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Pollution fears over China's growth
2007-01-14 15:11:00
From Financial Times China has recorded double-digit growth for the fourth year in succession, according to the country's top economic planner, amid rising tension between the push for continued fast development and the environment. Ma Kai, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on the agency's website on Friday that the economy had grown by 10.5 per cent in 2006 "according to initial calculations". The figure, released by Mr Ma ahead of the official announcement of growth figures due on January 25, records an economy slowing slightly from the blistering growth of more than 11 per cent recorded during the first quarter of last year. [Read more] Teddy's Opinion: In my personal experience, the pollution problem is very serious in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau but I don't think it will affect the amount of foreign investment because of the strong economic growth.
Read more: Pollution

Fund launches curbed on bubble fears
2007-01-14 08:32:00
From The StandardThe fear of a bubble forming in China's stock market has prompted Beijing to take further measures to slow down the inflow of capital pouring into the mainland's A-share market, according to media reports.Fund managers in China said mainland authorities have stopped allowing the launch of new domestic equity funds, the Financial Times reported Friday.The report said the China Securities Regulatory Commission was delaying the approval of several mutual fund launches to slow the inflow of funds into the market.The China Banking Regulatory Commission has also sent a document to mainland lenders urging them to stop lending money for stock investment and to recall any outstanding share loans, Bloomberg reported Friday.[Read more]Teddy's Commnet: The China government has realized the risk of A-share stock market bubble but I doubt the effectiveness of such policies. Do you remember the action tackling property bubble previously ?


Top research body warns of real estate bubble
2007-01-13 19:33:00
From TY News Beijing should keep its interest rate high and the real estate sector cool, according to a recent report from top research body the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). CASS economists said in the report, 2006-07: World Economy Analysis and Forecast, that it was necessary to keep the interest rate high and real estate cool to avoid the risk of a crisis such as the one Japan weathered in the 1990s. "China should not increase domestic demand on the price as it could risk enlarging the real estate bubble ," according to the report. [Read more] Teddy's Comment: The China government cannot control the real estate price from the previous adjustment policies. I think the China government should increase the supply and provide economic housing for middle-lower income citizens. However, there are a lot of conflict between central and local governments when implementing such policies to cool down economy.
Read more: warns

Chinese stocks take biggest single-day decline in six months
2007-01-13 19:27:00
From The Napa Valley Register SHANGHAI, China -- Chinese shares tumbled Friday, marking their biggest decline in six months as investors sold blue chips to lock in profits following the market's recent record-setting rally. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slipped 3.7 percent at 2,668.11, the sharpest single -day drop since a 4.8 percent slump on July 13, 2006. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2 percent to 599.80. Analysts were divided over whether the declines that ended the week signaled a correction or just a breather after the market's torrid rise. The main Shanghai index more than doubled last year and hit a record high as recently as Wednesday. [Read more] Teddy's Comment: I don't know whether it will be a big decline anymore but the great differnt price between A-Share and H-Share is unreasonable. H share have a lot of professional and mature investors while A share is a crazy market.


China Acts To Deflate Stock Bubble
2007-01-10 17:35:00
From ForbesDecember was hot for the Chinese stock markets, in all likelihood too hot: Mainland insurers listed in Hong Kong saw their shares rise more than 50%, while banking stocks in general were up more than 35%. The mainland H-shares listed in Hong Kong were up an aggregate 17%, while the A shares for domestic investors in Shanghai soared 25%.Such parabolic trajectories are obviously unsustainable, and the Chinese government launched a policy to curb the rally on Monday, while JP Morgan issued a warning to the investors.In order to discourage the bubble caused by the new listings, the Shanghai Stock Exchange altered its index calculations. New issues will no longer be counted in the indexes during their first 10 days of trading. That means that even though China Life Insurance (nyse: LFC - news - people ) closed at 38.93 yuan ($4.99) on the first day of it's a-shares trading in Shanghai on Tuesday -- more than double its IPO price of 18.88 yuan ($2.42) -- it hasn't push up the
Read more: Bubble

