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1-29-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-01-29 21:57:01
Going Long EUR/USD & Crossing My Fingers This morning the Euro broke out against the Yen and the Pound. But it was the EUR/USD pair that caught my eye. It has been consolidating downwards for the past 2 months in a very orderly manner but never really in an out of control manner. So today, when price broke out above Friday’s high I went long with a close stop under Friday’s low. My initial target would yield a solid 3.5 R/R. If this trade is going to start moving, it should do so sooner rather than later and it is by no means out of the woods as a good argument could just as easily be made for shorting here in the 8/34 EMA sell zone created when both EMAs are sloping downwards and price is approaching from underneath. So I’ll have to watch it closely tomorrow and if nothing positive happens within a day or two (and I haven’t gotten stopped out), I’ll really have to start tightening up my stop. The good things this trade has going
Read more: Daily , Trading

1-23-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-01-23 22:43:53
Waiting for Confirmation One of the things I’m really falling in love with in the FX market is the speed at which everything moves, it’s all much slower than in the futures market. And since I tend to be a counter-trend trader, this works well in my favor for after I enter a trade, I have much more time to react if things don’t go my way. All of this is greatly due to the ability to better control the amount of leverage you want to use. There were a number of factors that caught my eye on the above trade. When I was flipping through some charts this morning, I noticed that USD/CHF had taken a pretty big hit but when I checked out GBP/CHF, it hadn’t reacted nearly as strongly. And while the GBP has held up much stronger agains the CHF than USD over the past few months, they do tend to move in the same general direction, so this descrepancy was enough to put the GBP/CHF on my watchlist. And when I checked out the Daily chart above, I saw that p
Read more: Trading

Intro to FX Market & Carry Trades
2007-01-17 16:23:29
RSS subscribe Digg Del.icio.us I wanted to take a second and post the current swap rates that can be found at the following address: http://interbankfx.com/swap_rates.php For those of you who may be new to the FX Market , it is very important that you understand what swap is and how it can both help and hurt your account. First a quick definition. Swap is basically the interest paid as a result of holding currency overnight. It can be positive or negative depending on the currency pair that you are trading. It is calculated and either added or subtracted from your account daily depending on the currency pair. This is due to the varying interest rates charged in different countries. Right now the biggest difference is between the British Pound which is paying something in the order of 6-7% per annum and the Japanese Yen which is only paying .25% per annum. So when sell Yen to buy Pounds (aka: buying GBP/JPY) you will be paid 6-7%/365 * #Pounds and you will lose
Read more: Carry

1-31-2007 Trading Results
2007-01-31 22:51:39
Adjusting Stop on EUR/USD Today was just what I was looking for with this pair. After scaring me this morning for a little bit, we got to see a nice 100 pip pop by this afternoon. Thus, I am raising my stop from -80 pips to -30 pips. So the good news is that I have really increased my Reward / Risk ratio after today’s move. The bad news is that the trade is not out of the woods yet as the price is approaching the top of this month’s trading channel. If it can break out then it should be off to the races, but that breakout is by no means a given. I could take my 80 pip profit off of the table right now, but I’m going to see where I’m at after tomorrow and then decide whether or not to scale out of a portion/all of my position. I’ve been watching all of the other currency pairs closely, but still have yet to find anything else worth taking at this point. More posts like this on the Topic Exchange: .
Read more: Trading

2-6-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-02-06 15:34:27
I just wanted to give a quick update on my last EUR/USD trade. After it moved 80 pips in my favor I adjusted the stop to break even and was recently stopped out. It looks like it might be trying to roll back over so I am wondering whether I made a mistake by getting out too early, but I’ll be keeping an eye on it to see if I can jump back in. Right now the two pairs that I’m monitoring most closely are USD/JPY & GBP/CHF. The former is dropping into an area of prior consolidation and might be worth trying out on the long side. The added bonus of USD/JPY is that it also doubles as a carry trade so that I’m pulling a pretty nice interest differential the longer it remains open. The British Pound has been holding up nicely across all pairs here recently and has been in a nice, controlled, consolidating pattern against the JPY, USD, & CHF. But since I’m already watching USD/JPY I’m more inclined to ignore the GBP/USD & GBP/JPY pa
Read more: Daily , Trading

