Owner: South OC Real Estate Tracker URL:http://www.southoctracker.com/ Join Date: Sat, 22 Sep 2007 12:04:12 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: A blog dedicated to following trends and discussing the latest South Orange County, California news. Site statistics:Click here
This builder is really reaching 2007-10-20 12:42:00 Here is an ad from today's new house section in the OC Register. If it appears too small on your screen, click the image for the full version.File this one under insulting. The approach taken by this ad is so obvious, it's virtually transparent. They're not going after anyone who's really informed about the housing market, because they would laugh this off based on a mountain of concrete facts. Anyone who sees this ad and says "the pictures of signs in the newspaper told me to buy a house now, so I listened" should have their head examined.This ad is instead targeting a sidelines buyer, perhaps one who really, really wants to get into the market for a variety of emotional reasons including peer and/or cultural pressures, but is holding back until they see some magic light that tells them it's finally time to jump in.In reality, there doesn't have to be anything like a "magic light" - just an ongoing analysis of the numbers to determine when buying makes financial sense based on s
We're still not being "mislead" 2007-10-27 12:48:00 We were hoping this heinous ad we found in a recent newspaper, which tried to persuade readers not to be "mislead (still can't believe I missed this typo) by all the information out there on the housing market" was just some awful, one-time anomaly. Nope. Look what we received in the mail the other day...This ad got me thinking...What would I say to counteract this type of deceptive behavior aimed at exposing potential buyers' emotionality, naivety and ignorance? Here's the same ad, but with a few tweaks to make it better reflect what's really going on. Enjoy.
Disaster week continues 2007-10-26 02:00:00 This property is perhaps in even worse financial shape than the past two we profiled. Take a look...26246 Via Canon, Dana Point, CA 92624 Asking price: $727,500 Asking price/ sq ft: $364Income requirement: $181,875Purchase price: $1,100,000Purchase date: 3/29/2006Size: 3 beds, 2.75 baths, 2,000 sq ft (built in 1963) MLS: S509959 (5 days on Redfin) 2006 property tax: $8,336Type: Single Family Residence Stories: Three or More LevelsLot size: 5,560 sq ftFrom listing: Capistrano Beach, unique 4 level home with 4 private decks and plenty of room for entertaining. Legal use us SFR but home was previously as 3 units; studio on main, 1/1 on next floor and studio with loft on top floor. Great oppertunity, motivated seller.Being highway close can be considered a positive in some instances, but this is excessive. The road you are seeing is PCH, near where it meets up with the 5 freeway. If the "legal use us" a SFR, would we then describe the previous se Read more:Disaster
UPDATE: Something went terribly, terribly wrong 2007-10-25 12:49:00 UPDATE (on an update): brokerted informed us that this property did not in fact sell, and is headed to foreclosure. Thanks!Remember the Laguna Niguel house that had a listing description that reeked of desperation?"NEED AN OFFER NOW PLEASE! DROPPED $376,000 for QUICK SELL! MUST SALE THIS WEEK PLEASE BRING IN AN OFFER. Most LUXURIOUS section of SJH gated community. Over $250, 000.00 in UPGRADES. LESS THAN 2 YEAR YOUNG! Larger Backyard & Front Courtyard, Gourmet Kitchen. Custom Cabinet & paint, Crown Molding, Custom Wood Flooring and Much More! VERY MOTIVATED SELLER!"At the time, we calculated the potential loss as being $186,940, assuming the owners got their full asking price, which was then $1,250,000.Well, guess what: It looked like the plan worked, and the house sold (though I would argue it could easily be the price that made the difference, while nothing else mattered).Redfin is showing a sale of Oct. 9, with a price of $1,172,484. If we factor in the usual 6% for selling
