Owner: Oval Office 2008 URL:http://www.ovaloffice2008.com Join Date: Sun, 03 Sep 2006 13:58:16 -0500 Rating:1 Site Description: Independent, impartial, non-partisan blog on the next US Presidential election, from a blogger in Britain. Site statistics:Click here
Polling data - some housekeeping 2006-10-20 12:55:00 That poll I've been running on the side of the page was looking a little stale, so I've finally got around to changing it.
You may recall, I asked, after Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, which state you thought would be keeping us up all night on election day in 2008. 496 of you voted, and here's what you said:
Ohio (137 votes, 28%)Florida (73, 15%)Pennsylvania (66, 13%)Nowhere (45, 9%)Somewhere else (34, 7%)Michigan (33, 7%)Nevada (24, 5%)Iowa (19, 4%)New Mexico (18, 4%)Wisconsin (18, 4%)Minnesota (15, 3%)New Hampshire (8, 2%)Oregon (6, 1%)
I chose the states that I did because they were the most marginal in the 2004 election - won by either Bush or Kerry by a margin of 5.0 percentage points or less, plus Florida (where Bush's winning margin was 5.1%) for old time's sake. Ohio was, in fact, the sixth most marginal state in 2004, after Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Given the current state of the Ohio Republican Party, I'd personally be inclin Read more:Polling
, housekeeping
(Still) catching up - 18-24 September - Steak frys to pork chops 2006-10-19 02:16:00 Let's pick things up where we last left them, with Barack Obama in Iowa. As this Chicago Tribune story in the Kansas City Star reports, Obama was the featured speaker at Iowa Senator Tom Harkin's annual steak fry in Indianola. In case you thought there was no correlation between speaking at the Harkin steak fry and harbouring presidential ambitions, let me remind you that last year's speaker at the event was John Edwards. Some in the crowd wanted Obama to run in 2008, the Tribune said. Others thought he wasn't yet ready - much like Obama himself.Plenty of prospective presidential candidates were on the campaign trail supporting their fellow partisans in mid-term races. Associated Press, picked up by the Contra Costa (Calif.) Times, found Bill Frist and Mitt Romney at separate events, supporting Republicans in South Carolina. AP, this time carried by Providence, RI, Fox affiliate WPRI-12 also reported that Romney gave $1 million to Charlie Crist's campaign for Governor of Florida. Read more:September
, Steak
, chops
CNN Pipeline - Up-to-the-minute 'news' about nothing 2006-10-12 17:36:00 I was hoping that CNNPipeline
would show Mark Warner's press conference and his statement withdrawing from the 2008 presidential race. Here's what is on Pipeline's four channels right now:
Live coverage of the UN General Assembly.Live footage from the camera point in the lobby of the UN building, where absolutely nothing is happening.Live footage from the camera point outside the House Ethics Committee room, where absolutely nothing is happening.A programme about a man customising his Hummer.
Thank goodness we have rolling news channels like CNN to make us believe that there's actually less news going on in the world than there really is.
Warner withdrawal moves Bayh up in Rankings 2006-10-12 17:31:00 I've updated the Oval Office 2008 Rankings
to take in the impact of Mark Warner
's withdrawal
from the race. The more eagle-eyed among you may have noticed a previous change to the rankings made a couple of weeks ago, with Warner slipping from second to third, and John Edwards rising to second. (On the GOP side, incidentally, you'll notice George Allen's plunge from third to sixth, for obvious reasons).
Taking Warner's place in the third spot is the person who I believe may benefit most from Warner's departure - Indiana Senator Evan Bayh who rises from fifth. Russ Feingold stays in fourth, with everyone else moving up one place to fill the gap left above them.
http://www.ovaloffice2008.com/rankings.htm
Read more:moves
BREAKING NEWS: Warner issues written statement 2006-10-12 17:24:29 The following statement
from Mark Warner
is now on the Forward Together PAC website:
Nine months ago, I left the office of Governor in Virginia. I was immenselyproud of what we had accomplished. We faced historic challenges and got realresults.