2-20-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-02-20 14:44:50
EUR/GBP Hitting Resistance I couldn’t help but fade this setup despite the fact that longer term, the EUR pairs have just broken out or area looking to do so and so are looking pretty bullish. But it was this EUR/GBP pair that really caught my eye. Over the past 1.5 months, EUR/GBP has dropped 200+ pips in a very short period of time and has only now clawed its way back up to its original, untouched, starting point prior to the drop. This is usually a shortable setup in its own right, but add to that an FFF fade setup, price over-extension from the 10-EMA, and the rolling over ADX & RSI and it really is a no-brainer. It may work, and it may not, but the Risk/Reward is very adequate for this kind of a play so I have gone short with a stop just over the most recent high looking for a pullback somewhere in between the 10 & 34 EMAs. If this play is going to work is should pan out within the next couple days. Anything longer than that and that could sig
Read more: Daily , Trading

Computer Update
2007-03-07 18:14:05
I am about ready to loose my mind after already missing the most volatile market action since I began trading full time. So I called HP and they sent me a new hard drive for my trading PC (it’s only 3 months old!). I tried to run the recovery disks, but no go. They sent me a new set of recovery disks to try, no go. So now they’re sending me a box so I can mail back the whole thing so they can figure out what’s wrong with it. So I won’t have access to much of my trading data for at least another 2 weeks. That being said, I couldn’t take it anymore and dusted off this old laptop of mine and hooked up an extra monitor to is so I could at least pull up some rudimentary charts. I’m currently long the USD/JPY looking for a bounce after the 700 pip crash over the past few days. I’m looking for a target profit of 100-150 pips in the short term. So far it has just kind of gone sideways on me. I’m working on trying to find a way to tak
Read more: Computer , Update

3-8-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-03-08 15:04:42
  USD/JPY Position Half Way to Target Well I finally figured out a way to take some basic chart pictures on my temporary trading pc so I wanted to show you the play I’m currently in with the USD/JPY. In a way it is a good thing that I missed the huge volatility spike over the past couple weeks for it has set up this beauty of a counter-trend fade that should easily yield 100+ pips in a fairly short period of time. Had I been watching this closer, I may have attempted to fade this move much sooner thinking that “it couldn’t keep going lower”. There was a channel breakdown that occured around 119.00 (as noted by the red box). Had I seen this sooner, I could have gone long sooner around the Fade Reversal Area abound 115.50…this is calculated by projecting the height of the box downward from teh breakdown and then going long. By the time I noticed the powerful fading opportunity, price had already rallied 100 pips from this initial a
Read more: Daily , Trading

3-9-2006 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-03-09 15:45:26
  USD/JPY Target Hit, Open USD/CHF I closed out half of my USD/JPY position yesterday afternoon for a +94 pip profit & raised my stop to break even on the remaining half to give it a chance to make it to the full +146 pip target. And an hour ago, when I came back from the gym, I saw that the target had been hit for a combined 4-day profit of 230 pips. Also, yesterday evening I opened up another long position on USD/CHF (See chart Below). While I’m usually not a big fan of range breakout plays as I just seem to have had bad experiences with them in the past, this one caught my eye for a number of reasons. 1.) The pair had fallen down into a prior known demand area from which prices had previously shot out of. 2.) Not only did prices fail to break down below this area, but they stalled & yesterday, price closed near the upper end of this range 3.) MACD momentum had long since turned higher & we are about ready to get a MACD cross 4.) GreenADX had tur
Read more: Daily , Trading

