Owner: The Fantasy Baseball Generals URL:http://fantasybaseballgenerals.blogspot.com Join Date: Thu, 28 Jun 2007 17:29:24 -0500 Rating:0 Site Description: A blog devoted to illuminating the core theory and strategies of fantasy baseball. Site statistics:Click here
Fantasy All Stars--Outfielders 2007-07-02 19:29:00 The Generals' continuing look at All-Stars now turns to the OF. American League1. Ichiro Suzuki--He is one of my favorite players, and I have an autographed Ichiro ball even though I am a Yankee fan. One of my great memories is of sitting in the first row down the RF line at The Stadium, when a ball was hit into the corner. Ichiro picked it up and threw to second nailing the runner. Even from the stands you could hear the "whizzz" of the ball as it left his hand. For that alone he deserves the number one spot. Oh, that and his .348 BA with 19 SB. Ichiro is walking 8% of the time, making him even more dangerous; with his speed and 90% contact rate he is a cinch for a high BA. Amazingly, he hits only 26% of his balls in the air, a tremendous way for him to take advantage of his speed. As Bill James once said about Kenny Lofton, if you don't like him then you don't like baseball.2. Carl Crawford--Another one of my high stakes league studs; I think I spent more on him this year than I h
Fantasy All Stars--NL Starting Pitchers 2007-07-02 11:56:00 Our continuing look at our All-Stars.Continuing to hold my nose:It is a traditional truism that you would rather have an NL starter than an AL one. But not this year. Aside from the number one guy in the NL none of the others would crack the Al top five. As C.C. Sabathia said: "DH Schmee H." Feel free to look it up.1. Jake Peavy--The truest harbinger of things to come for him this year was the fact that I paid $30 for him in my high stakes auction, the first pitcher in ten years that I paid $30 for in an auction. He has been worth even more so far, but not a whole lot more, which is why you don't pay big money for pitchers. That will be another column. As an aside, the league has a 1400 IP minimum with an 11 man staff, so good innings can be tough to come by since it is 11 teams with 32 man rosters.Peavy so far probably is the best pitcher in baseball. 9-2 2.09 ERA 1.05 WHIP. 30% hit rate says he is for real, and his K/BB ratio of 3.8 with almost 10 K/9IP echoes this. I probably take Read more:Pitchers
The Generals' Fantasy All-Star Starting Pitchers AL 2007-07-02 10:33:00 A look at the top 8 AL pitchers for our All-Star team.It is a rule that all fantasy news sites and blogs must list their all-stars at this time of year. Though I really don't care for the process, as it is so subjective, it is a rule and our blogosphere credentials will be revoked if we don't do our own all-star list. Matt and I will be splitting duties for this, and I will be looking at Starting pitchers and Outfielders. So holding our collective noses, here are our picks for the Al starting pitchers, in order:1. C.C. Sabathia--clearly the class of the AL field in my view, though it helps his cause that he is the anchor of my high-stakes league staff. Forget the gaudy 12-2 record; his 8.1 K rate and 1.2 BB rate show he is at the top of the class, and with a 32% hit rate he actually should be a bit better. I sure hope for him to be even better in the second half. Cy Young, here he comes.2. Dan Haren--I know it is almost heresy to not have Johan number 2, but Haren deserves the spot. Read more:Pitchers
, Generals
The Worst Trades Ever in My League With Pat 2007-07-09 09:15:00 From Pat--Jeremy and I have been in a league together for about fifteen years. Fortunately, Jeremy keeps a list of every trade made. This is his look of the worst ones ever. For all of my legions of fans out there in the Blogosphere, I apologize for my absence since my much-talked about first blog entry. Seriously, stop with the phone calls and the email blasts – there is only so much of me to go around. I’ll hire a staff to answer your mail – it’ll be like a scene out of Miracle on 34th Street only without the Santa suit.This entry will be all about trading and I am going to refer to my extensive list of deals made in my carryover AL-only Roto league. We started this league in 1994 with seven owners – just in time for that gala event known as the 1994 Baseball Strike! Side note – I’ll never forget that weekend in 1994 as everyone watched their final baseball games until the next year I was among the muddy and sleepy at Woodstock 94 where I managed to not have the foresi Read more:League
