, I detected early on a linkage between the yen and stock prices in the U.S. Quite simply, the weaker the yen got, the higher stock prices went.That relationship is over now that the yen is strengthening and U.S. stocks are weakening. The best way to observe, and even trade, this relationship i
Read more: Timing

Was That the Bottom?
2008-03-18 11:08:28
Many traders are wondering if the lows are in place. With the Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU) up by about 400 points in the last two days, after having rebounded from 11,800 for the third time, I think it's a good question to ask.Yesterday we looked at the FXY as a proxy for risk in the market. The FXY is an ETF that tracks the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar exchange rate. Quite simply, a rollover in the FXY and follow-through to the downside would lend credence to the rally in stocks.Today, I want to examine the Volatility Index ($VIX), commonly referred to as the VIX. The VIX is a measure of fear. The higher the index the higher the level of fear in the market place.The VIX traded up to about 35 yesterday, which is pretty high. While most traders focus on the absolute high of the VIX, I like
Read more: Bottom

An Eccletic Buy List for this Erratic Market
2008-03-20 11:21:41
An important technical development occurred in the broader market yesterday. Believe it or not, it was bullish.I wrote yesterday about the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, speculating that it would rise to above 30. Somehow the index actually did break 30 despite the 300 point drop in the Dow. This was a bullish sign, one that might make a buy on the dip strategy worth using for the next few weeks or months.But don't buy the weak stocks in the market. Don't go near anything tainted with sub prime. The story is far from over. Instead, use pullbacks in the broader market to buy strong stocks. Five of my favorites right now include:Wal-Mart (WMT)Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK)Valence Technology (VLNC)Omega Healthcare (OHI)Herbalife (HLF)
Read more: Market

The Rounded Bottom in Cisco Systems (CSCO) Looks Good
2008-03-24 12:24:18
The bulls are running away with today's tape, taking the broader market on a wild ride higher. But don't get too greedy chasing stocks higher. Risks still remain.It seems that the recent actions by the central bank and government are emboldening the bulls to buy stocks. While the worst is probably not over in the long-term, the recent bailouts by the government might buoy stocks for the short-term.One way to play a stabilization in stocks is through the technology sector. Stocks like GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, MSFT, etc, are immune to the credit contagion and subprime woes.One of the best looking set-ups in the technology sector right now is Cisco Systems (CSCO). The stock has traced out a rounded bottom over the last three months. The pattern tells me that CSCO is under steady institutional a
Read more: Bottom , Looks , Rounded

Hansen Natural (HANS) Crashing
2008-03-28 09:31:13
Hansen Natural (HANS) was one of last year's big winners. The company's high-powered sodas powered the stock to bubbly heights. But the stock is coming off of its caffeinated highs.HANS was up by well over 1,000% between 2005 and last year. It was one of the momentum favorites in the market. But like all other parabolic rises, the run has come to an end.The bursting of the HANS bubble is due to two factors that I can find: increased competition and costs. Late last year, I noticed more and more highly caffeinated sodas showing up in grocery stores and gas stations. Clearly more companies are capitalizing on the caffeine craze, which is hurting Hansen's margins. Also, rising commodity prices are pressuring the company, especially corn and aluminum prices.The increasing pressure on marg
Read more: Hansen

Tupperware (TUP) Bull Flag Breakout
2008-03-27 09:32:21
With recession looming in the U.S., is it possible that more people are eating leftovers? That's what the price action in Tupperware Brands (TUP) suggests.If more people are eating leftovers, they're going to need somewhere to store them. That's where TUP comes into play. The company is a direct seller of design-centric preparation, storage and serving solutions for the kitchen.The stock is on the rise, trading at a new 52 week high today. TUP is breaking out from a bull flag, which has formed over the past two months. The consolidation has been tight, between horizontal support at $34 and horizontal resistance at $38. TUP could see $42 in the next few months.
Read more: Breakout

Follow the Flag in the Oil Services Holders (OIH)
2008-03-26 10:02:14
The Oil Services Holders (OIH) is an old school ETF. It's one of my favorites as a trading vehicle.The OIH has been all over the place over the past six months. Record oil prices drove the OIH higher, to near $200. But then the worry over a recession caused the OIH to cascade lower to below $150.Since rebounding from $150, the OIH has traced a nearly perfect bull flag. It's trying to breakout from the flag today with the spike in crude oil prices. An early breakout might be taken near $176. Confirmation of the bull flag will come if the OIH advances to $184.


Head and Shoulders Bottom Points to a Rally
2008-04-01 09:07:57
There are head and shoulders bottoms forming across the broad market averages. Could these patterns lead to an extended rally in U.S. stocks?In the tutorial, I write about looking for bullish reversal patterns when the broader market is oversold. The broader market is quite oversold as measured by the NYSE Bullish Percent Index and I'm seeing a lot of bullish reversal patterns in the form of head and shoulders bottoms right now.Take a look at the S&P 500 ($SPX). The left shoulder is at approximately 1310, the head at 1280, and the right shoulder at 1310. The neckline is sloping downward.Another head and shoulders bottom is forming in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU). The Dow's left shoulder is at 12000, head at 11800, and right shoulder at 12200. The neckline is descending
Read more: Bottom , Points , Rally , Shoulders

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