Owner: The Art Of Growing Money URL:http://growmoney.blogspot.com/ Join Date: Tue, 08 Aug 2006 10:24:58 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: Welcome to my trading journal! A place where I share my Psychology, Money Management & Trading system on trading shares in the Singapore Stock Market. Fellow shares enthusiasts are welcomed to share thoughts too. I hope my posts will be educational to you Site statistics:Click here
Rebound silenced 2007-03-07 15:30:00 HSI, Nikkei and STI all closed weaker in tantem after a strong rally yesterday. A reminder to all, in bull market, we want to see the day close higher, in bear market, the day will close lower. A reversal will not be strong unless it goes through a series of natural rallies and then declines to form a bottom. It is at this bottom we will launch into a new bull cycle. However as there is little or no news until the next earnings in July, market may range trade and the lowest level I eye will be 2880. Otherwise I will be looking out for signs of a bottom. Those interested, I implore you to read through my archives of May'06 to Aug'06. It will give you a good feel of how a bottom will be formed. There is a possibility we test and break 3k psychological level by Friday. With HSI's 19k and Nikkei's 17k giving way, once DJ's 12k give way, no chance at all for STI.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyrigh Read more:Rebound
Market showed true colours 2007-03-14 06:38:00 The market rebounded spectacularly for 5 days before another rout took place. The rebound was noted with lesser volume on the way up which to many wasn't going to sustain. But the rise caught many in complacent mode and once again we tanked this time lead by US subprime loans problems. Nikkei and HangSeng lead us into the red and this selling erased all the gains in the rebound, classic! Fear not, this is how a bottom should be formed. Let us be patience and wait for it to form.STI on the daily: We have now met resistance at the first gap and reversed to a lower high recorded. Now this is what can happen:1) STI finds support at the last low near 2960s thereabts.2) STI finds support along 100MA.3) STI test 2880 thereabts.4) Most unlikely to happen is we rebound tomolo to close the gap.HSI 18,618 is major support, breaks that, up the lorry....The rebound over the last 5 days left me looking silly as stocks threatened to resume uptrend without me onboard. My opinion of the market after Read more:Market
Dow Jones Against All Odds 2007-03-15 12:22:00 With Asia and Europe facing sell off, many didn't gave Dow Jones
a chance. It once traded at -130 and amazingly close up 50 points. I went to sleep thinking next day my PW will be spectacular. It was indeed a rude shock to see DJ up by 50 points. This goes to show why risk management is important. Despite high chance of Dow Jones plunging, expect the unexpected! Hence no matter how strongly I feel about the direction, i made it a habit to still trade within my money management rules so that when something like this happens, it's just another loss. Chartered was sold yesterday and I kept Noble. Texas Instrument gave a bleak outlook and I didn't like the risk involved with Tech counters. I added HSI CW at close because I cannot ignore the strong closing of DJ, it formed an amazing "tui" right on 12K support. Under tremendous selling pressure and able to close positive, I anticipate follow through buying tonight and the PPI numbers will be friendly. This HSI CW is only for a
Bottom not found 2007-03-18 15:40:00 The 3rd week has passed after the sudden meltdown and the market still hasn't found bottom. I will not be in a hurry to pick up stocks yet. Using the simplest form of chart reading.... bad news..descending triangles everywhere. I fear a further break to the downside. This is highly possible given that we do not have any incentive to head up. Tuesday, Wednesday brings about volatility....Fed will be meeting up. With market already taken a beating, i doubt they dare to anyhow talk...if they dare to raise rate, global market no eyes see. China has increased rate over the weekend, it will be interesting to see how the market will take it. Jurong Tech looks very weak and seems like more downside to at least 0.80 or 0.775. A quick trade saw me profiting from my HSI CW. Gosh it feels good to win again! It will be like a boxing match for now until I see a market bottom. Boxing match as in, hitting and doging the blows. In trading we call it swing trading. Otherwise it's commonly Read more:Bottom