Making a Large Trade 2007-07-07 09:16:00 Looking at the large trade and why it is usually bad strategy.In a prior post I discussed The Big Picture. One thing that I frequently hear on podcasts and see in message boards is the "large trade" where one owner is trading five guys for another five or sometimes more. In higher stakes leagues where there are strict salary caps, positional eligibility issues etc this can be a necessity. But in the garden variety mixed league it is much more likely that the owners making the deal are lazy or just not thinking about the process correctly. They have no idea about their Big Picture.As an example, on one podcast I recently heard a proposed deal that would send Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder and Barry Bonds for Gary Matthews, Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Delgado, with throw ins on both sides. On a message board I saw a trade where an owner was going to trade Miguel Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Aaron Hill, Freddy Sanchez and Xavier Nady (he also said he was in the middle of the pack in HR and SB)T Read more:Trade
Fantasy All Stars - Relievers 2007-07-12 14:31:00 Matt finishes the roundup of first half fantasy all stars with relievers.First, about the All Star game itself. I fell asleep. I was still exhausted after a loooong weekend and another loss at softball (we're 2-7, but "should" be 4-5 with 2 last inning collapses). I heard about the big controversy the next day - why didn't LaRussa pinch hit Pujols with the game on the line in the 9th? Listening to Chris "Mad Dog" Russo, on the Fan (WFAN 660am in NY), he said that Pujols appeared "annoyed" after the game that he wasn't used. Pujols then told reporters in St. Louis that he was in the training room getting "treatment" in the 9th inning and wasn't even dressed. WHAT? Do you think that Pujols would have been available if the Cards were in the running for a playoff spot? Or if another manager was in charge? How many more years in a row will the AL have the home field "advantage". We can debate about whether there is an advantage, but playing in an NL park takes one of the better bats out
Granderson for Haren--A Failure of Trade Policy 2007-07-12 08:15:00 Analysis of a trade proposal in a 12 team mixed league. In my 12 team mixed league I made a trade offer that I thought was fair: Granderson for Haren. The opponent responded by saying "sure, and I will give you Hawpe for Utley." Was I that far off??Haren has been great so far; but also lucky. My colleague on the Fantasy Focus blog at The Hardball Times just wrote a very interesting article using the LIPS metric to analyze the luckiest and unluckiest players. If you read my very first column on their blog I wrote about what it takes to be an "expert" and one of the requirements was being able to use strategies and information that others don't know and don't use. Derek is excellent at this, and his LIPS analysis is required reading.LIPS essentially stands for Luck Independent Pitching Stats, and was invented by David Gassko, a contributor to the site. Haren has been the second luckiest pitcher in the AL after Chad Gaudin this year. The below is NOT meant to suggest that Haren will col Read more:Trade
, Policy
Part Two of Jeremy's Worst Trades 2007-07-09 09:29:00 Part two of Jeremy's Worst Trades List 11 – also March 1997- Garret Anderson, Brian Simmons and 1998 4th rd pick (Traded and turned into Shane Mack) for Shane Mack and Bill Taylor – Memorable for the Joel Youngblood-style PTBNL situation. Mack for Mack. And not even Alison Mack. Enjoy that one, Smallville fans.12 – December 1997 - Jay Buhner, Dean Palmer, Luis Rivas, Jay Witasick and 1998 1st rd pick (Fred McGriff) for Manny Ramirez and Rick Helling. Only Witasick is currently playing of the group acquired for Manny. They would have been better off getting David Palmer. Or maybe Wayne Palmer. Heck, even Sherry Palmer would have worked. Although Wayne isn’t dead so that makes him a better choice. Boy, have I watched too much 24?13 - April 1998 - Magglio Ordonez for Rich Butler, Alex Sanchez and Brian Rose. Butler, Sanchez and Rose. Wow. It’s easier to just step up and let yourself get slapped in the face.14 – November 1998 - 1999 1st rd pick (Butch Huskey) and Roy Halladay Read more:Part Two
