Owner: The Art Of Growing Money URL:http://growmoney.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Tue, 08 Aug 2006 10:24:58 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: Welcome to my trading journal! A place where I share my Psychology, Money Management & Trading system on trading shares in the Singapore Stock Market. Fellow shares enthusiasts are welcomed to share thoughts too. I hope my posts will be educational to you Site statistics:Click here
A glimpse on indices 2007-09-20 20:49:00 DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Read more:glimpse
Market refuses to head lower 2007-09-18 07:44:00 I decided to cut my Federal last Friday after a failed breakout. Today I cut my HSIPW after HSI did not follow through yesterday's selling. After monitoring the price actions for the whole day, it seems to me that it doesn't want to go down. At every dip, there is plenty of buyers. As I am buying the warrants, i cannot forget it is a wasting asset due to the time decay factor. If I had shorted the futures, then I can perfects trade my short position higher, or do a scale up selling.My plan was to lift either my stocks or puts according to where the market is likely to head, when europe market opened steady, and hsi close firm, i had to lift my puts in favour of a positive reaction by the market tomorrow.Another reason for lifting my HSIPW is that, I don't want to risk the upside due to a possible interest rate cut. Although I do not think cutting the interest rate can solve the problem, but who am i to go against the market? Rather than holding on to the put warrants and stand again Read more:Market
No eyes see 2007-09-14 01:25:00 With my stocks not going up, and HSI going against my trade strongly..... I stepped into Federal upon breakout and once again, breakout no follow through....
Under-estimating China Money 2007-09-13 09:01:00 I had under-estimated the power of China
money as Hang Seng finished new high once again. Seems like the word sell or profit-taking is not in the chinese dictionary. My short position is out of the money. It will be foolish of me to counter the trend. I will look to trade up my short position ahead of Fed's meeting. Also if the market refuse to head lower, I will be looking to add more stocks. AdvHldg looks to be holding well with volume drying up. LC Dev, i don't like the way it failed at the breakout and once again there is no follow up buying in the sector. Infact this syndrome can be observed accross the market. Some glaring forgotten stocks like unionmet, sunvic, had an incredible run. Also, it seems like the market tone is firming up. I will be watching the next leg down since we are not able to maximise the gap up over the last 2 days. Gaps are very powerful as it marks th strong conviction of the market participants. If 2 successive gap ups unable to propel market Read more:Money
Construction flexes muscle 2007-09-12 08:55:00 After taking a week's break, constuctions rumble again and hitting top volume. I picked up LC Dev after the latter seem to have broke out with volume and price. However it seem to have hit resistance 0.480. I just have to try because i had been tracking this stock for weeks and been waiting to pull trigger. When the signal came, i just have to stick to my discipline. I also added a batch of HSI PW. This is for my structural short position if the market tanks down form here as this is a very attractive level to hold a short. With 2 stocks in my portfolio for now, i'm hedged. If the market proves to be resilient, i shall cut my put warrants and long more. If I am correct on the downside, i shall remove my long positions and look to short more. I believe market has arrived to what we call a pivot point.Screening the market with XPertTrader, I saw quite a number stocks traded higher with high volume. It seems to me market is rotating through the sectors. Why else would sunvic and unionme Read more:Construction
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Bracing for the onslaught 2007-09-09 09:53:00 Looking at the chart of STI, if we close lower than 3400s, it will be ugly. Technically it means we have some more downside. Many would expect STI to test the last low 2960. Personally, if fibo 38.2% holds at 3300, effectively we still have higher low. And should STI turns up from there, good sign. Anyhow, there is currently no catalyst for STI to be bullish. I favour working out a nice chart base and then we challenge 3700 by November.All along, i favour another leg down to ascertain the selling pressure and hence I didn't actively load up stocks to avoid risk but only 1 which is Adv Hldg. Tomorrow I will scrutinise the tape closely. I did for a moment feel like a fool watching the market rebound strongly and yet I did not profit much. Greed. Technically, it is risky to load up and hence staying out is my best option. Had I sucummb to greed, tonight i would be a very worried man as i will be badly exposed to the possible downside facing us tomorrow.Ai zai, recently, i notice STI rece