Key Take Aways From Investment Talk 2007-03-21 16:09:00 For those of you who weren't at the NTUC Auditorium for the Investment talk organised by Lim & Tan Securities, let me share with you the key take aways. Very simple, 3 main sectors to focus on, Construction, Marine & Offshore and Financial Services. These are sectors I heard from SIAS Research speaker Terence Wong. Of course the talk is more than that but my brain can only remember these...keke i salivates at the free information! keke As for my own 40 mins, I introduce Technical analysis to the audience with some key concepts in a straight forward manner. Nothing much.GrowMoney QuickPicksSwiberNOLAt close today, I bought HSICW for quickie trade again. Currently I'm holding Noble and STIPW. The all important speech by Big Ben is ready to set the direction for market. We had rebounded nicely and i notice, everytime we threatened to the downside, we are matched with bargain hunters equally hungry to buy the shares. Volume though low, but I keep noticing how individual stocks or
STI Rising Wedge Negated 2007-04-03 17:23:00 We broke out of STI's rising wedge formation and it will be good if we can close above it by Friday. We are now very near it's apex and this formation should be negated. Market direction currently points up, pretty inline with global markets.Never argue with the market. I will never forget this important philosophy in trading. When I was wrong twice in March about being bearish. I wasted no time in dumping the PWs and went long. Loads of philosophies in trading are very useful and somehow, they are already well drilled into me after so many years. Gosh, time really flies, getting older and older, soon no more late twenties! cham ah! hahahaI fancy the charts of UTAC, very close to it's 20 days' low, pretty good risk reward to the upside. GrowMoney Growth FundCSCYongNamNoble GrpSwiberSeksunUnionMetToday bought UnionMet after I think it is a normal pull back after a breakout.The popular Cracking the Stock Market Code is open for intake 11! lai lai interested party please get mor Read more:Rising
, Wedge
Penny Stocks rule 2007-04-12 18:23:00 I remember posting the key takeaways from an investment talk which I was part of. Construction was mentioned together with gas and oil plays. It is no surprise we are going to see new highs for construction companies again. While I miss their growing up days, after I reset my portfolio, i began to build around this sector. The current theme seems to be ulu stocks... stocks that are very very cheap and they breakout like crazy. Trading these stocks need to be nimble. Index tanked more than 1 percent and yet my portfolio made money. This is because I had stayed away from index stocks prefering to focus on the construction sector where my portfolio is at least 50% vested.Alot of people has been asking me why do I blog so infrequent these days. Super busy these days running around. But here i am again! :D haha And not forgetting the quickpicks!!! :DYes my UnionMet reported a set of lousy report. Let's see do i need to cut position tomorrow. I am still holding onto sicksun read Read more:Penny
, Stocks
Sister stock trading 2007-04-15 17:29:00 Swiber and Swissco playing like sister stocks. I personally like to trade on stocks like this. If you compare the 2 charts, you will find that it has the same pattern. Why do they have the same pattern and price actions? My dear friends, stock market is a very complex place and I leave it to your imagination what had happened as I only dare mention behind closed doors.. kekeSwiber: A reminiscence of Cosco. I received question why am i holding on to Swiber ? Other than it's in the sector which I am in favour of doing well this year, simply the stock didn't break the trendline. I have said many times, technical analysis is not difficult. It is only difficult if you are trying to find the holy grail. The experienced ones will tell you, no way would you find a sure win T.A reading. The simpler you use T.A, the easier it is. If you don't see an obvious positive sign, just sit aside. Jesse Livermore said, " Only fools believe they should trade daily, big money is made by sittin
It could have been better 2007-04-26 14:35:00 Instead of setting the regional markets on fire, we finish slow and steady. With DJ breaking 13k and staying above, the first part of my anticipation came true. However HSI didn't burst the resistance and closing below it. According to my experience with HSI, if on song, it will easily break the resistance. It just didn't happen today. I promptly took my profit at resistance when it failed the second time during intraday. This is despite that i think DJ can still close up tonight. Today's weakness echoes what i have observed last 3 days.....a hesistant market. Leaving the HSICW overnight to bet on a open rally tomorrow is called gambling. To execute a trade according to a plan is called trading. One reason for the lethargic markets, everyone has the fear of a market plunge. Again most breakouts failed and follow through buying is rare unlike few weeks ago.ChinaShares which had gone quiet for weeks appeared in my hitlist tonight. They may start to party soon. Also noted pr Read more:better
