Owner: Technical analysis of stocks in SG URL:http://traderstudent.blogspot.com Join Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2007 21:06:38 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: Application and analysis using technical analysis of stocks in SG with charts frequently added and updated. Site statistics:Click here
Rain doused off the bears 2007-12-05 10:53:00 Today's rally was a surprise to me given that the Dow Jones din move much at all for the past few closings. I guess somehow the heavy rain today made the bears all went into hiding as the STI rallied strongly today :DFor the rally today, STI tested the 100d MA again and failed to close above it. The last test was 3 closings ago. Notice that the 100d MA is near the level of the previous gap down so this forms a level of resistance. Furthermore, the combination of the last 3 candlesticks formed a tweezer tops and currently, i would establish the next level of resistance that is to be broken to be around 3580.I dun think it's much of a problem since STI has already formed a higher high and a higher low. By Dow theory, this signifies a uptrend as stated in my previous posts.Straits Times Index:Asia Env has finally covered the gap down made in late july at around $0.80. That in itself is a piece of bullish news. Today's closing was strong as it closed with a long shaven white candlestick
Kiss of death for Golden Agri 2007-12-04 10:06:00 I spotted a classic chart today and that is Golden
Agri. This counter has been trending upwards very well along with Wilmar and IndoAgri for the past one or two months. We can see in late Oct, it broke out of it's channel resistance and this resistance trendline turn support subsequently. It broke this support trendline 3 closings ago and today it tested this trendline as this trendline changes from support to resistance. U can see how this counter tested the trendline by forming a 'wick' on the candlestick and that's what i call as the kiss of death
. Furthermore, the volume was very light today. So technically speaking, this counter is likely to head south.Golden Agri:For indices-wise, everything is going as i expected. Currently there is no retracements and it has been closing flat for the past few closings. We should see some movement soon.
Analysis of some counters 2007-12-21 10:54:00 It's weekend again and christmas is coming. Seems to me that the market is bullish today as a lot of counters
rallied.Yangzijiang rallied up today with heavy volume and that is a good sign. Furthermore, there is bullish divergence in the RSI. Notice that the $1.86 level proved once again to be a crucial support technically as it bounced off from here. Next resistance will be the confluence of the 50d and 100d MAs and the prior top of $2.19. A breach of the $2.19 resistance will result in the formation of double bottoms.Yangzijiang:ChinaAOil has been in my watchlist for a long time. Notice from the chart that the level of $1.97 has been a strong support technically and it seems to have test the support successfully this time too. However, the volume seems low today so i guess it's better to observe further.ChinaAOil:Dow Jones haven close yet as of now so i will be posting on what i think about the indices tomolo :) Read more:Analysis
STI taking a break 2007-12-19 09:43:00 A lot of counters tested their November lows today again and some of the counters did not make it this time round. However, it seems to me that the STI is holding well at the support level mentioned in my previous post.Yangzijiang seem to have broke it's strong support of $1.86. It closed at $1.85 today so it might be prudent to wait for the next closing to confirm that the support has been breached.Yangzijiang:China Hongxin broke the 200d MA and the trendline and that is extremely bearish. I placed a long today, only to see it breach it's support level during the day to my surprise. So in the end, i got out by taking a small loss near the closing. I believe this counter should plunge all the way down and it is a prime candidate for shorting.China Hongxin:
A Merry X`mas indeed ? 2007-12-18 11:00:00 Yesterday, i saw the Dow Jones broke the 200d MA and i tot that was ominous enough. To my surprise, STI and HSI did not plunge further but STI rallied instead. Now as i am looking at the Dow Jones, it opened on a gap up. I must say i was quite taken aback since usually Dow leads the HSI and STI and now the vice versa has happened.STI was supported on the previous support level made in the Nov correction. Today's volume was heavier den the previous down days and that is good. That is a good chance that it may hold at this level.Straits Times Index:Today, a lot of counters tested their November correction level successfully. This represent a good chance to enter at a good reward to risk ratio. Nothing is absolute in any analysis so if this November correction level fails to hold, it will be time to get out to limit losses. Below are some counters which are at a strong level of support.China Hongxin is supported on the 200d MA and a trendline that goes all the way back to March. Notice t Read more:Merry
