Can you smell a conflict of Interest? The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index is the benchmark the financial press uses in telling the people how much doom & gloom there is with the housing market. In 2007, nationwide home prices went down for the first time in decades (Miami was one of the first [...]
The Case-Shiller Index numbers were released yesterday and the 20 city index showed record declines again. The 15.3% change is the fifth largest ever recorded. The 10 city index showed an ever bigger decline of 16.3% and worst decline was in Miami with 26.7%.
The metropolitan area of Tampa represents Orlando and the rest of Central [...]
The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sal
The April Case-Shiller Index was released today. I'll create my graphs tonight; here is a preview of the data.UPDATE-From MarketWatch:Home prices across 20 major U.S. cities have dropped a record 15.3% in the past year and are now back to where they were in the summer of 2004, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.Prices in the 20 cities are now d
Despite the continuing declines in the Case-Shiller index, some economists still think that prices in certain cities have more decreases in store before hitting bottom. From a BuilderOnline.com article:As Cleveland goes, so goes the nation?That's one hopeful way of looking at the Case-Schiller Index, which tracks home prices in 20 major cities. The data for April, which were released this morning
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for April continues to reflect the extraordinary weakness seen in the nation’s housing markets with now ALL 20 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.Readers should take a moment to carefully reflect on the charts below as this lev
Portland home prices are down 4.7% while U.S. home prices have fallen 15.3%, according to today’s Case-Shiller report.The study covers a year’s time from April 2008 back to April 2007.Despite the near 5% drop, only two other cities, Charlotte & Dallas, are faring better. Portland was also one the few cities in the study to show positive appreciation from March of this year to April. Portland
The latest Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price index released today provided more horrible news for the housing market in the U.S. According to Reuters:
Home prices extend record slide in April: S&P
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. home prices extended their record slide in April, with every top metropolitan area now posting annual losses and many [...]
As I had highlighted in a prior post, because of their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic can be effectively used as a preview of the more popular monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.The current Radar Logic data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as April 21 appears to indic
Predicting future prices is a dangerous game. Trying to predict peak prices during a mania is like predicting the future behavior of an insane person. By definition their nature is not predictable and thus trying to determine what they’ll do tomorrow may be a fruitless exercise. Yet now that we are slowly [...]Related Posts:■How Many People Overpaid for Their Home in Los Angeles County?
The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sal
From the Oregonian:Portland-area prices for existing homes dipped further in March, registering a 4 percent year-over-year decline, according to the Case-Shiller index.The report shows Portland's home prices continue to follow a declining trend thatstarted last summer. The Case-Shiller index falls in line with local figures on new and existing homes from the Regional Multiple Listing Service. The
The S&P/Case-Shiller index for March 2008 is out, and shows a 14% pricing decline for the 20-city index during the first quarter of 2008 versus 2007. From an L.A. Times story: U.S. home prices continued to fall at a record pace through March, according to a major indicator released today. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. national home price index fell 14.1% in the first three mo
The S&P Case Shiller Index numbers were released today and it shows home prices across the country fell 14% which is the largest decline ever recorded. The index tracks 20 metropolitan areas to gain perspective on the housing market as a whole in the United States.
The Tampa metropolitan area represents Orlando and it showed a [...]
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for March continues to reflect the extraordinary weakness seen in the nation’s housing markets with now 19 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.Readers should take a moment to carefully reflect on the charts below as this level o
The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released today has nothing bad horrible news.
With the only exception of Charlotte, all the other 19 cities showed huge year over year declines. Some examples: Las Vegas -25.9%, Miami -24.6%, Phoenix -23%, Los Angeles -21.7%.
This is how the media reported the news.
USA Today:
Home prices tumble a record 14.1% in [...]
As I had highlighted in a prior post, because of their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic can be effectively used as a preview of the more popular monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices (released this Tuesday).The current Radar Logic data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as M
Yesterday we told you about LP3, the new album from Ratatat (make yo neck snap back, fool!). The album’s first single, “Shiller”, builds slow, mincing haunted-house keys with baroque harp and other blippity bloops. Picture Joanna Newsom (not singing, thankfully) in a spacesuit, inside the brain of Stephen King, and you’re close. Things get all [...]
As a disclaimer, before I start ranting in this post, I must say that I am not a fan of the Case Shiller Index. It’s not that I disagree with their statistics, or their method of collecting data or whatnot. In a previous post, I noted that:
…the thing that makes me think the numbers are [...]