STI rumbles! 2007-09-06 10:59:00 Analysing Adv Hldg in details as I have vested interest. RSI is near resistance, Possible resistance level is 0.520 and target price of flag pole should be conservatively 0.570Adv Hlding went higher after breakout the previous day and it has been going up for 2 days straight. Hence I ought to be prudent and will be looking to sell upon weakness for a successful swing trade. What makes this win sweeter is that it is screened using XPertTrader. I am going to upload this rule into our XPertTrader library so that subscribers can enjoy using the rule. Maybe next week at the workshop, i will demonstrate.For those interested to join ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course, you will be given 3 months free of XPertTrader subscriptions worth $105.XPertTrader Screening for Short term Price pattern:ArmstrongTiongwoonSunningTechSMB UnitedOcculusYongnamLC DevLum changI'm still observing for breakouts in the stocks above. Tomorrow is Friday and it will be a fantastic time to fish if the weather i
Technical Glitch on STI 2007-09-05 10:36:00 Many thanks to Minwen and Zhi Yang from mypaper.sg (hope i get the name right as my mandarin is only half past six) for featuring my humble blog in the papers. The mandarin in the passage was like wow! so many idioms ah.. keke somehow intensify a simple interview.. wah journalist jiu si journalist... the pen bery powerderful! :D And Zhi Yang, snap snap away at shenton way with many passerbys giving me the wierd look! haha I thought i will never have to do this after my bridal shoot, i was wrong! :DIt was certainly a pleasant surprise for my folks. Thanks for making their day a happy one. : )Early in the trading day, there was a technical glitch on STI. Simsci open gap up and my put warrants from the day before looks set to be BBQ'ed. However due to the glitch, STI did not track simsci and it gave me time to get out of my put warrants with a 2 bids loss. Lucky escape! However, as i always avoid risk, the warrants i bought has got a slower delta and hence it won't move very fast agains Read more:Technical
30k to 40k per month? 2007-09-04 22:48:00 Just to set the record right, I am not making 30k to 40k per month! haha It was an estimation based on my stock picks by the press. I never like to tempt people into trading promising big profits. It is certainly not easy. Rather for anyone who wishes to join this game, understand the RISK and learn how to manage risk before we even think about big profits. Thinking about profits all the time will weaken your psychology against market swings which are normal and happen plenty of times. This is one reason why many people took a loss and then only to watch the market rebound on them.Trust me, when you are able to decipher the market, money will flow naturally. Focus on deciphering the market.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
Early Stage of Recovery? 2007-09-04 09:02:00 The market showed a glaring no follow through in buying where most of the stock went under profit taking. A slew of economic data are due from the US. Bush and Ben assurance about economy and credit crunch did not have any impact outside US as all other regions succumb to weaker closing. Nothing bearish as yet as there were no massive selldown not including Midas.If we are at the early stage of recovery, sector by sector, interest will rotate in. It will not be good to see one sector after another showing "stalling" actions. Which means massive volume yet prices refuse to close higher. However i don't rule out one more leg down. This is because the current psychological state of market participants should be nervy and quick to profit. So long price doesn't move up further, common thinking is to sell first. Hence it is important for me to track the 4 sectors as mentioned yesterday for any clues of market direction. Since tomorrow is already Wednesday then Friday's closing should be e Read more:Recovery