Happy Halloween 2007-10-31 12:51:00 Today we survey three properties around Southern California that are scary for one reason or another....Chilling on the outside and inside (what's with the black blur in the bottom right of the inside photos?)...621 South Dickel Street, Anaheim, 92805Asking price: $424,900Purchase price: $465,000Description: A spanish style one story in the historic mother colony area. Qualifies for the mills act and special financing through city. Call xxx-xxxx for details. Excellent 'fixer upper opportunity'.Foreboding on the outside with some dead plants...13118 Beaty Ave.,Whittier, 90605Asking price: $417,000Purchase price: $530,000Description: PRE-FORCLOSURE! SHORT-SALE. 3BEDROOM/1 BATHROOM, EXTRA UNIT IN THE BACK WITH BATHROOM(WITHOUT PERMIT). GREAT FOR INVESTORS/FIRST TIME BUYERS. PRICED BELOW MARKET VALUE.Frightening amount of money that could be lost...810 South Birch Street, Santa Ana, 92701Asking price: $469,000Purchase price: $645,000Possible loss incl. 6% sales costs: $204,140Descripti Read more:Happy
, Halloween
, Happy Halloween
32% off the peak in Mission Viejo 2007-10-30 02:28:00 Hat tip to MJA for pointing out this Mission
Viejo property that's undergone a severe discount, but still can't seem to find any takers. There are no photos despite the fact that the listing is showing up as 286 days old in Redfin. A search of the address did yield an online listing and picture, that is above. Here are the basic details:26861 Goya Circle, Mission Viejo, 92691 Asking price: $749,900Asking price/sq ft: $229Purchase price: $938,212Purchase date: 11/20/2006Other sales history: 1/3/2005: $1,100,000 6/11/2003: $718,0009/15/1999: $380,0006/23/1997: $285,000Listing description: BEAUTIFUL POOL HOME WITH SPA & WATERFALL ON A LARGE LOT ON A SINGLE LOADED STREET IN A CUL-DE-SAC. FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM. THREE BEDROOMS DOWN. STONE COUNTERTOPS, HIGH CEILING PROPERTY SOLD IN ITS PRESENT 'AS IS' CONDITION. BUYER AND AGENT TO VERIFY ALL INFO. ALL OFFERS W/ PRE-APPROVAL LETTER The bare-bones description and use of the terms "as is" and "all offers w/ pre-approval letter" would
Mission Viejo luxury price-slasher 2007-10-29 23:35:00 These sellers are going for what I would call the "cut-and-run" play. That is, cut the price
a ton right from the beginning, (hopefully) attract a buyer and then get the heck out.It's almost like raising a white flag to signal they understand this "investment" was a total bomb, but I don't see any dishonor in this approach. This owner bought at the peak of the market and now needs to sell - whether it be because of unforeseen circumstances or a bad mortgage. They're now hoping to quickly cut their losses and move on. Unfortunate but respectable.23331 Cobblefield, Mission
Viejo, 92692Asking price: $950,000 Asking price/ sq ft: $238Income requirement: $237,500Purchase price: $1,250,000Purchase date: 3/16/2006Size: 4 beds, 3.5 baths, 4,000 sq ft (built in 1999) MLS: P603176 (25 days on Redfin) 2006 property tax: $7,923HOA dues: $169Type: Single Family Residence Stories: Single Family ResidenceFrom listing: Spectacular D. R. Horton Floor Plan In Prestigious Guard Gated. 3rd Story Att
All's not well in South County 2007-11-05 12:08:00 Interesting post over at Jon Lansner's OC Register real estate blog today that outlines which county areas have the highest rate of "distressed" properties for sale - meaning foreclosures and short sales listed as up for sale. For the complete list, follow this link.The top two - Santa Ana and Anaheim - are not surprising at all. These are lower-income areas where subprime lending ran especially rampant. Considering how far prices detatched from income fundamentals, it's not surprising how property values have fallen. But I was surprised at how many of the other areas near the top of the list are in SouthCounty
.Here is how South County areas rank (out of 40 communities in OC), and their percentage of distressed inventory:3rd - RSM (31.8% of inventory is distressed)4th - Lake Forest (29.8%)5th - Laguna Hills (25.4%)6th - Foothill Ranch (23.2%)8th - Aliso Viejo (22.6%)9th - San Juan Cap. (21.7%)11th - Mission Viejo (19.4%)12th - Ladera Ranch (19.2%)13th - Talega (18.3%)16th - Laguna N
Easy money 2007-11-04 11:54:00 Since it's the weekend, we're going to go out of town for a day and feature a property in Los Angeles County. There's no photo available of the property, so instead I'm using a generic picture of the city of Norwalk from the 1950s, right after this house was built.The basic details:11912 Cresson Street, Norwalk, 90650Asking price: $459,000Purchase price: $400,000Purchase date: 6/27/2005Size: 2 beds, 1 bath, 749 sq ft (built in 1949)MLS: P604142 (26 days on Redfin)Description: Charming home in quiet neighborhood walking distance to Park and Elementary school. The garage has been converted to an extra large bedroom, you get 3 bedrooms for the price of 2. Inside has been remodeled with new paint, carpet, crown molding, tile counters, and cieling fans. Large grass area in backyard along with a nice patio for relaxing.On the surface, this property is unremarkable (especially since we don't have too much of an idea of what it actually looks like, other than the fact that it's a modest