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for February continues to reflect the extraordinary weakness seen in the nation’s housing markets with now 19 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.Furthermore, the decline to the 10 city composite index declined a record 13.55% as compared to February 2007 far surpassing the all prior year-over-year decline records firmly placing the current decline in uncharted territory in terms of relative intensity.This report indicates that we have now firmly entered the serious price “free-fall” phase (look at the charts below) of the housing bust.Topping the list of peak decliners was Las Vegas at -24.53%, Phoenix at -24.05%, S
Unfortunately, the bad housing numbers keep coming almost on a daily basis. Today, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index was released and, as expected, the news are grim. The index shows declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States worsened in February 2008, with 17 of the 20 now reporting MSAs [...]
The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sale.” Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).The first graph shows the year over year changes for the month of February 2008. The index consists of 20
This from Courant.com:
NEW HAVEN - Robert J. Shiller began a talk Tuesday by joking about his reputation for bearing bad news. Then he offered some: Housing prices nationwide could plunge more than the 30 percent fall from 1925 to 1933, the Yale economist said, invoking the dark days of the Great Depression.
“I think there’s a [...]
PDX Outsider asked me to add San Francisco to the real Case-Shiller Index. According to Case-Shiller the San Francisco metro area consists of 5 counties covering San Francisco, Oakland, and Freemont so I don't think this will really show the effects of restricting supply.
Here is a look at the Real Case-Shiller Index. Real numbers are adjusted for inflation; nominal numbers do not take inflation into account. Almost all the data we hear is nominal but real data gives us a better indication of how real estate as an asset class performs over time.I wanted to see how Portland and Seattle compare to bubble cities such as Los Angeles and San Diego and non-bubble cities such as Dallas and Charlotte. January 2000 equals 100 for all the indices. Click on the graph for a sharper image.Portland and Seattle certainly aren’t in as bad of shape as the California markets but I don’t think you can call us a non-bubble city.California is halfway through its correction and it looks like Portland will reach that point in mid 2008. Kind of interesting to see how Dallas an
The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sale.” Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).The first graph shows the year over year changes for the month of January 2008. The index consists of 20 c
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for January continues to reflect the tremendous weakness seen in the nation’s housing markets with now 19 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.Furthermore, the decline to the 10 city composite index declined a record 11.41% as compared to January 2007 far surpassing the all prior year-over-year decline records firmly placing the current decline in uncharted territory in terms of relative intensity.This report appears to indicate that we have now firmly entered the serious price “free-fall” phase (look at the charts below) of the housing decline.Topping the list of peak decliners was Detroit at -21.16%, San Diego at -2
It looks like Ald. Hellen Shiller, who represents the Uptown area - known for its rather artistic, bohemian culture - is rising to the defense of those tiny plastic bags. Will Chicago give up on its ban-wagon?
The S&P Case-Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a “repeat sale.” Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).The first graph shows the year over year changes for the month of December 2007. The index consists of 20
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for December continues to reflect tremendous weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 17 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and ALL metro areas showing substantial declines from their respective peaks.Furthermore, the decline to the 10 city composite index declined a record 9.82% as compared to December 2006 far surpassing the all prior year-over-year decline records firmly placing the current decline in uncharted territory in terms of relative intensity.This report appears to continue to indicate that during the fall we essentially entered the serious price “free-fall” phase (look at the charts below) of the housing decline.Topping the list of peak decliners are San Diego at -19.13%,
Robert Shiller wrote in a recent article for the NY Times, “WE have to consider the possibility that the housing price downturn will eventually be as big as that of the last truly big decline, from 1925 to 1933, when prices fell by a total of 30 percent. This crisis should be an occasion for some inspired thinking about fundamental changes in our real estate institutions. The actions that have already been taken are not impressive. The housing market is worsening, and more and more home owners are getting into trouble with their mortgages.”
He recalls the innovations made in the real estate industry during the Depression Era between 1925 and 1933 and calls for similar actions between private industry and government. He points out that we are dealing with the problems today with outdated policies that were created during the Depression 70 plus years ago and policies for Federal Home Loan Bank System, Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae, the appraisal system, and bankruptcy laws require
Somehow, I missed this story. Didn’t see it in the mainstream financial media, as it was probably deemed too gloom-and-doom to print. On November 18, ArabianBusiness.com talked about this year’s Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Week. At the gathering, Robert Shiller, the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University and author of the New York Times bestseller Irrational Exuberance, warned that a sharp downward correction is due in the global markets as real estate, stocks and energy soar to record highs. You may recall that in his bestselling book, Shiller waned that the U.S. stock market of the late nineties had become a bubble that would eventually pop. These past few years, he told anyone who would listen that the U.S. housing boom that came on the heels of the bust on Wall Street also shared the characteristics of a bubble.