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2 Obvious Sectors 2007-09-03 09:19:00 After tracking the rebound for 2 weeks, as we enter into the third week, it is time to pick the sector i will be invested in. Once I am confident of the market direction, this is the sector i will build my new portfolio around. From this sector, i will then look for the leader by my own definitions. Oil and gas suppliers looks good and constructions, it will be interesting to see if there is any follow through buying since they only started to rumble last week. I treat today's no follow through as an indication that there are plenty of selling still.Banks and Properties are the 2 sectors i will also scrutinise closely. I am taking a contrarian view here because it is too obvious that these 2 sectors will be under pressure. Using technical analysis, i will follow the smart money and avoid conventional thinking. Should smart money began to buy, i will follow too. But right now, i'm happier to stay sidelined.Recently, i managed to devised a XP screening rule to pick up possible short te Read more:Obvious
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Hail the Red Army ! 2007-10-01 07:03:00 China funds may flow into Singapore! I really hope our china shares go crazy just like what happens in Hang Seng. The last time the market interest is so strong on China shares is probably in 2006. The other best time was in 2004-2005 season, fwah!! That was when 1 china stock cheong, the rest will follow ! It makes making money looks easy. However this time round, the gains are more spectacular. By the way, the money is not in yet... hahaha Imagine on 15th October, China Govt say, NO! Money will not go out... we shall see how all the gaps will be covered! keke Well... just be more careful and prudent. I would love to see intra week weakness..that will be the greatest chance to load up again. Today I picked up Jiutian during intra day pull back. I only have 1 China stock in my portfolio and it is simply not good enough! Hence I searched high and low, flipped through many charts... before I selected my trade. A number of observations that i made, on 21st Sept 2007, my trading system u
Right Time, Right Place 2007-10-07 07:50:00 Like I always advocate in my course, keep things simple. The truth is, the simplest Technical Analysis will work. In the example above, when Hiap Seng was being sold down, it caught everyone by surprise. It was the only oil gas company that was being sold when we see a broad market rally. Armed with just an oscillator (RSI) and classical T.A, I found a "growmoney line". This is nothing more than a trendline which i drew. keke In 2006, I give all time high a name, blueline...so here we go, another new name! :D haha My perceived support was about 80 cts, and I found 200 SMA trading nearby, fibonacci 61.8% was near too and last of all, my growmoney line. Even a gap support is nearby. I drew a conclusion that this must be a very strong support. There is no guarantee that I will be right that this stock will hold at my perceived support. Fear about it going down after buying? What if it goes up and I don't have a position? All I need to do is to put in a position size that is subjected Read more:Right
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Fair Game? 2007-10-04 10:06:00 EI-Nets has a great trading day where it's volume and price shoots through the roof. SGX queried as per SOP and the company replied in a so standard fashion that is all too common....they are not aware what could have caused this. Remember this stock, according to past experience, weeks later it will be in the open what caused this unusual trading activity. Stock Market a fair game? I doubt so. kekeIt was good to see late buying. Although late buying is typically good, it could also be due to shorts covering. Today I picked up one more stock, Hiap Seng. Interestingly it is trading near the 200 DMA while the rest of the oil & gas play are still firm. My view is fundamentally is sound, technically it's ugly. I remember their contracts are up to the brim. Hence I am trading my opinion on this stock. If i'm wrong, I will bite the bullet.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
Portfolio makeover 2007-10-03 07:22:00 A perfect chance for me to load up more red chips as the market took a pause today. I think it is largely affected by the -700 closing on HSI. HSI have a big gap near 27,200 for support. It could test this. Over the last 2 days, I cashed out of Genting and Adv Hldg to take up ChinaHong and ChinaWheel. Holding on to Genting and Adv Hldg to me was opportunity cost and of course i be badly exposed to market risk should i not reduce some positions before adding. Anyway, pulling the trigger is easy for me because I already had the plan in mind on Monday. When the time comes, i only have to act. The price actions of my china plays must be firm or more upside by Friday.Do not hesistate to join our seminar at SGX Auditorium where I will be sharing on how to trade effectively with Fibonacci. What's more, look out for ChartNexus special promotion! Register at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1133GrowMoney Growth FundHLHJasperLC DevAusgrpYangZhiJiangJiutianChinaHongChinaWheelDIS Read more:Portfolio
