Owner: Publius Endures URL:http://publiusendures.blogspot.com Join Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 23:44:09 -0600 Rating:0 Site Description: A libertarian looks at interest groups, politics, corruption, and the legacy of Federalist #10. Site statistics:Click here
Tactics and Political Brand Names 2008-02-15 12:38:00 Kyle has an interesting post today that is a continuation of a discussion we had yesterday. In recent days, Obama has been responding to increased attacks that he lacks substance by giving more substantive speeches that tone down a lot of his more inspirational rhetoric. As Kyle points out, Obama was initially criticized early last year for being too heavy on the substance and too light on the inspiration in his speeches. When he changed his tone to replicate his legendary 2004 convention speech, he began to get traction and closed the gap with Sen. Clinton. As Kyle also recognizes, it is this style which has carried Obama from longshot to favorite.But with the increased vigor of the attacks by the Clinton campaign on the substance issue, Kyle thinks it wise of Obama to respond with mo Read more:Brand
, Names
Grading the Candidates 2008-02-12 22:59:00 It took me a few days, but as I promised the other day, below is my analysis of the three remaining candidates with a realistic shot at the Presidency. Should Bloomberg run as a third party candidate (or for that matter, Bob Barr or another prominent libertarian), I will revisit this analysis. Of course, this analysis is utterly useless if you are unwilling to vote for someone who is not a libertarian in any way (and will thus be abstaining or voting for the LP candidate no matter what). But I think it's a useful guide to the big three nonetheless.I have prioritized and weighted the issues based on their importance to me in this election; I have no doubt that others will disagree with that weighting and prioritization.1. Executive Power/Civil Liberties - This is by far the most importa Read more:Candidates
Hillary Skips Telecom Vote 2008-02-12 15:15:00 Per Marc Ambinder, Obama voted against telecom immunity today, McCain voted for it, and Hillary
Clinton voted.... absent?Obama deserves at least some minimal praise for standing by his pledge to fight against telecom immunity (though as Big Tent Democrat correctly points out, his leadership on this issue has been lacking). In choosing to cast a vote on this issue, he leaves himself vulnerable to charges of being un-patriotic by the GOP. In other words, he took a very real risk here. True enough that he didn't have to sacrifice much campaigning time with today's DC-area primaries.But the relatively small amount of praise that Obama deserves for his vote shows how cowardly Senator Clinton's actions appear in comparison. As Ambinder points out, Clinton was in Texas, for which she left last ni Read more:Skips
, Telecom
Giving Credit Where It's Due 2008-02-12 14:09:00 It's rare for me to offer praise to the LRC crowd. But when one of them leaves the fever swamp, it's worth giving them credit, as is the case with this excellent post from Nick Bradley (who I'll admit usually does a pretty good job avoiding the anti-Cato, anti-Reason vitriol). Bradley discusses the Daniel Koffler Comment Is Free column about Obama's appeal to libertarians that I posted about awhile back.In any event, Bradley's analysis is well-balanced, fair, and well worth a read, I think.Money quote:So, is Obama a left-libertarian? No; Obama's platform is more akin to "Soft Paternalism", a gentler, less threatening approach to controlling people's lives (sometimes incorrectly referred to as Libertarian Paternalism)....Don't get me wrong: in a hypothetical match up in the fall between O Read more:Giving
Another One? 2008-02-08 08:46:00 Doug Mataconis adds his voice to the chorus of libertarians who view Obama as the most tolerable candidate with a chance to be President. As is the case with my endorsements of Obama, he is explicitly not endorsing Obama for the general election. Doug's "endorsement" is also much less enthusiastic than mine have been.Money quote:What’s needed, I am convinced, is a break with the past and a new direction. In some sense, although I hate to admit it, John McCain represents that for the GOP but Barack Obama represents it even more and, more importantly, is running against the one person who, if she wins, would guarantee a return to same crap we’ve been dealing with since 1993 on both sides of the political aisle.Read the whole thing. Hopefully, tonight or this afternoon I'm going to bre