Downtrend continues 2007-12-17 20:51:00 Dow Jones broke the 200d MA on the latest closing and that is very ominous. It closed with a nearly shaven long black candlestick.Dow Jones Industrial Average:The Straits Times Index covered back the previous gap down with another huge candlestick and that is bearish. There are some important support area that is going to be tested soon. They are the previous dip made in november and the orange trendline.Straits Times Index:I spotted Celestial testing a very important support level of $1.03. Notice this level has been tested successfully thrice and it stretches all the way back to June last year. At this point of time, it is testing this level so we shall see how it goes.Celestial:I just sold off my position at a small loss. Right now, i will be taking a break of few days cos my mind and my heart is not ready to look at any charts. Guess it is better to stop and reflect on my mistakes den to plunge straight in and make more irrational decisions. For a start, it's been very tiring to h
2nd STI and DJIA weekend review for Dec 2007-12-15 11:38:00 It's been a turmoil for this trading week and to be honest, i did not expect this to happen. I din think it will retrace so badly but i guess i gotta change my mindset and go with the market.The Dow Jones suffered a huge drop on the latest closing and the volume was significantly heavy. It closed near it's low but notice that it closed around the level of the previous two lows. Currently it is near the 50% fibbonacci retracement level and it will be testing the 200d MA. Short-term wise, the current level should hold but it is always prudent to wait for it to bottom out.Dow Jones Industrial Average:It's a bad week for the Straits Times Index. It breached the 200d MA and covered back one of the previous gap down. The support trendline for the RSI has been broken. The next level of support will be an another previous gap down as gaps can act as support.Straits Times Index:Monday's opening for the STI will be a gap down for most counters due to DJIA's poor closing. It's a reminder no Read more:review
Buying momentum still not back 2007-12-12 08:14:00 Today was a pivotal day as we observe the impact of the outcome of the Fed meeting. Apparently, the rate cut was not enough and the markets opened with a gap down.The Dow Jones closed with a huge black candlestick and landed on the 100d MA thus the 100d MA is the support for now.Dow Jones Industrial Average:The Straits Times Index opened with a gap down but managed to close higher den it's opening with a small white candlestick. However, it is noted that the volume is still very light.Straits Times Index:It seems that what i hoped for did not come true in the end. The Fed meeting did not bring back the buying momentum
because the rate cuts were not enough. This can be seen in the extremely low volume for the STI today.Overall, i am still bullish cos technically speaking, the uptrend for both the DJIA and the STI is still intact. In fact, i think today is a good day to load up simply because due to the rate cuts, the market is grossly oversold today. Furthermore, though most counters o Read more:Buying
Weekend review of STI and DJIA 2007-12-23 09:34:00 This post will be a very simple one. The Dow theory worked relatively well in the previous corrections though by the time it is confirmed, it is a bit late in catching bottoms. Rather it can be used to confirm bottoms. A higher high and a higher low will confirm a uptrend and a lower high and a lower low will confirm a downtrend.For the Dow Jones, it can be seen from the chart that a higher low has been confirmed. Going by how it pierces the peak of the index action, a higher high has also been confirmed thus this implies that a uptrend is in place. Notice that the latest closing was done with heavy volume.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the Straits Times Index, a slighter higher low has been confirmed and a higher high is also in the making. Thus this should signifies a uptrend is taking place.Straits Times Index: Read more:review
, Weekend
Weekend review of DJIA and STI 2008-03-09 10:36:00 There has been some important movements for the Dow Jones. On thursday, it broke the 61.8% fibbonacci retracement support level. This means that technically speaking, we are likely to see it testing the January low level of around 11700 somewhere this week. The only thing is that the volume is not that heavy with this current dip so it's a minor thing in my humble opinion.I dun profess to be able to predict the future so I reckon there are 2 ways which the DJIA can move in subsequent closings. 1st of all, the Fed meeting which can swing the markets is on the 18th of March which is 9 days away from the time of this post. During this period of 9 days, we should see DJIA dipping to around 11700 and hover for a while. It may swing up slightly depending on any rumors of the outcome of the Fed c Read more:Weekend