Dow Jones Tested 13k 2007-04-25 16:57:00 I hope tomorrow morning when I open my eyes, I see 13,050 printed on ChannelNewsAsia! HSI 21k Boleh!!!Precision Engineering/Manufacturing, the hidden industry that keeps appearing in my hit list everynight. Nan dao semi conductors really salt fish turn around? I recall sending an email to alert my 2 email groups abt possible turn in the semiconductor industry yesterday and today once again after screening the market, i am seeing a couple of precision related companies. Bought StraitsAsia today after receiving a signal last night. Also bought HSI CW the day before when HSI was trading at 20,400 support. The thing about trading index is, we need to know what is happening globally. I see strength in US. For STI, very resilience. Infact i could feel the whole global market is waiting for something to happen. It was a very tight range trading for the last 3 days with neither the bulls nor bears winning. I doubt we are breaking down. Let us break upwards before cutting down...this w Read more:Dow Jones
A feeble Rally 2007-04-23 13:18:00 I observed construction companies are currently held off and did not make much progress. Also, the top volume list today saw many penny shares do not have the same follow through buying as compared to previous weeks. Tonight's homework will be to observe the last time penny shares started to look feeble in their rally and what happens after that.Regional indices too closed weak after a gap up open. This is not good. If US is to fumble tonight, we may experience more downside in coming days. Trading in April and May is always tricky. It is not hard to observe that most breakout fails spectacularly. Again proof of no follow through buying. Property sector, which leads us into historical highs are showing bearish divergence. Livermore says, when the leaders start to show cracks, the second stringers won't be able to support it for long. Last thursday's 100 points selloff did not kill STI and we rebounded. But this is a warning to me.Important Events this weekApr 24Consumer C Read more:Rally
Money no enough 2007-05-02 14:34:00 I can only salivate at all the quickpicks. How to buy all??? While i am able to get into noble, swiber and straitsasia, but i also missed hobee, CAO, FerroChina! argh!!!! Just have to be thankful that i have some of them. The best part is, instituitions issue reports on my purchases after i bought them. Are they using the same system as me??? hmm.... keke I am tempted to contra...but that will be deviating from my trading system that has worked consistently well for me. Discipline! The 3 stages of trading... Survive....Consistent Profits....Massive Profits. I am now at stage 2....patience...soon i'll arrive at stage 3. The worse and most stupid thing is to self sabotage my system now.HSI tanked and didn't show the same bulllishness as DJ. This is not insync. I see this as warning. Why does Nikkei and HSI not joining DJ in testing new high? Either we are having a great opportunity to load up HSI now and awaits the test at 21K or... the unthinkable... DJ to corrects which Read more:Money
STI Tangos with Historical High 2007-05-03 17:51:00 Another new record was achieved today before pulling back for a weaker close. HSI threatens the resistance at 20,800 tomorrow, however since it is a Friday, maybe not much incentive to close above that. 1 good reason for today's good run could be due to Nikkei's absence. It has been a party pooper whole of last week when DJ broke 13K. I will update HSI chart again tomorrow morning because the data only gets updated at 7am for previous closing.Something about Cosco. I observed that while many stocks has recovered from the Feb corrections and went on to test new highs, Cosco was not one of them. That is why I have not boarded back onto it all this while. Suspicions were later confirmed with a poorer than expected Q1 results. I have been following Cosco for years (it doubled my money during last run) so far this is the first time it has posted a rather slower growth. Time to watch out. The nasty surprises always hit us when the going is still good. Think about the IT bubble d Read more:Historical
Threading by the fine line of cautiousness 2007-05-10 16:57:00 After a splendid opening on Monday where we opened into virgin land only to close lower and Tuesday echoed. All these despite US breaking new high after high, we seem to have dislodge from the association with Dow Jones. STI has now covered all the gaps created last week and this is healthy! It found gap support at 3409 thereabouts. Come to think of it, the cycle was pretty obvious, sector by sector they took turns to rally. We had banking shares then followed by offshore and constructions. So far property seems to be neglected. As for Tech sector, wait for next reincarnation....they never fails to disappoint.Every rally attempt so far has been muted. I think all thanks to the forums and newspapers that most of the people are very wary of what can happen in May. They are right, we are scaling at such dizzying height and anytime if any market trips, it can lead to global panic selling and thus creating a self fulfilled prophecy of "see i told you so, May confirm tua lao". There Read more:Threading