What would prices be like... 2007-11-01 20:46:00 ...If there was no So Cal housing bubble? Here are some properties for sale now that were last sold in 2000, which happened to be the last year before the bubble started taking off.An explanation: Projected prices are estimated assuming a very generous appreciation rate of 7% per year, every year for seven years until now.Projected income required is a conservative estimate of how much money an owner should make per year. Difference is the amount between the current asking price and the projected 2007 price.34041 Aurelio, Dana Point, 926292000 purchase price: $349,000Projected 2007 price: $560,418Projected income required: $140,104.50Current asking price: $989,000Difference: $428,58234458 Calle Carmelita, S. Clemente, 926242000 purchase price: $289,5002007 price: $464,874Income required: $116,218.50Asking price: $645,000Difference: $180,12647 Via Barcelona, RSM, 926882000 purchase price: $194,0002007 price: $311,522Income required: $77,880.50Asking price: $479,000Difference: $167,47832
What not to do 2007-11-10 12:50:00 Depending on one's point of view, this can be either a sad tale of things gone awry, or a biting case of poetic justice.26432 San Ramon Way, which is a 4-bedroom, 3-bath house in Mission Viejo, is up for sale with an asking price of $699,000.Here's the listing description: GREAT COMMUNITY, SINGLE LOADED, CUL-DE-SAC STREET. SPACIOUS FLOORPLAN. HIGH CATHEDRAL CEILING ENTRY OPENS TO LUXURY LIVING AND DINING ROOM. FROM ENTERTAINING FAMILY ROOM WALK INTO BREAKFAST AREA & GOURMET KITCHEN. CUSTOM SHUTTER WINDOWS THROUGHOUT. MAIN FLOOR BEDROOM CONVERTED TO OFFICE WITH BUILT-IN DESK & CABINETS. FULL BATHROOM DOWNSTAIR. COZY BACK YARD W/ MANY FRUIT TREES & ROSES. NEAR BY SIERRA & MONTENOSO RECREATION CENTERS.Reader mja considers this property to be "a better-than-average home, and (it's) priced 15-20% below all the other homes in the area." The property has been on Redfin for 93 days now and the listing is still active.You guessed it: There's more to the story.Original list p
All together now... 2007-11-09 11:51:00 ...The...high...end...is...not...immune! Thanks to reader mja for leading us to this property in upscale Nellie Gail Ranch in Laguna Hills. Quick, snatch this place up before the opportunity passes... 26241 Hitching Rail Rd, 92653 Asking price: $1,499,900 Asking price/ sq ft: $357Original asking price: $1,924,000 ($424,100 reduction)Income requirement: $374,975Purchase price: $1,824,000Purchase date:10/27/2006Size: 4 beds, 5 baths, 4,200 sq ft (built in 1980) MLS: S482980 (213 days on Redfin)2006 property tax: $11,838HOA dues: $80Type: Single Family Residence Style: Contemporary Stories: One levelLot size: 0.85 acresFrom listing: Located In Prestigious Nellie Gail, This Single Story Corner Lot Estate Home Sits On Nearly One Acre. Completely Remodeled W/ Designer Travertine & Hardwood Flooring. Dual Master Bedrooms With Luxurious En Suite Bathrooms. Each Master Has A Separate Sitting Room Or Home Office Attached. The Open Plan Kitchen Has Custom Cabinets, Granite Countertops & Read more:together
How about 38% off? 2007-11-08 08:51:00 I hope that reduction sounds good, because it's exactly the kind of discount you can get if you're willing to pay asking price for this San Juan Capistrano condo... 26547 Calle Santa Barbara #46, SJC, 92675 Asking price: $265,000 Asking price/ sq ft: $262Income requirement: $66,250Purchase price: $430,000Purchase date: 10/4/2006Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,011 sq ft (built in 1974) MLS: S499359 (99 days on Redfin) ZipRealty price tracker: Price Reduced: 10/24/07 -- $280,000 to $265,0002006 property tax: $3,222HOA dues: $200Type: Condominium Style: Spanish From listing: Bank will accept list price. Need quick sale. Three bedrooms and two baths. Needs some TLC however this upstairs unit has great potential. Large living room, family style eating area ajoining kitchen. Private patio for entertaining. Close to shopping and the quaint town of San Juan and walking distance to the famous San Juan Mission! Five minutes and your at the ocean. Don't miss this great opportunity.