, review
DJIA on minor support 2008-03-06 11:45:00 Dow Jones is currently supported at it's prior support level and the 61.8% fibbonacci level. Any break below this level and we will see it likely to dip all the way to the lows in Jan.Dow Jones Industrial Average:I was chatting on La Papillion's shoutbox when someone pointed out Swiber to me. A look at the chart reveals that it may be ripe for a short perhaps. We see the support level of $2 being tested twice in the past and now it is near this level again. Notice that the volume is picking up and if $2 is broken, one may place a short near this region.Swiber:
Minor trendline testing for DJIA 2008-03-04 10:14:00 Last seen on monday, DJIA formed a doji or a hammer candlestick on the minor trendline. This seems to suggest that a short-term support has been found. We just gotta see whether this trendline holds this time.Dow Jones Industrial Average:SembMar seems to be doing good except that it is doing great heading south. Technically speaking, there was a prior gap up at $3.58 and it is acting as a resistance level. Today, it tested this level successfully as a resistance level so this should be a good entry point for shorts.SembMar:I added a link to the Fed meeting dates since they are important dates which can swing the market. It's troublesome for me to google it and access that URL from the search results. Now i just need to visit my blog and I will know the dates straightaway :) Read more:Minor
Weekend review of DJIA and STI 2008-03-02 10:13:00 In my last post, i spotted a doji forming on a resistive trendline on the Dow Jones. And the very next thing was it rebounded off the resistive trendline and it closed very badly on last Friday's closing. I am more inclined to suggest that the candlestick for DJIA on monday should be relatively small since it is unlikely for very bad closings to repeat over and over again.Currently, DJIA is supported on a minor trendline but last friday's candlestick was done with heavy volume so the move downwards should be relatively huge if it happens.Dow Jones Industrial Average:Currently, the Straits Times Index is forming a ascending triangle formation after rebounded off the resistive trendline. There is a slight MACD histogram bearish divergence. Similarly to the DJIA, there was a huge volume for l Read more:Weekend
, review
DJIA at pivotal point 2008-02-28 10:29:00 Dow Jones seems to be at a pivotal point
now. Prior support level has turned resistance level for now. Furthermore, DJIA seems to be resisted by a trendline and this is further confirmed by the doji formed yesterday. Let's see how it goes tonight.Dow Jones Industrial Average:
Breakout from upside 2008-02-26 21:05:00 Well, as the title of my post said, the bulls have won currently and this is seen in the breakout from the upside
of the triangle formation which was formed over the past few sessions. This can be seen from the chart belowDow Jones Industrial Average: Read more:Breakout
Weekend review of DJIA and STI 2008-02-24 11:27:00 Actually there isn't much of a review
to do for this week cos next week is the decisive week for the next subsequent trend. The earning report season which accounted for the rally last week is almost over. There will be subsequent US economic data being released along with the Fed meeting and that will be the deciding factor.Well as a lot of technicians like to say, all news will be reflected in the chart. For the chart of the Dow Jones, it closed just below the resistive trendline last friday. There isn't much valuable information for me to gleam from the chart. Current trend is the market is showing indecisiveness since it has formed higher lows and a lower highs and that coincide with the news that the market should be waiting for next week before deciding on the trend.Dow Jones Industr Read more:Weekend
Ominous candlestick for DJIA 2008-02-20 09:49:00 I spotted a ugly looking inverted hammer on the chart of the Dow Jones. Notice that the wick of the candlestick is very long and this adds to the potency of the candlestick. Basically, the inverted hammer tested the resistive trendline successfully. I am inclined towards a break of the downside of the triangle formation as mentioned in my last post.Dow Jones Industrial Average:
Weekend review of DJIA and STI 2008-02-17 11:06:00 Since my last post, there has been a short term rebound as mentioned in my last post from the point of technical analysis and there has been new development. What can we expect from the chart at this point of time ?For the Dow Jones, it is now forming a triangle formation and this shows even strength between the bulls and the bears since the DJIA has been forming a lower high and a higher low. It will be prudent to see which side of the triangle it breaks out from. If it breaks from the downside, a new downtrend will begin and vice versa. The next support level will be around 11620.Dow Jones Industrial Average:Onto the Straits Times Index, the previous gaps down has been negated or covered back in the last few days. This is due to the bullish sentiment for the budget day thus for that few Read more:Weekend