3-13-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-03-13 22:07:27
  USD/CHF Closed Half, Other Half Stopped Out Talk about some good timing. A couple days ago I closed out half of my USD/CHF trade for a 77 pip profit after the up move stalled on the hourly charts. I then moved my stop up to just under the most recent day’s low and was going to let the other half ride. Boy am I glad that I did both of those things because yesterday price broke down and hasn’t looked up since. The play was always meant to catch a very short-term move because the daily chart was setting up for a picture perfect bear consolidation. In hindsight, going for anything more than an hourly pop may have been an error on my part due to this fact. But I have another 43 pips net to show for my lesson which brings my net profit since switching to FX Trading in January to 1,045 pips accross 13 trades with an average profit of 80 pips/trade and Win Rate of 69.23% I’ve been very hesitant to publish these numbers so far because, quite frankly, t
Read more: Daily

3-29-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-03-29 23:12:04
  EUR/GBP Position In Black, Letting it Ride GREAT NEWS EVERYBODY! My trading computer has been returned to me as good as new and I have finally managed to reload all of my programs back on it and am good to go. What a mess it is trying to trade on an old laptop. Sorry I haven’t been posting much, but between my pc issues and moving into our new house, I’ve been pretty busy. I’ve really only made one trade in the past couple of weeks actually. It is the EUR/GBP trade below that I opened as an FFF Fade in conjunction with a MACD Divergence. Talk about picking a top! I was torn yesterday as to whether I should close out half of the position for a win or lett it all ride. I’ve decided to see what it does over the next couple days before making my next move. As of right now, my stop is just above break even and my trades have been on a tear recently so I’m just going to see what happens with this one. My ideal target would be in the
Read more: Daily , Trading

4-2-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-04-02 23:15:55
  EUR/GBP Breaking Down Looks like the EUR/GBP is breaking down after from its consolidation so I went ahead and adjusted my stop to just above the high of the consolidation and am looking to take profit in the .6735 range. I think that price is going to be attracted to the .6700 area before it really turns back north at all for a couple of reasons. 1.) That’s where the support is were you to extend the increasing trendline 2.) That’s right around where the FFF indicates a reversal level But I’m not going to get too greedy here. At a minimum I’ll look to close 1 of my 2 lots, but I may let the other half stretch for the .6700 area, we’ll just have to wait and see. As for now, I have to go get cleaned up as I just got back from day # 3 of painting our new house and I’m a mess! And thank you to those of you who noticed I was gone for a little bit and wrote me with your very kind words, I do truly appreciate them all.
Read more: Daily , Trading

4-6-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-04-07 04:17:24
  EUR/GBP Closed, Yen Ready for a Surge? There are a few things I wanted to talk about today. First is that my EUR/GBP trade did not make it to my target (came within 10 pips before reversing!) and I got stopped out for a 47 pip/lot profit for a total haul of 94 pips for my longest-lasting trade of the year (22 days). Now that I finally have my old trading files back up and in working order, I also wanted to share with you my updated trading spreadsheet showing my year-to-date FX trades. Overall, I really couldn’t be more pleased. I’m on a 10-trade winning streak and have really been on a roll since I switched over to FX…I hope to keep it going with the EUR/JPY trade setup discussed next. Well it sure has been one heckuva ride over the past 6 weeks for the Yen. After rising 1,000 pips in less than a week across all pairs, it has taken 4-5 weeks, but has finally clawed its way back to where it started. Hence, we are getting into some PRIME
Read more: Daily , Trading

4-9-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-04-10 00:32:21
  EUR/JPY Rolling Over I was happy to come home to see that I had gotten filled on my EUR/JPY trade this morning at 159.59 and that it was already 25 pips in the black. The more I look at this setup, the more I’m liking it. Looking back over the past year, NEVER has price been above the 10 EMA by 50-75 pips and a correction not taken place, just look what happened the last time! Add to taht the MACD divergence with the RSI & ADX rolling over and I’m very optimistic. But that’s really all I can say at this point. I have my stop in place and am really just in wait and see mode. If it does roll over and touch the 10 EMA, then I’ll adjust my stop to just under the 160 range and have to decide whether or not I want to take half off of the table. I’ll let ya know.
Read more: Daily , Trading