Treacherous Market 2007-10-18 09:20:00 Broad market showed weakness after lunch and many finishes off their highs. Now this trading pattern is very different from how we traded from 2006 through to 2007. Infact the last 3 weeks, market seems to be hitting invisible wall but yet unable to plunge. Screening through the market, there are still some individual stocks who showed strength. A quick check on STI saw that the RSI and 20SMA is supported and just yesterday we rebounded from that level. However there is a slight negative divergence on the weekly chart. So long daily chart holds, this divergence should be able to negate. Although market was down today... 2 of my stocks rallied. So long my stocks stayed up, market can swing all it wants! :D hahaSomething about JiutTian, they are going to issue the warrants with strike price at 80cts. With current market price trading at low 60s, this warrant will only have time value with almost no premium since it's so far out of the money. I personally think the risk/reward favou Read more:Market
Reading multiple time frame 2007-10-17 09:22:00 Let me start tonight's blog by sharing one of my methodology of Technical Analysis: Analysing multiple time frame.SeeHS on the weekly chart, a classic rising wedge has formed. Why classic? Because the volume is declining just like a textbook rising wedge. My own interpretation of RSI current shows that the weekly price chart is under selling pressure. If price close near the lows on the weekly chart, my CFD is ready... keke Today I was abit more hardworking and walked over to finally get the account ready after months of talking about it. What I don't like is the cost of finance which stands at 4%...The daily chart of SeeHS paints a totally different picture. Oscillators showing oversold, bullish engulfing pattern is formed based on last trading day and of course, I was attracted to this stock because of my daily XPertTrader screening rule, MacDHistogram signal. Looks like coming days we may see higher price for SeeHS.No follow through in selling! Hurray! For a moment, I thought mark Read more:Reading
Red Army Perished? 2007-10-16 08:52:00 Massive selling! Looks like I may be wrong about china plays as they were sold down in tantem today. Contra players and weak holders should already be shaken out last two weeks. Today's selling may be the final washout. I am observing we are near oversold levels and yet at the same time many of the China stocks are still seeing strength, trading at overbought levels. Key support levels are still holding. I think I had been reminded many time through my XPertTrader screening, there are hardly any quality stocks that I see leading the rally. Anyway, with 19th Oct the dreaded anniversary drawing near, I will be careful incase the market really celebrate it by selling down. Also, 17th Oct is a bradley turn date. Now that we have been sold down, perhaps we turn up instead of down? :P Tonight must check with Zhuge Liang who is master for astrology analysis.All is not lost for Xiao Hong. Trading at a level which is attractive to pick up. The above chart shows how resistance may becom
QDII Fun no more 2007-10-15 09:02:00 My opinion of a short term pause in China plays was short lived as we goes into third week of wilderness. They were trading in a tight range without going higher or significantly lower. Their counterparts in HK and Shanghai were so much better. My opinion remains for now that the play will rotate back into China plays unless PRC government make some unfriendly comments about QDII fund. I was never convinced that China's interest rate hike will affect the price. This is because it is widely anticipated and should have been priced in. The current frenzy in Hang Seng and China reminded one and all about how Nikkei rallied to 30k in the 80s and they too were in self denial when warned about the bubble. They said, "This time its different". From a high of 30k, it then went as low as 8k after the bubble burst. The same is said of China this time round. I heard many people said the 4 dreaded words...."This time its different" Olympics, China market cannot margin, cannot contra...