, review
Poising for a technical rebound 2008-02-12 12:02:00 From the looks for the Dow Jones chart, it seems that DJIA is poised for a rebound soon. Currently, it is residing on the fibbonacci 23.6% support level. The last 3 candlesticks had a long tails which resemble tweezers bottoms so in my opinion, these factors suggest a rebound should be near soon. The next resistance level will be around 12750.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the chart of the Straits Times Index, it formed a island reversal formation and that signifies a downtrend. Following this, there was a huge gap down and this gap will be acting as a resistance level. Since i expect the DJIA to be rebounding soon, i believe STI will be following suit.Straits Times Index:However, both of the intermediate trends for both STI and DJIA are still down. Remember that the subprime issue is no
Chart with regularity 2008-02-10 08:23:00 I spotted NOL forming a nice channel. Currently it's very near the channel resistance and this is a good opportunity to go short. Furthermore, the intermediate trend is down since it has been forming a lower high and a lower low. This chart is very similar to the chart of Cosco Corp too.NOL: Read more:Chart
Chinese New Year gloom 2008-02-06 10:51:00 First of all, a very happy chinese new year to all of you :) But i guess the festive spirit somehow did not spread to the markets.For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it broke out of it's rising bearish wedge formation and it closed with a shaven black candlestick with heavy volume. It is expected as it failed to broke through the resistance level that was highlighted in my previous posts. The next support level is likely to be at around 11620. This also register as another time where the Dow Jones failed to make a higher high.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the Straits Times Index, it opened with a huge gap downwards below the psychological support level of 3000 easily despite STI opening only for half a day today. Next likely area of support is 2744.Straits Times Index:Cosco Corp seems Read more:Chinese
, Chinese New Year
A week of whipsaws 2008-02-03 08:13:00 This week has been a week full of whipsaws. Whipsaws in technical analysis, in my own layman term is that price action seems to break through a crucial level but it only broke through slightly thus giving the impression that it has broken through it, only to discover in subsequent closings that it din go in the forecasted direction.This can be seen in the Straits Times Index. There was a gap up previously and this act as a resistance. Subsequently there was a closing above the gap and it seems that this resistance has been broken but it headed south again. Now there was a gap down too previously and this acted as a support. The closing on thursday seems to suggest that this support has been breached but on friday, it managed to climb back to land on the gap down.Straits Times Index:For the
Middle of nowhere 2008-01-29 09:39:00 Straits Times Index did not rally back to the resistive trendline that connected the previous 3 peaks or rather, it has not return back to test the resistive trendline yet. Gaps can act as technical levels of support and resistance. For the STI, it can be seen from the chart that the gap up is acting as a resistance and the gap down is acting as a support level and STI seems to be sandwiched between both gaps. Furthermore, the gap down is at the psychological level of 3000 points where a lot of speculators are sentimental towards this level. The trend can only be judged depending on whether STI breaks it's support or resistance level. However, i am still bearish since the rally a few days ago was a false one since it was done with declining volume.Straits Times Index:
Weekend review of STI and DJIA 2008-01-27 09:57:00 This time i am using the weekly chart for the Dow Jones. This is because the minor trend is too volatile and it's hard to gauge the trend of the market. A weekly chart will give more confirmation on the major trend.On the weekly chart, we can see that there is a well-tested trendline which has been acting as a resistance for 2 peaks and 1 time as a support level. It broke this trendline recently and there is a fair chance that it will go back to test this trendline as a resistance by showing a long wick on the candlestick before plunging again.Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly:For the minor trend of the Straits Times Index, it seems to be bullish since it covered back the gap down as seen on the chart. Currently it is heading north on a very steep channel support line and i am expecting Read more:Weekend
