Owner: Technical analysis of stocks in SG URL:http://traderstudent.blogspot.com Join Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2007 21:06:38 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: Application and analysis using technical analysis of stocks in SG with charts frequently added and updated. Site statistics:Click here
Unclear direction for STI 2007-10-08 11:09:00 Can't really say with conviction where Straits Times Index will head next. It formed a bearish counterattack candlestick with high volume and got resisted at 23.6% fibbonacci retracement. Moreover, resistance for RSI still not broken. On the other hand, STI seems to be supported back on the resistive trendline. Gotta see how Dow closes later.Straits Times Index Chart:
Roller-coaster week 2007-10-06 11:44:00 It's been a roller-coaster week. From the short-lived china stocks rally to a sudden fall in the index. Den i saw the Straits Times Index affected by the Hang Seng Index and the next day, STI seems to be unaffected by HSI again.Dow Jones has tested near the level of 14118 thrice already and a close above this level with high volume will be very significant.Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart:I added in the Hang Seng index cos it seems that the movement of it will affect the movement of STI too. Currently it seems to be supported on the previous upside gap.Hang Seng Index Chart:The Straits Times Index seems to be resisted by a resistive trendline that was drawn dating back to June this year. Currently, as what i mentioned in the previous post, the tweezer bottoms combined with the upside gap is proving to be a strong level of support. We can observed that the RSI seems to be resisted by a horizontal line that i drawn for many times already. The main things to watch out for is a close ab Read more:Roller
Huge drop in Dow Jones 2007-10-20 12:17:00 As my heading says it, the Dow Jones
showed a huge drop on it's chart with a long black shaven candlestick. A drop of 2%+ for the latest closing is bearish since drops of 1% is common in the volatile markets recently. The drop was accompanied by very heavy volume for the past few closings and this is very bearish too.So what can happen on monday ? Given that the drop for the DJIA occured on friday and we had a break of 2 days over this period, we will know it 1st hand whether the market sentiment has change by seeing whether the Straits Times Index will open with a gap down. But things are complicated since in recent weeks, STI dun seem to be following the movement of the DJIA. But i do tink that STI will tank on the opening on monday. Well i can be wrong too.On a personal note, i been looking to this correction. I have been sitting on the sidelines for quite some time already ever since the market turn volatile and bearish divergences was spotted. Only when a correction happens, den
Calm correction of STI 2007-10-19 11:33:00 Straits Times Index seems to be supported on the previous gap near the level of 3725. But the sentiment of the market seems to be calm. Or at least that's how i felt. The volume for the drop today was not that significantly heavy. Furthermore, the bullish divergence in the A/D line seems to suggest there is some buying into weakness. So overall, there seem to be no panic as of now or perhaps in other words, this seems like a healthy correction
I am now looking to see when this correction will end. So currently, i am looking at the support lines to see where the STI's fall will be cushioned. Currently, the next strong support is the prior resistance level on the 16th of july at around 3625. The fibbonacci retracement of 23.6% also occur at this level thus due to this 2 factors, i do believe this will be an area of strong support in my opinion.Anyway, this is the 2nd time in my blog i am charting a correction. I took a look at the previous corrections and observed that having the RSI in
Sector indices giving clues 2007-10-17 10:21:00 I did a check on the sector indices on the day when the Straits Times Index drop by a huge amount which was 2 days ago. Every sector indices was down except the TSC sector which rebounded off the trendline. Now that gives us a strong clue on what counters in which sector is resillent to STI's drop in the short-term and perhaps the sector that is in play now.TSC sector: Read more:clues
Support found for STI 2007-10-25 11:08:00 The Straits Times Index seems to have found support on the 50d EMA. Currently it has test the 50d EMA for the past 4 closings and it's able to close above it and that is bullish. I am very inclined to tink that this correction is over.Straits Times Index:I was looking at Pan Hong today. It has been a low volume counter until the last week where volume starts to pick up. I charted it since it appeared on the top volume list 2 days ago and i tot it was fishy. Pan Hong broke it's historical high with exceptionally high volume today. It is quite near the resistance turned support trendline so Pan Hong may perhaps be supported by this trendline. This may present a good opportunity to get in.Pan Hong: Read more:Support
STI correction may be over perhaps 2007-10-23 10:56:00 Ever since the Dow Jones fell a few closings ago, it seems to me that the STI is now following the Dow Jones closely. This will be good as there will less guessing done on how STI will open the next closing since Dow Jones is now leading it.For the Dow Jones, i do have some reasons to believe that the correction