Initial Thoughts on Super Tuesday 2008-02-06 06:51:00 Some initial thoughts on last night....Republicans1. Romney is DOA. Even though Huckabee has proven remarkably resilient, it's impossible to see how McCain fails to win the nomination. The oft-heard meme last night and this morning has been about a McCain-Huckabee ticket. This, of course, is something I've said makes political sense for months - even back when McCain was still the underdog. Let the record show that on Dec. 26, I argued that such a ticket would be the only way for the GOP to unite its coalition for one last battle in November. Let the record also show that on that same day, I argued that McCain would win the nomination as long as he could keep his campaign afloat through SuperTuesday
. Just sayin'2. With McCain inevitable at this point, every extra dollar that Mitt Romney s
Standard Meme of the Night 2008-02-05 21:02:00 If I were John McCain, I'd be pretty annoyed at Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough and a bunch of other pundits who have been advancing the meme that all of McCain's support is coming from "Blue states that Republicans can't win." The reason I find this annoying is that it makes the assumption that Republicans don't need to win any blue states and shouldn't even try, even though they won the last two elections by the slimmest of margins with no room for error. If the Republican strategy is just to hold on to the states that Bush won in 2004 while making no inroads into other states, then the Republicans are leaving themselves no margin for error in a year when their party identification numbers are at an all time low.At the same time as they've been hitting this meme like a broken record, th Read more:Standard
, Night
Romney's Refrain 2008-02-05 10:52:00 I've been meaning to comment on this for awhile, and today may well be my last chance if McCain all but seals the deal tonight as expected. In any event, ever since Romney
transparently pillaged Obama's "Change" theme, he has made a point of saying that we can't have change by just "putting the same people in different chairs" (or something similar to that). He then claims that his experience as a Blue State governor (and as a businessman) makes him uniquely qualified to be President.There's just one problem with that argument, which essentially argues that you need an outsider to create change, preferably an experienced governor, and definitely NOT a sitting member of Congress: most Presidents in modern times have fit Romney's "outsider" definition to a "T." Indeed, the last time we elect
For the Record 2008-02-05 10:15:00 For what it's worth, turnout in my Republican-monopolized town here in New Jersey seemed surprisingly low in a year when this state's vote actually means something in theory. I went to vote at what should have been a high time, and had exactly zero wait, and there was no one else coming or going for my district. Other districts (there are several that vote in the same building) were not much better. This says nothing about the Dem turnout, of course, since as I said the Republicans have a monopoly in my town (there wasn't a single "D" on my page of the voter list, for example). But the apparent lack of enthusiasm on the Republican side at this point says a lot. Read more:Record
My Reluctant Vote and What Ron Paul Should Have Done 2008-02-05 10:00:00 This morning, I sucked it up, went to the voting booth, and voted for Ron Paul
. Had the newsletter story broken earlier than it did, I would have changed my party registration so I could have supported Obama and given him a chance to win this surprisingly close state against Nixon in a Pantsu....err, Hillary.In any event, it was amazing to me how joyless the experience of voting for Ron Paul had become only a few months after being absolutely ecstatic about his candidacy. Indeed, in the end, my vote was purely strategic and symbolic....a pure protest vote. My decision was made easier by the fact that McCain has a huge lead here in New Jersey, which is also a winner take all primary on the Republican side. Since I view Romney as on a par with Hillary on the Evil Scale, ensuring the death of
Final Super Tuesday Predictions and Prognostications 2008-02-04 15:15:00 The other day I gave a best guess on the fluid status of the SuperTuesday
races on the Dem side. Today, I'm going to lay it all on the line and get very specific on those predictions by giving what I think will be the final spread in each race. While Obama has been gaining in almost all the polls, I want to point out that Hillary starts out with a big advantage in absentee ballots in a number of states. I also suspect that voter turnout will be highest among those who made up their minds awhile ago, which is the group most likely to have been following the race closely. So my predictions are slightly less optimistic for Obama than his momentum would suggest.If I have time, I'll try to do the same for the Republicans tonight or tomorrow morning.Without further ado:Alabama: Clinton by less Read more:Final
, Predictions
Obama and Gun Control 2008-02-04 09:17:00 Nick Gillespie discusses a Clayton Cramer post on Obama