According to the website, Dr. Shiller told attendees that while emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil continue to grow, sp
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for September continues to reflect significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 13 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now ALL metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.Topping the list of peak decliners are Detroit at -12.77%, Tampa at -11.74%, Miami at -11.13%, San Diego at -10.99%, Phoenix at -9.74%, Las Vegas at -9.08% and Washington DC at -8.92%.Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed accelerating declines slumping -6.03% for the 10 city national index and -5.28% for the 20 city national index on a peak comparison basis.Also, it’s important to note that Boston, having been cited as a possible example of price declines abating, has continued its decline dropping -3.18% on a year-over-year basis and a solid -6.42% from the peak set back in September 2005.As I had noted in prior posts, Boston has a strong degree of seasonality to its price
From AME InfoRobert Shiller, Stanley B Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University, warned that possible speculative bubbles in stock, real estate and oil markets could cause instability in the global economy.'Perhaps we have gotten a little too confident in the global economic growth. The problem is high oil, stock and real estate prices. There is a question about whether all this can be explained by low interest rates. This is a question that I can't authoritatively answer. But I believe that a substantial part is speculative bubble thinking. We have gotten too confident of the prices in these markets.''The unwinding of these markets is the most serious risk facing these markets today,' he said.In explaining his comments, he suggested that high oil prices are a concern for the world economy, since prices are at all-time or near all-time highs. He noted that although oil may play a smaller part of the global economy, this diminished impact is overstated, and so high oil prices
Today, I updated the S&P/Case-Shiller/Futures Tool to fix a few annoying bugs and to add functionality that allows for some new and really exciting data visualizations.For those who are unaware of the tools purpose, please read the tutorial for a detailed explanation but in short, the tool simply allows a user to chart any of the 22 S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices, adjusting elements like the date range and year-over-year changes, as well as simultaneously fusing the latest daily settled futures contract prices for the markets where futures are traded.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) supports the trading of futures based on the S&P/Case-Shiller home indices so by fusing the latest results of a given home price index to the latest daily settled contract price for the various contracts available, the tool allows you to essentially see into the future for home prices with, at the very least, the accuracy of a whole marketplace of futures traders.In an unexpected move,
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for August continued to show significant weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 15 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting year-over-year declines and now virtually ALL (except Charlotte NC which changed 0.0%) metro areas showing declines from their respective peaks.Topping the list of peak decliners are Detroit at -12.18%, Tampa at -10.57%, San Diego at -9.43%, Miami as -9.11%, Washington DC at -8.38%, Phoenix at -8.16% and Las Vegas at -7.65%.Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed accelerating declines slumping -5.28% for the 10 city national index and -4.53% for the 20 city national index on a peak comparison basis.Also, it’s important to note that Boston, having been cited as a possible example of price declines abating, has now again resumed its decline dropping -3.62% on a year-over-year basis and a solid -6.32% from the peak set back in September 2005.As I had noted in prior posts, Bos
There were a lot of revealing and informative video segments this week (and last) covering topics related to the housing-mortgage-credit turmoil, the outlook for the consumer and prospects for recession.Better yet, Realtor’s are now being lampooned in a whole raft of comedic segments on You Tube… I just love the information era!First, there was an interesting Greenspan appearance on The Daily Show where he suggests that the Fed acts as regulation on the “free” market and that although monetary policy is intended to keep prices stable, lowering interest rates can cause asset and general inflation.Watch Greenspan Comes Clean on BNN!Next up is a great Diana Olick segment covering the truly awful state of housing and general recession occurring in Michigan.Detroit home prices are down 32% with 1 foreclosure for every 29 homes. There has been a local subprime implosion and a recent auction saw homes being sold for the price of a new sofa! Could this be a harbinger of things to com
The most recent release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for July continued to show weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 15 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting significant declines.Topping the list of decliners on a year-over-year basis was Detroit at -9.69%, Tampa at -8.77%, San Diego at -7.78%, Phoenix at -7.30, Washington DC at -7.22%, Miami at -6.14% and Las Vegas at -6.14.Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed accelerating declines slumping -4.52% for the 10 city national index and -3.91% for the 20 city national index continuing the first negative slump in annualized appreciation seen since the early 90’s housing bust.To better visualize the results use the PaperEconomy S&P/Case-Shiller/Futures Charting Tool and be sure to read the Tutorial in order to best understand how best to utilize the tool.Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare ou
