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A new approach to measure market sentiment.
2007-08-02 13:21:26
Sentiment measures market opinion in one of several ways. One way is by polling market players–traders, investors, advisors–as to how they “see” the market. Are they bullish or bearish? Another way to measure sentiment is by looking at what market players are actually doing. One popular measure is the daily ratio of the volume (or open interest) of stock or index put and call options. Inherent in most sentiment analysis is the notion that the majority is almost always wrong, hence sentiment is normally viewed through contrary opinion glasses. The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll is a survey of the web’s most prominent investment bloggers, asking “What is your outlook on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days?” I have always found Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll a good contrary indicator!. Recently i stumbled upon blogscope.net.It is currently tracking over 10.95 million blogs with 87.85 million posts. BlogScope can assist the user in disc


Index that can tell a story
2007-08-01 11:56:05
$nylow=NYSE - New Low $nyhgh=NYSE - New Highs  $naud=NYSE Advance-Decline Volume $nadec=Nasdaq - Issues Declining $amhl=AMEX New Highs-New Lows $nyk=Financial Index - NYSE $nalow=Nasdaq - New Lows $bpfina=S&P Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index A kindergarden grade in chart analysis show you which way the market is headed.
Read more: story

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meetings of BOJ
2007-07-31 07:30:04
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/seisaku/mpm_unei/giji/index.htm This link will take you to the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meetings of bank of japan. You can download the pdf files. The pdf files are a good read (a must read) on the current world financial scenario and the current economic and financial condition of USA . For the meeting on jan17-18 the minutes will be published on feb 26 likewise for other meeting also. Does the bullish and bearish tone of the Minutes on liquidity (carry trade) have a bearing on Dow???. from  feb 26 when the Minutes are published to the next publication of march 26 DOW index has lost -167 points. feb 26 tone is bearish with BOJ increasing rate by .25 on feb 20 meeting.  From march 26 minutes to may 7 minutes DOW  has gained +784 points. Tone bullish. From may 7 minutes to may 22 minutes DOW has gained +278. Tone bullish From may 22 minutes to june 20 minutes DOW gained +92 .tone is neutral. From june 20 to july 18 minutes DOW has gained +319. T


54 and 108 sma
2007-07-29 13:54:29
I first commented on my favorite 54 and 108 Simple Moving Average on June 11 and 13 th.The above chart of Dow cross Yen index shows that the chart is having a good support at 108 sma after gaping down from support at 54 sma.


No comments!
2007-07-28 07:58:30
In 1968, George Lindsay, a master technical analyst, found a repetitive chart pattern that he had specifically found at the end of long sustained bull markets. He called his pattern “Three Peaks and a Domed House”.Here the weekly chart of dow is given along with the classic pattern  of George Lindsay.The two chart pattern show striking similarity.While i am not an expert in this pattern the readers may dig for more research.



2007-07-27 11:04:50
$xbd is my best indicator for the general health of the market since the market is fuelled by liquidity from word currency funds.before the feb 27 selloff $ xbd had a big decline and for this decline also $xbd showed indications . The chart shows the amazing similarity between the two events as shown in the charts. Hope this similarity holds for the coming days also…The second  charts shows the level the  broker index has reached vs Dow. Technically $xbd is stable


The underlying reason behind the selloff
2007-07-27 09:22:59
  New Zealand dollar is one the important pair in carry trade.On July 26 the news hit the wire that RBNZ raised the OCR to 8.25% from 8.0%. . In the statement, the bank noted that “…we think the four successive OCR increases we have delivered will be sufficient to contain inflation”.  A 7.75% differential exists between New Zealand and Japan and a full 3% difference with the US overnight rates,which should make NZD attractive for carry trade and selling of US bonds to divert to NZD is a strong possibility. The New Zealand dollar rose 22.1 percent against the US dollar in the year to June and has hit record levels since the local currency was freely floated in 1985. Last month, New Zealand made news worldwide when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand intervened in the foreign-exchange market to sell the New Zealand dollar. Confronted by rising pressure from the strong kiwi dollar, the central bank decided on June 11 to stage its first foreign-exchange intervention s
Read more: underlying , behind

