Owner: Technical analysis of stocks in SG URL:http://traderstudent.blogspot.com Join Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2007 21:06:38 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: Application and analysis using technical analysis of stocks in SG with charts frequently added and updated. Site statistics:Click here
Brief respite 2007-10-04 08:59:00 Straits Times Index has 2 upside gaps that were formed and currently one of them is being tested as support. The gaps are near the level of 3726 and 3660 and i have marked them with horizontal lines. Currently STI seem to have found support on the 2nd upside gap. By candlestick charting, STI formed a tweezer bottoms with a harami near 3754 so this level should hold as a good level of support in the short term. Today's white candlestick was formed with low volume and coupled with bearish divergence in the RSI and the A/D line, i am quite bearish about STI now. I am getting ready to exit my positions the moment they touch my stop loss point.Straits Times Index Chart:I will post a chart on the HSI since the Hang Seng's movement has been affecting the STI's movement recently.Hang Seng Chart:There was movement in yongnam as it formed a white candlestick with relatively heavy volume today. Moreover, CSC and Koh Bros found support on the charts that i charted in my previous post despite ST Read more:Brief
, respite
Comrades not moving 2007-10-02 09:54:00 Today, all the china stocks did not continue yesterday's rally. I saw a lot of dark cloud covers for the china stocks so they should be trending sideways or downwards in the short term. Dow Jones broke the prior resistance of 14026 with quite heavy volume. The movement of Dow Jones has been diverging from that of the Straits Times Index so but i will just post the chart up for reference.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:Below are some charts which i tink are ripe for a trade entry based on technical analysis only.HLG broke out of it's ascending triangle with high volume. With RSI still not in the overbought region, this seems like a great point for a trade entry.HLG Chart:The construction sector seems to be rallying. Below are some of the charts that are related.Koh Bros is having a breakout of the ascending triangle. But the price seems to go too far for a trade entry perhaps.Koh Bros Chart:CSC is showing an healthy uptrend with an increasing price action and expanding volume.CSC C
China stocks in play 2007-10-01 11:25:00 I wanted to place a long on sino-env and delong today so i woke up at 10am. By then, sino-env and delong has risen too far for me to place a long without taking too much risk. For the record, when i log in at 1030am, sino-env has already rise by close to 20% if my eyes were not playing tricks on me. So i miss out of the china play altogether for this week but at least my fren din since i told him to place a long quite some time ago so now he owes me a meal :)Right now, i do tink there is a lot of speculation on china stocks. Basically every stock that had the word China
in it went straight north through the roof. Such a sudden upwards movement is prone to retracement. I am looking for a retracement with flags formation on low volume this time round perhaps.Quite a lot of indices are showing bearish divergence and that includes the Shanghai Stock Exchange with both MACD and RSI showing bearish divergence. I am not doubting the charts or the technical indicators but i do think my trading
Picks of the week 2007-09-29 08:58:00 Time for my weekend review again. For the short-term, the upwards movement of the Dow Jones is not confirmed by the declining volume. It closed with a black candlestick with relatively heavy volume so there is a bit of bearishness. In my opinion, there is still some way to go before the Dow Jones test the important resistance of around 14026 so i am currently feeling slightly bearish regarding the movement of Dow Jones.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:Regarding the Straits Times Index, i must admit i was a bit surprised when it reaches a new high despite the Dow Jones not doing so. Due to this, i was quite reluctant in buying for last week. So far STI has been diverging from the Dow Jones and ever since i started this blog, the movement of STI almost always parallel that of the Dow Jones so it's been a learning experience for me.Currently STI is supported on it's previous resistance at around 3652 and a successful testing of this level confirms this. Since no index history can be r
Breaking through the roof 2007-09-27 08:44:00 STI broke it's resistance level today with great volume and that is extremely bullish. This week has been a good time for picking up counters indeed. 2 of the 3 counters i mentioned in my previous post are heading north like what i forecasted using technical analysis but i was not in any of them so it's a shame indeed.Straits Times Index Chart:ChinaKangda caused me a lot of heartache. I told a fren of mine to place a long cos a double bottoms was confirmed using technical analysis. But somehow i did not enter cos i was hoping that ChinaKangda will retrace back to the level of $0.42 with low volume and this level will offer an excellent opportunity for a trade entry. However, this counter just flew off the roof and i was left behind. I tink it's better to vent my frustration out through blogging here den to buy another counter on impulse without being clear-headed. If i am to survive in the market, i must control my emotions and not let it affect my analysis and any decisions that i Read more:Breaking