Upon leaving office, I committed all my time and energy to ForwardTogether because we need a new direction in America.
Everywhere I've traveled, I found hope that we could turn this countryaround. That Americans are looking for leaders who at this moment of enormouschallenge for our country can actually bring us together and get things done.
I've heard that regardless of the depth of dismay at the directionPresident Bush has taken our country, rank and file Democrats are energized, andwant ours to be a party of hope, not of anger.
I am especially proud of the work we've done in supporting those kinds ofcandidates throughout America.
We got a lot done.
Forward Together has contributed more money this year to Democraticcandidates an Read more:written
, BREAKING NEWS
BREAKING NEWS: Warner could seek Senate seat, VP slot, Governor re-run? 2006-10-12 17:19:19 The Washington Post is speculating that Warner
's decision not to run for President "could position [him] to be a vice presidential pick for the eventual Democratic nominee."
"Or it could allow him to seek Virginia Republican John Warner's U.S. Senate
seat if Warner retires in 2008," the Post adds. "The ex-governor could also run for his old job again."
None of which would seem to be consistent with the desire for a 'real life' ascribed to him by other reports.
Sources: Warner Won't Run for Presidency in '08 - washingtonpost.com
Read more:BREAKING NEWS
, Governor
BREAKING NEWS: Warner wanted a "real life" 2006-10-12 17:14:51 Associated Press has updated its story on Mark Warner
's withdrawal from the 2008 Presidential race. In this latest version, here carried by USA Today, Warner adviser Jim Margolis told AP: "This wasn't the right time in his life. He would have to put everything else on the backburner in order to run for president and do it right, and he wants a real life."
The decision followed lengthy discussions between Warner and his family and advisers "over the past few months," AP says.
If anyone out there has any idea what a 'real life' actually is, I for one would love to find out.
USATODAY.com - Va.'s Warner won't run for president in '08
Read more:BREAKING NEWS
, wanted
BREAKING NEWS: Warner's family didn't want him to run 2006-10-12 17:07:00 The big question surrounding Warner
's withdrawal from the presidential race may have been - at least partially - answered. ABC News here reports that "Warner simply decided with his family that he didn't want to make the commitment of time that would be required to run."
"Associates of Warner say his decision not to seek the office is based solely on personal considerations," ABC continues. "His family was said to be unenthusiastic about the sacrifices involved in making the race."
All of which seems perfectly reasonable and understandable.
ABC also tells us that the announcement will be made at 11.30am ET - about half an hour from now.
Political Radar
Read more:BREAKING NEWS
BREAKING NEWS: Mark Warner to announce he will not run for President in 2008 2006-10-12 16:53:23 I thought I'd interrupt my efforts to recap September's news for this major 2008 news story currently being run by Associated Press.
AP reports that former Virginia Democratic Governor Mark Warner
will announce shortly that he will not be running for President
in 2008. "The reason for Warner's announcement was not immediately known," says AP.
For 2008-watchers, this is clearly a huge story. Warner - until recently ranked #2 in the Oval Office 2008 Democratic Rankings - was clearly a viable presidential candidate with the potential to win the nomination or, at the very least, last well beyond the earliest primaries. His decision not even to enter the race raises many questions, some of which he may answer when he makes his statement (which AP unhelpfully says will come in the "late morning", without giving a specific time). First and foremost: why? Did he calculate that he couldn't win? Has he had a better offer of work somewhere else? (Although the perks of being the leade Read more:BREAKING NEWS
Catching up - 11-17 September - The things people say and write 2006-10-08 01:28:00 Well, we're no more than about three or four weeks out of date now - which, by my standards, is pretty exciting. Without further ado, let's continue our erratic plunge forward.John Edwards appears to be gradually broadening his message. Through most of 2005, it was poverty, poverty, poverty all the time. That got re-focused slightly with the (related) issue of the minimum wage. Now, after a slight detour to prove his anti-war credentials for the party's activists, Edwards is talking healthcare. It seems to me that he's building up a little portfolio of major policy areas by focusing on each one for a month or two at a time. I may be reading too much into it - after all, his appearance in San Jose, Calif., was in front of a healthcare workers' union. "Edwards said health care is one of the top and most important issues facing the country," said San Francisco's KCBS 740AM. A good thing to say to the largest healthcare union in the largest state in the Union.Similarly, it's a good Read more:things
, people
, September
Catching up - 21-27 August - It mostly seems to be about polls 2006-09-24 16:25:00 I know what you're thinking - this whole business of catching up more quickly by doing one-week-per-post would be a whole lot more effective if I did more than one-post-per-week. What can I say - some weeks I'm sleepier than others.
