Owner: Communications Breakdown URL:http://telcommunicator.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Sat, 07 Oct 2006 01:42:44 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: Tracking trends in telecoms, internet and media businesses. It´s for investors, but I do not give recommendations. Typical subjects are wireless technologies such as WiMAX; issues around competition and regulation; internet search technology and click fra Site statistics:Click here
Lyse Tele adds WiFi/GSM to its FTTH offering 2007-06-28 04:12:00 The disruptive FTTH operator Lyse Tele (owned by Lyse Energi) teams with Comverse and Cicero to add mobile, effectively producing the quad play.
It includes wVoIP (the CiceroPhone client - not UMA but SIP based) and seamless WiFi
/GSM roaming (voice only, mind you). At home, calls will be routed via WiFi to the BB connection. Outside the home, mobile will be ordinary GSM calls (Lyse doesn't own a Read more:offering
FTTH is the endgame (but it will take a while) 2007-06-27 01:53:00 Yesterday I attended the 'Next Generation Network Conference', hosted by Euromoney's Global Telecoms Business, in Amsterdam. Thanks for inviting me!
It was an interesting day, even if there wasn't so much really new. I enjoyed talking to telco and vendor officials, most notably Dirk 'Amsterdam' van der Woude.
Below I will summarize my take of the views on a number of trends (which I regularly
The BCE bid implies 20% upside at KPN and 30% at BT 2007-07-02 08:36:00 Pensioen funds and private equity are performing an LBO at BCE. Its valuation, 7.8 times EBITDA over the trailing twelve months, implies an equivalent bid level of EUR 14.93 at KPN (a 21% upside
) and GBP 438 (a 31% premium) for BT.
Check out the underlying calculations in this Google Spreadsheet.
Adding some realism to WiMAX and xMax 2007-07-02 05:07:00 How realistic are claims of both WiMAX
and xMax when it comes to cost savings on network build-outs, relative to GSM or CDMA-based networks?
I suppose a good deal of common sense (if not scepticism) is needed.
Just to add a thought on each:
WiMAX: in this release it is revealed that the range is limited to just 0.75-1.00 miles when indoor-coverage is needed to deliver 5 Mbps. Remember that
Google adds another element to its enterprise strategy 2007-07-09 08:47:00 Today's Postini acquisition raises the issue of how serious Google
is on its efforts aimed at the enterprise
market. I think there is more to come.
So far, Google is almost entirely about the consumer market (if consumer and professional users can be separated at all), with advertisers to pay for it. 'Licensing & Other Revenue' was just 1.0% of total revenues in Q1 of 2007. Now, Google appears
Co-operation will drive separation and FTTH 2007-07-09 08:41:00 This news out of Italy unites three of my favorite (and interrelated) trends: co-operation, separation and FTTH.
Apparently, alternative operators (Vodafone Italia, Fastweb, Wind, Tiscali, BT, Tele2, Welcome Italia and Eutelia) are calling for a break-up of Telecom Italia.
1. Co-op
Note that PTTs who resist full separation at home (BT, Swisscom), allow their foreign subsidiaries (BT Italy, Read more:drive
Yahoo! preview: was Q1 the bottom? 2007-07-17 09:09:00 Growth numbers seem to suggest that Yahoo
! passed the corner, 07Q1 having been the bottom.
Check out the table, based on sales of $1.24bn - the consensus number that slavishly follows guidance (i.e. toward the top end of the lower half of the original range).
Co-op gaining momentum 2007-07-17 08:21:00 German alternative network operators, both wholesale (Vodafone's Arcor, Telefonica Deutschland) and integrated players (Versatel, Telecom Italia's Hansenet) are planning to jointly build a VDSL network.
This underscores a trend gaining considerable momentum
: co-operation to better compete with the incumbent.
Comparable events:
Australia's G9 and Telenor's Swedish operation have similar
Will mobile network sharing lead to separation? 2007-07-16 02:52:00 This news from Thailand again brings up the matter of separation in wireless network
s. Thai Mobile seems to volunteer the building of the nation's first 3G network, to which it will offer open access to all operators.
Other recent news around mobile network sharing:
Vodafone UK and Orange UK plan RAN sharing (3G and 2G) to reduce capex and opex by 20-30%.Hutch Essar and Bharti plan
Yahoo! v. Google: converging strategies but very different results 2007-07-20 15:16:00 Yahoo! and Google
reported and showed some remarkable differences, even as in fact they have converging strategies.
