Owner: Vegas Watch URL:http://vegaswatch.blogspot.com Join Date: Tue, 28 Aug 2007 15:47:58 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: A blog focusing on baseball and college basketball, with analysis, profiles, predictions, betting tips, and more. Site statistics:Click here
Day 19: Updated Vegas Percentages 2007-10-20 22:32:00 Each remaining team's chance of winning the World Series, according to the Vegas
lines:I guessed it would be BOS 36%, COL 36%, CLE 28%. The fact that they won by ten may have contributed to the Red Sox jumping up higher than I expected. It's also possible that I was just completely wrong.Below is a graph of each team's WS% throughout the series. BOS is in red, CLE in blue. The first number is their % before G1, the second before G2, and so on.Both teams peaked at exactly 47.5%, the Sox when they were up 1-0, and the Tribe when they were up 3-1. Now we're about where were were before G1. Both teams' percentages are actually slightly lower than at the start of the series. This is because before the NLCS the NL (ARI + COL) was at 34.2%, and Colorado is now at 37.8%.So here's each team's chance of winning this series before each game:So, after 22 hours and 24 minutes of baseball*, we're pretty much right back where we started. The Red Sox were -170 to win the series when it
ALCS Primer: Game 7 2007-10-21 12:45:00 Listening to ESPN Radio last night, I heard one of the hosts (Jeff Rickard?) say that there's no way Boston loses Game Seven. I think I agree with this. The way he's thrown over his last three starts, the Indians really have no shot at beating Josh Beckett. Westbrook would have to pitch the game of his life, and I just don't see that happening. This series is over.Oh, wait, Beckett isn't pitching? Francona didn't pitch him on three days' rest, saved him for G5, and so Daisuke Matsuzaka is pitching tonight? Well, that certainly changes things.The Red Sox were 17-15 in games started by Matsuzaka during the regular season, and are 1-1 in the playoffs. After winning 8 of Matsuzka's first 10 starts, the Sox are 10-14 over his last 24.The only point I'm trying to make is that saying the Indians don't have a chance is ridiculous. The Red Sox are favored, and rightfully so. They have "momentum" on their side, are playing at home, and have a stronger offense. But with each of
2007 Vegas Watch AL RoY: Dustin Pedroia 2007-10-29 00:11:00 I figured Pedroia would win, but I had no idea he'd get almost 3/4 of the vote. Although it's a complete waste of time, the AL MVP poll is up now.Now that there are no more actual games, here is the schedule of when the actual awards are announced:November 12: AL & NL Rookie of the YearNovember 13: AL Cy YoungNovember 14: AL & NL Manager of the YearNovember 15: NL Cy YoungNovember 19: AL MVPNovember 20: NL MVPSo I'll be writing about all that as it happens, as well as free agency and such. I've got a few random things in mind for this week, while the MSM obsesses over Colts-Pats and A-Rod. And I need to get back up to speed on college basketball, which will be a main focus here between now and Opening Day 2008. Read more:Vegas
, Dustin
Mind Games 2007-10-28 22:17:00 The A-Rod news makes for a really nice banner headline on the top of SI.com's site, but "Alex Rodriguez will opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees" seems like irresponsible reporting.Look at what the article actually says (emphasis not mine):"Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras, said he sent word of the opt-out decision in writing Sunday to the Yankees and expected the club to receive it by Monday."That's some unbiased source right there. Will he opt out? Yeah, probably. Is he sending in the papers now? Maybe, although that doesn't really make sense to me- seems like he should wait until the last minute, hoping Cashman comes in with an absurd offer to take advantage of the $21MM the Rangers will be paying over the next three years if he signs an extension. But should anything Scott Boras announces publicly really change our opinion of the situation?Everything that both Boras and Cashman say is simply a negotiating ploy at this point. Of course Cashman is going to say th Read more:Games
Day 26: Updated Vegas Percentages 2007-10-28 14:40:00 It seems as though the oddsmakers have lost interest in this series too- the only series line I found is on Matchbook, where the Rockies are 26:1. At least the Holliday HR made last night's game interesting for about half an hour.Tonight the Rockies have their best shot at winning yet, with Vegas