Is it really that bad? 2007-10-22 09:10:00 Yes, the index does closed very ugly and that accross the board, bloodshed. However using my screening, i searched and found that despite the big sell off, we didn't go down further. Although this does not guarantee we don't go down further from here but I am able to produce 2 opinions:a) in recent weeks, there wasn't any sucker rally and that mostly shares did not close up higher and i could feel a lack of participation from the retail side. Hence there will not be alot of panic selling.b) DJ is near support at 13,400... it will be nice to see this level holding. Furthermore, alot of stocks are trading at their major support levels. If all these levels start to crack, my CFD account is ready.I just concluded my course over the weekend and remembered something valuable which I have forgotten. As I introduced alot of strategies and techniques in the course, by the second day, I could usually see the "information overload" syndrome in the room. One participant asked, "So many t
Red Army tries again 2007-10-25 09:44:00 I sold my ausgrp at 1.81 (bought 1.81 4 weeks ago). During the 4 weeks, Ausgrp went as high as 1.92 yet i didn't sell for profit. It also went as low as 1.74. My trading system is trend following and I tend to sit on a trend. It became obvious to me that i am early in the trade. Also the recent movement of the market is, good news and bad news doesn't move the market. In 2005, we plunge after trading sideways. In 2006, we traded sideways and then surprise everyone in November by going on a strong bull run that leads us to 3k. I respect risk. Although I still have a portfolio of stocks, i must agree readily that we are behaving like in a market top. The inevitable can happen. But, we will not know when. The only thing we can do is to manage our risk. When it happens, just remember to run away. The plunge from market top can take a few months to happen, so there is still upside to make from. This is why i will not just sell everything and wait for the crash to happen. Wh Read more:tries
Focus on market not on paper gains/losses 2007-10-29 10:31:00 A quick tip about controlling your psychology in trading is never to focus on the paper
profits/losses. By now, this golden rule has been internalised. 4 weeks ago, I began to have doubts about my opinion on China shares when my growth fund is having measley returns. The paper profits did not bother me. I was focussed on the general movement of china Shares and the market as a whole. Even as of now, with Hongxin rocketing off the base, I am still feeling indifferent than when I did not make any money. Alexander Elder said, "Take care of your losses and your profits will take care of themselves". What this guru meant was to cut your losses small and ride your profits long. When Genting, Adv Hldg, Ausgrp are not moving the way I anticipated, I was quick to take whatever nett profit I had from them because technically, I was either wrong or early in buying them. When I am right in my trade, I will not be eager to take profit off the table so soon prefering to ride them as far as Read more:Focus
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Abnormal Market Behaviour 2007-11-01 10:07:00 I do not like the way how market is behaving lately. Firstly, the recovery from the August low was too fast. Secondly, I observed that the price swing has been very wide and loose on the way up. This could be signs that the smart money are getting out. At the top, there shouldn't be alot of selling (volume) because there are limited over hang shareholders. The only explanation for the high volume is, smart money liquidating. Thirdly, the incredible run at HSI. Murphy law applies in the market too.Inorder to cut down risk, i sold HongXin when the selling persist. I had wanted to ride this on the way up but the price actions has been too loose and i didn't like the wild swing. If everything is fine, i will look to buy back again.I derive 2 opinions about the market.1) Market
trades in a range and we see major support levels hold.2) Market breaks the major support levels and we crash south creating a lower low in price actions.GrowMoney QuickpicksSPC (Bull)Ezra (Bull)UOB (Bear)SMB (Bear Read more:Behaviour
执子之手，与子偕老 2007-11-06 08:48:00 With my wedding and honey moon coming up, it's time to take a break from the market. I wish everyone tua tua huat and may the market leave some money for me when I am back in December.... Huat arh! kekeP.S I have taken my profit off YZJ inorder to cut down on my exposure. I shall sit through with the rest of the stocks that I owned unless the market really forces me to run clean clean. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
Convincing rally alas 2007-12-05 08:42:00 I was told today's rally was the most convincing with volume and strong buying over the last 2 weeks. With 2 trading days left in the week, I will be observing the following:a) No heavy dumping at the topb) We see follow through buyingc) Normal retracement due to profit takingI picked up Synear in a nick of time when the China shares were in play. Nikkei's after lunch U-turn made lunch hour very exciting and when SSE was up 2%, our market rallied after lunch. This despite a report saying funds are pulling out from local bourse in the morning and we reacted negatively to it. However we soon recovered by lunch time.Looking at my portfolio, i had kept Jiutian & Chinawheel before I head for holidays. My strategy for these 2 stocks is to holdDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