Laguna Beach: immunity or ridiculosity? 2007-11-07 09:12:00 There is talk about the possibility of high-end immunity in real estate - that is to say, more expensive properties (usually either on the coast or in a prestigious area) can get the best of both worlds: They appreciate along with traditionally less-expensive areas during bull markets, but when the inevitable correction comes, they don't seem to fall much in value at all (or even show gains). Perhaps it's because "land is scarce," or that "there is never-ending demand for these exclusive places."This demand, some would even argue, means escalating prices of luxury homes are of little concern to those with excess cash who want to buy coastal properties and don't care how much more they have to pay for the privilege. In that scenario, these types of properties really could go up in value perpetually, assuming more people with huge cash reserves are ready to step in and continue to bid prices up.We will use LagunaBeach
as a case study of what can happen to prices in a luxury market be Read more:Laguna Beach
Here's to you...RSM 2007-11-06 09:09:00 Rancho Santa Margarita is 3rd in the county in terms of highest percentage of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) for sale. So, to celebrate, here is a quick tour of some of the 108 unfortunate distressed properties in RSM that are on the market.First, a 2003 rollback...89 CastanoAsking price: $179,000Purchase price: $269,000 (5/31/2006)2003 price: $185,000 (8/12/2003)Size: 1 bed, 1 bath, 600 sq ftAbout as close to a 2003 rollback as you can get... 10 CoralinoAsking price: $179,999Purchase price: $265,000 (5/19/2005)2003 price: $179,000 (1/28/2003)Size: 1 bed, 2 baths, 720 sq ftYour run-of-the-mill 2004 rollback...16 Calle VaquetaAsking price: $545,000Purchase price: $618,000 (5/26/2004)Loss (incl. 6% sales costs): $105,700Size: 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,600 sq ftAbout a $200k loser. No photo...7 Lompoc CtAsking price: $535,000Purchase price: $700,000 (12/9/2005)Loss: $197,100Size: 4 beds, 3 baths, 2,080 sq ft34% discount from last sale...23 Via CrestaAsking price: $204,000
Watch for falling knives 2007-11-15 11:04:00 If some housing bulls are correct, there is a small army of potential buyers already assembled that's chomping at the bit to enter the market at the first sign of either a bottom or possible soon-to-come stabilization - heck, some would even have you believe that we're at or near the bottom already.Then, again, Wells Fargo just called the current housing market the worst since the Great Depression, but hey...not everyone can always agree on everything.Don't buy anything based on blind faith. Do your own research. Learn about and track prices for your target neighborhoods/cities - historically, during the bubble run-up, and now going forward.That way, you'll be the first to know when prices approach reasonable levels for your focus areas. By reasonable this includes taking into account realistic appreciation rates that are standard for the area. No, 25% appreciation per year is not normal - not even in Laguna Beach.If you jump in too soon, you'll either catch a falling
knife or be
36% off in San Juan? "NEET!" 2007-11-14 08:37:00 It's hard not to feel for San Juan
Capistrano condo owners who recently bought properties, considering how fast prices have fallen. Even the NAR is conceding that 2008 isn't looking so great right now for real estate, either. Not good news for this property, which is already trying to sell at a steep discount: 31604 Los Rios St. #145, SJC, 92675Asking price: $305,000Purchase price: $475,000Purchase date: 3/21/2006Original asking price: $449,000Income requirement: $76,250Size: 3 beds, 1.5 baths, 1,165 sq ft (built in 1978)From listing: VERY NEET TOWNHOME, Excelent for first time buyer, located in very nice area, walking distance to school, shopping center, Mission and transportacion.Word count of listing: 22. Misspelled word and grammar mistakes count: 5.English doesn't appear to be the agent's first language, which is fine. But would it have killed them to run this by someone who perhaps had a better grasp of the language? The way it is now - with mistakes galore
