Owner: The Denarii Trader URL:http://trader-denarii.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Sun, 05 Aug 2007 15:56:30 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: A day traders journal on how he is trying to learn to make a living from the markets Site statistics:Click here
Monday Morning Thought 8/6/2007 2007-08-06 07:00:00 This stuff on the Boob Tube drives me crazy. You are beginning to see more and more people state we are in a pattern where we sell off late in the week and than bounce on Monday
and Tuesday. When too many people see the same pattern, then that is when the most of them will get hurt.-The stats do tell us that the majority of time when the Trin closes over 3.o on NYSE, we gap higher and close higher by more than 1.2%. A wonderful service that provides tons of stats like this is SentimenTrader.com. So this means two things, either we close lower today or well below the open or we rally the entire week and not sell off on Friday.-The other item of craziness in CNBC getting all excited about Crude at 80. We have had a good pull back in the oil market and the COT numbers show the commercial are super short Crude and they are the smart money. I think it is stupid to go against the smart money. Read more:Morning
, Monday Morning
Frig Guy 8/11/2007 2007-08-11 11:11:00 The Frig Guy came and put a band aid on it. He states he has given it a new life for 6 to 18 months more. Got to go to Sears. They have these things on sale today.
Wild Friday 8/10/2007 2007-08-11 09:39:00 I do not know what to blame or say but my brain had too many problems keeping up with the action on Friday
. I do not know if it me trying to finish some things up at work, or the stupid broken frig or my allergy shots. It just was not working for me.-Even with the craziness in the market, my goal next week is to stay in trades either till the stop is hit, the profit point is hit(or the market gives my a reason to take a profit) or end of day. I need so badly to do two things - make more trades and sit on my hands. I am not going to get anywhere as a trader if I don't do those.-The numbers:Stocks: noneStock Futures: Gross -10 Net -19 contracts traded 4Forex: none
Friday Morning Though 8/10/2007 2007-08-10 07:05:00 "Day of Judgement, God is callinggggggg" War Pigs by Black Sabbath-Crazy day. This really random thoughts. I noticed most of the fast food restaurants raised prices across the broad during the last few weeks. I was a dummy trying to figure out why. "Are they all working together?". Does there need to be an investigation? DUH - even thou very few people in this area work at the minimum wage - it went up at the end of July.-CNBC is showing clips from "300", "God Father" and "Rocky". What a combination!-I was cleaning out my desk yesterday and came across an article from mid 1999. I showed a chart of the top 50 internet companies for the next decade. Out of the 50, only 10 are still trading (guess - CSCO, AOL, YHOO, AMZN, EBAY - etc). Some were bought out but they is amazing.-CNBC is so funny. The futures have stabilized. Yes, I agree after looking at the charts. They have not gone down that much in the last 10 minutes. Give me a break!-Blood is the Streets. You got it love it. Read more:Friday
, Morning
Damn Frig - 8/9/2007 2007-08-09 20:56:00 This is not that long of post. The Denarii household is a little crazy right now. The Frig went out this afternoon and spent the last hour or so cleaning up and moving food to my wife's sister place. The repair man can't come until Saturday morning too and I have one hell of a headache.-Did not trade much today. In fact, I hardly watched the market. I was busy with work. I did make a little on scalping a steel stock. I had left the market were Nasdaq was plus for the day and the Dow looked like it was roaring back. Next I looked it was down 250 then way after the close - down 387. Amazing. Thank god my trading account is 100% cash and my retirement funds are about 50% cash.-The numbers:Stocks: Gross +110 Net +105 shares traded 1000Stock Futures: noneForex: none-Later - I got to figure out food for the next couple of days.