for now is at least over. It formed a hammer candlestick on the 100d EMA. The hammer candlestick is a bullish reversal candlestick and being able to test and close above the 100d EMA is good indeed. I did a quick check on the previous corrections for the Dow Jones and came up with the level that the RSI should fall to before it resumes it's uptrend. Currently, the RSI has rebounded off this level. All these technical indicators suggest that the correction should be over at least for now in my opinion. As for the strength of this rebound, i still can't tell as there are not enough technical signs to show so gotta wait for subsequent closings.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For th Read more:perhaps
Straits Times Index free falling 2007-10-22 10:49:00 STI really opened with a gap down today indeed. The support of around 3685 which was the prior resistance and the fibbonacci retracement of 23.6% din hold as support. Currently, it is residing on the 50d EMA. Can't really tell where it will fall to. A lot will depend on the Dow Jones later. If the 50d EMA fails to hold as well, the next support will be the level where there is a confluence of the 38.2% fibbonacci retracement and the 100d EMA.StraitsTimesIndex
: Read more:falling
Great start of the week 2007-10-29 10:21:00 Today the news reported quite a lot of stocks broke their historical high. It seems that the sentiment of the market is very bullish. I'm expecting to see a flat market soon prior to the outcome of whether the Fed will be cutting rate. Otherwise it seems that the market is confident that Fed will cut the rate so that's why it is so bullish now.China Hong is getting less bullish since the increase in price action is not confirmed with increasing volume. But overall, the uptrend is still intact. Any drop in China Hong will see it get supported on the resistance turned support trendline.China Hong:Pan Hong has not been appearing in the top volume list for the past 2 closings. Today, it broke the trendline which was supporting it. There may be some chance that it is forming a bull flag but i dun have much experience with flags pattern. Need to observe more for this chart.Pan Hong:I got vested in IndoAgri at 1.61 this morning. It really surprise me by closing at 1.81 with extremely heavy Read more:Great
Market weekend review + stock picks 2007-10-27 11:06:00 For the last closing, the Dow Jones rally up quite a significant amount. This would imply that on Monday, the STI is likely to do well too. Nothing much on the DJIA chart and this is good. Fundamentally wise, there will be a outcome for the interest rate for the Fed meeting so it may affect the market slightly. I posted the DJIA chart for reference.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the closing on this friday, the Straits Times Index managed to gap up and close the downside gap formed on the 22nd of this month. From technical analysis point of view, the closing of this downside gap is bullish. So we can see more signs from the chart that this correction is over.Straits Times Index:Last friday was a good time to pick up counters. I have been monitoring some counters which i think that they have some potential for profits and have put up their charts for reference.China Hong broke it's historical high last friday. In my opinion, counters which have broke their historical high are likely t Read more:Market
, review
, stock picks
Weekend review of stock market 2007-11-03 04:50:00 For the latest closing, we see the Dow Jones forming a huge black candlestick with heavy volume and that is bearish. To be honest, from the technical analysis point of view, it seems to me that there was no technical signs that the Dow Jones is going to suffer such a huge drop. There was no bearish divergence or any breaks in trendline. The only consolation was that since the Straits Times Index takes it's sentiment for the opening from the Dow Jones, we can always use the performance of the Dow Jones to roughly gauge the performance of the STI.Dow Jones was supported by the 100d EMA on the previous dip. This time round, it has closed slightly above the 100d EMA while testing it. There is a chance that it will be supported on the 100d EMA this time round.Dow Jones Industrial Average:Straits Times Index suffered a drop and open on a gap down due to the poor closing of the Dow Jones. This is a sign that the sentiment of the STI is still quite linked to the Dow Jones. STI was supported o Read more:Weekend
, review
Uptrend continues 2007-11-01 09:31:00 The outcome of the Fed meeting was that the interest rate was cut. This resulted in the Dow Jones heading north by quite a significant amount. But to my surprise, STI did not gap up and closed with a black candlestick. Perhaps, the market had factored in the cut already so it did not went up strongly.Some charts and their price action caught my attention today. Lian Beng was in the top volume list throughout and it broke a trendline with significant volume. Furthermore, there was another bullish technical signal and that appeared in the form of the MACD lines having a crossover. The chart reminds me of China Hong though since both charts are very similar.Lian Beng:CH offshore tested the $1.01 resistance today and failed to close above it. The $1.01 is a strong resistance line which has been tested a lot of times but it failed to close above this. Going by the short-term channel, it broke above the channel with very high volume and that is bullish. Furthermore, there is a MACD line cros