Obviously, Yahoo! is playing both the search/ads game and the portal game, whereas Google is doing search/ads and applications. Besides, Yahoo! has income from fees and tries to add apps. Google on the other hand earns license fees and is growing its portal ambitions. Add to that Read more:Yahoo
, different
, results
Google takes another look at access network opportunities 2007-07-20 06:17:00 Google is taking another look at the access business. Having invested in a worldwide fiber backbone and an extensive datacenter network
, the 'only' piece missing from the netwok puzzle is an access network.
Today, they are investing in Ubiquisys, which manufactures femtocells. Basically, femtocells are an emerging technology, aimed at a better user experience (in-house coverage), as well as Read more:Google
Is Amazon's opportunity over twice eBay's? 2007-07-26 07:34:00 Check this sheet, comparing Amazon
.com and eBay, based on the 07Q2 quarter. (I had to estimate the eBay employee numbers.)
Is Amazon.com too expensive, or is there more to come? I suppose Amazon has a much bigger market opportunity (retail shifting online) than eBay (auctions must be much closer to maturing). However:
1. Both show continued growth. Is the acceleration at Amazon going to last?
Is Telecom Italia serious about the Netherlands after all? 2007-07-31 08:13:00 FTTH Update
Planet Multimedia reports that bbned, the Dutch wholesale unbundling operator owned by TelecomItalia
, has bought InterNLnet, an ISP affiliated to Nijmegen University. InterNLnet's portfolio is geared toward both ADSL and FTTH networks. The latter include networks owned by Portaal (housing corporation) and GNA (Amsterdam Citynet).
I sort of expected a move like this. If TI do not Read more:serious
, Netherlands
Kabel-X: Copper-to-fiber with limited digging 2007-08-02 02:32:00 Take a look at this: FTTH made cheap & easy. Kabel
-X touts 'Copper
to Fibre without excavation'. Taking excavation (or really: replacing it with some other labour) out of the equation will "save your business up to 200,000 euros per kilometre compared to conventional digging
".
Besides, the copper can be sold at 20-30 $/meter and will no longer attract individuals with unhealthy intentions. Read more:limited
FTTH keeps moving ahead in August 2007-08-27 05:51:00 Returning from a long holiday period, I want to summarize the big news of August
, with a T.I.M. (telecom internet media) twist.
1. FTTH
The local Metro free daily reports on Reggefiber. This Dik Wessels (a Dutch billionaire who made his money in the construction sector, as well as by being part of World Online when it went public) vehicle builds out in the Netherlands. The costs are EUR 1000 Read more:keeps
, ahead
Google's Grand Plan 2007-08-18 16:18:00 Between Holidays
Just returned from two weeks of well-deserved (?) vacation, and only a single (totally?) unoriginal thought on my mind. It concerns Google
's Grand
Plan.
I'm off again for the whole of next week. Come and meet me in New York. I will be at the Hilton on 6th Avenue.
Robert Cringely almost a year ago stirred the Internet community when he suggested that Google was building an
Google and EutelSat to the rescue 2007-09-03 05:26:00 Google added a feature to Google Maps which allows bloggers to display maps. Check out the sidebar to see where I am.
All I need now is decent access to the world from my German place. That may come through satellite. Read more:Google
Update on WiMAX 2007-09-27 03:19:00 The WiMAX
World 2007 Expo invited many participants to issue press releases. Here is a short overview of what is happening at the moment.
1. Equipment and technology
Several vendors have started interoperability testing. Also, competion for erstwhile first-movers Alvarion, Redline, Navini and Aperto is still on the rise, as Nortel, Nokia, Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola expand their offering. Read more:Update
Dell, Tele2 and Google: moving away from cheap services 2007-09-24 04:32:00 This New York Times article will probably not reveal anything new on Dell, but it does ring a bell in the telco and internet world.
Basically, Dell is trying to overcome the end of the Dell model. This business model (build to order), together with a strong focus on the US corporate market, gave the company considerable scale, before it broke down. Now however, using its scale, it can 'simply' Read more:Google
Telefonica and KPN: no longer predator and target 2007-09-20 06:42:00 Mid July Telefonica
largely abandoned its takeover strategy. Instead, it will focus on internal growth. "The time has come to change focus, and sweat our assets."