and gun control. Cramer views Obama as an anti-gun radical (although their voting records show that Hillary is far, far worse).My take, left as a comment to Gillespie's post, is below. Bottom line: Obama is clearly an anti-gun Democrat; but I also don't think significant gun control is likely in the next Administration to the extent it is a wedge issue that requires tons of political capital.The key question here is:"How much of a role will gun rights play in the election?" The answer: not much, nor should they. Violent crime in this country is extremely low right now compared with the 80's and early 90's. The so-called "assault weapons" ban has been expired for well over 3 years and (shockingly!) there has been no sudden surge of peo Read more:Control
Concluding Blogroll Amnesty Day 2008-02-03 21:34:00 All weekend, I've been linking to other small blogs in honor of today's BlogrollAmnesty
Day. There are still a couple more blogs from my blogroll to which I want to give some special attention, but which I was unable to give full posts this weekend. Below are a couple of recommended posts from those blogs. If there is anyone else on my blogroll who would like to have a post added to this list, let me know.For the record, not all of these blogs are smaller than me, and one or two are even substantially larger than me. But all are underrated in their own way.East Coast Libertarian discusses markets, morality, and central planning with a special eye on the libertarian truism known in these parts as Kip's Law.Cosmo's Brain on Mitt Romney and Godwin's Law (bonus anti-Donder-oooooooooooooooo! r
A New Low in Moral Equivalence 2008-02-02 23:14:00 I haven't much followed Senator Specter's utterly insane obsession with the NFL/Patriots "Spygate" non-scandal. But Tony at RollingDoughnut points out what has to be a new low in moral equivalence from Ira Einhorn's favorite defense attorney:"The American people are entitled to be sure about the integrity of the game. It's analogous to the CIA destruction of tapes, or any time you have records destroyed."Read Tony's full post, or else you don't get a cookie. Read more:Moral
Executive Power and Organic Change 2008-02-02 22:33:00 I wanted to discuss another important suggestion from this article I just linked to from Corgi Guy: as a matter of policy, the person we choose as President matters relatively little. While I disagree with this assertion to the extent it ignores the expansion of Executive
Power that has occured over the last 7 years, it is otherwise historically quite accurate. Assuming that the Bush expansions of Executive Power are rolled back, the historical American system of separation of powers will take effect yet again, and the President will be prevented from making radical changes of policy except with the assistance of the other branches of government and/or the overwhelming support of the American people. Indeed, the Presidents who have ushered through the most radical top-down policy changes Read more:Organic
, Change
Obama and International Perceptions 2008-02-02 22:25:00 Corgi Guy has a fascinating, must-read article from a Spanish paper about the international view of Obama
, American politics, and how they fit together. The point of the article is that the international view of Obama says much about the state of affairs in individual countries, more so than it says much about whether the international community thinks Obama would be a good President.This is not to say that Obama's successes are insignificant - quite the contrary, in fact. Should he be elected, he will have an impact that no other President can have - not by what he does, but by who he is and what that fact says about America. The anti-American stereotypes of the European and Latin American Left about the USA will be crushed, while the political Right in those countries (which would fit mo Read more:International
Best Super Tuesday Prediction Around 2008-02-02 15:21:00 Divided We Stand United We Fall has put together an epic tale of what shall come to pass in the ongoing battle between Queen Hillary and the Hero Obama. Possibly the most entertaining take yet on the battle for control of the Democratic Party. A must-read.For the record, my more wonky predictions are here. Read more:Super
, Tuesday
, Prediction
Blogroll Amnesty Day 2008-02-01 22:58:00 Per Jon Swift, I learned that this weekend is the Second Annual BlogrollAmnesty
Day. The first such day occured prior to my foray into the blogosphere, so it's not my place to explain the circumstances behind this event, other than to say that it is a day/weekend for left-of-center blogs to open their blogrolls up to all comers and give some blog-love to their smaller counterparts.In any event, the modest success I've had on this blog the last few months has been far more than I ever thought I'd have. Much of that success has been due to the liberal policies of other blogs, and to the surprising amount of blog-love they send my way by linking to my posts on a semi-frequent basis. Without their assistance, I doubt this blog would have ever gotten more than a few dozen hits a day.In particu