giving them a 43.3% chance. So if they win tonight they'll be up to about 8%, then they'll have to face Beckett. If they manage to get the series back to Boston everybody will be back on the bandwagon, claiming they have the "momentum". Which really shows how silly the whole concept of momentum is when applied to baseball.Sportsbetting also has the WS MVP odds up again. Matt Holliday is 11:2 to win, which really couldn't make less sense. They Rockies have about a 1 in 30 chance of winning the series, yet one of their players is 5.5:1 to win an award that will be given to a player on the winning team.Anyway, Beckett is still the favorite at 3:2, although it seems like the odds should
This Week's Links (10/22-10/26) 2007-10-26 00:54:00 Posnanski checks in from Japan.If you're an Indians fan, do not read this (via LGT).Will Carroll on the Byrd-HGH stituation.Lozo's hysterical post about an e-mail exchange with another member of his fantasy football league.Last JoeChat of 2007? And Ozzie thinks the White Sox should bunt more, apparently.There are a lot of Wooden Award candidates.Akon was supposed to perform here at Emory last night, like 100 yards from my apartment. That didn't work out.New Jay-Z: No Hook, Blue Magic, Roc BoysLate Entry: Ufford:"I've never really put much thought into why I hate Joe Buck so much.'I hate his stupid face' is about as introspective as I get in the matter.But does a mongoose have to think about why the cobra is his enemy?"Late Entry 2: PSA to Red Sox Nation. "...that means you, Giuliani." (via AA)
Day 25: Updated Vegas Percentages 2007-10-26 00:52:00 This ignores how good Papelbon is and other factors like that, but Holliday's little miscue in the 8th decreased the Rockies' chances of winning from about 89% to 83% 17% to 11% (my fault, thanks Scott).Vegas
gives the Rockies a 42% chance of winning Game 3, with Matsuzaka vs. Fogg at Coors. If BOS wins, Colorado's chances of pulling the miracle 3-0 comeback will be about 4.3%; if COL wins, their chances of winning the series will be about 24.8%. So they're almost six times more likely to win the series if Josh Fogg can figure out a way to get some Red Sox hitters out on Saturday.
Day 24: Updated Vegas Percentages 2007-10-25 15:14:00 The Sox are even higher than I thought they would be if they won G1 (76.7%), probably because of the fashion in which they won. Vegas
has them at 65.4% to win tonight. If they win tonight, they'll be up to 88%, if they lose they fall to 61.4%.I wasn't able to watch the game2007 World Series, MLB Playoffs, Odds, Red Sox, Rockies, Vegas, World Series; since I have no particular insight on the actual game, here are the changes in the odds for the specific series outcomes:I also just noticed that SportsBetting updated the WS MVP odds. The changes were pretty predictable; Francis went from 10:1 to 45:1, and Beckett went from 5:1 to 3:2. Holliday is still 11:2, which really makes no sense; he went 0/4, and the Rockies' chances of winning the series (the only way Holliday wins the MVP) decreased by 12%.Finally, I enjoyed this sequence from the top of the fourth last night:
Let's Try This Again 2007-11-01 23:47:00 So, yesterday, the idea was to see who the readers of *this site* thought the Yankees would miss more, Torre or A-Rod. As of about 11am, that was going as planned:Then, the Colts/Pats Undefeated post got a link from SI, which seems to have had a slight effect on the poll:Since having 200+ SI.com readers vote kind of defeated the purpose of the exercise, I just put a new poll up, again starting from scratch.And, before you ask, I'm well aware that this is all an enormous waste of time. Read more:Again
This Week's Links (10/29-11/2) 2007-11-01 23:20:00 Rush the Court breaks down the first Coaches Poll of the season.Because this post clearly got overlooked: OMDQ's interview with Erin Andrews.Gammons on A-Rod's timing: "Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester are doing something Alex has never done- playing in a World Series game." Ouch.At least the Japan Series had its share of drama."HatGuy": "Fact is, the Yankees are in far greater need of a Scott Brosius, a Bernie Williams, a Paul O’Neill than an uninspired (and uninspiring) A-Rod."A more reasonable take on A-Guez.BP released the results of the Internet Baseball awards; same results as the voting here, except for NL RoY.
