Owner: Vegas Watch URL:http://vegaswatch.blogspot.com Join Date: Tue, 28 Aug 2007 15:47:58 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: A blog focusing on baseball and college basketball, with analysis, profiles, predictions, betting tips, and more. Site statistics:Click here
College Basketball Notes: 10 Weeks Left 2007-08-26 13:50:00 Since I need an excuse to write about college basketball in August, I'm going to start looking through some headlines each week and seeing what effect they'll have on the upcoming season.Alabama's Steele to have second knee surgery (ESPN)This seems like a really long time ago (I guess it kind of is), but on December 4th last year, Alabama was in the top 5 in both polls. This is notable because they finished the year 8th in the SEC, and lost in the first round of the SEC tournament. They didn't even make the NCAAs, and lost to UMass in the first round of the NIT.A big reason for this was Steele. He was bothered by both tendinitis in his knee and a high ankle sprain all year, averaging only 8.6 ppg, missing full games, and playing 12 minutes or less in three others. This was quite a disappointment, as he had averaged 14.3 ppg and made the All-SEC team in his sophomore year, and was actually a preseason All-American prior to the 06-07 season.It looks like it's going to be a tough yea Read more:College
, Basketball
, Notes
, Weeks
, College Basketball
Profile: Matt Cain 2007-08-25 18:47:00 These profiles will theoretically run every Monday, on a player whose talents are overlooked. If you have a suggestion for a profile, please e-mail me at VegasWatch@gmail.com.There are two “problems” with Matt Cain.The first is that he has a record of 6-13 this year.The other is when you think of the Giants (which is not often, as they’re in last place), you think of Bonds. When you think of a Giants pitcher, Barry Zito comes to mind. When you think “young Giants pitcher”, Tim Lincecum fills that void. Because of this, Cain goes largely unnoticed.Quite obviously, none of these things are Matt Cain’s fault. Among things he can control, he’s doing pretty well for himself- he’s actually younger than Lincecum (he doesn’t turn 23 until October!), and his 3.67 ERA is lower than the ERAs of both Carlos Zambrano and Daisuke Matsuzaka.People paid attention in 2005, when Cain was called up in late August and went had a 2.33 ERA in seven starts at the age of 20. But, as of
Johan Santana is Not Perfect 2007-08-25 11:00:00 At the beginning of the year (probably around June 9th), there were a bunch of “What’s Wrong With Johan
” articles, because Santana
had started the season 6-6. This, of course, was dumb, because he had a 3.24 ERA, and had struck out 96 in 86 innings- there was very little wrong with Johan, beyond the fact that the Twins had scored three or less runs in 9 of his 13 starts. Predictably, Santana has improved since, and now stands at 14-9 with a 2.97 ERA. However, there is a disturbing trend that had been true throughout the year.Here is Santana’s ERA (in red), and his FIP (Fielding Independent ERA, based soley on K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 (in blue), for each year since ’04.The disturbing thing about this year’s performance has been the spike in FIP. The reason for the increase is quite obvious.Well, that’s bad. He’s gone from giving up 0.91 HR/9 over the last three years to 1.34 HR/9 this year, which is the only reason his FIP has increased so drastically (his BB/9 and K/9 are bo Read more:Perfect
Ryan Howard, Strikeout King? 2007-08-24 21:57:00 Apparently, Ryan Howard
strikes out a lot. While I knew this was generally true, I hadn't realized that Howard is on a record pace until I came across this article.After not striking out tonight, Ryan Howard has 151 Ks through 127 Phillies games, putting him on pace for 193. The record is held by Adam Dunn, with 195 in 2004.While Howard does look like he'll challenge the record, he isn't exactly in uncharted territory- here are the 10 guys who have struck out the most through 127 team games.The fairly unique thing about this record that makes it different from others is the fact that it's bad. People aren't interested in owning it, and they generally take somewhat drastic measures to avoid doing so. Here are a few examples.Preston Wilson, 2000 (Marlins)Through 127 games, Wilson was on pace for a very impressive 205 Ks. He couldn't quite keep that up, but did have 187 with one game left. At the time, the record was 189, set by Bobby Bonds in 1970. As the last game meant nothing fo