Proof of Rampant PED Use In That Sordid Era Of The 1960s. 2007-07-16 08:07:00 Proof that players in the 60's were taking performance enhancing drugs. So take that Tim McCarver!!I am not really sure how this missed the attention of The Mitchell Commission, hordes of baseball analysts and announcers, writers and those interested in the game, but my in depth perusal of statistics from the 1960's indicates clear and convincing evidence that the pitchers from the 60's were juicing on performance enhancing drugs.The evidence is so crystal clear; its obviousness is probably why it was so easily missed. Lets do our in-depth analysis by looking at batting averages in the 1960s as compared to the 1950s.In the AL the average league leader in the 1960s batted a lusty .324. Aside from Norm Cash in 1961 there wasn't even one AL batter that hit over .333. In the 1950s it was a very different story. In the 1950s the average league leader in the AL hit .347. This is a huge .023 drop from the 1950s to the 1960s.This result is no fluke. In the NL during the 1950s the average l Read more:Proof
, Rampant
Links to My Hardball Times Weekly Column for New Readers 2007-07-16 08:01:00 We are getting a lot more hits from various search engines. Most of these readers may not be aware that I am also writing a weekly column for The Hardball Times
Fantasy Focus Blog, especially since I haven't mentioned it in a while! The columns are more in depth and detailed versions of my blog posts, given that the format of a weekly column is a bit more formal. So, I will be posting those columns here going forward, and will be posting a link to the older ones below. And let me just say thanks to all of our readers! Here are links to my older articles: Some Bad Advice From An Alleged Expert Trading Lemons And Cherries Improving Your Results By Ignoring Them Being Jilted By My DiamondBacks Looking At Why New Draftees Are Poor Risks What It Takes To Be A Successful Fantasy GM Read more:Weekly
, Column
Ollie's "Back" 2007-07-15 19:06:00 Matt looks at "his guy", Oliver Perez.Born in August 1981 in Mexico, Oliver Perez debuted for the San Diego Padres (who signed him in 1999 as an amateur free agent) in 2002. Making 15 starts his rookie year, he struck out 94 batters in 90 innings and walked 48, with a 3.50 era and a 1.32 whip. During a "sophomore slump" year with a 5.38 era (with the same k and bb rate), he was traded with Jason Bay (and a ptbnl)for Brian Giles, Perez broke out in a big way in 2004 (when I auctioned him for $3 in the last year of my AL/NL auction keeper league (don't go there):GS IP H SO BB ERA WHIP30 196 145 239 81 2.98 1.15Baseball reference bullpen notes that Perez's fastball averaged 93 miles per hour and topped out at 95 in a "magical" season. Perez lost the magic touch in 2005. His fastball lost zip (down to 88-92 miles per hour, and worse, he lost command (perhaps due to a lack of confidence in blowing his fastball by hitters). Still, Perez struck out nearly a batter an inning but walked over Read more:Ollie
What If The Astros Drafted Derek Jeter?? 2007-07-18 21:34:00 What would have happened if the Astros
drafted DerekJeter
as Hal Newhouser insisted?? I try to quantify what would, and could, have occurred. Those readers who are even vaguely interested in baseball history undoubtedly know Hal Newhouser. He was a back-to-back MVP as a pitcher during wartime in the 1940s, and is a Hall of Famer (of marginal merit in my view). You can click on the link for his Baseball-reference.com page.After his playing career, Newhouser became a scout, eventually for the Astros. In the lead up to the 1992 draft, Newhouser insisted that the Astros draft Jeter. Newhouser, in fact, apparently discovered Jeter. The Astros passed, drafting Phil Nevin instead. Newhouser was so incensed that he quit. Nevin played 18 games for the Astros, before being traded to the Tigers and having a creditable career. So, what would have happened to the Astros had they drafted Jeter?? Yankee fans will no doubt confirm one of Newhouser's key bits of scouting on Jeter; namely that he was