Strategies on Banking sector 2007-12-04 10:05:00 MAS said profitability of local banks will be affected by subprime issues. My opinion is, if market is to go anywhere, banks should show the way? If they are resilient and head upwards, i think it will be safe to tikam on the upside slowly at first to reduce risk and add on when proven right. Otherwise if they fail at support turns resistance, put warrants will be handy. Here are few strategies on warrants i have devised.1. Buy very OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose little if stock trades upwards. The trick is, when a stock is moving down, it will be faster than going up.2. Buy slightly OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose time value if underlying trades sideway.3. Buy OTM PW with less than 30 days to expiry - will lose premium if underlying goes upNotice I focus on the risk first instead of thinking abt the rewards? Alexander Elder said, "If you take care of your losses, your profits will take care of themselves"I uploaded a cartoon made for my wed Read more:Strategies
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Firstly...identify market direction 2007-12-03 08:41:00 In all my seminars, courses and even the newspaper interview done this year, i always stressed the need to first determine the market direction. The NUMBER 1 reason for most who lost money in the stock market is we don't know where the market is heading. This was why i failed in my early days. Think about it, if the market direction is heading up, shouldn't majority of the shares be heading up? If the market direction is coming down, didn't most of the stocks keep coming down? Hence I believe inorder to avoid unneccessary losses in the market, one should first form an opinion on the general market direction instead of focussing which stock to trade.After standing aside the market for 30 days exactly to prepare for my wedding cum honeymoon, i lost the feel for market. This is the first time I have taken such a long leave from trading ever since I started persuing this life skills years ago. It was tough in the beginning as I fell sick due to trading withdrawal syndrome and this was 1 Read more:identify
Major support levels tested again 2007-12-13 08:41:00 At the seminar last night, we screened the market for signals.... 49 vs 1..... that is 49 sell signals vs 1 buy signal... so i was not surprised when market didn't head up today... but certainly i didn't expect it to be so bad!!! Nikkei started the rout during our lunch time. So when we came back from lunch, it was point of no return.It was no surprise when the market came crashing down today. Last 2 weeks saw limited buy signals and what we got were sell signals. Most major indices were ripe for a pull back. Ironically, this sharp pull back maybe better than dying a slow death. It will flush out plenty of stale holders giving us fresh buyers when the bullish time returns. I still don't like the loose price actions in most stocks. A bull market doesn't react this way. Furthermore, it was very obvious that most of the stocks encountered heavy dumping on the way up. ChinaFish was one such example, i was tempted to buy at 1.83, but i didn't find the volume convincing and my opinion w Read more:Major
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SPH near 2 year high 2007-12-10 07:55:00 Another bank fell under the subprime gong tao... This time round Temasek got vested. I saw Dr Tony Tan sitting at the press conference...it got me excited for a while because I thought SPH was the one whom injected the funds...keke needless to say as a die hard fan of SPH, it will be good news... but alas.. not to be. Speaking of SPH, it is now trading near it's 2 year high!!! $5 ? Akan datang. If Livermore is alive, he will be looking at this for sure. I shall look for CWs in anticipation keke... this is what I call pivotal point. Break, long, gostan we can go short. Definitely worth investigation. Using XPertTrader to screen, there are still no buy signals and at least 48 sell signals. This is where market condition takes precedence. We are now waiting for FOMC meeting and that leaves little incentive for market to move up. Tomorrow will offer great opportunity! I be watching Nikkei and HSI's closing to get into position. It has shown in the past, market seems to know
Pull backs 2007-12-09 08:51:00 China central bank raises bank reserve ratio by 1 percentage point - UPDATEDecember 08, 2007: 04:39 AM ESTNow I know why the sudden dip in HSI on Friday. As usual, price always move before news. This is so classic. On the chart, HSI failed right at resistance. After the holidays I am looking for trades. This should be my own greed and gambling addiction. I feel so uncomfortable not having any vested interest in the market. I looked at stocks, but to me it seems like not a good time to get vested in stocks as of now. I screened and my system yielded no stocks. Remembering what Jesse Livermore said, "There is a time to buy, a time to sell and also a time to stand aside." By focussing on HSI, I want to be able to form an opinion on it's direction to trade. HSI should be supported at 27,500 thereabts. Even Dow Jones look rip for a pull back first. Same for STI. Recalling what I read about astrology analysis, 22nd Dec has a major turn date. It will be useful to track the movement up to
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