A bet on the market 2007-10-31 08:46:00 Seems to me the people in the market are either staying out now or are betting on the outcome of the Fed meeting from the posts made in the channelnewsasia forum. It just occur to me that forum is a good place to gauge the general sentiment of the market beside looking at the charts.The Straits Times Index seems to be supported on the previous downside gap now. Volume is picking up as the index moves higher and that is a healthy sign.Straits Times Index:In my opinion, the outcome of the Fed meeting does not matter. If the outcome turns out to be bad, the market is likely to gap down and it will be a good chance to buy counters cheaply. If the outcome turns out to be good, the market will gap up and i can ride on the momentum.On a personal note, i sold off my indoagri today. I decide to lock my profits in instead of leaving it to the outcome of the Fed meeting. But i sold at near the low of the day and that was a lousy move. I think i need to have a exit plan cos i been thinking too muc
OSIM creeping up slowly 2007-11-05 10:47:00 I spotted this counter in my watchlist. It has been closing at it's high for the past 2 days with volume picking up. And furthermore, it has been able to close strongly despite the drop in STI today.Osim:
Volume not confirming STI's drop 2007-11-05 10:05:00 A basic tenet of technical analysis is that volume must confirm price action. If the price goes up, the volume must increase otherwise, chances are that this increase in price is likely to be short-lived and vice versa. The drop in the Straits Times Index was not accompanied by heavy volume. If it was accompanied by heavy volume, it is likely to be panic selling.We can see that STI has landed at the level of around 3630 and that was the level of the previous drop. Thus this drop is now currently acting as a support for STI. Furthermore, the close of STI is at the 50d EMA so technically speaking, i believe STI will not drop further. The closing of the Dow Jones later must also be taken in consideration since STI is following the Dow Jones closely. In my previous post, i believe Dow Jones will not drop further as it is now supported on the 100d EMA. Thus my outlook for the market is neutral now.For the counters, i noticed there were a lot of black candlesticks formed but their volume was Read more:Volume
Uncle Dow is falling down 2007-11-11 09:24:00 The last friday closing for the Dow Jones took me by surprise. Before that, there was a hammer candlestick formed on the trendline and the 200d MA. The hammer tested both of these and it managed to close above it so technically speaking, i believe that was the bottom of the correction. However, the Dow Jones closed with a huge black candlestick and it closed below the 200d MA. The 200d MA, as i said in my previous post is an very important moving average line as it determines whether the major trend of the market is up or down. The last time, it dip below the 200d MA was in Nov 2005 and that was like 2 years ago.The next support level for the Dow Jones should be around 13800 and that was the level which the previous correction at around 22nd of Oct had fallen to. Short-term wise, we should see a technical rebound in the next few days but bear in mind, that the market is still downtrending. It can be seen from the blue line that the Dow Jones is now forming a downtrending channel and it Read more:Uncle
, falling
STI saved by a holiday ? 2007-11-08 13:42:00 The Straits Times Index was indeed saved
by the Deepavali holiday. Dow Jones closed with a huge black candlestick. Given the volatility and the sentiment of the local market now, STI would not be spared from a drop if it had open on holiday.Looking at the Dow Jones, the long black candlestick seems to be supported on a trendline which was drawn from around one year plus ago and one which has been tested thrice so far. Close to the trendline, there is a red line beneath it which is the 200d MA. The 200d MA which acts as a strong support or resistance, is a gauge on whether the market is a major bear market or a bull market. Any close beneath it will signify that the market is in a major or at least a intermediate bear sentiment. Furthemore, we can see that a higher high and a higher low has been formed and this means that currently, Dow Jones is in a short-term bear market.In my opinion, due to the confluence of these technical factors, i.e the support of the trendline and the 200d MA w
End of technical rebound 2007-11-15 22:49:00 Dow Jones bounced off it's channel resistance yesterday night. This means that the rebound is only a technical rebound and not the start of a bull run. Next possible action is that the Dow will head back towards the channel support. Since Dow closed badly, i believe STI should also rebound off it's channel resistance today.It feel almost eerie that the simple concept of trendlines work so well at times. I drew the blue line connecting the previous 2 tops of this current downtrend. It's such a strange thing that the Dow Jone rebounded off this line after it touches it as if that Uncle Dow knows that it must rebound off this line dat i have drawn :pDow Jones Industrial Average:
Technical rebound has arrived 2007-11-13 19:54:00 I wanted to post yesterday night but i had problems putting up the charts with Blogger yet again so i din post. But i guess it was good in some ways as i can blog about the technical rebound for the latest closing of the Dow Jones.The Dow Jones rallied strongly last time with by rebounding off it's channel support with a long white shaven candlestick with heavy volume. The technical rebound which i have been expecting has arrived finally. The technical indicators have already suggested that a rebound will take place soon since the MACD histograms and lines have touched the prior levels and the RSI seems to be showing bullish divergence as it has been trending sideways while the index suffered a huge drop.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the Straits Times Index, it should be supported at it's current level due to the confluence of the 200d MA and the fibbonacci retracement level of 50%. These are some of the strongest supports that are used in technical analysis. Furthermore, the MACD Read more:Technical
Downtrend of the market continues 2007-11-21 12:07:00 It is noted that there were 5 attempts for the Dow Jones to break the current downtrend channel resistance but all attempts were futile. The downtrend is still continuing. DJIA is going to reach a pivotal point soon where it will test it's previous support level on 16th Aug. Den we shall see whether DJIA will rebound off this level.I think i kind of given up hope on technical indicators. Or rather, maybe they dun work well for this situation. There were positive divergences signs on the technical indicators i used. A/D line is showing bullish divergence in the long term and RSI refuse to head south despite the drop in index action. But i have been seeing this for quite some time already but the index still refuse to head north. Now we have the MACD lines piercing the previous support level and this implies selling momentum is still going on.Dow Jones Industrial Average:The chart of the Straits Times Index mirrors the DJIA. If DJIA fails to break it's channel resistance, u can see STI
Oscillating like a wave 2007-11-18 08:31:00 Dow Jones rebounded off it's channel resistance for the latest closing. The weak rally on friday failed to breach the channel resistance line. Furthermore, it tested the 200d MA but failed to close above it. Now i guess Dow Jones will rebound off it's channel support line in a few days time but as of now, it is still quite far away from the channel support so Dow should decline further in the next few days.Dow Jones Industrial Average:As what i mentioned in my last few posts, the chart of the Straits Times Index look almost like the Dow Jones, except that it seems to be lagging a bit. So if Dow Jones rebounded off it's channel resistance, chances are that STI will decline in the next few days until it touches the channel support. As of now, we can see from the chart that the STI has rebounded off it's channel resistance.Straits Times Index:It's a good time to be go short indeed. I notice most of the china stocks have breach their support and are falling like there is no tomorrow.
Another formation failure 2007-11-27 08:57:00 Bio-treat formed a confirmed double tops and it should be going down south. But today it rallied up and broke it's previous support line. Another stark reminder of formations do fail and one should have a cut loss principle in place. There is much more to technical analysis den just formations.Bio Treat: Read more:failure
STI forming a channel resistance breakout 2007-11-26 10:39:00 Actually the above title is not surprising. Like what i mentioned in my previous posts, if Dow Jones fails to break it's channel resistance, there is no way STI will break theirs. So DJIA has broke out of it's channel resistance so thus, it is only natural for STI to broke out of their channel resistance.Today's closing was quite good. Opening was by the retailers since STI increase quite significantly at the opening and only increase slightly towards the end of the day. Volume done was quite significant though not that heavy. Whether this will translate to the next bull run, i am not sure though the breakout of the channel resistance is quite a piece of good news. Next technical signal for uptrend of the index will be to look out for a higher high and a higher low to be formed before i will go long.My opinion is that since all bad news have been released and has been discounted in the charts, this shld be the end of the correction unless more new bad news is being released. However
Additional opinion on the Dow Jones 2007-11-25 09:50:00 I took another look at the weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average today again. The weekly chart is more important den the daily chart technically. It seems to me that there is a chance that this correction may be over.Dow Jones seems to be supported on the previous resistance now. On the latest closing, it tested this previous resistance turn support level with a hammer like candlestick so i am slightly more bullish now. Let's see whether this support will hold.Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly: Read more:opinion