Thursday Morning Thought 8/9/2007 2007-08-09 07:32:00 The markets are wild. I guess some hedge funds are having problems in Europe. The EURO is getting hit along with their markets. CNBC is crowing that this is no big deal. A bunch of rich people lose a lot of money being to greedy - just focus on the fundamentals. Funny. The futures are really bouncing around. If this market closes higher, the low should be in. Read more:Morning
, Thursday
Ouch 8/8/2007 2007-08-08 20:46:00 What can I say? I was a bloodied today. I shorted the ER2 at 790 and had a stop above the first high. Looking at it and market in hindsight, it was not a good trade. I walked into a buzz saw of bulliness.Why did I get into the trade? Look at this chart. For a couple of days, the 790 area played a major role in the ups and down of the market. I was assuming it was a good place to pause and the other futures were not as strong.-Ouch - but thinking about it, I was going to stay in a trade come hell or high water until I made money or hit my stop. This trade needed a lot of room so I gave it. In a weird way, I feel good about this because I held it for so long. One of my major problems as a trader right now. It also pointed out to myself that I missed a couple of good long stock trades. Those trades would have made up for the loss in the futures. The lesson learned is I can't stay focused on just one thing at a time.-The numbers:Stocks: noneStock Futures: Gross -800 Net -805 c
Tuesday Morning Thoughts 8/14/2007 2007-08-14 07:38:00 The PPI came out and there is not much reaction. The GBP/USD is getting killed this morning - below the 2.00 level for the first time in 3 months. The COT report is showing to me a possible turn in the USD/CAD. I would hope for one more shot at the 1.04 area to get long.-The stock indexes are in no mans land and volume was slow yesterday compared to the recent 3 weeks. A lot of traders complained of the volume levels but we are just back to the level they were in early July.-I am not excited about anything I see this morning. Read more:Tuesday
, Morning
Stress 8/13/2007 2007-08-13 20:16:00 I find it amazing when I tell someone that I day trade stocks. They nearly every time say "that is too stressful". I ask them if their job is stressful and they say yes. That stress to me is harder to take.-Jobs that I have had in the past, I have worked 80, 90, 100 hour weeks. I have on a couple of occasions worked 3 days in a row with out sleep. I have flown to a foreign country overnight and give a presentation with out sleep. I have given presentations in a country at war. I have worked on client sites where VPs have been telling how stupid I am. I have worked on Xmas, Thanksgiving, and all the other holidays.-I have worked so much and eaten so much take out food, the food firms would send me the latest menus. I worked once on Xmas when my daughter was visiting and at the age of 20 she came down to my basement office at 9:30 PM and ask "When are we going to open our F-ing presents".-I have lived where the first thing I did each day was read email and the last thing I did was read e
Boring 8/13/2007 2007-08-13 09:26:00 I was all pumped to do some trading. I felt more awake today and we get paint drying. Made one trade so far and I can go to Mcd's tonight. Fun.
Monday Morning Thoughts 8/13/2007 2007-08-13 07:26:00 I heard so much noise about the VIX and how high it has gotten. Give me a break. In the mid-90's it got down to the range of 10-15 for a while but spent most of the late 90's thru 2002 in a range of 20 to 30. That is where we are right now and we had some really good trading markets back then. We were there in the late 80's and early 90's too. Read more:Morning
, Monday
, Monday Morning
Barrons VS The Big Mouth 8/18/2007 2007-08-18 11:56:00 I figured sooner or later Barrons would pick on him. It is frustrating recently that a lot of his picks have not had the same pop in post/pre-market as they once did. I am hoping he and his picks become lively again in September. The summer is not a good time to pick on his picks.-I have written down all his major picks over the last year and a half. The results I believe I could get if I shorted them based on my own rules are as follows:January 2006 +4,000February 2006 + 17,650March 2006 + 16,000April 2006 +11,000May 2006 +7750June 2006 +7000July 2006 +1750August 2006 +4750September 2006 +5750October 2006 +1000November 2006 +5000December 2006 +3750January 2007 +5000February 2007 +7000March 2007 +7250April 2007 +6250May 2007 +7250June 2007 +4750July 2007 +2000August 2007 +750 so far.-Some of the rules I use is he has to move it in the post-market during the show. I do not use any of the call in picks. Only his main ones hi-lighted. The stock must have shares to