A Big Thank You to our Readers 2007-07-18 09:43:00 Today we passed the 5,000 visit mark. To be honest, this surprised me; I thought we wouldn't get 5,000 visitors in a year! So, I just wanted to take the chance to say thanks to all of the readers. I hope we can continue to write articles that are worth reading, and i really hope that what we discuss here helps all of our readers do better in your fantasy games. Good luck!! Read more:Thank
More on Why the Large Deal is Poor Strategy 2007-07-17 08:11:00 More on why the big trade is usually poor strategy and a piecemeal approach should usually be preferred.In The Prince, Niccolo Machiavelli outlined two important principles on adaptability and flexibility. The first is that through foresight and forethought, especially in planning and preparation, the effect of chance can be minimized and the effect of skill maximized. The second is that most people are rarely prudent enough to adapt to what is happening around them. The person who has prospered previously by pursuing a particular strategy will rarely be persuaded that it is a good idea to reject it simply because their experience teaches them otherwise. These principles apply very succinctly to the "large trade."To refer back to my post on making the "Large Trade," I should point out that many of the trades on Jeremy's list of the worst trades in one of our leagues together are large trades. This is no coincidence; it is just too easy to go wrong. One cannot minimize risk and maximiz Read more:Strategy
The Latest Hardball Times Post 2007-07-17 08:09:00 Here is a link to my latest post. The text is below. In the America's Cup in 1983, Dennis Conner, captain of the U.S. entry Liberty, committed a fatal blunder, based on his failure to use a "follow-the-leader" strategy, leading to the first loss by America in that event. No, his blunder wasn't supporting Walter Mondale or betting the Mets to win it all. A key strategy in sailboat racing when you are the leader is to follow whatever the trailing boat does. In this way the trailing boat can never gain on you; if he has the wind you will also have it; if he doesn't, well neither will you, but he still cannot gain. This is a dominant strategy in game theory parlance; it is, in its simplest expression, a strategy that no matter what your opponent does, you always do at least as well, and sometimes better. So, when you have a dominant strategy it should be followed. In the America's Cup, Conner had a 3-1 lead and, in what should have been the final race, he kept his boat to the right of Read more:Times
Is There Hope For Ervin Santana? 2007-07-19 09:20:00 Demoted to the minors?? Not a pleasing development for his career. Has he really been that bad?
Though I traded him for Stephen Drew in the offseason in my high stakes league, I still loved Ervin and tried to get him in two of my other leagues. Sometimes what you think is bad luck turns out to be good luck; he has legitimately performed poorly. But there are significant elements of bad luck in Read more:Santana
Matt Kemp: Masher or Mirage? 2007-07-23 12:15:00 Matt looks at Kemp's recent power surge and gives a short and long term forecast.
Matthew Ryan Kemp. He's only 22, and he's raking right now:
AB HR R RBI SB SO BB AVG OBP SLG
115 6 23 23 3 27 9 .374 .416 .591
As a 21 year old Rookie in 2006, he slugged .448 in 154 at bats, with 7 home runs and 6 steals. That year, he stole 31 bases at 3 levels (including the 6
Forget DiMaggio and Cy Young; Here are Some REALLY Unbreakable Records 2007-07-23 05:51:00 Looking at some really crazy baseball records
On the heels of Barry Bonds inching closer to the all time HR record, I came across an old issue of The Baseball Research Journal #31 published by SABR. There was a very interesting and entertaining article on baseball records entitled baseball's Most Unbreakable Records
by Joe Dittmar. We often think of the most unbreakable record being DiMaggio's Read more:REALLY
Who The Heck is Kevin Cameron?? 2007-07-25 08:15:00 A relatively unknown relief pitcher for the Padres is lighting the Majors on fire. But the answer to the question above is: "perhaps the luckiest pitcher in the Majors."
Perusing the lists of the most extreme performances to date I came across a certain Padres relief pitcher whom I knew very little about; KevinCameron
. Right now he is looking more like Mariano Rivera and not an unknown
Even More Bad Statistical Analysis From My Favorite Podcaster 2007-07-27 08:18:00 Looking at an alleged "efficiency" statistic and why the advice is useless.