Outlook
2007-07-02 08:25:50
NZD/USD has shoot upwards to 0.780 which is negative news for Dow.Bank of America Corp strategist has raised their  forecast for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index which is postive news for Dow. Dow will shoot up to +100 level and by 2pm expect it to fall with a thud.
Read more: Outlook

Garyshilling
2007-06-29 08:38:20
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose less than forecast in May and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge has cooled down. Dow should shoot up up +135 level up to 2PM .After that one can expect wide swings with bulls and bear in battle with NZD camp winning at close. I would like to introduce Mr Gary shilling. I am printing his outlook for the year. Eight of them are likely to unfold this year while four will probably work but maybe not until later: 1. The housing bubble will burst. If so, 2. The Fed will ease; meanwhile, the yield curve will remain inverted 3. U.S. stock prices will fall, perhaps below the 2002 lows, in the midst of a major recession 4. China will suffer a hard landing due to domestic cooling measures and U.S. recession 5. Weakness in U.S. and China will spread globally, dragging down economies and stocks universally 6. Treasury bonds will rally 7. The dollar will rally, but not before the recession is global 8. Commodity prices will nosedive 9. Maybe


Outlook
2007-06-29 03:44:41
Today NZDUSD is shooting up.It has reached a high of .774.The neagative correlation shown for NZD and DOW does not bring cheer on the face. untill recently USD/JPY was the trade that everyone wanted to be in. While the Federal Reserve, struggling to control inflation, increased the price of money sixteen consecutive times, the Bank of Japan was fighting deflation by holding interest rates near zero. Consequently during 2006, the interest rate differential between US and Japan made long USD/JPY a one way bet. .  Even though the US dollar still has a positive interest rate differential against the Japanese yen, interest rate expectations are visibly favoring the Japanese yen, what makes the USD/JPY a bad carry trade for 2007.  .  Many traders are  currently hunting high yielding currencies like the Aussie and the kiwi at the cost of the US dollar.  Since the beginning of March, both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have surged over against the US dollar, . Australia’s t
Read more: Outlook

George Lindsay three peaks pattern
2007-08-05 12:44:15
I did some research on lindsay ’s three peak and doomed house pattern. “The Three Peaks and a Domed House patterns may occur on either a major or a minor scale. When it is of a major scope, a typical formation begins at a bear market low. The patterns which start in the latter part of a major bull market do not normally last as long as those that begin at a bear market low, and they are often less symmetrical. – Georg Lindsay , Developer of the Three Peaks and a Domed House “ I have  found that this pattern is fractal and can appear on multiple timeframes . I have seen this pattern form on hourly charts, daily charts ,weekly and even monthly charts.In forex charts this pattern is very prevalent.  when we plot the weekly dow index From 1972 to 1978,we seems to get a good correlation. Is it because i am searching for patterns that patterns seems appear to me or is there a hidden symmetry behind it. My negative bias for patterns,waves are very high.i have a feel
Read more: George

Program trading
2007-08-04 13:28:53
  Program trading is going to be the  buzz word in the coming days  On any given day,  over 30% of the volume on the New York Stock Exchange comes from automatic, computer-generated buy and sell programs.   the direction of global markets is determined a lot less by human beings and a lot more through program trading by computer programs, models, and algorithms. Algorithmic  trading is a subset of program trade . Here Large orders are broken down into several smaller orders and entered into the market over time American markets and equity markets generally have a higher proportion of algo trades than other markets, and estimates for 2008 range as high as an 80% proportion in some markets.it is also used by hedge funds and similar traders to make the decision to initiate orders based on information that is received electronically, before human traders are even aware of the information. for the small investor this type of trading is the forbidden fruit.  First, you can’t partic


Another indicator to find market top
2007-08-08 05:47:31
 I have found the  NASDAQ/NYSE ratio a good indicator to find the market momentum.  When the ratio is upwards, the NASDAQ is outperforming and the market is in a bullish mode.  When the ratio turns lower, the NASDAQ is underperforming and the market is in a defensive mode.  When the ratio goes up , investors are buying growth stocks with  higher levels of risk.  When the ratio turns down, investors are becoming more defensive and are less willing to accept risk.    As can be seen from the chart ,before feb 27 selloff in December itself this ratio had given negative divergence.Since july 07 this ratio is again showing negative divergence.The readers can test this ratio for the past few years and see for themself how accurate this ratio works out.


