Technical view:It's been a whole month since EUR/USD stabilized under the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. The price entered this range on 8 January 2007 and, since then, the bulls are being held in place by the 1.3030 resistance (coinciding with the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement) and the all mighty 1.2900 support.Though EUR/USD has been range trading the past month, a pattern of higher highs and higher lows can clearly be seen - euro's bullish attitude.Fundamental view:We have no significant releases tomorrow either for euro or dollar until 13:30 GMT when the European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak at a press conference following the Governing Council's meeting in Frankfurt. The ECB Interest Rate Statement is void of commentary, so traders usually focus on Trichet's post-release press conference for clues about future rate decisions. Because these clues can sometimes be obscure, the market tends to experience heavy volatility during this press conference.Tradi
Technical view:GBP/USD is playing between the Fibonacci retracement lines. Support was reached on Friday and I expect some bullish days to come.Fundamental view:There will be some reports today affecting the GBP crosses: PPI Input & PPI Output at 9:30 GMT. Medium volatility expected.Trading advice for today, 12 February 2007:Intra day trading recommended only if going long. This way, you'll benefit from the longer trend bias. Also, open trades after the releases at 9:30 GMT, if a trend develops. It would be best if the reports are positive or at least neutral for the GBP, so the upward longer term is sustained.Trade suggestion:This is a longer term trade suggestion, could hold it beyond this week so carefully size your position.Long at 1.9500, SL@1.9450, TP@1.9680
Technical view:EUR/USD broke the strong 38.2 fib retracement support line today, escaping the range it was trapped since January. It climbed until 1.3150 which is the next support. Current price @ 1.3135.Fundamental view:Weaker than expected Retail Sales data fom the United States caused the break of the range trading.We have today some major releases also from the US:Empire State Business Conditions Index at 13:30 GMT (previous 9.1, forecast 10.5)Measures the general business conditions of manufacturers in New York State.Expect some serious USD bulls if numbers are over 11, as the USD is currently oversold.TIC Report (previous 68.4B, forecast 60.0B)The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Report measures foreign demand for US debt and assets. Strong demand tends to strengthen the dollar as foreigners convert their money in order to purchase US securities.I really don't see how this report can turn out good for the dollar considering the current global situation and sentiment for USD,
Technical view:Trading the breakout of the setup explained yesterday.Fundamental view:German PPI m/m at 7:00GMT - low volatility expectedFrance GDP q/q (r) at 7:45GMT - low volatility expectedFed Governor Bies Speaks at 15:30GMT - medium volatility expected; could set a trendTrading advice for today, 20 February 2007:Trade in the direction of the trend.Trade suggestion:Look to go long in the 1.3140 area, SL @ 1.3110, TP @ 1.3180.