This Week's Links (8/20-8/24) 2007-08-23 21:04:00 I'm going to start doing links every Friday, so if you have something you'd like posted, e-mail me at VegasWatch@gmail.com.If you watch your team on a consistent basis and want to chime in on their individual fielding talents, Tangotiger is doing a pretty cool scouting report survey.Over at WDWGDaB, Lozo has a fantastic weekly feature called "Stop Michael Kay Thursdays". This week he looks at Kay's extremely annoying habit of awkwardly posing questions to others in the booth- I really can't describe how bad Kay is at this, but Lozo kept track for an entire game. Good stuff.My favorite comment to come out of the Orioles giving up 30 runs came from Chris Mottram. He's since edited it, but before the second game of the doubleheader this post included "More updates to come later, if I don't kill myself first."Not surprisingly, With Leather was the place to go for analysis of the DeShawn Stevenson sitution. In a post titled "UNFAMOUS PERSON SHOT AT NBA STAR'S HOME", WL notes, "When a
Futures Watch: Week 21 2007-08-22 10:14:00 All five sites have lines up right now, and the Playoff Odds are more volatile then ever, so here's this week's Futures Watch.The Mets are on top for the second week in a row. To me, this seems logical. They have a 96.7% chance of making the playoffs, so let's just pretend they're in. Their odds (7.5:1) suggest they have an average chance, compared to the other seven teams that make the playoffs, of winnings the World Series. This is simply not true. They have the highest run differential (+64) of any NL team, and came in first in all of baseball the last time I ran the Secret Sauce numbers. The Mets have a much better than average chance in the postseason, and for that reason 7.5:1 is a very good line. The Brewers are second; their line is extremely volatile, as they are currently tied for first with the Cubs. If the Brewers go one game ahead and the line doesn't change, their index would increase to about 1.5. But if they fall a game behind the Cubs, it would decrease to 1.2.The
What Are The Odds: Brandon Webb 2007-08-20 22:23:00 On Wednesday night Brandon
Webb will continue his assault on Orel Hershiser's 59 inning scoreless streak. To this point, he has hurled 42 consecutive shutout innings, including complete game shutouts in his last three starts.It seems doable- Webb is only 18 innings away from breaking the record, which is two more CG shutouts. But how realistic is it that he'll actually get there? First, let's see how unlikely it was for him to make it this far. Before the streak started, Webb had pitched 144 innings and allowed at least one run in 41 of them, or about 28%. Here are the chances that he would reach the following milestones: Last week I did this same exercise for Bobby Jenks (whose streak ended at 41 batters on Monday night). Jenks' streak was actually less likely (1 in 2,243,780), since he only gets about 70% of hitters out, while Webb pitches a scoreless inning about 72% of the time- that 2% actually makes a big difference in a streak this long.Here are the odds that Webb would hav
Michael Vick Odds! 2007-08-20 19:44:00 "The only thing that matters is winning football games."-Michael
Vick, January 2005You probably thought there was a good chance you'd never be able to bet on Michael Vick
and the Atlanta Falcons again. Turns out, you were only half right.The wonderful people at BetUS.com, because they are awesome, have posted odds on what will end up happening to Michael Vick (the irony of odds being posted on a scandal potentially involving a gambling ring...it's overwhelming, really).They have five different props- what his suspension from Goodell will be, how much jail time he'll be sentenced to, how much he'll be fined, what random stuff he'll do before the end of 2010, and if he'll ever play again. I feel it is my civic duty to break down these lines, so thats what I shall do.(Note: For each table, the first column is the listed odds, and the second column is the real chance those odds imply for that event happening.)Will M Vick ever throw another pass as an NFL QB?Talk about a long term bet
All Hail Johan 2007-08-20 14:07:00 "Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson said Santana threw only four sliders, meaning the other 108 pitches were all fastballs and changeups." -Star Tribune, via NeyerAt about 3pm yesterday I noticed online that Johan