Regular readers know that one of my pet peeves is when self-proclaimed experts give bad advice. To be clear, I do not consider myself or our other contributors to be "experts" as I defined them here. We all strive to become experts, but there are very few. Some attain expert status by acclaim, but other foist it upon Read more:Statistical
, Analysis
, Favorite
Trading Brian McCann for a Closer-My First Trade of the Year and the Fait Accompli Strategy 2007-07-26 13:08:00 The first in a series analyzing my high stakes trades this year.
Robert Greene, in his book The 33 Strategies of War, calls the piecemeal strategy the Fait Accompli Strategy
. In support of this strategy he discusses the history of Charles DeGaulle's rise to power as the leader of Free France during World War II. In fact, Churchill and Roosevelt despised DeGaulle, but DeGaulle managed himself so Read more:Trading
, Brian
, McCann
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, Trade
Tacit Communication and its Role in Selecting and Evaluating Minor Leaguers 2007-07-30 08:58:00 The idea of "tacit communication" and its effect on the evaluation of Minor
Leaguers
As a follow up to the story of Hal Newhouser, there are very few scouts with the courage of their convictions. Too bad the Astros didn't realize it. Why is it though that most scouts tend to converge on a player? I previously touched on this in a prior column, but wanted to address another important principle at
The Busts of the Year 2007-07-30 08:02:00 Jeremy's analysis of the biggest busts this year, and he doesn't mean Pamela Anderson.
Question – what is slower than a Jamie Moyer fastball?
Answer – my blog updates.
So sorry, but needless to say that cleaning diapers and earning a living take much time away from ranting and raving about fake baseball. It takes lots of time to make snarky remarks that have small twinges of wit. I know…very Read more:Busts
Is Kevin Towers Reading This Blog?? 2007-08-02 08:07:00 Kevin Towers
made a series of small moves over the last few days, each of which made snall but noticeable gains to the Padres. Sounds like he read up on this blog....
The Padres should be commended for their dealings over the last few days. In a close NL West race, they made a series of small moves, each of which noticeably improved the team, and each of which essentially cost nothing. This is a Read more:Kevin
, Reading
Trade Deadline--The Rangers are the Big Winner--How Does Daniels Look Now?? 2007-08-01 07:41:00 Earlier I discussed Jon Daniels
performance after he was impugned by Peter Pascarelli. How has he done?? It appears he is a winner now. But there is reason for caution.
Here, I opined that Daniels performance at the trade deadline might be the make-or-break time in his career. This was noted by almost everyone so it wasn't exactly the most original comment. Now it looks like Daniels may have Read more:Trade
, Deadline
, Rangers
Trade number two in the Fait Accompli Strategy--Using Propaganda to Target a Player 2007-08-03 06:37:00 Analysis of the second of my trades this year in the high stakes league.
I have talked about this deal before, but had some more to say about it. After making the McCann trade, I then needed to do something about my AL power. Given that I was a contender, and had a weak AL power offense, I had to get a power bat.
As an aside, when going into the auction this year it was clear that there was Read more:Target
, Propaganda
, Strategy
, Trade
A Profile of Adam Jones 2007-08-07 08:01:00 What can be expected of top prospect Adam Jones??
Well, it's about damn time. In one of my leagues, (previously addressed here)which allows a team to keep players essentially forever, a few years ago we drafted Adam Jones. We have been patiently waiting for him to get called up.
Fantasy players all know that feeling; reading 800 different transaction sites and emails for even the slightest
Ichiro: Inching towards Immortality and possibly 4,000 hits?? 2007-08-06 08:20:00 What will Ichiro
's final career MLB numbers look like? Could Ichiro have gotten 4,000 hits had he played his entire career in the Majors?? The FantasyBaseballGenerals tinker with The Favorite Toy to attempt to answer these questions.
To say that Ichiro is a unique, one of a kind ballplayer is merely stating the obvious. A model of consistency at a very high level, Ichiro has posted over 200 hits
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