A shooting star 2007-09-25 12:28:00 STI currently resisted at the previous resistance of around 3652. Given that it formed a shooting
star on today's closing, it is not likely to break this resistance level in the short term though this resistance in my opinion is a minor resistance level.Strait Times Index Chart:Dow Jones currently trending sideways as seen by the rectangle and it is supported on the shaven long white candlestick made 5 closings ago. Nothing conclusive to say about Dow Jones as of now.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:
Start of a new week 2007-09-24 11:04:00 STI formed a shaven white candlestick which is a sign of bullishness since it managed to close at it's high of the day. I am unable to get the volume of the closing for today so can't really confirm the strength of this candlestick. STI is now quite close to it's resistance level of around 3691. I notice that this previous upside gap occurred after this uptrend has been underway for some time already so this may be an exhaustion gap which is not good but as of now, nothing is confirmed yet.Straits Times Index Chart:A lot of charts seem to be ripe for a trade entry so i will post some charts for reference here.Chartered seems to be forming a base pattern. RSI and MACD are showing bullish divergence so this counter may perhaps be moving north soon. The 3 resistances line formed by the 50d n 100d EMA and the 200d MA are the only things that make me cautious.Chartered Chart:ChinaKangda has been appearing in the top movers section. Today it formed a confirmed double bottoms with a breako Read more:Start
STI not following Dow Jones 2007-09-22 10:34:00 Dow Jones has been heading north for the past few closings and we can see that the volume has been rising too so volume is confirming index action and this is healthy indeed. Currently, the support is near 13700 and hopefully we will be seeing it testing the 14020 region soon.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:The Straits Times Index dun seem to be following the movement of the Dow Jones and i am finding this very puzzling. STI reacted 1st to the Dow by having a huge gap upwards and it has been heading south slowly ever since. Let's see how STI test the upside gap in subsequent closing and see whether it finds support on this gap.Straits Times Index Chart:I dun post frequently on the SESDAQ chart but today i took a look at it. There was a gap formed in August and this gap was tested not long ago but it failed to close the gap. It will be significant if the gap is closed in future closings.UOB SESDAQ chart:I also took a look at the sector indices today and this is also something which
Breaking through the ceiling 2007-09-19 08:29:00 Today seems to be good looking at the charts. For the Dow Jones, we can see from the chart that it has broke the stubborn resistance of the level of around 13700 and it broke with high volume. That is certainly bullish in my opinion.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:On the chart of the Straits Times Index, it seems to be pretty good. For the latest closing, STI closed with a huge upside gap which i haven seen for a really long time. However something disturbs me and that is the doji-like candlestick or perhaps a hanging man that was formed today with heavy volume. I reviewed the list of counters that i was monitoring and i hardly see any white candlesticks or any bullish divergence. Black candlesticks and especially dojis or hanging man were seen more frequently instead. Maybe the list of counters i am monitoring is not exhaustive enough but i can only come to the conclusion that quite a lot of ppl are selling into strength today. Well, perhaps i may be wrong.Straits Times Index Chart Read more:Breaking
F&N chart showing retracement 2007-09-17 10:19:00 Currently, F&N chart showing retracement on light volume. $5.21 has been tested successfully with the low of today touching it and the counter managed to close above it. It's a classic example of a retracement with light volume in technical analysis and this offers an excellent point for a trade entry.F&N chart:
Late weekend review 2007-09-16 12:37:00 I been busy with my academic stuff for this week so i din post on sat night. Besides that i do tink that i am blogging too much for the sake of blogging so from this point onwards, i am only going to post if i think that it is necessary. Blogging has been a way to show myself that technical analysis works and to keep track and make a record of my forecasts. I will definitely still post regularly but not so much for the sake of blogging anymore.Nothing much to say about the Dow Jones. It's been doing well in my opinion. There is a chance that it may form a hanging man but this has to be confirmed on the next closing. Otherwise i am seeing it as a successful testing of the 50d EMA. The sentiment of the market is reflected in the charts so i must say it seems to me people are generally optimistic about the coming release of news in a few days time going by how the charts look. Main thing to watch will be the resistance level of around 13700.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:Following th Read more:review
Downside gap as resistance 2007-09-13 10:59:00 I noticed something which i overlooked before in the chart of STI. There was a downside gap in late july and this is now acting as resistance. But the downside gap is quite small actually to speak of. Another thing is a reminder to myself, and that is the overall increase in index is not confirmed by increasing volume. In fact, volume has been decreasing steadily. Since increase in index is not confirmed by volume, one should remain cautious.Straits Times Index Chart:I noticed that a quite lot of charts in the list of charts which i am monitoring seem to have bottom out and are rebounding already. I do believe this rebound should last til the period where STI and the Dow Jones hit their major resistance level which i mentioned in my previous posts. Read more:Downside