Late August, KPN strengthened its Belgian mobile operation Base by adding the Tele2 Belgium assets to it. This effectively precluded a Belgacom merger or offer.
Look at the above chart to see what investors thought of all this non-M&A
Tiered service and the broadband incentive problem 2007-09-20 05:40:00 The 'Broadband Incentive Problem' must be among the most vexing for operators. Obviously, usage-based payment is a way out of it, but not easily implemented. People like flat fees and have no clue how much an MB is. Mark Desautels of CTIA recently rephrased the problem and highlighted that the flat-fee business model implies that light users (email and browsing) are in fact subsidising heavy Read more:broadband
KPN pushes outsourcing to the max 2007-09-17 08:45:00 John Marcus of Current Analysis recently wrote an article on outsourcing coming to fixed telcos. Now, KPN has been doing its own over the past few weeks, outsourcing several tasks (CRM, billing, testing, graphical systems) to a range of IT companies (Accenture, IBM, Capgemini, LogicaCMG, Satyam, Sogeti and ICT Automatisering). Before, several wireless access networks were outsourced to Ericsson
Gaiacomm: mad scientists v. the establishment 2007-09-13 05:28:00 Back in July, I picked up a couple of factoids on the (not so good) real-life performance of WiMAX and xMax. I also noted that xMax had (surprisingly) received an award from Frost & Sullivan. Previously a company named Gaiacomm International had received a similar award. Referring to Gaiacomm as a ‘dormant’ company got its CTO commenting to my post. And that developed into quite an extensive Read more:scientists
Good Morning! 2007-09-13 01:50:00 This report from USA Today makes it absolutely clear where the FCC is, when it comes to a la carte programming: "... on Tuesday plans to begin considering banning programmers from tying ...".
Once more, for those who haven't had their coffee yet: PLANS to BEGIN CONSIDERING banning.
Thanks, Leslie. Read more:Morning
, Good Morning
Making IPTV more attractive by adding apps 2007-09-11 03:11:00 These two releases look promising: middleware companies making efforts at developing applications for IPTV. The end user is empowered, the international developer community enriches the middleware, and the capablity is taken out of the hands of telcos.
Orca Interactive teamed with Muvee. The resulting 'Livephotos' app enables end users to "create personalised video albums from their photos and Read more:attractive
How to prepare the investment community for FTTH 2007-09-06 03:54:00 Yesterday I met with an executive of a leading European telco. He invited me to exchange views. For me, these are always excellent opportunities for some reality checking.
FTTH once more demanded most of our attention. As I see it, telcos are trying to pursuade the investmentcommunity
to get to grips with it.
Below are my take-aways.
1. VDSL
My companion strongly believes in the viability of
Google goes wireless - one way or the other 2007-09-04 06:39:00 Google is set to enter the mobile market. Most recently, both an OS and a handset popped up in stories around the net. However, the company seems to follow a two-pronged strategy: do-it-yourself, or hook up to the existing ecosystem.
Once more Google is the frienemy, so it should try not to enrage existing partners. It could do this by granting them the lion's share of advertising revenues (in Read more:Google
Update on FTTH 2007-10-02 02:22:00 070829: Truckee (Cal) plans network (15,500 homes/businesses, > $15.5m), with 180 Network Services
070902: Verizon 'FiOS' trials 100 Mbps
070903: CityNet (GNA (= Amsterdam, 5 housing corps, ING, Reggefiber) phase 1 on track (40k homes, EUR 30m) for completion mid 2008, with Draka Comteq and Van den Berg Infrastructuren
070903: Iliad ('Free') plans launch of service (TV (2 sets, >100 channels), Read more:Update
Separation: take a poll 2007-10-01 08:53:00 FTTH and separation are hot! Check out the blogs of the Fibre Ring (see right hand column).
Also, Benoit is running a poll on the separation issue (see top right). Click here to take the poll. Read more:Separation
Demand drives FTTH drives separation 2007-10-01 07:40:00 FTTH and separation are probably the most important trends in telecom right now. They are also linked.
I believe demand for bandwidth and nations competing for a larger share of the worldwide GDP pie will drive investments in FTTH networks. Telcos feel the heat and are preparing investors for a large capex round.
At the same time, realisation builds that there is value in both networks and
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