Is the storm over ?
2007-08-10 06:27:40
The days after feb 27 and the past days have been similar as far as the $xbd is concerned.Are we going to see a 21 day bull rally??? 


itraxx.
2007-08-10 06:05:14
A good read on the current global financial trends can be obtained from the web site of major global banks in their research section.I will quote from the danske bank site on August 6. “Carry trades out of favour As of Tuesday July 31, aggregate net short USD positions were modestly reduced to USD -22.9bn from 26.7bn in the prior week as investors scaled back speculative positions on the back of financial turbulence. EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD net longs as well as JPY and CHF net shorts were cut back. Carry positions longs in the high-yielding currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP) and shorts in the low-yielding currencies (CHF, JPY) narrowed sharply. JPY and CHF net shorts as well as AUD and NZD net longs reached the smallest levels since March 2007. GBP net longs remain at elevated levels despite the drop on the week.MXN net longs fell to the smallest level since April 2007.Speculative traders extended net crude oil contracts to a new record high. Gold and silver long contracts retracted,


No comments!.
2007-08-14 08:56:49



Welcome to the Bull party.
2007-08-13 05:48:54
Today dow will end at above +150. we are going to have a 2-3  week bull rally. The US Federal Reserve has injected $19 billion of temporary reserves into the financial system on Friday — its biggest single temporary open market operation in four years and second such move in two days. In a second move on Friday, the US central bank injected another $16 billion, bringing the day’s total to $35 billion. The European Central Bank and Asian authorities also added cash to their financial systems on Thursday and Friday. The Bank of Japan announced on Monday that it will inject 600 billion yen into the banking system to avert liquidity shortages after recent turbulence on global financial markets. what we are hearing is only the firefighting.The fire is still there…….Anyway now is the time to buy your calls and when this rally reaches a peak you can buy your puts and wait for the whirlwind. I will post a immortal phot of a bull by Leviathor . The chart above  exp
Read more: Welcome

Yesterdays 3.10 pm rally and the Plunge Protection Team
2007-08-17 04:45:10
The Working Group on Financial Markets, also know as the Plunge Protection Team, was created  by Executive Order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988 by United States President Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown of October 1987. Its members include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the SEC and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Recently, the team has been on high alert given the increased volatility of the markets and what Hank Paulson calls “the systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives.”  These have all contributed to the markets’ erratic behavior and created the likelihood that the Plunge Protection Team may be stealthily intervening behind the scenes. According to John Crudele of the New York Post, the Plunge Protection Team’s (PPT) modus operandi was revealed by a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, Robert Heller. Heller said that disasters cou
Read more: Yesterdays

Grave warning!
2007-08-16 11:56:36
USD to YEN is now 112.5.From 123 in june last has become 112.5.Carry trade is worth around 1500 billion dollars and is HIGHLY leveraged.The fall of dow will be very swift and fast.
Read more: Grave , warning

Where is the bottom?
2007-08-16 11:38:08
For dow 12275 is the bottom,from there a rally to 12760 and from then a slide to the end of the world .A small bottom at 12570. How many days will it take for this all to happen.? The unwinding of carry trades has now hit the panic stage with the yen strengthening very rapidly over the past few hours as there has been a capitulation of positions. The yen has strengthened temporarily through the 114.00 level and, unusually within the USD/yen pair, there has been evidence of liquidity problems.Yen at 114 sound the death knell for highly leveraged hedge funds with complex computer models.