Futures Watch: Week 1 2007-11-01 02:42:00 According to the lines at SportsBetting, Bodog, and BetUS, the early favorites for the 2008 World Series:It's rare that the Yankees don't have the best odds before the season. They still might, but even if they do, the Red Sox have to go into '08 as the favorites, don't they? Four of the top five teams are from the AL; interesting that the Tigers are ahead of the Angels.The full list is here; the Nationals are last at 0.2%. Also, here are the best odds you can get on each team, and where. It seems like if either LA team signs A-Rod, their odds immediately become intriguing (LAD 25:1, LAA 15:1, both at BetUS). Looking down the list of potential suitors, the Tigers would be good at 15:1, but the Phillies would be even better at 25:1, with one of the best infields ever. I doubt they will change the lines immediately, so that's something worth paying attention to.Also: Adam Dunn will continue "clogging the bases" in Cincy next year; Dusty can't be happy about this [Yahoo!]
MVP Tracker: AL, 2003-2006 2007-11-01 22:58:00 About a month ago, I did a piece for The Hardball Times about a system that tries to predict who will win the MVP. I thought it might be interesting to look back at who the "MVP Tracker
" predicts to win in previous years, and compare that with what actually happened. Today, I'll look at the AL voting over the past four years.(Note: Don't directly compare the "PTS" between MVP Tracker and the actual voting; they use different scales. The thing to look at is the order, and even the size of the gaps.)2003This was A-Rod's last year with the Rangers, who finished 71-91, last in the AL West. MVP Tracker gets the top two right, but after that it's kind of a mess. Shannon Stewart, who was traded to the Twins on July 16, somehow conned his way into some votes with a VORP of 21 (This happened because the Twins went 46-23 after the trade; with Stewart hitting .322/.384/.470).Manny, Nomar, and Ortiz probably split the vote to some extent. Although Manny pretty consistently does worse tha
LA Teams Early Favorites for A-Rod 2007-11-01 02:07:00 A couple days ago Bodog posted lines on "What team will Alex Rodriguez be playing for on Opening Day '08?" I was going to dedicate a post to these, but Leitch beat me to it. Over at BP, Nate Silver had an Unfiltered post ranking all 30 teams' chances of landing A-Rod. The Bodog odds aren't even up anymore, but I thought it would be interesting to compare these two lists.So it seems like the Angels and Dodgers are clearly the frontrunners. But after that? It's pretty unclear. The is a huge disconnect between what Bodog and Silver think about the Cubs' and Yankees' chances. The Yankees' odds are always wrong, but what about Chicago? Here's Silver's reasoning:"The sale of the club is likely to take longer than expected, as there are rumors that the Tribune’s deal with Sam Zell is in question, and as they look for non-Mark Cuban suitors to compete with John Canning’s bid. They’d also have to be willing to commit to A-Rod at shortstop for at least several seasons beca Read more:Early
SportsNation Strikes Again 2007-11-01 01:16:00 I have been seriously considering dedicating a weekly post to the "Featured Comment" on ESPN.com's front page; they are consistently extremely entertaining. But this is even better.A-Rod's impact on the Yankees, 2007: .314/.422/.645, 54 homers, led the world in VORP (96.6) and WPA (7.51). Is going to win the MVP, probably unanimously. Hit .267/.353/.467 in 17 playoff PAs.Torre's impact on the Yankees, 2007: I pretty consistently disagree with his bullpen management, but that's debatable. He seems like a pretty even keel guy, which is good, I guess. He started Wang in G4 against Cleveland, which seemed reasonable enough at the time, but didn't really work out. Basically: who knows, but probably not all that dramatic one way or the other. Pretty clearly less than 96.6 runs.So why vote for Torre? Because the Yankees won the World Series in 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000. Joe Torre was involved; Alex Rodriguez was not. That is the infallible logic of 51% of "SportsNation". Please Read more:Again
, Strikes
What Are The Odds: 16-0 2007-10-30 22:40:00 As you may have heard, the Colts and Patriots are playing each other this weekend. If the Pats win, they'll move to 9-0; Indianapolis would be 8-0.Regardless of Sunday's winner, the undefeated hype will really get serious. In fact, BetUS has already posted odds on what record each team will finish with.Below are the posted odds, as well as the equivalent percentage. The % has been adjusted to take out the house advantage, so each teams' add up to 100%.Before Sunday's 52-7 win over the Redskins, the Pats were at 3.5:1 (18.2%); prior to beating the Panthers, Indy was 8.5:1 (8.8%). The fact that these lines moved pretty dramatically indicates they got a lot of action on "16-0" for each team last week.I think this may have unreasonably changed the line. WSEX has the line for either team going 16-0 at +177; the equivalent % for that is 34.7%. The Pats' and Colts' "16-0" BetUS odds add up to 38.2%. So maybe it's closer to 24% for the Pats, and 11% for Indy.The line on this week