Before I plunge into another week's stories, a couple of asides. First of all, I received a nice, friendly email from Charles at Michigan for McCain the other day, and so he gets the usual Oval Office 2008 response to nice, friendly emails - namely, a 'hello' and a link. Secondly, the Oval Office 2008 Button Poll continues to gather momentum, although I am struck by the fact that the leading contenders from each party are both people who are not even planning to run in 2008. Barack Obama tops the Democratic list by a margin of nearly four-to-one over virtually everybody else, and by more than three-to-one over second placed Evan Bayh. Sales of Republican candidate items are a good deal slower ('we've got more sense,' a Republican might say; 'yeah, Read more:August
It's time to add Obama to the rankings 2006-10-28 22:04:00 I've been away for the last week - hence the lack of catching up on the catching up. I returned this evening to find that, in the last seven days, nearly 100 Barack Obama
items were bought from the Oval Office 2008 Shop - a huge volume compared to normal trading. In the Oval Office 2008 Button Poll, Obama now has more votes than the rest of the entire Democratic field put together. Meanwhile, I get a couple of emails asking me why I haven't mentioned Obama's comments last Sunday that he was considering entering the 2008 race. Because I was on a boat on England's Oxford Canal is the perhaps unexpected reason why - but a quick Google search reveals the news story that I had missed.
Senator Obama is clearly leaving the door open for a presidential run in 2008. He is now at least as committed to the process as Wes Clark, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack or Tom Daschle, all of whom are included in the Oval Office 2008 Rankings. I have resisted including in the rankings those who might attr
Catching up - 25 September - 1 October - Really getting into midterm fever now 2006-10-20 13:31:00 We're getting heavily into midterm election campaigning now, and for 2008 Presidential candidates that means getting out there and making friends who might be useful to you in a few months' time. A brief rundown of who was where during this week finds Wes Clark in northern Kentucky (Cincinnati Enquirer), Pennsylvania (Delaware County Times) and Connecticut (North-Central Connecticut Journal Enquirer); John Edwards in Wisconsin (Channel 3000 WISC TV); Mitt Romney in Oregon, where he handed over a $500,000 cheque for Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron Saxton (Associated Press on Boston's WHDH-7); John McCain in Kentucky (AP in the Lexington Herald-Leader); Mark Warner (before his announcement that he wouldn't be running for president) in South Carolina (AP in the Columbia State); Bill Richardson in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Maryland (AP in the Santa Fe New Mexican); Hillary Clinton in Maryland (Washington Post); Rudy Giuliani in Florida (Tallahassee Democrat); and J Read more:September
, October
Obama enters Democratic rankings at #3 2006-10-29 23:10:00 I put Barack Obama
in third place in my Democratic
rankings. Let me explain why.
I agonised long and hard over this decision. I read and heard what some others were saying. I also re-watched Obama's 2004 Democratic National Convention speech on which virtually all of the excitement around him is based. It was a very, very good speech - but it was good because it was well written and immaculately delivered. The sentiments expressed in the speech - of a united nation guided by its founding ideals - could have been, and regularly are, expressed in political speeches everywhere in America, by politicians of almost any persuasion. It was 'motherhood and apple pie', masterfully delivered.