The rising yen and its effect on the DOW index.
2007-08-15 06:25:45
 The yen gained to a 4 1/2-month high against the dollar and the euro . The yen climbed to 116.61, the highest since March 28, before trading at 116.78 at 6:30 a.m. in New York, from 117.57 late yesterday. It also gained to 157.21 per euro, the strongest since April 2, before being quoted at 157.43 from 159.12. Investors are still exiting overweight positions in risky assets, and in the currency markets the large net long speculative positions being unwound are in the Aussie, Kiwi, sterling and euro This rising yen is not good for Dow. The chart above shows the correlation with Yen and DOG(INVERSE ETF OF DOW). Now some good news is emerging from japan that the rate cut may be deffered.The chances of a rate hike this month have dwindled, but there is growing speculation that a September hike may also be unlikely and that the BOJ will wait until later in the year to raise interest rates,” said Hiroyoshi Sandaya, a fixed-income strategist at Goldman Sachs.
Read more: effect

Georg Lindsay pattern and the Weekly chart of Dow from 2001 to the present.
2007-08-15 05:53:41
Can  three Peaks and a Domed House patterns of Georg Lindsay be noticed in the weekly chart of Dow from 2001 to the present.If the pattern is noticed and if the pattern is prophetic then we are in for a big party.12200 seems a very nice resistance as per the chart.I still think that the downward slide will come only after a short rally. I last commented on this 2001 to present chart on july 28.
Read more: Weekly

After the fed discount rate cut ,what the leaders say.
2007-08-19 10:43:40
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0708/gallery.crisiscounsel.fortune/index.html This link will take you to cnnmoney.com where Henry Paulson, Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, John Mack and others tell Fortune what they see next for the markets. Some extracts “Federal Reserve was not founded to bail out Bear Stearns or a few hedge funds. It was founded to keep a stable currency and maintain its value.” Jim Rogers “For example, right now we are stewing over what everyone calls “the subprime mess” and going crazy, mourning all day and into the night–falling over ourselves to get all of the misery right, to paraphrase Evita. I’m writing this on Aug. 13, 2007, and in the past four or five weeks, the markets of the U.S. have lost some 7% of their value, or about $1 trillion. But read on: The subprime mortgage world is about 15% of all mortgages, or $1.5 trillion worth, very roughly. About 10%–approximately $150 billion–is in arrears.


Hyman minsky.
2007-08-26 10:50:56
Photo by   riclane   Dr. Minsky the economist proposed theories linking financial market fragility, in the normal going of an economy, with speculative investment bubbles endogenous to financial markets. Basically, Minsky found that in prosperous times, when corporate cash flow rises beyond what is needed to pay off debt, a speculative euphoria develops, and soon thereafter debts exceed what borrowers can pay off from their incoming revenues, which in turn produces a financial crisis. As a result of such speculative borrowing bubbles, banks and lenders tighten credit availability, even to companies that can afford loans, and the economy subsequently contracts Disagreeing with many mainstream economists, he argued that these swings, and the booms and busts that can accompany them, are inevitable in a free market economy, unless government steps in to control them, through regulation, central bank action and other tools; such mechanisms, in fact, came into existence in response to t


Austrian Business Cycle Theory
2008-05-02 02:04:45
The Austrian Business Cycle Theory was developed by the economist Ludwig von Mises to explain the phenomenon of business cycles. It provides crucial insight for understanding the cause of cyclical boom/bust cycles and their connection the government’s manipulation of the economy. To understand the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, an analogy is helpful: Imagine an economy with [...]


Bangs Canyon Luna
2008-05-02 02:01:12
Bangs Canyon Luna Originally uploaded by Fantastic Media Labs
Read more: Bangs

No title
2008-05-22 21:30:49
“There’s a few hedge fund managers out there who are masters at knowing how to exploit the peak [oil] theories and hot buttons of supply and demand and by making bold predictions of shocking price advancements to come, they only add more fuel to the bullish fire in a sort of self fulfilling prophecy.” — [...]


US INFLATION
2008-05-27 04:17:16
The U.S. economy is in an intensifying inflationary recession that eventually will evolve into a hyperinflationary great depression. Hyperinflation could be experienced as early as 2010, if not before, and likely no more than a decade down the road. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the [...]


oil price
2008-06-20 11:56:05
Oil price s swooned after China’s National Development and Reform Commission said it will hike the price of gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and electricity. The Chinese government lifted fuel prices by 11% in November but had kept them frozen at that level, part of an effort to avoid boosting [...]
Read more: oil price

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