Out of town 2007-11-12 09:06:00 Since it's Veterans Day weekend, we're going to get out of town for today's entry and chronicle a few properties in other parts of the country. Happy and safe travels to all... 5992 Grand Pavillion Way, Alexandria, Va., 22303Asking price: $520,000Purchase price: $739,900Purchase date: 3/6/2006Potential loss (incl. 6% sales costs): $251,100Size: 3 beds, 3.5 bathsFrom listing: 3 LEVEL, 1 FP 3BEDROOM 3.5 BATHS GRANITE STAINLESS STEELE APPL. HARDWOOD FLOORS. * A MUST SEE TO APPRECIATE * 2 CAR GARAGE. .ONLY 2 YEARS OLD. GREAT LOCATION CLOSE TO OLD TOWN AND MAJOR HIGHWAYS. APPT. ONLY. THANKS FOR SHOWING!! -short sale--bring an offer! 1632 23rd Ave, Seattle, Wash., 98122Asking price: $439,950Purchase price: $500,000Purchase date: 11/8/2006Potential loss: $86,447Size: 3 beds, 1 bathFrom listing: Completely fenced corner lot home is awaiting that new home owner. Shopping is only blocks away. Neighborhood is well established and location key. Minutes from dow
Pop grammar and spelling quiz 2007-11-20 08:47:00 This Lake Forest townhouse is being offered as a short sale. It's bad enough the sellers stand to lose $135,894 assuming a sale at this price with 6% sales costs. It's not helping that the listing description is plain awful in terms of basic spelling
and grammar.Here's the listing description, with grammar and spelling issues in bold: High Volted ceilings with lots of windows!Very light and bright!This is the biggest model with 2 car garage. This home is in excellent shape. It has beaitiful stone floors and wood floors. This is a Short Sale. Be the first to get the bank to accept your offer. .. .this is a steal!!! Lots of parking on this side of Boulder. Close to park, pool and school. Seller's paid $530,000 2 years ago and put upgrades in throughout! Nice wrap around yard with new fence, Lot's of nice Cabnets in Garage.I don't agree with fluffy, extraneous statements that say nothing about the house (e.g. "light and bright"), but I'll keep everything generally as it was before,
South County recent sales 2007-11-19 12:37:00 Here's a sweep of a handful of South
OC properties that have changed hands in the past three months. You'll notice some of the properties that were sold for the first time in many years returned appreciation rates well below those seen by many properties that quickly changed hands during the bubble times.33571 Binnacle Drive, Dana PointSales price: $1,300,000Sales date: 10/1Price/ sq ft: $795Previous sale: $215,500 on 3/23/1984Yearly appreciation rate: 7.9%31482 Calle La Purisma #25, SJC Sales price: $290,000Sales date: 10/11Price/ sq ft: $254Previous sale: $373,500 on 5/09/2007Yearly appreciation rate: -44.9%23 Laurelhurst Drive, Ladera RanchSales price: $849,500 Sales date: 10/11Previous sale: $885,000 on 3/28/2006 Yearly appreciation rate: -2.6%26572 Nacome Drive, M Read more:County
Flip or not? 2007-11-16 02:01:00 It's becoming more and more difficult to find attempted property flips in Orange County. Then again, TLC did just recently re-air an episode of the increasingly irrelevant "Flip That House" that featured a local RE agent and a $1-million+ Aliso Viejo property.Flips-in-the-making used to be easy to spot. They were the ones that had changed hands in the past few months, and were listed for way more than the previous sales price. They also had some predictable keywords in the listing, like "completely remodeled," "upgraded" and "WOW!!!!!" OK, the third one not as much.Now, the vast majority of properties that have "changed hands" recently are foreclosures that went back to the bank and are now REOs. The attempted flips are few and far between.Is the following property an attempted flip? See what you think. Many factors point to "yes," but if that were the case, a few important things about it just don' t make any sense.24132 Ankerton Drive, Lake ForestAsking price: $618,888Purchase pric
In other words: The South OC market 2007-11-26 08:30:00 This blog has one overarching goal: To encourage as many homeowners, buyers and potential buyers (everyone) as possible to educate themselves as best they can about real estate in their area, since the purchase of a home will most likely be the biggest financial decision of their lives.This blog does not try to communicate any one particular point of view or philosophy, but instead tries to present what is happening locally through concrete data and examples in order to let people draw their own conclusions.In the interest of full disclosure, in case it wasn't fairly clear already: this blogger is generally bearish on real estate in OC in the short term and bullish in the long term. But that doesn't mean much; I don't profit whether the market gains or falls. I simply report what I see. Real estate can be a good investment at the right time and place. I don't believe we are there right now. I am optimistic that the day will be here once again - sooner, I hope, rather than later.Her Read more:South
