Payrolls

The November drop in employment figures in the U.S. is the biggest drop in 34 years and provides further extreme vindication of the perspective held at this website and by other prescient observers outside of the “mainstream” over the past 5 years-plus. The extreme decline in employment, representing the 11th straight month of job [...]

U.S. Non-Farm payrolls are expected to contract another 330K in November after falling 240K in the previous month, and may trigger a selloff in the dollar as labor conditions deteriorate further.Trading the News: US Change in Non-Farm PayrollsWhat’s Expected Time of release: 12/05/2008 13:30 GMT, 08:30 EST Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD Expected:

The dollar held firm ground overnight trading between 1.5446 and 1.5482. Yesterday’s data came out slightly better than expectations. Australian retail sales came out better than expected at 0.5%m/m versus a consensus of 0.3%m/m. Non-Farm Payrolls announcement is the highlight of the day.News and Events:The dollar held firm ground overnight trading between 1.5446 and 1.5482. Yesterday’s data came out slightly better than expectations: ISM manufacturing index was flat at 48.6, better than a decline. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, to 380,000 versus a consensus of 365,000. Core PCE prices rose 0.2%m/m, pointing to a possible aggressive Fed stance against inflation in the medium-term. The Non-Farm Payrolls announcement is the highlight of the day. The market is anticipating

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARYU.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was weaker on Friday as a result of a worse than expected Non-Farm Payrolls data release indicating employment fell by 80,000 in March, some 30,000 less than what was forecast. February’s figures were also revised to show a loss of 76,000 jobs rather than the 63,000 it originally reported, further indicating the world’s largest economy may be slipping into recession. Further to this news, the unemployment rate rose 0.3% to 5.1% its highest level in almost 3 years fuelling thoughts the Fed may cut rates yet again as early as the end of this month. The US share market had a mixed reaction to the weak economic data with the NASDAQ rising 7.68 points (0.3%) and the Dow Jones falling -16.61 points (-0.1%). Oil prices gained US$2.40 a barrel

LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures turned lower on Friday after more jobs were shed in March than economists had predicted, setting the stage for further worries about the health of the world’s largest economy. Stock futures that had rallied going into the report turned lower on a dime. S&P500 futures fell 2.5 points to 1,370.90, Nasdaq 100 [...]

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARYU.S. Dollar Trading (USD) paired much of it recent gains as Fed Chairman Bernanke noted further declines in the world’s largest economy would continue to contract in the first half of 2008, conceding for the first time the likelihood of recession. In other news, ADP employment reports for the month of March grew by 8k jobs well above forecasts of -48k (Previous: -23k), prompting traders to foresee a better Non Farm Payrolls release come Friday. However any further gains were limited following Bernanke’s dovish comments where “it appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly." In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was up by 15.97 points (+0.18%) whilst the Dow Jones fell by

The US dollar extended its weakness against the Euro, British pound and Japanese Yen as traders begin to shift their focus to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Tomorrow we are expecting a number of leading indicators for non-farm payrolls including the Challenger Layoff report, the ADP employment survey and service sector ISM, which should be a big market mover. If service sector ISM fails to recover, there is a decent chance that we will see a particularly horrid non-farm payrolls number on Friday. Fed officials are also dueling it out on inflation which suggests that the Beige Book report, which will also be released tomorrow could focus primary on growth. Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin believes that the US economy faces grave risks and inflation pressures would abate because of tha

Last week was a particularly miserable week for the greenback as it lost significant ground all across the board and it slipped to another new all time low against the EUR. The dollar weakness was mainly being driven by the Fed interest rate cut and by the uncertainty surrounding the US economy. The main concern at the moment surrounding the U.S economy is that the rising oil prices and the falling home values will inevitably lead to a recession. Therefore the Fed lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% in order to stave off this scenario. However a continued policy of monetary expansion by the Fed will revive inflationary concerns, so at the moment the greenback seems to be finely balanced on a double edged sword. The negative sentiment surrounding the greenback was so strong last week that even a significant upside surprise by the Non-farm Payrolls report on Friday was unable to provide the fledgling U.S currency with some reprieve. The strong NFP report was overshadowed by fears of