, review
Market reversal 2008-01-23 10:14:00 Today, a lot of technical factors suggest that a market reversal has taken place. For the Dow Jones, it appears to pierce the February support level but it formed a hammer candlestick with a very long tail. This hammer was formed with very heavy volume and this increases the probability of it being a technical indicator showing a market reversal.Dow Jones Industrial Average:The Straits Times Index gap down on 2 closings ago and it opened with a gap up today. The gap down acted as a resistance technically and today's closing covered back this gap down and this is bullish. Furthermore, by candlestick theory, an morning star formation has been formed with heavy volume and this is bullish too. For the technical indicators that i have chosen, both the RSI and the A/D line are showing bullish di Read more:Market
Weekend review of DJIA, STI and HSI 2008-01-19 00:06:00 Volume is an essential tool in technical analysis since in technical analysis, volume confirms price action and this was important tool for market action for the past week.For the Dow Jones, it broke the August closing support level and is now heading towards the February support level. The striking thing about the chart is that as the index action plunges down all the way, the volume increases with this action and that is confirmation of a very bearish trend.Dow Jones Industrial Average:I took a look at the weekly chart and the chart reveals quite a number of things. A trendline was drawn connecting the peaks in 2006 and this trendline was a resistive trendline which turned into a supportive trendline for 2007. This trendline support was broken this week with very heavy volume and current Read more:Weekend
, review
Downtrend in process 2008-01-15 08:57:00 Today was another red day for the STI. Most counters were not spared and plunged heavily. However, there is always hope in this plunge as a lot of counters which are overvalued are starting to look cheaper and it's a great time to pick up counters. There is nothing technical about this. Times of crisis are always a good time to pick up fundamentally strong counters and even if one knows nuts about fundamental or technical analysis, there are still profits to be made.Well, this blog is about technical analysis so i gonna give some my analysis on the current situation technically.1. Today's volume is still very heavy for the counters in my watchlist. This shows that the selling momentum has not ceased yet thus this downtrend is far from over.2. There were 3 days of intensive selling so i bel
Weekend review of STI and DJIA 2008-01-13 10:53:00 For the Dow Jones, the current channel resistance seems to be broken. However, the volume still remains to be very heavy so one should be prudent. DJIA seems to be building a base as we notice that the low of friday was higher den the low of on wednesday. As of now, it is better to wait for subsequent closings before deciding whether the bottom has been reached technically.Dow Jones Industrial Average:As for the Straits Times Index, chartnexus is not uploading the latest data anymore until further notice due to a revamp in the components of the STI. I'm not sure how long this will take though i am expecting the uploading of the data to be resumed in a few weeks time. Meanwhile, i am trying hard to find online charts of the new STI so if there is any websites showing the STI chart, do tell Read more:Weekend
, review
November support breached for DJIA 2008-01-08 21:42:00 Dow Jones breached it's November
support level on the latest closing with heavy volume and that is very bearish. We gotta wait and see whether it will hold the lows of August. But notice that if we consider the close only, it has already breached both the closings of August and November.Dow Jones Industrial Average:
Weekend review of STI and DJIA 2008-01-06 09:31:00 Dow Jones did not hold the trendline dat i posted for my last post. It broke the trendline convincingly and now we are looking at at the Aug and Nov correction support levels again.The level of around 12710 is the level for the prior corrections as seen on the chart and we shall see how DJIA approach this level. This level is a very significant level so there is some chance that it will bounce off this level by showing a hammer candlestick perhaps. If it breaks this level, it will be very bearish since this will result in a lower low according by Dow theory.Notice that the trendline for the A/D has been breached and there is also a MACD crossover.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the Straits Times Index, it rebounded off the resistive trendline. Similar to the DJIA,the level of around 3300 Read more:Weekend
, review
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