Tigers Solve their Shortstop Problem 2007-10-30 00:04:00 Back in September, Carlos Guillen made a big fuss about how he expected to be Detroit's shortstop in 2008."'If they're going to get a shortstop, it had better be a Gold Glove,' Guillen said before the Tigers
lost 7-4 to Cleveland and moved closer to their offseason. 'I don't have a problem with first base, but if you bring in a shortstop, it has to be a really good shortstop.'"This issue came up for two reasons. First, Guillen, 32, is no longer very good defensively, although the man can hit (.320/.400/.519 in '06, .296/.357/.502 this year). Also relevant is that their 2007 first baseman, Sean Casey, slugged just .393 this year, and is now a free agent. So moving Guillen to first seemed to make a whole lot of sense, if the Tigers could just find a "really good shortstop" to replace him.Well, sometimes things just work out, as on Monday they acquired Edgar Renteria from the Braves. After struggling in '04 and '05, Renteria improved in '06, and was tremendous this year, hi Read more:Solve
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Undeserving MVPs 2007-11-06 18:34:00 Yesterday's annoucement of the Gold Glove winners got me thinking about how dumb all of these awards are. My original idea was to look at the worst MVP and Cy Young selections since 1995, but I found that there have been so many idiotic choices for MVP that I could make an entire post out of just that. Here are, as I see it, the five least deserving MVP winners of the past 12 years:5. 1998 NL MVP, Sammy Sosa over Mark McGwireSosa: .308/.377/.647, 66 HR, 158 RBI, 160 OPS+, 68.3 VORPMcGwire: .299/.470/.752, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 216 OPS+, 104.3 VORPIf you're trying to win an MVP that you don't deserve, there are two important things to do: drive in more runs than your competition, and walk a lot less. The voters pay pretty much no attention to walks now, and I would imagine it was even worse nine years ago. Sosa had a slightly higher BA, but walked in 11% of his PAs, compared to McGwire's 24%. The voting wasn't even close, with Sosa taking 30 of the 32 first place votes. The reason for t
2007 Gold Gloves Announced 2007-11-06 15:08:00 I had completely forgotten about this, but they just announced this year's Gold Glove winners on ESPNews.C: Ivan Rodriguez, Russ Martin1B: Kevin Youkilis, Derrek Lee2B: Placido Polanco, Orlando HudsonSS: Orlando Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins3B: Adrian Beltre, David WrightOF: Carlos Beltran, Jeff Francoeur, Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones, Grady Sizemore, Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki(Apparently there was a tie, which is why there are four NL outfielders.)Initial reactions:No Jeter!The idea that Jimmy Rollins is a better fielder than Troy Tulowitzki is hilarious to me.Grady does not deserve this award, but that's OK.Keith Law was on right after the announcement, and said he thought Tulo should have won, and also Austins Kearns would have been a better choice than Rowand. He added that Granderson and Coco were both clearly more deserving than Sizemore. Fair enough.More later- I want to compare these to the Fielding Bible awards, and see how much being a good hitter helps. But I'm gonna need to f Read more:Gloves
Making Sense Of Contradicting Lines 2007-11-05 22:37:00 Last week, Results Disoriented's "j holz" had a very interesting post about the discrepancy between the Red Sox-Rockies series line, and the individual World Series game lines. I'll let him elaborate: "Indeed, the Series line closed at a market price of roughly Rockies+210/Red Sox -210. For those of you not familiar with money lines, that meansthe Rockies are expected to win the World Series 100 / (210 + 100) = 32.3% ofthe time."Given these individual game percentages, we can calculate the chances ofthe Rockies winning the Series--using the same method I did to come up with my pre-WS estimate. It comes to...24.9%."He goes into much more detail in his post, but that's the basic idea. There are two theoretical reasons that cause this discrepancy. One is that individual game lines attract both more action, and more intelligent action. "Homers" who just bet on the team they're rooting for, make up a decent portion of the action on the World Series line. The second, and probably mor Read more:Sense
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2007 Vegas Watch AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez 2007-11-05 14:15:00 People just like being different, I guess. A-Rod actually got a lower percentage of votes than Pedroia did for AL RoY, which is kind of weird.Anyway, this concludes the awards voting here. To summarize:AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