Yesterday we could notice that the U.S. dollar was down against most of the other major currencies. The continuing trend of the depreciation of the US doll still seems to be very strong and as is forecasted by many traders, this move should go much further. The US market sufferd yesterday from additional turbulences in its economy, after the publication of very important indexes which easily influence the US economy and its currency, indexes such as: Personal Spending, Personal Income, Unemployment Claims, and Manufacturing Index. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index chopped down to 50.9 in October, the lowest in seven months since March, from 52 in September and less than economists anticipated. This result of the manufacturing sector in October suggested that continuing troubles in the housing and credit markets have seeped into the industrial sector. The imports index fell below 50 for the first time in nearly six years, suggesting that manufacturers have begu

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10 SEPTEMBER 2007 (00:30GMT)U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased to 15 year lows against a basket of currencies as Non Farm Payrolls for the month of August declined for the first time in four years, by 4k jobs. Poor jobs data added to the notion that the U.S. economy may be heading into a recession placing pressure on an interest rate cut. Markets are now pricing in a 74 percent chance that the Fed slashes its 5.25 percent benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point when it meets on Sept 18. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down -48.62 points (-1.86%) whilst the Dow Jones also tumbled by -249.97 points (-1.87%). Crude oil gained on a broadly weaker USD, up by US$0.41 a barrel to US$76.71.The Euro (EUR) gained against the USD following poor payrolls data, which pushed the greenback lower across the board. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low 1.3663 and a high of 1.3799 before closing the day at 1.3789 in the New York session.The Japanese Yen (JPY) lo

EUR/USD spiked high almost reaching 1.3800 level as the U.S. nonfarm payrolls for the August decreased by 4,000. Nonfarm payrolls is one of the most important measures for the employment market of the United States, which in its turn serves as the indicator of the economy health. A fall by 4k is the lowest monthly value since 2003. This is certainly a bad sign for the overall U.S. economy, which

The dollar fell versus the euro after a report showed U.S. mortgage delinquencies reached a record in the second quarter. The U.S. currency weakened against 15 of the 16 most- actively traded currencies as the data also showed sales of previously owned homes probably will fall this year to the lowest since 2002. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation risks still ``lie on the upside'' after the ECB and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. ``The euro zone still looks strong, while there's nothing to get excited about in the U.S. economy,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at currency-trading company Tempus Consulting in Washington. ``That will weigh on the dollar.''The dollar fell after the report showed the share of all U.S. mortgages entering foreclosure rose to 0.65 percent in the second quarter, an all-time high, from 0.58 percent in 2007's first three months. The percentage of sub prime borrowers making late pay

Play Video Jobs Report Numbers Out: Hourly Earnings Up 0.3%, Manufacturing Payrolls Down 2K, Average Weekly Hours of 33.8, Nonfarm Payrolls Up 92K, Unemployment Rate Stays at 4.6% Bloomberg-Clip - (BLOOM-Clip) Aug. 03, 2007. 08:00 AM EST Reaction with Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading and Maury Harris of UBS Securities Subprime Implosion, Subprime Mortgage Industry, Todays Economy ---Related Articles at Consumer Mortgage Reports:Recession Concerns -Subprime SlimeDollar Drops on SubprimePrices Tick Up Amongst Subprime Mortgage WoesSubprime Fallout Contained: Concerns Are Overdone - With a Small Overall ImpactNovaStar Mortgage Is The Next Subprime Victim Or 'Evolving'?Standard & Poor Cuts Bear Stearns Debt Rating Outlook

Even though non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, the sell-off in the US dollar has been limited. Why was there such odd price action in the greenback? Two reasons. The first is the lack of interest in trading today. London traders were focused on squaring up ahead of their 3 day weekend while Japanese and Chinese traders have been out all week. Volume has been thin and because of that, the EUR/USD has not found enough buyers to push it beyond 1.3600. The second is the implications of the data on interest rates. Although the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates next week, they are expected to adjust their FOMC statement. Unfortunately with gasoline prices above $3 a gallon and moving higher, Team Bernanke will probably continue to put inflation ahead of growth. They will look at the sharp drop in jobless claims yesterday and argue that the labor market will most likely improve in the months to come. However we will need to see jobless claims remain

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYG00053420070307This isn't the first time ADP is sharply below conensus estiamates for the government's non farm payrolls data due on Friday. Who are you going to to believe? hmmm.95,000 is actually the latest consensus estimate for this Friday's government number. While ADP and the government's data can be at odds, one thing is certain, even the government's data has showed a drop off in jobs creation in recent months.The 10 year treasury has drifted higher by 3/32nds. Next data point is Fed Beige book early this afternoon.