Will they or won't they? 2007-11-24 14:49:00 A reader tipped us to this interesting Laguna Niguel property. It's being offered at a steep discount from the price paid in 2005, but as a short sale it is subject to lender approval. Will they agree to take a huge hit? 22822 Tamora Drive, Laguna Niguel, 92677Asking price: $455,000 Asking price/ sq ft: $332Income requirement: $113,750Purchase price: $625,000Purchase date: 12/15/2005Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 1,369 sq ft (built in 1977) MLS: F1743733 (6 days on Redfin)2006 property tax: $6,356HOA dues: $206Type: Single Family Residence Style: Traditional Stories: One LevelFrom listing: SHORT SALE SUBJECT TO LENDERS APPROVAL. GATED COURTYARD ENTERY TO THIS BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED BEACH HOUSE. TILE FLOORING THROUGH OUT KITCHEN FLOOR. DINING ROOM AND LIVING ROOM. PLUS TILE FLOORING IN BATH ROOMS. MIRRORED DINING ROOM AND PLANTATION SHUTTERS THROUGHOUT THE HOME."Beach house?" Hardly. Close to the beach, but not close enough to actually deserve this label. It is right next to a st
Thankful on Thanksgiving 2007-11-22 14:12:00 Happy Thanksgiving
! Hope everyone enjoys an excellent holiday with their loved ones. I'm grateful for a lot of things, including my family and friends, my health, my steady job, our nice place to live in a very nice neighborhood (when will it be safe to buy again?). Too many other things to mention.On a day like today, it can't be very nice to be a seller who either can't find a buyer, is facing foreclosure or who is looking at a tough financial road ahead as they attempt to unload their property at a loss and rebuild their finances. We wish all of them the best. Particularly the owner(s) of this San Juan Capistrano house. Not a condo this time, but a single family home.Considering how big the loss is, though, it is likely and we are optimistic that it's a bank or banks that will be absorbing the brunt, and the individual owners will be relatively spared from the fallout of a loss of at least 42% in value in a year and a half. 29425 Avocado Lane, SJC, 92675 Asking Read more:Thankful
The 365 club 2007-11-21 09:50:00 We are aware that properties aren't quite selling as quickly as they used to. But this is ridiculous. All of the following properties are members of my not-so-elite "365 club" - they've all been on the market for more than a year without a sale. All are still active on Redfin. Get 'em while they last... 35 Wightman Court, Dana PointDays on Redfin: 539Asking price: $849,900 ($773/sq ft)Original asking price: $849,900Purchase price: $816,000Description quote: "Ready to move in and selling furnished."Analysis: Think price is an issue? There's another same-size unit for sale that's asking $719,900, and it's been on the market for 123 days. Does not bode well for either of them. 437 Calle Empalme, San ClementeDays on Redfin: 425Asking price: $895,000 ($597/sq ft)Original asking price: $895,000Purchase price: $195,000Quote: "COULD PUT ADDITIONAL GARAGE, MORE LIVING SPACE, YOU NAME IT!"Analysis: Despite the can-do description, this property is priced abo
Let's play: "Now...or Then" 2007-12-01 12:56:00 It's the weekend, so let's have a little fun. Do you know the Price is Right game "Now...or Then?" In case you don't, the premise is quite simple. The contestant has to decide whether the price provided on certain products is current, or whether it's from a specific date in the past.We'll do something similar, but with a different twist. Some of the statements below are recent, while others were made in the LA Times in the spring of 1991 - early on in the last real estate downturn. Read each quote and decide for yourself: now...or then?“It is going to be a gradual process of bringing the inventory (of unsold homes) down, but things look quite good for a rebound to begin.”Brokers say reduced housing prices and low mortgage rates appear to have finally stabilized the real estate market. “The worst is very much over," said Clarence Bales, manager of Century 21 Central Coast Realty…"At the low end…people are attracted by prices that are still soft and by low interest rates,"