Stocks face investment bubble
2007-01-10 17:29:00
From People's Daily Online The sharp fluctuation of two Chinese bank stocks in the past few days indicated that an investment bubble is developing among Chinese financial stocks due to the massive flow of funds into the A-share market. With the exuberant performance of the stock market in 2006 attracting an increasing flood of funds into the A-share market, the market has grown massive enough for investors to begin seeking short-term profits by taking on blue chips when they used to speculate on comparatively smaller stocks. This has caused the share prices of bank stocks to climb astonishingly high compared to their book value. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Bank of China, two of the country's major commercial banks, had respectively jumped 76 percent and 37 percent by yesterday from their listing last year, much higher than the growth rate of their foreign counterparts such as Citigroup and Bank of America, which respectively saw 15 percent and 35 percent r
Read more: Stocks

Is China Economic Bubble Now ?
2007-01-03 10:29:00
Recently, I read two old articles about "China Economic Bubble " which are China report, part one: The China Bubble and Two Takes On China's Bubble Economy. Even these articles are not updated, they are good for your reference. In my opinion, China's own statistics is only a reference but you cannot totally believe the number. The GDP growth may largely higher than the central government statistics. It involves benefit conflict between local government and central government policy. Besides, Japanese-style collapse may also happen in China. In fact, many States Owned Enterprises expand their business in other countries but the quality of the purchased assets is questionable. For example, the purchase of IBM personal computer business is difficult to generate reasonable profit. The strategy of expanding overseas business in China is similar to Japanese-style collapse.


Invest to Last: 10 Timeless Principles
2006-11-15 12:38:00
Tony Measor is the author of "Invest to Last: 10 Timeless Principles ". Mr. Measor is Described as "the Warren Buffet of the East", Tony Measor has over 40 years of experience investing in Hong Kong, London and the Asia- Pacific Region. Mr Measor was the chief editor of the financial website Quamnet before he retired. His regular column Tony's Daily http://www.quamnet.com/tonyletter/welcome.html has a strong and wide subscription. He also writes for a popular weekly Next Magazine in Hong Kong. The investment portfolio in his columns has grown by 250% within a space of only five and a half years.Mr Measor has been a member of the committee of the stock exchanges of Malaysia and Singapore, a stockbroker, a journalist and a successful fund manager in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong stock fund he managed rank number one in 1987 and 1988, before and after the market crash. Table of Content: Introduction In My BloodPrinciple 1 Invest: Cash Is Not KingPrinciple 2 Be Your Own Fund Manager


The three easiest ways to invest China
2006-11-15 09:00:00
Recently, China invest ment becomes more and more popular in the world. In fact, the amount of transaction and the income of Hong Kong Stock Exchange have achieved one of the highest status. Actually, you have at least three easiest ways to share the economic growth of China from stock (securities) investment. The three ways are: (1) Purchase the China companies' ADR (2) Purchase stock units from Hong Kong stock market (3) Purchase the fund units which aim at investing China


Four typical types of rich people in China
2006-11-13 17:34:00
Recently, I read a article about the four typical types of rich people in China from a Hong Kong newspaper called MingPao. They are:(1) The people who are benefit from Post-1978 reforms. (Most of them benefit from corruption) (2) The people who earn a lot of money from investment market. (Only a small proportion because of the dramatically up and down) (3) The people who have high status of jobs especially IT and TMT industries. (4) Athlete or actor or actress


"Why is the income gap widening"
2006-11-10 20:16:00
Recently, I read an article called "Why is the income gap widening" which mentioned that there are three reasons for the disparity: social system structural problems, the difficulty of economic development and deficiencies in public policy. In my opinion, the China government should tackle the corruption problem primarily. It is because the public policy to take care the poor may become the local government corruption opportunity. The poor becomes poorer while the corrupted civil servants become richer. At the same time, the development in rural district and the use of market force (private enterprises participation) would more effective. No doubt, the income gap becomes a concerned topic in China. I believed that it can be a barrier of sustainable economic development. Then, how can the central government tackle the serious corruption problem is concerned. I believed that an independent anti-corruption organization is useful such as ICAC in Hong Kong. However, it is difficult to i