, 71%NL MVP: Matt Holliday, 41%AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, 64%NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, 61%AL RoY: Dustin Pedroia, 73%NL RoY: Troy Tulowitzki, 60%Both RoY awards are announced next Monday. My guesses on the winners of each of the eight major awards: Hurdle, Wedge, Braun, Pedroia, Peavy, Sabathia, Rollins, Rodriguez. Braun is a complete guess; that one could go either way. I'm also not that confident in the Rollins prediction, as that could to go Holliday. Beyond that, I think the winners are fairly clear, although I have a bad feeling that Beckett is going to somehow edge out Sabathia.In other news, college basketball starts tonight (kind of). Ten ESPN guys made Final Four picks. So that's 40 teams total; somehow there are only eight different teams included Read more:Vegas
New England's Unprecedented Run 2007-11-04 21:12:00 The Pats may have won on Sunday to keep their hopes of an undefeated season alive, but their more impressive streak ended. In the first eight weeks of the season, New England
was favored by an average of 11 points, ranging from 5 to 16.5. They covered each of these spreads, by an average of 14.5 points (adding those two together, their average margin of victory was an astounding 25.5 points). Against the Colts, they were favored by between 4.5 and 6.5 points at various sites, and only won by four, ending their streak.So they're now 9-0, and 8-1 against the spread. From 2000-2006, nine teams won at least eight of their first nine games. Here's how the did against the spread, and how they did the rest of the season.The '03 Chiefs are the only team that got off to a similar start, and they finished relatively poorly. But these really aren't comparable situations; if you look at that team, they weren't favored by more than 10 points in any of their first nine games. The Steelers did v Read more:New England
Early Super Bowl Line 2007-11-04 00:04:00 It was just pointed out to me that over at Bodog, they have posted the "EarlySuper
Bowl XLII Line" at AFC -16.5. At first I thought this had to be a mistake. But apparently that's the consensus, both at Bodog and SportsBetting.I guess people think the Pats are just that good. I also was very surprised to see them favored by between 5 and 6.5 points at various sites against the Colts this weekend in Indianapolis. This doesn't necessarily mean that the linesmakers think the Pats are 8-9.5 points better than the 2nd best team in the NFL; it just means that they know they'll get pretty equal action on both sides, because the general public think the Pats are that good. And they were right- the Pats have gotten the majority of the action at -5.I'm already looking forward to New England's Week 16 matchup against the Dolphins, in Foxboro. The Pats were favored by 17.5 points against the Redskins last week, so it's going to be significantly higher than that. How high depends on
A Better Option? 2007-11-09 21:54:00 Over the last few days, there has been some talk about how trading for Miguel Cabrera is a much better option than signing Alex Rodriguez. Here's one example, from FanHouse:"Yes, A-Rod will outproduce Cabrera in the short-term, but will he outproduce him by $20 million a year? Not a chance. And whatever organizational depth a team loses by trading all their prospects to acquire Cabrera can be made up in time by pouring at least some of the difference in salary into scouting and the draft."That $20MM number isn't a very realistic way to look at this situation. 2008 will be Cabrera's second arbitration year (he made $7.4 MM in '07); he's probably going to get $10-$12MM this year, and somewhere around $15 MM in '09. So, yes, that's a lot less than A-Rod.But that's only for two years. After that, he's a free agent. Cabrera's next contract, whether he signs an extension in the near future, of hits the open market two years from now, is going to be quite large. Probably not A
This Week's Links (11/5-11/9) 2007-11-09 11:07:00 The Dugout wraps up the '07 season.Sheehan plays "Fact or Fluke" for some guys whose performances ran against expectations this year.Kentucky loses to Gardner-Webb; they were 25.5 point favorites.Sabathia wins the SB Nation Cy Young; the actual award will be announced on Tuesday.Pomeroy looks at the best teams from the "other" conferences.The Top 50 free agents, and a prediction on where each will end up.Posnanski is comparing the Fielding Bible and Gold Glove award winners at each position; here's 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B.Sorry things have been so slow around here the last couple days. My computer had some horrible virus, and I had to restore it to factory settings, which was fun. Next week they start announcing these stupid awards, and there's actually college basketball on TV (NM St.-Duke, Ohio St.-Wisc-GB and Youngstown St.-UCLA on Monday, and then Davidson-UNC on Wednesday).Late entry: "EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY -- The Bounty On Bill Simmons' Hands Has Been Set at $20 "