4-10-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-04-11 04:20:53
  Also Going Short AUD/JPY After reviewing the charts of the currency pairs this evening, I’m still convinced that the best chance for a profit is going to originate due to profit taking in the Yen cross-pairs. What caught my eye the most though was the AUD/JPY which was consolidating a few days ago and recently broke higher only to form an inverted hammer today right near the FFF Reversal Zone. So while it is a little bit riskier move than I typically take, I’m going short here with a stop just above the FFF RZ and a target somewhere in the vicinity of the 95.00 consolidation area. The setup and targets are very similar to the EUR/JPY position which I still have open with the MACD divergence and Overbought RSI only this trade has an even better entry due to the recent daily breakout. The risks here are that I am doubling down on my Yen short exposure but I am hoping that the more than 3+ Reward/Risk ratio will make the trade worthwhile. And as always,
Read more: Daily , Trading

4-17-2007 Daily Trading Lesson
2007-04-18 04:45:57
  AUD/JPY Correction Looks Imminent Well I was on a nice little run but they all have to end eventually. I was recently stopped out on my EUR/JPY fade for a loss of 106 pips per lot. I will still be keeping a close eye on the pair for a potential longer term swing setup if there is a trendline break or MACD cross as this uptrend is overdue for some sort of intermediate correction as it has put in 5 consecutive higher lows over the past couple months since the big selloff. As for my other JPY fade, please refer to the chart below. As of right now it is under by about 120 pips per lot. In hindsight, I think I was over-anxioius to get on board this trade and missed a much better entry has I simply waited for price to cross above the first FFF Fade zone. All the conditions that originially caused me to enter this trade are still present (The MACD Divergence, Slowing ADX, Reversing RSI, & Overextended Price) so I am optimistic that price will at least fall back to
Read more: Daily , Trading

3-3-2008
2008-03-03 06:53:10
  Energy, Cash, & Gold Right now, my largest position is Cash with a little bit left in Gold. Since my last post, energy has been the big winner with the US markets still desperately searching for some momentum in either direction. I missed the boat on the recent energy rally, but that and the [...]


2-14-2008 Still Waiting
2008-02-14 06:45:00
  Still Waiting For Short Opps At this point, I am still holding onto a lot of cash and waiting for the right opportunity to put it to work. This week has been great so far but one thing has been conpicuously missing during the rally; Volume. The lack of volume on this week’s bounce [...]


1-31-2008 Short or Wait?
2008-01-31 06:46:44
  Imagine What Would Have Happened… Can you imagine what would have happened if the fed had only cut the rate by 25 basis points or, heaven forbid, not at all?!?! Yesterday after the announcement, the markets rallied giving me the perfect opportunity to close out my long IYR & EWW positions. Looks like I [...]
Read more: Short

1-28-2008 Holding Tight
2008-01-28 06:41:24
  Markets Look Uninspiring I’ve closed out half of all my Short-term counter-trend trades a profit and am trailing the stop on the rest to see if there is enough energy left in them to make it to T2. If the European markets are any indicator, then it’s not looking like they’re going to make it, [...]


1-23-2008 Thank You Bernanke
2008-01-23 17:22:05
  75 Basis Point Rate Cut Saved Me Only my USD position was stopped out yesterday, with a close call on EWW & IYR. Before the rate cut announcement came, the DJIA was down 600 points in Pre-market trading and I was pretty much sure that I was going to get stopped out on a gap [...]
Read more: Bernanke , Thank

WilyTrader Partner - Correct Call 5/14/2008
2008-05-14 15:30:31
  After a hiatus, energy stocks have returned to the top of the charts with Coal Stocks leading the way. The top 10% of performing industries for the week were:
Read more: Correct , Partner

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