China's stock market to be 3rd largest soon
2007-01-15 15:28:00
From Financial Express BEIJING, JANUARY 15: The yuan-denominated A-share market of China will become world's third largest stock market in the next 10 years - after the stocks markets of United States and Japan, an expert from Goldman Sachs Group (Asia) Ltd said. Market value of Chinese stocks will reach USD 5 trillion in 2016 and USD 10 trillion in 2020, equivalent to 70 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), general manager of Goldman Sachs Group (Asia) Ltd, Hu Zuliu told the ongoing China Capital Market Forum in Beijing. [Read more]


China''s huge trade surplus to be reduced -- Commerce Minister
2007-01-16 17:02:00
From Kuwait News AgencyTOKYO, Jan 16 (KUNA) -- China will encourage imports and restrict exports this year in a bid to balance trade and ease the concerns of trading partners, Commerce Minister Bo Xilai has said state-run media reported Tuesday.Bo made the remarks as China's trade surplus widened to a record USD 177.5 billion in 2006, 74 percent higher than the USD 101.88 billion in 2005. If it grows at the same rate this year, the trade surplus will mount to USD 300 billion, which is "likely to transform an economic problem into a political one, the China Daily quoted Bo as saying.[Read more]Teddy's Comment: I think the large amount of trade surplus is one of the main reasons to form the bubble in stock and property market. This policy is not only reduce the conflict among their trading partners but also cool down the crazy stock and property market.
Read more: reduced

China stock feeding frenzy: Don't get bitten
2007-01-16 16:51:00
From Asia Times Online SHANGHAI - It seems everything is ready for China 's stock markets to embrace a "golden decade": the country's robust economic growth, the anticipated appreciation of the yuan, a strong rebound in the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses last year after successful reform to dispose of non-tradable state holdings, and plenty of money still flooding in. But recent market performance has government officials and some analysts concerned that a bubble is forming that could burst at any moment. In their view, investors and speculators alike are so keen to make staggering profits that the "golden decade" for growth potential could simply come to an end in just a couple of years. [Read more]
Read more: frenzy , bitten , feeding frenzy

Another chill for China's property sector
2007-01-18 17:51:00
From Asia Times Online By Kent Ewing HONG KONG - To prevent a possible economic recession caused by a bubble-burst in the property market - as happened in Japan in the 1990s - the Chinese government has taken more tough measures to cool down the sector . China will resume collection of a value-added tax (VAT) on land, which has been suspended for more than a decade, from property developers, the State Administration of Taxation said on its website on Tuesday. Formally effective from February 1, property developers will haveto pay 30-60% of their net gains as VAT on land. The administration said the tax will be collected as soon as a single development project is finished or transferred. On Thursday morning, share prices of mainland property developers continued to drop significantly on the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock exchanges. [Read more] Teddy's Commnet: China government seems prepare a comprehensive plan to tackle the property and stock market. The resume of VAT is a ver


China Profit-Tax Plan Rattles Developers
2007-01-21 13:19:00
From The Wall Street Journal Online SHANGHAI, China -- China took another step that could weaken investment in its booming property sector, announcing a profit tax on real-estate developers that will likely hit both domestic and foreign companies. But analysts said the move, which hammered property stocks, might do little to reduce the soaring property prices that officials worry are causing
Read more: Developers

Worried about China? Read on ...
2007-01-22 11:43:00
From CitywireThis worries me at least.From Reuters in Shanghai:'Chinese taxi drivers trade stocks from their cars via mobile phones, and housewives queue at brokerages with bags of cash.'And this worries me even more:'But investors have coined a phrase to describe China stock market's record-breaking bull run: a "rational bubble".'Which was what they said in 1999 during the last stage of the tech bubble when taxi drivers in New York started offering tips to their Wall Street passengers.[Read more]Teddy's Opinion: "Rational bubble" is really an interesting term.