Updated Undefeated Odds 2007-11-06 19:26:00 Last week, the Pats were 2:1 to go undefeated at BetUS.com. Since their win on Sunday, various other sites have put up odds on them going 16-0, although BetUS is still the only site with odds on their exact record. They have 13-3 at 1.2:1, which I'm pretty sure is a mistake, so I took the liberty of changing that.Two weeks ago they were 3.5:1 (18%). Before the Colts game they were 2~1 (26%), and now they're 1:1 (40%).SportsBetting's line (+120) puts them at 43% while VIP has it at +115 (44%). Matchbook's line is less optimistic, +140 (41%). Regardless, it seems like they've got a little better than a 2 in 5 chance of winning out.Meanwhile, the Rams and Dolphins remain winless, so of course there are odds on them going 0-16. BetUS has Miami at 6:1, and the Rams at 10:1. They also have a prop "NE Suffer[s] 1st Loss To Miami", although they don't have a line posted for it, unfortunately. SportsBetting has the Dolphins not winning a game at 8:1, St. Louis at 12:1. So it look Read more:Undefeated
More on Gold Gloves 2007-11-06 18:34:00 So the Gold Gloves
winners were announced yesterday. The Fielding Bible awards have also been announced; the full results are here. I thought I'd look at how biased the Gold Gloves are towards guys who are good offensively. Here is the average line for this year's GG winners:.296 BA, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 114 OPS+Only one guy with a BA of under .276 won, and that was Andruw Jones; I think we can consider him an exception, as he has 368 career HR. Only three winners (Polanco, Cabrera, Suzuki) had less fewer than 10 HR, and those guys all hit over .300. There were zero winners that were below average hitters this year, as well as in their career (according to OPS+).Let's contrast those numbers with the average line of the Fielding Bible Award winners:.279 BA, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 104 OPS+Seven winners had BAs under .276, and five hit fewer than 10 homers (John McDonald had 1 HR). Only one of those under 10 HR guys hit over .300 (Ichiro). And five winners have OPS+s of under 100 for both 2007 and t
This Week's Links (11/12-11/16) 2007-11-16 00:25:00 The Colts' radio announcer was a little confused about the result of Vinatieri's kick.Posnanski looks at some more undeserving MVPs.Keith Law, ESPN.com's "voice of reason", talks to Sabernomics.Like we needed another reason to dislike the '72 Dolphins.The Dugout is excited about Tampa Bay's name change.Apparently, 3 years $45MM isn't enough for Mariano. Unbelievable. I enjoyed this:"Rivera has apparently told his agents to shop him around, as he's annoyed by Hank Steinbrenner's public comments about his age. Hank seems to make a lot of public comments that don't seem professional or well thought-out. "Leitch:"[W]e're not too comfortable living in a world in which fish can grow to 359 pounds. Heck, that thing could pitch for the Indians at this rate."Storming the Floor collected the Final Four picks of 28 bloggers (including myself; Indiana, Memphis, Tennessee, UCLA). Starting next week I'll also be participating in the blogpoll, which should be fun.
College Basketball Conference Odds 2007-11-15 23:42:00 As the college basketball season has gotten underway, I thought this would be a good time to look at the odds for each of the six BCS conferences. I have included the odds from three sites; Bodog, BetUS, and The Greek. As I write this, the Bodog odds have actually been taken down (possibly just temporarily), but they're a good point of reference regardless.The next column is the % chance Vegas thinks each team has of winning their conference, derived from the odds. And the final column is the team's line for winning it all (from SportsBetting); I thought that would be useful to compare with the conference %.Please note that these are to win the regular season conference title. If there's a tie, the team that gets the top seed in the conference tournament is the winner.ACCWow, Duke is overrated. 20:1 to win it all...with what post presence? Beyond that, all of these seem about right to me- I guess NC State at 8:1 is probably pretty solid. NC St @ Mich. St. on November 28 shoul Read more:College
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Peavy Wins Unanimously 2007-11-15 16:31:00 I half-expected Kevin Sherrington to leave Peavy off his ballot because of "park factors". Webb was almost unanimously second.Aaron Harang: 16-6, 3.73 ERA, 125 ERA+, 231.2 IP, 28 HR, 52 BB, 218 KBrandon Webb: 18-10, 3.01 ERA, 156 ERA+, 236.1 IP, 12 HR, 72 BB, 194 KHarang was as popular pick in the voting here as well. I don't get it. ESPN.com's featured comment chimes in:...?Oh, and Bonds got indicted.
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