No other candidate generates the kind of excitement that Obama generates. Hillary did once, but doesn't seem to any more. McCain may come closest on the Republican side. But the reason more established candidates do not attract screaming hordes of adoring fans is because they, and their supporters, ha
Duncan Hunter and John Kerry - If they both end up as the nominees, I'll put mustard on my laptop and eat it 2006-11-03 00:15:00 You'll note the resumed lull in updates - bit bogged down with various other bits and pieces, including plenty of background research for the Midterm Election coverage I'll be presenting on Tuesday on LBC News 1152 in London. I seem to more or less get away with not really knowing much about anything on this blog, but on the radio people expect higher standards, so I might as well be minimally prepared. Today I discovered that the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Idaho is called Butch Otter, which I guess may not be amusing in Idaho, but here in England it would raise a smile.
I am trying still to keep on top of basic housekeeping, such as the Shop (still Obama and then the rest) and the Rankings. There are two significant changes to note in the Rankings this week - one for each party.
On the Republican side, we have good news for New York Governor George Pataki. He may not have moved up in my estimation, but the announcement on Monday from California Rep. DuncanHunter
that h Read more:Kerry
, mustard
, Duncan Hunter
A Democratic night 2006-11-08 10:13:00 I've just finished my overnight stint on the radio on LBC News 1152 here in London, and what a fascinating night it has been. Thank you to anyone who tuned in - either on the radio here or online from somewhere else. I hope you enjoyed it - do let me know what you thought of it. I'm hoping to find a way to put the whole show on this site at some point in some manageable format for anyone who might be interested. My particular thanks to Washington Times columnist Barry Casselman, a visitor to this blog, for his contribution to the programme.
It has, clearly, been a great night for Democrats. Without question, they have scored a resounding victory. What the result actually means in terms of the direction voters want the country to take is a complex question. The differing motivations of voters, and the balance of local and national influences, create a complicated picture.
Determining the impact on the 2008 race is similarly challenging. Let me offer some preliminary thoughts.
First Read more:Democratic
Russ Feingold buoyed but still not decided 2006-11-09 16:43:00 Wisconsin Democratic Senator Russ Feingold
"said he's closer to making a decision on a presidential race following this week's congressional elections, but still hasn't decided if the election results have made him more or less likely to run for president," reports Associated Press, on Green Bay CBS affiliate WFRV-5.
"It pushes me in both directions, and I'm going to sit down and think about exactly what I want to be doing over the next couple of years," Feingold told AP. He left the door well and truly open by observing that the anti-war sentiment expressed by voters on Tuesday "gives me the sense that what I've been talking about on this would resonate with the voters of this country, if I decided to run for president."
Fenigold indicated he would make his decision before the end of the year.
George Allen ready to concede in Virginia? 2006-11-09 15:56:00 After Tuesday's excitement and my all-night (and most-of-the-day) radio performance, I've been asleep a lot, and am now away from home - all of which means that I have yet to update the Rankings by removing from the Republican side Virginia
Senator GeorgeAllen
. As I said before, even if a recount shifted the Virginia vote his way, his presidential deams would still be over.
AP and Fox News are now reporting that they have heard from sources close to Allen that the Senator "doesn't intend to 'drag this out'". Whilst leaving the door open to a recount request if a last-minute development changes the picture, it does look as if Allen is preparing to concede to Democrat Jim Webb. George Allen is not Richard Nixon - at least, not in the sense that he has the presence and recognition that would allow him to come back from this defeat and consider a run for higher office at some future time when the dust has finally settled. I wouldn't expect to see a groundswell of support for a Read more:ready
Tom Vilsack to launch presidential bid - AP 2006-11-09 15:35:00 After a night like Tuesday, why rest on your laurels? The completion of the midterms (at least everywhere outside Virginia) means that the 2008 starting gun has been fired.
First off the blocks is Iowa Democratic Governor Tom Vilsack
. According to Associated Press (carried by CNN), Vilsack "is expected to officially launch his 2008 presidential campaign Thursday by filing documents with the Federal Election Commission."
According to the statement that AP says will be released later today, Vilsack says: "Americans sent a clear message on Tuesday. They want leaders who share their values, understand their needs and respect their intelligence. That's what I've done as governor of Iowa and that's what I intend to do as president."