Santana had stuck out 7 hitters through three perfect innings. Rarely is it this obvious that one has a chance to witness something special, so I tuned in.Over the next five innings, Santana continued at this pace, finishing with 17 K's through 8 (video). Although I found myself yelling at the TV as Gardenhire decided to bring Joe Nathan in for the 9th, I understood his decision, as Santana had thrown 112 pitches. For good reason, the Twins are very cautious with Johan, who actually has never thrown over 120 pitches in his career.In the end, I was forced to settle for having seen the best performance of Johan Santana's career (according to Game Score, the second best was a 2004 start against the Royals, where he threw a CG 3-hit shutout, striking out 13 and walking 2).In t
When Statistics Go Wrong 2007-08-19 16:04:00 Note: I am a huge Indians fan. Usually I try to be unbiased. Not in this post.As I write this, the Indians and Devil Rays are in the top of the 11th. It's been an up and down game, as the Indians had a 2-0 lead, but Sabathia gave up solo homers in the fourth and seventh.The game was tied at 2 after 9, but the Indians scored in the top of the 10th, on a Victor Martinez sac fly.Now, I understand that Joe Borowski is the Indians' closer. I'm not happy about this, and I don't understand why, as Borowski is clearly their third best reliever. When Borowski comes into the game in the ninth (or, in this case, the tenth), I am always terrified, but I have gotten somewhat used to this, as I felt the same when when Bob Wickman came in. He has had his problems (especially this game, shown in the picture on the right), but coming into today he did have a 1.11 WPA.What I don't understand is the insistence on keeping Borowski in no matter what until he gives up the lead. The Indians don't play Read more:Statistics
, Wrong
Profile: Erik Bedard 2007-08-18 16:04:00 I've decided to start a new feature here at Vegas Watch, where I arbitrarily select a player that doesn't get as much attention as he probably deserves, and write a lot about him. These things will run every Monday, in theory. If you have a suggestion for a profile, please e-mail me at VegasWatch@gmail.com. Erik Bedard
is on pace to strike out more batters (271) than any AL pitcher has since 2000 (Pedro, 284). You probably didn't know that (I didn't until I just looked it up), because Bedard plays for the fourth place Orioles, and is just 24th in the majors with 12 wins.Bedard is having a breakout year, but he isn't exactly new on the scene. He has been the Orioles' ace since 2005 (although, before this year, calling someone the Orioles' ace was like telling them they're the wittiest FanHouse commenter), and won 15 games last year.But things have been different for Bedard in 2007, as he's been the second most valuable starter in baseball (behind Peavy). I thought I'd take a l
Thank You, That Was Extremely Informative 2007-08-18 13:42:00 I'm going to start experimenting with occasional short, FJM-style posts for stupid stuff that bothers me. Here goes.So I was at the gym this afternoon, and the LLWS was on ESPN (because nobody plays on Sundays at 1 anymore- thanks, FOX!). Naturally, I was mostly concentrating on the Bottom Line, as my interest in the LLWS is somewhere between the WNBA and NHL.And then for the Reds-Brewers game, they offered up this stat:"Braun: .322 BA, 11 HR at home this season (39 games)"You probably already see where I'm going with this, but here are Braun's splits:So now I am confused. Are you trying to tell me that I should expect Ryan Braun to be worse than usual? Or are you simply unaware that Ryan Braun mashes, regardless of where games are played? I somehow feel stupider now.I look forward to Monday, when the Brewers play at Arizona. Read more:Thank
, Informative
This Week's Links (8/13-8/17) 2007-08-17 10:16:00 I had everything planned out; write about the Diamondbacks for Friday, then have a Fausto Carmona profile ready for Monday. Well, over at BP they beat me too it, doing both yesterday (both excellent articles, BTW), so there goes that. Anyway, some links I enjoyed today, then a profile on...well, someone, on Monday. I'm going to start doing links every Friday, so if you have something you'd like posted, e-mail me at VegasWatch@gmail.com.When Rob Neyer always used to refer to Joe Posnanski as the "best baseball writer in America" when he linked to him, I was quite skeptical, but I always clicked over anyway. At this point, I completely agree with Neyer, as Posnanski combines sabermetric analysis and brilliant writing better than anyone else. He's been going through his best fielders by position, and this week he took on left field (Carl Crawford was his pick).I thought the most interesting part of the Pete Maravich HORSE video was the kind of shots he was trying- he wasn't throwing u