What is your opinion on China economy ? Boom or Bubble ?
2007-01-28 20:16:00
By Teddy, blogger of "China Bubble Analysis" I found that many articles which talking about China Bubble in 2001. Those authors worried that the bubble burst would come soon but it seems they were wrong. Now, the worry of China Bubble Burst discuss widely again but the China government and overseas investors are concerning the risk of bubble (mainland China investors are except). With various economic adjustment policy, I suspect whether it is Boom or Bubble ? I also suspect whether the Bubble will burst soon. What is your opinion ?
Read more: economy

China: Probably a Bubble, Definitely Short-Term Overbought
2007-01-28 20:12:00
From SeekingAlpha Richard Shaw submits: Wall Street analysts are putting up warning flags. The Chinese government is taking measures to moderate their economic growth rate. Ordinary people in China are investing in melt-up panic in a 1929 fashion. Transparency is low and fundamental data is hard to obtain or compare to US fundamental stock data, but price action data is accurate and tells a disturbing story. Generally, stocks can only go up so rapidly, after which they must rest or decline. That's what Rate of Change [ROC] indicators are all about. Standard Deviation is an effective indicator of circumstances being "normal" or "abnormal". Abnormal circumstances tend to revert back into the normal range. [Read more]
Read more: Short , Probably , Bubble

Is the China bubble popping?
2007-02-03 03:31:00
From BloggingStocks Posted Feb 2nd 2007 4:22PM by Zac Bissonnette Filed under: International markets, Internet Marketwatch columnist John Shinal makes a strong case that China is in the midst of a bubble. The Shanghai Composite Index, which is up over 130%, dropped 5% in one day after Chinese official Cheng Siwei referred to the rise (perhaps best symbolized by Chinese homeowners who are taking out home equity loans to speculate in the stock market) as a bubble. There were shades of Alan Greenspan's irrational exuberance speech (which was reacted to in a similar fashion and then largely as ignored as Greenspan kept quiet for the rest of the bull market) in Siwei's statement? [Read more]


Fears grow of China 'bubble'
2007-02-04 09:35:00
From This is MoneyA leading figure in the Chinese financial world has warned that China 's stock market is developing into a 'bubble' and investors are in danger of behaving irrationally.Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the National People's Congress, said that the mainland stock market was in danger of overheating after a 130% rise last year.The Shanghai stock market hit a record high last week as investors hoovered up shares from a spate of Initial Public Offerings.In an interview with the Financial Times, Siwei said: 'There is a bubble going on. Investors should be concerned about the risks. But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally.[Read more]
Read more: Fears

Chinese shares fall as key Shanghai Index drops 4%
2007-02-04 09:34:00
From China Post Chinese stocks tumbled Friday as investors sold holdings in financial companies to free funds for subscriptions in an initial public offering by Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.03 percent to 2,673.21. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index shed 2.8 percent to 640.88. "Investors are taking profits on financial shares on concerns they are too expensive after strong rises in past months, and Ping An's offering provides a good opportunity for them to buy cheaper shares in the primary market," said Chen Huiqin, an analyst at Huatai Securities. China Life Insurance slid 7.2 percent to 35.99 yuan; CITIC Securities declined 7.3 percent to 33.16 yuan and China Merchants Bank fell 4.5 percent to 16.15 yuan.[Read more]


Asian Stocks Post Biggest Weekly Gain in 2 Months; China Drops
2007-02-04 09:22:00
From BloombergBy Chen ShiyinFeb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks posted their biggest weekly gain in two months, led by companies such as Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Alumina Ltd. that reported higher earnings.``Corporate profits in Asia have generally come in line, or beaten expectations and that's added to the buoyancy of the markets,'' said Elan Cohen, a Singapore-based fund manager with JPMorgan Private Bank, which has $350 billion in assets.[Read more]
Read more: China , Stocks , Weekly , Months , Drops