Managing your risk 2007-05-16 15:04:00 The game show, "Deal or no Deal" is a perfect showcase of human psychology when we come to risk management! It can be applied to trading. They increase their risk inorder to maximise the prize money, just like traders when we hope that our counters will run higher and higher! The key word here is hope! A no no in trading. If we succeed, it's not because we are good. It is because we are lucky. Thus this how many mistook luck for skill. And when the market tanks, it's no surprise we will moan in pain. We want consistency delivered out of a sound trading system and not luck. Another common mistake many made is, they went there empty handed and thus they can afford to take higher risk. This is not true, they have "sure money" offered to them to leave the game. Again, this is familiar to traders, how many times have we experienced a profitable position turned into losses? Profits on the table is yours! Take it! What i have learnt over the years is to manage my risk. One of t
Bears fired first salvo 2007-05-24 09:16:00 I was getting bored and internally i can feel my patience tested over the last few weeks. My stocks are not appreciating as much as I would like. I see many stocks seducing me. This is exactly the same situation as when I began trading many years ago. They will seduce me, I would have dumped my winners and get into them. Then they will dump me at a loss and i look stupid. That's why I have been staying discipline to my trading system and rules. I dripped blood and swear that I will never trade like I did in the past. Since then, I have been trading consistently with profits, knowing exactly what to do and when to do it. I call it a Paradigm Shift. I am and will be away for the next 5 days attending National Achievers Congress plus World Internet Summit. No, I am not one of the speakers if that's what you are thinking, this time round i'm learning about wealth creation! Maybe I have never shared this openly, but I will take this chance. Stock Market is only a place for me Read more:Bears
Consolidating positions 2007-05-22 09:17:00 HSI shys away from closing above 21k yet again and I am disappointed. My heart dropped when it tanks more than 200 points by mid day. However a strong rally by Nikkei ensures HSI stays afloat. I noted that HSI has been trading sideways at this level. Whenever they threaten to break downwards, it is well supported. However it must close above 21k soon, otherwise I see it as a scenario where offloading is happening around 21k. I am vested in the call warrants.STI while it is heading up, i noted the RSI is not showing strength, staying flat as we head up. I am not going to add new stocks. If I have to buy, i will more likely book profits from a sale to fund the purchase. I need to see 2 situations developed. Firstly, maket to trade sideways and stop heading higher for next month. This is healthy and a way to shakeout weak holders and pave way for another record. Lastly, market should corrects and then build base. LottsVision was sold the next day after there was no follow up. Read more:positions
Bulls hold steady for now....nervy 2007-05-28 09:33:00 Nothing has changed over the years. There is up there is down....the sooner you are able to step aside and look at the market from the outside, it cannot be more clearer. I was away for at least 5 days and I know the market pulled back. However base on technical analysis standpoint, still looks healthy! I stopped buying many weeks ago and began consolidating my positions as we head higher in anticipation of this pull back. Now that it has happened, I know exactly my next steps! This is why it is so important to have a trading system in place and not trade the market randomly. I was at burger king @ Expo where I overheard a conversation where a man called his broker to pay off his MARGIN loss! With the rebound in the market today, i'm sure he is feeling very frustrated for cutting loss unnecessary. Margin....a double edged sword.It is AMAZING! My technical analysis course (CSMC) intake 13 had closed 1 week in advance! Woah! I am simply very excited and thankful to the 30 who
Market Directions 2007-06-06 10:00:00 Tonight I studied the possibility of where the market can find support. This is because after the Shanghai Market
corrections, HSI remains vulnerable and we saw US side under going the same corrections. Like I always said, when big brothers overseas sneezes, STI won't stay up for long. Hence I will be watching closely these support levels and selling/buying strength. It should be noted leaders of the market remained weak and we have been going up leaded by second class market citizens. Classic setup of a corrections by theory. Following are charts of 3 regional markets where I participated in. I recall my article on May 22nd, weakness was already seen and felt. My strategy was not to be agressive in buying. My anticipations was a sideway market. Hence I didn't trade much and you seldom see me post articles. While I think we should have corrections, we do not need to tank big time. Market can always trade sideways to wash out weak holders and squeeze contra players. As I am Read more:Directions
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