Updated Odds for MLB Awards 2007-08-16 09:29:00 BetUS.com posted odds for the four major awards in each league this morning- here's a look at where they may have screwed up.AL MVP: A-Rod is -450, Vlad and Magglio are each +450, and that's really all you need to know.I'm not so sure Rodriguez should be such a huge favorite. He does have 39 home runs, to Ordonez's 22. But that's his only big advantage. Thanks to the fact he's hitting .407 w/RISP, Magglio is only 6 RBIs back, despite the huge HR deficit. And, Magglio's BA is 50 points higher. Assuming the Yankees make the playoffs, I think A-Rod probably wins the award, but Magglio should probably be +300, even +250.AL Cy Young: Apparently they were trashed while posting these odds. Santana is +140, Sabathia is +275, Haren is +350, Lackey +1000; Bedard and Beckett both aren't individually listed, but the Field is +350.Going on the assumption that they're just being cautions after their earlier screw up, I can understand Johan being the favorite. He's certainly doesn't have t Read more:Awards
Futures Watch: Week 20 2007-08-16 08:20:00 This late in the season a team's playoff odds can change very quickly. Last night the Indians beat the Tigers, 5-2. With that one game, their playoff chances jumped from 47% to 56%. This big jumps can have a huge effect on futures lines, and since sites don't always update their lines every day, this can give bettors an advantage.The top 10 current lines: The Mets have won three in a row, as their WS% continues to ascend (it was 11.9% on August 1), while their lines are stagnant. This doesn't surprise me- in the standings, the Mets are still in first place, a few games up, but in reality, their playoff % has gone from 81% to 89% this week.Colorado is also on the rise, as they've won 3 of 4 against the Cubs and Padres to see their postseason odds go from 17% to almost 28% over the last five days. Despite this, they're still either 45:1 or 50:1 on three sites (SB, SI, VIP), so it's worth waiting to see how they play over the next few days.The Braves come in as the third best line o
NCAAB: Tennessee Schools Look Like Early '08 Favorites 2007-08-15 20:31:00 Although I've pretty much written exclusively about baseball on this site so far, I started it with the intention of concentrating on both baseball and college basketball. I still plan on doing that- in fact, I'm going to begin right now.With the college basketball season quickly approaching (less than three months until the CBE Classic!), I've been doing some work looking back on year, and forward to the upcoming season. In doing so, using data from Ken Pomeroy's website, I put together the following table, which shows, for each team that made the Sweet 16 last year, what percentage of their 06-07 total minutes played each team has returning for the 07-08 season. This table doesn't capture the effects of incoming freshmen and transfers, but I think it can still be pretty informative.Memphis, the top team here, also has the #3 freshman in the country, PG Derrick Rose. Memphis should breeze through C-USA again (they're 29-1 in conference games the last two years), and has a good s Read more:Tennessee
, Schools
, Early
What Are The Odds: Bobby Jenks 2007-08-13 20:52:00 As you have likely heard, White Sox closer Bobby
Jenks has retired all 41 batters he's faced over the last 13 appearances. Obviously this is a very impressive streak, and quite rare, as he has tied the ML record held by the immortal Jim Barr. But just how unusual is it for a player of Jenks' ability to put together such a streak?On July 18, the day before the streak started, Jenks had pitched 39.1 innings, striking out 36 while allowing 35 hits and walking 12. His ERA was 3.89, and he had allowed a line of .246/.299/.324. The OBP of .299 is what we'll use.Allowing an OBP of .299 means the chance of Jenks getting any random hitter is 70.1%. Given that information, here's the chances of him going on streaks of various lengths.So, essentially, it's quite unlikely. To be fair, these are the odds that he will retire this many consecutive batters in any single stretch of this number of games. According to FanGraphs, Jenks has faced 198 batter so far this season. Here are the numbers for