Asian shares close mixed, China A-shares sharply lower on tightening fears
2007-02-04 09:10:00
From Forbes HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Shares across the Asia-Pacific region closed mixed, with some markets boosted by Wall Street's rise overnight but Tokyo flat on profit taking and China A-shares sharply lower on fears of further government tightening, dealers said. Tokyo shares closed flat, having shed gains made during the course of the day in response to the release of healthy corporate quarterly results, dealers said. [Read more]
Read more: Asian

Viewpoint: Irrational exuberance in China
2007-02-05 15:28:00
From International Herald Tribune To say that Chinese love to gamble would be a gross cultural generalization. Then again, one could be excused for assuming as much, considering how the world's gambling industry is going after China 's bettors. From Las Vegas to Macao and Monte Carlo to Sydney, gambling magnates are luring more Chinese their way. Gambling, you see, is illegal in mainland China. Then again, who needs baccarat tables and roulette wheels when you have China's stock market? China's equity exchanges have long had more in common with casinos than markets. Investors were reminded of that on Jan. 31 when China's stocks tumbled the most in at least 21 months after a lawmaker said shares were overvalued. The comments by Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, fueled speculation the government will act to limit investment. Speaking in Dubai, Cheng said only 30 percent of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange "are good to invest in by Western
Read more: Viewpoint , Irrational , Irrational exuberance

Viewpoint: Irrational exuberance in China
2007-02-05 15:17:00
From International Herald Tribune To say that Chinese love to gamble would be a gross cultural generalization. Then again, one could be excused for assuming as much, considering how the world's gambling industry is going after China 's bettors. From Las Vegas to Macao and Monte Carlo to Sydney, gambling magnates are luring more Chinese their way. Gambling, you see, is illegal in mainland China. Then again, who needs baccarat tables and roulette wheels when you have China's stock market? China's equity exchanges have long had more in common with casinos than markets. Investors were reminded of that on Jan. 31 when China's stocks tumbled the most in at least 21 months after a lawmaker said shares were overvalued. The comments by Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, fueled speculation the government will act to limit investment. Speaking in Dubai, Cheng said only 30 percent of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange "are good to invest in by Western
Read more: Viewpoint , Irrational , Irrational exuberance

China property market slowing is unlikely
2007-02-06 17:13:00
From Pak Real Estate BEIJING: Strong demand means China "s property market is unlikely to cool down for the time being, a senior official said on Monday, arguing that moderate price increases were natural. "I don"t think (the real estate market) is very likely to cool down as demand in China remains very strong," Sun Kefang, director of the construction ministry"s Housing Industrialisation


China's banks told to block loans for stock investments
2007-02-06 17:09:00
From IHT BEIJING: China 's banks have been ordered to step up scrutiny of loans to prevent borrowing for stock investments, a state news agency said Tuesday, while a lawmaker warned investors to be cautious about putting more money into surging Chinese markets. China's government prohibits bank lending for stock market investment but a rise in stock prices last year led to an increase in buying
Read more: block

A sounder market
2007-02-06 17:05:00
From China Daily The latest regulations to improve China's stock market may not bring immediate cheer to the get-rich-quick investors who lost paper riches in the recent market adjustment. But long-term investors should feel encouraged by the securities regulators' ongoing efforts to improve the basic operation of the market. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) policies are


HSBC says no bubble in Chinese stocks
2007-02-07 17:02:00
From ReutersHONG KONG (Reuters) - The bullish trend that drove Chinese stocks to record highs in January remains intact and worries about a bubble are unfounded, said a top HSBC fund manager, who sees consumer and airline stocks as best bets.Valuations for Chinese stocks remain well below peak levels seen in 1997 and 2000 and the market still lags its peers Brazil, Russia and India in terms of performance on a three-year basis, said Richard Wong, equities investment director at HSBC's Halbis fund management arm.Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, or H shares , trade at around 15 times 2007 earnings, while mainland stocks trade at about 19 times after a massive rally last year, compared with 30 and 60 times, respectively, during 1997.[Read more]
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