Charts dun lie 2007-09-12 10:12:00 Today DMX Tech rocketed up towards north. I posted this chart a few weeks ago when it was showing huge A/D bullish divergence from price action. From candlestick charting, i knew that there was a great chance that it has bottomed out as it tested $0.44 for many times and 2 dojis were formed. I din expect it to rebound back so fast. Woah !DMX Tech Chart:Contary to what i expected, F&N broke through the triple resistance of the 50d and 100d EMA and the 200d MA. The market is always correct and i am wrong. Now F&N seems like a good buying opportunity now with those 3 moving averages acting as support. A retracement with low volume would be an excellent point for a trade entry.F&N chart: Read more:Charts
Safe for a little while 2007-09-11 10:34:00 True to my forecast, the shaven candlesticks formed on previous closings held as support as the Dow Jones closed with a doji-like candlestick testing the level of around 13040. Thus a higher low is still not being breached by the latest closing. This is quite bullish to speak of.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:Looking at the chart of the Straits Times Index, there seems to be a breakout of the wedge formation and today's closing pierced the resistive trendline. The good news is the volume dun seem to be light today. However, i feel the trendline may not be that valid so in order to prevent whipsaw, i should wait for tomolo's closing. Otherwise it should be a good time to enter but with caution.Straits Times Index Chart:I tink this might be late news but i do tink that the shipping sector counters is in play perhaps. I notice STX PO and Jiutian have heading north recently. But they rose much faster than i expected. Currently i am waiting for it to retrace back but perhaps it may no Read more:little
Monday blues unlikely 2007-09-10 08:55:00 Today the Straits Times Index gap down but it close higher den it's opening. Notice how it gap down and got supported on the trendline so this trendline dat i drew is valid. Gotta see how STI test the downside gap in subsequent closings. Given the lighter volume accompanied with a gap down formed today, I believe STI should trend upwards in the short-term.Straits Times Index Chart: Read more:Monday
F&N chart 2007-09-09 12:36:00 A good friend of mine alerted me to this counter and he tink this counter is worth shorting.1. The 50d EMA and the 200d MA are acting as resistance2. 38.2% Fibbonacci retracement acting as resistance too3. $5.21 has been tested thrice and price action failed to close above it4. A/D line fails to make a new highF & N chart:
Weekend review again ! 2007-09-08 11:00:00 It is the time of the week to forecast the probable trend for next week yet again. I usually post on Sat cos on friday night, the Dow Jones still got one more closing to go, so there is no point to do any review
since the Dow Jones always lead the Straits Times Index.Anyway i did read up on Decipher's blog which is the blog named art of growing money yesterday. He dun post that frequently in his blog nowadays but he wrote a very detailed and good post on his blog for his latest posting. I am learning quite a lot from his latest posting and he is offering some insights which i have missed in my charting.For the Dow Jones, it closed with a long black candlestick with heavy volume on the latest closing. Furthermore it broke the 50d and 100d EMA in one single closing. However a higher high and low has been confirmed so going by Dow theory, we are in a theoretical bullish phase though in my opinion, this is a weak bull phase.I noticed that a few closings ago, there were a pair of black and Read more:Weekend
Signs of recovery 2007-09-05 08:13:00 Things are certainly looking better now. Looking at the chart of the Dow Jones, it found support on the 50d EMA. Notice how it closed with heavy volume and a higher high has already been confirmed since the latest closing has exceeded the prior high. Volume has also been increasing. The next test will be the 13700 resistance level.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:For the Straits Time Index, the chart is also looking good. It closed with a shaven white candlestick with heavy volume so this is a good sign. However the closing happens to close just below the 1.5 years old trendline so a close above it, like what i said in my previous few post, will be very significant.Straits Times Index Chart:
Beginning of the week 2007-09-04 09:25:00 Nothing interesting on the charts yesterday so din blog yesterday. Well, the market has been singing the same tune for the past one to two months so i am really doing lots of waiting now.I spotted something on the STI chart today. The level of near 3406 is now acting as resistance. Coincidentally, the 100d EMA is near that level too. So there are two levels of resistance acting around the same level so this is one tough resistance to break.I notice how STI has tested this level for the past 3 closings by having a high that reached that level but it failed to close above this level. If it can reach that level and failed to close above it, i consider this to be bearish. If it break above that level, that level will likely be a support level for the next few days. Notice also how the volume is also very light for the past 2 days but i am not drawing any deductions from this piece of information. Now i'm just waiting for a higher high to happen.Straits Times Index Chart:
Weekend review 2007-09-01 12:20:00 Kinda sad to see mimosa restricting his blog to invited guests only. He has been offering very good analysis of the market and i often visit his blog to learn more stuff. Well, i just lost one source of learning about the market :(Looking at the chart of the Dow Jones for the friday's closing, it managed to break the resistive trendline that was being resisted on 3 occasions and found support near the 100d EMA which happens to correspond with the support level of 13252. This is definitely a good sign as now we have seen the Dow Jones making a higher low and it has closed above the 50d EMA. The next resistance is at 13700 so there will be some chance perhaps to add in counters and hold until the Dow Jones reach 13700.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:The chart of the Straits Times Index also displayed quite similiar technical factors as the Dow Jones. As said in my previous forecast, the STI closed between the 38.2% and 50% fibbonacci retracement. Looking at the chart of STI, i saw so Read more:review
, Weekend
Middle of nowhere 2007-08-30 09:13:00 Today i redrew the charts for the Dow Jones and the Straits Times Index cos things were starting to get messy. On a personal note, i dun reli like to add in the fibbonacci retracement level cos there are so many horizontal lines so i gotten rid of those on the Dow Jones chart. It still remain intact for the STI chart.For the latest closing, Dow Jones formed a harami candlestick due to a black candlestick on the 2nd previous closing and a white candlestick on the previous closing whose open and close are within the black candlestick. The harami candlestick formation is slightly bullish so i am expecting the Dow Jones to trend sideways or go down until further technical indicators suggest otherwise. Notice also how the white candlestick has a heavier volume. Dow Jones will be hitting the resistive trendline soon so a break of this trendline will be good news since this trendline has been resisted 3 times.On a side note, i kinda toy with the idea of the point of death on the chart. It's
Rebounding off resistance 2007-08-29 10:35:00 Through technical analysis, we saw how the Dow Jones rebounded off the trendline that was drawn on the chart a few posts ago and it closed down sharply on the latest closing. If the Dow Jones fall, it should land around the area of 13000 due to a confluence of technical indicators.1. It is near the fibbonacci retracement of 50% and 61.8%2. 200d MA is quite near the level3. The previous low for this current trend and the previous high from the uptrend that ended in Feb 07 is near the level of 13000.We shall see how the Dow Jones approach the 50% fibbonacci retracement which is an important landmark on the charts. Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:Nothing much to say about the Straits Times Index. Currently seem to be supported on the 200d MA and subsequent trends will be dependent on the Dow Jones. I posted a chart for reference and future keepsake. Straits Times Index Chart:Ausgroup has retraced back from the breakout of $1.74 and is now forming a hammer testing the upside gap on the
Index forecast currently on track 2007-08-28 10:32:00 Currently my forecast from previous posts for the charts of Dow Jones and STI using Technical Analysis is on track. Nothing unusual today, cos the market still singing the same tune and that is index moving up and yet the volume is declining.Anyway take a look at the purple line which is touching the previous tops. I drew this line in the previous posts and on the latest closing of the Dow Jones, the index failed to move above this purple line and closed just on the line itself. A bit too coincidental ? That is technical analysis in action :)Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart: Read more:Index
Similiar charts 2007-08-27 11:31:00 In my last post, i posted that Dow Jones will have a weak rally due to volume not confirming price action. Today's closing of the STI is just a repeat of my previous post. From the chart of STI, the price action went higher but the volume is very light. Furthermore, it rebounded off the 1.5 years old resistive trendline. So my conclusion is that this rally for STI is very weak. We will be seeing how STI will test the upside gap soon.Straits Times Index Chart:I have been feeling very baffled by the chart of DMX Tech. It's my 1st time encountering such a chart like this. This is because of 2 reasons. The 1st reason is that the A/D line is showing huge bullish divergence and yet the price action continues to go lower. So accumulation is probably taking place. The 2nd reason is that when the price action is moving down, it formed a lot of trend reversal candlesticks at possible support levels, mainly at $0.545 and $0.5 but yet the downtrend continues. I can probably count like 5 hammers
Volume not confirming rebound 2007-08-25 12:34:00 Well, the above title of the post says it all. A very basic tenet of technical analysis is that volume should confirm price action. Basically if the price action goes higher, the volume should expand instead of decline. A look at the chart of Dow Jones reveals though price action broke out of the crucial horizontal resistance of around 13247, the trading volume was light. Thus volume did not confirm price action for this breakout. As of now, i expect this rebound to be weak. Some possible scenario would be that the price action rebound off the resistive trendline and get supported at around 13247.There may be some profits to be made for ppl who contra or short but my trading time frame is much longer than this so my current position is to stay out and observe the market further.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:On a side note, i am reminded that the more times the market fails to make a higher high or break a resistance, chances are that the market will be 'lethargic' and a very ste Read more:Volume