Profile: Hanley Ramirez 2007-08-10 21:05:00 I've decided to start a new feature here at Vegas Watch, where I completely arbitrarily select a player that doesn't get as much attention as he probably deserves. Although that player will then continue to fly under the radar, I'll feel better about the situation. If you have a suggestion for a profile, please e-mail me at VegasWatch@gmail.com.I doubt there are many people who would have guessed that Hanley Ramirez
leads all of baseball in VORP. Personally, I probably would have guessed A-Rod, Magglio, Miguel Cabrera, or Prince Fielder. In reality, Hanley Ramirez is first, with a VORP of 67.2 through Saturday's games.There are three reasons for this- Hanley Ramirez is an absurdly talented hitter, he plays shortstop, and VORP ignores how well you play your position, only adjusting for what position you play. Here's a closer look at the Marlins' shorstop.Minors (Boston Red Sox, 2001-2005)16-year old Hanley Ramirez was signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Boston Red Sox on J
What Happened To The Tigers? 2007-08-09 18:45:00 On the morning of July 24, the Detroit Tigers
were 59-38, a game behind the Red Sox for the best record in baseball. They were two games up on the Indians in the AL Central (three in the loss column). They had gone 29-15 since the beginning of June, and had about a 91% chance of making the playoffs.On July 24 the Tigers lost both ends of a doubleheader to the White Sox, which began their current 4-13 stretch.After today's 8-1 loss to Tampa Bay, and the Indians' 7-5 win in Chicago, Detroit is now 1.5 games out of first. Their playoff % has plummeted all the way to 46%. So, what happened?LineupThe Tigers' offense was inevitably going to fall of a little. At the All-Star break, they were hitting about .325 with RISP, compared to .290 overall- they had gotten lucky in key situations, allowing them to score more runs than one would expect.On July 24, Detroit's team BA was .289, and it's still at that level. But a deeper look tells us what really happened here: Those are some unbeliev
Futures Watch: Week 19 2007-08-08 20:59:00 All five sites have futures odds up right now, so there are some good ones this week:The Padres were hovering around 15:1 in early July, and got as low as 10:1 about three weeks into July. Then, right after the trade deadline, there was an abrupt jump from 15:1 to 25:1, where they are a tremendous value- coming into today's games they were about 50% to make it into October, and with there pitching, they could be a tough out in the playoffs.The Rockies at 60:1 are pretty good; at this point I have no idea what is going to happen in the NL West, so by that logic taking the team with the highest odds (excluding the Giants, who are terrible) isn't a bad idea.The Indians at 15:1 are also interesting, as that's pretty high considering they were at 10:1 for most of July. Westbrook is finally coming around, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts. If they can get him, Sabathia, Carmona and Byrd all pitching to their capabilities at the same time, they should be able to play on
Trying to Make Sense of it All 2007-08-07 12:56:00 Well, it happened (video). I watched it live, and I really didn't know what to think- I found the whole thing somewhat surreal. The Aaron video response was nice, as was the absence of Allan (quick side note- could Selig have possibly come out of this looking worse? The low point was clearly 755, both his reaction and the press release. Thankfully he wasn't there for 756.).I thought I'd now take a minute to look back at how the public perception has gotten to its current point with the new HR king, concentrating on the seemingly contrasing perceptions of the average fan and the media.The thing that got me to thinking about this was a recent ESPN.com poll asking what your reaction would be when Bonds breaks the record. I can't find the link, but I was caught by surprise when the results were split pretty much evenly between the three options ("Boo", "Cheer", "No Reaction"). This clearly clashes with the media coverage of Bonds, which I would estimate as being about 80% "Boo" and 20% Read more:Sense