Very confused and Frustrated 8/17/2007 2007-08-18 08:18:00 Very confused
right now. This blog is where I mainly talk about my day trading but the over all market seem to be at a major cross road. MY 401k is 100 percent invested and has gotten hit pretty good. I have an rollover IRA that has been in about 70 percent cash most of the year except when I try swing trading it. I took one big stupid lose there or I would be feeling ok about it.-The question - where do we go from here? So many of the indicators that I follow are telling me that this is either a major bottom to buy hand over fist or if it does not hold, then we are in for a very bear market. Each day will be a wait and see where the indicators go. If as we rally over the next couple of days, the indicators fall quickly then the best I think we can hope for is a retest of the highs then a retest of the lows. If the indicators do not fall as we go higher, then this could be a great bottom. If we don't rally and the indicators fall, god help us.-However this works not, this is t Read more:Frustrated
Crap Again Friday Morning Thoughts 8/17/2008 2007-08-17 07:28:00 I hate having to sleep. I have seen so many times that about 7 AM EST there seems to be a reflection point in the markets. Many times there can be a low of a high on the charts that you can play off of until the markets in the US opens at 9:30. Today there was another one in the YM futures. It would be a buy at 12800 today.-Guess what happen? The Fed cuts the discount rate. The YM futures go from 12850 to 13250, a move of 400 points in 15 seconds. Amazing. The shorts are getting killed.-Later. Read more:Again
, Friday
, Morning
Sucked 8/16/2007 2007-08-16 20:40:00 A big ass rally like this and I had my head up my - you know where. Unfortunately, I gave up too soon and had lunch and work on my plate instead. There is a lot I have to learn about this market. I am going to keep this short. I went to a county fair tonight so I am hot, sweating and itchy from all the farm animals. I need a shower.-I shorted the morning rally and got killed then I put an order for some QLD way out of the market thinking maybe late today it would get hit. I got filled early afternoon while I was doing some work. By the time I figured out I had filled, the market had already gone so much lower and higher so I closed the trade with a little profit. Dummy me.-The numbers:Stocks: noneStock Futures: Gross -520 Net -529 contracts 4Forex: none
Thursday Morning Comments 8/16/2007 2007-08-16 07:34:00 They are beginning to lose it on CNBC. One commentator stated "the markets are like 100 Ralph Kramdens trying to all fit thru the same mouse hole". Rick and Steve are starting to get pissy with each other. We look like we put in a temporary bottom about 7:30 this morning when the Fed was going into the market. The arguments are why the Fed funds rate is lower than the target rate. One is arguing that it is technical issues. The other is stating that the Fed is doing a temporary ease thru the markets. We have already rallied 75 points off the bottom in the YMs. Read more:Morning
, Thursday
, Comments
Ying and Yang 8/15/2007 2007-08-15 18:55:00 Yinging and Yanging. My thought process during corrections goes like this. One leg down then bounce. Followed by a retest. The retest should take out the low by a little and then we buy. If it starts being more than that, I look for a move going about 1.6 times the first leg down. Then a rebound equaling the first move up, finishing with another leg the size of the first leg down. My version of the wave analysis. If this is going to be a simple correction, in my books the market needs to find its low 2-3 percent lower or we are in for a bigger 5 wave decline.-Again the after hours futures look bad.-The numbers:Stocks: Gross +35 net +32 shared traded 1000Stock futures: noneForex: none
Wednesday Morning Thoughs 8/15/2007 2007-08-15 07:15:00 My head hurts - really. I play a lot of racket ball. On Monday night, I was playing doubles and one person on the other team is not real good at knowing where others are. I took an overhead kill shot in the back of the head at full speed. It really dazed me. My head buzzed for a couple of hours. Now I have had a couple of days of headaches. A real PITA.-Markets are down. The dollar is strong and everyone is waiting for the CPI.-CNBC is stating the billionaires are buying banks. I guess that is where the money is at. Read more:Morning
, Wednesday