There were a lot of really great and informative video segments this week covering topics ranging from the Fed’s effectiveness and the outlook for inflation to regional accounts of housing stress to the forthcoming emergency actions by the federal government in response to the calamitous fall off in the housing and mortgage markets.First, in one of the numerous Greenspan interviews this week, the former Federal Reserve Chairman suggested that we are now beyond the era of favorable interest rates and further that the 10 year note will be heading up to 8%.Watch Greenspan Talk Doom on BNN!In an interview with a somewhat ornery but VERY informative Jim Rogers of Beeland Interests, Rogers suggests that the Fed is irrelevant in that they, in his view, generally move after market turmoil has occurred. Rogers also points out astutely that the current market conditions shouldn’t qualify as being termed a “crisis” the as all the major indexes are only 4% – 6% below their all time high
Here’s another new round of fairly calamitous forecasts from three of the most accurate economic prognosticators of our recent times.Keep in mind that the respective outlook of all three forecasters has not changed measurably in the last year or so and, in fact, it seems quite obvious now that they were among the very few who clearly envisaged the full breadth and depth of the housing decline and the spillover effects that it’s reversal would have on the economy as a whole.Peter “Dr. Doom” Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital joins CNN and CNBC to discuss the mortgage-housing crisis and its effects on the wider economy. Schiff points out that many of the subprime and toxic exotic loan borrowers were not victims but, in fact, speculators.As lending standards tighten, returning to normal, home prices will correct and home equity will “vanish” leading Schiff to predict that he is “100% certain that we are headed for a severe and prolonged recession” while also sugges
The most recent release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for June continued to show weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 15 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting significant declines.Topping the list of decliners on a year-over-year basis was Detroit at -11.01%, Tampa at -7.70%, San Diego at -7.30%, Washington DC at -6.96%, Phoenix at -6.55, Las Vegas at -5.09%, and Miami at -4.79%.Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed accelerating declines slumping -4.07% for the 10 city national index and -3.49% for the 20 city national index continuing the first negative slump in annualized appreciation seen since the early 90’s housing bust.To better visualize the results use the PaperEconomy S&P/Case-Shiller/Futures Charting Tool and be sure to read the Tutorial in order to best understand how best to utilize the tool.Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our
Yesterday’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for May continued to show weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 15 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting significant declines.Topping the list of decliners on a year-over-year basis was Detroit at -11.06%, San Diego at -6.96%, Tampa at -6.67, Washington DC at -6.34%, Phoenix at -5.55, Boston at -4.29% and Las Vegas at -4.10%.Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed accelerating declines slumping -3.38% for the 10 city national index and -2.83% for the 20 city national index continuing the first negative slump in annualized appreciation seen since the early 90’s housing bust.To better visualize the results use the PaperMoney S&P/Case-Shiller/Futures Charting Tool and be sure to read the Tutorial in order to best understand how best to utilize the tool.Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our current c
Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for April continued to show weakness for the nation’s housing markets with 14 of the 20 metro areas tracked reporting significant declines.Topping the list of decliners on a year-over-year basis was Detroit at -9.35%, San Diego at -6.70%, Washington DC at -5.70%, Tampa at -4.97 and Boston at -4.52%.Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed accelerated declines slumping -2.69% for the 10 city national index and -2.13% for the 20 city national index resulting in the first negative appreciation on an annual basis since the 1990-1991.To better visualize the results use the PaperMoney S&P/Case-Shiller/Futures Charting Tool and be sure to read the Tutorial in order to best understand how best to utilize the tool.Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline using
Case Shiller Housing Composite Flips Negative by Barry RiholtzBig Picture 3/27/07For first time in over a decade, the Case Shiller Housing Composite flipped negative; I'm sure this is utterly meaningless, and is nothing to worry about whatsoever: (sarcasm added, see the chart posted below)"January data released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices in the United States, shows home price composites plummeting into negative terrain.“The annual declines in the composites are a good indicator of the dire state of the U.S. residential real estate market,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “ The 10-City and 20-city Composites are both showing negative annual returns, a striking difference from the 15.1% and 14.7% returns they reported this time last year. The dismal growth in the 10-City composite is now at rates not seen since January 1994.”Unless the actual data matters to yo
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently published their list of "Real Estate's 25 Most Influential Thought Leaders" in which they generally heaped excessive accolades on an assortment of real estate industry insiders.
Certainly, there is no harm done in taking note of the "contributions" made by a few individuals and the "thought leader" jargon seems pretty fitting for an industry so steeped in sales and marketing but what is interesting is that in addition to the main list of 25, NAR has included 15 other people who've "had an impact" in 2006.
This list is a little different, including such names as Ben Bernanke, The US Department of Justice, and the Participatory Consumer.
So, it appears that, to NAR, there is no venue or press release that is immune from a cleverly positioned talking point.
Nothing demonstrates that better than the inclusion of Professor Robert Shiller in the list of 15 and the accompanying assessment of his contributions.
Why was R