STI forecast 2007-10-16 09:24:00 The Straits Times Index went south today and things are looking bearish. The closing today broke the support trendline which was drawn from the beginning of this rally in Aug and the resistance trendline which was drawn connecting the prior resistance levels. Volume-wise, it looks bearish since the volume is relatively heavy. All the 3 technical indicators that i used has trendlines which were broken. Furthemore, the MACD line cross over the signal line and this is bearish.Straits Times Index :On a personal note, i visited the channelnewsasia forum and i saw quite a lot of threads on the loss that people had due to the drop in STI today. Some even lost their life savings. And we are not even talking about a few weeks drop but just a drop in a single day so i reckon it is important to have a stop loss and protect ur capital. The more savvy traders had their profits built up from the beginning of this bull run already so when STI drops today, they liquidate their positions and still had
Marine counters creeping ? 2007-10-15 11:14:00 I been noticing 3 counters
showing a lot of symmetry in the charts. The 3 counters are CourageMa, BH global and CH offshore. ASL marine seems to be showing some symmetry too but not that similar i guess and they are from the marine sector.First to breakout was CourageMa today. I can't really define a single resistance line but the resistance range will be from $0.445 to $0.46 so today it tested $0.465 with high volume but failed to close above and closed at $0.455. Currently it's supported by a trendline which is supported thrice and is in the middle of the channel. The charts of these 3 counters are very similar and it seems to me that BH global and CH offshore will be testing their resistance soon for this week. It may present an excellent opportunity for profits. The only thing stopping me now is the violent and volatile market now.CourageMa :BH global:CH offshore: Read more:Marine
Weekend review of market 2007-10-13 11:23:00 First chart on this post goes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Currently it's supported on the previous resistance of around 14036. RSI is showing bearish divergence while MACD seems to be showing it too.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:Next on my list will be the Hang Seng Index. STI seems to be volatile these days and HSI seems to affect intra day movement on quite a lot of occasions. I added in the weekly chart cos i believe this will contribute to the forecast of any major movement and thus a better analysis can be performed. On the daily chart, both RSI and the MACD histogram are showing bearish divergence. For the weekly chart, we can see that HSI is supported on the trendline though the weekly RSI is showing bearish divergence too.Hang Seng Index Weekly Chart:Hang Seng Index Daily Chart:On the daily chart, STI seems to be supported on the resistive trendline. But it rebounded off the resistance for the RSI technical indicator. On the weekly chart, it seems to reveal more Read more:Weekend
, review
Signs of impending danger perhaps 2007-10-10 09:30:00 I know it does not take any technical analysis to tell us that today's drop for the Straits Times Index was really bad. I can see one huge black almost shaven candlestick staring back at me. But i may have something more to offer. By candlestick charting, a shaven candlestick and that is a candlestick where the low and the closing of the day are the same is a bearish signal. The fact that the yesterday's small white candlestick was within today's black candlestick formed a bearish engulfing pattern and this is a bearish signal too. Add to that another factor and that is the today's volume was quite heavy is also another bearish signal.By technical analysis, today's closing seems to be a breach of the trendline that is supporting it but it might be a whipsaw. Furthermore, RSI got resisted yet again by the horizontal resistance level. So things are looking bearish. However, the level of around 3814 seems like a strong short-term support going by the candlesticks so let's just see h Read more:perhaps
Stop loss activated + lesson learnt 2007-10-09 09:45:00 Today i liquidated my position in HLG after it broke the support line of $0.385 yesterday. I took a small loss though i must say it was quite painful. I can still recall the reasons that i bought this counter. Basically, it was a breakout of an ascending triangle with high volume and it pierced through the resistance of $0.385 which was a downside gap previously. Furthermore, RSI not being in the overbought region makes the deal look even sweeter. So all the technical factors were right for this counter. But alas, it did not go the way as it's supposed to be. This counter did not rally after the breakout and it fell on it's own weight.HLG chart:It's not the first time this has happen. A few months ago, i posted in my blog that Hi-P had a triple bottoms breakout but the same thing happened. After the breakout, Hi-P did not rally and it fell on it's own weight too. I guess technical analysis is not fool-proof and there will be times like this. I posted in my blog previously that Chin Read more:lesson
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