25% off peak in Aliso Viejo 2007-11-30 11:03:00 19 Brookstone Place in Aliso Viejo is up for sale and looks likely that it is an REO, since the last time a change of ownership occurred was in September, and this property is already back on the market, priced lower than the last amount. It's listed as a 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath, 1,600 sq ft condo. Asking price: $549,900. Days on Redfin: 31. Short, sweet and bland description: "Great Floorplan close to SOKA University. Tropical rear yard with Koi Pond, Banana trees. Loft area for desk, computer, etc."The price was originally $574,900, but was lowered to the current asking price within about a month. Are they getting antsy? Is this new price reflective of the current market, and will a buyer now be found? Past sales in the immediate neighborhood, arranged by date: $670k (12/29/06); $665k (2/21); $680k (2/23); $650k (9/26); $612k (10/3). We don't know the sizes and features of these properties, but it seems to indicate a downward trend.Previous sale (before likely bank possession): $730,00
How bad is it now? 2007-11-28 21:58:00 Here is the median price per square foot of a single family detached home in Orange County from 1980-1993, according to the LA Times:1980: $731981: 841982: 851983: 841984: 851985: 881986: 931987: 1041988: 1251989: 1491990: 152 (108% increase since 1980)1991: 1471992: 1421993: 133 (Prices would not reach $130 again until 1997)Here are median price/sq ft numbers for Orange County from the following years, which I collected from other sporadic LA Times stories. Since this data is from different articles, it's not going to be perfect; the importance is not the exact data points themselves but their directionality.1994: $1241995: Not available1996: 1241997: 129 (This was the highest point in two years)1998: 147These numbers suggest Orange County real estate prices were highest in that cycle in about 1990, and hit a bottom in about 1996. Yes, there were concerns about the market well before 1990, but median prices were still going up until that point (sound familiar?).The 1990s downturn, th
Boom and bust 2007-11-28 11:26:00 Foreclosed homes typically sell at steep discounts, having a significant negative impact on neighboring properties.The above is a quote from the letter FDIC chairperson Sheila Bair wrote to CNBC real estate reporter Diana Olick about a possible loan modification program to save more than 1 million at-risk subprime borrowers.The implication of Bair's statement was foreclosures hurt neighborhoods. We're not going to debate that point - in fact, we will examine what falling property values can do in an upcoming post. But let's look a little deeper at how we got here, with scores of projected foreclosures looming over many unsuspecting (?) neighborhoods. Follow me on this one...The recent housing boom (born from factors like easy access to credit, rampant speculation and excessive buyer optimism) created a housing market that exceeded all rational economic bounds. As houses shot up in value - while at the same time disconnected from fundamentals - properties commanded higher and higher
Make an offer they (the bank) can't refuse 2007-11-27 10:05:00 Some positive news (we think) from South County broker Vince Bindi, who told the OCR's Jon Lansner: "The number of homes Pending In Escrow increased again this past week … this time by 5% for the week of Thanksgiving and the number of Homes Active for Sale dropped by 1.5%, resulting in the overall months of Inventory dropping to its lowest level (13.5 months) since August of this year. Of even more interest, the low end of the market (Prices less then $450,000) is leading the way and now has the lowest months of inventory at 10.7 months."I'd prefer to hold off judgment until we see the actual closed sales stats. Particularly since even some in the media (the mainstream variety, not extremists) are saying there could easily be another credit crunch unfolding sooner rather than later.And, one week alone doesn't reverse a downward pattern. Check out a visual of the foreclosure numbers now versus 1992, from OC Register reporter Matt Padilla.Now, on to an REO trainwreck that could be o
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