Another likely technical rebound for STI 2007-11-24 11:59:00 The closing on Friday for the Dow Jones was interesting to some extent. There were 2 important technical factors that can be gleamed from the chart. The first would be that DJIA form a breakout of the channel resistance. DJIA has been trending in this downward channel for the past month and a breakout of the channel resistance seems to be a piece of bullish news.However, if one takes another look at the volume, u can see that the volume was extremely light. For this closing alone, volume does not confirms index action thus the rally was not a 'true' rally.If we looked at the previous drop in Aug, we can see that there was a hammer formed with an extremely long tail. I browsed through the CNA forum and some of them shared that on that day itself, there was panic selling so the index dip til a very low level. The funds took advantage of this and decides to load in at a cheap price and that explains the very long tail and the heavy volume. So right now, i guess this is not happening. I Read more:likely
Recovery of the STI 2007-12-02 07:33:00 As an overview, the market have seem to recover from this current correction. Both the Dow Jones and the STI showed signs of recovery as they tested their support levels.DJIA tested the 200d MA on the last closing and managed to close above it and dat is a good sign. Although the candlestick dat is formed is a hanging man which is bearish going by candlestick charting, i think overall it is bullish because DJIA broke the 200d MA on thursday and the latest closing confirms that the DJIA is able to stay above the 200d MA. Furthemore, there is a MACD crossover and that is bullish.Dow Jones Industrial Average:STI showed bullishness as it gapped up for it's previous 2 openings. The volume for the last closing was very heavy and that is a good sign. Furthermore, there is a MACD crossover which was similar to the DJIA. Next resistance for the STI will be the region around the 50d and 100d EMA which happens to coincide with the 38.2% fibbonacci retracement.Straits Times Index:Overall, i belie Read more:Recovery
Moving nowhere for a while 2007-11-28 08:54:00 The market seems to have establish some kind of support level as of now. For the Dow Jones, basically it tested the level of around 12740 twice and this level will act as the support for now. It closed with a rally on the latest closing with significant volume and that is good.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the Straits Times Index, there was a upside gap 3 closings ago and this gap was tested sucessfully in the sense that it did not close below the gap and dat is bullish. One thing that puzzle me was that though DJIA rallied up on the latest closing, STI failed to close up higher. But as of now, STI has established a support level with the tested upside gap.Straits Times Index:In my humble opinion, i reckon selling pressure or the momentum have eased off already. STI fails to move up cos there is no buying pressure as the sentiment is still mixed. So what can change the sentiment of the market and that is, to convince people to be buyers again ? That will depend on the outcome of the Read more:Moving
Players watching by the sidelines 2007-12-10 10:59:00 Today's volume was very light. I woke up just before noon and saw that in the top volume list, majority of the counters did not even hit 10k in their trading volume. I guess that a lot of people are sidelining the market.Quite a lot of counters dip today and the dip was quite significant. What was strange was that the dip was on very low volume and that showed that there were very few buyers to push back the price. It was only during the end which some of the counters recovered back some ground. I'm not that worried about the dip cos it was on low volume. The market's sentiment now hinges on the outcome of the Fed meeting so it's quite pointless to discuss anyting until the outcome is revealed. One may take a bet now and place a position in the market or just sideline and watch the show :)For the Straits Times Index, it formed a hanging man candlestick today which is bearish by nature but overall, it is still supported on the 100d MA. Read more:Players
, sidelines
STI and DJIA weekend review 2007-12-09 00:55:00 Dow Jones tested the 61.8% fibbonacci retracement and failed to close above it. A break above this retracement level will mean that the DJIA will probably go all the way north to it's October's peak. Furthermore, it has broken the trendline that i drawn which connects the previous 2 peaks and that is a good sign. Overall, things are still going well on the charts.If the DJIA should retrace, it is likely to land at the area of yellow region highlighted in my chart and that is due to the 100d MA and the current channel support in the yellow region.Dow Jones Industrial Average:For the Straits Times Index, it found support on the 100d MA. It is still some distance away from the trendline that i drawn connecting the previous peaks. Given the DJIA has broke that trendline, i think STI should break this trendline soon.Straits Times Index:Overall, i feel that the markets is definitely not as volatile as the previous 1 to 2 months ago. Things are starting to look much more predictable and bor Read more:review
Yangzijiang's progress 2007-12-07 10:41:00 Yangzijiang is looking good for it's uptrend. It tested the prior gap up made 3 closings ago with light volume sucessfully today. Furthermore, the gap up coincide with the 100d MA and these 2 factors suggest that the gap acts as a strong level of support. The next resistance will be at $2.29 and that will be the target price. We should see this being reached by the next Fed meeting if rates are being cut. With some luck, it may even breakout from the $2.29 level :)Yangzijiang: Read more:progress
Recommend Site To A Friend