A Reasonable Yankees Futures Line!? 2007-08-07 01:06:00 I will post an updated Futures Watch later this week, but I thought this was significant enough to stand alone.As much as I talk about how we can pretty accurately gauge the strength of teams by looking at various Vegas odds, I do think there is something of a bias toward big markets. This bias is especially evident regarding futures lines, and can specifically be seen in the lines of the Cubs and Yankees
. In this post I am going to focus on the Yankees.Taking advantage of a soft schedule since the ASB, the Yankees have stormed into Wild Card contention, currently only a half game behind the Tigers. According to the BP Postseason Odds (before Monday's games), they have about a 53% chance at making the playoffs (they were as low as 9% on July 2, as you can see here).Even on July 7, when they only had about a 15% chance of even making the playoffs, the Yankees BEST line to win the World Series was 15:1. The others, as I recall, were 12:1 and 10:1. This, if you think about it, is pretty Read more:Reasonable
NL Cy Young Update 2007-08-06 22:47:00 A few weeks ago, I looked at the NL Cy Young race. Today I'm going to do that again, using the methodology for projections that I used for my AL post on Thursday. Here are the current Cy Young Leaders, according to the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor (I don't know why, but for all the NL pitchers ESPN is using 3 for their "victory bonus"; I am not, thus the discrepancy in the standings).Penny previously had a huge lead, but the Dodgers have lost his last two starts by scores of 3-1 and 3-0. Not only has Peavy pitched brilliantly in his last two outings (14 IP, 7H, 1R, 3 BB, 18 K), the Padres have actually scored some runs for him, winning those two games by scores of 9-4 and 11-0. Because of this Penny's lead has decreased from 14.4 to 5.2.After losing to the Braves on June 1, Carlos Zambrano was 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA. In 12 starts since, Zambrano has gone 9-2 with a 1.43 ERA, with 82 strikeouts in 81.2 innings. That, coupled with the Cubs' 36-22 record over that stretch, has valuted Read more:Update
Who's Next to 300? 2007-08-05 23:51:00 In case you somehow missed it, Tom Glavine won his 300th game on Sunday night. This caused various people to talk about how Glavine might be the last 300 game winner.Now, I think some of this talk is simply shortsighted. People look at the active players with the most wins, and don't see much hope in the near future. Randy Johnson is only 16 away, but he's 43 and out for the year. After him is Mike Mussina at 245, but he's 38 and hasn't won more than 15 games since 2003. And after that it's a bunch of guys who are 40+ and still a long way away.And that's fine. It's reasonable to say that we might not have a 300 game winner in the next decade. But to say that there will NEVER be a 300 game winner again? Olney was on ESPN after the game talking about this, and said something to the effect of "Well people are so careful with pitchers now, they're more likely to go on the DL and miss time".Well, yeah, I guess that's true, but isn't this a point for there being another 300 game wi
BP Playoff Graphs 2007-08-05 15:01:00 Today I thought I'd take a look at the graphs of a few teams' playoff chances throughout the season, according to Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds.Each of these graphs begin on May 1, and are through Saturday's games. The y-axis is simply their % chance of making the playoffs on each day.Seattle Mariners On June 23 (point 1) it wasn't looking very good for the Mariners, as they were 37-33 (decent) but eight games behind the first place Angels. Then they got hot, going 17-6 over their next 23 games to get within a game of the Angels, and increase their playoff odds to almost 47% (point 2).Then things went bad, as the Mariners went on a seven game losing streak. This could have completely destroyed their playoff hopes, but at the end of the skid they were only four games back of LAA, although their % had dipped to 24% (point 3). Since then they've been solid, going 6-2, and are still very much in the race.New York YankeesA lot was made of the Yankees' early season struggles, b