Stupid, Plain and Simple 8/14/2008 2007-08-14 20:47:00 Below are a bunch of examples where I just did not pull the trigger. Recently, I have had one problem after another finding trades. Today, the trading Gods gave me a bunch and that they were all my ideas too. What did I do? I sat on my f-ing hands. Usually I pull the trigger on one of three trades I see. Today - none. I do not understand my head right now.Examples 1 & 2 - it looked like to me the markets may have a brief moment in the sun today and then go down. The YM futures looked like the perfect one to short using the morning high as a stop. The later, I heard the news about the MM fund and thought - sell them. Again a nice move in the right direction.Example 3 - AGU just looked like it wanted to roll over with the market. My thought process was right on target.Example 4- Same crap different stock. Another one looking to fall after both had nice bounce trades from their lows. Right again.Examples 5, 6, 7 - ouch ouch ouch . My favorite long. It would have been hard to break eve Read more:Stupid
, Plain
, Simple
Tuesday Trade Review 2007-08-21 15:31:00 This is my big MISSED TRADE of DAY. I get so pissed off at myself. I saw the first signal a minute late. The bid/ask was 32.00/32.04. I put in an order at 32.02. At that moment it moved to 32.02/32.05 so I moved to 32.04 and then it raced off with out me. I missed the second entry the same way. In fact I missed a lot of entries today and to my frustration, many of them would have been good.This is just messy trading by me. I chased this one when the stock was already 15 cents above my entry point. My stop was too close. This was my bonehead play of the day. I pick a stock up at the right time. As soon as it looked like it was moving fast, I moved my stop up too fast and got hit and lost out on a big opportunity. I forgot to put my points on this stock. I entered CROX about 1:37 at 58.26 after a big seller on 58.25 was taken out. A few minutes later, it popped up and I move my stop to BE where i has taken out just before 2 o'clock.-This was a frustrating day that I really bea Read more:Tuesday
, Trade
Tuesday Morning Thoughts 8/21/2007 2007-08-21 07:04:00 The early bird gets the worm???-This is frustrating. I have mention before that there seems to be a good turning point in the markets around 7 am EST give or take about 30 minutes. Today's move started at 6:40 and the dow futures "YM" ran 100 points or $500. So many times a test of a high or low is done at this time and the futures ran a bunch of points. Maybe I am nuts, but it would seem if I gave up about 30-45 minutes of sleep, I could pick off a good trade once and a while. The 13100 zone was the place to be this morning. Read more:Tuesday
, Morning
Monday Trade Review 8/20/2007 2007-08-20 21:05:00 Good short term setup, bad trade idea. COH was talked about in the DEH. When I brought up the chart, I jumped in thinking it was a good long but if you look at the daily chart, it was a good short. I got out making a couple of pennies playing the wrong side. Then the stock collapsed turning out to being a great short.My favorite steel and it had given me a short term buy signal. It turned out to be false and I got out before getting hurt. The little scalp trades in the steels, I give little time to work. The stupid thing is during the base I have 3 buy signals and did not get long. The stock then ran 75 cents with out me.This is the type of trade that really pisses me off. I buy the breakout and the stock starts to run. Thinking I had a good winner, I place a stop to make sure I have some profits. The stock has a 1 minute pull back hitting my stop before running off again. Another breakout play - the type of trade I do not like doing often. Again I buy the BO and it starts to Read more:Trade
, Monday
The first Day of the rest of my Life 8/20/2007 2007-08-20 14:35:00 I did a little trading today. Missed way too many easy opportunities. But this day is different for me. This day is a day long coming. Today is the day that life has allowed me to try day trading full time. I am taking a 3 week vacation were half of it, I will be trading. After that vacation ends, I start a Family Leave from work. I am taking this to give me the flexibility to do somethings for my parents and watch over my own health. I hope when I am not doing either, I will have time to trade the markets full time. Mentally this means a lot for me because at any given moment, I had to respond to work either with emails, phone call and/or customers. I need a break from that.-Today my trading was no big deal. I just tried to play around with a few things and just get a feel for my new freedom. I hopefully figure out more things to post about and be able to make this site more useful for myself and anyone how reads it.-Numbers:Stocks: gross +80 net + 70 shares traded 1800