I love empty political statements like that. They're so flexible - you can use them in any situation. Vilsack could have said the same thing if the Democrats had lost on Tuesday. He could have said it after the end of American Idol, if he wanted. You can u Read more:Tom Vilsack
Massachoosies* don't choose Kerry or Romney for president 2006-11-09 17:07:00 In Massachusetts it would seem they're not looking for a local hero to run for President. Neither Democratic Senator John Kerry
nor outgoing Governor MItt Romney
appeals, according to Associated Press in the Boston Herald. AP says that its exit polling showed that "about two-thirds of voters surveyed yesterday in Massachusetts said neither man should succeed President Bush."
Most of those who didn't want to see Romney on the ticket voted for Democrat Deval Patrick for Governor over Republican Lieutenant-Governor Kerry Healey. However, those who didn't like the idea of President Kerry were evenly split between Patrick and Healey voters.
*What is the proper word for a resident of Massachusetts? I'd love to know.
Read more:choose
Colorado results give Denver the edge for Democratic convention? 2006-11-10 12:58:00 When the Democrats choose the venue for their 2008 National Convention, what will take priority: mundane matters such as hotel room availability and the capacity of the local balloon industry; or political symbolism? The Denver
Post argues for the latter - not surprisingly, since it would favour Denver over New York City.
New York City has little positive symbolism for Democrats. A long-standing Democratic
bastion - albeit one that has had sort-of Republican mayors for a decade - there is arguably nothing to be gained, and potentially someting to be lost, by selecting this powerhouse of northeastern liberalism. (By that logic, of course, Boston in 2004 wasn't the smartest decision in the world - and the outcome of that election potentially bears the point out).
Denver, however, has loads of positive messages for Democrats. It symbolises the gains they have made - and no doubt feel they can continue to make - in the rapidly growing west. Supporting a Denver convention, New Mexic Read more:Colorado
, results
If you thought I had a low opinion of politicians, listen to Evan Bayh 2006-11-10 12:17:00 In mulling over Tom Vilsack's remarks (see earlier blog post) about sharing Americans' values, I wondered if one such value was a general contempt for politicians
. Perhaps this sentiment is behind the observation reportedly made by Indiana Senator Evan Bayh in outlining his planned timetable for making a decision on 2008.
Associated Press, carried by Cincinnati Fox affiliate WXIX-19, reports that Bayh "says he'll wait until Christmas before deciding whether to run for president in 2008."
A factor in Bayh's thinking, it would seem, is the time it will take for politics to settle down after the events of Tuesday night. "Bayh said there's likely to be gloating among Democrats and retaliation by Republicans," AP reports. Gloating? Retaliation? An unduly cynical prediction from the Senator, surely!
Read more:thought
, opinion
President Frist not an exciting prospect for Tennesseans 2006-11-10 14:19:00 After Massachusetts voters apparently rejected the idea of either John Kerry or Mitt Romney pursuing the presidency (see earlier post), the same round of Associated Press exit polling on Tuesday found Tennesseans underwhelmed by the prospect of a Frist
White House effort.
Tennessee voters (who, you'll recall, didn't think that much of Al Gore either) said by a margin of 44%-37% that Frist would not make a good president, according to this AP report carried by Nashville's WTVF-5.
"The remaining 19 per cent did not answer," AP says, without speculating on why. Perhaps they doubted the seriousness of the question.
Read more:President
, exciting
New poll: how do the declared candidates fare? 2006-11-10 13:32:00 Now that the midterms are done and dusted, it's time to change the reader poll on this site.
First, let's have a look at the results of the last poll. I asked: "What has the most influence on your vote in this year's midterm elections?" - you could make multiple choices from the issues listed. 406 of you voted, and here's what you said:
Iraq - 50 votes (12%)Government competence - 40 (10%)The economy - 38 (9%)Foreign policy - 37 (9%)Moral issues (e.g. abortion, gay marriage) - 34 (8%)Scandals and corruption - 30 (7%)Character/experience of candidates - 26 (6%)Party affiliation - 24 (6%)Tax cuts - 22 (5%)Terrorism - 20 (5%)Education - 20 (5%)Minimum wage - 18 (4%)Healthcare - 18 (4%)Gas prices - 11 (3%)Local issues - 9 (2%)Other - 9 (2%)
An interestingly broad range of choices - with even Iraq coming up a relevant for just 12% of you. Thanks for your votes.