Carmelo's Dunk vs Argentina Last Night 2007-08-31 14:17:00 I was watching this last night and feel the need to inlcude it here. Not great quality ; I'll replace it if something else surfaces on YouTube.Update:This is a little better quality- the dunk is about fifteen seconds in. Read more:Carmelo
, Argentina
, Night
This Week's Links (8/27-8/31) 2007-08-31 10:58:00 Best part of the whole 30-3 situation? Kurkjian.THT put out their 2007 Zone Ratings (in runs, which is the only thing I really understand so that's good).I'm a LeBatard fan, personally.Michael Kay is out of control to the point that a Fire Michael Kay blog might have to happen. This is insane:"...And when Wang pitches from the windup, his ERA is .53! That's like a high school ERA! His ERA from the stretch, though, is almost 16.00! That difference is HUGE! So Wang really has trouble pitching from the stretch."Lozo, of course, was all over it.Joe Sheehan (who is a genius) has an excellent article on Jose Reyes (subscriber only; if you're reading this and you don't subscribe to BP, you're making some questionable life decisions).Not sports related, but the Kanye album has leaked. I'm not intelligent enough to figure it out (this site has it if you register), but here's some tracks.Can't Tell Me Nothin (Remix, with Jeezy and Busta)Good Life, Champion, and Big Brother (only
Futures Watch: Week 22 (NL West Edition) 2007-08-30 08:52:00 Why the "NL West Edition
"? Because every single good line this week involves the NL West. Here we go.World Series FuturesAt both SportsBetting and Sports Interaction, the Padres are 18:1 to win the World Series. This made sense a week ago, when they had a 41% chance of making the playoffs. It does not make sense this week, as they are up to 71%.Average return on investment: 59%SportsBetting also has the Dodgers at 40:1, while they best odds they have at any other site are 25:1. Again, eight days ago, when the Dodgers were at 16%, this was a reasonable line, but today, with them up to 29% after having won 6 of 8, it is not.Average return on investment: 54%Odds to Win: DivisionThis makes no sense. At SportsBetting, the Padres are 8:5 to win the NL West. That means they would have to have a 39% chance of winning to make this a worthwhile bet. Conveniently, they are around 53%.Average return on investment: 36%Odds to Win: Wild CardAs I noted a few days ago at Epic Carnival, the Wild Card o
What Are The Odds: DiMaggio's Streak 2007-08-28 16:42:00 There have been a couple impressive streaks lately that have received national attention (Webb & Jenks), and a third (Polanco's errorless streak) that hasn't been as hyped up but is pretty incredible. None of this compares to the frenzy that would surround a player who had a hitting streak approaching 56 games. DiMaggio's record is probably the most famous streak in all of sports (above even Ripken's), and the media scrutiny on anyone who challenged it would be insane. But who's got the best chance? I crunched some numbers to find the 10 players who have the best chance of breaking the record.This amazed me: DiMaggio struck out 13 times in 621 plate appearances in 1941. That's 2.4%. Although a factor, I didn't consider strikeouts in my analysis. Here's what went into it:Hit PercentageNo, not batting average. Batting average doesn't take walks into consideration, and that's a big factor here. Walks are actually a negative in looking for someone who could put together a long hi Read more:Streak
Indians Clinch AL Central 2007-09-22 22:36:00 The Indians
clinched the AL Central
on Sunday afternoon, so I thought I'd take a look at some things you may not know about the Tribe. Also, video of the end of Sunday's win is below.In their last 12 series, the Indians are 11-0-1. They haven't lost a series since being swept by the Yankees August 10-12.Peralta's first name is, in fact, Jhonny- it was a "clerical error" on his birth certificate, and he never bothered to change it.Ryan Garko was a catcher at Stanford, drafted by the Indians in the 3rd round of the '03 draft. He is very much white, but his at-bat music is "This Is Why I'm Hot". (Related note: Albert Belle is listed under "Players who specifically requested that no music be played". Somehow this doesn't surprise me.)Lefty reliever Rafael Perez has a 1.71 ERA in 58 IP; before this year, he had pitched 12.1 innings in the majors. Lefties have hit .128/.198/.218 off him in 78 ABs.On April 19, the Indians took at 6-2 lead into the ninth against the Yankees. Clos
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