Today's Iraq Bombing 2008-02-01 21:09:00 ...Nothing short of appalling and disgusting. I have no comment on how this affects evaluation of the relative success or failure of the surge - it is one incident, and should not be used as a basis for broader conclusions on that front.But AQI's use of women with Down's Syndrome as apparently unwitting murderers is animal in every degree. Whatever else may be said about the Bush Administration, the Iraq
War more generally, or our current foreign policy, this much is clear: there is no moral equivalence.More reactions at memeorandum.***UPDATE*** Via a commenter at Obsidian Wings - there is some question as to whether the "bomber" in fact had Down's Syndrome. If that is not the case, however, then it appears at least one was the mother of a small child, which is not much less appalling. A Read more:Today
, Bombing
Predicting Super Tuesday 2008-02-01 15:45:00 Despite all the hype, I think it's unlikely that SuperTuesday
will result in a clear winner on the Dems side, particularly given the way in which the Democrats distribute delegates. Obviously, I expect Super Tuesday to put an end to Romney's hopes on the Republican side.Unless Hillary manages to get about 60% of the overall vote on Tuesday or Obama wins a majority of the total vote plus a significant majority of the states, I think both sides will be able to spin just about any result as a victory for them and still pass the laugh test. I do expect that Hillary will come out clearly on top in both delegates and vote percentage, though by nowhere near enough to knock Obama out of the race or to plausibly argue that she is the presumptive nominee.With that in mind, below is my best guess of
A Strange Consensus 2008-02-01 07:45:00 Usually after a debate you will find that there is very little consensus about who won or lost. There may be a slight majority opinion one way or another, but there's usually a good number who disagree. Last night does not fit that mold, though.Nearly every centrist or Progressive source I've read so far has called the debate either a tie or a slight win for Obama. I've yet to find one such source that called it for Hillary or said that it was a knockout blow for Obama. A few examples: Josh Marshall, Chuck Todd, Marc Ambinder, Noam Scheiber, Ron Chusid, and of course libertarian me.Despite this, there seems to be a consensus among conservative commentators and bloggers that Hillary won the debate by a good margin, as discussed in this post at Newsday's Spin Cycle. See also: Lisa Schiffren. Read more:Strange
Debate Thoughts 2008-01-31 20:54:00 When I've blogged about the Democratic debates, I've generally tried to avert a lot of the domestic policy issues. I do that primarily because I've spent most of my life as a Republican, and I have very little idea how specific differences on domestic policy play within various Democratic Party groups. For a better idea on those issues, I strongly recommend Kyle's live-blogging of the debate. Still, I feel plenty comfortable discussing foreign policy since many Dems are more libertarian-friendly on this issue than Republicans are; ditto with immigration policy. And of course I feel comfortable discussing the unsubstantive things about the debates that still wind up being critically important.Given those limitations, here are my thoughts on tonight's debate:1. Despite his momentum, Obama is Read more:Debate
A Quick Word on Tonight's Debate 2008-01-30 20:46:00 I've been too ill to blog anything today about the Florida results, the Giuliani endorsement, or the Edwards news.But the debate tonight, especially the exchange between Romney and McCain over McCain's accusation about Romney supporting timetables, struck me as noteworthy.First, in the aforementioned exchange, McCain may have done himself some serious damage, both short and long-term. He came across as a bully who was just out for blood, trying to kick Romney when he was down. It was the first time....ever....that I've felt any sympathy for Romney. The exchange also seriously damaged McCain's claim to being the "Straight Talk" candidate. I say this as someone who would vastly prefer McCain to Romney (which isn't to say I necessarily prefer McCain overall), but in trying to go for an unn Read more:Quick
, Debate
, Tonight
Another Libertarian Blogger for Obama? 2008-01-29 15:20:00 I've been taking some mild flak the last few days for my quasi-endorsement of Obama