The new poll is rather more frivolous. With Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack's formal entry into the presidential race this w
John McCain enters the arena 2006-11-11 12:21:00 Front-runners generally have the luxury of being able to enter a presidential race later than the rest - they've got less to prove and already have the name recognition and committed funding in place to fuel the campaign. The front-runners for 2008 - Hillary Clinton and John McCain
- also carry a certain amount of baggage, which may take some time to shed, or get used to carrying.Arizona Republican Senator McCain is, therefore, getting a head start on things. ABC News claims this story as an exclusive, which it probably was for a couple of hours: McCain will formally launch his campaign, with an exploratory committee, next week. Actually, as soon as the story stopped being exclusive, ABC News left the headline on its front page, but replaced it with a general look at 2008, which is very dull. Associated Press has the details, produced here by CBS News.The committee has a bank account already, AP says. That, actually, is as exciting as it gets. We don't know which bank the committee i Read more:arena
, John McCain
Don't say 'beaten' - Santorum's been 'liberated' 2006-11-11 16:15:45 "For Rick Santorum
, getting steamrolled on Tuesday by Democrat Bob Casey Jr. may prove to be liberating in a strange sort of way," suggests the Philadelphia Inquirer. That's right - the conservative Republican Pennsylvania Senator isn't defeated - he's free. Free to be the outspoken conservative he wants to be. Free not to worry about political considerations. Free to run for president, even.
I can't say I noticed Santorum ever feeling terribly constrained in his political expression while he was Senator - that, surely, was what made him so unpopular in moderate Pennsylvania. Anyway, the conventional wisdom that you can't lose a Senate election and go on to seriously contest a presidential election two years later may not apply to Santorum, according to some commentators.
"You will see a movement to draft Rick Santorum to run [in 2008]," former education secretary and drug tsar William Bennett told CNN on election night, the Inquirer reports. "The conservatives are strong
Those AP exit polls gloomy for Hagel and Gingrich, too 2006-11-12 13:27:16 I've mentioned how votes in Massachusetts aren't keen on Kerry or Romney for President, and how Tennesseans could do without a Frist bid for the White House. These stories are obviously a good earner for Associated Press - from whose exit polls they originate - because there are plenty more out there.Two that I haven't yet mentioned: in the Sioux City Journal, an AP story reporting that Nebraska Republican Senator Chuck Hagel
has the support of just 37% of Nebraskans for his presidential dream; and from AP in MSNBC, news that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich
, from Georgia, excites only 30% of Georgians for his 2008 run (thanks to LKLIII for flagging up this story in the Oval Office 2008 Forum).The story in the Sioux City Journal notes that a majority of New Yorkers now favour a Hillary Clinton presidential bid, and nearly two-thirds of Illinois voters think an Obama run would be swell.Sioux City Journal: Poll not high on Hagel for president
Read more:gloomy
Russ Feingold withdraws from 2008 Presidential race 2006-11-12 12:16:00 Well, the announcements are coming in thick and fast now. We've had Hunter, Vilsack and McCain confirm they are in. We've had Warner confirm he's out, with voters declaring Allen and Santorum effectively out, too.
Now Wisconsin Democratic Senator Russ Feingold
has declared that he will not run for President in 2008. Associated Press, picked up by CBS News, has the story - but Feingold's full letter to supporters can be found here, on the Progressive Patriots Fund PAC website. The gist of the letter, and of the news story, is that Feingold is excited at the prospect of being in the majority in the US Senate again, and feels he can achieve more as part of that majority than he could out on the road in what would be a long-shot presidential effort.
The letter is a great example of why Feingold supporters support Feingold - it has candour and wit. After detailing the positive response he had received to his opposition to many of the administration's policies on Iraq and terrorism, F Read more:Presidential
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