Monday Mornign Thoughts 8/20/2007 2007-08-20 07:38:00 The world survived another weekend. The Asia markets had big days last night and Europe is doing fine. The futures are bouncing back and forth. The one things that sticks was TMA was up 2.5 points and then in the matter of minutes, it was down a point and half. It has only traded 300k shares so off.-I am waiting to hear what type of response the Big Mouth gives Barrons article.-Other than that, my wife is debating what colors to paint the inside of the house. I know nothing about paint colors - painful.-With the markets, I am looking for a test of the 50 to 62% retracement points of the recent decline before we work lower again. Read more:Monday
A Strange Week for Me 8/25/2007 2007-08-25 09:57:00 If you have been reading my blog, this is the end of my first week of full time trading. For the most part, I am a daytrader but I will make swing trades in my retirement accounts and try longer term Forex trades. I don't know what I should have expected this week. It is funny to me. After waiting so many years to try this dream out, anything less than fireworks seemed disappointing. I wanted to do things slow and try figuring out the best way to use my time. When to blog, when to eat, what to eat, when to exercise and when to do my research. This is all new to me. I want to push myself to watch every tick from 7 AM to 4PM est and trade like mad but I know this would be the road to ruin. I know I have a lot still to learn about the markets but what I do know should provide my with a living. I only need to first conquer my fears. The mechanics and the chart reading I know. The other big thing is how to deal with the times there are not much happening in the markets. Also as I said befo Read more:Strange
Friday Trade Review 8/24/2007 2007-08-24 14:34:00 This was a big month trade. It popped up nearly two points in after hours last night and the same in premarket. I was hoping to get short around 32.00 when it popped just before the open. I could only get 200 shares off. After the open and the stock falling below 32.00, I moved my stop to 32.15 to lock in some profits and two seconds later, I was stopped. I should have been selling more there.The second trade here is were I saw the chemicals beginning to move so you buy one of the laggards. I got out too fast. Crap.-The numbers:Stocks: Gross + 102 net +95 shares traded 1400Stock futures: noneForex: none Read more:Friday
, Trade
Friday Morning Thoughts 8/24/2007 2007-08-24 07:49:00 I am so tired. This was my first week doing this trading thing full time. I think I made a couple of happy meals so far. The frustrating thing about this is seeing so many opportunities and not taking them, not trusting, not trusting myself. I feel very disorganized and that is my goal over the next week or so to figure out the best way to look at things. I need to make this work.-The markets have flat lined over night. Read more:Friday
, Morning
Thursday Trade Review 8/23/2007 2007-08-23 15:03:00 Only trade of the day and it was a bonehead move. Again I was pushing the stop along too quickly and got me stopped out way too fast. Missed a bunch of trades too. I am trading very light until September and being very picky about my entries. I also am trading 1/4 to 1/2 sizes too. I am trying to get use to doing this all day long too. I did not help today that I had a doctors appointment and lunch have my wife. She misses me during the day as were we use to eat lunch together nearly everyday.-This is just a whole new life to get adjusted to. There has been so many for me this year.-The numbers:Stocks: Gross +32 net +30 shared traded 400Stock Futures: none - I pull a trade just before the system went down on the YMs today. Saw Black Swan written all over it.Forex: none Read more:Trade
, Thursday
Thursday Morning Thoughts 8/23/2007 2007-08-23 07:04:00 CNBC was doing a lot of talking about on the study on Seniors having sex and they are not using Viagra yet. I know who is using Viagra too much. It is the market. Go look at the daily charts of the major indexes. We have been flying off the bottom like using too much...... You get the picture. And anything that uses too much of that stuff - well it hurts. I am hoping the market ripes a couple more days and gets in the 13500-13700 range on the Dow. At that point, I will unload some of my dogs who have not bounced and go long the Dow short fund SDS as a hedge in September. I was too greedy to do it this summer and now I am paying for it. Read more:Morning
, Thursday
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