, by which I mean that I currently support him, and would support him over any other potential major party nominee. However, I may yet decide to go with the LP nominee in the general election, depending on how things play out between now and November. To reiterate, though - I have no illusion that Obama is himself a libertarian in any way; however, I believe he is more genuinely open to libertarian solutions than any candidate of recent vintage, particularly on social and civil liberties; on economic liberties, he appears far better than any Democrat in many years (though I hasten to add that in effect, the Clinton presidency wound up being quite pro-market).In any event, my sentiments appear to be seconded Read more:Libertarian
, Blogger
Libertarians on Warrantless Wiretapping 2008-01-28 23:01:00 Kos asks where the libertarians are on fighting against the current FISA bill.This is largely an important and fair question. Little is ever heard publicly from libertarian organizations on this issue, yet it is something going on - right now - that implicates libertarian values as much as anything else.Libertarians
have not been silent on this issue. Ron Paul - to the extent he is a legitimate representative of libertarianism (debatable) - is quite clearly opposed to warrantless wiretapping, and has been fairly vocal about it to my knowledge. Reason has also come out quite clearly against the wiretapping bill, including this article by Julian Sanchez. And of course Radley Balko has made a career of documenting abuses by law enforcement in general in a way that perhaps no one on the Progre
The Source of Conflict and Hatred 2008-03-23 12:58:00 I wanted to share a revelation that I've had in the past few years that I think applies to conflicts and harmful behavior of all types. And that revelation is this:Atticus Finch was wrong when he said that you can't understand a man until you've walked a mile in his shoes, and thus implied that the cause of conflict and hatred is a lack of understanding of other people. What I have learned is that conflict and hatred isn't caused by failing to understand others, but is instead caused by people thinking that they do understand others. Put more clearly: The problem isn't that people don't understand each other, it's that they think they do.I will be happy to elaborate on this more fully should anyone ask. Read more:Source
, Conflict
I'm Baa-ack 2008-03-23 12:47:00 My apologies for my unexpected hiatus over the last month or so. I don't want to get into the details behind it, but I've been dealing with an all-consuming problem that made it difficult for me to do anything with this blog. I'm hoping to get back up and running in the coming days as I catch up on current events, although my posting will probably be limited to just one or - at most - two a day for the foreseeable future.Just to deter any speculation on these fronts, the issue that has kept me from posting did NOT involve any of the following: drugs, alcohol, arrest, dee-vorce, firearms, illegal wiretaps, Guantanamo Bay, torture, Hillary Clinton re-education camp. It may or may not, however, have involved tap dancing on the grave of the Mitt Romney campaign.
Some Weekend Reading 2008-04-04 15:53:00 I'm going to be away for the weekend. But I wanted to leave a link to today's best post, which I believe was one of my most useful ever. If you haven't read it yet, I highly recommend it. Read more:Weekend
, Reading
Bob Barr for President? 2008-04-04 14:37:00 Via Below the Beltway, Dave Weigel is reporting that it seems like Bob Barr is almost certainly going to announce a run for President
under the Libertarian Party banner this weekend.For reasons I'd rather not get into, I have a better understanding of Bob Barr than probably the vast majority of libertarian bloggers out there (though not as much as some), so I think I should probably comment on his prospective run, which is creating a lot of division within the post-Ron Paul libertarian community.The first thing I would say is that the LP could do a lot worse than Congressman Barr. Although he most certainly had a less-than-libertarian track record in Congress on things ranging from the Drug War to gay rights, he has clearly experienced a change of heart on many or most of those issues. M
Sad News of the Day 2008-04-04 14:16:00 I just saw that Ed Morrissey shut down Captain's Quarters during my hiatus and is now blogging at Hot Air. While as far as I can tell Captain Ed's style and tone is the same as it's always been, I'm a bit saddened by this bit of news. As much as I frequently disagree with the Captain, he has always done an outstanding job of giving his opinion and news with a good dose of calm and reason, with remarkably little of the vitriol and venom that often exemplifies the A-list blogosphere of both the left (see: Talkleft) and right (see: Michelle Malkin). In joining Hot Air the Captain is now forcing me to fight through the hyperbole and rank hatred that is often typical of Hot Air's tone. Sigh.Although, I must admit that the usually cantankerous Allahpundit seems to have taken a more even tone
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